Highlights

Bimb Research Highlights

Author: kltrader   |   Latest post: Mon, 16 Jul 2018, 04:29 PM

 

Digi.com - Primed for a strong year

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Mon, 16 Jul 2018, 04:29 PM


Special note: Digi adopted the new MFRS 15 accounting standard in FY18. As there are no retrospective adjustments for FY17 figures our review is based on pre-MFRS 15 figures.

  • 2Q18 core earnings rose 8% qoq and 7% yoy while 1H18 was up 1% owing to service revenue growth and cost optimisation.
  • 1H18 core earnings were ahead of ours and consensus at 54% and 52% respectively, largely on better cost optimization achieved.
  • A second interim DPS of 4.9 sen was declared, bringing 1H18 DPS to 9.8 sen which implies 99% payout.
  • Digi retuned to the Shariah stocklist in May 2018. We resume coverage with a BUY call and RM4.85 DCF-derived TP.

Primed for a strong year

After a weak 1Q18 results, it surprised with a strong 2Q18 performance. The postpaid segment (+5% qoq, +15% yoy) continues to drive service revenue growth on strong data revenue; it also saw subscriber net adds (+84k qoq, +363k yoy). Cost optimisation remains key; EBITDA margin expanded to 46.8% yoy (+1.5ppts qoq, +0.6ppts yoy). Core earnings growth was also aided by lower depreciation & amortisation (D&A) charge with re-assignment of 2100MHz spectrum for the next 16 years.

Cost containment paying off and more to come

Aside from lower D&A charge, cost optimisation in prior years have started to pay off handsomely. Digitisation efforts saw lower marketing expense (-17% yoy) while renegotiated SLAs (some retired) in prior years led to lower maintenance cost (-7% yoy). Such is the savings, Digi incurred a one-off expense worth RM39.6m in 2Q18 to restructure its network operating model. Management expects better synergies from this restructuring effort which also matches the data-led and digital platform revenue model that it increasingly adopts.

Upgrades on improved expectations

Management tweaked its 2018 guidance which now expects flat service revenue (from 2017) and EBITDA margin sustained at 46-47% (Table 1). The 1H18 performance exceeded ours and consensus estimates mainly on better-than-expected service revenue growth and cost optimisation achieved. We raised our FY18-20F earnings by 2-9% while carrying out some minor housekeeping on our numbers. Still, we are cautious over the sector’s broader outlook albeit Digi’s lean operations would best serve the dynamic industry demands.

Resume with a BUY, RM4.85 TP

Digi made it back into the Shariah-compliant stocklist as at 25 May 2018 after addressing its conventional debt level. We resume coverage with a BUY and DCF-derived TP of RM4.85 (from: HOLD, RM4.70) based on 5.7% WACC, 0.5% terminal growth. Our TP implies 24.7x FY18F PE, lower than 26x PE previously implied. While cost optimisation has been very encouraging, we are cautious over possible intense competition.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 16 Jul 2018

Labels: DIGI
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Economics - Malaysia - Stable Distributive Trade in May

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Fri, 13 Jul 2018, 05:17 PM


  • Distributive trade grew by 7.0% yoy in May
  • Motor vehicles dropped by -3.1% yoy
  • Wholesale trade and retail trade grew by 7.8% yoy and 9.3% yoy respectively
  • Stronger retail sales for key economies
  • Higher sales growth expected in 2018

Distributive trade grew by 7.0% yoy in May, marginally lower than 7.5% rise in the previous month. However, the sales value climbed above RM100bn and stood at RM103.7bn in May, higher than RM96.9bn registered in the corresponding period of last year. The sales value comprises of wholesale trade (RM50.5bn), retail trade (RM40.9bn) and motor vehicles (RM12.3bn) businesses.

The stable growth in May was supported by wholesale trade (May: 7.8%; Apr: 7.6%) and retail trade (May: 9.3%; Apr: 7.9%). In contrast, motor vehicles dropped 3.1% yoy in May after registered a highest pace of growth, 6.3% in the last month.

On monthly basis, the distributive trade rebounded to 3.9% in May, after fell by 3.9% in April. The increase was supported by all businesses; wholesale trade (4.0%), retail trade (4.5%) and motor vehicles (1.8%).

Stronger retail sales for key economies

Looking at the retail trade of other countries, Indonesia’s retail sales grew 8.3% yoy in May, following a 4.1% rise in the previous month. It was the steepest increase in retail trade since December 2016. Retail sales in Singapore edged up marginally in May, with growth constrained partly by lower motor vehicle sales. May's retail takings were up 0.1% yoy, and excluding motor vehicles, the rise was more significant, at 2.2% yoy. US retail trade rose by 0.8% mom in May, following an upwardly revised 0.4% advance in April. It was the steepest increase in retail trade since November. On yearly basis, retail trade grew 5.9% in May, compared with a 4.8% rise in April. The Eurozone's retail trade rose 1.4% yoy, following a downwardly revised 1.6% growth in April. China's retail sales increased by 8.5% yoy in May, moderating from the 9.4% expansion registered in April. It was the weakest reading since June 2003, due to seasonal factors leading to delayed consumption. Meanwhile, annual growth in Japanese retail sales slowed in May to its lowest in seven months. The 0.6% yoy increase in retail sales in May was weaker than the revised 1.5% increase in April. May's result marked the slowest growth since a 0.2% decline last October.

Higher sales growth expected in 2018

Retail sales in Malaysia rose by 9.3% yoy in May, after a downwardly revised 7.9% gain in the prior month. It was the strongest growth in retail sales since January. We perceive the recent initiatives announced by the government, such as the zero rated GST, as being good for consumers. The abolishment of GST could also mean good news for manufacturers and retailers, with consumer spending intentions likely to rise, which could result in increased sales. Many retailers have been providing consumers with discounts even before the zerorated GST was officially implemented to encourage consumers not to postpone their festive spending to after 1 June. With these value-for-money promotions, we can expect to see an increase in sales volume compared to previous years.

The Malaysia Retailers Association (MRA) forecasts retail sales to be 5.3% for 2018, an improvement from the 4.7% growth in its March survey, boosted temporarily by the zero GST in June. According to the MRA, for 1Q18, the Malaysia retail industry recorded a belowthan-expected growth rate of 2.6% in retail sales versus the 3.1% in 4Q17. Retail sales are expected to recover by 2Q18 with an average growth rate of 6.0% has been projected, boosted by consumers’ confidence level and increase their willingness to spend. Meanwhile, the Retail Group Malaysia adjusted the 2Q18 retail growth rate from 3.7% to 6.3%. The retail sale growth rate for 3Q18 has also been revised from 5.2% to 6.8%.

Since Malaysians will now enjoy a tax holiday, as the GST’s replacement - the Sales and Services Tax (SST) - will only be reintroduced on September 1, we expect that there will be a significant boost in consumer spending and consumer optimism, as well as business profits. Major purchases are expected to have been made from June to August of this year as consumers’ purchasing power is expected to improve after the GST is zero-rated, leading to a significant multiplier effect within the domestic economy. With no tax being paid on the goods and services in the three-month period, we are likely to see more spending power among the consumers. For 2018, consumers are projected to enjoy a stronger rebound growth as the abolishment of GST is expected to spur consumer spending. Private consumption which accounted for more half of Malaysian economy will be the primary engine for growth this year due to the expected improvement in sentiments among the consumers amidst lower inflation rate.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 13 Jul 2018

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Economics - Cointegration between indices and macroeconomic variables

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Fri, 13 Jul 2018, 05:14 PM


  • The importance of the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables are important
  • Many empirical studies in general conclude that the macroeconomic variables play a major role in influencing the stock return
  • Macroeconomic variables are good indicators to make predictions on stock market movements
  • We examine the response of the Malaysian stock market on selected macroeconomic variables using the ARDL bounds test

Equity prices, considered as the most firmly watched prices of companies’ assets, can easily fluctuate throughout trading days as they are very susceptible to changes in the stock market. Factors such as high volatility or irregular developments can cause adverse implications for the economy while uncontrolled volatility may keep the smooth working of financial market and unfavourably influence the performance of the economy. Stock market volatility rises during financial crisis and causes stock prices to plunge especially in developing markets.

Understanding the empirical relationship between the macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors in the variation of stock market performance can be very useful to the market practitioners and policy makers. In fact, the importance of the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables are important and was clearly illustrated by previous studies either from a theoretical or empirical perspective. In general, the value of the shares depends on the psychology of investors as the investors cannot predict the movement of stock prices in present or in future based on historical (past) stock price only. Since the stock prices is a fast-moving variable, therefore understanding the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic factors is necessary to the market participant in managing their investment portfolio, in terms of the risk and return relationship. This due to the fact that, any information in the market will be observed immediately in the market, and therefore it is expected that the movement of stock prices is very sensitive to the market news. There have been a significant number of empirical studies that modelled the relationship between stock market performance and real economic activities such as money supply, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation.

The behaviour of the stock market can be traced back by two competing theories in portfolio analysis namely Markowitz mean-variance analysis and the capital market model. Markowitz proposed the mean-variance analysis in explaining the risk and return relationship of the portfolio. Generally, there are two types of risk namely unsystematic and systematic risk in holding the asset. The unsystematic risk can be removed by diversification, whereas the systematic risk cannot be removed by diversification. In contrast, Sharpe have developed the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in understanding the behaviour of the security return and argued that the market risk is the sole factor in explaining the security return, in which the sensitivity of the security return to market return is shown by the Beta. Since then, the financial economist has extended the capital market model because the market return itself is not enough in explaining the behaviour of the equity return.

Many empirical studies in examining the determinants of equity return have been done in the developed and emerging stock market, and the results in general conclude that the macroeconomic variables play a major role in influencing the stock return. In Malaysia context, most of the previous study in modelling the determinants of the stock price has used macro-level data and in general, the results found that there is a co-movement or long run relationship between economic activity and the stock market. This finding signal that the macroeconomic indicators are the main factor that can influence the performance of the stock market.

Investors generally believe that macroeconomic activities give a large impact to the volatility of the stock prices. Macroeconomic determinants can be a yardstick to the investors to forecast the performance of the stock market, as well as a perfect alternative to get additional information about the behaviour of the stock market. This is due to the nature of the stock markets that tend to be sensitive to circumstances like the transition level of economic activities. The nature of macroeconomic forces does provide some significant positive as well as negative effect, on the stock market performance reflected from the behaviour of the variable itself.

Other than financial variables, macroeconomic variables such as interest-rate term structures, inflation rates and money supply are good indicators to make predictions on stock market movements because they affect future consumption and investment. Hence, these variables are commonly used to predict future economic events that may affect the stock market. If stock returns can be predicted by macroeconomic variables which are publicly available, then investment decisions can be made by utilising past macroeconomic information. This exploitable opportunity would benefit market participants in formulating market-timing strategies. Meanwhile, macroeconomic variables selected to predict stock market movements often differ slightly across studies but traditional macroeconomic variables that are often selected are interest rates, inflation rates, money supply and industrial production.

The capitalisation of the Malaysian stock market has expanded and reached RM1.13 trillion as at end-Mar 2018 from RM0.8 trillion in 2010. The average trading activity also rose in 2018 with a daily average trading volume of 108.1 million units and trading value of RM956.6 million. The Malaysian domestic stock prices were relatively resilient although there were uncertainties in the global financial market. With stable growth in the past few years, the Malaysian stock market is expected to play a major role in a global financial market, thus providing an attractive investment opportunity for foreign investors. However, fundamental investors will not invest without looking at all the macroeconomic variables that influence the country's economic development to forecast future trends of stock returns and invest accordingly.

This study examines the response of the Malaysian stock market on selected macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate and exchange rate over the period 2010 to 2018 (end-March). By using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, this study documented the presence of a long-run relationship between the performance of the stock indices in FBMKLCI and FBMSH as well as indices of selected sectors such as plantation, finance, consumer and industrial production and economic activity. We believe that the macroeconomic variables used here are reflective of the general economic and financial status of Malaysia.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 13 Jul 2018

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Malaysia Economy - IPI growth and manufacturing sales moderates in May

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Fri, 13 Jul 2018, 05:11 PM


  • May IPI eased to 3.0% yoy; recovered to 3.1% mom
  • Moderation production in manufacturing and contraction in mining sector
  • Manufacturing sales moderated in May
  • Productivity slowed to 3.8% yoy
  • Global semiconductor posted highest ever monthly sales in May
  • Global industrial production remains intact
  • Trade uncertainties could pose challenging second half to production and trade

Moderate industrial production in May

Malaysia’s industrial production index (IPI) eased to 3.0% yoy in May after posting a 4.6% rise in the previous month. It is the weakest growth in industrial output since February, as production grew at a slower pace for manufacturing (May: 4.1%; Apr: 5.3%) and electricity (May: 2.6%; Apr: 5.8%). In addition, mining output declined by 0.5%, reversing from a 1.8% rise in a month earlier. On monthly basis, the IPI recovered to 3.1% yoy in May from -3.5% in the preceding month. The improvement in monthly production was buttressed by all sectors which shows a favourable increase in manufacturing (May: 3.2%; Apr: -2.1%), mining (May: 3.1%; Apr: -8.2%) and electricity (May: 2.5%; Apr: -1.2%).

Moderation production in manufacturing and contraction in mining sector

The slower industrial production in May was mainly due to the moderation of output in manufacturing sector. The slower growth in manufacturing production in May was dragged by an easing broad-based output from the major subsectors namely electrical and electronic equipment products (May: 4.8%; Apr: 7.1%), petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (May: 3.7%; Apr: 4.0%) and non-metallic mineral products, basic metals and fabricated metal products (May: 5.0%; Apr: 5.1%). As manufacturing sector accounted 68.25% of the total weightage of the industrial production index for 2015 base year, it gives major impact to the overall industrial production growth in Malaysia.

Furthermore, the production in mining sector contracted by -0.5% yoy in May from 1.8% in the preceding month. The decrease was triggered by the decline in natural gas index (May: - 4.8%; Apr: -0.4%). Nevertheless, crude oil index rose by 4.7%.

Besides manufacturing sector, production by electricity sector also grew at a slower pace in May as compared to the month earlier (May: 2.6%; Apr: 5.8%). The growth in May was even less than half of the last month’s growth.

Manufacturing sales eases in May

Manufacturing sales in May eased to 5.5% yoy from 8.2% yoy increase in the previous month. The manufacturing sector recorded a sales value of RM65.3bn in May, with an increase of RM3.4bn as compared to RM61.9bn reported a year ago. The growth for the month was impelled by the increase in E&E products (May: 7.5%; Apr: 13.9%), petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (May: 6.8%; Apr: 6.3%), and non-metallic mineral products, basic metal & fabricated metal products (May: 4.3%; Apr: 0.7%).

On monthly basis, the sales value declined 0.2% (RM0.1bn) as compared with the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted mom, the sales value in May 2018 shows no changes (Apr: 5.1%).

Manufacturers added more workers during the month as reflected in the hiring of workers where total employees engaged in the manufacturing sector in May was 1,070,000 persons, an increase of 1.7% or 18,077 persons as compared to 1,051,923 persons in May 2017. On monthly basis, the number of employees grew by 0.06% as compared to 1,069,410 persons in the previous month.

Salaries & wages paid in May 2018 grew marginally lower to 10.0% yoy (RM346.8m). When compared to the previous month, the total amount paid in May 2018 decreased -0.4% (RM14.7m) to register RM3.8bn. The average salaries & wages paid per employee registered RM3,562 in May 2018, a rise of 8.2% yoy and a decrease of 0.4% mom.

Productivity or average sales value per employee in May 2018 grew by 3.8% yoy. On monthly basis, it contracted by -0.3% mom to register RM61,071.

Global semiconductor posted highest ever monthly sales in May

According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global sales of semiconductors reached USD38.7bn for the month of May, an increase of 21.0% yoy and 3.0% mom. The global semiconductor market has posted consistent growth of greater than 20.0% for 14 consecutive months, and May 2018 marked the industry’s highest-ever monthly sales. Higher sales were recorded across all major regional markets and all semiconductor product categories.

Global industrial production remains intact

Industrial production in the US increased 3.5% yoy in May, following an upwardly revised 3.6% rise in April. It is the lowest annual growth rate in industrial output in four months. China's IPI rose by 6.8% yoy in May, following a 7.0% gain in the previous period as production increased at a slower pace for manufacturing (May: 6.6%; Apr: 7.4%). In contrast, Japan’s IPI increased 4.2% yoy in May.

Regionally, the industrial production remained stabled in May. Industrial production in Singapore expanded 11.1% yoy in May, higher than the 9.1% yoy expansion registered a month ago. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output grew 9.8% yoy (-1.2% mom SA) in May. The electronics cluster continued on an expansionary path for the 27th consecutive month and gained 17.1% yoy in May. Industrial production in Thailand rose by 3.2% yoy, following a downwardly revised 3.1% growth a month earlier.

Trade uncertainties could pose challenging second half to production and trade

Industrial production growth eased to 3.0% yoy in May. Exports also grew considerably slower by 3.4% yoy in May after surging 14.0% in the preceding month. Slowdown in Malaysia’s external trade activities particularly domestic exports derails overall IPI, factory output and also manufacturing sales.

Forward-looking indicators suggest choppy to slower industrial production and export growth in 2H18. Global manufacturing PMI continues to slide while emerging market risks escalate amid mounting trade tensions and higher global interest rates. Malaysia’s latest manufacturing PMI suggests lacklustre manufacturing demand.

At this juncture, it is really important to be cautious with what is happening in the US trade policies. We are watchful of the potential negative spillovers from the US-China trade tensions. Although there are potential areas that Malaysia may benefit due to the diversion of trade flows, the broader picture remains negative should more countries resort to retaliatory tariffs.

Following China’s tit-for-tat response to US trade tariffs of 25% on USD34bn worth of Chinese imports which took effect on 6 July, US President Trump returned the serve by instructing the US Trade Representative to release a new round of 10% tariffs on new list of Chinese goods valued at USD200bn. The new tariffs are not immediate as the public consultation process is set to take place until 30 August. If the latest tariff proposal does take effect, then Trump’s administration will have implemented tariffs on nearly half of US’ imports from China.

Risk of trade tensions escalating into a “trade war” has definitely increased with the latest US’ actions which came quickly after the first round of tariffs just went into effect on 6 July, indicating that Trump has not budged on his tough stance on China. While there still remains hope for some resolution instead of further spiralling trade measures, the outlook has become more uncertain. Such policy response would ultimately induce uncertainties among the business communities. As such, the external demand in the 2H18 looks increasingly challenging.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 13 Jul 2018

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Telekom Malaysia - New products for New Malaysia

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Fri, 13 Jul 2018, 05:06 PM


  • TM shed some light on its product line up which is in accordance with the government’s initiative for higher broadband speeds at lower price and better reach.
  • The new products, unifi basic and unifi mobile postpaid, would debut over Jul and Aug 2018 while progressive speed upgrades for existing streamyx and unifi users are from Jul and Aug 2018.
  • Despite these, we view TM’s near- to mid-term outlook remains tepid amidst competitive industry landscape and constraints to invest in its convergence aspirations.
  • Maintain HOLD with lower TP of RM3.60. While its convergence aspiration is an edge for TM over its peers in the long run, we believe near term earnings risks are inherent.

New products for New Malaysia

TM launched two new products – unifi basic and unifi mobile postpaid. The former is an entry-level broadband-only plan, solely for the B40 segment (ie. household income <RM4,500/mth) with speeds of up to 30Mbps and 60GB monthly data cap. Pre-registration begins in 15 Jul and services to be rolled out from Aug 2018. The unifi mobile prepaid debuted at the time of writing (ie. 12 Jul) at RM99/mth with unlimited data; it is only available to existing unifi/streamyx users, in tandem with TM’s convergence/triple play offering.

More than double the speed

For existing users, product prices remain unchanged while speeds would be upgraded by up to 10x (ie. 300-800 Mbps) for unifi users and by up to 2x (ie. 100 Mbps) for pre-unifi (ie. Streamyx) users. Effectively this more than halve the price paid per Mbps. The upgrades would be rolled out in stages from 15 Aug 2018 onwards.

Our thoughts

We are mixed on this development. The positives: TM retains product prices, limiting ARPU dilution while unifi basic broadens its reach to new segments. TM has over 2 mil broadband subs of which 1 mil are on unifi, including 800k home users. The negatives: government intervention may curtail its investment strategy to grow unifi mobile and strengthen its convergence proposition. Limited B40-area coverage could see more resources channelled to enhance connectivity albeit take up rate may be limited amidst rising living costs and competitive mobile data plans. TM recently lowered earnings and capex guidance for 2018 (Table 1).

Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of RM3.60

Maintain HOLD with a lower DCF-derived TP of RM3.60 (from RM3.90) which implies an FY18F PE of 21.9x. Our target price reduction is on the back of higher beta (1.35 from 1) ascribed to reflect inherent risk to its near- to medium-term outlook.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 13 Jul 2018

Labels: TM
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Economics - BNM maintains OPR at 3.25%

Author: kltrader   |  Publish date: Wed, 11 Jul 2018, 05:11 PM


  • BNM holds OPR at 3.25%
  • MPS maintained neutral tone
  • Economy expected to remain on a steady growth
  • BNM has ample room to stand pat

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.25% at its fourth monetary policy meeting this year as growth remains firm and inflationary pressures weakened after the new government removed a much-maligned Goods and Services Tax (GST).

BNM has ample room to stand pat

In the first policy meeting chaired by new Governor, Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus, BNM kept its key interest rate at 3.25%. Low inflation and the need to support growth in deteriorating global trade environment were the reasons for the central bank to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Malaysia’s domestic fundamentals still provide room for BNM to stand pat. In its statement the central bank said “the Malaysian economy is expected to remain on a steady growth path”. A looming trade war between the US and China could see some slowdown in some sectors. For now, growth forecasts remain solid at over 5.0% for this year. Although there is a risk of the trade war worsens, we are maintaining our 2018 growth forecast of 5.3%.

Inflation has turned out to be a lot more benign than what the central bank had predicted. For the first five months, CPI increased by 1.7% compared to 4.1% in the same period last year. As such, the prevailing inflation rate trajectory is lower than the 2018 forecast. The zero-rated GST should translate into lower inflation in the 2H18. Additionally, the provision of fuel subsidy would keep a lid on petrol prices for the rest of the year. We expect headline inflation to moderate to 2.0% in 2018 (2017: +3.7%). The lower inflation expectation was premised on the reinstatement of fuel subsidies, lower prices amid the zero-rating of the GST and a persistently weak food price growth trajectory. Withholding the impact of the SST’s implementation for now until more definite details are available, we will closely monitor the development of the regime to assess the expected full-year inflation rate for 2018 as there is a likelihood that inflation may come in even lower than our forecast for this year.

Further, the ringgit has fared better than its peers amid an emerging market sell-off supported by higher oil prices which have bolstered inflows and strengthened the currentaccount surplus. The ringgit is up about 0.4% against the USD this year, compared with a 7.0% slump in the Philippine peso and a 5.8% decline in the Indonesian rupiah. The ringgit will continue following a broader market tone but with a lower volatility as the nation’s massive current account surplus and bouncing oil prices provide a buffer amid portfolio outflows.

With the external environment becoming increasingly uncertain, the BNM maintained status quo on monetary policy. At the current interest rate, BNM said that “the degree of monetary accommodativeness is consistent with the intended policy stance”.

Benign inflation, steady strong growth, and a resilient ringgit prevent the need for the BNM to follow the Fed's policy tightening. Despite the recent rate hikes by some of the regional central banks like Indonesia, the Philippines and India in a move to address inflation and capital outflow we feel that BNM can maintain the current OPR at 3.25% throughout 2018 to support the domestic economy.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 11 Jul 2018

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