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James的股票投资James Share Investing

Author: James Ng   |   Latest post: Thu, 19 Apr 2018, 12:43 PM

 

[转贴] [价值投资理念] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

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[价值投资理念]

价值投资理念就是买入市价低于内在价值的股票。聪明的投资者,就算所买入的股票泰山崩于前,也具有面不色变的定力;等调整期过后,股价再爬上高位,就能在股市中获利。为什么90%的散户在股市中亏钱?因为他们贪念多,明知是危险投机欲还是要冒险买投机的股票;这与从不抱有佼幸心理,紥紥实实研究企业真实价值,耐心长期持股,一旦达到预期的价位便毫不犹豫地卖掉的聪明投资者相比,是不同的。巴菲特看重稳健投资,绝不做“没有把握的事情”。多数人因为不具备超常的心理承受力和敏锐的判断力,所以更喜欢稳健紥实的投资方略。

巴菲特在投资时,对于锁定的几个企业,首先会对公司的长期经济特性大量评估,然后评估公司经理人的素质,最后,在价格合适时,大量买进。他总是坚守:1,坚定地投资于那些有信心并有所了解的公司,即业务相对简单,稳定的公司;2,强调买入价格的安全边际--巴菲特视此为成功投资的基石。1966年春,美国股市欣欣向荣,巴菲特所买的各种股票都在飞涨,但巴菲特欲不安,担心很难再找到符合他的标准的廉价股票了。股市狂涨,巴菲特欲不为所动,因为他坚定地认为股票的价格应以企业业绩成长为基础,而不是凭籍金钱投机炒作。

1968年5月,当股市凯歌高奏,一片繁荣的时候,巴菲特通知合伙人说他要隐退了。随后,他逐渐清算了巴菲特合伙人公司几乎所有的股票。1969年6月,股市急转直下,直至演变成股灾,到1970年5月,每种股票都要比上年初下降50%,甚至更多。1970-1974年间,美国股市一片死寂,没有一丝生气,持续的通货膨胀和低增长使美国经济呈现出萧条。然而,巴菲特欲暗自庆辛,因为他看到了财源滚滚而来--他发现了太多的便宜股票。巴菲特的成功最主要的原因就在于他是一个长期投资者,而不是短期投机者。在潮起潮落的股市之中,巴菲特所表现出来的独特眼光以及冷静理智的判断力是常人难以具备的。1999底至2000初,美国股市那斯达克指数连连飙升,科技股一哄而起,鸡狗升天,特别是网络科技股受到股民的盲目追价,股价高飞,在2000年3月份达到历史峰巅。很少人耐得住寂寞而不加入到科技股的炒作之中。但巴菲特不为所动,始终坚持自己的投资理念,以投资“砖头+水泥”的所谓旧经济公司为主。

觉得不错就SHARE 出去吧。

James Ng

Value Investing is defined as buying those shares which have higher intrinsic value than the share price. For those smart investors, even if their share prices dropped a lot, they still can endure and not worry about it; after the price correction, their share prices started to rise, hence they can make profit. Why 90% of retail investors lose money in the market? Because they are greedy, even though they know it is a dangerous business to speculate but they still take risks and buy those speculating shares; comparing with those smart investors, smart investors never depend on luck alone, but rigorously study the intrinsic value of listed companies, patiently holding good shares, once the prices reached the desired level, they will not hestitate to sell them. Buffett emphasizes value investing, he'll never speculate. Most people don't have the unique abilities to endure psychology stress and lacking prudence judgment, so they prefer value investing.

Buffett'll focus on few potential companies, he'll study the long-term economic values and the quality of the management skills, and buy in big volumes when the prices are cheap enough. 1) He always invest in those easily understood companies which he has confidence, which are having simple and stable business; 2) He emphasizes margin of safety of price -- He views the margin as the corner stone of successful investing. In 1966 spring, US market was doing well, all the share prices which he bought were flying, but Buffett was feeling uneasy, he worried that it is very hard to find cheap share price anymore. The market then was crazy, but Buffett stayed calm, because he believed the rising of share price must be correlated with the growth of the profit of a company, not by speculating.

In 1968 May, when the market was doing well, Buffett informed his partners that he wants to retire. Later on, he sold almost all the shares. In 1969 June, the market crashed and became a bear market, until 1970 May, every shares dropped 50% compared with last year, or more. 1970 to 1974, US market was dead, with continuing inflation and low GDP growth. But Buffett was happy because he knew this is the opportunity to buy many cheap shares. He is successful in investing because he has long sighted view and calm judgment which others are lacking. In the end of 1999 to early 2000, Nasdaq was crazily rising, especially tech stocks, due to the crazy buying momentum of retail investors, and the market reached its peak in 2000 March. Most people can't resist the temptation to join the speculation of tech stocks. But Buffett still staying calm, still believes in his share selection criterias, focusing in "Brick-and-mortar" traditional companies.

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James

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