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Author: kcchongnz   |   Latest post: Mon, 19 Mar 2018, 10:40 PM

 

Eversendai show me the cash kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Mon, 19 Mar 2018, 10:40 PM


I wrote an article two days ago, “How to get rich quick in stock market” to illustrate the perils of margin finance using Sendai as an example in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/151060.jsp

This article has nothing to do if the company is doing well or not. It merely shows that if a youngster who have been touted to use margin finance to buy Sendai 6 months ago at RM1.37 with 50% margin finance would have lost every single sen of his money with the share price now at 71 sen. The promoter of sailang Sendai at that time is none other than the commentator below, with a different nickname though.

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 17, 2018 05:54 PM | Report Abuse

Sendai quarterly results 2017 Q1 to Q4
Pretax............18.7m, 25.7m, 19.7 m, 31.7 m
eps...............2.0 sen, 2.7 sen, 2.7 sen, 3.9 sen
Price high low for the year.............60 sen to $1.40
showing consistent and improving profitability...
enough range to make some real money.
trailing 12 m PE 6.4..............not a bad one to make some real money.
and the company delivered increasing profits.
alas, one badly advised private placement negated all their good work.

Well, if you have read his numerous comments in i3investor, you would know that person hates people talking about PE ratio, and anything related to value investing. He only talks about BS. Now he is talking about earnings, and the associated PE ratio. Fascinating! I am delighted to have a discussion with him, now.

 

Six months ago, I have shared my analysis on Sendai, “Banging on EverSendai, risk and return”, quite a detail one in my opinion, in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/132084.jsp

Basically, I discussed about the problems of the construction industry, the poor past performance in earnings and cash flows of Sendai, its precarious balance sheet, and many perceived risks it is facing. Hence, although it has a huge order book, it may not present a good investment.

The share price of Eversendai was RM1.03 then.

How has all these turn out since 6 months ago?

What the commentator posted above is true. Sendai seems to have turnaround with another two quarters of profit, a net annual profit of RM86.5m, or earnings per share of 11 sen.

That was a drastic turnaround from a loss of 36 sen a year ago to a commendable profit of 11 sen a share. But why was the share price not rising, but instead continue to slide to close at 71 sen today, for a loss of 30% in 6 months? Has the market got it all wrong?

Basically, it boils down to one word, “cash”.

 

Cash is king

Few businesses can survive long without the ability to generate cash. Basically, a business needs to pay all the expenses such as administration, marketing, workers, plant and equipment, materials etc. to produce goods and services. After deducting cash to pay for all these stuff, and sold or executed the services and receive cash, you get some cash left over from the operations, termed cash flows from operations (CFFO). The net income/profit (NI) or earnings figure, the income statement’s “bottom line,” is based on the principles of accrual accounting. Accrual accounting attempts to match expenses with revenues regardless of when the cash transactions that deal with the creation of the goods being sold and the receipt from the sale occurred. In essence, accrual accounting is not entirely concerned with when “cash trades hands.” However, over a long period of time, the cash figure should match closely the net profit figure.

FCF is whatever cash is left after all operating expenses, including capital expenses for growth, like buying new plant and machineries for growth. FCF is like the end all goal of companies. The point is to do so well that you make so much money that even after all the checks written to expand the business you still have a lot of cash. With this FCF a company can pay out dividend consistently, buy back its shares when they are selling cheap, pare down loans, or invest in other profitable ventures, all done without assuming more debts, or issuing more shares.

 

Sendai, show me the cash

Sendai made a profit of RM86.5m for the financial year ended 31st December 2017. First, I would like to see its cash increases, or total borrowings decrease. In Sendai’s case, as it is heavily in debts, I would expect its net borrowings, i.e. total debts less cash, decreased with the profit. However, the latest balance sheet does not show this is the case. Instead, the cash in the balance sheet decreased by M110m from RM387m to RM277m, and net borrowings increased by another RM90m. That has not taken into consideration of some cash received of about RM10m from private placement exercise during the same period.

Where has the “profit” gone? The suckers of cash are a few of them.

If you look at the Income Statement, you would notice that there is this “Other income” of RM24.5m, which the major part of it is “Unrealized foreign exchange gain”. This contributes nothing to the cash in the balance sheet, but merely an accounting number, just like booking a gain for a revaluation of a piece of land.

Another RM100m additional cash was tied up in inventories to a total of RM279m. Another additional RM118m was tied up in “I owe you” by clients owing you more, making the total trade receivables and contract claims of a whopping RM1.8 billion.

Take note that the profit for the year was only RM86.5m, but total clients owing is RM1.8 billion! With the turnover, it would takes one full year to collect your work done, if they were able to be collected all. What kind of business is this?

The cash flow statement, however, shows a good net CFFO of RM118m. This is an adjustment from the non-cash and non-operating items from the income statements. This CFFO was saved by a couple of items, number one in paying creditors later, with an additional RM108m in payable withheld. The other one, which to me is abnormal, by re-allocating the interest cost of RM32m, to the cash flows from financing activities. Interest cost, unlike borrowings, is usually under operating activities and will lower CFFO, and I do not see the logic of putting it under financing activities. This saved Sendai from cash trap in spending another RM97m in capital expenses last financial year.

Note that this precarious cash flow position of Sendai is not just last year, but most, if not all the time as shown in my previous article, Banging on EverSendai, risk and return”.

 

Coming back to the comments of the person below,

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 17, 2018 05:54 PM | Report Abuse

Sendai quarterly results 2017 Q1 to Q4
Price high low for the year.............60 sen to $1.40
showing consistent and improving profitability...
enough range to make some real money.
trailing 12 m PE 6.4..............not a bad one to make some real money.
and the company delivered increasing profits.
alas, one badly advised private placement negated all their good work.

 

Did you, or those youngsters and newbies whom you asked them to sailing with margin finance when it was trading RM1.35, really make money?

Do you know now why the price of Sendai has slipped to 71 sen, and at a PE ratio at 6.4?

Do you really believe in investing using PE ratio?

“Private placement negates all their good work?”

As far as I know, investment bankers are professionals in things like corporate exercises. The management also knows better than anyone else what is best for them too on how and where they can get more cash.

Without money from private placement, where does the company get money for working capital and capital expenses? Rights issues, more bank borrowings, bond issues? Which is easier, cheaper and faster?

 

Conclusion

Making money in the stock market is not easy as many people think. In fact, it is difficult for most retail investors. It is very silly to think that others are so kind to help you to make money in the stock market. Nobody will do that.

In order to be successful in investing, forget about get-rich-quick, one has to depend on none other than yourselves. He must understand the business, and how it makes money, and if it is a good business. They are all presented in the financial statements and annual reports. This is the language of business.

More importantly, one must know how to value the business. You have seen that just knowing the simplistic earnings, and the associated PE ratio, is far from being able to be successful in investing. In fact, it is dangerous to know just a little and become over-confident.

Even if you know how to do all these, it doesn’t mean you can get-rich-quick, but likely you would be able to avoid most of the pitfalls in investing. If you don’t lose, overall you should be able to get satisfactory return over the long-term. That is what an ordinary investor should strive for.

There are many resources out there for one to obtain this knowledge if he wishes to invest safely to build long-term wealth, even for free. If you wish to learn about them in a structured manner, below is one of the providers out there, and you may write to him,

ckc13invest@gmail.com

 

KC Chong

 

 

 

 

Labels: SENDAI
  6 people like this.
 
hollandking by the price? If by the price, i would have bought oredi, is what calvin n kcchongz pointed so clearly
20/03/2018 16:48
hollandking xinquan was a good example how super investor didnt see what was going on but many oredi know what was going on. So why did he missed that critical point?
20/03/2018 16:50
qqq3 sted by hollandking > Mar 20, 2018 04:46 PM | Report Abuse

sometimes u need common sense to be able to see , and kchchongz n calvin pointed it out quite clearly.
====================================================

at least I know you and calvin don't know the meaning of unqualified auditor report......
20/03/2018 16:52
hollandking my stand very simple. Dont touch sendai. You please sialang sendai. I want to see your ending.
20/03/2018 16:53
qqq3 mr king

xinquan is managed by conmen...from the very beginning.

Tan Sri Sendai whole family asset is in this Company......

big difference
20/03/2018 16:55
hollandking no need talk so much, go sialang sendai.
20/03/2018 16:56
kcchongnz Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 01:25 AM | Report Abuse
Again kc, you low life personal attack on uncle Kyy again...u knew he is 2nd largest in Sendai..bad karma, you will have your day very soon

I must have offended you but I don't know why.

Which part of the article I have mentioned names? Maybe except responding to my friend qqq.

Which part of the article I have launched any personal attack?

Attack on what issue? Sharing on how to read and interpret financial statement to avoid pitfalls in investing to those who are interested?

"2nd largest in Sendai"? Does it appear to you that I care? So, you idolizing rich and famous? Go somewhere else lah.

"My day will come"? What day?
20/03/2018 16:56
qqq3 since I wrote some much about sendai....I just bought some more Sendai.....risk reward surely favors me, not the selller.......
20/03/2018 16:57
hollandking ok, buy more, hope u make it big
20/03/2018 16:58
qqq3 Me: Take note of the financing cost of RM31m being placed under cash flows from financing activities. Is that a normal thing to do, my dear accountant? Not paying interest but consider it as new loan? How long can the company carry on doing that?
======================


financing cost $ 31 million , you say?

for a company with $ 2 billion turnover...and you worried? come on la.
20/03/2018 17:03
qqq3 kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?
20/03/2018 17:04
qqq3 kc

the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......

This is not the time to get worried over little details......
20/03/2018 17:09
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse
kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?

No knowledgeable investor will look at interest as a percentage of sales. So you do that? Good on you. So if you do billions of business and earning a pittance, with earnings can't even cover interest, is good? Good on you.

Actually savvy investors look more on cash flows coverage so that there is enough cash to pay interest as a minimum. And as cash flows are lumpy, we use 3-5 years of cash flows to check against interest payment to see if the company's cash flow is even enough to pay interest.

My computer is out and I can't calculate that. Can you do that for me ah? What is the cash flows coverage for the last 3-5 years?
20/03/2018 17:16
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:09 PM | Report Abuse
kc
the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......
This is not the time to get worried over little details......

Well, I don't know about you, but if I have sailang on Sendai with 50% margin 6 months ago at RM1.35 when it was touted by you all over i3investor to do so, my balls also shrink man!
20/03/2018 17:19
stockraider qqq just a amateur...very naive loh....!!

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 20, 2018 05:16 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse
kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?

No knowledgeable investor will look at interest as a percentage of sales. So you do that? Good on you. So if you do billions of business and earning a pittance, with earnings can't even cover interest, is good? Good on you.

Actually savvy investors look more on cash flows coverage so that there is enough cash to pay interest as a minimum. And as cash flows are lumpy, we use 3-5 years of cash flows to check against interest payment to see if the company's cash flow is even enough to pay interest.

My computer is out and I can't calculate that. Can you do that for me ah? What is the cash flows coverage for the last 3-5 years?
20/03/2018 17:21
John_Lee Kcchongnz and qqq3,

I hope I can help with your interest expense debate:

(The other one, which to me is abnormal, by re-allocating the interest cost of RM32m, to the cash flows from financing activities. Interest cost, unlike borrowings, is usually under operating activities and will lower CFFO, and I do not see the logic of putting it under financing activities.)

---------- ---------- ----------

This is a non-issue actually. It is just a matter of presentation on the statement of cash flows. Below is taken from MFRS 107:

"Interest paid and interest and dividends received may be classified as operating cash flows because they enter into the determination of profit or loss. Alternatively, interest paid and interest and dividends received may be classified as financing cash flows and investing cash flows respectively, because they are costs of obtaining financial resources or returns on investments."
20/03/2018 17:38
qqq3 kc/ raider


good managing tip for you both....any expenses, when it is a minute proportion of cash flow from sales, if you are managing the thing, you know you got maximum flexibility and no need to lose sleep over it.
20/03/2018 17:50
stockraider Financing cost is normally measure as % against profit to determine interest cover or against current assets excluding cash for working capital financing or against liabilities to determine cost of funding loh...!!

Very rare or seldom against sales loh.....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?
20/03/2018 17:53
qqq3 that is the trouble with you, raider....you are lost when ever some thing is not in your textbook.......

that is why you chase HY at $19.
20/03/2018 17:56
John_Lee stockraider and qqq3,

The most common measure in determining the ability of a company to pay it's interest expense is via calculating the Interest Coverage Ratio.

That is determined via using (Earnings Before Interest & Tax)/(Interest Expense).

The larger the ratio, the better.
20/03/2018 18:04
kcchongnz Thank you John Lee. At least now we have a genuine accountant enlightening us. I am not an accountant and I appreciate your input.

You are right in your comment. For me, I am more interested in the net cash flow from operations, i.e. after deduction of tax and payment of interest to the debt holders. That is what I get as a common shareholder. If a company earns RM50m, and have to pay interest of RM60m, for the ordinary business, the company does no justice to me as a shareholder.

If the accountant in the above case assigns that interest payment under "financing activities", he is hiding something from me as a shareholder, as most shareholders can't see it, thinking the company is doing fantastic in cash flows.

Interest and dividend received, as in bank deposits, or investments, I believe it is more justifiable to place under investing or financing activities.

So it may be a non-issue in financial reporting, but not a good presentation to shareholders, in my opinion.



Posted by John_Lee > Mar 20, 2018 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz and qqq3,

I hope I can help with your interest expense debate:
20/03/2018 18:20
kcchongnz No. 1 I don’t like to carry out personal attack in investment sharing. For what? I have never used a foul word in my 315 articles I have written in i3investor. I have never call names in the 315 articles.

No. 2 Why do I have to “attack” someone when Sendai at 1.40, HYC at 18 and Jaks above 1.80?

However, I did share a number of my views on Jaks and Sendai, especially when I saw others touting the public to use margin to “sailang” Jaks and Sendai when their share prices were closed to their peaks in the link below.

1) Is Jaks a big fat frog jumping all around? kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Mon, 22 May 2017, 01:29 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp

2) Banging on Eversendai: Risk and Return kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Tue, 12 Sep 2017, 07:11 PM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/132084.jsp

3) Margin Finance, Ever-Sendai: A real time case study kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Wed, 27 Sep 2017, 07:49 PM
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/133708.jsp

4) Ever-Sendai: An investment filled with business sense? kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Sun, 8 Oct 2017, 12:47 AM
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/134621.jsp

I share my analysis for these companies because they are hot stocks being touted relentlessly in i3investor to use margin finance, to provide alternate views for you guys to consider. I am sure those who took my views would have avoided losing big in these two stocks.

Did I mention any personality, or condemn the stocks, or just share my detail analysis of their business and performance?

But what do I get in return? The relentless attacks, such as the below, and many others.


Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 07:20 AM | Report Abuse
KC, why dont write to attack uncle Kyy when sendai at 1.40, HYC at above 18 and Jaks above 1.80? Why you so chicken and only came out to shout when overall market drop ?

Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 07:21 AM | Report Abuse
If your intention is noble, you should came out to warn when stock at peak...why only came out when drop?
20/03/2018 18:58
CharlesT Kc is a good tai chi master...can always beat the cow behind the mountain...there are more than 1000 counters in bursa but he always aimed at certain stocks only...

Anyway i like it.keep it up!!
20/03/2018 19:18
kcchongnz Posted by cheated > Mar 20, 2018 10:32 AM | Report Abuse
kc a cheat. He just praised Hengyuan very good at RM 9+ last week. What happen to HRC today?


I priased Hengyuan last week? How did I?

You must be cheated by your own stupidity. Blame it on yourself.
20/03/2018 20:33
CharlesT Lol
20/03/2018 21:01
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:09 PM | Report Abuse
kc
the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......
This is not the time to get worried over little details......


You call these little details?

1) Growing receivables. With the turnover and "I owe you", on average, each job Sendai does takes a full year, after completion, to collect the money. How to tahan the serious cash flows problem?

2) Owing banks RM1.15 billion now. With "profit" of RM86.5m last year, losing like hell the previous year, and huge negative free cash flows for the last 5 years, how to pay debts, or just interest of the debts?

3) Where to find enough working capitals and capex money when the private placement had been halted, and banks look at the precarious balance sheet and refuse to lend?

4) If there is a financial crisis and banks want to recall money, where to find money?

5) If oil price drops and the Arab countries can't pay, how?

No worries? I know you no worry because you just mong cha cha.
20/03/2018 21:05
hollandking hmmh, an interesting black hole
20/03/2018 21:15
kcchongnz At least one person here understand what I wrote, the message I tried to convey. This makes me going.


Posted by 3iii > Mar 20, 2018 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

KC posted on the accounting of Sendai and highlighted many points in the financial statements. Thanks, they were most interesting and revealing.

I believe you stated the facts and the reasons fairly.

For those disagreeable with this article, please challenge KC on the points he raised, rather than insinuating (true or otherwise) on other issues related or unrelated.

Thks.
20/03/2018 21:58
calvintaneng No worries? I know you no worry because you just mong cha cha.


HAHAHA!! HAHAHA!!

"MONG CHA CHA" IS THE CORRECT DESCRIPTION!!!

ALL WHO BOUGHT INTO SENDAI TODAY MIRRORS THOSE WHO BOUGHT MEGAN MEDIA LAST TIME!!
20/03/2018 22:09
calvintaneng 4. RECEIVABLES IS NOT CASH

This was when I bought into Megan Media at around 67.5 cents. From the Balance Sheet Megan Media showed a P/E of only 3. NTA at over Rm2.00. It also pay a small dividend.

So many have been tricked by the “blue ray” disc hype touted by Megan Media Bosses. However, My Johor Sifu stood his ground & rejected buying into this popular stock which so many others bought.

Why? He questioned the High Amount of RECEIVABLES In Megan Media’s Accounts. RECEIVABLE IS NOT CASH. What is CASH Then? According to my Johor SIFU The Smart Accountant, “CASH IS ONLY CASH IF THE CASH IS RECEIVED AND DEPOSITED IN THE BANK”.

Being not sure I still held on to my Megan Media shares and watched it carefully. Then one day to my surprise, I saw Insider selling 3 million Megan Media shares! And then they unloaded another 5 million shares! Insiders are bailing out!! The pilots are parachuting!!

Straight away I called my Remisier to sell off every Media Megan shares at 66 cents for a small loss. Next day to my chagrin Megan Media even rose to touch 70 cents. If only I had sold one day later? Then I would have made some profit? Why the hurry? Weeks passed. Then one day the horrendous result came out. Megan Media went limit down!

It plummeted to just over 30 cents. One Mr Teh thought it was bargain time & loaded up. Loading up falling knives? Megan Media went bankrupt and got delisted. It was found out later that all the Blue Ray Disc Factories were non existent. RECEIVABLES WERE ALL FAKE.

http://eaglevisioninvest.com/top-10-valuable-investment-secrets-my-johor-sifu-taught-me/
20/03/2018 22:11
arv18 Hey, lets take a step back from this micro ANALysis of the accounts for a moment.

Sendai. Some history.

1983
Eversendai commenced its operations in 1983 as a structural steel erection company in Malaysia and is now a full-fledged matured, dynamic and well-established structural steel turnkey contractor, civil contractor and a specialist power plant contractor with an impeccable International track record.

Eversendai has carved a name for itself as an industry leader in the structural steel design, fabrication and erection of steelwork for high rise buildings, heavy industrial plants, stadiums, steel bridges, roof structures, infrastructure projects and installation of mechanical and electrical works for power plants and industrial plants.

Present:

Most recently, Eversendai ventured into the Oil & Gas market and immediately established the company as a highly capable and skilled fabricator of choice for complex Oil & Gas projects. Eversendai Offshore recently opened a brand new dedicated waterfront Oil & Gas fabrication facility in RAK Maritime City, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE and has seen rapid expansion in this area since its inception.

Point 1)
This company has been and still is a going concern, operational for 35 Years. It has survived multiple downturns Asian Financial, Dot Com, GFC, to outlast other competitors. I think we can all agree that construction is a cut-throat biz/industry.

It shows that the the C-Suite understands and even was able to adapt, taking risks and venturing into the MENA region for work. A good sign. Survival instinct is there. It doesn't rest on its laurels expecting juicy GOVT Contacts like Gamuda etc. Why? Possibly because the boss is not the right colour etc...

Point 2)
O & G downturn in 2014 caught everyone off-guard, leading to payment delays. Im surprised KC has failed to bring this point up. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume others involved in the MENA region, O&G have also faced difficulties.

I'm sure, with the recovery in Brent, we can see some of the payment delays, and backlog be sorted out. Lets wait and see...

Aside:
From and investment standpoint, one has to ask oneself, do I want to invest in construction companies/sector or not? Look at the performance of MRCB, Gamuda, etc. Are they attractive?
Look at the SP Performance. THen make your call.. You needn't spend so much time doing a Deep Dive into accounts. This is a Cyclical and Very Challenging industry, the first to feel any recessionary or 'black swan' type shocks.
21/03/2018 06:28
calvintaneng arv18
Sendai started in 1983. Both Lehman Brothers and Bearstern have longer history than that..crossing 100 years.

Tramsmile was started in 1993 with political support. Even Robert Kuok and Pos were in Top 30 shareholders.

And from surface reading Transmile reported good profits. Its shares rose from Rm2.20 to Rm15.00 to become a darling of Funds and Foreign Investors.

AGMs were crowded and jam packed with shareholders.

Yet there was NO CASH.

In the end it was scam accounting. "Profits" were actually losses covered up by fraud accounting.

From Rm15 Transmile plunged to zero. Both Robert Kuok and Pos lost everything. As well as all who followed Robert Kuok buying into Transmile
At the last meeting only 20 people turned up for AGM.

Same goes for Xinquan. As late as 2016 AR the BOD as well as company secretaries reported that Xinguan has over Rmb 1 Billions as Cash in the Bank.

Yet they were unable to provide the next Qr.

BOTH SECRETARIES WHO SIGNED OFF THE ACCOUNTS LATER RESIGNED TOGETHER.
MANY IN POSITION OF POWER ALSO RESIGNED AS WELL.
UNTIL NOW NO ONE HAS VERIFIED THE RMB1 BILLIONS IN XINQUAN BANK IS REAL OR FAKE.

SINCE ALL PAST WITNESSES TO THE FINANCIAL STATUS OF XINQUAN HAVE RESIGNED AND LEFT BURSA SHOULD LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO XINQUAN JUST AS IT DID WITH MEGAN MEDIA AND TRANSMILES.
21/03/2018 08:03
kcchongnz Thank you for your comments. That is basically the purpose of my article here; how to look at and evaluate the business performance of a company, and its risks, before we even look at its price. It can prevent you from losing your hard earned money following the touting of margin on some stocks.


Posted by tah16600 > Mar 20, 2018 10:51 AM | Report Abuse
I read a lot of articles written by KC Chong, all r very good articles, educate not only newbies but also oldbies correct method of investment.

Posted by williaml > Mar 20, 2018 12:08 PM | Report Abuse
For those who comment on share price, market sentiment, personal attack and etc. You are missing the point here.
Like KC point up, when company do not have cash, it becomes insolvent. As easy as that. Unless it can raise money, get loan and have capital injection from investors. It's just not sustainable.
Investing based on earning, PE ratio and "business sense" only are not enough (whoever tell you so is not painting the whole picture). And throw in margin finance, you have a recipe for disaster.
21/03/2018 08:51
hollandking Think is great u guys are teaching ppl how to spot red flags and textbook don't teach you how to link things up, i3 forum commentators do have some ppl teaching stuff and some well, junk stuffs but we just need to take in the good ones and leave the bad ones. In some case, some have decades of experience in the market and they see lots of things in the past, so for those experiences ones, please share your views, hope to learn from everyone.
21/03/2018 08:58
arv18 Calvin.

1) Give the Cap Locks a rest. Stop drinking coffee or stay off the Ritalin for a day...

2) Apples with Apples.

Don't go all over the show, talking about Lehman, Enron and Transmile...

We are talking construction (sector specific). This is how you begin looking at stocks. It's also called Peer Analysis, by another name.

3) The size of the companies. We want to compare companies of similar size. Which can be challenging, especially here, if we can't find someone else who's also doing Structural Steel?

E.g. Comparing Sycal with Gamuda is a waste of time (like comparing Lehman with Sendai)...

4) When looking at construction sector, you might want to look at the specialities, like equipment (Favelle) or Piling Services (Econpile, Pintaras).
21/03/2018 09:13
3iii In 2016, sendai traded around 50 sen. Its share price climbed in the first half of 2017.

Was this share price rise due to fundamentals? No. It coincided with the entry of KYY into this share. (It is remarkable to see how KYY can single handedly, through his big buying or big selling can move the share prices of his stocks significantly.)

Today the price of sendai is 70 sen per share. This price is within its usual price range of between 50 sen and $1.00 since 2014.

It is an opinion, which is based on the price activities of sendai in 1H of 2017, the average price paid for sendai by KYY was higher than the 70 sen per share.

KYY is now holding a huge amount of sendai share.

As elucidated by KC, sendai has low quality earnings which generated no cash but debts. Though the finances may improve in the future, it is presently in a tight cash situation. Thus, it is not surprising that it has to raise cash through either equity or borrowings.

Its borrowings are already huge and raising debts would be difficult given its poor cash flow situations today, unless this can improve significantly quickly. Selling assets to raise cash is another option. Sendai has chosen to raise funds through private placement of shares at a certain price. KYY wrote on this in an article which was interesting reading.

Is this share placement price above or below KYY's average share price investment in sendai? How will this affect KYY's shareholdings in sendai?


Additional note: sendai has projects in Qatar. Due to the embargo by Saudi, the cost of doing projects in Qatar has increased unexpectedly. Whether this will eat into the thin profit margins of sendai or whether sendai can pass on the cost to the owner is of interest.
21/03/2018 09:29
qqq3 and who is the coward keep deleting my posts?
21/03/2018 09:46
qqq3 Sendai.....revenue for 2017 $ 1.8 billion.

Balance Sheet shows Amount due from customers under contract $1 billion ( 2016 $ 1 billion)
Trade receivables $ 600,000 ( 2016 $ 600,000)

No change , and no increase.

If KC/ Calvin wants to do a micro analysis and find reasons to worry....go ahead, no body stops you.....there are after all, another 1,000 companies out there.

ps.....By the time the balance Sheet has been cleaned up, I would be enjoying my rewards already.


ps...if you find companies where there are no more Amounts due from customers, its probably because no more customers.

ps...a significant portion of the Amount Due from customer is work done on 2 oil rigs to be delivered to customers ( related party) in 2018.......
21/03/2018 09:48
qqq3 rather than why not Sendai....there is the other side of the coin which is Why Sendai?

This is a genuine home grown multi national steel fabricator and contractor involved in many of the most iconic structures across Asia.

A rags to riches story, a successful story that serves as great example to all Malaysians.
21/03/2018 09:57
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 04:42 PM | Report Abuse
why is professor kc so kiasu that operating surplus must show up in cash? that balance sheet to balance sheet must see increasing cash ?


Tell us frankly. Were you really an accountant?
21/03/2018 11:08
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 04:20 PM | Report Abuse
kc

maximum money is make when you are willing to take some risks and things work out in your favor.......

Me: The problem is you don't even understand what the risks are, and simply shout sailang here and there, just hope that these unknowable risks work in your favour. What is the probability of success with your kind of mindset?

here, I refer to the $ 1 billion in the Balance Sheet under the heading Amounts due by customers..( the figure have not changed in 2017)..if there is no more amounts due by customers, its perhaps because they are no more customers.

Me: In most construction works, it will take about 30 days to the longest 90 days to get payment for work done. The receivables here means for each piece of work done, Sendai takes 360 days to get payment for all these years.

As an accountant as claimed yourself to be one, do you understand what the implication is?

Note the net margin is only in the low single digit this year when it makes money. We haven't even talk about how much it lost last year yet!

It is highly probable that a lot of the receivables are disputable.
21/03/2018 13:38
kcchongnz John Lee,

Wise words. Thank you.
21/03/2018 14:49
alenac Very interesting arguments on Eversendai. Time will tell who is right? But the prospect of collecting long "overdue" debts can be a worry to any investors who wish to sailang all their money into a hole which you may not know how deep you would fall. Perhaps qqq3 may have an edge over many here if he has some information to share or rather in the organization itself to be so confident about the company.
21/03/2018 15:10
Alphabeta Interesting arguments for and against using margin financing on a business with history of volatile earnings, high gearing and risky business model.

I understand that Eversendai has secured 2 units of lift boats – Aryan & Arjun, from Vahana Holdings worth USD180 million in 2014.

The 1st liftboat initially scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2017 has been delayed to 1st quarter of 2018 as certification and commissioning of the lift boat is more stringent than expected.

Vahana Holdings has obtained conditional financing for the 1st lift boat but there is a risk of impairment in FY19 should Vahana fail to secure a charter within 12 months of the boat being ready for delivery as banks will only release payments to Eversendai once a charter contract is secured.

The delivery of the 2nd lift boat which is about half way to completion, scheduled to deliver by 1st half of 2018 but delayed to a later date.

There is a potential of Vahana failing to secure financing for the 2nd lift boat and raising the risk of impairments for Eversendai.

It is not only Eversendai performance that count, the risk include client performance in securing business and financial close.

What is your risk reward expectation?
21/03/2018 17:17
PlsGiveBonus Ponzi is ponzi
Whether got cash or no cash is still a ponzi
Cash rich ponzi doesn’t make it a better ponzi
And bank is a ponzi master.
;)
21/03/2018 17:27
KLCI King SC warns investors over ‘pump and dump’ schemes (Bonescythe is WANTED)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/happyinvest/151465.jsp
21/03/2018 17:46
tah16600 Election fever, better chau
22/03/2018 11:04
qqq3 kc

a significant portion of the Amounts Due from customers $ 1 billion is tied up in the two lift boats.....latest reports suggest these are soon to be delivered and turning into cash.......

plenty of cash....

in the pockets of those who bought recently ( 70 sen to 81 sen now) ...and in the bank account of Sendai.
23/03/2018 11:28
ZXLim KC, sailang means persuade or convince in hokkien.
26/03/2018 13:26
arv18 WoW! Kc. Well done! You've goosed the stock price for everyone!
30/03/2018 09:45

How to get rich quick in stock market: kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Sat, 17 Mar 2018, 02:24 PM


In the public forums, we often read about “inspiring” get-rich-quick stories on some individuals who have hundreds of millions of margins accounts from different banks; Maybank, CIMB, Hong Leong Bank, UOB bank, OCBC Bank, RHB Bank etc. It is electrifying to hear that they always make many times the interest they pay for the cost of the margin finance. Yes, “Always” is the word, and the phrase “many times the cost of borrowings”.

Strangely, I have never heard of the phrase, “I have lost quite a lot of money in ? stock using margin account”.

Frankly, I have nothing against anyone who has had the above success, and it appears to be so as they have been boasting about their wealth all over the place. Congratulation to them. It is a democratic and capitalist country here and everyone is entitled to be rich, provided he obtain it by the legitimate way, and best if it is achieved through not immorally, although the latter is a tall order in our society.

However, I always like to present an alternative view, for those who are newbies and youngsters. Otherwise, I would not have done my social service in this respect.

Those who have been reading my articles would have noticed I have been a little “loso”, or repetitive in this topic of margin finance. For those who feel so, you may stop reading now.

The side of fairy tales I don't like is that they always have happy endings, that there's just good and evil, and things are perfect. But life is a little more complicated, and that's what I try to teach my kids.” Angelina Jolie

If you have read my article on the sharp drop in the share price of Hengyuan due to the margin calls and the damage it caused to those using leverage, as well as to those long-term investors, would understand what I mean and my intention.

In my last article published in i3investor in September 2017, “Margin Finance, EverSendai: A real time case study” below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/133708.jsp

I have shown that punters using 50% share margin finance (SMF) would have lost 85% if they followed the clarion call of “sailang” Eversendai by the commentator below at RM1.37 when the share price dropped to 80 sen later.

[stockmanmy has left a new comment on your post "Margin Finance, Ever-Sendai: A real time case study kcchongnz":

sendai from 80 sen to 95 sen now...................
KC lousy timing, lousy business sense and lousy analysis.]

 

And if you follow him to “sailing” again at 90 sen then, would again lose another 43% at today’s price of 71 sen.

 

The Pros and cons of leverage

Many people do use leverage with the intention to enhance their return from investing in the stock market. For example, they can use RM100,000 of their own money and borrow RM100,000. The leverage ratio would be 2 to 1.

Table 1 in the Appendix shows the returns of your investment with different scenarios of total returns with a leverage ratio of 2 to 1. The interest rate is assumed to be 4.85%. The setup facility fee is assumed to be 1% and the two-way transaction cost of 0.8%.

Referring to Table 1, if one had bought Sendai at 65 sen one year ago before the various publicities appeared in public forums would have made 110% when the share price went up to its peak at RM1.37 half year later in June 2017. With 50% margin, he would have made 220%. Even if he had taken profit at 98 sen, or 50% above his cost of 65 sen, he would have made 96% return with the margin as shown in Column 1. How wonderful.

However, most punters are followers of the Greater Fool’s Theory and many would have bought the share at higher price, enticed by the numerous promotions in the public forums, only when the share price has gone up. Being human, they are greedy and wish to mimic the success of super investor of obtaining exaggerated return from Other People’s Money (OPM).

But what happens if you have followed the call to buy Sendai at its peak at RM1.37 and hold the shares until now?

Referring again to Table 1 in the Appendix, you would have lost 48.2% with the closing price of 71 sen now. But with 50% margin, your capital is totally wiped out and becomes zero.

What if some financial crisis happens and Sendai’s share price fell back to 40 sen like 10 years ago? Besides all your capital of RM100000 being wiped out, you still have to find about RM45000 to pay the bank.

The above examples are simplistic, as things like margin calls will come in, but it does show the peril or horror of using OPM. I know some have claimed that margin calls are great thing to happen to them.

You can’t blame anybody for you losses as usual. It is your own decision to buy and sell.

EverSendai is just one good example to illustrate the peril of using OPM. You can get killed too using leverage even in a seemingly good stock like Hengyuan recently. There are numerous other examples I can cite now, tens of them, even during this time when the overall market is nothing close to a financial crisis.

It’s great to borrow a cow and selling the milk, but not until the cow runs off. Now you’re stuck. You owe a cow and don’t have one to return, and no milk. The risk of leverage is investing that debt and losing what you borrowed, which can wipe out any profits, or even your entire capital.

I personally would never suggest to anyone to borrow and use margin to invest. I think it is a very irresponsible act.

Is the future knowable or unknowable? I feel I don’t know what the future holds and hence I will do differently; diversifying, not levering, staying high in the capital structure, and generally girding for a variety of possible outcomes.

Please be reminded that you will never get rich quick following my conservative approach in investing in the stock market. Do at your peril.

I would also like to reiterate that I have nothing against people making so much money using OPM. It is the prerogative of individuals. But I think one has to be more responsible when propagating it in the public forums to the naïve and uninformed, especially for those who are well respected in the society. It is none of my business too, but just like to kepo a bit.

“Borrowing money is a way of trying to get rich a little faster, but there are plenty of good ways to get rich slowly,” Buffett said. “And – you can – you can have a lot of fun while you’re getting rich as well. My partner, Charlie, says that there’s only three ways that a smart person can go broke. He says, ‘liquor, ladies, and leverage.” Warren Buffett

Getting rich quick using OPM only happen to a few percent of the players, mainly those syndicates, big time players and manipulators.  The majority has to get-broke-fast to feed those few who get-rich quick. There is no such thing as everyone will get-rich-quick in this game. Make sure you are the earlier and not the later.

Happy investing.

KC

ckc13invest@gmail.com

Appendix

Table 1: Returns with leverage

  8 people like this.
 
stockraider I always argue with Kc on this margin thing loh...!!

If u r good in investment and find good stock with margin safety to buy, it is okay to use margin loh...!!
Just like if u r a good businessman & u have good project, it is ok to borrow mah...!!

Yes borrowing increase ur risk a little bit, but if u have a good project or stock and u have the right skill...u can offset this minor disadvantage of margin mah....!!

Those people who lose monies using margin in the long run, are basically not good investors loh....!!
Basically these people will lose monies, whether using margin or not using margin at all loh....!!

They lose bcos, their investment skill not good enough mah...not bcos using margin mah....!!

U need to be reasonable good in investment b4 u even consider margin loh....!!

ALWAYS REMEMBER TO USE MARGIN WHEN U R YOUNG AND NOT WHEN U R OLD LIKE, UNLIKE what KC SAYS LOH....!!
IF U USE MARGIN YOUNG...U LEARN THE ROBES OF TRADE EARLIER AND U have time to recover from any failure AND MAKE U A GOOD INVESTOR FASTER LOH....!!

CONCLUSION IF U LOSE MONIES DON BLAME IT ON MARGIN...JUST BLAME YOURSELF WHETHER U R GOOD ENOUGH LOH ??

LOOK AT YOURSELF & ASK WILL U STILL LOSE MONIES, IF U JUST USE CASH to invest LEH ??
19/03/2018 11:27
kcchongnz Raider,

Good to discuss with you again in this issue.

I got your point but I don't think you got mine.

Let me ask you this questions,if a youngster follows the persistence peddling of somebody to buy Sendai at its peak at about RM1.40 6 months ago, with say RM100000.

1) How much he would have left now?
2) How much he would have left with 50% margin, say RM100k of your own money, and another RM100k in margin.

You know lah. This stock was heavily promoted as having billions of contracts and sure make multi-million profit one. Sure win, so sailang. Make more money use margin.

Please do a calculation and show us the answer.
19/03/2018 11:42
stockraider In your example, Thats why i say...these people r not investing...they r speculating mah....!!

Beside this people speculating, they do not even have the right skill to speculate loh....!!

Yes KYY recommend...Sendai..as a good investor...u must do ur own research to confirm KYY findings mah b4 invest loh....!!

Yes even...if u like the story on sendai....should u commit 100% of your monies...in just one single stock or bet leh ??
IF u r willing to commit 100% of your monies in 1 single bet....there is a tendency u r a gambler & not investor loh...!!

So the target audience of those KYY convince are basically potential speculatosr cum gamblers and prepare to win big and have high risk to lose big in sendai mah....!!

Margin accounts should be use moderately....with proper diversification loh....!!

Let me explain this loh....!!
Suppose UR sugar daddy Genting boss to encourage u to gamble offer u extra odds loh...!!
Say Roulette there are 37 numbers...if u strike number they will pay 35 units to u loh...!!
But ur sugar daddy says to increase your odd of success this time i will pay 38 units...if u strike loh....!!
U have Rm 37000 in hand, should buy all your monies on one number or bet proportinately equal amount on every number leh ??

The gamblers will bet 1 single number and the investors will bet every number of the roulette proportionately loh...!!
This what i call risk diversification for investor mah...!!

The conclusion ensure sure win bets but gamblers wants win big bets mah....!!

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 19, 2018 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

Raider,

Good to discuss with you again in this issue.

I got your point but I don't think you got mine.

Let me ask you this questions,if a youngster follows the persistence peddling of somebody to buy Sendai at its peak at about RM1.40 6 months ago, with say RM100000.

1) How much he would have left now?
2) How much he would have left with 50% margin, say RM100k of your own money, and another RM100k in margin.

You know lah. This stock was heavily promoted as having billions of contracts and sure make multi-million profit one. Sure win, so sailang. Make more money use margin.

Please do a calculation and show us the answer.
19/03/2018 12:03
kcchongnz Raider, thanks for your response.

Let me ask you another question, a similar one.

If a young man was convinced the use of margin by someone on the "stock on the century" in Hengyuan, and he was convinced to sailang with his saying of RM100000, and with another RM100000 from the bank, at the peak of euphoria a few months ago when HY was trading between RM17 to RM19.

How much is the leftover now,

1) with his own money
2) with the margin?

I am sure you agree this was a sure make-big-one-stock a few months ago.
19/03/2018 12:15
Jon Choivo stockraider,

I do use leverage, but not margin.

Mine consist of essentially 3-5 year loans from investors. With maximum personal leverage of 50%. Ensuring that i can pay them back without ever having to sell my stocks.

When you use margin, you allow others to dictate when you sell the stock and at what price. Not a good idea imho.

And if you look at 2008 crisis, even berkshire lose 50%. Anyone with a margin of just 1X (can go up to 3x). Die already, it they cannot meet the margin calls.
19/03/2018 12:18
Jon Choivo Just because the expected value is positive. Does not mean you should buy it.

Russian roulette have a EV of 83%! but if you die one time, means gone.

Just avoid points of ruin. And Margin is one of them.

You can diversify all you want. But in crisis, correlation goes to 1. Everything drop for you to see. All the industries etc. At that time, only question is this.

Can you hold or top up? If cannot. Gone case.
19/03/2018 12:22
Ricky Yeo There's no point talking to him. He is overconfident, doesn't understand complexity and nonlinearity and have no appreciation for the unknown. Those that normally gets killed in Black Swan.
19/03/2018 13:47
stockraider KCHONG....U R BARKING ON THE WRONG TREE LOH....!!

NOTICE UR EXAMPLE IS THAT THE YOUNG MAN IS "CONVINCE BY THAT SOMEBODY" TO USE MARGIN TO BUY SHARE LOH....!! BUT IF I SUBSTITUTE THAT YOUNGMAN IS CONVINCE BY SOMEONE TO BUY SHARE USING " CASH"....THE END OUTCOME THAT YOUNG MAN WILL LOSE MONIES WHETHER HE BUY USING CASH OR MARGIN LOH..!!

YES I WILL AGREE THAT YOUNGMAN WILL LOSE MORE, IF HE USE MARGIN TO BUY LOH...!!
BUT THE KEY IS THAT YOUNG LOSE MONIES BCOS LACK OF FINANCIAL SAVVY & NOT BCOS OF USING CASH OR MARGIN TO BUY MAH...!!

AS I SAY U NEED TO TARGET FINANCIAL SAVVY & NOT BAD MOUTH MARGIN MAH..!!
MARGIN IS JUST A FINANCIAL TOOL LOH....!!

THE KEY IS THAT YOUNG GOT CON TOWARDS BUYING A STOCK LACK FUNDAMENTAL LOH....!!

SO DO NOT PAINT MARGIN SUCH A BAD LIGHT LOH....!!
19/03/2018 15:34
stockraider THIS I AGREE LOH....!!

UR ARGUEMENT ON A MACRO BASIS IS WHETHER SHOULD ANYONE BORROW ANY MONIES, TO DO ANYTHING LOH...'NOT JUST SHOULD U USE MARGIN TO BUY SHARE MAH'....!!

THE PRO OF BORROWING MONIES TO DO ANYTHING IS THE SAME AS USE MARGIN TO BUY SHARE MAH....!!

THE CON OF BORROWING MONIES TO DO ANYTHING IS THE SAME AS USE MARGIN TO BUY SHARE MAH....!!

THE ARGUEMENT OF BAD LIGHT OF USING MARGIN CANNOT BEING CONFINE ON SHARE ONLY LOH....!!

MY POINT IS ALL THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAD FAILED ARE THOSE THAT DO NOT KNOW HOW TO INVEST, NOT THEY USING MARGIN TO INVEST THATS WHY FAILED LOH...!!

THE PRO OF BORROWING MONIES TO DO ANYTHING IS THE SAME OF USE MARGIN TO BUY SHARE MAH....!!


Stockraider,

I do use leverage, but not margin.

Mine consist of essentially 3-5 year loans from investors. With maximum personal leverage of 50%. Ensuring that i can pay them back without ever having to sell my stocks.

When you use margin, you allow others to dictate when you sell the stock and at what price. Not a good idea imho.

And if you look at 2008 crisis, even berkshire lose 50%. Anyone with a margin of just 1X (can go up to 3x). Die already, it they cannot meet the margin calls.

PLS NOTE SOMETHING MARGIN CALL R HERE TO PROTECT U TOO, IT ALL NOT ALWAYS THAT BAD MAH...!!

JUST IMAGINE U LEVERAGE...WITH NO MARGIN CALL....WHAT IF U WRONGLY INVEST IN SAY XINGUAN LEH ??


Jon Choivo
967 posts
Posted by Jon Choivo > Mar 19, 2018 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

Just because the expected value is positive. Does not mean you should buy it.

Russian roulette have a EV of 83%! but if you die one time, means gone.
YES POSITIVE EV...UR REWARD TO BE ALIVE IS POSITIVE EV LOH...!!
BUT IF U FAILED....DIE LOH....!! WHY U PLAY THIS ZERO ADVANTAGE GAME LEH ?
INVEST USING MARGIN DIFF MAH...!! LOSE 2X AND WIN 2X...THATS IS FAIR MAH...!!
SO IF U NO GOOD BETTER DON BET LOH...!! EVEN BET WITH CASH ALSO NO NO LOH !!
LEARN MORE TO IMPROVE YOURSELF B4 U BET MAH...!!
IF U R GOOD BET 2X WINS 2X LOSE USE MARGIN....FAIR GAME LOH, ADVANTAGE TO U SINCE U R SKILLFUL MAH LOH..!!

IF U R LOUSY 1X WIN 1X LOSE, USE CASH TO BUY ALSO SHOULD AVOID MAH..!!

Just avoid points of ruin. And Margin is one of them. AGREE AVOID RUIN IF LOUSY BETTER AVOID INVESTING LOH...!!

You can diversify all you want. But in crisis, correlation goes to 1. Everything drop for you to see. All the industries etc. At that time, only question is this. THIS AGREE LOH...IF U USE CASH SAMETHING LOH..!!

Can you hold or top up? If cannot. Gone case. IN CRISIS SHOULD U HOLD..AND TOP UP ?? WHAT HAPPEN IF U R DEAD WRONG LEH ??
19/03/2018 15:54
qqq3 Everybody pretending they are Jesus or what?

Furthermore anyone who comes here are assumed to be of legal age and to trade according to their own ambitions.

if you don't want so much risk, then don't sailang / margin the high beta stocks......

if you sailang and margin a portfolio of blue chips....it would take more than a black swan to cause margin calls.....and even when margin calls occur...it is not the end of the world.....truly not the end of the world.
19/03/2018 16:14
qqq3 Lets look at the Hengyuan kakis.....these people mistaken low PE for safety, low PE mistaken as blue chips.....low PE as low beta

......well....they are mistaken.
19/03/2018 16:16
qqq3 on a theoretical basis as long as borrowing costs is lower than stock returns...you are supposed to go borrow.
19/03/2018 16:21
qqq3 there are many ways to to create beta...and also endorsed by the authorities ....and that includes sailang and margin...also includes call warrants and futures......

you see.....only your lack of ambition and the negative people stops you from becoming what you are capable of.
19/03/2018 16:31
stockraider u TALK LIKE A PRO WHY DON U SAILANG ON BLUECHIP NESTLE LEH ??
19/03/2018 17:10
Highfive Bread KC is being very cautious in his advice to newbies as they do not have the experience to jump into the deep end. The percentage of them succeeding in making money from borrowed money is slim. Didn't want anyone to be in debts, that is all. A lot of people can do it but of course there are those who cannot. At the end of the day be aware of your capabilities and your chances of succeeding. No one can stop you but be warned of the consequences of your failure. Think twice before you act.
19/03/2018 17:11
qqq3 blue chips have blue chip rules. When they don't follow the rules, shareholders can discard the shares.
19/03/2018 17:15
qqq3 what is this newbies oldbies?

everyone has a brain....use it.
19/03/2018 17:17
Why_ no loan from bank? If avoid margin but want to borrow like borrow money to buy house why cannot?

Posted by Jon Choivo > Mar 19, 2018 12:18 PM | Report Abuse
stockraider,

I do use leverage, but not margin.

Mine consist of essentially 3-5 year loans from investors. With maximum personal leverage of 50%. Ensuring that i can pay them back without ever having to sell my stocks.

When you use margin, you allow others to dictate when you sell the stock and at what price. Not a good idea imho.

And if you look at 2008 crisis, even berkshire lose 50%. Anyone with a margin of just 1X (can go up to 3x). Die already, it they cannot meet the margin calls.
19/03/2018 17:23
qqq3 force selling has saved as many people as it has forced people out before a rebound.
19/03/2018 17:54
qqq3 Forced selling protects the banks....it has also protected their customers from dropping further.........
19/03/2018 17:56
qqq3 forced selling can also be a welcomed intervention .....its lucky to have been forced to sell.
19/03/2018 17:57
arv18 you're right kc, should have posted my comment in here instead, for a more positive discussion...

basically, you could use any of your calls, Prolexus, Latitude Tree, ECS, Kfima or even BIMB-wa over the last 2-3 years and LOST money, either by buying such counter with cash OR using margin finance (including interest costs)...

imagine spending long nights doing all that Warren buffet analysis and STILL being stuck for 2 years+!

kcchongnz Posted by arv18 > Mar 20, 2018 12:10 AM | Report Abuse
Um KC, do you really want to go down this road?
Lets take a look at some of your calls
1) Prolexus - Down from ~2.60 to 73 sen today (nice steady downtrend for 2 years)
2) Latitude tree - 8.00 to 3.69 (2 Year downtrend)
3) ECS ICT - 1.78 to 1.14 (2 year downtrend)
4) BIMB-wa - 65 sen to 29 sen
Kfima, Plenitude
On and on it goes...


A reader with a little bit of intelligence would understand this article is about how to read and interpret financial statements, in particular he awareness of cash flow, and not to be fooled by accounting earnings.

I do share a lot of analysis in i3investors, scores if not hundreds of stocks, but purely sharing my analysis, and valuations. I have never made any "calls" to buy any stock.

Please lah, if you wish to comment, you are welcomed, but have some sense and contribute positively.
21/03/2018 05:57
kcchongnz What is this article about? Is your comprehension so bad?

This article is about advising the youngsters and newbies on the perils of listening to the touting of the use of margin finance in the stock market, to buy whatever shares, be in HY, Sendai or whatever.

It has nothing to do with any sharing of just a few stocks out of hundreds of stocks by anybody made 5 to 6 years ago.

Read more and think more,and hopefully your comprehension can improve.




Posted by arv18 > Mar 21, 2018 05:57 AM | Report Abuse

you're right kc, should have posted my comment in here instead, for a more positive discussion...

basically, you could use any of your calls, Prolexus, Latitude Tree, ECS, Kfima or even BIMB-wa over the last 2-3 years and LOST money, either by buying such counter with cash OR using margin finance (including interest costs)...

imagine spending long nights doing all that Warren buffet analysis and STILL being stuck for 2 years+!
21/03/2018 10:28
qqq3 kcchongnz Posted by arv18 > Mar 20, 2018 12:10 AM | Report Abuse
Um KC, do you really want to go down this road?
Lets take a look at some of your calls
1) Prolexus - Down from ~2.60 to 73 sen today (nice steady downtrend for 2 years)
2) Latitude tree - 8.00 to 3.69 (2 Year downtrend)
3) ECS ICT - 1.78 to 1.14 (2 year downtrend)
4) BIMB-wa - 65 sen to 29 sen
Kfima, Plenitude
On and on it goes...
===================


problem with kc approach to stock market....

not responsive to changes, no big picture, treats stock market as if it is a math problem.


...and bad timing.....every time, he come out with article talk bad about Sendai...Sendai jumps up.


each time KC comes out with bad article on Sendai, I make some money.
21/03/2018 10:35
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 21, 2018 10:35 AM | Report Abuse
problem with kc approach to stock market....
not responsive to changes, no big picture, treats stock market as if it is a math problem.
...and bad timing.....every time, he come out with article talk bad about Sendai...Sendai jumps up.
each time KC comes out with bad article on Sendai, I make some money.


Sure, I was very sure you made big money when I wrote about it a few months ago when it was RM1.37, and then when it was about RM1.10, when each time you sailang. Good on you.
21/03/2018 10:48
qqq3 kc.....every small cap stock.....those below $ 1 billion market cap....their P & L no stability. Today, Superlon, yesterday Poh Huat.

yet.....these are the stocks you and OTB specialize in and call your selves value investors based on PE and your maths .....you and OTB no shame?
21/03/2018 13:16
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 21, 2018 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
kc.....every small cap stock.....those below $ 1 billion market cap....their P & L no stability. Today, Superlon, yesterday Poh Huat.
yet.....these are the stocks you and OTB specialize in and call your selves value investors based on PE and your maths .....you and OTB no shame?


Me no shame?

From my various discussions with you, and whatever you write in i3investor, I can easily conclude that you know noting about accounting. But you claimed that you are a retired accountant.

From what I read from your comments, and a few posts you write, I can see you know nothing about investing. But you are damn good in PLP.

Hey, so old already still PLP like that, no shame ah?
21/03/2018 13:21
qqq3 Precisely because I am accountant and you an engineer...I assume OTB is also engineer....I call both you and OTB , Babies with new toys, the way you and OTB approach the stock market....

my approach.....come here...

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600151380.jsp


and tell your cult members not to keep deleting my posts.
21/03/2018 13:35
stockraider Yes u r an accountant but a rubbish accountant loh....!!

Kc is an engineer but a financial savvy engineer mah...!!
21/03/2018 13:40
qqq3 raider...you are even more naive than KC, at least you didn't ask money from people to learn from you.
21/03/2018 13:42
stockraider Raider already very rich mah, no need to ask monies loh...!!
Raider talk cock...for enjoyment loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 21, 2018 01:42 PM | Report Abuse

raider...you are even more naive than KC, at least you didn't ask money from people to learn from you.
21/03/2018 13:49
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 21, 2018 01:35 PM | Report Abuse
my approach.....come here...

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600151380.jsp

and tell your cult members not to keep deleting my posts.


What a rubbish link you sent me with someone talking nonsense to himself!

You don't even know why so many people deleting your comments?
21/03/2018 13:54
qqq3 kc...You should go through the points one by one.....better than your maths.
21/03/2018 18:47
qqq3 Precisely because I am accountant and you an engineer...I assume OTB is also engineer....I call both you and OTB , Babies with new toys, the way you and OTB approach the stock market....
21/03/2018 18:49
qqq3 kc.....every small cap stock.....those below $ 1 billion market cap....their P & L no stability. Today, Superlon, yesterday Poh Huat.

yet.....these are the stocks you and OTB specialize in and call your selves value investors based on PE and your maths .....you and OTB no shame?
21/03/2018 18:50
qqq3 kc.....go write letter to Munger and your beloved Warren.....ask whether such small caps with their unstable P&L can qualify to be called value investing...whether they want some?
21/03/2018 18:54
qqq3 Post removed. Why?
22/03/2018 10:52
qqq3 On Sendai.....it will easily end 1H 2018 above $ 1.00

kc...you want to put your analysis to the test?
22/03/2018 11:45
Ooi Teik Bee Posted by qqq3 > Mar 21, 2018 01:16 PM | Report Abuse

kc.....every small cap stock.....those below $ 1 billion market cap....their P & L no stability. Today, Superlon, yesterday Poh Huat.

yet.....these are the stocks you and OTB specialize in and call your selves value investors based on PE and your maths .....you and OTB no shame?

Ans :
I measured my performance based on the amount of money I made from stock market.
Unlike someone, 100k also cannot raise to invest in stock market.
How to win big ?

theloneranger = stockmanmy = brightsmart = Helpinghand =qqq3

Do you feel shameful to appear here and attacked me ?
You compete with me and you lost to me.
My gain is 28.46% and your gain is 16.50%
Who is better in term of investment.
OTB is better than you (theloneranger, Brightsmart and qqq3)

Please read the below posting.

Thank you.
Ooi

Jan 2, 2017 05:54 PM | Report Abuse

@stockmanmy
Your remarks on me !!

Choose high risk stock.
Not diversified portfolio.
Do not know how to select stock.

I am just a lay man in the street, I choose the stocks base on my stock selection criteria.

The below are stockmanmy's pick and Ooi Teik Bee's pick based on the closing price on 29/4/2016.

Let us check the performance on 30/12/2016.

Bornoil 0.15 X 14,000 = 2100
CBIP - 2.25 X 900 = 2025
Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 = 2130
Ecoworld - 1.29 X 1500 = 1935
Taan - 4.79 X 200 = 958
Jtiasa - 1.35 x 700 = 945
Total capital = 10093

Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Bornoil 0.18 X 14,000 = 2520
CBIP - 1.97 X 900 = 1773
Ekovest - 2.38 X 1500 = 3570
Ecoworld - 1.34 X 1500 = 2010
Taan - 3.95 X 240 = 948 (1 for 5 BI)
Jtiasa - 1.34 x 700 = 938
Total capital = 11759
Total gain = +1666 or +16.50%

My pick
Gamuda-WE - 0.995 X 4,000 = 3,980
Gadang - 2.08 X 600 = 1,248
Gkent - 1.71 X 800 = 1,368
Kimlun-WA - 0.705 X 1,600 = 1,128
Pohuat-WB - 0.675 X 2,000 = 1,350
WTK - 1.20 X 1,000 = 1,200
Total capital = 10,274

Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Gamuda-WE - 1.21 X 4,000 = 4,840
Gadang - 1.05 X 1500 = 1,575 (1 split into 2 and 1 for 4 BI)
Gadang-WB - 0.42 x 300 = 126 (Free WB)
Gkent - 3.04 X 1000 = 3,040 (1 for 4 BI)
Kimlun-WA - 0.67 X 1,600 = 1,072
Pohuat-WB - 0.775 X 2,000 = 1,550
WTK - 0.995 X 1,000 = 995
Total capital = 13,198
Total gain = +2,924 or +28.46%

Summary
stockmanmy gain +1666 or +16.50%
OTB - Gain +2,924 or +28.46%

I wish to post this record here for reference to avoid future argument. I want to talk on facts and figures only.

Thank you.
Ooi
22/03/2018 11:54
TanDavid88 loser to talk bad on winner.
Any shame on you, qqq3.

Stock performance is not measured based on the amount of bullshit or lies you tell in i3.
Show me your performance lah ?
22/03/2018 11:58
qqq3 otb...talk facts....

.....go write letter to Munger and your beloved Warren.....ask whether such small caps with their unstable P&L can qualify to be called value investing...whether they want some?
22/03/2018 12:04
qqq3 Precisely because I am accountant and you an engineer...I assume OTB is also engineer....I call both you and OTB , Babies with new toys, the way you and OTB approach the stock market....
22/03/2018 12:05
qqq3 volatility...OTB's weapon to attract new customers.

volatility works both ways.
22/03/2018 12:59
qqq3 otb...I dare say you know nothing about the true nature of the stock market returns until you have read....Fooled By Randomness.
22/03/2018 13:20
qqq3 kc.....every small cap stock.....those below $ 1 billion market cap....their P & L no stability. Today, Superlon, yesterday Poh Huat.

yet.....these are the stocks you and OTB specialize in and call your selves value investors based on PE and your maths .....you and OTB no shame?
22/03/2018 13:22
qqq3 so why kc and otb only interested in volatile stocks?
22/03/2018 16:42
qqq3 kc...you want to talk bad about get rich schemes but only interested in small cap stocks....a little bit weird.
22/03/2018 16:44
qqq3 just like internet sifu...this kc, otb..all same same....all targets volatility to gain a day's fame.
22/03/2018 16:54
brightsmart kc...hang pig head to sell dog meat?
22/03/2018 23:35
qqq3 kc....people who sailang Sendai since you wrote is doing well...

81 sen vs 70 sen previously.
23/03/2018 11:12

Musing on the hottest stock kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Fri, 9 Mar 2018, 12:19 AM


I went straightaway to i3investor this morning to read the news there. On the right-hand side of the blog, the “Top 5 Articles” stared straight into my eyes.

TOP ARTICLES

1.

Hengyuan: A Blessing in Disguise - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog

2.

Hengyuan - No Doom For 2018 Financialpedia

3.

Hengyuan plunges another 15%, may revisit next support level gossip news

4.

HENGYUAN ANOTHER DOWNGRADE TARGET PRICE TO RM 6.00 LEVEL SASARAN HARGA STOCK

5.

HENGYUAN created infamous HISTORY never seen before ! {PureBULL Strategy} KLSE MARKET STRATEGY

This has shown that Hengyuan (HY) continues to be the hottest stock in i3investor, far ahead of any other stock. Kudos to Hengyuan. This has also shown that articles, whatever and however a certain investor write, continues to be the top article in i3investor, far ahead of any article by any other writer, combined.  Kudos to the continuing sharing of that famous writer.

Being human, I also have this FOLO mentality. Seeing that, I can’t help myself to join in the fun.

 

In the third article above, Louis Low of Hong Leong Investment Bank said,

"The price has breached below the psychological support of RM10 and may revisit its next support of RM8.60."

Can’t comment much on this article as I do not have much knowledge about it. All I know HY share price has actually broke below RM8.60 yesterday, and I guess many shareholders following this advice would have sold off at around RM8.60. It just closed at RM9.22 today on 8th March 2018. I am sure the “support” and “resistance” levels have changed. It is very hard for me to invest based on a moving target which changes numerous times within a day, as in the case of HY. I would have no time to play golf or have a cuppa coffee with friends as I would have to stare at the computer, all day long.

 

For the fourth article above, the author just plucked a figure from the sky; a target price of RM6.00 for HY. I guess the writer must be practising some kind of Voodoo! I don’t know anything about black magic, and hence can’t comment anything on it.

 

The incredible share price movement of HY

The fifth article above discussed the fast and furious share price movement of HY recently, and that it created history in Bursa. The share price movement of HY indeed has been very interesting. I have been contemplating to write a follow-up article to discuss about how not to be “killed” in the stock market after my last article three weeks ago, titled “The “Killers” and the “Slaughtered lambs” in the stock market” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/147671.jsp

Figure 1 below shows the share price movement of HY for the last one year.

The share price of HY rose steadily from RM2.00 in less than one year ago to its intraday peak of more than RM19 at the beginning of January 2018, for a gain of 850% in a year! It also could drop from RM19 to RM12, for a loss of 37%, and from RM15 to RM8.20, for a loss of 45%, both within a few days.

A year ago, there was little discussions about HY in i3investor until its share price rose to about RM8.00 in August last year, when the activities in the HY thread heightened.  

Figure 1: Historical share price movement of Hengyuan

There were a number of tailwinds for the business of HY, among them,

  1. Rise of crude oil price resulting in
    1. Rising margin of refining works, widening of crack spread
    2. Gain in inventories, due to the First-in-first-out (FIFO) inventories accounting, a non-cash item which can be a big number for HY
  2. Increased demand following unplanned production outages caused by the hurricane in Gulf of Mexico, and a fire incidence in a world-scale European refinery.
  3. Tax credits in the previous quarters, and hence higher bottom line.
  4. Gain in foreign exchange

 

Note the above are all one-time-off items which are unlikely to repeat. In fact, they may reverse, for example drop in crude oil price resulting in inventories loss, huge capital expenses, reverse in foreign exchange rate, exhaustion of tax credit etc.

I know a group of FA investors who have capitalized the above and started to invest in HY when it was trading at a few Ringgit a piece. Many of them are savvy investors who were aware of the tailwinds above and could carry out analysis on their own and were right in the outcome. Many have made a “killing” investing in HY when it was cheap.

I also read about a BS speculator who had bought loads of HY at a few Ringgit a piece. With the collaboration of some other FA investors and also momentum players and writing articles after articles singing the song that HY was the stock of the century, and for long-term, and with all the euphoria, the share price of HY shot up like a “missile” from RM8.00 to RM19.00 within two months. Even at its peak price, articles after articles were published to help retail investors to make money, to buy HY shares. Anyone who had sold HY shares, even at RM17 somewhere in January was branded as foolish.

Only very few humble investors who can control their emotion of fear to think logically, would dare to admit their mistake and buy back at higher prices.”   

The music never stopped and everybody was making lorry loads of profit, and laughing to the banks, everybody, including monkeys.

Finally, trees don’t grow to sky. Even with the fantastic results published recently, the share price of HY plunged to a low of about RM8.20 yesterday. There was blood all over the street.

Here came the top article for a few days in i3investor, the first article above, and the most “inspiring”, “motivating” and “glorious” one, “Hengyuan, a blessing in disguise” from someone who has consistently making huge amount of money from the stock market, in months.

 

The killer

Some people are really blessed. Anything they touch, it turns to gold. Not only that, God also helps them to make use of other people’s money (OPM) to make more money, hundreds of millions. It is fantastic, and incredible.

Oh, oh, they are so good in stock picking, so rich, respect, reespect!

They are also the chosen lot, always able to buy and sell at the right time and make humongous profit and laughing all the way to the banks, all the time. In HY’s case, imagine using RM100m own money and borrow RM100m from the banks and bought 20 million shares at an average price of say RM10, and sold them at an average price of say RM18, the profit would be RM160m, in one share and within a few months! Some of them openly boast around about their prowess in this game.

GOD works in mysterious ways to help those kind hearted who needed help.”

God is really busy all the time helping everybody in all kinds of things, including making money, big money, in the stock market. God has no time to do any other thing.

This money-making prowess by using OPM is “inspiring”, and “motivating”. They always make a lot of money from OPM in the stock market. Never before they have lost any money investing in any stock. It is truly incredible. Of course, with God’s help, there are always miracles.

But wait a minute. Where has this RM160m come from? Falling from the sky?

Anyone got “killed”? Why would God want to see those poor, under-privileged and naïve got “killed”?

If you got “killed”, can you blame anybody? I don’t think so. You have to take responsibility of your own action, as they have already told you, they can ask you to buy, and you buy at your own risk, and if they want to sell, they are not obliged to tell you.

God is not going to help you as you are speculating in the stock market. God only helps those chosen speculators who would make hundreds of million in share trading profit, not you. Of course not. How much do you have to invest?

If you got “killed”. Do you want to have the same experience again in the future?

That is the gist of the second article above, “Hengyuan - No Doom For 2018”.

The writer of the above article has gone into details on the business of HY, and its valuation. It is hard to find this type of article.

 

Fundamental analysis of HY

As a fundamental investor, I find the second article above most informative and reliable if I were to consider investing in HY. It involves looking at its business, a real BS. It estimates its bottom line in details from its top line base on the present information and what the expected in the next one year, and translate it into earnings per share, EPS.

Base on the EPS estimated, the author has tabulated the prospective price of HY with various price-to-earnings ratio, PE as shown in the table below.

From the table above, if the market gives a PE ratio of 6, HY should worth RM14.40 to RM16.30. At RM9.22 now, there seems to be plenty of upside for HY. What if the PE is 10? Fat tat loh!

So far so good, except that the denominator used, E, is an accounting number, or accounting net profit. In this E, it is made up all kinds of stuff; foreign exchange gains due to restructuring of the foreign loans, tax saving from reinvestments, “other operating gains”, “other income”, many of them are just one-time-off and non-cash items.

Here are some explanations on the pitfall of using accounting E, and its associated PE ratio,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/63417.jsp

It would be more appropriate if the author can use a normalized EPS, i.e. to strip off all those non-cash and non-operating one-time-off items and cyclicals from the E, and not just one-year E.

What is the actual cash received? More importantly, after capital expenses, what is the future free cash flows from this business?

Financial theory postulated by John Burr Williams in his “The theory of investment value” suggests that the value of a stock is worth all the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.

The more appropriate comparison is its price versus its value, rather than its price versus earnings.

Well, I am not saying what has done by the author is wrong, but surely there are other points to ponder about, or else HY would not be trading at RM9.22 now with a PE of less than 4.

 

Conclusions

HY is truly the hottest stock in i3investor, monopolizing the top five articles in i3investor. There were many who made money by discovering it early in a year ago by analyzing its business and the prospects, and its value. Some, but very few also made money, in fact big money, speculating and even manipulating the sentiments of the masses in its share price movement. However, money won’t drop from the sky; some win (killers) and some (those killed) will lose. It is a zero-sum game as far as its speculative share price movement recently is concerned. Many uninformed lost their pants chasing the share when it was selling at or close to its peak, many with margin financing.

There is only one person you can depend on in order not to be “killed” in the speculative stock market, that is you. You must treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business for the long haul, rather than following the greater fool theory. You must arm yourselves with the knowledge of a business, how it makes money? Is it making good money? Is the money making consistent, etc. More importantly, one must know the price versus its value.

There are many resources around to acquire this knowledge; from books, and even free from the internet. All is required is commitment, time and effort.

If you wish to steepen your learning curve, and learn it in a more structured manner, there are also service providers around. You may also contact me at the email below,

ckc13invest@gmail.com

Avoid being “killed” in the stock market is more important option for your financial wellbeing, as any other option will be better.

 

KC Chong

 

 

 

 

 

  11 people like this.
 
stockraider For the fourth article above, the author just plucked a figure from the sky; a target price of RM6.00 for HY. I guess the writer must be practising some kind of Voodoo! I don’t know anything about black magic, and hence can’t comment anything on it. RIGHT COMMENT IF NO FACT & FIGURES U NO WAY GET IT RIGHT LOH..!!

The incredible share price movement of HY
The fifth article above discussed the fast and furious share price movement of HY recently, and that it created history in Bursa. The share price movement of HY indeed has been very interesting. I have been contemplating to write a follow-up article to discuss about how not to be “killed” in the stock market after my last article three weeks ago, titled “The “Killers” and the “Slaughtered lambs” in the stock market” in the link below,
THIS RAIDER SAY WRONG ON KC, SLAUGHTER ? NOT REALLY LOH....!! LIKE WARREN BUFFET SAYS BIG MAC SELL FOR RM 14.00, IF GOT OPPORTUNITY TO BUY LOWER AT RM 8.00, R U REALLY SLAUGHTERED ?? NO....IT IS OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!
PROVIDED U GOT UR VALUATION RIGHT LOH....!!
10/03/2018 14:43
stockraider The share price of HY rose steadily from RM2.00 in less than one year ago to its intraday peak of more than RM19 at the beginning of January 2018, for a gain of 850% in a year! It also could drop from RM19 to RM12, for a loss of 37%, and from RM15 to RM8.20, for a loss of 45%, both within a few days.

A year ago, there was little discussions about HY in i3investor until its share price rose to about RM8.00 in August last year, when the activities in the HY thread heightened.

There were a number of tailwinds for the business of HY, among them,

Rise of crude oil price resulting in
Rising margin of refining works, widening of crack spread
Gain in inventories, due to the First-in-first-out (FIFO) inventories accounting, a non-cash item which can be a big number for HY
Increased demand following unplanned production outages caused by the hurricane in Gulf of Mexico, and a fire incidence in a world-scale European refinery.
Tax credits in the previous quarters, and hence higher bottom line.
Gain in foreign exchange

Note the above are all one-time-off items which are unlikely to repeat. In fact, they may reverse, for example drop in crude oil price resulting in inventories loss, huge capital expenses, reverse in foreign exchange rate, exhaustion of tax credit etc.
AGAIN KC GOT MOST THING RIGHT BUT HE GET ONE MOST IMPORTANT MAJOR POINT ON REFINING MARGIN WRONG LOH....!!
THE STRONG REFINING MARGIN IS RISING AND SUSTAINING AT AROUND USD 8 PER BARREL, THAT SHOULD SUPPORT EPS OF HENGYUAN EXCEED RM 2.00 PER SHARE LOH...!!
ALSO THE CASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN AROUND OF RM 4.00 PER SHARE IS TREMENDOUS MAH..!!
U CAN NEVER FIND ANOTHER CO TRADING BELOW RM 10.00 WITH FREECASHFLOW OF RM 4.00 PER SHARE LOH.....!!

I know a group of FA investors who have capitalized the above and started to invest in HY when it was trading at a few Ringgit a piece. Many of them are savvy investors who were aware of the tailwinds above and could carry out analysis on their own and were right in the outcome. Many have made a “killing” investing in HY when it was cheap.
THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONIES, BEN GRAHAM ADVOCATE BUY WHEN THERE IS BIG OPPORTUNITY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

I also read about a BS speculator who had bought loads of HY at a few Ringgit a piece. With the collaboration of some other FA investors and also momentum players and writing articles after articles singing the song that HY was the stock of the century, and for long-term, and with all the euphoria, the share price of HY shot up like a “missile” from RM8.00 to RM19.00 within two months. Even at its peak price, articles after articles were published to help retail investors to make money, to buy HY shares. Anyone who had sold HY shares, even at RM17 somewhere in January was branded as foolish.
IT MAKE BE TRUE HENGYUAN MOVE UP TOO FAST FROM RM 2.00 TO RM 19.00 IN LESS THAN 1 YR....BUT THE GAIN IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG CASHFLOW AND EARNINGS LEH ??
THE ANS; IS YES LOH.....!!

“Only very few humble investors who can control their emotion of fear to think logically, would dare to admit their mistake and buy back at higher prices.” ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!
The music never stopped and everybody was making lorry loads of profit, and laughing to the banks, everybody, including monkeys.

Finally, trees don’t grow to sky. Even with the fantastic results published recently, the share price of HY plunged to a low of about RM8.20 yesterday. There was blood all over the street.
THE PICTURE PAINTED BY KC IS UNFAIR AND NOT LEARNED...IT LIKE AHMOI AND AHFAH HAVING DISCUSSION IN PUDU MARKET LOH.....!!
10/03/2018 14:56
gohkimhock @raider, you still haven't sell your HY?
10/03/2018 15:07
stockraider HENGYUAN FACE SETBACK WITH Q4 BELOW EXPECTATION LOH....!!

Here came the top article for a few days in i3investor, the first article above, and the most “inspiring”, “motivating” and “glorious” one, “Hengyuan, a blessing in disguise” from someone who has consistently making huge amount of money from the stock market, in months.

Some people are really blessed. Anything they touch, it turns to gold. Not only that, God also helps them to make use of other people’s money (OPM) to make more money, hundreds of millions. It is fantastic, and incredible.

Oh, oh, they are so good in stock picking, so rich, respect, reespect!
They are also the chosen lot, always able to buy and sell at the right time and make humongous profit and laughing all the way to the banks, all the time. In HY’s case, imagine using RM100m own money and borrow RM100m from the banks and bought 20 million shares at an average price of say RM10, and sold them at an average price of say RM18, the profit would be RM160m, in one share and within a few months! Some of them openly boast around about their prowess in this game.
BASED ON RAIDER ANALYSIS OF THE REGISTER KYY & FAMILY HAS NEVER OWN MORE THAN 6M HENGYUAN SHARE, KYY CLAIM IS EXAGGERATED BUT HE REALLY MAKE MONIES, THE REAL AMOUNT HIS WIN CLAIM IS OVERSTATED FOR THE PURPOSE OF BOAST LOH...!!

“GOD works in mysterious ways to help those kind hearted who needed help.”

God is really busy all the time helping everybody in all kinds of things, including making money, big money, in the stock market. God has no time to do any other thing.

This money-making prowess by using OPM is “inspiring”, and “motivating”. They always make a lot of money from OPM in the stock market. Never before they have lost any money investing in any stock. It is truly incredible. Of course, with God’s help, there are always miracles.

But wait a minute. Where has this RM160m come from? Falling from the sky?
Anyone got “killed”? Why would God want to see those poor, under-privileged and naïve got “killed”?
If you got “killed”, can you blame anybody? I don’t think so. You have to take responsibility of your own action, as they have already told you, they can ask you to buy, and you buy at your own risk, and if they want to sell, they are not obliged to tell you.

God is not going to help you as you are speculating in the stock market. God only helps those chosen speculators who would make hundreds of million in share trading profit, not you. Of course not. How much do you have to invest?
If you got “killed”. Do you want to have the same experience again in the future?

That is the gist of the second article above, “Hengyuan - No Doom For 2018”.
The writer of the above article has gone into details on the business of HY, and its valuation. It is hard to find this type of article.

IT POINTS TO KYY INCONSISTENT AS A FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS LOH....!!
HE IS MERE A SPECULATOR WILLING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GENERAL NAIVE INVESTORS LOH....!!
A POINT OF CAUTION : MOST INVESTORS IF U FOLLOW KYY U NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS LOH.....!!
10/03/2018 15:08
stockraider Fundamental analysis of HY

As a fundamental investor, I find the second article above most informative and reliable if I were to consider investing in HY. It involves looking at its business, a real BS. It estimates its bottom line in details from its top line base on the present information and what the expected in the next one year, and translate it into earnings per share, EPS.
Base on the EPS estimated, the author has tabulated the prospective price of HY with various price-to-earnings ratio, PE as shown in the table below.

RAIDER SAY YES PE IS ONE METHOD TO IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITY, BUT U NEED TO FURTHER INVESTIGATE IS IT REALLY OPPORTUNITY BUT DO NOT BELITTLE IT LOH...!!
From the table above, if the market gives a PE ratio of 6, HY should worth RM14.40 to RM16.30. At RM9.22 now, there seems to be plenty of upside for HY. What if the PE is 10? Fat tat loh!

So far so good, except that the denominator used, E, is an accounting number, or accounting net profit. In this E, it is made up all kinds of stuff; foreign exchange gains due to restructuring of the foreign loans, tax saving from reinvestments, “other operating gains”, “other income”, many of them are just one-time-off and non-cash items.
Here are some explanations on the pitfall of using accounting E, and its associated PE ratio,
AS RAIDER SAYS A SUSTAINABLE EPS EXCEEDING RM 2.00 IS FAIR FOR HENGYUAN LOH...!!
IF VALUATION IS RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 BUT IF SHARE PRICE IS BELOW RM 10.00 , THIS MEANS FAT OPPORTUNITY LOH....!

SAVVY INVESTMENT SUPPOSE TO BE THIS WAY WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH..!!
It would be more appropriate if the author can use a normalized EPS, i.e. to strip off all those non-cash and non-operating one-time-off items and cyclicals from the E, and not just one-year E.

IF U ASK FUTURE CASHFLOW AND EARNINGS NO ONE CAN ANS U LOH...!!
U NEED TO GUESS WHICH IS ESTIMATE AND THERE IS PROBABILITY U MAY GET IT WRONG LOH..!! RAIDER SAYS EVEN INSIDER MAY GET IT WRONG LOH...!!
What is the actual cash received? More importantly, after capital expenses, what is the future free cash flows from this business?
“The theory of investment value” suggests that the value of a stock is worth all the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.

THE KEY HERE IS HENGYUAN CASHFLOW IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE FOR 2017 AND EPS IS RM 3.03 AND NOW SHARE PRICE IS RM 9.57,NOW IS THIS OPPORTUNITY LEH ?
The more appropriate comparison is its price versus its value, rather than its price versus earnings.
Well, I am not saying what has done by the author is wrong, but surely there are other points to ponder about, or else HY would not be trading at RM9.22 now with a PE of less than 4.

RAIDER SAY GIVEN THAT, IF WE DISCOUNT THE CASHFLOW BY 50% TO FREECASH PER SHARE OF RM 2.00, AT HENGYUAN SHARE PRICE OF RM 9.57 IT IS BIG UNDERVALUE LOH...!!

REMEMBER NESTLE FREECASH FLOW IS TRADING AT 50X WHEREAS HENGYUAN TRADE BELOW 5X, LET START INVESTIGATING THE POTENTIAL UNDERVALUATION OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!

THE TP OF RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 IS NOT TOO FAR FETCHED LOH....!!
10/03/2018 15:26
stockraider Conclusions

HY is truly the hottest stock in i3investor, monopolizing the top five articles in i3investor. There were many who made money by discovering it early in a year ago by analyzing its business and the prospects, and its value. Some, but very few also made money, in fact big money, speculating and even manipulating the sentiments of the masses in its share price movement. However, money won’t drop from the sky; some win (killers) and some (those killed) will lose. It is a zero-sum game as far as its speculative share price movement recently is concerned. Many uninformed lost their pants chasing the share when it was selling at or close to its peak, many with margin financing.
THIS RAIDER SAYS KC CONCLUSION ON HENGYUAN ALL WRONG LOH....!!
MOST DUMB DUMB HOLD INVESTORS MAKE MONIES....BUT THEY HAVE MAKE MUCH LESS NOW LOH....!!

THE MONEY MAKING QUESTION IS SHOULD U BUY MORE HENGYUAN NOW, WHEN IT IS BELOW RM 10.00 LEH ??
RAIDER SAYS YES LOH....FOR EXAMPLE AHFAH FROM PUDU MARKET HAS STARTED BUYING AT RM 9.00 LOH....!!

THIS RAIDER AGREE LOH...!! U MUST ARM YOURSELF WITH KNOWLEDGE LOH...!!
IF U R UNABLE TO DO THAT, THEN U MUST FOLLOW SOME ONE U CAN TRUST, LIKE AHFAH TRUST GENERAL RAIDER LOH...!!
IF U CANNOT FIND THE TRUST WORTHY PERSON, THEN U BETTER DON INVEST BLINDLY LOH;
There is only one person you can depend on in order not to be “killed” in the speculative stock market, that is you. You must treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business for the long haul, rather than following the greater fool theory. You must arm yourselves with the knowledge of a business, how it makes money? Is it making good money? Is the money making consistent, etc. More importantly, one must know the price versus its value.

A WORD OF CAUTIOUN, EVEN IF U R THE WORLD GREATEST INVESTOR LIKE WARREN BUFFET, U MAY STILL LOSE IF U SPECULATE SHORT TERM IN THE MARKET LOH...!!
WARREN BUFFET HAD ADVICE MANY TIME, ALWAYS INVEST LONG TERM LOH...!!
BCOS SHORT TERM IS JUST A VOTING MACHINE LOH....!!
ON CERTAIN OCASSION W.BUFFET ALSO LOSE SHORT TERM LOH...!!
There are many resources around to acquire this knowledge; from books, and even free from the internet. All is required is commitment, time and effort.
Avoid being “killed” in the stock market is more important option for your financial wellbeing, as any other option will be better.
10/03/2018 15:36
kcchongnz Raider,

Please note that when I said some people got slaughtered, it was not referring to you, or some others who have bought HY below RM10, or even much cheaper. I am talking about in general.

Look at the chart when the share price of HY when it was during the euphoria when it was chased up to RM19 with many articles and countless promotion in HY's thread, the spike of activities at the height around RM19, and sharp correction to RM12, and then another sharp correction to RM8+, the frenzy buying and selling, and the boasting about exaggerated return with margin finance, and you tell me nobody got "killed"?

Where did the gain of RM100+m come from? From the sky?
10/03/2018 17:08
stockraider ur boss exaggerated his return loh....!!
Raider estimates the most kyy make is around Rm 12 to rm 16m since his cost is much higher and start to sell much earlier loh...!!

most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!


Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 10, 2018 05:08 PM | Report Abuse

Raider,

Please note that when I said some people got slaughtered, it was not referring to you, or some others who have bought HY below RM10, or even much cheaper. I am talking about in general.

Look at the chart when the share price of HY when it was during the euphoria when it was chased up to RM19 with many articles and countless promotion in HY's thread, the spike of activities at the height around RM19, and sharp correction to RM12, and then another sharp correction to RM8+, the frenzy buying and selling, and the boasting about exaggerated return with margin finance, and you tell me nobody got "killed"?

Where did the gain of RM100+m come from? From the sky?
10/03/2018 17:13
kcchongnz Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 02:56 PM | Report Abuse
ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.

I look at investing in different way than you do, and I am not saying my view is more superior than yours.

I have mentioned EPS, basing on one year results and with some non-recurring items, is not a good measure of value.

Cash flows and free cash flows suffer the same faith, or even more if basing on a single year number, as cash flows which involves change in working capital from one year to another, and more so free cash flows, when capital expenses are concerned, are very lumpy. A minimum of 3-5 years has to be taken into account.
10/03/2018 17:19
Jason33 no way, it was ikan bilis who get burned the most. institution won't be that stupid. If institution want to buy, the price won't go up.

"most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!"
10/03/2018 17:22
probability above 17 it was only for few days...till news came out saying over bought..

by the way...what had happened to HY now... to say institution wont be that stupid'"

why is it stupid?


Posted by Jason33 > Mar 10, 2018 05:22 PM | Report Abuse

no way, it was ikan bilis who get burned the most. institution won't be that stupid. If institution want to buy, the price won't go up.

"most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!"
10/03/2018 17:32
probability Jason,

stupid because buying "'in a manner it was going up fast from 17..and not slowly"..or stupid because buying above 17 itself?
10/03/2018 17:37
arv18 Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.

There were other O&G counters with super-charged price movements.

1) Sapura from 67c - RM1 (took 3 days) ~ 50% jump in 3 days
2) UMW O&G 29c - 48c ~65% in 12 days

Non O&G

- Toyo Ink -WA that jumped from 0.005c to 22c ~4300% in 2 days

Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.

If you want to talk about killers/scammers, may I suggest

1) Bitconnect
2) Gennevva Gold
3) ATLANTIC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
(How to Get 4% to 6% Return On Investment (ROI) Every Friday)

Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...

....

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 10, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 02:56 PM | Report Abuse
ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.
10/03/2018 17:46
Cockrider RAIDER BET WITH U BY...END 31-12-2017....EVERGREEN WILL BE ABOVE RM 1.OO LOH...!!

U DARE BET OR NOT ??

OVER BET WILL NOT BE SO SILLY...LIKE DISAPPEAR FROM I3...MAYBE WE START WITH A BET OF RM 100K LOH....!!

IF AGREE WE BOTH DEPOSIT RM 100K WITH THE LAWYER LOH..!! OK ??
10/03/2018 17:50
Cockrider U MUST UNDERSTAND MAH....!!
ALOT OF PEOPLE BUY INTO BJC RM 0.50 & ABOVE, STUCKED FOR MANY YEARS & WANT TO URGENTLY TO GET OUT LOH...!!
THATS WHY THERE ARE MANY SELLERS BUT IT CLEARING LOH...!!

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CONSIST OF VALUATION BASE ON EARNINGS BASIS AND BASED ON ASSETS BASIS LOH...!!

ONCE ALL SELLER SUPPLIES IS TAKEN OUT IT CAN FLY LOH....!!
THATS WHY DRB FLY LOH...!!

ALSO MUCH REMEMBER YESTERDAY THE STOCK SHOW NEGATIVE EPS, TODAY AND FUTURE, IT MAY SHOW STRONG EARNINGS TOO LOH...!!

U NEED TO IDENTIFY THIS KIND OF STOCK LOH....!!

BJC IS THIS KIND OF STOCK BASED ON RAIDER RESEARCH LOH...!!
10/03/2018 17:51
kcchongnz Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse
Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.
Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...


Obsession? You sure understand what the word means?

This is the only article I have written on HY, out of 300+ articles.


Or are you too obsessed that you cannot stand me telling the newbies to be careful of the stock market? And why?

I wish to read one of your sharing in i3invstor, and see what you have to offer, please!
10/03/2018 17:54
kcchongnz Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.


Did I say HY bothers me? Where?

I made money from HY, twice, never lost once. My friends made a lot of money from it.

What did I do to angrify you? Just because I share what I think?
10/03/2018 17:58
myongcc5 80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!
10/03/2018 18:01
kcchongnz Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:01 PM | Report Abuse
80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!


Just like this one below. Simply can't understand what I wrote in simple English and simply throw tantrums like a little baby.


Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.
- Toyo Ink -WA that jumped from 0.005c to 22c ~4300% in 2 days
Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.
Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...
10/03/2018 18:11
myongcc5 KC, u r good, as fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always
10/03/2018 18:17
arv18 whatever tan sri. keep deflecting. you're fooling no one.



Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:01 PM | Report Abuse
80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!

Just like this one below. Simply can't understand what I wrote in simple English and simply throw tantrums like a little baby.
10/03/2018 18:19
kcchongnz Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

KC, fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always


Thank you very much. You are right. This keeps me carry on sharing.

Oh yeah, I remember someone here mentioned about "troll" before. Now I understand what it means.
10/03/2018 18:45
ozzie75 Thank you for the alternative insight, kcchongnz.
10/03/2018 18:54
klee Arv18,you sounded like a smart ass.Where are your i3 records?
10/03/2018 19:06
arv18 I'm sick of hearing you go on and on about HY. thats all. If you want to discuss stock manipulation etc, , make it a wide ranging topic.

You've also failed to investigate claims of a certain inidividual. If this person really did invest in HY at ~ 100 mil level, how is it that a

1) Substantial Shareholder declaration was never filed?

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP
of HY from RM2.8 Bil - RM5.6 Billion?

3) With so many other sharp price movements, from Pansar, UMWOG, Yoyoink, Caely, Notion Vtec etc why focus on just this counter?

Again. stop deflecting. Trolling is what YOU'RE doing, publishing this nonsense article.


Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse
KC, fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always

Thank you very much. You are right. This keeps me carry on sharing.

Oh yeah, I remember someone here mentioned about "troll" before. Now I understand what it means.
10/03/2018 19:14
arv18 At the end of the day, who really gies a damn about a Large Cap counter moving up from RM8- RM19?

Nestle just went from RM100 - RM145.

Are you going to write an essay about that?

Why is Public Bank only trading at a PE 15?

So many mysteries....
10/03/2018 19:26
kcchongnz Let me answer your questions one by one.
arv18 I'm sick of hearing you go on and on about HY. thats all. If you want to discuss stock manipulation etc, , make it a wide ranging topic.
ME: IS MY ARTICLE ABOUT STOCK MANIPULATION, OR IS IT A WIDE RANGE OF TOPICS? HAVE YOU READ MY ARTICLE AND MORE IMPORTANT, UNDERSTAND WHAT HAVE BEEN CONVETYED?

You've also failed to investigate claims of a certain inidividual. If this person really did invest in HY at ~ 100 mil level, how is it that a

ME: WHY DO I HAVE TO “INVESTIGATE” THAT? I AM NOT A PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR, AND FOR WHAT?

1) Substantial Shareholder declaration was never filed?
ME: DID I SAY ANYONE A SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER OF HY IN MY ARTICLE?

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP
of HY from RM2.8 Bil - RM5.6 Billion?
ME: DID I SAY A CERTA INDIVIDUAL THE SOLE PERSON WHO MOVES THE SHARES?

3) With so many other sharp price movements, from Pansar, UMWOG, Yoyoink, Caely, Notion Vtec etc why focus on just this counter?
ME: WHY WOULD I WANT TO TALK ABOUT OTHERS SHARES MENTIONED WHICH I NEVER FOLLOW THEIR PRICE MOVEMENT? NOTHING ELSE TO DO?

Again. stop deflecting. Trolling is what YOU'RE doing, publishing this nonsense article.

ME: WE CAN PUT IN A VOTE HERE TO SEE WHO IS A TROLL, YOU OR ME?
PLEASE READ THROUGH ALL THE COMMENTS TO SEE THE CONSENSUS IF IT IS A NONSENSE ARTICLE.

INSTEAD OF THROWING YOUR TANTRUM ON ME, WHY SHARE SOMETHING, WRITE AN ARTICLE, RECOMMEND A SHARE WITH YOUR THESIS ETC. TO SHOW ME HOW GOOD YOU ARE?
10/03/2018 19:30
arv18 Calm down and have a bloody beer or something... jeez.
10/03/2018 19:33
kcchongnz Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 07:26 PM | Report Abuse
At the end of the day, who really gies a damn about a Large Cap counter moving up from RM8- RM19?
Nestle just went from RM100 - RM145.
Are you going to write an essay about that?
Why is Public Bank only trading at a PE 15?
So many mysteries....


If I, or somebody else writes an article about the above, or any misery of investing how does it offend you?

What is not a nonsensical article?

Can you write one and show us?

Have you written one?
10/03/2018 19:34
klee This is what i am saying arv18.Even pasar malam vendors can talk cock and criticize everyone and everything.

ME: WE CAN PUT IN A VOTE HERE TO SEE WHO IS A TROLL, YOU OR ME?
PLEASE READ THROUGH ALL THE COMMENTS TO SEE THE CONSENSUS IF IT IS A NONSENSE ARTICLE.

INSTEAD OF THROWING YOUR TANTRUM ON ME, WHY SHARE SOMETHING, WRITE AN ARTICLE, RECOMMEND A SHARE WITH YOUR THESIS ETC. TO SHOW ME HOW GOOD YOU ARE?
10/03/2018 19:36
arv18 I'm not offended. Or angry. Just sick of seeing more crap on HY, thats all.

I don't pretend to know how everything in the market works.

But I do know stock promotion has a much bigger part to play than TA or FA.

Everyone does it. Sell-side analysts. Boiler Rooms. Yourself included.
10/03/2018 20:03
arv18 To my mind, without anyone controlling a substantial portion of the shares,

Only someone looking to build a new cornerstone holding like LTAT, KWSP etc

Mutual Funds

or the Investment Banks

would be able to move the stock this much this quickly. But does it really matter?

The story has yet to be written. For all we know, the stock price recovers to above RM18
in the next 12 months.
10/03/2018 20:20
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