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kcchongnz blog

Author: kcchongnz   |   Latest post: Sat, 19 May 2018, 07:34 PM

 

Eversendai show me the cash kcchongnz

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I wrote an article two days ago, “How to get rich quick in stock market” to illustrate the perils of margin finance using Sendai as an example in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/151060.jsp

This article has nothing to do if the company is doing well or not. It merely shows that if a youngster who have been touted to use margin finance to buy Sendai 6 months ago at RM1.37 with 50% margin finance would have lost every single sen of his money with the share price now at 71 sen. The promoter of sailang Sendai at that time is none other than the commentator below, with a different nickname though.

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 17, 2018 05:54 PM | Report Abuse

Sendai quarterly results 2017 Q1 to Q4
Pretax............18.7m, 25.7m, 19.7 m, 31.7 m
eps...............2.0 sen, 2.7 sen, 2.7 sen, 3.9 sen
Price high low for the year.............60 sen to $1.40
showing consistent and improving profitability...
enough range to make some real money.
trailing 12 m PE 6.4..............not a bad one to make some real money.
and the company delivered increasing profits.
alas, one badly advised private placement negated all their good work.

Well, if you have read his numerous comments in i3investor, you would know that person hates people talking about PE ratio, and anything related to value investing. He only talks about BS. Now he is talking about earnings, and the associated PE ratio. Fascinating! I am delighted to have a discussion with him, now.

 

Six months ago, I have shared my analysis on Sendai, “Banging on EverSendai, risk and return”, quite a detail one in my opinion, in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/132084.jsp

Basically, I discussed about the problems of the construction industry, the poor past performance in earnings and cash flows of Sendai, its precarious balance sheet, and many perceived risks it is facing. Hence, although it has a huge order book, it may not present a good investment.

The share price of Eversendai was RM1.03 then.

How has all these turn out since 6 months ago?

What the commentator posted above is true. Sendai seems to have turnaround with another two quarters of profit, a net annual profit of RM86.5m, or earnings per share of 11 sen.

That was a drastic turnaround from a loss of 36 sen a year ago to a commendable profit of 11 sen a share. But why was the share price not rising, but instead continue to slide to close at 71 sen today, for a loss of 30% in 6 months? Has the market got it all wrong?

Basically, it boils down to one word, “cash”.

 

Cash is king

Few businesses can survive long without the ability to generate cash. Basically, a business needs to pay all the expenses such as administration, marketing, workers, plant and equipment, materials etc. to produce goods and services. After deducting cash to pay for all these stuff, and sold or executed the services and receive cash, you get some cash left over from the operations, termed cash flows from operations (CFFO). The net income/profit (NI) or earnings figure, the income statement’s “bottom line,” is based on the principles of accrual accounting. Accrual accounting attempts to match expenses with revenues regardless of when the cash transactions that deal with the creation of the goods being sold and the receipt from the sale occurred. In essence, accrual accounting is not entirely concerned with when “cash trades hands.” However, over a long period of time, the cash figure should match closely the net profit figure.

FCF is whatever cash is left after all operating expenses, including capital expenses for growth, like buying new plant and machineries for growth. FCF is like the end all goal of companies. The point is to do so well that you make so much money that even after all the checks written to expand the business you still have a lot of cash. With this FCF a company can pay out dividend consistently, buy back its shares when they are selling cheap, pare down loans, or invest in other profitable ventures, all done without assuming more debts, or issuing more shares.

 

Sendai, show me the cash

Sendai made a profit of RM86.5m for the financial year ended 31st December 2017. First, I would like to see its cash increases, or total borrowings decrease. In Sendai’s case, as it is heavily in debts, I would expect its net borrowings, i.e. total debts less cash, decreased with the profit. However, the latest balance sheet does not show this is the case. Instead, the cash in the balance sheet decreased by M110m from RM387m to RM277m, and net borrowings increased by another RM90m. That has not taken into consideration of some cash received of about RM10m from private placement exercise during the same period.

Where has the “profit” gone? The suckers of cash are a few of them.

If you look at the Income Statement, you would notice that there is this “Other income” of RM24.5m, which the major part of it is “Unrealized foreign exchange gain”. This contributes nothing to the cash in the balance sheet, but merely an accounting number, just like booking a gain for a revaluation of a piece of land.

Another RM100m additional cash was tied up in inventories to a total of RM279m. Another additional RM118m was tied up in “I owe you” by clients owing you more, making the total trade receivables and contract claims of a whopping RM1.8 billion.

Take note that the profit for the year was only RM86.5m, but total clients owing is RM1.8 billion! With the turnover, it would takes one full year to collect your work done, if they were able to be collected all. What kind of business is this?

The cash flow statement, however, shows a good net CFFO of RM118m. This is an adjustment from the non-cash and non-operating items from the income statements. This CFFO was saved by a couple of items, number one in paying creditors later, with an additional RM108m in payable withheld. The other one, which to me is abnormal, by re-allocating the interest cost of RM32m, to the cash flows from financing activities. Interest cost, unlike borrowings, is usually under operating activities and will lower CFFO, and I do not see the logic of putting it under financing activities. This saved Sendai from cash trap in spending another RM97m in capital expenses last financial year.

Note that this precarious cash flow position of Sendai is not just last year, but most, if not all the time as shown in my previous article, Banging on EverSendai, risk and return”.

 

Coming back to the comments of the person below,

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 17, 2018 05:54 PM | Report Abuse

Sendai quarterly results 2017 Q1 to Q4
Price high low for the year.............60 sen to $1.40
showing consistent and improving profitability...
enough range to make some real money.
trailing 12 m PE 6.4..............not a bad one to make some real money.
and the company delivered increasing profits.
alas, one badly advised private placement negated all their good work.

 

Did you, or those youngsters and newbies whom you asked them to sailing with margin finance when it was trading RM1.35, really make money?

Do you know now why the price of Sendai has slipped to 71 sen, and at a PE ratio at 6.4?

Do you really believe in investing using PE ratio?

“Private placement negates all their good work?”

As far as I know, investment bankers are professionals in things like corporate exercises. The management also knows better than anyone else what is best for them too on how and where they can get more cash.

Without money from private placement, where does the company get money for working capital and capital expenses? Rights issues, more bank borrowings, bond issues? Which is easier, cheaper and faster?

 

Conclusion

Making money in the stock market is not easy as many people think. In fact, it is difficult for most retail investors. It is very silly to think that others are so kind to help you to make money in the stock market. Nobody will do that.

In order to be successful in investing, forget about get-rich-quick, one has to depend on none other than yourselves. He must understand the business, and how it makes money, and if it is a good business. They are all presented in the financial statements and annual reports. This is the language of business.

More importantly, one must know how to value the business. You have seen that just knowing the simplistic earnings, and the associated PE ratio, is far from being able to be successful in investing. In fact, it is dangerous to know just a little and become over-confident.

Even if you know how to do all these, it doesn’t mean you can get-rich-quick, but likely you would be able to avoid most of the pitfalls in investing. If you don’t lose, overall you should be able to get satisfactory return over the long-term. That is what an ordinary investor should strive for.

There are many resources out there for one to obtain this knowledge if he wishes to invest safely to build long-term wealth, even for free. If you wish to learn about them in a structured manner, below is one of the providers out there, and you may write to him,

ckc13invest@gmail.com

 

KC Chong

 

 

 

 

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  6 people like this.
 
hollandking by the price? If by the price, i would have bought oredi, is what calvin n kcchongz pointed so clearly
20/03/2018 16:48
hollandking xinquan was a good example how super investor didnt see what was going on but many oredi know what was going on. So why did he missed that critical point?
20/03/2018 16:50
qqq3 sted by hollandking > Mar 20, 2018 04:46 PM | Report Abuse

sometimes u need common sense to be able to see , and kchchongz n calvin pointed it out quite clearly.
====================================================

at least I know you and calvin don't know the meaning of unqualified auditor report......
20/03/2018 16:52
hollandking my stand very simple. Dont touch sendai. You please sialang sendai. I want to see your ending.
20/03/2018 16:53
qqq3 mr king

xinquan is managed by conmen...from the very beginning.

Tan Sri Sendai whole family asset is in this Company......

big difference
20/03/2018 16:55
hollandking no need talk so much, go sialang sendai.
20/03/2018 16:56
kcchongnz Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 01:25 AM | Report Abuse
Again kc, you low life personal attack on uncle Kyy again...u knew he is 2nd largest in Sendai..bad karma, you will have your day very soon

I must have offended you but I don't know why.

Which part of the article I have mentioned names? Maybe except responding to my friend qqq.

Which part of the article I have launched any personal attack?

Attack on what issue? Sharing on how to read and interpret financial statement to avoid pitfalls in investing to those who are interested?

"2nd largest in Sendai"? Does it appear to you that I care? So, you idolizing rich and famous? Go somewhere else lah.

"My day will come"? What day?
20/03/2018 16:56
qqq3 since I wrote some much about sendai....I just bought some more Sendai.....risk reward surely favors me, not the selller.......
20/03/2018 16:57
hollandking ok, buy more, hope u make it big
20/03/2018 16:58
qqq3 Me: Take note of the financing cost of RM31m being placed under cash flows from financing activities. Is that a normal thing to do, my dear accountant? Not paying interest but consider it as new loan? How long can the company carry on doing that?
======================


financing cost $ 31 million , you say?

for a company with $ 2 billion turnover...and you worried? come on la.
20/03/2018 17:03
qqq3 kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?
20/03/2018 17:04
qqq3 kc

the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......

This is not the time to get worried over little details......
20/03/2018 17:09
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse
kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?

No knowledgeable investor will look at interest as a percentage of sales. So you do that? Good on you. So if you do billions of business and earning a pittance, with earnings can't even cover interest, is good? Good on you.

Actually savvy investors look more on cash flows coverage so that there is enough cash to pay interest as a minimum. And as cash flows are lumpy, we use 3-5 years of cash flows to check against interest payment to see if the company's cash flow is even enough to pay interest.

My computer is out and I can't calculate that. Can you do that for me ah? What is the cash flows coverage for the last 3-5 years?
20/03/2018 17:16
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:09 PM | Report Abuse
kc
the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......
This is not the time to get worried over little details......

Well, I don't know about you, but if I have sailang on Sendai with 50% margin 6 months ago at RM1.35 when it was touted by you all over i3investor to do so, my balls also shrink man!
20/03/2018 17:19
stockraider qqq just a amateur...very naive loh....!!

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 20, 2018 05:16 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse
kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?

No knowledgeable investor will look at interest as a percentage of sales. So you do that? Good on you. So if you do billions of business and earning a pittance, with earnings can't even cover interest, is good? Good on you.

Actually savvy investors look more on cash flows coverage so that there is enough cash to pay interest as a minimum. And as cash flows are lumpy, we use 3-5 years of cash flows to check against interest payment to see if the company's cash flow is even enough to pay interest.

My computer is out and I can't calculate that. Can you do that for me ah? What is the cash flows coverage for the last 3-5 years?
20/03/2018 17:21
John_Lee Kcchongnz and qqq3,

I hope I can help with your interest expense debate:

(The other one, which to me is abnormal, by re-allocating the interest cost of RM32m, to the cash flows from financing activities. Interest cost, unlike borrowings, is usually under operating activities and will lower CFFO, and I do not see the logic of putting it under financing activities.)

---------- ---------- ----------

This is a non-issue actually. It is just a matter of presentation on the statement of cash flows. Below is taken from MFRS 107:

"Interest paid and interest and dividends received may be classified as operating cash flows because they enter into the determination of profit or loss. Alternatively, interest paid and interest and dividends received may be classified as financing cash flows and investing cash flows respectively, because they are costs of obtaining financial resources or returns on investments."
20/03/2018 17:38
qqq3 kc/ raider


good managing tip for you both....any expenses, when it is a minute proportion of cash flow from sales, if you are managing the thing, you know you got maximum flexibility and no need to lose sleep over it.
20/03/2018 17:50
stockraider Financing cost is normally measure as % against profit to determine interest cover or against current assets excluding cash for working capital financing or against liabilities to determine cost of funding loh...!!

Very rare or seldom against sales loh.....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

kc...my calculator cannot calculate....what is the percentage of financing cost to sales is that?
20/03/2018 17:53
qqq3 that is the trouble with you, raider....you are lost when ever some thing is not in your textbook.......

that is why you chase HY at $19.
20/03/2018 17:56
John_Lee stockraider and qqq3,

The most common measure in determining the ability of a company to pay it's interest expense is via calculating the Interest Coverage Ratio.

That is determined via using (Earnings Before Interest & Tax)/(Interest Expense).

The larger the ratio, the better.
20/03/2018 18:04
kcchongnz Thank you John Lee. At least now we have a genuine accountant enlightening us. I am not an accountant and I appreciate your input.

You are right in your comment. For me, I am more interested in the net cash flow from operations, i.e. after deduction of tax and payment of interest to the debt holders. That is what I get as a common shareholder. If a company earns RM50m, and have to pay interest of RM60m, for the ordinary business, the company does no justice to me as a shareholder.

If the accountant in the above case assigns that interest payment under "financing activities", he is hiding something from me as a shareholder, as most shareholders can't see it, thinking the company is doing fantastic in cash flows.

Interest and dividend received, as in bank deposits, or investments, I believe it is more justifiable to place under investing or financing activities.

So it may be a non-issue in financial reporting, but not a good presentation to shareholders, in my opinion.



Posted by John_Lee > Mar 20, 2018 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz and qqq3,

I hope I can help with your interest expense debate:
20/03/2018 18:20
kcchongnz No. 1 I don’t like to carry out personal attack in investment sharing. For what? I have never used a foul word in my 315 articles I have written in i3investor. I have never call names in the 315 articles.

No. 2 Why do I have to “attack” someone when Sendai at 1.40, HYC at 18 and Jaks above 1.80?

However, I did share a number of my views on Jaks and Sendai, especially when I saw others touting the public to use margin to “sailang” Jaks and Sendai when their share prices were closed to their peaks in the link below.

1) Is Jaks a big fat frog jumping all around? kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Mon, 22 May 2017, 01:29 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp

2) Banging on Eversendai: Risk and Return kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Tue, 12 Sep 2017, 07:11 PM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/132084.jsp

3) Margin Finance, Ever-Sendai: A real time case study kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Wed, 27 Sep 2017, 07:49 PM
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/133708.jsp

4) Ever-Sendai: An investment filled with business sense? kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Sun, 8 Oct 2017, 12:47 AM
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/134621.jsp

I share my analysis for these companies because they are hot stocks being touted relentlessly in i3investor to use margin finance, to provide alternate views for you guys to consider. I am sure those who took my views would have avoided losing big in these two stocks.

Did I mention any personality, or condemn the stocks, or just share my detail analysis of their business and performance?

But what do I get in return? The relentless attacks, such as the below, and many others.


Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 07:20 AM | Report Abuse
KC, why dont write to attack uncle Kyy when sendai at 1.40, HYC at above 18 and Jaks above 1.80? Why you so chicken and only came out to shout when overall market drop ?

Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 20, 2018 07:21 AM | Report Abuse
If your intention is noble, you should came out to warn when stock at peak...why only came out when drop?
20/03/2018 18:58
CharlesT Kc is a good tai chi master...can always beat the cow behind the mountain...there are more than 1000 counters in bursa but he always aimed at certain stocks only...

Anyway i like it.keep it up!!
20/03/2018 19:18
kcchongnz Posted by cheated > Mar 20, 2018 10:32 AM | Report Abuse
kc a cheat. He just praised Hengyuan very good at RM 9+ last week. What happen to HRC today?


I priased Hengyuan last week? How did I?

You must be cheated by your own stupidity. Blame it on yourself.
20/03/2018 20:33
CharlesT Lol
20/03/2018 21:01
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 05:09 PM | Report Abuse
kc
the big difference between winners and losers is...winners know when to get worried and when to sailang.......
This is not the time to get worried over little details......


You call these little details?

1) Growing receivables. With the turnover and "I owe you", on average, each job Sendai does takes a full year, after completion, to collect the money. How to tahan the serious cash flows problem?

2) Owing banks RM1.15 billion now. With "profit" of RM86.5m last year, losing like hell the previous year, and huge negative free cash flows for the last 5 years, how to pay debts, or just interest of the debts?

3) Where to find enough working capitals and capex money when the private placement had been halted, and banks look at the precarious balance sheet and refuse to lend?

4) If there is a financial crisis and banks want to recall money, where to find money?

5) If oil price drops and the Arab countries can't pay, how?

No worries? I know you no worry because you just mong cha cha.
20/03/2018 21:05
hollandking hmmh, an interesting black hole
20/03/2018 21:15
kcchongnz At least one person here understand what I wrote, the message I tried to convey. This makes me going.


Posted by 3iii > Mar 20, 2018 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

KC posted on the accounting of Sendai and highlighted many points in the financial statements. Thanks, they were most interesting and revealing.

I believe you stated the facts and the reasons fairly.

For those disagreeable with this article, please challenge KC on the points he raised, rather than insinuating (true or otherwise) on other issues related or unrelated.

Thks.
20/03/2018 21:58
calvintaneng No worries? I know you no worry because you just mong cha cha.


HAHAHA!! HAHAHA!!

"MONG CHA CHA" IS THE CORRECT DESCRIPTION!!!

ALL WHO BOUGHT INTO SENDAI TODAY MIRRORS THOSE WHO BOUGHT MEGAN MEDIA LAST TIME!!
20/03/2018 22:09
calvintaneng 4. RECEIVABLES IS NOT CASH

This was when I bought into Megan Media at around 67.5 cents. From the Balance Sheet Megan Media showed a P/E of only 3. NTA at over Rm2.00. It also pay a small dividend.

So many have been tricked by the “blue ray” disc hype touted by Megan Media Bosses. However, My Johor Sifu stood his ground & rejected buying into this popular stock which so many others bought.

Why? He questioned the High Amount of RECEIVABLES In Megan Media’s Accounts. RECEIVABLE IS NOT CASH. What is CASH Then? According to my Johor SIFU The Smart Accountant, “CASH IS ONLY CASH IF THE CASH IS RECEIVED AND DEPOSITED IN THE BANK”.

Being not sure I still held on to my Megan Media shares and watched it carefully. Then one day to my surprise, I saw Insider selling 3 million Megan Media shares! And then they unloaded another 5 million shares! Insiders are bailing out!! The pilots are parachuting!!

Straight away I called my Remisier to sell off every Media Megan shares at 66 cents for a small loss. Next day to my chagrin Megan Media even rose to touch 70 cents. If only I had sold one day later? Then I would have made some profit? Why the hurry? Weeks passed. Then one day the horrendous result came out. Megan Media went limit down!

It plummeted to just over 30 cents. One Mr Teh thought it was bargain time & loaded up. Loading up falling knives? Megan Media went bankrupt and got delisted. It was found out later that all the Blue Ray Disc Factories were non existent. RECEIVABLES WERE ALL FAKE.

http://eaglevisioninvest.com/top-10-valuable-investment-secrets-my-johor-sifu-taught-me/
20/03/2018 22:11
arv18 Hey, lets take a step back from this micro ANALysis of the accounts for a moment.

Sendai. Some history.

1983
Eversendai commenced its operations in 1983 as a structural steel erection company in Malaysia and is now a full-fledged matured, dynamic and well-established structural steel turnkey contractor, civil contractor and a specialist power plant contractor with an impeccable International track record.

Eversendai has carved a name for itself as an industry leader in the structural steel design, fabrication and erection of steelwork for high rise buildings, heavy industrial plants, stadiums, steel bridges, roof structures, infrastructure projects and installation of mechanical and electrical works for power plants and industrial plants.

Present:

Most recently, Eversendai ventured into the Oil & Gas market and immediately established the company as a highly capable and skilled fabricator of choice for complex Oil & Gas projects. Eversendai Offshore recently opened a brand new dedicated waterfront Oil & Gas fabrication facility in RAK Maritime City, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE and has seen rapid expansion in this area since its inception.

Point 1)
This company has been and still is a going concern, operational for 35 Years. It has survived multiple downturns Asian Financial, Dot Com, GFC, to outlast other competitors. I think we can all agree that construction is a cut-throat biz/industry.

It shows that the the C-Suite understands and even was able to adapt, taking risks and venturing into the MENA region for work. A good sign. Survival instinct is there. It doesn't rest on its laurels expecting juicy GOVT Contacts like Gamuda etc. Why? Possibly because the boss is not the right colour etc...

Point 2)
O & G downturn in 2014 caught everyone off-guard, leading to payment delays. Im surprised KC has failed to bring this point up. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume others involved in the MENA region, O&G have also faced difficulties.

I'm sure, with the recovery in Brent, we can see some of the payment delays, and backlog be sorted out. Lets wait and see...

Aside:
From and investment standpoint, one has to ask oneself, do I want to invest in construction companies/sector or not? Look at the performance of MRCB, Gamuda, etc. Are they attractive?
Look at the SP Performance. THen make your call.. You needn't spend so much time doing a Deep Dive into accounts. This is a Cyclical and Very Challenging industry, the first to feel any recessionary or 'black swan' type shocks.
21/03/2018 06:28
calvintaneng arv18
Sendai started in 1983. Both Lehman Brothers and Bearstern have longer history than that..crossing 100 years.

Tramsmile was started in 1993 with political support. Even Robert Kuok and Pos were in Top 30 shareholders.

And from surface reading Transmile reported good profits. Its shares rose from Rm2.20 to Rm15.00 to become a darling of Funds and Foreign Investors.

AGMs were crowded and jam packed with shareholders.

Yet there was NO CASH.

In the end it was scam accounting. "Profits" were actually losses covered up by fraud accounting.

From Rm15 Transmile plunged to zero. Both Robert Kuok and Pos lost everything. As well as all who followed Robert Kuok buying into Transmile
At the last meeting only 20 people turned up for AGM.

Same goes for Xinquan. As late as 2016 AR the BOD as well as company secretaries reported that Xinguan has over Rmb 1 Billions as Cash in the Bank.

Yet they were unable to provide the next Qr.

BOTH SECRETARIES WHO SIGNED OFF THE ACCOUNTS LATER RESIGNED TOGETHER.
MANY IN POSITION OF POWER ALSO RESIGNED AS WELL.
UNTIL NOW NO ONE HAS VERIFIED THE RMB1 BILLIONS IN XINQUAN BANK IS REAL OR FAKE.

SINCE ALL PAST WITNESSES TO THE FINANCIAL STATUS OF XINQUAN HAVE RESIGNED AND LEFT BURSA SHOULD LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO XINQUAN JUST AS IT DID WITH MEGAN MEDIA AND TRANSMILES.
21/03/2018 08:03
kcchongnz Thank you for your comments. That is basically the purpose of my article here; how to look at and evaluate the business performance of a company, and its risks, before we even look at its price. It can prevent you from losing your hard earned money following the touting of margin on some stocks.


Posted by tah16600 > Mar 20, 2018 10:51 AM | Report Abuse
I read a lot of articles written by KC Chong, all r very good articles, educate not only newbies but also oldbies correct method of investment.

Posted by williaml > Mar 20, 2018 12:08 PM | Report Abuse
For those who comment on share price, market sentiment, personal attack and etc. You are missing the point here.
Like KC point up, when company do not have cash, it becomes insolvent. As easy as that. Unless it can raise money, get loan and have capital injection from investors. It's just not sustainable.
Investing based on earning, PE ratio and "business sense" only are not enough (whoever tell you so is not painting the whole picture). And throw in margin finance, you have a recipe for disaster.
21/03/2018 08:51
hollandking Think is great u guys are teaching ppl how to spot red flags and textbook don't teach you how to link things up, i3 forum commentators do have some ppl teaching stuff and some well, junk stuffs but we just need to take in the good ones and leave the bad ones. In some case, some have decades of experience in the market and they see lots of things in the past, so for those experiences ones, please share your views, hope to learn from everyone.
21/03/2018 08:58
arv18 Calvin.

1) Give the Cap Locks a rest. Stop drinking coffee or stay off the Ritalin for a day...

2) Apples with Apples.

Don't go all over the show, talking about Lehman, Enron and Transmile...

We are talking construction (sector specific). This is how you begin looking at stocks. It's also called Peer Analysis, by another name.

3) The size of the companies. We want to compare companies of similar size. Which can be challenging, especially here, if we can't find someone else who's also doing Structural Steel?

E.g. Comparing Sycal with Gamuda is a waste of time (like comparing Lehman with Sendai)...

4) When looking at construction sector, you might want to look at the specialities, like equipment (Favelle) or Piling Services (Econpile, Pintaras).
21/03/2018 09:13
3iii In 2016, sendai traded around 50 sen. Its share price climbed in the first half of 2017.

Was this share price rise due to fundamentals? No. It coincided with the entry of KYY into this share. (It is remarkable to see how KYY can single handedly, through his big buying or big selling can move the share prices of his stocks significantly.)

Today the price of sendai is 70 sen per share. This price is within its usual price range of between 50 sen and $1.00 since 2014.

It is an opinion, which is based on the price activities of sendai in 1H of 2017, the average price paid for sendai by KYY was higher than the 70 sen per share.

KYY is now holding a huge amount of sendai share.

As elucidated by KC, sendai has low quality earnings which generated no cash but debts. Though the finances may improve in the future, it is presently in a tight cash situation. Thus, it is not surprising that it has to raise cash through either equity or borrowings.

Its borrowings are already huge and raising debts would be difficult given its poor cash flow situations today, unless this can improve significantly quickly. Selling assets to raise cash is another option. Sendai has chosen to raise funds through private placement of shares at a certain price. KYY wrote on this in an article which was interesting reading.

Is this share placement price above or below KYY's average share price investment in sendai? How will this affect KYY's shareholdings in sendai?


Additional note: sendai has projects in Qatar. Due to the embargo by Saudi, the cost of doing projects in Qatar has increased unexpectedly. Whether this will eat into the thin profit margins of sendai or whether sendai can pass on the cost to the owner is of interest.
21/03/2018 09:29
qqq3 and who is the coward keep deleting my posts?
21/03/2018 09:46
qqq3 Sendai.....revenue for 2017 $ 1.8 billion.

Balance Sheet shows Amount due from customers under contract $1 billion ( 2016 $ 1 billion)
Trade receivables $ 600,000 ( 2016 $ 600,000)

No change , and no increase.

If KC/ Calvin wants to do a micro analysis and find reasons to worry....go ahead, no body stops you.....there are after all, another 1,000 companies out there.

ps.....By the time the balance Sheet has been cleaned up, I would be enjoying my rewards already.


ps...if you find companies where there are no more Amounts due from customers, its probably because no more customers.

ps...a significant portion of the Amount Due from customer is work done on 2 oil rigs to be delivered to customers ( related party) in 2018.......
21/03/2018 09:48
qqq3 rather than why not Sendai....there is the other side of the coin which is Why Sendai?

This is a genuine home grown multi national steel fabricator and contractor involved in many of the most iconic structures across Asia.

A rags to riches story, a successful story that serves as great example to all Malaysians.
21/03/2018 09:57
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 04:42 PM | Report Abuse
why is professor kc so kiasu that operating surplus must show up in cash? that balance sheet to balance sheet must see increasing cash ?


Tell us frankly. Were you really an accountant?
21/03/2018 11:08
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Mar 20, 2018 04:20 PM | Report Abuse
kc

maximum money is make when you are willing to take some risks and things work out in your favor.......

Me: The problem is you don't even understand what the risks are, and simply shout sailang here and there, just hope that these unknowable risks work in your favour. What is the probability of success with your kind of mindset?

here, I refer to the $ 1 billion in the Balance Sheet under the heading Amounts due by customers..( the figure have not changed in 2017)..if there is no more amounts due by customers, its perhaps because they are no more customers.

Me: In most construction works, it will take about 30 days to the longest 90 days to get payment for work done. The receivables here means for each piece of work done, Sendai takes 360 days to get payment for all these years.

As an accountant as claimed yourself to be one, do you understand what the implication is?

Note the net margin is only in the low single digit this year when it makes money. We haven't even talk about how much it lost last year yet!

It is highly probable that a lot of the receivables are disputable.
21/03/2018 13:38
kcchongnz John Lee,

Wise words. Thank you.
21/03/2018 14:49
alenac Very interesting arguments on Eversendai. Time will tell who is right? But the prospect of collecting long "overdue" debts can be a worry to any investors who wish to sailang all their money into a hole which you may not know how deep you would fall. Perhaps qqq3 may have an edge over many here if he has some information to share or rather in the organization itself to be so confident about the company.
21/03/2018 15:10
Alphabeta Interesting arguments for and against using margin financing on a business with history of volatile earnings, high gearing and risky business model.

I understand that Eversendai has secured 2 units of lift boats – Aryan & Arjun, from Vahana Holdings worth USD180 million in 2014.

The 1st liftboat initially scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2017 has been delayed to 1st quarter of 2018 as certification and commissioning of the lift boat is more stringent than expected.

Vahana Holdings has obtained conditional financing for the 1st lift boat but there is a risk of impairment in FY19 should Vahana fail to secure a charter within 12 months of the boat being ready for delivery as banks will only release payments to Eversendai once a charter contract is secured.

The delivery of the 2nd lift boat which is about half way to completion, scheduled to deliver by 1st half of 2018 but delayed to a later date.

There is a potential of Vahana failing to secure financing for the 2nd lift boat and raising the risk of impairments for Eversendai.

It is not only Eversendai performance that count, the risk include client performance in securing business and financial close.

What is your risk reward expectation?
21/03/2018 17:17
PlsGiveBonus Ponzi is ponzi
Whether got cash or no cash is still a ponzi
Cash rich ponzi doesn’t make it a better ponzi
And bank is a ponzi master.
;)
21/03/2018 17:27
KLCI King SC warns investors over ‘pump and dump’ schemes (Bonescythe is WANTED)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/happyinvest/151465.jsp
21/03/2018 17:46
tah16600 Election fever, better chau
22/03/2018 11:04
qqq3 kc

a significant portion of the Amounts Due from customers $ 1 billion is tied up in the two lift boats.....latest reports suggest these are soon to be delivered and turning into cash.......

plenty of cash....

in the pockets of those who bought recently ( 70 sen to 81 sen now) ...and in the bank account of Sendai.
23/03/2018 11:28
ZXLim KC, sailang means persuade or convince in hokkien.
26/03/2018 13:26
arv18 WoW! Kc. Well done! You've goosed the stock price for everyone!
30/03/2018 09:45


 

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