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Author: richDad1   |   Latest post: Fri, 12 Jan 2018, 09:08 AM

 

(richDad): 3 reasons WHY HENGYUAN is a BUY now

Author:   |    Publish date:


1. The Edge Financial Weekly reported on Hengyuan.  As many fund managers read this,  it will create demand for Hengyuan shares.

2. I can't find a better stock to buy after I sell Hengyuan. I try to find stocks with lower PE than Hengyuan 4x PE and I failed. I try to find stock with earnings growth more than 300% like Hengyuan and I failed.

3. Sometimes admitting mistake and reinvest is good. I was too eager to take profit previously at RM11 + even though I still believe the Target Price is RM15

4. Conclusion : short term target of RM15 now. and I reinvest my money back in HENGYUAN.

5. Vision 2020 for Hengyuan?  This means RM20 target price by year 2020.  PE 7x on RM2.85 in FY2020 for long term.

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Labels: HENGYUAN

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Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
HENGYUAN 14.34 -0.80 (5.28%) 10,168,000 

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Fabien Extraordinaire hahahahaha U-TURN so fast

what a joker
11/12/2017 12:42
PlsGiveBonus Sell all this useless KLCI
And all in Bitcoin
Next TP 30k then 40k 50k 100k
11/12/2017 12:42
SmartyAlek hhaha richdad1 woke up
11/12/2017 12:44
cheoky Nimble mind makes money. Rigid mind also makes money.
11/12/2017 13:13
mmk79 Buy buy buy. Where else u want to Buy such very very undervalued stock?
11/12/2017 13:21
stockraider Finally Richdad come to his senses loh....!!
I always believe richdad quite investment savvy loh..!!
Just that he wrongly analyse & interpreted previously mah..!!

richDad): 3 reasons WHY HENGYUAN is a BUY now

Author: richDad1 | Publish date: Mon, 11 Dec 2017, 12:37 PM

1. The Edge Financial Weekly reported on Hengyuan. As many fund managers read this, it will create demand for Hengyuan shares.

2. I can't find a better stock to buy after I sell Hengyuan. I try to find stocks with lower PE than Hengyuan 4x PE and I failed. I try to find stock with earnings growth more than 300% like Hengyuan and I failed.

3. Sometimes admitting mistake and reinvest is good. I was too eager to take profit previously at RM11 + even though I still believe the Target Price is RM15

4. Conclusion : short term target of RM15 now. and I reinvest my money back in HENGYUAN.

5. Vision 2020 for Hengyuan? This means RM20 target price by year 2020. PE 7x on RM2.85 in FY2020 for long term.

CONCLUSION: IF U MAKE MISTAKE JUST ADMIT IT & BUY BACK LOH...!!
SOMETIME WE ARE WRONG BUT WE MUST RECOVER FROM MISTAKE LOH...!!
11/12/2017 13:24
PlsGiveBonus Bursa = casino/Bitcoin/host
IPO = ICO, scam token, Mlm, jjptr, shit coin
Investor = water fish, bottom feeder
Director = scammer, game maker, jjptr hosting, Mlm hosting

:)
11/12/2017 13:25
PlsGiveBonus Fund manager = comedian
Banker = shitcoin, ico, IPO promoter
Analyst = bubble tea maker
11/12/2017 13:29
mrtai021 When the tide comes down see who's naked swimming
11/12/2017 13:31
stockraider BELOW ARE RICHDAD MISTAKES LOH....!!

WHY HENGYUAN IS STILL GOOD BUY DESPITE RICH DAD THINK OTHERWISE LOH.?

REMEMBER RICHDAD IS A SPECIAL GUY...HE IS THE GUY WHO TELLS THE WHOLE WORLD HENGYUAN TP IS WORTH RM 10.00, WHEN THE HRC PRICE WAS RM 4.00 TO RM 5.00, THUS HIS ANALYSIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED REASONABLY FAIR AND GOOD LOH...!!

BUT REMEMBER FAIR & REASONABLE DOES NOT MEAN THE CURRENT ANALYSIS RIGHT LOH...!!

LETS EXAMINE LOH..!!

richDad): HENGYUAN - 3 reasons why it is a SELL now

Author: richDad1 | Publish date: Tue, 5 Dec 2017, 09:42 AM

1. Refinery margin has declined in 4Q (to be lower than 3Q).
DID THE MARGIN REALLY GOING FALL LEH ??

RAIDER SAY NOT REALLY LOH...!!
IF U BASED ON OCT & NOV ALREADY PASSED THE CRACK SPREAD IS ABOVE USD 10.00 LOH...!!

IF U BASED ON DEC TODATE IT RANGE FROM USD 9 TO 10. BUT NOW LATEST IS USD IS ABOVE USD 9 LOH..!

REMEMBER THIS LOH; WHEN HENGYUAN REPORT 3RD CULMULATIVE EPS OF RM 2.41 PER SHARE, THEY ACTUALLY SAID THE AVERAGE CRACK SPREAD OF USD 8.00 LOH...!!
BUT U NOTICE THAT THE CRACK SPREAD FOR 4TH QTR CURRENTLY, SHOULD EXCEED USD 9.00, THUS THE ESTIMATED 4TH QTR EPS SHOULD BE GOOD BETWEEN RM 0.80 TO RM 1.00 LOH..!!
THUS THE ANTICIPATED ANNUAL 2017 RESULT IS REALLY GOOD AT RM 3.00 TO RM 3.50 LOH...!!

HENGYUAN good earnings for 3Q this year is mainly caused by higher refinery margin caused by HURRICANE HARVEY. MOGAS 92 spread appreciated to the highest level in 2017 in Sep. However, things have normalized since then.
NOT TRUE LOH...HARVEY GIVE THEM SUPERB SPREAD AS HIGH AS USD 14 TO 16, BUT THESE THEY ENJOY FOR A FEW DAYS ONLY LOH...!!

THE REAL GOOD SPREAD MAJORITY IS USD 8 TO 10 LOH...!!
THIS HIGH SPREAD IS DUE TO OVERALL LOW SUPPLY IN THIS INDUSTRY, DUE TO LACK OF INVESTMENT FOR MANY YEARS, AND OLDER REFINERY CLOSING DOWN BCOS UNABLE TO COMPLY WITH STATUTORY ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENT LOH...!

2. Next year earnings may decline due to 2.5 months scheduled downtime.
The link to the 3Q result is here, go to the last page of the PDF file.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcem...
TRUE LOH...BUT EVEN IF U TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION OF 2.5 MTHS SHUTDOWN, THE NETT IMPACT ON EPS STILL REMAIN RM 2.50, WHICH STILL CONSIDER CREDIBLE AND UNDERVALUE BASED ON PE 4.5X COMPARE TO PETDAG PE 20X MAH...!!
THUS, THE IMPACT IS NOT THAT GREAT ON HENGYUAN LOH...!!
IN FACT STRONG EPS IS SUSTAINABLE LOH...!!

3. Stock price already up 116% since May.
In ADDITION I am taking profit now as the outlook for 4Q is not great. The earnings is also expected to decline next year due to the shut down.
THIS RAIDER SAYS THE MAIN CULPRIT IS THE SHARE PRICE LOH...!! RICHDAD ONLY EXPECT TP RM 10.00, BUT WE NAVE EXCEEDED RM 11.00, THUS HE IS SATISFY WITH GAIN AND READY TO SALE LOH..!!
AS FOR EPS EARNINGS,HENGYUAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CREDIBLE, EVEN DURING THE PERIOD OF SHUTDOWN LOH...!!

BUT BASED ON WARREN BUFFET INVESTMENT WAY, IT IS NOT THIS WAY. WHEN U JUST REACHED TP.. U SELL LOH....THE DECISION SHOULD BE WHETHER, THEY ARE MORE POTENTIAL FOR HRC AND SUFFICIENT MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH ?...!!
THE ANS; YES HRC HAS GREAT POTENTIAL MAH...!!

I still maintain my long term Target Price of RM15
THUS IF U STILL MAINTAIN TP RM 15.00, U SHOULD HELD ON HENGYUAN UNTIL AND AT LEAST TP 15.00 SHORT TERM IS REACHED LOH...!!
11/12/2017 13:34
PlsGiveBonus Money = gold = king = Bitcoin = USD = Jacob Rothschild = Petro dollar
:)
11/12/2017 13:41
PlsGiveBonus SC = money game organizer scam organizer.
Central bank = legalized Loan shark to give loan to play casino
Value investing = last resort to restore confident
11/12/2017 13:47
Alex™ Want collect low... Publish sell call.... Then after finish collect... Publish bullish report.
11/12/2017 14:16
PlsGiveBonus 30% Bumi tongkat shares allocation = donation to the king
Robert K = traitor
DR. M = basher
11/12/2017 14:23
PlsGiveBonus Gst = donation to the bubble economy
Penny stock = ICO get dumped by the traders and never recovered.
:)
11/12/2017 14:27
HENGYUAN Sexy Babe @ RM21 Loser remain loser
11/12/2017 14:35
ken LOL
11/12/2017 14:37
PlsGiveBonus High speed trader = Bitcoin hacker, botnet, scam cloud mining, scam faucet
Institutional fund = high class feeder
Component/index stock = high profile scammers

Soon all these high market cap banking stock in KLCI will be replaced by Bitcoin, they are too outdated and too expensive to sustain.

It will crash very ugly very ugly.

EPF fast fast sell during bull market so they can throw all the toilet paper to investors/feeder.
11/12/2017 17:17
Chong Hon god is you and the ghost also you
11/12/2017 19:43
stockraider General Raider says,

It r at a cross road for Hengyuan loh....!!

Tomorrow it will cross rm 12.00 and will challenge the 2005 all time high of rm 12.30 mah...!!

Just be prepared to hold longer term &...big profit be flowing in mah...!!

ASB stockholding on hrc has been depleted & many funds are ready to get in mah......!!

Don be influenced by the naysayers, just have confidence on hengyuan the true champion and the most profitable in klse based on eps mah...!!
11/12/2017 20:06
MrPauper After take profit then ask to sell lo, and after accumulating at lower price then ask to buy again lo.. Nothing more than a hypocrite
11/12/2017 20:08
stockraider Stop complaining loh.....!!
Mr Richdad just want to be kind to correct his mistake officially mah...!!
If he want to be selfish , he can hide and quietly buy back HRC and no one knows loh..!

Richdad is a real gentleman with integrity as he dare to admit his shortcoming loh....!!

Posted by MrPauper > Dec 11, 2017 08:08 PM | Report Abuse

After take profit then ask to sell lo, and after accumulating at lower price then ask to buy again lo.. Nothing more than a hypocrite
11/12/2017 20:15
Yu_and_Mee sometimes, when people see good one one thing, they will always generate good news around and promote with positive information and buried the bad news. Better do own homework
11/12/2017 20:22
SmartyAlek you never know richdad1 was actually buying when HY retraced to 11.00 few days ago. dont forget to go back and read the old article on why you should sell. so does this mean that the buy reasons >>> sell reasons? morale of the story, make your own decision and dont believe what you read. HY TP 15 by end of month.
11/12/2017 20:44
SmartyAlek like what i wrote before, if HY with exploding EPS doesnt shoot up, you can expect the whole BURSA to go down.
11/12/2017 20:46
stockraider THE POWER OF VALUE INVESTMENT

In 2017, traditional value investing has suffered some of the most eye-raising attacks in recent memory.

It started in June, when Goldman Sachs published a widely circulated report showing that following the value approach espoused famously by Fama and French returned a cumulative LOSS of 15% over the past decade. That is a remarkably bad performance in a climate where the S&P 500 has doubled.
This was followed up in October, when notable value-based hedge fund manager David Einhorn (in a note to Greenlight Capital clients) flat-out said he was having "questions regarding whether value investing is a viable strategy". Einhorn and Greenlight are highly respected in the investment world. Nevertheless, his fund is under-performing the S&P 500 by over 11% in 2017, after trailing the market by 3% in 2016 and posting a horrid 2015, with losses of 20% vs. the market's 1.4% gain.

Anecdotally, our experience in pure value strategies has not been particularly impressive, either. We followed Joel Greenblatt's straight value Magic Formula screen "universe" exclusively for 8 years, with a cumulative performance roughly in line with the S&P 500's. In the 2 years since, our two value-based ranked screens ("spells") have underperformed the market by pretty substantial margins, while our growth-based screen has beaten the market by nearly 11% to date.

So what is going on? Is old school value investing really dying? Or are we in an unusual trough for the strategy, that will likely turn around and prove value as the "winning" investment philosophy once again?
Why Is Value Losing?

Both Einhorn and media mogul John Malone have focused the blame on one culprit: Amazon.com (AMZN).
To say Amazon has disrupted not just retail, but the business world at large is an understatement. And now, these prominent investors believe it is disrupting investment modeling itself.

Certainly, Amazon, or Tesla (TSLA) (which Einhorn also fingers), or Netflix (NFLX) cannot be considered attractive investments from a quantitative, value-based perspective. All 3 have minimal or negative GAAP earnings. Only Amazon even generates positive cash flow. And yet those 3 stocks are up 371%, 882%, and 1,577% respectively over the past 5 years. Try to get that from a value strategy!

IF SAY THAT WAY SURELY BITCOIN OUTPERFORMED ANY EQUITY INVESTMENT FOR THE PAST YEAR LOH...!!
SURELY BITCOIN OUTPERFORMANCE BEAT ANY OTHER CONVENTIONAL INVESTMENT LIKE EQUITY, PROPERTIES, BONDS AND EVEN ANY COMMODITIES MAH...!

What's going on? If you asked value-based investors, a few explanations arise. The first is that value is just out of favor vs. growth stocks, and that the climate will revert to the mean - that is, value will once again outperform - in the near future.
The second is that we are in a stock valuation "bubble", where investors expectations for continued growth will prove over-estimated, and the resulting fall in high-flying growth stocks will lead value-based approaches to again outperform.
SO IF U R AN VALUE INVESTORS U R ACTUALLY A CONTRAIAN, YOUR PERFORMANCE NEED LONGER TIME FRAME OF 3 TO 5 YRS TO SHOW RESULT LOH..!!

So, will value investing turn the corner and start outperforming again - as it has historically? TURNING THE CORNER DEFINITELY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHEN LOH ???

RAIDER ASK WHETHER HENGYUAN IS A GROWTH INVESTMENT OR VALUE INVESTMENT LOH...!!
ANS; COMBINATION OF BOTH GROWTH & VALUE LOH...!!

GROWTH BCOS ITS EPS HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 200% LOH...!!

VALUE BCOS ITS PE BELOW 4X AND IT GENERATE RM 3.50 PER SHARE ON CASHFLOW LOH....!!

IF U HAVE BOTH COMBINATION OF GROWTH AND VALUE STATION, LIKE THE CASE LIKE HENGYUAN, IT IS LIKELY U HAS A STRONG ADVANCEMENT IN SHARE PRICE AND LOW RISK IN SHARE PRICE, BCOS OF REALLY THE STOCK HAS MOST MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
11/12/2017 20:55
stockraider A DIFFERENT APPROACH

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway, HAVE beaten the S&P many time frame. Maybe that's an understatement... Buffett has outperformed the market by over 7,000% .

That's because these great investors are not buried in the numbers. They don't use just profit margins or valuation ratios or numbers-based screens to determine their investment decisions.
DESPITE THIS COMPLAIN, QUANTITIVE FIGURE STILL REMAIN A VERY IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE VALUATION OF STOCK & BUSINESS LOH...!!

They focus on the BUSINESSES underlying the stocks. If those businesses have great long term prospects for growth, and can fend off competitors over the long term, AND are reasonably valued based on realistic estimations of their future revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow generation - THAT is where great investments are found.
EASY THAN SAY LOH...THE PRESENT & PAST PERFORMANCE OF YOUR BASES IS A GREAT GUIDE FOR YOUR FUTURE PERFORMANCE INDICATION LOH..!!
ESTIMATION OF FUTURE CANNOT BE A VACUUM LOH....IF NOT IT IS MERE SPECULATION LOH...!!

COMING BACK TO HENGYUAN U NEED TO RECOGNISE HENGYUAN ALMOST 400% SHARE GAIN THIS YR COME FROM THE STRENGTH OF ITS BUSINESS, LIKE ITS HIGH CRACK SPREAD, STRONG CASHFLOW GENERATION AND THE QUALITY OF THE NATURE OF ITS PRODUCTS OFFER COMPRISES OF REPETITIVE HIGH VOLUME ESSENTIAL CONSUMER PRODUCTS OF PETROL, DIESEL AND LPG ETC LOH....!!

THIS FAIR STEADY & STEADY DEMAND HAS SPURRED UPTHRUST OF ITS SHARE PRICE LOH...!!

DESPITE THE 400% SHARE PRICE GAIN TODATE, HENGYUAN IS STILL NOT OVERVALUE, BCOS ITS WEALTH GENERATION, HAD KEEP IN PACE WITH THE SHARE PRICE LOH..!!

IN FACT, BASED ON PE BELOW 4X, HENGYUAN REMAINED A SCREAMING BUY LOH...!!
11/12/2017 20:56
myongcc5 General, too lengthy! I see Screaming buy only.
Tomolo 12.30 no problem
11/12/2017 23:01
ESPESP I hate the person that ask ppl sell for him to collect..
Then aftee collect.. say buy
12/12/2017 07:22
speakup wahlauweh every uncle aunty now a professional Hengyuan analyst.
12/12/2017 10:13
Tai KT what? now is buy again. But, at least you admit it is a mistake on the sell call.
12/12/2017 10:21
speakup biasa lah. human nature.
when sell already, tell everybody to sell
when buy already, tell everybody to buy.


Posted by ESPESP > Dec 12, 2017 07:22 AM | Report Abuse

I hate the person that ask ppl sell for him to collect..
Then aftee collect.. say buy
12/12/2017 10:23
stockraider Raider think different loh;

Richdad is the 1st to advice u to buy at Rm 4.00 & told u TP Rm 10.00, is it not honest and good intention on his part leh ?

I think richdad ask u to sell when above rm 11.00 with sincere intention mah, just that now he realised he make a mistake and want to make amend loh...!!

i believe richdad integrity loh....!!
12/12/2017 10:30
Tai KT It is not a shame to admit mistake. I3 is a platform for sharing.
12/12/2017 10:35
kimhaolian ESPESP I hate the person that ask ppl sell for him to collect..
Then aftee collect.. say buy

wahaha...r u sure? u hate yourself har???!!!! walaoyeh~~~~
12/12/2017 11:31
kimhaolian Nah ESPESP, just in case maybe u fall down and knock your head and forgot what u did just recently 15th Nov

[12:05pm
ESPESP Still dont want sell? later afternoon most likely break RM 10 and go towards RM9.5

15:23
In i3 , u all wan sell let me collect 9.5, i happy lo, dont want then nvm lo. ]

ask people sell at 10+ while you already put buy que at 9.50?

huhu...
I hate myself for doing this~~~~~
12/12/2017 11:40


 

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