Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Wed, 18 Oct 2017, 08:37 PM

 

A New Catalyst for Stocks Through GEELY's Imminent Investments into Proton City/Tg Malim (Calvin Tan

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys,

I am reposting News from Geely Website to See What is in Store for Some Malaysian Stocks

 

Geely to take over Proton, Lotus

 
Chinese car-making giant set to snap up Malaysia’s ailing Proton
 
Surging Chinese car-maker Geely is set to take over Proton and Lotus parent company DRB-Hicom after outlasting France’s PSA Peugeot-Citroen in a bidding duel.

The takeover, which sources insist will be announced this week, will deliver Proton and sports car brand Lotus to Geely, to go along with its Swedish brand, Volvo, its recently announced Lynk&Co brand and the London Taxi Company.

DRB-Hicom asked Malaysia’s stock exchange to halt its trading yesterday, pending a major announcement, believed to be the acquisition of 51 per cent of the ailing concern by the Zhejiang Geely Holding Group.

Geely’s bidding battle with the Dongfeng-controlled PSA (the parent company of Peugeot and Citroen) saw DRB-Hicom shares rise to their highest point in two months, while Geely shares surged to an all-time high on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

The highest-performing stock on the Hang Seng index, with 250 per cent growth in the last 12 months, Geely took over Volvo from Ford in 2010 for $US1.5 billion.

It hasn’t been a smooth process, with Geely pulling out of the bidding process as recently as mid-April, accusing DRB-Hicom of dithering over the selection process.

“They keep changing, today it’s this, tomorrow it’s that,” said Geely chairman Li Shufu said in April. “They haven’t decided what they want.”

The glamour part of the deal gives Geely full control of Lotus Cars, the sports car operation based in Hethel, near Norwich, England, that has racked up losses for decades and has essentially been in a holding pattern since controversial former boss, Dany Bahar, was sacked in 2012.

However, sources have admitted there are other, more significant reasons why the deal makes sense for Geely.

The most important of those is access to Proton’s Tanjung Malim plant, which is barely utilised today but has a capacity of 150,000 cars a year. That plant will give Geely its first right-hand drive production capacity (outside Volvo’s Swedish operations), allowing it to access 84 countries markets that are barred to it today.

The first part of the deal would be to transfer right-hand drive production of the Lynk&Co 01 SUV to Tanjung Malim so the car could be sold in countries like Australia, the UK, Japan and South Africa.

Due to be launched in China late this year, the 01 will also be launched in Europe midway through 2018 and three other models are planned to follow by 2021.

As Malaysia is part of a free-trade ASEAN bloc, it would also allow Geely to export cars tax free to Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

The Lotus takeover brings a surprising benefit for Geely, too. It is pursuing a plastic body-on-aluminium architecture for its London Taxi program, and nobody has more experience at bonding the two materials together than Lotus, which has used the technology effectively for the Elise and Elise-based sports cars for 20 years.

What Geely plans to do with the ailing Proton brand remains a mystery, even to senior Geely insiders, who believed the brand’s future was far from locked in. If it survives at all, it would be as the Group’s budget brand.

Its domestic market share fell from 15.3 per cent in 2015 to just 12.5 per cent in 2016, while total production fell 29 per cent last year to just 72,300 cars.

Geely itself has no such concerns, with its sales growing 63.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2016 to the same period this year, according to JATO Dynamics.

The Geely Group now ranks 13th in the world with 410,830 sales in the first quarter of the year, placing it just behind Daimler and BMW and ahead of Mazda.

It sold 330,000 cars a year before it swallowed up Volvo (which was then selling roughly the same number of cars). Combined into a Group, the two brands moved 1.3 million cars last year and it is aiming for 2.8 million by 2020, with 800,000 of those from Sweden.

Besides its nine Chinese plants, Geely also has factories in Belgium, Sweden and England and builds around 20 different models. It has design studios in Gothenburg, Sweden, Shanghai, Pasadena in California and Barcelona, Spain, employing around 500 designers.

It’s also the biggest of the Chinese outfits, outranking 15th-placed Changan (389,305 cars sold in the first quarter of the year), Great Wall in 19th and GAC in 20th.

Interestingly, while PSA ranks 10th with 682,174 cars sold in the first quarter, just ahead of Daimler and behind Suzuki in size, it is controlled by China’s Dongfeng, which sold only 239,818 cars over the same period and is the 18th biggest car-maker in the world.

But PSA and Dongfeng are also struggling to swallow the recent takeover of General Motors’ German operation, Opel, and PSA itself lost five per cent in sales so far this year.

 

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TheContrarian Proton IPO was RM5 in 1993, the first share I own via my first IPO application. First timer's luck.
20/06/2017 23:45
Apollo Ang u name a 2nd board counter which I dunno....hahaha
20/06/2017 23:47
TheContrarian Proton was main board.
20/06/2017 23:50
Apollo Ang whole 2nd board counters I bought b4.....hahaha,from autoways,buildcon,belton,kpsd,golden frontier,mgr,perfect food,scib,mcl,repco,bridgecon,to union paper and many more
20/06/2017 23:51
TheContrarian There was a then 2nd board counter MESB which went above RM10, right?
20/06/2017 23:52
Apollo Ang yup,more than RM 15 lo.....ipower lagi RM 30 over, I even bought scib at RM 38 sold at RM 33, 3 lots lost 15k in a few hours back then
20/06/2017 23:55
TheContrarian Usually what I did then was apply for every 2nd board IPOs and hold until above RM10.
21/06/2017 00:07
Apollo Ang apply never get one, they only give a few lots to those apply a bit to advertise back then. I remember I apply penas corp at RM8 or RM8.5 10 lots,3 names get nothing when open at above RM 20. even the pantry lady for the company got a few lots
21/06/2017 00:20
calvintaneng Whoa!

Lively discussion here!

Yes,

I also applied for Proton IPO I think in year 1992 (not 1993 I think as it was in the most powerful bull run year, I think)

I applied for 5,000 Proton Shares I think about Rm5.00?

They only gave me 1,000 shares. The monies for the 4,000 shares (about Rm20,000) were refunded by cheque.

Ha! Some crooks intercepted and Cashed the cheques to our horror. But I think Proton or SC compensated all. So nobody suffer losses.

Because of the bad experience I sold off Proton shares at Rm7,000 for 40% profit & left the KLSE.

I totally missed the Strong Crazy Bull Run Year of 1993.

And Dr. M cautioned the people not to chase the hot hot market. But nobody listened to him.

Then Daim Zainuddin came out to warn. He said he only trade for coffee money as market is too high to chase.

Only then in early 1994 KLSE corrected. It ding dong ding until 1997 When Asian Financial Crisis Struck!

I was out of the Share Market.

It was July 2 1997 when I went to change some ringgit for Sing Dollar in Boon Lay, Singapore. No exchange or trading for Ringgit as it was suspended. George Soros caused the Ringgit To collapse, starting with the collapse of Thai Bath.

The Crash was a terrible blood bath for all who got caught fully invested at peak prices.

3 of my friends gone bankrupt

1) Mr. Neoh of Batu Pahat lost Rm5 millions

2) Mr. Ho (S P Motor Boss) lost Rm3 millions

3) Mr. Lee of KL lost Rm500,000

All 3 owed loan sharks & disappeared!
21/06/2017 00:24
Apollo Ang me stuck on BAT 8,000 at RM 25.00 during the diam announcement.drop to RM 17.00 in 3 days.the late mr.goh wee cheng( his sons now directors of macro kiosk)also lost a few mil. he kena force selling his public bank at 80cts only in 1997.
21/06/2017 00:31
Apollo Ang damn repco drop from RM 200 to RM 10,i greedily bought 10 lots within 30 mins rebound to RM 11.70,my fren told me better don't sell and a few days later I sold at RM 6.00 only. spirit a construction 2nd board stock rite?
21/06/2017 00:37
calvintaneng As I was out of the Market I was buying Company vehicles from many Companies in trouble. Both Mr. Randy Teh and myself were having a field day as one after another both Car Dealer & Company gone bankrupt

Randy went to Kepong to bid for the bankrupt liquidation vehicles of REPCO (Repco got delisted)

I remember One Second Board Company called

ESPIRIT

I was buying their last Jeep & also their photocopy machine (for only Rm100).

But that day ESPIRIT Shares were LIMIT UP from Rm1 over Ringgit to 2 over Ringgit.

I was quite excited as I told the ESPIRIT BOSS who sold me the last Company Jeep.

I said, "Your Espirit Stock Went LIMIT UP" Can buy ah?

He said, "I am the Top 3rd or 4th Director in the Company. My borthers are in Top 1 and 2 position."

Today I have sold the last company vehicle. Our office will be closed for forever. I just lost my job. Forget about buting ESPIRIT shares.

In a few days time you will know the truth.

I was dumbfounded why people chased ESPIRIT Shares LIMIT UP that day.

As it turned out all who chased. Did it because they know nothing that ESPIRIT is already finished. Every single one who chased got burnt kaw kaw.

Now I am no longer surprised at the stupidity & madness of men.

I see them in i3 forum again and again.

Men never learn from past history.
21/06/2017 00:38
calvintaneng Yes Espirit a second board

IPO at Rm2.00

At open jumped to Rm8.00

Those were the GoGo years
21/06/2017 00:41
Apollo Ang a fren's fren in 1993,people crazy about stocks but instead he bought a land in Macalister road pg for 1 mil sold to Tropicana for 8 mil a few years ago.many who make in 1993 bangrupt in 1997 but I manage to scrap thru. all because the higher stocks goes up the more scary I become.i will only hentam stocks when they are low, when up a lot I buy more less and less.
21/06/2017 00:46
calvintaneng I remember My Remisier Mr Ng & his customers bought

SH Chan

All of them bought SH Chan around Rm20

Told me to buy but I didn't join them.

SH Chan went up all the way to over Rm55 or more

Up more than Rm30 a share.

So I asked Mr. Ng, "You guys made monies from your chun chun stock called SH Chan?"

He said, "No"

I was really surprised to hear that Mr. Ng and most of his friends lost money on SH Chan when SH Chan share price could go up from Rm20.00 to over Rm55.00 a share.

How Come like this?" I asked

Well Mr Ng replied,

We bought at Rm20. Then we sold at Rm22 for Rm2 profit. Then Sh Chan shot up to Rm30.00 & we bought it back at Rm30.00 due to greed.

After buying SH Chan corrected to Rm27. So we sold in fear for a loss of Rm3.00

After that SH Chan Shot up to Rm40.00

And we turned greedy again and bought it back at Rm40.00. Sh Chan gone up to Rm43.00. So we sold it for a profit of Rm3.00

After selling SH Chan still powered up to Rm50.00

So we turned greedy again and bought it for Rm50.00

Alas! After entering at Rm50.00 price crashed back to Rm43

In a panic we cut loss at Rm43 (lost Rm7.00!) huhu!

Then we did the same stupid thing.

Buy into euphoria at high price & sold in fear when price crashed.

We just rode the sentiment until SH Chan crossed Rm55.00 & still losing money.

Then he scolded

Sor Hxx Chan!

Hxx is an unmentionable bad word lah!
21/06/2017 00:54
Apollo Ang that time a rich auntie,her son in law a director in sg besi(this stock I forgot chage to what name before delisted) bought 10,000 on SH CHAN at RM 58.00 and told me to buy. I told her I am too scared to buy......hahaha
21/06/2017 00:56
calvintaneng Posted by Apollo Ang > Jun 21, 2017 12:46 AM | Report Abuse

a fren's fren in 1993,people crazy about stocks but instead he bought a land in Macalister road pg for 1 mil sold to Tropicana for 8 mil a few years ago.many who make in 1993 bangrupt in 1997 but I manage to scrap thru. all because the higher stocks goes up the more scary I become.i will only hentam stocks when they are low, when up a lot I buy more less and less.

Exactly,

One guy who made some from the GoGo years took out his modest winnings of Rm300,000 & bought a roadside land in jalan Reko, Kajang

Later he built a shop & sold electrical goods. He escaped the crash
21/06/2017 00:58
Apollo Ang that time HWA TAI the most notorious over RM200 along wif repco.MCL now jerasia also RM 55. by the way when u start gambing in bursa calvin?.....)
21/06/2017 00:59
calvintaneng Yes, I supplied cars to Mr. Neoh of Batu Pahat then when Hwa Tai shot up to Rm200.00

Mr. Neoh paid Rm15,000 for a direct computer access to KLSE.

No need to go to Stock market as his shop the NEOH TIAN SER Motor has Real Time Quotes then.

I didn't participate in the madness.

And he told me HwiTai Factory only 20 or more minutes away.

So I drove to Hwai Tai biscuit factory in Batu Pahat outskirt to take a look

It was a shock. The HwaTai factory looked old and run down

How could its share be worth Rm200.00. Really unbelievable.

Real madness, then
21/06/2017 01:05
Apollo Ang woo hing n tai tong delisted but shop still exist,how about seng hup the lighting shop?
21/06/2017 01:10
calvintaneng Posted by Apollo Ang > Jun 21, 2017 12:59 AM | Report Abuse

that time HWA TAI the most notorious over RM200 along wif repco.MCL now jerasia also RM 55. by the way when u start gambing in bursa calvin?.....)



I got burnt in early days.

After reading THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR by Ben Graham I turned into an investor

Woohing & Tai tong I don't know as I was out of the market then.

Seng Hup is still a lighting shop I think
21/06/2017 01:23
Apollo Ang u ask me anything about 2nd borad counters,i know likely 90% if not all....hahaha
21/06/2017 01:30
calvintaneng Posted by Apollo Ang > Jun 21, 2017 01:30 AM | Report Abuse

u ask me anything about 2nd borad counters,i know likely 90% if not all....hahaha


I was not in the Market and especially the Second Board

One day I saw TTB on TV 3

He smiled & said that the stocks to buy are in Second Board

That was the impression I got from him - a gambling guy.

However, my Johor Sifu later invested in his ICap Biz at par value of Rm1.00

He said TTB got insider news due to his being a Prominent Fund. So he got first hand information in early days.

But those days are now over.

Maybe Apollo can share some interesting insights into 2ND Board to enlighten us?
21/06/2017 01:41
calvintaneng Hi guys,

Latest news from Star

GEELY WILL SIGN JV WITH PROTON THIS FRIDAY?
21/06/2017 21:25
Alex Foo @calvin thanks for sharing the 1997 stories. I am only <10 years old that time. I wonder how trader/investor survived during that period.

So were you working that time? or full time investing? meaning if serious bear market like 2009-2009 we should be out of stock market for a while? then do what oh, tanam jagung? =)
21/06/2017 21:33
Alex Foo @calvin at your advice i devoured coldeye and graham (graham i only read summary, and learn that he is the FA guru).

I also learn TA, and here are my picks so far. Welcome to comment because I want to know what you think =)

JHM, Vitrox, Penta, all semicon I know, and I'm exposed to this single industry. But i chose these for >75% of my portfolio currently due to

ROE at least 20% and above
proven and improving sales record
economic moat they say. Good targeted market.

Asia region to house the smart devices manufacturing. And couple with the DFTZ theme I picked a growth stock GHLSYS.

So all four. Can comment? =)

i still have 20% portfolio, that one is for goreng stock, haha....becoz too boring need some action you know =D
21/06/2017 21:36
Apollo Ang before the 1997 crisis people bought into 2nd board shares mostly thinking of fast money only,buy on hot news and chase stocks,never heard the stock fundamentals.i known many frens that time without knowledge of stocks simply just punt many bought a few hundred k without knowing how to pronounce the name of the company.in the end many owe remisiers during that time and never saw their face in the market anymore.also last time those came to punt on stocks without any collateral and contra can be rollover to a few months with interest only.a friend of mine bought perfect food 20lots@RM8.00 sold at RM40 in 3 months without taking up the scripts.but in the end he lost all using the gains to buy yahorng@ RM 10.00,mitra @RM 12.00 and ibhd @RM5.00 and he hold on until 2007 and sold yahorng at 40cts,mitra at 48cts and ibhd(I forgot how much he sold but I know very cheap)
21/06/2017 21:54
TheContrarian I cashed out from the 2nd Board in April 2000 to buy a condominium unit.
21/06/2017 22:07
calvintaneng I was out of the share market in 1997 because I met Alfred Ong who warned me to get out.

I owe Alfred Ong an everlasting financial debt.

For Lehman's brother crisis in year 2007/8 i already saw the subprime danger when i visited USA in 1999. At that time in San Francisco, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Jose I saw flyers every where at every street corner.

Placed inside bins are free flyers and handbills telling people to borrow like no tomorrow.

Taking a look at the flyers it read like this

1. Do you need to borrow money?
Come and see us.

2. You have no job? Never mind.

3. You have no asset as collateral? Can borrow.

4. Are you insolvent? No problem

5. Are you black listed. No problem

6. Are you a bankrupt? Also no problem.

Come and see us for easy loan.

At that time I did not know what's happening in USA.

Then it became clear that there was a property bubble in USA.

And by year 2014 George sorrow warned that the Housing Bubble will burst by 2007.

So I took heed to sell all in 2007 (except Opcom)
and left the market.

Both times I was out of the market crash.

This round people say it will be even worst than 1997 and 2007.

I am not sure as BERNANKE has invented QE1, QE2 & QE3.

If market should crash again I think the new discovery of QE by the printing press might come into play again.

As such we are now on uncharted territory.

It could go either
a) A big crash by another great depression
b) Hyper inflation due to rampant money printing
c) Remain status quo as FED balance it by rising or reducing interest rate. Money QE or less Qe.
Judgement day could be postponed indefinitely

For scenario a - doomsday prophet like Marc Faber and TTB will do well.

For scenario b or c all who keep to cash will underperform due to inflation and money dilution by QE.
21/06/2017 23:27
calvintaneng Correction

By year 2004(not 2014) George Sorrow warned that by 2007 the property bubble in USA will burst
21/06/2017 23:29
Apollo Ang I once bought kramat tin back in 1995 or 1996 at RM 55.00,7 lots when it announce a 10 for 1 bonus,in the end tipu sc reject and I sold at RM 8 only
21/06/2017 23:33
TheContrarian Apollo, during those years you played shares for what purpose? You were already very rich.
21/06/2017 23:54
Apollo Ang I was not born rich, though I never work before in my life......hahaha
22/06/2017 00:00
TheContrarian I played shares in order to raise funds to buy a home and achieved my objective within 7 years.
22/06/2017 00:05
Apollo Ang so u make more than a mil,so tell me how lah? haha
22/06/2017 00:07
TheContrarian Hahaha, doesn't have to make a million to buy a home.
22/06/2017 00:12
Apollo Ang home in penang now cost more than a mil
22/06/2017 00:15
TheContrarian I bought in year 2000. Small home for just one person doesn't need to cost a million. Anyway there was a property crash in year 2000.
22/06/2017 00:20
Apollo Ang ok lah can u turn 300k to 1 mil in 3 years?
22/06/2017 00:25
calvintaneng I bought. a house in year 1982 for Rm50,000 (medium cost house). I paid Rm5,000 to buy as transfer booking from the first owner. New acres charged me a very high transfer fee for this house in Tmn Sri Muda, Shah Alam

After keeping it for 17 yrs until 1999 I sold it for Rm92,000. After 17 years capital gain is only less than 100%

I bought a house by kl high court auction in 1992 for Rm160,000.
I sold it after 6 months for Rm270,000.

I made a gross of Rm110,000 in less than 1 year.

From this i learnt than the housing market is cyclical in nature.

If bought at wrong time it will be a lousy investment. But at the right time it will do wonders.

From here i also learn about cyclical stocks like steel, property stocks and other cyclicals.

For cyclical the timing of right entry is crucial.

We can make a lot at bottom if we get it right.
And we can also go kaput if we enter at top and later caught in the subsequent crash.
22/06/2017 00:29
TheContrarian Depends on market condition. This past eight months or so my portfolio has given me a realized return of 130% up to end of May which doesn't take into account unrealized gains on Insas, Cresbuilder, Affin etc.
22/06/2017 00:30
TheContrarian Calvin, I buy a property just to live in it.
22/06/2017 00:31
Apollo Ang please don't count on percentage, count on amount. many of the stocks is illiquid how to make so much? maybe buy a bit can up a few hundred % but if buy a lot they won't push it up for u
22/06/2017 00:33
TheContrarian I tabulated my realized gains up to end of May over my initial capital to get 130%. All gains have been reinvested. RM100 now becomes RM230. The RM230 represents purchase cost of portfolio without accounting for unrealized gains.
22/06/2017 00:43
calvintaneng Yes, contrarian

I bought my first property during hot boom time.
I bought it in Sri Muda, Shah Alam but I worked in Kl.

So to save time i rented out the one in Shah Alam to tenant. Then i rent one from my landlord in Cheras.

Buying property then was a hedge against inflation.

I only bought the 2nd property 10 years later in 1982 from high court auction. Sold it within the same year.

I bought another one in year 1996.
I bought it from high court auction at Rm272,000.
I got a buyer for Rm380,000 at end 1996.
But i couldn't sell it as the property got 4 caveats.

And i went through the Asian Financial crisis of 1997 & 1998 until year 2,000 when i finally got my lawyer to clear off all 4 caveats and transfer the house to my name.

I sold it to my neighbour for only Rm360,000.

After adding high interest rate of 9% for 4 years I think I made only Rm35,000

This taught me the high cost of fund can eat into profit.

And also to avoid property with caveat from high court auction.
22/06/2017 00:44
calvintaneng Correction: I bought my 2nd property from KL high court auction in year 1992
22/06/2017 00:46
TheContrarian Calvin, buy some Insas in the morning. It's very undervalued.
22/06/2017 00:48
Apollo Ang I make wrong move,buying maxis in 2010 instead of kpj,in 2011 bought kian joo instead of hap seng. in 2013 bought sab instead of dsonic and inari.in 2014 bought century instead of osk property-wa, and last year bought sunway instead of ekovest.overall I make but I pick wrongly between 2 or 3 counters otherwise I make a lot instead of making some makan money only
22/06/2017 00:59
michaelwong ignored this sort of stupid crapped stuff where he himself got stuck up in the muddy waters. His recommendation is of no value besides his yearning for political influence to dupe those newbies investors into his presence to believe those bankrupt corrupted goons who are killing themselves with their corrupted means to stay in power.
22/06/2017 01:19
Alex Foo wonderful sharing sifus.....during 199x i am only a lad. 1997 im only in primary, 2008 im in uni....now i never experience a recession and now i'm in stock market.

if want crash liao please warn everyone in i3 ok? warn kau kau especially to unsuspected newbie like me.

please share more. What advice would you give to a trader/investor starter in late 20s with RM50k capital?
22/06/2017 09:37


 

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