Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Sat, 23 Sep 2017, 12:54 PM

 

TOP 10 OVERSOLD STOCKS TO BUY NOW WHILE STILL VERY CHEAP! (Calvin Tan Research)

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Dear Fellow Investors of i3 Forum,

 

While all love chasing Hot Air Balloon Stocks Calvin think these 10 Top Oversold Stocks are worth buying:

 

1) WTK (82 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm2.80. Target Price Rm1.60

This bombed out Timber/Oil Palm Stock is now near all time low.

Family dispute, low timber/cpo prices impacted its prices. So WTK is totally oversold. Time to load up for these reasons. CPO prices now moving up. WTK selling at deep discount of NTA at over Rm2.80. Dr Neoh Soon Kean is also in Top 30 Share Holders of WTK. Other catalyst are a) Canada Softwood impacted by drought & fire.  b)Tokyo Olympic 20202 will spur logs/plywood sale.

 

2) BJ CORP (32 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm5.00. Target Price Rm2.50

TSVT has sold many companies and monetized its Assets like MagniTech, Atlan, BJ Auto & now disposing 20 million BJ Asset shares at peak prices.  The white elephant Great Mall of China has been sold off.  Something is brewing again. So time to load up.

 

3) MRCB (Rm1.19) Intrinsic Value Rm5.00. Target price: Rm2.80

Recent sell down was due to Capital being used to support Bukit Jalil Stadium. RI was the cause of the sell down. The sell down is overdone. Expect BN Govt to give some nice Big Jobs to compensate MRCB. These are possible Job Awards: ECER's Rm55 Billions Job, High Speed Rail, Bandar Malaysia, sale of EDL Highway to EPF or other Surprises?

So Expect A Coming Windfall. After all Top Holder of MRCB is EPF.

 

4) BONIA (55.5 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Target Price : Rm1.20

While price has fallen to all time low INSIDERS IS BUYING & BUYING. After Padini - Bonia stand to do well in JPO sales to China Tourists. This one stock has fallen to bargain level

 

5) MEDIA PRIMA (75 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm2.00. Target Price: Rm1.50

This is another oversold stock. Now just bought 70% of Rev Asia. Morgan Stanley is buying and buying & its rich Cash Hoard will continue to give good dividends.

 

6) CBIP (Rm1.98) Intrinsic Value Rm6.00. Target Price: Rm4.00

Totally oversold. INSIDERS once again started buying. This upturn of CPO Prices will be good for CBIP. Its Plantations in Indonesia is now maturing for a bountiful harvest. Of all Oil Palm Stocks CBIP has the highest double digit growth rate

 

7) MUI BHD (16.5 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Taget Price is 80 Sen

Fallen to only 16.5 sen now. Mui Bhd was once the darling at Rm24.00 in the GoGo Years. Now totally Bombed Out & Lost 99%

Divorce settlement will unlock Assets Sale. Just take position while cheap!

 

8) PBA (Rm1.26) Intrinsic Value Rm3.00. Target Price: Rm2.00

Selling at Deep Discount to NTA. This Rock Solid Defensive Utility is a Tsunami Shelter. It Survived the 2007/8 Subprime sell down. And PBA with its increased water tariff in Penang will see better earnings. Thus higher dividends could be expected. Again Grand Master Champion Sifu Dr Neoh Soon Kean is also Top 30 Shareholders of PBA

 

9) OPCOM (57.5 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Target Price: Rm1.20

Totally oversold. OPCOM has 20 Sen CASH. Another Rm300 Millions Job Award when completed by May 2018 will see another 30 Sen profit from Telekom. So Insiders are Loading up. For what?

FOR A NICE POSSIBLE "SPECIAL DIVIDEND OF AT LEAST 20 SEN?"

 

10) EIG (Esthetic International) (90 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm3.00. Target Price Rm2.00

This is a cornered stock Top 30 Shareholders already own 94.9% Shares of EIG. Only a tiny weeny 5.1% Shares left in Free Float in the Open Market. And Insiders still buying and buying. Why? EIG gross profit is as high as 60% to 80%. Just like Bonia's gross profit. Padini's only 40%.

So EIG is a candidate for privatisation like WangZheng or TheStore. Better buy some while most still in the dark

 

SO HERE IS IT! OR THERE YOU GO!!!

 

10 TOP STOCKS SOLD DOWN TO BARGAIN LEVELS AND VALUE HAVE EMERGED

 

YOURS TO ANOTHER 1 or 7 BAGGARS!

 

CHEERS!!

 

From Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

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  4 people like this.
 
apolloang datuk calvin, KEN got undervalued?
22/08/2017 11:18
apolloang morning sold butaland at 52.5cts,drop to 50cts me go drink coffee pula no see. just now key in 50cts buyback cannot get yet
22/08/2017 11:20
calvintaneng Posted by apolloang > Aug 22, 2017 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

datuk calvin, KEN got undervalued?

KEN past qtr result good

Cannot tell after that as construction cost goes up

1) Steel now very expensive. Already warned about Sendai

2) Hard to get workers due to so much arrest of illegals. Legal Indon with Red ID card now asking wages as high as Malaysian Chinese Construction Worker

I see KEN won't escape also
22/08/2017 11:23
zqhuang I nearly fell off the chair when I read about the lyrics (based on First of May) on Bjcorp... the Berkshire Hattaway of Malaysia.
22/08/2017 11:33
apolloang I will buy undervalue stocks to keep such as KEN,BUTALAND,OSKVI....miss out on ORNA and FPI
22/08/2017 11:36
calvintaneng zqhuang I nearly fell off the chair when I read about the lyrics (based on First of May) on Bjcorp... the Berkshire Hattaway of Malaysia.
22/08/2017 11:33

It's Ok

But don't fall down when you go stay in Bkt Tinggi Hill Resort of Berjaya Hills
22/08/2017 11:50
calvintaneng https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/91118.jsp

And music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvr2n9q8t3I
22/08/2017 11:53
zqhuang Thanks, I will be very careful when I visit Bkt Tinggi in the future.
22/08/2017 11:55
apolloang datuk calvin how u think about TOMEI? another undervalue stock
22/08/2017 12:05
apolloang bjcorp is undervalued,the only problem is vt is dr m bff.anything connected to dr m cannot up cos ah jib in control
22/08/2017 12:09
TheContrarian I already sold off my Tomei.
22/08/2017 12:09
apolloang I bought 60cts for so long sold at 68cts only,now coming pula tot wanna buyback,how?
22/08/2017 12:14
calvintaneng Posted by zqhuang > Aug 22, 2017 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks, I will be very careful when I visit Bkt Tinggi in the future.

The place is very safe

See

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QORjBA51lPs
22/08/2017 12:16
apolloang bro contrarian,me sold my crestbld at 1.14 down till 1.00 no buyback now 1.14 again,why u didn't call me buyback? hehe
22/08/2017 12:28
3iii calvintaneng is a smart chap. We should have no doubt about this. He has survived the stock market. Yes, we can believe him. Anyone who has been and still is active in the market, generally has survived the ups and downs of the market over the long period.

Yet, we know calvintaneng promotes so many stocks. Even more interestingly, he has by his own admission, sold down to only 2% of his capital in stocks today. Given his promotion of so many counters, assuming he has only 10 stocks in his portfolio (which I think probably is not, maybe nearer 50 to 100), he would have only about 0.2% of his capital in each stock averagely. I don't think this is serious investing. It is more a past time or someone who actually is still learning the ropes or as we say, testing the water. A master, the like of Buffett is 90% invested into the stock market at any time, although in recent years, he has been keeping a lot more in cash. Even today, though he has about 100 b USD in cash, this is still about 15% of his total portfolio value.

ttb's icap closed end fund based on its latest annual report has about 270m in cash. At 3.30 per share NAV, its total portfolio value of icap is 462m. Thus, his cash holding is about 58% at the end of its last FY. Perhaps today, he has deployed more cash into buying equity and this ratio of cash to portfolio value should be lower.

For someone who has 2% of his capital in equity today, this too reveals this investor does not have a long term portfolio of any significant value. There is a lot of transactions and turnover of the stocks over time. In short, a person who trades or invests for short term gain. Of course, I may be absolutely wrong here.

Let me touch on Berjaya Corp again.
22/08/2017 12:39
3iii As I had written and posted this morning, for those who have got the main points on Berjaya Corp, they would have realised, I asked 2 simple questions:

1. How good is Berjaya Corp? Are there reasons to avoid this stock?
2. Why is calvintaneng interested in this stock?

I have given the reasons for avoiding Berjaya Corp. There are many indeed. These need not be repeated here. You can look up the previous post.

I also gave 2 reasons why calvintaneng might be interested in this stock. Well, as I suspected or envisaged, he probably focused on the P/B value and the P/E.

P/E on its own is not a good measure to use. You need to look at a lot more other ratios.

Yes, calvintaneng came out shooting [at me :-) ] on this point. Did he think that I did not know of this point?

Let's put calvintaneng's enthusiasm just to a simple test.

<<<3iii Berjaya Corp (Historical P/B and P/E)

Yr…. 2017 …. 2016 …. 2015 …. 2014 …. 2013
P/B …. 0.18 …. 0.19 …. 0.19 …. 0.25 …. 0.27
P/E …. 6.42 …. -12.32 …. 2.48 …. -19.39 …. 30.96>>>

If he likes the P/B of Berjaya Corp today, he too would have love Berjaya Corp in 2013, when its P/B was 0.27, also in 2014, when its P/B was 0.25; in 2015, when its P/B was 0.19, and in 2016, when its P/B was 0.19. It has been trading at a huge discount to its equity or book value.

Yet, look at the share price of Berjaya Corp over these years.

Year …. 2017 …. 2016 …. 2015 …. 2014 …. 2013
Share Price RM …. 0.35 …. 0.39 …. 0.44 …. 0.50 …. 0.52
Market cap (m) …. 1,925 …. 2,021 …. 2,242 …. 2,617 …. 2,817

From 2013 to 2017, the price of Berjaya Corp has collapsed by a lot. Today it is 32.5 sen per share. By calvintaneng's reasoning (rather superficial and sorry, I must say so, laughable too), those buying Berjaya Corp at any of these times, would have bought a highly undervalued stock, which will give them high returns over time.


Yes, I am aware of Graham's teaching on such stocks. In fact, Graham also looked at the qualitative factors of the company, which calvintaneng conveniently ignored.

What sometimes calvintaneng shouts of his gains are market price fluctuations that occurred randomly in the market. You can examine the prices of every stock in the stock market, many has high price volatility. It is not unusual for a price of a stock to go up 50% and to drop the equivalent 1/3rd over 1 year or 52 weeks period. calvintaneng sounds smart everytime he barked on his buying a share at the historical low price and then quoting the historical high price of the stock. But these are just market price fluctuations. If he has the uncanny ability to profit from these consistently, he should have a lot more money in stocks. His behaviour and actions suggest otherwise.

So, what can the master teach the uninitiated who knows a bit but then think that he knows a lot? Yes, hopefully, Berjaya Corp can sell a lot of its unproductive assets, keep the productive assets, pays down its debts and start to grow its business at high rate of return on its capital. When Berjaya Corp achieves this, or is on the verge of achieving this, its share price too will reflects its good business fundamentals. Yes, when will Berjaya Corp turnaroud? As we all know, turnarounds can be very slow and often not successful.

Another VERY important lesson that calvintaneng has failed to grasped well, which led him to continuously picked these undervalued stocks, is the effect of price on all the valuation parameters he uses. Once, he has got over this hurdle (his investing achilles heel), he will be a better investor. This, for now, I have to keep it my secret.

:-)
22/08/2017 13:00
nekosan lol another rubbish analysis from. Warren buntut Singapore
22/08/2017 13:06
calvintaneng Peter Lynch categorize stocks into 6 Classes



1)Stalwarts

2)Fast Growers

3)Cyclicals

4)Turnarounds

5)Assets Play

6) Slow Growers


Calvin likes No. 1 to 5

3iii can only invest in no. 1 only.

See

1) The Eagle up in the Air Soar Above the Clouds and can SEE FROM SHORE TO SHORE

2) Other Flying Birds Can See From Mountain To Mountain or Tree to Tree\

3) The Chicken on the ground see nothing except to scratch for some earth worms

SO THE CHICKEN WITH MYOPIC EYESIGHT TELLS EAGLE HOW TO SEE?

LOL!!!
22/08/2017 14:02
calvintaneng http://www.patheos.com/blogs/faithandfinance/2011/08/03/6-stock-categories-peter-lynch-uses/
22/08/2017 14:03
Patron Tan Eng is like a drunken chicken who thinks he is an eagle.
22/08/2017 14:51
apolloang cannot buy any stocks related to dr m unless he can win the next election. Berjaya group vt is dr m bff.so I skip.i experience it last year cos my fren a former MCA person told me not to buy Sapura kencana and buy penta. at that time Sapura kencana is 1.80 and penta only 60cts. I regeret didn't follow his advise.but now I know better listen to him don't buy dr m related stock cos ah jib now in control.i just share this with u all
22/08/2017 14:57
calvintaneng Posted by apolloang > Aug 22, 2017 02:57 PM | Report Abuse

cannot buy any stocks related to dr m unless he can win the next election. Berjaya group vt is dr m bff.so I skip.i experience it last year cos my fren a former MCA person told me not to buy Sapura kencana and buy penta. at that time Sapura kencana is 1.80 and penta only 60cts. I regeret didn't follow his advise.but now I know better listen to him don't buy dr m related stock cos ah jib now in control.i just share this with u all

So?

If you think BN stock good?

Then go buy MRCB

This will be good all the way till GE14 Election Day
22/08/2017 14:59
calvintaneng Patron Tan Eng is like a drunken chicken who thinks he is an eagle.
22/08/2017 14:51

Why is this naughty parrot here?

You should go see your master now locked up in prison
22/08/2017 15:01
apolloang I follow u buy a bit at 1.30 already,enough for me......now I buy KEN,TOMEI,BUTALAND and queue to buy OSKVI.
22/08/2017 15:02
apolloang I missed out on ORNA and FPI,JAYCORP(both sold too early)....all good profit companies buy and can have a good nite sleep
22/08/2017 15:04
apolloang TOMEI new high
22/08/2017 15:04
hollandking dutaland can buy? sure, Mr Apollo?
22/08/2017 15:05
apolloang my fren this former MCA chap sold all his HO HUP and TEK SENG-WA and sailand on PENTA at 60cts only,he bought TEK SENG-WA at 30cts only sold at 1.00
22/08/2017 15:07
apolloang butaland buy some, wait until results out if good hentam more if no good keep a bit lo,play safe....hahaha
22/08/2017 15:08
apolloang better buy KEN totally unrealisticly undervalued. PE less than 5, free float less than 16%
22/08/2017 15:12
apolloang if u lose I lose more
22/08/2017 15:13
3iii >>> calvintaneng > Aug 22, 2017 02:02 PM | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch categorize stocks into 6 Classes



1)Stalwarts

2)Fast Growers

3)Cyclicals

4)Turnarounds

5)Assets Play

6) Slow Growers


Calvin likes No. 1 to 5

3iii can only invest in no. 1 only. <<<


I like Peter Lynch's classification of companies very much.

I use this consciously in my investing.

I invest into companies in each of these categories at the appropriate time.

Crying all the way to the banks.

:-)
22/08/2017 15:13
apolloang bro contrarian can u throw me some OSKVI at 75cts now done a bit but I haven't kena yet.....hahaha
22/08/2017 15:18
calvintaneng 3iii >>> calvintaneng > Aug 22, 2017 02:02 PM | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch categorize stocks into 6 Classes



1)Stalwarts

2)Fast Growers

3)Cyclicals

4)Turnarounds

5)Assets Play

6) Slow Growers


Calvin likes No. 1 to 5

3iii can only invest in no. 1 only. <<<


I like Peter Lynch's classification of companies very much.

I use this consciously in my investing.

I invest into companies in each of these categories at the appropriate time.

Crying all the way to the banks.

:-)
22/08/2017 15:13


HEHEHEH!

I think more like crying because you missed Pm Corp at 15 sen Hengyuan at Rm2.00, DRB c30 at 12 sen or Mj Perak at 31.5 sen?

HAHA!
22/08/2017 15:20
3iii >>> HEHEHEH!

I think more like crying because you missed Pm Corp at 15 sen Hengyuan at Rm2.00, DRB c30 at 12 sen or Mj Perak at 31.5 sen?

HAHA! <<<


Just pointing out to you that your assumptions are wrong.

Be humble.
22/08/2017 15:23
calvintaneng LOL!

Assumption?

On Pm Corp intrinsic value at 14.4 sen?

LOL!!
22/08/2017 15:24
apolloang talking about hengyuan, I really miss out when it was 2.00,but no regret lah,make from others in future
22/08/2017 15:27
Patron 3iii

How can you sinful human say God is wrong leh? The almighty is always right no ?
22/08/2017 15:29
calvintaneng apolloang talking about hengyuan, I really miss out when it was 2.00,but no regret lah,make from others in future
22/08/2017 15:27

Yes,

I was waiting for Hengyuan to crash below Rm2.00

One fei chai from OSK Remisier from Johor gave me DRB, CBIP & HENGYUAN. I bought DRB & CBIP but missed HENGYUAN. This guy drove a Merc Benz
22/08/2017 15:31
apolloang yeo khee huat own KEN,he own a lot of stocks a former director of soon theam securities. his sis yeo khee bee own a lot of ducth lady,his other bro yeo khee poh. u can check this out datuk calvin
22/08/2017 15:33
calvintaneng Posted by apolloang > Aug 22, 2017 03:33 PM | Report Abuse

yeo khee huat own KEN,he own a lot of stocks a former director of soon theam securities. his sis yeo khee bee own a lot of ducth lady,his other bro yeo khee poh. u can check this out datuk calvin

Ok

I think I once bought KEN long ago and sold it before.
22/08/2017 15:36
apolloang yeo khee bee now in aust been holding dutch lady since 2000.
22/08/2017 15:47
apolloang yeo khee bee no 11 in dutch lady list,she bought around 2 mil in 2000 now worth more than 20 mil. datuk calvin when u gonna be like her? hahaha
22/08/2017 15:52
3iii The thrill of investing in stocks, using Peter Lynch's classification of companies.


1. Dutch Lady

A fast grower in its early days. Now a stalwart.


2. Nestle

A stalwart and slow grower. Generating high FCF with little capex requirement.

3. Aeon Credit.

A fast grower. Financial stock. High risk sector.

4. Guinness

A stalwart or slow grower.

5. Petdag

A fast grower over the last decade. Smaller company then, adding 50+ new petrol stations per year. Now a slow grower or stalwart.

6. HaiO

A gruesome stock that turned around in 2005 / 2006. Those who spotted this then would have a lot of gains when others started to show interest in it. Presently, a slow grower stock. Not to be dismissed.

7. KAF

For years, this stock lingered at price below its net asset value. In its book was a piece of land in Jalan Kia Peng which was worth a lot more. This land was subsequently repriced and the company eventually taken over by the majority shareholders. This was an asset play stock.

8. Topglove and Hartalega

These companies were fast growers. They are also in a cyclical sector. Essentially, they are cyclical growth stocks. Those who have own these stocks over the long term would have multibagger gains.

9. Tongher

A cyclical stock. Not easy to play in this sector. Presently, it is in its cyclical high.

10. Public Bank

A stalwart or slow grower.

11. Guan Chong

A turnaround and fast grower (but only for a year or so). Cyclical sector. Not easy to play these stocks but for those who spotted it in 2009, it did climbed 200% or so. However, to protect your gains, you need to sell and not hold long term. Not easy to play cyclical stocks. You need to buy right and also to sell right.

12. Pentamaster

A fast grower for the moment. A fast growth stock maybe highly priced. Be careful, but if you have spotted this before its price climbed, the rewards have been and can be huge.

13. GENM

Slow grower.

14. LPI

Slow grower that has delivered superior returns.

15. Scientex

Slow grower
22/08/2017 17:27
3iii >>> Posted by Patron > Aug 22, 2017 03:29 PM | Report Abuse

3iii

How can you sinful human say God is wrong leh? The almighty is always right no ?<<<

calvintaneng is always right. :-) Ha ha
22/08/2017 17:29
3iii Padini

Was doing badly when it did its own manufacturing. Since outsourcing its production to China, and now Vietnam and other countries, it is a purely retailing company. It turned around and has been a fast grower over the recent years.


Petgas

Utility stock. Maintain the facilities for gas transport. Slow grower. Consistent gradual slow, very slow, growth.

OCK

Fast revenue growth. Very heavy capital expenditure. Little growth in earnings for now. Fast grower with little profit and little FCF to show for the moment.




[What can we infer? Companies that are small can grow very fast. Companies characteristics based on Peter Lynch's can change. A slow grower may blossom into a fast grower. A fast grower may hit a bad patch and be a gruesome company, that may need to be sold quickly. A gruesome company over time may gradually turn good, and becomes a turnover stock. Cyclicals are best avoided unless you are very familiar with the business cycles of the sector. Asset play may tax your patience before others start to realise the full or real value of the company allowing you to cash out at a good price.]


Did calvintaneng assumed wrongly? :-)
22/08/2017 18:01
calvintaneng A gruesome company over time may gradually turn good, and becomes a turnover stock.

Gruesome company like Dutaland, Bj Corp & Bpuri Will Turn Into

SUPER STOCK

SEE CALVIN HIT JACKPOT IN DUTALAND TODAY!!

WAHAHAHA!!!! WAHAHAHA!!!


WAHAHA!!!!

A RM750 MILLION CASH SHOWERS FALLING ON DUTALAND

SEVEN HUNDRED AND FIFITY MILLIONS RINGGIT FOR DUTALAND's PLANTATION LANDS IN SABAH!!

THIS TIME ALL SUPER SUPER KAYA LEOW!!!!


WUHUHUHU!!!

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!


HAHAHA!!!
22/08/2017 18:13
22/08/2017 18:22
calvintaneng Bonia turns in good result
01/09/2017 21:39
calvintaneng Mui Bhd results ok. Many areas done well.

Impairment loss is one off due to goodwill writeoff.

What is goodwill?

One Very sucessful fish soup shop just sold off its roaring business in a takeover.

The goodwill was rm300,000. The founding hawker retired and gone traveling. The new investor just raised the price of fish soup. Yet the place is filled to overflowing during lunch hour.
01/09/2017 21:45
calvintaneng Dutaland share price jumped 50% suddenly due to sale of 2 assets. Although its core business was lousy its assets disposal triggered the upside.

For Bj Corp its assets of immense value like Bkt Tinggi Hill Resort if sold some day - will be a spectacular surprise of astounding proportion
01/09/2017 21:50


 

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