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Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
1.84   +0.02 (1.10%)  1.83 - 1.87  1,203,800
1886 comment(s). Last comment by SinGor at Dec 19, 2014 08:50 PM
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gheekong
60 posts

Posted by gheekong > Dec 1, 2014 04:28 PM | Report Abuse

SinGor time to hibernate. Oil price drop, as if not bad enough, people in politics kept saying the wrong things. Stability of the country is very important for foreign investors to have the confidence to invest in Malaysia. All political parties should bear this in mind. We are sandwich between S'pore n Thailand, should concentrate on these 2 countries instead of arguing between all the political parties in Malaysia. Malaysia is competing with the whole world, don't forget this. Times are not so good too now. Thailand has shown you the bad things that happened when in fighting started, don't have to look so far. Luckily for Thailand, a fatherly figure has emerged to stop all the nonsense and is now doing some house cleaning.


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 1, 2014 06:42 PM | Report Abuse

Gheekong. I monitor the selling of CIMB shares by MUFG. It started when ABE defer Sale Tax and request election( 1 month ago). Maybe Japan economy is not moving. They need the money to support loan grow. Why sell now when the final merger is so close. 750m shares in their hand
Low oil price in Malaysia kills Government sector (1BMR)and only some consumer sectors. Exports are doing Good business to China/HK. There is no indication that my China orders are going down and as a matter of fact logistics are not charging me for fuel increase. Shipping rate are down. Najib is bringing back billions to support construction biz. Addicted to low oil price will be a problem. I still remember 3.8 Xrate fondly.


gheekong
60 posts

Posted by gheekong > Dec 2, 2014 01:05 AM | Report Abuse

SinGor. I know MUFG was selling Cimb but don't know the % sold. They may be selling not only Cimb, Cimb just happened to be one of them. A lot of funds are holding more cash now. They will start buying again when there are less uncertainties and risks. Yen may depreciate in the near future, that is one of the reason why they are repatriating funds back home now. They know Malaysia has less money to spend when oil prices are down. Hopefully they will invest in and stay invested in Malaysia or Cimb if we can convince them that they have a future investing here. It is Cimb duty to show fund managers around the world why they should not miss this opportunity.
China is a different story from Japan, do not know what business you are in or how competitive it is in the logistic business but very glad to know you are doing well. Wish you all the best in the future too.
Reduction in oil subsidies : subsidies should have been reduced gradually more than ten years ago. I was cursed and swear at by my friends when I said this in year 2003. A lot of Malaysian did not realize the Malaysian government was losing millions because of smuggling of fuel to Thailand. In Hatyai you could buy, smuggled from Malaysia, fuel at 30 baht ( 3 ringgit ) where as the market price was 39 baht ( 3.90 ringgit ) last year in July. Ask any tuk tuk driver in Hatyai and they can tell you this. It was so rampant that smugglers in Thailand could pay the exMarine police chief in Thailand 12 million baht in a single payment. Luckily for us the exMarine police chief was apprehended. I hope our PM can ask their PM about this since the Thai PM is in town. Don't forget it was their marine police chief that was caught so you have an idea how it was smuggled out.
Not only PM, everyone should be sending their money back to Malaysia, starting with all the politicians who have money residing overseas. Don't care which political parties you are in, please lead by example. We are fighting for Malaysia and not each other.


dusti
58 posts

Posted by dusti > Dec 2, 2014 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

What this OSK 101 or Politics/Thai corruption 101?


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 2, 2014 03:26 PM | Report Abuse

Sorry dusti. Only some story telling while we wait for CIMB shares selling to subside. But with 750m share in MUFG's pocket it could take a while.


gheekong
60 posts

Posted by gheekong > Dec 2, 2014 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

My apology too, was commenting to SinGor. Got carried away. Politics affect the share market and every counter in it, not a little but with great effect. Will not bore you anymore, time to go away.


dusti
58 posts

Posted by dusti > Dec 2, 2014 05:18 PM | Report Abuse

Hi SinGor& Gheekong here is my two cents worth.....CASH IS KING FOR NOW AND A BIT. Good luck & Cheers!


superman123
135 posts

Posted by superman123 > Dec 3, 2014 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

Just sell swap to kulim


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 3, 2014 03:39 PM | Report Abuse

Gheekong, After Nazir Razak's new offer(1rhb=1.38cimb) in Business Times, I am no longer pessimistic about RHB shares. I figure at buying price for Islamic shares @ RM3.53/share. The listing of Mega Islamic Bank must be atleast 1.5X and with some run up, I will end up close to RM10/share. Now even OSK holding is running steady. I bet many MBAs already figure that out.


gheekong
60 posts

Posted by gheekong > Dec 3, 2014 05:50 PM | Report Abuse

Rhb share price from now until merger is unfortunately linked to Cimb because of the exchange rate of share. Rhb on its own can weather the storm. What is important is how the mega bank will perform and how they communicate to investors. There are so many unstable variables now, eg. oil price, how Indonesia will perform, US interest rate, value of the ringgit, competition from other ASEAN countries not to mention economic performance of Europe and Japan and how politically stable Malaysia is. These are only a small number of things that need to be considered. Fear has gripped the share market for now. Psychology side of investing kicks in rather than the numerical side.
Osk is under value that is why it is holding steady. Next year end 2015 result for Osk will be very different from 2014 as the profits from Osk property and share of Pjd profit will be taken into account. Everyone is waiting for Ong to give back some money to Osk shareholders too. I wonder how much the warrant is worth.


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 4, 2014 04:21 PM | Report Abuse

GheeKong- I only fear US interest rate and Europe. Low oil price is God blessing to China and Japan industries. If these 2 Giants are not collapsing, Malaysia's export will be okay. Just delay GST and lower electricity rate--this will have effect on inflation. Addicted/abused to Petronas subsidy is really a big headache now.


gheekong
60 posts

Posted by gheekong > Dec 4, 2014 05:22 PM | Report Abuse

By the look of things, even Phd holders have a hard time analyzing. Your guess is as good as them. Something obvious like Osk shareholders will collect 7.5 cents dividend plus 15 cents special dividend which will give you 22.5 cents, that is more than 10% dividend next year, have not even taken free warrant into account but investors still panic sell. I have to stop writing for a while, happy new year to you, SinGor and everyone in this forum.


share2014
54 posts

Posted by share2014 > Dec 10, 2014 11:13 PM | Report Abuse

Is it that good?


hanting999
88 posts

Posted by hanting999 > Dec 11, 2014 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

Anything a bit 'extra' from OLH is, must be and should be good. All this while we have been receiving kacang putih.


SP0094701
258 posts

Posted by SP0094701 > Dec 15, 2014 02:21 PM | Report Abuse

aiyoo drop to 1.99 liao......offer so good also drop ....


sbg3106
182 posts

Posted by sbg3106 > Dec 15, 2014 04:20 PM | Report Abuse

mkt drop all counters also drop


5percent
131 posts

Posted by 5percent > Dec 15, 2014 06:37 PM | Report Abuse

wow..can accumulate more


SP0094701
258 posts

Posted by SP0094701 > Dec 15, 2014 06:57 PM | Report Abuse

The crude oil still drop ....think can drop to usd40.. waitinh that time then see how much


share2014
54 posts

Posted by share2014 > Dec 15, 2014 10:26 PM | Report Abuse

What the heck


jkhoo99
16 posts

Posted by jkhoo99 > Dec 16, 2014 05:29 PM | Report Abuse

any idea why this no more support? Who is selling?


pauling
1 post

Posted by pauling > Dec 17, 2014 01:39 PM | Report Abuse

I want to accumulate more. what price is good? any suggestion?


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 17, 2014 02:00 PM | Report Abuse

jkhoo99--pls read the latest The Edge. Some problem with asset evaluations between MBSB and the 2 banks. This is just my Day dream, EPF will scoop RHB shares and dump them in some unknown co. so that Aabar voting % will stay at 36%. Already EPF is buying CIMB shares for the last 2 days so maybe it is RHB's turn


SP0094701
258 posts

Posted by SP0094701 > Dec 17, 2014 05:40 PM | Report Abuse

Because of this osk drop too much....


jkhoo99
16 posts

Posted by jkhoo99 > Dec 18, 2014 02:27 PM | Report Abuse

@SinGor. would you have the link to The Edge article?


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 18, 2014 02:44 PM | Report Abuse

Saw article in MPH bookstore on 17 Dec. Sorry can't link


funitec
162 posts

Posted by funitec > Dec 19, 2014 12:28 AM | Report Abuse

Was good at 2.55. if only had spare bullets.Keeping some bullets for other stocks too.


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 19, 2014 01:23 PM | Report Abuse

Regardless what ppl said about Osk Hold, I will be receiving 30 cents/share in 2015.
The bursa guy who rejected EPF request will be selling Salted Duck eggs in some Kampung
market. But damn I really admire his courage. The whole mega bank initiative is PM Najib
Pet project. He is going to park Mega Islamic Bank in Tun Razak Exchange and Mega Islamic
Insurance and so forth. All these for his father Tun Razak. Do tell me what are the changes
that this Mega bank not forming?


hng33
3544 posts

Posted by hng33 > Dec 19, 2014 03:24 PM | Report Abuse

SinGor

How 30sen/share in 2015 !!??

Is it derive from

1. OSK payout special dividend 15sen

2. Free warrant 1:4, assuming warrant trade at 40sen once listed, each OSK reap 10sen

3. Final dividend 5sen in Mar.


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 19, 2014 04:09 PM | Report Abuse

Thank Hng33 for breaking up the #. But I am looking year end 2015 bcos merger complete
in sept 2015


sephiroth
12442 posts

Posted by sephiroth > Dec 19, 2014 04:11 PM | Report Abuse

makan 1.84 today


hng33
3544 posts

Posted by hng33 > Dec 19, 2014 05:30 PM | Report Abuse

SinGor

I'm just try to interpret what you mean by 'I will be receiving 30 cents/share in 2015' in your earlier post. However, the total cash dividend and warrant gain from special dividend, upcoming regular final dividend and expected at least 40sen once warrant is listed are highly achievable in 2015. This is on top of catalyst from the completion of Mega-bank through capital appreciation. Therefore, it seem safe to expect total return at least 15% for OSK. Under my radar list now, a potential core stock to enter into my portfolio.


Wong Kah Wei
63 posts

Posted by Wong Kah Wei > Dec 19, 2014 07:29 PM | Report Abuse

All your mentioned above ald confirm?


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 19, 2014 08:26 PM | Report Abuse

Hng33- Actually I based dividend for 2015 to be 7.5 cents (same as 2014) after Sept 2015.
Special dividend @ 15 cents. So dividend alone is 22.5. Now the hard part, warrant value?
It really depend oil price on second half of 2015. I got a banker projection on oil price. So I go
around asking people who know about warrant price. And the range is between 5 - 15 cents
I took the mid range ie 7.5 cents. So this is how I came out with 30 cents.
But a new oil projection came from China friend which place oil price @ $75/barrel-end 2015(rather upbeat) I checking with others. Even with 30cents, Osk can go down to RM 1.55
and I am still breaking even Next year. Bcos I bought between 1.72 to 2.00 average around
1.87


hng33
3544 posts

Posted by hng33 > Dec 19, 2014 08:29 PM | Report Abuse

SinGor

Warrant is 1 for 4, therefore, if your project each OSK can reap 7.5sen, then the warrant price must at 30sen.


hng33
3544 posts

Posted by hng33 > Dec 19, 2014 08:36 PM | Report Abuse

Wong Kah Wei

No confirmed yet, the special dividend and free warrant is subject to successful acquisition of OSK prop and PJD and approval by shareholder in EGM.


SinGor
30 posts

Posted by SinGor > Dec 19, 2014 08:50 PM | Report Abuse

Sorry. Your projection is 10cents@40cents warrant and my is 7.5cents( just projection on the
safe side.)

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