|Last Price ||Avg Target Price || Upside/Downside ||Price Call |
|0.675 ||1.61 || +0.935 (138.52%) || |
|* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.|
|** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).|
|Date ||Open Price ||Target Price ||Upside/Downside ||Price Call ||Source ||News |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||1.15 ||+0.14 (13.86%) ||BUY ||TA || |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||0.88 ||-0.13 (12.87%) ||SELL ||RHB-OSK || |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||1.00 ||-0.01 (0.99%) ||HOLD ||MAYBANK || |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||1.08 ||+0.07 (6.93%) ||BUY ||KENANGA || |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||1.07 ||+0.06 (5.94%) ||BUY ||HLG || |
|06/11/2014 ||1.01 ||2.20 ||+1.19 (117.82%) ||BUY ||CIMB || |
|03/11/2014 ||1.10 ||2.20 ||+1.10 (100.00%) ||BUY ||CIMB || |
|03/10/2014 ||1.28 ||1.88 ||+0.60 (46.88%) ||BUY ||KENANGA || |
|01/10/2014 ||1.27 ||1.46 ||+0.19 (14.96%) ||HOLD ||RHB || |
|14/08/2014 ||1.36 ||1.83 ||+0.47 (34.56%) ||BUY ||TA || |
|14/08/2014 ||1.36 ||1.76 ||+0.40 (29.41%) ||BUY ||MAYBANK || |
|14/08/2014 ||1.36 ||2.01 ||+0.65 (47.79%) ||BUY ||KENANGA || |
|14/08/2014 ||1.36 ||1.72 ||+0.36 (26.47%) ||BUY ||HLG || |
|14/08/2014 ||1.36 ||2.37 ||+1.01 (74.26%) ||BUY ||CIMB || |
|30/07/2014 ||1.53 ||2.37 ||+0.84 (54.90%) ||BUY ||CIMB || |
|23/07/2014 ||1.53 ||2.07 ||+0.54 (35.29%) ||BUY ||RHB || |
|10/06/2014 ||1.57 ||2.37 ||+0.80 (50.96%) ||BUY ||CIMB || |
bravoUp Oil: The Week Ahead
China's central bank cut interest rates last week, and this supported energy prices, which have not been this low for some time. Even though it is difficult to predict the course of prices over the next few weeks, we believe that the market had fully anticipated the bad news and that a rally is in the works. The next meeting of OPEC members is scheduled forNovember 27
In the lead-up to next week's meeting, a growing number of analysts expect the cartel to cut production to slow the drop in oil prices. A reduction of one million barrels per day would have an immediate impact on prices. We were interested in comments made by Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela's Foreign Minister, who said that Venezuela would be interested in cutting back production as part of an agreement among the leading international actors. Venezuela has also entered into discussions with Russia to find a solution to the current situation
On Friday, Russia also said that it was willing to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to trim production. Coordinated action by Russia and OPEC would clearly have a major impact on prices. Even though a production cutback would negatively affect Russia's oil revenues, this would be more than offset by higher prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's two largest oil producing countries, together accounting for over 20% of global production. Revenues from oil and natural gas exports represent 50% of Russia's revenues, and the recent drop in prices has pushed its economy toward recession. To balance its budget, Russia needs oil to be selling at $100 per barrel in 2014 and $90 per barrel in 2015
According to the latest data from Bloomberg, more cash is now flowing into funds that replicate the price of crude oil than we have seen since June 2012.
Have a good week!
patrickbeh do you think this counter will going up or going down, how much? but tambbunng haji buy a lot from this counter. scare to buy also. any opinion?
bravoUp Buy...buy ..buy. Above rm1.00 very soon. Oil price is recovering...
vews08 today will drop to 0.60, wait and see
skybursa Be patient when you want cheap entry . Oil and gas will take rough ride & wait for cheaper price
King Kong73 Ah moi..not relevant whether i know hassan marican which is my ex boss..basically..30% cap at profit is already in place
vews08 Crude oil price drop below 70 dollar. No good news for o&g company. Guest today share price will drop to 0.50. Everybody be careful.
gohlai DO NOT CATCH A FALLING KNIFE
PETALING JAYA: An oversupply and price war are pushing down drilling rig rates in the oil and gas (O&G) industry around the world, which could impact the earnings of some local players.
Already, one of the biggest casualties of this development is Seadrill Ltd, the world’s largest O&G rig operator. On Wednesday, Seadrill posted a 40% drop for its third-quarter net profits and suspended its dividend payment. The last time it halted the payment was in Nov 2009.
Seadrill major shareholder Jon Frederickesen was reported to have said that the decision to suspend the dividend was taken after considering the significant deterioration in the offshore drilling and financing markets over the past quarter.
A combination of falling oil prices and new supply of rigs coming into the market next year is further exacerbating the situation for rig owners.
Oil prices are down some 30% this year, with Brent and WTI crude trading at about US$78 and US$74 a barrel respectively.
“With about 25% of the global ultra-deepwater fleet available in 2015, certain rig owners seem willing to work at or close to cashflow break-even rates and we expect this type of activity to continue in the short-term,” Seadrill said on Wednesday.
The company posted a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 31 US cents from 60 US cents a year ago. The consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters called for an EPS of 67 US cents.
Its share price plunged 23% on Wednesday to US$15.99 a share, a new 52-week low.
Rig rates hit their peak at US$650,000 per day in 2013 for top specification deepwater units. Today, rates are below US$400,000 per day and could go lower as players continue to outbid one another in their attempts to maintain market share.
In March this year, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) president and chief executive Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas had warned service providers of falling charter rates for O&G assets.
However, some analyst remained optimistic for Malaysian O&G companies as they felt Petronas was committed to its capital expenditure.
MIDF Investment Research O&G analyst Aaron Tan added that Malaysian O&G players were slightly sheltered as Petronas was still committed to its capital expenditure and was looking to increase oil production from 580,000 barrels a day to 600,000 barrels a day.
“Therefore, the activities must continue. The refurbishments and works will go on,” said Tan.
In Malaysia, rig operators include UMW Oil & Gas Holdings Bhd, SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd and Perisai Petroleum Bhd. While SapuraKencana owns tender rigs, UMW Oil & Gas and Perisai own jack-up rigs.
Last year, SapuraKencana purchased Seadrill’s tender rig operations for US$2.9bil (RM9.3bil), thus making it the world’s largest operator of tender rigs with a global market share of 51%. Seadrill owns an 8.18% stake in SapuraKencana.
Apart from building up its asset base, the purchase of the Seadrill tender rigs was also to eliminate “conflict of interest” position that had emerged in SapuraKencana following its merger in 2012.
On the global front though, Seadrill said it was not convinced the market would revive in the next 18 to 24 months, with next year likely to be worse than this year and that meant recovery was more likely in 2017.
In an extensive report on the O&G sector, UOBKayHian said SapuraKencana is one of the companies that could be vulnerable, given that “drilling rig charter rates could soften amid overcapacity”.
The report also pointed out that globally, O&G stock prices had collapsed by some 30% to 50% in the last two months on falling oil prices.
Nevertheless, the report was positive on the Asian O&G scene, noting that production was in shallow and midwater areas and that the breakeven cost of production is around the US$30 to US$40 per barrel in terms of Brent oil price.
“Asia’s spending is driven by national oil companies (NOCs) instead of international oil companies (IOCs). NOCs’ goal is to maintain/achieve self-sufficiency while IOCs maximise profits and shareholder returns. Thus, NOCs’ spending is typically more resilient than that of IOCs. As a whole, Asia accounts for 33% of global oil demand but only 9% of production.”
MIDF’s Tan concurred and remained positive on the O&G sector mainly because of Petronas.
“Go for stocks with big orderbooks and long tenures in diversified geographic locations. In SapuraKencana’s case, it has an orderbook of RM26.8bil up to 2020. That’s definitely quite safe,” he said.
UOBKayHian said in its report: “While stock valuations are undemanding, fund managers await a clearer direction in oil prices as they are wary of catching falling knives. Some fund managers concurred that by the time there is clarity, stock prices would have passed their bottom.”