|Last Price ||Avg Target Price || Upside/Downside ||Price Call |
|0.27 ||0.80 || +0.53 (196.30%) || |
|* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.|
|** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).|
|Date ||Open Price ||Target Price ||Upside/Downside ||Price Call ||Source ||News |
| No Price Target available for this stock. |
cfmore This Bloomberg article of June 9 which follows below says that TM is going to launch LTE by end of 2015, which is just over a month away.
Whilst Packet 1, in which TM holds a majority 55.3% stake, South Korea's SK Telecom owns 13.6% and with Greenpacket holding 31.1% and stands to benefit to some extent if this LTE service venture works out. Also with Greenpacket providing the WiMAX and LTE equipment such as wireless (WiMAX and LTE) modems which will be used in the P1 service, it also stands to gain from this revenue stream.
Whilst P1 was Malaysia's first WiMAX network operator which launched its services in August 2008, however its network expansion was constrained by limited finances and it had to build and operate base stations one by one based upon customer demand and was a loss making operation which pulled down Greenpacket's profit from a modest profit each year prior to P1 launch to a loss each year after after P1 launch.
In 2007, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission granted WiMAX licenses and allocated spectrum at 2.3GHz to four operators - namely P1, Asiaspace, Redtone and YTL Comms. P1, Asiaspace and YTL Comms had spectrum for Peninsular Malaysia, whilst Redtone had spectrum for Sabah & sarawak. However today, only P1 and YTL Comms are left standing as WiMAX operators.
However, WiMAX is a wireless bearer technology which lost the battle against and WiMAX operators are gradually migrating their networks and customers to a variant of 4G LTE known as TD-LTE (Time Division - Long Term Evolution), whilst the cellular operators Celcom, DiGi, Maxis and U Mobile use FD-LTE (Frequency Division LTE). LTE is a 3G Partnership Project (3Gpp) 4G technology which is a successor to the 3Gpp's 3G and 2G technologies. SK Telecom is the technology partner for LTE.
Technologies aside, now with TM as a majority stakeholder, P1 has access to the much bigger financial resources of TM which has multiple revenue streams, unlike P1 on its own which only had WiMAX wireless broadband. Yes, P1 subsequently also provided fibre service but this was over fibres leased from TM.
Deployment of telecommunications networks is a very expensive business and size matters, which is why whilst YTL Comms was the last ofthe WiMAX operators to go live in late 2010, it did so with a network which provides much wider coverage than P1 and YTL Comms has the benefit of being part of a large group with multiple verticals and revenue streams.
Now TM's Unifi fibre service is currently mostly available in urban areas and is a fixed service available to residential and business premises but with this wireless channel via P1, TM can now provide service to nomadic and mobile users, which it could not do so with fibre. For example, someone renting a room in a house where the landlord either does not have Unifi service or does not allow tenants to use their services can now subscribe to wireless service which they have full control over. Also, people with mobile devices are able to use P1 for anytime, anywhere connectivity provided they are within P1 coverage and theoretically enjoy "Unifi in the sky".
Also, with P1, TM can also provide service to customers outside major urban areas and in new areas where the physical communications distribution infrastructure has not yet been laid, since all it needs is a base station with physical backend connectivity to the core of the network core.
cfmore -/ Contd
Whilst Greenpacket's revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2015 is an impressive RM78.3 million, its loss of RM24.3 million may be concerning but judging from its negative cash flow of RM103 million and negative net-case from investing of RM11.6 million suggests that it is investing heavily in technology and equipment development and is sharing investment in the P1 network with TM and SK Telecom.
This pattern of heavy operational loses and investment cashflow are apparaent in its earlier quarterly reports.
The downside could be that the wireless broadband market is highly competitive with six players in the market - i.e. Celcom, DiGi, Maxis, U Mobile, P1 and YTL Comms (Yes4G) but still, telecoms stocks generally do well.
However, with Greenpacket founder Puan Chan Cheong (CC Puan) now as P1 CEO and MD, I'm pretty confident P1 and Greenpacket will do well. After all, P1 was Puan's and hence Greenpacket's baby from the beginning.
Meanwhile, Michael Lai, P1's former CEO of seven years joined Singapore-based fibre broadband provider MyRepublic as its fundraiser and will spearhead its expansion into Malaysia and Cambodia.
Anyway, I'm bidding for Greenpacket right now.
TAH Wow 12.29am sapu 1.2m shares
TAH I think good financial report is going to release soon, that is why the share creeping up slowly,day by day. Must be patient only can make big money.
waka2Trader loss on financial report..
warris “If you’re running a US$10-billion company but you’re only to account for US$1 million of business, that’s nothing exciting.
cfmore I missed this Bloomberg report of July 3 in my earlier post.
I can find no later news of the LTE launch but according to this report, it will be a mobility add on for Unifi subscribers.
With a 31.1% stake in P1, Greenpacket should benefit or lose too but it stands to gain from supply of LTE modems and other access equiment.
3 July 2015
Telekom Malaysia On Course To Complete P1’s Turnaround
Efforts to turnaround Telekom Malaysia Bhd’s 55.3% subsidiary Packet One Networks (M) Sdn Bhd (P1) is progressing well with the country’s dominant fixed line operator having finalized and approved the latter’s business plan, according to TA Securities Research.
With the latest development, the research house expects P1’s shareholders to subscribe to the company’s convertible bonds (CB) by this month. To recap, P1 will issue a RM1.65 billion eight-year redeemable CB to TM, Green Packet Bhd and SK Telekom Co Ltd to fund the rollout of P1’s 4G LTE (long-term evolution) network.
“(Moreover,) TM has approved a vendor to deploy 4G for P1 and the network is currently at the testing stage,” TA Securities Research pointed out in a company update following its recent meeting with TM’s management. “Meanwhile, the management is hopeful that P1’s existing WiMax subscribers will opt to migrate to LTE so P1 may finally switch off this legacy network.”
P1 has an existing subscriber base of approximately 200,000 users with the bulk rely on WiMax. But the research house observed that P1’s subscriber base has more than halved since a year ago (490,000 back in June 2014).
For P1’s all-new product targeted for launch before end-2015, TA Securities Research was made to understand that it will be a complementary add-on service (similar to HyppTV) to enhance the attractiveness of TM’s fixed broadband offerings. “Instead of a standalone product, it will likely be bundled with Unifi, thus offering users optional mobility and an integrated ‘converged’ experience,” explained the research house. “Via bundling, P1 is also able to piggyback on TM’s established marketing and distribution channels.”
On TM’s high speed broadband phase 2 (HSBB2) and sub urban broadband (SUBB) projects, TA Securities Research noted that the government and TM are in the final stage of negotiation, including finalizing areas covered under these projects.
“Despite concerns on P1’s earnings drag, TM’s core driver remains as the fixed broadband where the group has a near-monopoly (current market share: 92%),” enthused the research house. “Furthermore, TM will expand its broadband coverage to 1.16 million (+69% year-on-year) households by 2020-2021 under HSBB2 and SUBB.”
All-in, TA Securities Research upgraded TM to BUY (from HOLD previously) with a target price of RM8.16, mainly stemming from optimism that its HSBB2/SUBB projects will drive long term earnings growth and eclipse short term earnings dilution from P1.
At today’s market close, TM was up 2 sen to RM6.85 with 5,315,000 shares traded.
cfmore I cannot find reports of any recent projects online but the fact that TM plans to launch LTE services via its subsidiary Packet One Networks by the end of this year will no doubt provide business for wireless communications equipment manufacturer Greenpacket to supply LTE broadband modems, etc. and also earn a share of the revenue from P1in which it still owns 31.1%
This Digital News Asia report of March 2015 describes Greenpacket's plans to return to profitability this year and also its international expansion plans.
Greenpacket was in the red each year since Packet One Networks went live.
"Green Packet, which at one point was the majority shareholder of Packet One Networks (M) Sdn Bhd (P1), has posted an average of about RM98 million of net losses annually from fiscal years 2008 to 2013."
But now that it has divested its majority statke in P1, Greenpacket hopes to return to profitability this year.
"Plans for 2015
"One of the areas Green Packet will look into seriously is cross-selling its services. For example, selling its LTE devices to an operator which is already doing voice wholesale business with it."
"Another area it will focus on in 2015 is geographical expansion. Currently, 55% of its solutions customer base is from Asia, 32% from Latin America, and 9% from Europe."
"However, in terms of revenue contribution to the group, Tan said that Latin America and the Middle East are currently contributing less than 10% of the total."
“We hope to increase this contribution to a double-digit percentage this year,” he added.
"2015 will also be the year it expands its product range for its solutions pillar, to attract more customers."
“If we go into emerging markets, we want to have devices and solutions that are more cost effective; and if we go into Tier-1 and developed markets, we want to be able to offer feature-rich products … that give them better connectivity and throughput,” Tan said.
“Ultimately, we like to position ourselves as having the widest portfolio in fixed and nomadic wireless products – so that we can go to any operator and be able to give it a product that suits it,” he added."
This is what The Star reported in March
PETALING JAYA: Mobile broadband and networking solutions provider Green Packet Bhd aims to increase its operating profit and turn around by its financial year ending Dec 31, 2015, riding on growth in its old core businesses.
Since relinquishing operations of Packet One Networks Sdn Bhd (P1), chief executive officer Kay Tan noted that the company was “going back to its roots” as a software solution company.
It will now focus on its two core businesses, namely software and device, as well as communications.
“We hope to widen the operating profit by this year,” he said.
He added that the company was already profitable, if the losses from now associate company P1 and interest on its exchangeable bonds were stripped out.
“The overhang is not encouraging but this business is already profitable. It’s just that the size is not enough to cover the interest and losses from P1,” said Tan.
He said that long-term evolution (LTE) was a key growth area for Green Packet, and hoped to double the size of the company’s LTE clients.
As of Dec 31, the company had 17 LTE clients with 47 on trial, which was an improvement from the previous quarter when it had 14 clients and 36 on trial.
“The key thing we want to grow is actually the LTE market. If you look at the past five years, it’s actually WiMAX. Of course WiMAX is a technology that is able to deliver the same service as LTE, it’s just that worldwide adoption has tapered down. So, in order for us to grow our revenue base we would want to be able to sell more through LTE versus WiMAX,” he said.
I don't expect Green Packet's share to shoot up like a rocket but I see a longer term potential in this counter.