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KLSE : NOTION       NOTION VTEC BHD
Last Price Avg Target Price   Upside/Downside Price Call
0.38 0.45     +0.07 (18.42%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
22/06/2015 0.375 0.43 +0.055 (14.67%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
15/05/2015 0.38 0.43 +0.05 (13.16%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
26/02/2015 0.43 0.46 +0.03 (6.98%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
24/02/2015 0.44 0.45 +0.01 (2.27%) HOLD RHB-OSK Price Target News
28/01/2015 0.45 0.45 0.00 (0.00%) HOLD RHB-OSK Price Target News
26/01/2015 0.455 0.46 +0.005 (1.10%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News


Price Target Research Article/News (past 6 months)
22/06/2015  KENANGA Notion VTec - Asset Light Operating Model
15/05/2015  KENANGA Notion VTec - Below Expectations
26/02/2015  KENANGA Notion VTec - Within House Expectation
24/02/2015  RHB-OSK Notion - Ceasing Coverage
28/01/2015  RHB-OSK Notion - Lacking Re-Rating Catalysts For Now
26/01/2015  KENANGA Notion VTec - Navigating Rough Seas



  6 people like this.
 
cheer76 Good info
01/06/2015 22:19
Val-Elta Something i posted on DuFu thread. Dufu is another company doing CNC machine, exact same business profile as notion, but their product only HDD


Net Asset Per Share.
Notion 105 cent, Dufu 57 cent (84% more NAPS)

Revenue
I'll take average 1 Q's revenue since Dufu only 1st Q result.
Notion ~66million, Dufu ~34million

Operating margin
Operating income/revenue
Notion ~ average of 2 Qs 17341k/122193k = 14% margin. Dufu = 733k/34958k = 2% (dufu need to do 7x sales, to get equal profit with notion) 700% more margin vs DuFu. This latest Q result can say bad margin d, normal notion margin is 17%!

EPS.
Dufu = 0.31 sen. Notion = -1.69 sen [Expecting notion EPS for 3rdQ to be around 3.7 sen per share, to totally breakeven 1st 2 Q's losses] Assume same EPS for 4th Q if not higher, FY EPS for notion despite 2 first Q loss = 3.7 sen per share.
Assume Dufu 10% increase in EPS QoQ, 0.31+0.34+0.38+0.42 = 1.45 sen.

And dufu share is at same price range.. abt 36cents now.

So... I just find it interesting, that two business exactly same CNC business, almost same share price 36 for dufu vs 37 for notion.

But if you look at fundamentals, notion's fundamental is much much higher than Dufu's. Do you know of another company doing CNC machine business listed in KLSE too? Good to do comparison of same industry companies.
02/06/2015 12:55
Val-Elta Found another one, ASTI group, listed in Sg, parent Co for Emerald Precision Engineering. Doing same CNC machining/precision parts.

Let's look at their figures, based on FY2014.. No 2015 Q reports available.
I wont do SG to RM translation to apple apple it.. but you can take the % figures..

ASTI Group share price (SGD) 0.06
NAPS = 13 cent.
NAPS/Share price = 2.1x, notion NAPS/Shareprice = 2.8x

Revenue, FY 2014, SGD 135160k
Operating profit = 2616k
Operating margin = 2616k/135160k = 1.9% about the same as dufu also. Notion's 14-17% op margin is really strong now, if you compare with other player in this business.

ASTI
EPS = 0.44 cents
PE ratio = 6/0.44 = 13.63. I'm projecting Notion 3rd and 4th Q to have EPS of 3.7 each. Total notion FY 2015 EPS, 3.7cent
PER = 37/3.7 = 10.

Is there another CNC business with a better fundamentals? I want to see how bad/far notion is, compared with a true precision manufacturing best of class leader... Maybe i widen my search to US/China market..
02/06/2015 13:15
Val-Elta EDIT** ASTI one inaccurate, not apple to apple entirely, as they have other business divisions.. semicon etc.
02/06/2015 13:16
Val-Elta Another precision machining company, Luster Industries.

NAPS 9 cent.
Revenue 1st Q 30 mill
Operating Loss = 1.9mil, margin = -1.9/30 = -6%? uh... not sure how to calculate negative margin :P

Feel free to add other machining companies result you know off... chau for now.
02/06/2015 13:50
bsngpg Hi Val-Elta : you are really a great gate-keeper of Notion. Thank you for your consistent hard work.

I have no eyes to see my investment on Notion, in fact I have psychologically written off the investment. Anyway if the salted fish can really turn around one final day, I would welcome it with open arms. Nevertheless, it would be a fairy tale if I can recoup my initiate capital. Ha Ha.

Thks again.
02/06/2015 18:22
Val-Elta Im an existing shareholder, assessing my portfolio every now and then. I sold some profitable shares to average down a bit more today at 37. Give notion 1,2 good quarters, and I'm sure it'll go back up around 50-60 cents. What price did you bought bsngpg?

US automobile sales result out later today, expecting a very good month for May as well, with 17 million cars sold. TRW shld be a strong player in the US market.. wonder how much business it can give notion only. Let's hope Notion can grow their revenue with TRW, as TRW is a very very big player.

USD to RM for April and May is below M2M price of 3.70, so there's some forex gain for sure... At the moment, June seems like 3.70++ maybe some M2M gonna happen for 3rd Q, but depending on outstanding position left, any additional forex losses if USD > 3.80 per RM, can be partially offset by higher profit from sales as well.
02/06/2015 19:03
Val-Elta Also, I think we can see Notion will probably get EPS of 3-4 cent per Q post the expiry of the forex hedges. Total FY EPS will be 12-16 cents!

Also for 2nd Q results, if you read their cash flow statement, there's a 7 million cost involved in either replacing their CNC machine or service/repairs incurred in their cost of sales.

If not for this amount, they could actually have breakeven already in 2nd Q itself. Maybe kitchen sinking, to book all costs in to 2nd Q. 3rd Q result gonna be exciting I hope!

And please... don't buy the handphones!! Surprisingly, as much as I want to findout more about their smartphone, I CANT... not in facebook, not in google. If they're actively marketing it, they're doing a bad job. Let's just hope it means they cancelled their whole smartphone idea completely...
02/06/2015 19:11
Val-Elta Also, I think we can see Notion will probably get EPS of 3-4 cent per Q post the expiry of the forex hedges. Total FY EPS will be 12-16 cents!

Also for 2nd Q results, if you read their cash flow statement, there's a 7 million cost involved in either replacing their CNC machine or service/repairs incurred in their cost of sales.

If not for this amount, they could actually have breakeven already in 2nd Q itself. Maybe kitchen sinking, to book all costs in to 2nd Q. 3rd Q result gonna be exciting I hope!

And please... don't buy the handphones!! Surprisingly, as much as I want to findout more about their smartphone, I CANT... not in facebook, not in google. If they're actively marketing it, they're doing a bad job. Let's just hope it means they cancelled their whole smartphone idea completely...
02/06/2015 19:12
Val-Elta 3rd Q projection. Revenue 70m, operating income @ 16% of revenue 11m. expect small forex gains from < Rm 3.7 for April and May. Net forex gain 2m. - finance cost 1m + 1m taxation credit

13m profit/270418065 = 4.8cent EPS, - 20% for variance/inaccuracy still have 3.8 cent. Assume a further discount of 30%, also EPS of 2.7 cent is achievable..

Hope I'm not completely wrong ba....
02/06/2015 19:21


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