|Last Price ||Avg Target Price || Upside/Downside ||Price Call |
|0.45 ||0.49 || +0.04 (8.89%) || |
|* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.|
|** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).|
|Date ||Open Price ||Target Price ||Upside/Downside ||Price Call ||Source ||News |
|26/01/2015 ||0.455 ||0.46 ||+0.005 (1.10%) ||HOLD ||KENANGA || |
|05/12/2014 ||0.415 ||0.45 ||+0.035 (8.43%) ||HOLD ||RHB-OSK || |
|26/11/2014 ||0.47 ||0.45 ||-0.02 (4.26%) ||HOLD ||RHB-OSK || |
|26/11/2014 ||0.47 ||0.46 ||-0.01 (2.13%) ||SELL ||KENANGA || |
|27/10/2014 ||0.49 ||0.49 ||0.00 (0.00%) ||HOLD ||RHB || |
|15/08/2014 ||0.655 ||0.58 ||-0.075 (11.45%) ||SELL ||KENANGA || |
invester Val-Elta, thanks for the response. Actually to my understanding, the glass business is also a target area for them to look into. However, there is no further announcement later where they have secured the business. So, it is still an un-known situation. But of course, I wish they can get this business.
Val-Elta again, the glass business, don't expect too much from it. It's more like "since we have too many CNC machine sitting there doing nothing, might as well do some glass machining" I don't expect it to be on high margins, BUT...
Rather than having machines doing nothing, and workers idling, at least using them for 1% margin AND to cover depreciation of those assets will help a lot.
Val-Elta TH buying in, maybe Notion management made some investors briefing to them. Who knows, something maybe cooking up. TH bought about 800,000 shares that's about 320k, small change to TH i guess, but it's still sizeable amount.
undukngadau Wow. Notion got real POWER! with healthy volumes
Lee Wehc Taik Actually, why technology sector can go up? Is it because USD strengthen?
According to annual report 2013, I am a bit shocked to see that USD strengthen by 5 % will decrease profit of Notion of about 6.4% (my calculation), With last year bad result. Do you all think notion can survive?
Val-Elta Hi, Lee you will need to dig deeper for more info on that. It's because of their forex hedging when RM was stronger against USD like 2-1 years back. Back then they hedge USD to RM3.20 when RM was stronger.
HOWEVER... If you followed their Q reports, and do your own studies. They did made a contrary hedge last Q iirc, there's one Q which saw a spike in hedge amt, and it was profitable, suggesting they hedged the other way. And as the Kenanga report also states, their hedging position will only be fully exited in 3 -4 more months, assuming they didn't counter hedge again.
It's quite surprising people will jump into conclusions and I think your posting is very uninformed. It's not gonna be perfect for this Q and next, but it's not as bad as you say. YoY, and QoQ on a yearly basis, I'm quite certain Notion will be profitable, but as I always say, the 1st and maybe 2nd Q's result will only be slightly profitable.
Val-Elta I always see people say Buy buy buy, or sell sell sell. Or die die die, or huat huat huat in the forums... makes me wonder how many % are actually klse gamblers, who don't make informed decisions...
Val-Elta Disclaimer, I've been and still is Notion shareholder, so read it with bias :P
Overall, here's what my educated/informed guess is.
Assuming there's no external factor like, sudden big finance collapse like 08.
Year end result for 2014, Notion loss RM25,639m,
Please note the 25 million write off for their silver investment.......
If you take that off, notion only loss RM639 operationally, to put it in very very simplistic math.
So, assuming all things is equal, no growth from existing business (automative, HDD, [very unlikely SLR rebound]), no forex benefit (good USD to RM for 2nd half), no new business (glass), it's gonna be RM639 loss.
That's the worst case scenario I believe. So Lee, to answer you, Notion will survive.
A more likely one is
Breakeven, or slightly profitable around 500k-1mil? This depends on if they counter hedge again or not to balance their existing RM3.20 to USD hedge, which I believe they did previously, although I must say this hedging thing is like betting that I don't like.
Shld be the same with 1st Q, maybe better as it goes along.
If RM still same exchange rate, serious upside gonna happen here just from forex gains alone. Forex gain at least 8% can be expected? If not more.
Assuming their glass business kicks in, again as i suspect they are loosing money from idle machines through depreciation of CNC machines/workers salary. Even if their net profit margin on glass is low, most important is, able to cover the depreciation losses, and salary of workers. Overall, I think the profitable Msian operations is covering for the depreciation loss in their Thai operations which has their main Nikon assembly line, thus the RM629 loss. Even if the glass business is done at 0% net profit, if they are able to at least cover the depreciation, rental, workers etc of their Thai operations, that should be significant.
More of the same with 3rd Q.
Potential to gain new HDD customer.
Windows 10 to bring excitement for PC industry?
Automotive segment is growing nicely, being a new segment, trend will continue, as car gets more safety features.
They're in talk with another HDD customer, which is great news.
(unlikely >> some minor peanuts gain from alcyone? hehe.. just say for fun)
My main concern as shareholder is still on a 08 type of financial crisis.
Otherwise, as long as notion management is actively seeking new customers to put the idle CNC machines to use, I do not see any issues.
Val-Elta This is done for my personal review of my holdings of notion, and I believe is well balanced, supported with numbers, and also highlighting worst and best case scenario, I'm still accumulating and plan to continue accumulate during this 4x period. Selling now, is similar to selling at bottom, and you will only make other people gain money on the upside.
bsngpg Hi Val-Elta: thks for the great analysis again. Yours is more relevant to us as compared to those of Kenanga.
I am same with you, have been and still is the shareholder of Notion, not a negligible portion of my total portfolio. After many years of portfolio cleaning and switching, almost all old holdings in my portfolio are now in positive region even after the big correction last month, except this one which I descrbided it as my lemon stock. Ha, I just cannot understand why I do not switch it out as I did on many others but naively keep the lost from 1.20(or maybe 1.60, too long till cannot remember) to the current 0.46. I see myself just like “阿嬌：我太㣭，太天真”。Maybe sometimes, I just need to be naive to balance the exciting life in share market.
I do agree selling now is equal to selling at near bottom. Buy? It is too sour for me.
Cheers, and thks again for your consistent "gate-keeping" on notion.