|Last Price ||Avg Target Price || Upside/Downside ||Price Call |
|0.41 ||0.43 || +0.02 (4.88%) || |
|* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.|
|** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).|
|Date ||Open Price ||Target Price ||Upside/Downside ||Price Call ||Source ||News |
|25/11/2016 ||0.41 ||0.43 ||+0.02 (4.88%) ||BUY ||KENANGA || |
sherlock collecting mode.
TAH Better buy L n G lah, coming
projecti2016 Averaging down to get out sooner.
sherlock if could maintain at current level,notion might fly soon.
projecti2016 I wanna get out soon and move to other counter. Waiting 0.390 and bye bye
mememe hng33 wants you to buy JTIASA
blacksnake notion start engine....... WB up up......
naaim207 hopefully, not just one day show
Val-Elta USD to RM 4.19 now, notion hedging is already finished 100% mid august. So for september month their earning should be fully at 4.10+ range.
USD to RM stronger reason is because china lowered their currency, this is not just a short term thing.. And yes, I'm still around, although I dont say much now :)
6055 val elta. 4.10+- range is USD to RM? higher better for notion?
Val-Elta Yes, Notion is exporter so it's good.. take it day by day la. So far so good... don't want to over comment too much @@
Investhor Notion broken downtrend channel..if break 40c tomorrow might see more interest in this counter
Investhor notion broken 40c..now 40c become support to move higher
cutie can buy or not??....it looks like it is moving . US dollar at 418.
Investhor buy on dips..it will rebound..overall still uptrending
sherlock suggest management hedge 40-50% of revenue at RM4.20,that will be perfect for future earning.
LKOH What if USD go higher? I think the management is wary of repeating the hedging mistake..
Val-Elta dont talk abt hedges please... just common sense u will know hedge will only be offered by the banks IF the banks believe they will profit from signing the contract with you..
you want to play currency with the master of currency(the banks?) comeon...
I want to sign RM5 to 1 USD hedging contract for 2 years, who will accept? (Almost sure win contract to me, you can say, but no banks will accept)
If the banks accept your hedging contract, by common sense, it's a contract that after analyzing all risks, the banks believe they will profit from it...
Also now is strong usd period. Probability for USD rising is more, than USD falling.
(Pro USD reasons)
1) Fed rate hike in Dec
2) Oil price may fall if OPEC don't agree oil production cut in end Nov.
3) Bank negara lower interest rate.
Con USD reasons
1) Oil price increase...
1.5 months of forex above 4.16 for FY 2017, 1st Quarter now... (October up to now) if notion can just maintain status quo fundamentally, it's gonna be good already.
blackout87 Ringgit sharp depreciation. Will notion benefit?
Val-Elta This depreciation is happening at a time when notion is totally unhedged already, but will only take effect on the Q result of (October-December 16) to be announced on ~Feb 2017..
If notion don't mess it up while just maintaining existing revenue its good enough.
But most importantly, fundamentally they need to secure new customers to replace Nikon/SLR, if they can do this with the unexpected forex environment now, it'll be a super big bonus.
Time to deliver notion management...
6055 so this coming quarter result shouldn't be bad because the currency stand between 4.10+- for the quarter ?
sherlock 4rd q result should released by next week.but i don really expect any surprise,the turning point should fall on 1st q 2017,where hedging losses totally eliminated,stronger usd started to lift margin meaningfully and depreciation charges reduced further.
Val-Elta Can expect 1-1.5 sen EPS... notion have a big variable in their 'other income'... this row sometimes can b -1m but sometimes can be +ve 6m..
Maybe even +9m for this q... very big swing..
Core business wise, qoq, HDD should recover 10-15%, SLR assume same sales, automotive same or +5% should b realistic figures to expect
blackout87 Usd myr 4.4. Should be making money hand over fist. But notion has always had a history of nasty surprises
sherlock the big variable mostly come from forex change,so should be quite positive in 4rd q since usd is stronger,but last portion of realized hedging losses(estimated at RM4-5m) and inventories write off should continue to drag bottom line,unless their are able to write back some items(like disposal of scrap metal),or improve sales performance.
by the way,based on last quarter trend,HDD segment unlikely to rebound meaningfully,the only hopes fall onto automotive division which own fair chance to achieve growth.net cash position should improve further if not mistaken.
sherlock the company set up a new subsidaries recently,probably related to the plan of set up a new plant at johor,waiting for more details.
naaim207 result still not out yet?
sherlock should come out this week,but don speculate,be prudent.if result is good,then not too late to buy since next quarter will be even good as usd keep appreciate,but if result is not good,the we can buy on dip since coming results is expected to rebound.
Val-Elta good advice :) while they 'should' be profitable this q.. aih there's always this risk that they have something crazy happening.
Val-Elta IF, just IF they don't mess it up this Q's result (just a reasonable figure of at least 1 sen EPS) + next Q result is mostly gonna be great just from the confirmed forex exchange rates of October, up to end of November. Getting these 2 q results in a row will be explosive for notion
Val-Elta :) 1.73 cent EPS this Q, with 1 cent dividend :) :)
6055 excellent results, next coming quarters even better... :)
KL_82 Shhh.. buy quietly..
sherlock nice,above expectation indeed,but what make me even excited was their are going to started new plant at johor by next month(initially i though will only happen by 2nd half 2017),that is very crucial to enhance mid-to-long term growth,and further diversify into non-HDD segment.
notion v-tec,welcome back!
sherlock even after deducted RM2.8m inventory write-off and RM3.5m plant and machinery write-off,still able to achieve RM4.6m NP,really impressed.
Val-Elta Quite conservative TP upgrade for Notion from Kng... as expected, it needs another Q result to come in at 1.5+eps. After which, i'll be surprised if TP it not at least 60-70 cents.
tah16600 After so long waiting, now only start to move up
6055 ceo also bought notion's share. uptrend onward..^^
blackout87 Inventory write off for 3 years straight. I'm wondering if they will ever fix their operational issues.
Val-Elta They say this is from their HDD business which is very strict with the measurement/qc requirement. assuming 100m from HDD sales per year, 9.3m writeoff is about 10% of their total HDD sales d.. quite significant figure i must say.
Important thing now is 2
1) The impact of USD to notion's revenue in the 1st Q FY2017 results. We have already confirmed from OCT-NOV confirmed very good forex. And starting now DEC, it's still at 4.40+
2) While forex may come and go... what I was really waiting for the MOST is operationally they increased their revenue and reduce idle unused machines. They took loan, invested a lot in CNC machine on SLR business expansion... and when the SLR business is gone, the excess depreciation really hit the rest of the business's margins.
With the new factories (52000 sq feet in total) we could be seeing overall machine utilization at 90+% this will be a VERY VERY important milestone. And I'd really like to see how's the next Q result is gonna be. If the new customer is able to provide the sales volume, notion can then be in a position to choose to reduce HDD sales which is very hard to meet in terms of QC wise.
Val-Elta One thing which I don't like about notion is, i believe they're very picky in choosing their customer, and they were very slow in getting business for the unused machines. Hopefully, now that they've finally identified a customer/partner, it's going to be a win win situation for both Notion and their new customer.
At 90%++ machine utilization, the revenue and EPS will hopefully hit 2.5c++
tah16600 Turnaround stock, right timing to buy
cutie how about .....Bank Negara Malaysia’s new measures to enhance the liquidity in the foreign exchange market, to stabilise the declining ringgit?
sherlock i think is neutral if not slightly negative,since exporter are forced to convert 75% of expert earning into ringgit,capital flexibility will reduce following the new rules,but of course it will not impact NOTION's profitability since BNM still allow exporter to held 25% earning in dollar term,to hedge against any USD cost.
generally,notion will still benefited when USD appreciated.
blacksnake no volume........ how can buy......... waiting the volume and players come in first............ hihihihi