Stock Price Target

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Last Price Avg Target Price   Upside/Downside Price Call
1.68 1.72     +0.04 (2.38%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
01/03/2018 1.68 1.80 +0.12 (7.14%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
01/03/2018 1.68 2.12 +0.44 (26.19%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
28/02/2018 1.70 1.80 +0.10 (5.88%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
28/02/2018 1.70 1.60 -0.10 (5.88%) HOLD JF APEX Price Target News
28/02/2018 1.70 2.11 +0.41 (24.12%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
22/01/2018 1.76 1.90 +0.14 (7.95%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
11/01/2018 1.83 2.11 +0.28 (15.30%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
11/01/2018 1.83 1.30 -0.53 (28.96%) HOLD AMMB Price Target News
09/01/2018 1.74 2.05 +0.31 (17.82%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
29/11/2017 1.50 1.40 -0.10 (6.67%) SELL KENANGA Price Target News
29/11/2017 1.50 1.60 +0.10 (6.67%) HOLD JF APEX Price Target News
29/11/2017 1.50 2.11 +0.61 (40.67%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
16/11/2017 1.59 1.61 +0.02 (1.26%) HOLD AMMB Price Target News
20/10/2017 1.69 1.30 -0.39 (23.08%) HOLD AMMB Price Target News

Price Target Research Article/News (past 6 months)
01/03/2018  KENANGA Tan Chong Motor Holdings - Weak Malaysia Car Sales
01/03/2018  HLG Tan Chong - Towards Better FY18
28/02/2018  KENANGA Tan Chong Motor - Hit by Lower Car Sales
28/02/2018  JF APEX Tan Chong Motor Holdings - 2018: Pinning Hopes on New Models
28/02/2018  HLG Tan Chong - Banking on New Models to Drive Growth
22/01/2018  KENANGA Tan Chong Motor Holdings - Insufficient New Launches to Drive Volume
11/01/2018  HLG Tan Chong - Collaboration With King Long in Vietnam
11/01/2018  AMMB Tan Chong Motor - To build and sell buses in Vietnam
09/01/2018  MIDF Tan Chong Motor - Value Emerging, Proxy To Stronger Ringgit
29/11/2017  KENANGA Tan Chong Motor - Hit by Lower Car Sales
29/11/2017  JF APEX Tan Chong Motor Holdings - 3Q17: Still Struggling
29/11/2017  HLG Tan Chong Motor - 9M17 Above Expectations
16/11/2017  AMMB Tan Chong Motor - Nissan bounces back from inspection scandal
20/10/2017  AMMB Tan Chong Motor - Nissan Motor suspends production for a fortnight

  2 people like this.
riskabsorber We believe the domestic automotive sector will remain challenging as consumer appetite is still weak with the strict financing approval guidelines in the current economic environment.

The Group will continue to remain disciplined and maintain our focus on key priorities to ensure
sustainable financial position. Sales and marketing activities will be enhanced to maintain our
competitiveness in Malaysia. Overseas sales and distribution are expected to continue expanding in tandem with the robust economic growth in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. However, as for Myanmar, its operations commenced production and sales activities in Q1 2017.

TChong has taken a smart move which is hedge the currency. Gain on derivative has helped them in this quarter result.
05/05/2017 10:42
davidkkw79 Losses still can be said increase.... = =
05/05/2017 13:28
kuanhan79 Useless counter unless you are willing to keep for years! At least, 3 years onwards...
05/05/2017 14:47
MsfollowmeTeam is making A come back 2
16/05/2017 22:52
chankp7010 From the above, we noted that there are many people with varied views as to whether to buy or sell TChong. As for me, I look at its management and Board, they are good and transparent, treating minority shareholders reasonably well. One such example is the privilege of being invited to TCM plant visit from 8.30 am. to 3.30 p.m. on 12 July 217. Thank you
07/06/2017 07:19
chankp7010 2017 July 12. Sorry for typo error
07/06/2017 07:20
nikicheong I got in at 1.82 on Thursday. Buying for long-term. At 0.42X B/V, this is considered cheap. If and when Tan Chong returns to profitability, it will eventually approach 1.0X B/V, and if the ROE can be sustained above 10% then it can possibly hit 1.2-1.4X B/V, which should mean at least a doubling or tripling of capital invested. The catch is...this may take 3-5 years to materialize. It's not a short game...it's a very long game indeed but with a good payoff potential.

Based on my risk analysis, I believe the downsides have been adequately priced in. I will top up more if the stock drops to 1.75, 1.68 etc (every 7 cents down) as long as the story hasn't changed. The few upside catalysts that will lead to a re-rating of the stock in the coming months and/or years are as follows:

1) New models launch. Tan Chong Motors has not brought in a single new model in 2017, and in 2016 they just brought in one or two minor facelifts. That means two new of almost zero updates, unlike its competitors such as Honda, Toyota and Mazda which have been actively launching brand new models here. In 2016, Tan Chong maintained that new models will be deferred to 2018. One highly rumored model is the Nissan Kicks, which should see good demand. The other is the Serena Hybrid facelift, also said to be highly sought after.
11/06/2017 10:54
nikicheong 3) Stabilizing/strengthening Ringgit. In Q1 17, the Ringgit averaged RM4.43/USD, but in Q2 this has dropped to about RM4.35. This arguably means that the worst is over for the Ringgit as far as the FX with USD and JPY is concerned, and going forward there may even be a slight upwards/bullish bias for the Ringgit. Not to mention, Tan Chong would have been renegotiating cost of parts/models with Nissan Corp., which should also boost the bottomline.

4) Possibly taking over Mitsubishi distribution in Malaysia. Nissan bought a ~35% stake in Mitsubishi Motors in Japan last October. Now the entire group comprises of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi. Tan Chong already distributes the former two in Malaysia, so its entirely possible they will take a stake in distributing Mitsubishi cars here to streamline operations and reduce costs for the R-N-M group.

5) Low base effect. Q1 2017 saw a very small volume of Nissan cars sold in Malaysia. Their marketshare was among the lowest seen in the past 5 years. Things have recovered in the following months. Inventories have been falling these past few quarters. When we get to next year, there will be a favorable bias when doing YoY comparisons due to the low base effect.
11/06/2017 10:56
nikicheong 2) Refers to Indochina growth. But i3 keeps deleting the comment. Why can't I post it? I don't even use any vurgar words or talk about politics. Can't share as it keeps getting removed, sorry.
11/06/2017 10:59
Jon Choivo Niki, im looking as well. But you're banking alot on hope and dreams when they are so many other companies out there that is doing well already and not fully priced in yet.

If im right, with the level of debts in australia, us, china, malaysia etc. We should be in for a recession soon. Whatever gains we have in the malaysian economy now is not due to real fundamentals, but because people feel optimistic and buy, and when people see people buy, they buy as well.

A recession is coming, debt levels is way higher than 2008. And when it comes, your turnaround play might take a very long time.
12/06/2017 01:23
nikicheong In that sense I disagree. It's not my job to predict a recession. Just buy and hold companies that WILL see a turnaround in a five year period. I do believe that Tchong fits the bill well.

Just my 2 cents. By the way if you ask me, I believe Malaysia's fundamentals will improve over the coming 3 years. 2017 Q1 GDP growth shows that we are in the beginning of such a process.

What other companies would you consider to be "safe" no-brainer investments for gains in a five year period? I believe Prlexus is one of them, Hevea is another. But I'm spreading my risk exposure in buying both "beaten down/fallen giants" and buying companies with "growth at reasonable price" such as Heveaboard. Both of course following the margin of safety concept, where you primary aim is to NOT lose money, rather than make money.
12/06/2017 13:15
enid888 Nikicheong, what is the growth story in Indochina that you want to talk abt? How abt their new model launching in Malaysia? I do not see any new model launched thus far this year.
30/06/2017 00:52
nikicheong Enid888, this is why these are UPSIDE POTENTIAL. You have to anticipate them. If you wait for it to be in the news, the share price would have reacted already.

Now, these are not a given. Which is why you must also do a risk analysis and establish a sufficient margin of safety.
05/07/2017 20:44
nikicheong Link: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/07/ram-tan-chong-motor-losses-to-persist-before-recovering-in-2018/

RAM downgrades Tan Chong outlook to negative, but reaffirm P1/A1 bond and corporate ratings.

Will be interesting if this results in a small sell-off on Monday. Anything below RM1.70 will be a nice buying opportunity and to top up for me (initial entry at RM1.82). Turnaround is not far off now, with a company like Tan Chong and its Nissan connections, it is hard to go wrong!
08/07/2017 13:31
nikicheong What a shame, not one soul sold yesterday! :(
11/07/2017 13:17
geng59 What's up with key directors buying for past few days but shares keep trending down? Appreciate some thoughts in this. Thanks
19/07/2017 10:29
Cornerstone hopeless stock...
19/07/2017 10:51
nikicheong "It is the darkest before dawn".

I got in at RM1.82...anyone who can buy in at RM1.75 should be even luckier!

It is in the deepest pits of hopelessness that hope emerges once more.

If you have studied Graham, Buffet and Lynch, then you know that this is a stock that screams "BUY". Of course, provided you have a long investment horizon and the patience and fortitude to believe in your picks.
19/07/2017 22:08
thinkndo Howerver, be alert...noticing that since end of 2014, has broken below RM4. Then after, achieving the lowest in every year. Hope this round is different and not going to repeat the same pattern..Huh.
20/07/2017 16:48
Lau Choong Ling If china cars not florish in Malaysia, possible
27/07/2017 13:12
nikicheong We might be headed into the RM1.50s soon...

Quarter report not pretty, but the substantial decline in inventories is a major positive.
25/08/2017 23:02
Ohyea Lol better buy media prima since both also fallin .. media got status quo .... tan chong on his own ... if Tey fail to boost the sales ... sooner later Nissan revoke their distribution rights ... then u all go Holland d
04/10/2017 08:12
Ohyea http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/nissan-suspected-of-routinely-forging-inspection-documents-reports
05/10/2017 07:46
nikicheong Got more today @1.61. So I bought at 1.82, then 1.70, then 1.61. Avg price ~1.69.

Will keep topping up if it drops to the low 1.50s.
01/11/2017 20:54
Victor Yong grabcar & tan chong are expanding in ASEAN, grabcar and tan chong have great synergy. Nissan is also progressive in electrical/hybrid cars e.g. leaf. Nissan ranks no 2 in Japan. once tan chong introduces new Nissan model like honda, etc, the sale volume will rebound . :)
02/11/2017 10:16
Victor Yong possible for grabcar to acquire a stake tan chong as grabcar could offer new/old nissan cars, etc to grab drivers? :)
02/11/2017 10:23
Victor Yong South-East Asian ride-hailing platform Grab, the company co-founded by Anthony Tan who is from the family that built up the Tan Chong Motor group, is making a big bet on the Indonesian market with an investment of US$700mil over the next four years.

Indonesia is Grab’s largest market in South-East Asia, with its GrabCar and GrabBike businesses each growing more than 600% in 2016.

The investment under the company’s “Grab 4 Indonesia” 2020 master plan will see its services expand across more cities than any of its competitors, including Jakarta, Bali, Bandung, Padang, Makassar, Medan, Surabaya and Yogyakarta.

The master plan, designed to support Indonesia’s goal of becoming the region’s largest digital economy by 2020, includes the opening of a Grab research and development (R&D) centre in Jakarta.

The company also plans to launch a social impact fund to invest in local companies and improve access to mobile payments and financing opportunities across Indonesia, it said yesterday.

Anthony, who is group CEO and co-founder of Grab, is the son of Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png

president Tan Heng Chew. His grandfather, Tan Sri Tan Yuet Foh, co-founded the Tan Chong group into a leading automotive company in the region.

“As the largest homegrown technology start-up in South-East Asia, we are excited to make this significant investment in Indonesia’s future and accelerate their transition to a fully integrated digital economy.

“The ‘Grab 4 Indonesia’ 2020 master plan underlines our deep commitment to driving South-East Asia forward, and our excitement about the tremendous opportunities we see in Indonesia to help build and advance the country’s digital infrastructure and ecosystem,” Anthony said in a statement yesterday.

The master plan involves three major investment pillars, which are technology talent, technopreneurship, and mobile payments.

To create new jobs in information technology and upskill the country’s human capital, Grab aims to hire 150 engineers over the next two years for a new R&D centre in Jakarta.

The company said the centre would focus on developing country-specific innovations, including algorithms to address new road regulations in Jakarta and GrabHitch (Nebeng), a “bike-pooling” service that caters to almost 1.4 million commuters in greater Jakarta.

Indonesian engineers will also be provided with training opportunities at Grab’s existing R&D centres in Singapore, Beijing and Seattle.

The company also plans to pump US$100mil into local start-ups and aspiring technopreneurs through a “Grab 4 Indonesia” social impact investment fund.

It said the fund would focus on companies involved in the mobile and financial services industries, particularly those which serve smaller cities and communities which have yet to benefit from the digital economy.

To increase access to mobile payments and financing opportunities, the company will expand its mobile payment solutions in Indonesia through its cashless stored value option, GrabPay Credits, and existing partnerships with Mandiri and their e-Cash solution, it said.

“In addition, Grab will provide its driver partners with access to more financing opportunities to purchase their own smartphones and automotive vehicles, giving them the opportunity to build sustainable livelihoods and become micro-entrepreneurs,” it said.

To date, Grab has generated over US$260mil in income for its driver partners in Indonesia.

Bloomberg quoted Grab president Ming Maa as saying that the bulk of the investment into Indonesia will come from Grab’s fund-raising exercise last year, during which the company collected a record US$750mil from backers led by SoftBank Group Corp.

Ming Maa said there were no plans for a new financing round, but expects the company to exceed the estimated US$700mil investment figure “very quickly”.

Grab is currently estimated to be valued at more than US$3bil.
02/11/2017 10:32
Victor Yong https://paultan.org/2017/09/06/new-nissan-leaf-confirmed-for-2018-malaysian-launch/
02/11/2017 11:15
Victor Yong once announced, auto stocks will rise :)
A policy for the maximum permissible lifespan of vehicles in Malaysia has been in the works, and the study towards that is now at its final stage, according to a Bernama report. A proposal to incentivise owners of older vehicles to change those for newer ones is included as part of the study, which must be presented to Cabinet before its tabling in Parliament.
02/11/2017 11:30
Victor Yong https://paultan.org/2017/10/30/study-for-vehicle-end-of-life-policy-at-final-stage-liow/
02/11/2017 11:31
nikicheong Victor, calm down.

1) Grab and Tan Chong are wholly unrelated. This has been said many times. Don't dream of anything happening.

2) Nissan Leaf is still too expensive. Do not expect any appreciable contribution from there.

However, look at this: https://paultan.org/2017/10/27/spied-2018-nissan-serena-seen-testing-in-malaysia/

Tan Chong needs to launch new models for Serena, X-Trail, Teana, Almera and Livina. This is where the high level impact will come from!
02/11/2017 13:34
Victor Yong Nikki, yup. launch something like juke to compete with honda hrv, etc. Nissan offers good customer services at service centres. if they have the right products, I would buy :)
02/11/2017 19:03
Victor Yong tchong's net asset per share is almost 3 times the current share price. any chance for privatisation and relisting later e.g. astro, etc? :)
03/11/2017 13:37
nikicheong Not likely to be privatized, since Tan Chong does have major debt. Even then the credit rating is strong, since Tan Chong is publicly listed. If it is wanted to be taken private, the banks won't be too happy. Also Tan Chong's ownership is fragmented and no longer concentrated in a single person's hands (the family got many feuds, so hard to combine and get a controlling stake). Unlike Astro, which was mainly owned by one man and wasn't swimming in debt so relatively easy to take private then re-IPO when the market recovers.

In short, almost zero chance of being taken private or delisted. We are at the very bottom, if not darn near to it (~10% from the bottom). I.e. I see the absolute bottom being at ~RM1.42. Good buy!
09/11/2017 23:33
nikicheong @DualShock, I have already spoken about the reason for the slow model update. Look at my posts from before.

At these prices and valuation...close eye and buy lah. Sure double, possibly 4x, maybe even 6x upwards in a 5 year period. Tan Chong isn't going anywhere.
22/11/2017 21:23
nikicheong Not BV per say, but the trough situation. We are at the bottom of the cycle. Improving Ringgit, improving GDP in Malaysia and Indochina, new models in the pipeline...from bottom to top, companies easily move 4-6x. Now the question is, are we at (or near) the bottom? That is the key.

Btw I like the Q3 report. Regardless there will be a selldown tomorrow and I will be there to pick up the pieces. Some of them at least.
28/11/2017 20:46
Yu_and_Mee why buy in downtrend counter?
28/11/2017 21:21
Jon Choivo For the last few years, the car sector is not in the trough, but actually increasing, only recently start to taper.

Even when the sector is booming, tanchong can still die. This is not related to the industry but the company.

Just cause you lost money in this counter, does not mean you need to make it back here.

This company is being choked alive, due to mismanagement clearly.

Posted by nikicheong > Nov 28, 2017 08:46 PM | Report Abuse

Not BV per say, but the trough situation. We are at the bottom of the cycle. Improving Ringgit, improving GDP in Malaysia and Indochina, new models in the pipeline...from bottom to top, companies easily move 4-6x. Now the question is, are we at (or near) the bottom? That is the key.

Btw I like the Q3 report. Regardless there will be a selldown tomorrow and I will be there to pick up the pieces. Some of them at least.
28/11/2017 21:25
Yu_and_Mee Cut loss and use the money to invest in other profitable counter, may give better return instead of holding an uncertain profit company.
Below companies either loss making company or price falling serious company may be useful as reference.

Aeon, Century, Carepls, Cscsteel, Dayang, Dnex, Ekovest, Esceram, Ffhb, Flbhd, Gamuda, Gadang, Harbour, Hohup, Huayang, IQgroup, Iwcity, Karex, KSL, Latitud, Microln, Mitra, Muda, Opcom, Parkson, Pesona, Sapnrg, Scable, Sendai, Sign, Superln, Tnlogis, TRC, Tchong, Titijya, Uzma, YTL and lain-lain lagi

Though one day they may rebound and go high and higher but why invest in uncertain instead of follow the trend to get profitable counters? If they are good, once confirmed profitable in QR, only come back still not too late.
Just 2 cents.
28/11/2017 22:03
nikicheong Thanks for your kind concerns dear folks. I am more than capable of thinking for myself. My investment style has served me very well indeed. Tan Chong Motors will be a winner. When? I don't know. But till that happens, I can rest easy knowing I am buying into a company that will surely rebound in the mid to long term.

Look at MHB.

The stock market is forward looking. Tan Chong is selling at depressed valuations. Any minor news (new car launch for example) will serve as a catalyst to bridge the valuation gap.

We shall judge the rationality of my decision in the 12-24 month period.
28/11/2017 22:58
Yu_and_Mee Add new members: Simeprop, Success

Aeon, Century, Carepls, Cscsteel, Dayang, Dnex, Ekovest, Esceram, Ffhb, Flbhd, Gamuda, Gadang, Harbour, Hohup, Huayang, IQgroup, Iwcity, Karex, KSL, Latitud, Microln, Mitra, Muda, Opcom, Parkson, Pesona, Sapnrg, Scable, Sendai, Sign, Simeprop, Success, Superln, Tnlogis, TRC, Tchong, Titijya, Uzma, YTL and lain-lain lagi
30/11/2017 15:47
Yu_and_Mee And Simeplt
30/11/2017 15:48
Yu_and_Mee sunset counter unless "someone" come to secure. basically it is end
17/12/2017 09:57
godhand The big boss plan to end the car business and venture into other business
17/12/2017 12:30
nikicheong Entered once more today @1.38. Avg price now at 1.60. Tan Chong Motors is well-positioned to benefit from the strengthening Ringgit, rebound in consumer sentiment (which always eventually mirrors GDP growth rate) and launch of new models in the new year (namely Serena Hybrid 2018 and Xtrail 2018, plus one or two other launches). Possible upside from quick growth in Indochina as well, namely Vietnam and Myanmar.

Tan Chong trades at very undemanding valuations. True, it could be a value trap, but this is also precisely the type of company that becomes a multi-bagger over the long term (5-10 years) due to the depressed valuations.
26/12/2017 19:42
Rusli Widad Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd has secured the rights to be the exclusive distributor, assembler and after-sales service provider of King Long products in Vietnam.

Its wholly-owned subsidiary TC Motor Vietnam Co Ltd (TCMV) entered into the exclusive distributorship agreement with Xiamen King Long United Automotive Industry Co Ltd.

The partnership with the Chinese company which specialises in the design, production and sale of various buses and coaches, will help facilitate Tan Chong’s penetration into the different bus and coach segments.
11/01/2018 07:15
goody99 Not bad, earnings this year should improve over last year. Still a baby bull
15/01/2018 11:09
Lau Choong Ling Many buy under nominee, any idea why ??
20/01/2018 17:38
tuapuikia when this counter will move?
12/03/2018 13:37
tuapuikia Plan to buy
12/03/2018 13:38

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