chabalangIVKLSE: do you know the concept of consolidation in accounting? Most of IGB's debts are parked under IGB Reit. From both balance sheet and cash flows perspective, IGB is one of the most financially sound property counters in Msia. However, its gearing MAY edge up in 15-17 due to its SouthKey Megamall in Iskandar, London and Southpoint@Mid valley projects.
Caveat: IGB is a not a short-term stock - you must have patience and 'out-wait' the Tan family for its potential. Its Southkey megamall will be a key catalyst from 2017.
FYI: http://www.theedgeproperty.com.my/content/igb-rm15b-cash-pile-generate-recurring-income . The article is more than two years ago but IGB's current cash position & cash flows at holding coy are still healthy after getting that cashpile from listing of IGB Reit.
You should also read independent adviser's report on Goldis' takeover offer on IGB in 2014.
Win188maybe IGB should consider reward shareholder by giving treasury shares to us since IGB has so many treasury shares...
IVKLSE@ fast & @ KKP05 Don't misunderstood me, I did not say IGB cannot pay the debt in 2016. Let make it clear I just their current cash reserve is insufficient base on latest quarterly report. However there are many ways to pay the debt such as 1) roll over - might get higher interest rate 2) private placement - dilute the share price
@chabalang Yes the loan is mostly owned by IGBREIT which 50% owned by IGB. Around 60+% of the IGB 2014 profit is from the MVM and TGM are which is part under IGBREIT which means if IGBREIT is going to pay the loan indirectly IGB will had lower profit sharing from MVM and TGM.
As for Southkey mall will be a key catalyst from 2017, in my opinion it might not be. Looking at the property market in Malaysia this year especially in Johor has slow down. I might agree the shopping mall might attract Singaporean to come and shop in the future. However as for the hotel and office blocks in my opinion it might not be as good as Midvalley currently as Midvalley located in a strategic location. Malaysian would rather to work in Singapore than to work in Johor because is just a few kilometer away and can earn more in term of Ringgit Malaysia. Big multinational company will rather be in Kuala Lumpur.
As for the hotel, I think besides Legoland Johor might not have must attraction to attract tourism compared to Kuala Lumpur. Johor is also located far away from KLIA and Senai airport is too small to cater the tourism. The only tourism I can think of is either Singaporean or foreigner visit to Singapore and drop by Johor just to make a visit to Malaysia.
chabalangIVKLSE: I can accept your viewpoint that Southkey's office and hotel components may not fare as well as Mid Valley City in KL (the demand-supply dynamics for office/hotel in Iskandar is rather weak at the moment) but timing will be key. However, the office/commercial part will be phased out and not be built first (will be timed accordingly - remember even Mid Valley City was planned in the late 1908s and construction commenced in the 1990s -> it took more than 20 years to build until its last/current project - Southpoint) . The first phase of Southkey project is the shopping mall. If you understand JB retail scene and know the connectivity of the Southkey Megamall, you can appreciate better why I think it will be successful. Firstly, it will be the biggest shopping mall in JB - size, location/accessibility and mall management matter in retail space. Secondly, its connectivity/location is the one of the best among its key competitors (currently, the most popular malls in JB are City Square/Komtar, Aeon Tebrau City, KSL Mall, Angsana Tampoi and Sutera Mall) - > its direct link to EDL is the key and it is only 5 min from the CIQ. Thirdly, IGB will have a ready tenant pool from its Megamall & Gardens shopping malls and has run both of them successfully.
As for your debt analysis on IGB, it is too flawed for me to explain...sorry about that. It will be too long for me to explain why your analysis is off tangent. For liquidity/debt stress analysis, you have to look at CASH FLOWS (IGB REIT is supposed to be geared for 'optimal' capital structure - you should look at interest expense coverage and maturity profile of loans/financing). For simplicity, just ask any experienced corporate banker whether they think IGB can repay loans/financing or not. We are all still learning - keep an open mind...a good start is to read the two independent advisers' reports on Goldis' takeover offer on IGB (you can get it from Bursa -> one is for Goldis s/hs and the other is for IGB s/hs).
BTW, someone/some parties have been slowly 'pressing down' IGB share price in the past few weeks - for unknown reason(s) (or rather cannot be posted on a share forum). The sellers' brokers are mainly from CS, UBS, CLSA and Hwang-Affin, they (CS and UBS) have been selling 1 bid lower in 'bite-sizes' (it is untypical of big-time foreign brokers such as CS and UBS to sell in 1 or 2 lots as it is a waste of their time unless there are specific instructions to do so or to meet an objective). Guess for yourself why they are doing that. If you study IGB's shareholding structure (Goldis owns 73.4% (excluding extended Tan family direct holdings), EPF - 5.1%, Public Mutual funds - 4.4%, GIC - 1.4% and treasury shares - 2.2% , you will know the remaining free float of IGB in the market is less than 15% in the market.
Win188chabalang...u mean someone pressed down the price slowly recently to let other party collect it at low price then IGB being take over?
chabalangwin188: out today (25/11). The key issue with IGB: is it a "value trap"? A lot boils down to whether the major s/h (Tan family) wants to share the 'true value' of the group with minority shareholders or not (related to corporate governance). Current mkt sentiment is unfavourable to property counters, but IGB is more an investment properties holding company than a property developer.