Highlights
KLSE: PETRONM (3042)       PETRON MSIA REFINING& MKTG BHD MAIN : Industrial Products
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
13.20   +1.92 (17.02%)  10.90 - 13.20  2,002,200
Analyze this stock with MQ Trader system

Overview

Market Cap: 3,563 Million
NOSH: 270 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):744,922
4 Weeks Range:10.90 - 15.06
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
55.29%
52 Weeks Range:4.24 - 15.06
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
82.81%
Average Price Target: 14.46
Price Target Upside/Downside: +1.26

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 30-Sep-2017[#3]  |  23-Nov-2017
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Dec-2017  |  22-Feb-2018
T4Q P/E | EY: 8.52  |  11.74%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 1.67%  |  14.20%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 5.2226  |  2.53
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 4.26%  |  29.67%

Headlines

Date Subject
19-Jan-2018 BACK TO BASICS: PETRON (TP: RM13.71) - BULLISH Q4FY17 OUTLOOK!
17-Jan-2018 Call Warrant: TALES OF PETRON AND HENGYUAN - Afiq Isa
17-Jan-2018 下跌股:Petron大马RM11.78支撑
07-Jan-2018 恒源、PETRON大马疯涨……
29-Dec-2017 Profit taking on Hengyuan, Petron
28-Dec-2017 Daily Technical Highlights - (PETRONM, PCHEM)
23-Dec-2017 Hengyuan vs Petronm
06-Dec-2017 Petron (RM9.60, TP: RM13.71) - BULLISH Q4FY17 OUTLOOK!
03-Dec-2017 (richDad): PETRONM - 3 reasons why it is a SELL now
24-Nov-2017 Mplus Market Pulse - 24 Nov 2017
24-Nov-2017 Petron Msia Refining And Marketing - Significantly Better
20-Nov-2017 Petron Msia Refining and Marketing - Powering Malaysia for Over 80 Years
16-Nov-2017 Daily Technical Highlights - (PETRONM, PTRANS)
09-Nov-2017 What determines the earning for PETRONM?
09-Nov-2017 CASE STUDY: HOW SOME PROFIT FROM HIGHER FUEL PRICES!
06-Oct-2017 Petron (RM9.60, TP: RM12.35) - BULLISH Q3FY17 OUTLOOK!
04-Oct-2017 年增15间油站.提炼业务拉抬.PETRON大马势不可挡
28-Sep-2017 NAGA Warrants 2017 Ninth Issuance - Opportunity to Position Ahead for Seasonally Stronger Quarters
19-Sep-2017 Daily Technical Highlights - (BONIA, PETRONM)
11-Sep-2017 Petron (RM9.60, TP: RM11.32) - Capitalizing on the Surge in Crude Oil Price & Refinery Margins!

Business Background

Esso Malaysia Berhad is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of petroleum products in Peninsular Malaysia. The Company is a subsidiary of ExxonMobil International Holdings Incorporated, whose ultimate holding company is Exxon Mobil Corporation.
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  7 people like this.
 
Kyou GOOD to heard that ...HY-CO reli gain alot today from early morning until closing ..XD
19/01/2018 18:25
pjseow George Leong I agree with you a fair PE should be about 12 . With estimated earning after tax of RM 1.60 for 2017 , the target price should be about 19.20 . There is still upside of RM 6 with the current price of RM 13.20 .
19/01/2018 19:38
George Leong Ya, see if the market can rate it at 12x :)
19/01/2018 21:09
phankheefei Monday still can buy in? Today sold hy and petronm too early,just earn a bit so sad
19/01/2018 22:10
moneyJohn No need to be too sad, opportunity is still out there. Just be patient.
19/01/2018 22:33
Awet91 Yeap you can still buy but dont sailang hehe.
19/01/2018 22:40
moneyJohn probability RIL posts record profit on refining margins boost, Reliance Jio show:

Last Published: Fri, Jan 19 2018. 07 52 PM IST

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/glFPckmkcqijLXOsCm2RRO/Reliance-Jio-...
19/01/2018 22:36
19/01/2018 22:58
moneyJohn Other refineries from overseas shld post record profit arldy
19/01/2018 23:00
moneyJohn https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjpyv2apuTYAhXFMI8KHfrJAUIQFgg8MAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Fus-japan-refiners%2Fjapanese-oil-refiner-profits-rise-as-they-max-out-runs-to-cash-in-on-high-margins-idUSKBN1DE16X&usg=AOvVaw34QNGmS8RwSO6FAPsjttvO
19/01/2018 23:05
moneyJohn PetroChina's Guangxi refinery posts record profit in 2017 | - Kitco


http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-01-18/PetroChina-apos-s-Guangxi-refiner...
19/01/2018 23:09
moneyJohn Record-high Profits Amid Uncertain Variables: S. Korea's Oil Refiners ...

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/industry/20284-record-high...
19/01/2018 23:12
moneyJohn Most pointers towards record profit largely driven by improved crack spread........see for yourself in Feb 2018.
19/01/2018 23:22
sheldon Unbelievable!!!! x 3. Have a great weekend & one round of drinks in honor of Petron!
19/01/2018 23:37
lowprofileone stockraider Raider says alot of soochai like 3iii don know how to interpret this piece of good news loh....!!

Record-High Profits Amid Uncertain Variables
S. Korea’s Oil Refiners Expected to Surpass 8 Trillion Won in Surplus in 2017 For First Time
South Korean top four oil refiners are expected to post more than 8 trillion won (US$7.53 billion) in surplus last year for the first time in history.
South Korean top four oil refiners are expected to post more than 8 trillion won (US$7.53 billion) in surplus last year for the first time in history.
Seoul, Korea
15 January 2018 - 2:30pm
Jung Min-hee

The major four South Korean oil refiners are expected to post more than 8 trillion won (US$7.53 billion) in surplus last year for the first time in history thanks to stable oil prices and a boom in non-oil refining business, including petrochemical.
1ST OF ALL 2017 WILL RECORD SUPERB REFINERY PROFIT FOR ALL REFINERY THROUGH OUT THE WORLD MAH

According to oil refining industry sources on January 14, SK innovation Co., GS Caltex Corp., S-Oil Corp. and Hyundai Oilbank Co. are now summing up their sales performance in the fourth quarter last year and the combined operating profit of the four companies are expected to reach 2.1 trillion to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.98 billion to 2.17 billion).
2ND 4TH QUARTER WILL REGISTER WORLD RECORD PROFIT JUST LIKE HENGYUAN MAH....!!

The oil refiners saw their profitability improve in the fourth quarter because the global economic recovery boosted the refining margin of oil products, which is a profit subtracting the costs of crude oil and distribution from the market value of oil products, and heating demands in the winter were higher than expected. In the fourth quarter, the refining margin remained at the US$6 to 8 (6,372 to 8,496 won) level due to stable international oil prices, showing a stable profitability. Moreover, oil refining firms had a high naphtha spread, which is a profit subtracting the cost of crude oil from the value of naphtha, in the petrochemical sector, which has been focused by oil refiners as their oil refining phase-out strategy, owing to the rise in global demands.
GLOBAL ECONOMY RECOVERY BOOSTED REFINERY MARGIN. STRONG WINTER BOOSTED DEMAND FOR HEATING,,,ALSO NAPTHA SPREAD HAD IMPROVEDTHE REFINERY MARGIN REMAINED AT USD 6 TO 8 IN WHICH HENGYUAN REGISTERED AN AVERAGE OF USD 8 CRACK MARGIN FOR 2017

Accordingly, the four oil refiners had an estimated surplus of 7.7 trillion to 7.9 trillion won (US$7.25 billion to 7.44 billion) in total last year. By company, SK Innovation is forecast to post 3.29 trillion to 3.34 trillion won (US$3.1 billion to 3.14 billion), GS Caltex 1.84 trillion to 1.9 trillion won (US$1.73 billion to 1.79 billion), S-Oil with 1.46 trillion to 1.5 trillion won (US$1.37 billion to 1.41 billion) and Hyundai Oilbank 1.14 trillion to 1.18 trillion won (US$1.07 billion to 1.11 billion).
With the current estimates, SK Innovation and Hyundai Oilbank hit a new record high for the year after posting 3.23 trillion won (US$3.04 billion) and 970 billion won (US$913.29 million), respectively, at the previous year. SK AND HYUNDAI HIT RECORD PROFIT, WHICH IN LINE HENGYUAN HIT RECORD PROFIT TOO....!!

Depending on the situation, the four oil refiners are likely to surpass an annual surplus of over 8 trillion won (US$7.53 billion) for the first time in the domestic industry. Their combined surplus in 2016 when it reached a record high stood at 7.95 trillion won (US$7.49 billion). MSIA 3 REFINERY WILL SURPASSED THE HISTORICAL RECORD PROFIT TOO.

An official from the industry said, “The fact that the price of oil showed a stable increase at the US$50 to 60 (53,090 to 63,708 won) level per barrel is a decisive factor for oil refiners achieving the highest gains last year for two years in a row. For oil refining companies, the demand-leading market structure that the price of oil products increases with a stable trend, rather than volatility in oil prices, is the most appropriate for profitability.” FROM DEC 2017 OIL PRICE HAD MOVED CLOSER TO USD 70, WHICH POSITIVE WITH MORE THAN 10% INVENTORY GAIN.

However, oil refiners are worried about oil prices that have been skyrocketing from the end of December last year. As the price of Brent crude oil climbed to the US$70 (74,326 won) mark a barrel because of numerous variables, such as the fall in the U.S. oil reserves and the extensive delay of sanctions against Iran as well as the OPEC’s extension of cutting oil production, the refining margin dropped to the US$6 (6,396 won) level a barrel, which is slightly over the break-even point. IN MSIA BREAKEVEN LEVEL IS USD 2.5 TO 3 PER BARREL, IN FACT IT IS A QUICK DIP, THE MOGAS 92 SPORE HAD ALREADY RECOVERED BACK TO USD 7.7 PER BARREL FOR JAN 2018.
THE FUTURE INDICATE CME SPREAD PRICE RANGE OF USD 7.7 TO USD 10.3 PER BARREL WITH AVERAGE OF USD 8.8 PER BARREL WHICH IS VERY HEALTHY EVEN COMPARE TO AVG USD 8 PER BARREL IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD PROFITAB
20/01/2018 01:05
lowprofileone Based on the various reports, Petronm profit shld also be record high for FY17, Monday fly all the d
20/01/2018 01:07
Lee Yih Yeong can petronm beat hengyuan in coming quarters?
20/01/2018 07:22
lowprofileone Halite, pls share the joy we have here !
20/01/2018 07:45
Halite I still strongly believe in the long run market is a weighing machine. Petronm should be better than Hengyuan. Of course, at a higher price than now.
I take nestle and dutchlady as exampled to illustrate that valuation based on low PE alone can be inaccurate. The growth the sustainability should be taken into consoderation, not just sentiment which no doubt is most important in the short term
20/01/2018 10:06
Halite I see some of friends worry about the 14b expansion. They are actually have misunderstood my good friend stockraider and probility view. They are using this to prove the value of hengyuan.
So you see hengyuan needs petronm to prove its worth, how can petronm foreever lie low under hengyuan, at leat a few ringgits higher like before.
Right?
20/01/2018 10:21
Halite By RHB
12 January 2018

Petron Malaysia

Pumping More To Fuel Growth

We spoke to management recently and came away still feeling positive on Petron Malaysia. EBITDA is expected to average at MYR100-200m – bringing its net cash balance to >MYR500m in FY18. The group has turned into a net cash company since 2Q17, and its net cash balance ballooned to MYR113m in 3Q17. Petron Malaysia’s refining spreads are expected to remain high due to strong demand for gasoline products, while capacity addition in the region remains subdued in 2018. Maintain BUY and MYR16.20 TP (22% upside).

Cash coffer to strengthen further. Petron Malaysia’s EBITDA is expected to average MYR100-200m in the current market environment, and the group’s cash balance could surpass the MYR500m level by end-FY18. This is if margins are sustained. We note that Petron Malaysia’s balance sheet turned into net cash in 2Q17, and its net cash balance ballooned to MYR113m (42 sen/share) in 3Q17 with zero debt.

This, however, would not translate into higher dividends, as the extra cash is most likely to be reserved for future expansion in refining capacity and petrol station refurbishments. This is because there is still room for growth for the group in the domestic market.

Gross margins to sustain. We believe GPM can be sustained at c.MYR23.00/bbl for 2018, as demand for gasoline products remains strong. In 9M17, Petron Malaysia’s GP/bbl (the gauge for its refining margins) was strong at MYR22.80/bbl (9M16: MYR17.00/bbl). Capacity addition pressure is likely to be subdued in the year, as no major new refineries in Malaysia are coming on- line. In Indonesia, the 100,000bpd capacity addition by Pertamina is also being delayed to either 2019 or 2020 due to financing issues.

USD3.5bn allocated for expansion in refining capacity. Petron Corp, Petron Malaysia’s Philippines-based parent company, is investing c.MYR3.5bn on another refining facility on top of its current Port Dickson facility. This would more than double its capacity to 178,000bpd (an additional 90,000bpd). The indicated timeline for the completion of the new facility is in 2020.

It is too early to indicate to accurate earnings potential for the group, but the facility could potentially bring in more diverse products into Petron Malaysia’s portfolio, ie aromatics and other petrochemicals. This is in addition to its existing products, namely gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

Maintain BUY and MYR16.20 TP (22% upside). We are maintaining our forecasts. Our TP is kept also at MYR16.20, which is pegged to 12.5x FY18F P/E. This is still at a steep discount when compared to Petronas Dagangan’s 25x FY18F P/E. We continue to like Petron Malaysia due to its above market growth in sales volume, as well as expectations of strong refining margins. Risks to call include a reversal in such margins and an unplanned shutdown at its refinery.
12/01/2018 11:05
20/01/2018 10:29
oldeagle BREAKING NEWS :

KYY sells his block off market to CHINA and Russian for at least RM22, gap up coming on Monday lor...................................really huat huat huat this time
20/01/2018 11:35
Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes klse.i3investor.com/blogs/SASARANHARGASTOCK/143660.jsp
20/01/2018 11:37
Halite if you are still worry about the expansion, read this news .


A 3 folds increase in EBITA !!!!

You must be thinking too much if you feel PE 16 is not possible in the near future with the current sentiment


Petron refinery expansion seen completed by 2020
By Lenie Lectura - January 1, 2018

THE refinery expansion of Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd. could be finished in two years, its top official said.

“If it is a go, it will be finished in year 2020,” Petron President Ramon Ang said. “The Malaysian expansion, if we will add 90,000 barrels per day [bpd], then it would cost $3.5 billion.

Petron Malaysia operates Petron Port Dickson refinery, which has a capacity of approximately 88,000 bpd, producing a range of petroleum products, which include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), industrial and commercial fuels and aviation fuels. Its fuels are distributed from approximately eight depots and terminals.

The company also operates over 560 retail-service stations across the nation.

It offers Blaze 95RON, Blaze 97RON Euro 4M and Diesel Max. Its LPG brand, Petron Gasul, provides energy in over 12 kilograms (kg) and 14 kg for households. It also offers a range of industrial fuel products, including Automotive Diesel Oil, Mogas, Kerosene and Jet A1. Its service stations also provide convenience stores with amenities, such as shopping marts and fast-food restaurants.

Ang said Petron Malaysia is “No. 3” in terms of market share.

In 2012 Petron announced its acquisition of a 65-percent stake in Esso Malaysia Berhad. It also signed a deal to buy subsidiaries ExxonMobil Borneo Sdn Bhd and ExxonMobil Malaysia for $404 million, bringing the total transaction to $610 million. Rebranding and upgrading programs commenced in the same year.

“The business in Malaysia is going well. We bought it when its Ebita [Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] is $20 million. This year [2017], we will end at $270 million in Ebita,” Ang said. “With the expansion, it should give us $600 million a year, from $20 million.”
20/01/2018 11:58
Halite come on ,

my good friends here

share your joys here

we must restore our previous years' glory , leading Hengyuan at least RM3 ahead .

of course , at a higher price from now .

I believe , all my good friends in Hengyuan also wish we can do that
20/01/2018 12:02
Halite create a strong sentiment here

do your part to stir up the sentiment like our friends are doing in hengyuan

do not let a good stock forever lie low , forever left behind ...

Now is the time to

RAISE ...... !!!!!!!!
20/01/2018 12:09
Halite here we have no KYY

KYY had already voice his regret to have not sold hengyuan

here we have only OTB sifu

there is no worry of any significant person to sell now

we can not remain quiet.

we can not forever follow hengyuan up we up, hengyuan down we down

we have all the prerequisite conditions to lead hengyuan

why should we stay at the back in term of market price

we want to lead hengyuan to win BIG.... BIG ....
20/01/2018 12:16
Halite IF WHAT WE ARE PROMOTING

IS GOOD,

THE STORIES WE TELL

ARE TRUE

THEN

SILENCE IF THE COURSE OF OUR FAILURE

FEAR AND WORRY THAT LATER WE ARE ATTACKED IS

OUR WEAKNESS IN OUR CHARACTER THAT MUST NOT BE LEFT UNCHANGED FOREVER
20/01/2018 12:23
maxweng Yes, Petronm will continue to soar from here...
20/01/2018 12:27
oldeagle Something indirectly good for Petronm too


probability There are no operators involved. Either China or Local IB funds negative bias had been overturned and forced to buyback by the Korean refiners news...and Indian refiners news. Thus, speculative news would no longer be effective for their advantage. They were forces to admit the reality.

They will not let go since results are confirmed spectacular.

May retest 19 again..
20/01/2018 12:19
20/01/2018 12:29
Halite they will not let go, but they will let the hell breaks lose if
1. Q1 is no good
2. Tax expenses come in
3. increasing maintenance cost that is not easy to control
4. crack spread volatility
5. many other factor that you and I do not know
20/01/2018 12:55
probability Halite, actually all hell will break lose when Petron corp announce the RM 14 billion investment soon...

seriously.
20/01/2018 12:58
lowprofileone I will make sure Mr Ang read this msg to prevent the hell from breaking loose by taking preemptive measures before the announcement.

Thank you for the concern and input from the forum. Thank you again and again.
20/01/2018 13:03
Halite Don't worry
14b expansion will make the wall stronger, more than 3 times. All will benefit.
20/01/2018 14:00
probability I meant in a positive sense to HY..probably nothing will happen to petronm after the news
20/01/2018 14:03
Halite I also hope nothing will happen to hengyuan
In fact, i hope hengyuan will perfirm better
That is a good evidence the expansion is right
20/01/2018 14:13
Halite why and how KYY sailang into Jaks and
willing to break his own golden rules to trade

the reason is similar here.

there is an expansion in jaks that only those with business sense like him can see clearly
we still can't see because we can only the big figure 14b ,
we can't see the wonder how this 14b can do
20/01/2018 14:23
Halite WB : WHEN YOU SEE THE ROBIN , SPRING IS OVER
20/01/2018 14:24
Halite Now do you still see nothing will happen to petronm
but , if you still can not
then look at Jaks ,
the blind also can see clearly that Jaks had changed from "nobody want" to "many people want"
you will surprise to see ,once the expansion has started,
KYY will join in to write good article to teach us "invest with good business sense "
20/01/2018 14:32
pjseow Ebita of $ 600 million per year with $ 3.5 billion investment give a return of 17 % . For those funds which only gets a return of less than 10 % per year might be interested to invest . 17 % is equivalent to a PE of 5.88 which is even lower than the current Petronm PE of 8.5 at yesterday price of RM 13.20 . If the Analysts felt that Petronm business deserved a PE of 12.5x , the investment of $ 3.5 billion to generate future income
of $ 600 million per year is worth the money .
20/01/2018 14:35
20/01/2018 14:39
Halite I talk with fact and data
No expansion, no growth
Who want to put money foever in a no growth company
But the market operators always like to create fear to depress the price before they sing it is a good buy
Any expansion for hengyuan other than crack spread volatility
20/01/2018 14:46
pjseow Assuming the current Petronm do not want to borrow to fund such a huge upgrade and expansion but offer 1 billion new shares at RM 14 per share .
The total number of shares will be 270 million + 1 billion = 1.270 billion shares . With the earning of $ 600 million or 2.4 billion ringgit per year , the eps is 189 s . By then Petronm has the state of the art refinery + more than 600 petrol kiosks which sells the highest grade premium products . With a PE of 12.5 , this translates into RM 23.6 per share , an upside of more than RM 10 from yesterday price . The assumption is that there will be re investment tax allowances for many years .
20/01/2018 14:57
KL Tneoh Just sharing my view :

1) the $14 Billions expansion is not only refinery capacity addition, one of the key factor is Petro Chemical. This will be the full integrated refinery. Base on the my rough estimation, out of the US$600 millions EBITDA mentioned in the report, around US$300 mils will come from refinery, retail around US$100 mils & the rest of US$200 mils will be from Petrol Chemical. Petrol Chemical is a very lucrative business, that is why PChem & LCTitan are worth so much.

2) Funding of this 14 Bils, most likely it will be combinations of private placement + loans + cash JV (very likely) + cash call.

Short term very unlikely there will a right issue, cause

- Petron Corp is currently holding 73.39% of PetronM, if they do a right issue any mishaps of shareholding % (some shareholders did not pick up the right), it will trigger MO if the holding touch 75%. And if the right is call Petron Corp got to come up a lot of cash too, which they are short too.

- Petron Corp is short of funding at the moment too, they will list a US$350 mils bond at Philippine at this coming 19/1/2018, the purpose for the funding is to redeem part of the US$700 mils bond listed at HKSE which is going to mature this year. They will apply another $700 mils bond listing at SGX for the remaining redemption later this year.

- Petron Corp is just secured another huge loan for Philippine refinery upgrade for 2018.

So, personally I think if the US$14 B expansion is go ahead then very likely there will be a private placement come first (funding + dilution purpose) + loan + JV (with such a important enery business , wouldn’t EPF or Khazanah want a piece of it ?), then only right issue will be call.

Of course the expansion had another side of story too, at least short term dividend payout ratio will be affected.

Anyway just my personal view, I might be wrong.
20/01/2018 14:58
Halite Kl Tneoh,

Thanks
20/01/2018 15:48
pjseow Thanks Tneoh for your opinion.
20/01/2018 16:20
20/01/2018 16:22
LogicTrading KL Teoh must have talked to manegement d, so deep analysis one. Maybe he was on the board room too.

Anyway, we all must thank him a lot for this info and foresight which make me wanted to add more by selling off all my properties to sailang on this cash cow with sound expansion plan to be completed on such a short period, i.e. only 2 yrs for a huge 14 bil spending.

I love it and will spend the whole of this weekend to check how much funding I'm able to raise on the shortest possible time as we dun have much time left before the share price shoots over 15/16 or KYY or OTB or Fred Tham come on board BIG WAY !
20/01/2018 16:41
KL Tneoh I m just sharing info only, and I have been holding this counter for 2 yrs plus hence I had gather some useful info along the line.
20/01/2018 17:13
LeeFoundation Surely holding Petronm is on the right track for more wealth accumulation.

TP from our side is super bullish up till RM25/=, but just need to have high level of endurance along the way.

Adding is our focus at this moment.


Good luck all !
20/01/2018 17:27
goongsokaro Overbought. Correction come Monday
20/01/2018 19:08


 

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