| KLSE : FGV || || FELDA GLOBAL VENTURES HLDG BHD |
|Last Price ||Today's Change || Day's Range || Trading Volume |
|1.67 || +0.03 (1.83%) || 1.62 - 1.67 || 9,806,800 |
|Market Cap: || 6,093 Million |
|Shares: || 3,648 Million |
|P/E | EY: || 1,913.15 | 0.05% |
|DY | Payout %: || 1.20% | 2,273.65% |
|NAPS | P/NAPS: || 1.71 | 0.98 |
|Avg Volume (4 weeks):||18,650,800|
|4 Weeks Range:||1.42 - 1.98|
|52 Weeks Range:||1.31 - 2.52|
|Average Price Target: || 1.74 |
|Price Target Upside/Downside: || +0.07 |
Ring Si......(GLC)....after replanting only getting 20mt as compared to IOI 24mt++++.Cost of wages n fertiliser is much higher as compared to 1970-2010 n during this period only 20mt n after replanting with all "new high yielding seedlings" still cannot get IOI yield which means S...failed. Lately I read in d media S... going to take plantation on its own as they are also worried becoz of low yield n their overhead expenditure is too high. It was raised in Parliament why GLC plantation not paying high dividend as compared to thier peers. So govt decided to merge GLCs' to reduce overhead hence may be able to pay higher dividend. AEB,Golden Hope,Guthrie n Sime merged n Sime suppose to hv more experience hence they head d team. During that time of merging S... was taliking of 50cts dividend but only paying 20-25 cts, now want to separate plantation from housing etc, again talking......??????, get yield similar to IOI. To get d yield is very simple, simple, simple. When free I shall write "simple ways to improve yield".
Lk036 Low yield reason: 1) sleeping and bikin too many anak,that why bn can win election
2) give fertiliser but sell fertiliser to Chinese to get quick cash.
3) felda ppl think got govern support, so why worry. Sabar and takdir. This is the kind of thinking no matter high is their post held even as PM.
Ring Si..... having 600,000 ha n for every increase in 1mt of fruit per/ha/yr = 600,000 x 1mt of fruit x RM600/mt of fruit = RM360,000,000 lost due to human factor. Is it seroius or not????? Govt also lossing tax, my mind always boggles on this kind of happening.
Lk036 I also buy felda fertiliser at discount price from market.
Ring Lk036, security very tight so fertiliser n fruit cannot steal n sell, no way. I was working with this Co so not true. During my time with whites, mgr says his eyes must fall on every palm during fertiliser application program. " low yield due to poor supervision" n mgrs have no commitment.
Lk036 Just bought 2 week ago. Bag notice say take boleh di jual beli. Ioi or sime, yes security very tight but not felda cos insider are selling, ard rm 52/ big 50 kg bag.
Ring .....sorry Felda I dont know never worked for them......
Ring Calculation:estates rate their yield as "yield/ha/annum" so 600,000 ha @ 1mt/ha/annum= 600,000 mt of fruits per year @ RM600/mt so what is wrong if so, pls show yr figures.
martinbartesque When CPO price was low last time, farmers put little fertiliser to save cost. Therefore fruit yield was little. When CPO price is high now, they don't have much fruit to sell. Start to put more fertiliser now when CPO is high, it may need few months to get more fruit. Pls don't think Q4 16 will have good yield.
Lk036 2016 till todate only 2 month slightly above rm 600. Some of the month only rm 400 plus.
Also this is the sell ffb price have not deduct cost like labour, fertiliser, grass poisoning, road repair etc.
Ring Estates do soil test n leaf anslysis for agronomist to recommend d right plus actual dosage for each palm (tree). Example if each palm suppose to get 1 cup of fertilser which have to be supervised. 1) fertilser program 2) tractors transport fertiliser to d respective fields 3) workers r given instruction on d actual dosage 4) mgr n tram must ensure all palms receive d exact dosage 5) if mgr not in field to supervise, workers task to finish d bags to get paid 6) workers either put more fert.. for each palm or throw it in the stream to finish d bags 6) joke in d plantation industry.
Lk036 Ring, do you have any method or solution how to solve the ganoderma disease?
Estates do soil test n leaf anslysis for agronomist to recommend d right fertilser plus actual dosage for each palm (tree). Example if each palm suppose to get 1 cup of fertilser which have to be supervised. 1) fertilser program 2) tractors transport fertiliser to d respective fields 3) workers r given instruction on d actual dosage 4) mgr n team must ensure all palms receive d exact dosage 5) if mgr not in field to supervise, workers task to finish d bags to get paid 6) workers either put more fert.. for each palm or throw it in the stream to finish d bags 6) joke in d plantation industry, low yield which leads to: 1) less revenue so less profit or no profit. 2) shareholders no dividend 3) govt no tax money 4) co degraded to PN n either go private or get delisted 5) whose fault.
Lk036 Ring, to my knowledge until now there is no solution. Even estate like ioi is facing same problem. If one find a solution or medicine, I think he/she can very rich with its copyright.
This is a another very important factor of low yield. Tree fr 10yrs onward start to face this problem. By the time tree is 22 yrs old, maybe 50 to 70 % tree left. Time for replanting.
VCBL The shares price uptrend will come back soon
enning22 don't be silly , no way. foreign funds see ringgit soon would fall to 5rm to 1 usd, they run quick,quick.park their money in USD, so how to go up ?you tell me.
BN_menang Tabung Haji always buy. Near GE KWAP join buying as well?
jackgto Foreign funds have been selling alot recently to adjust their portfolio but fgv is able to resist the strong selling force and only drop a little. The adjustment and massive selling is likely over abd klci will be on an uptrend, fgv wil rebound to previous high of 1.64 and maybe breakout. Disclaimer: Just my two cents this is not buy call.
Lk036, UP have their own research station n shd be able to give inputs. Their yield in Peninsular is 28-30 mt. Once i read in d media news, they prefer to stay put in Lower Perak n never ventured into Indo... etc. CEO says he must be there to supervise otherwise yield drops. Main issue in OP Plantation industry is "Supervision/ppl vs yield". No supervision, no yield, no profit, no dividend, co can close shop. Wages n fertilser have gone up but still get low yield, so die. Once i read in d News Paper, article by d Ex-MD of IOI, if any sterile palm found in thier estates, he personally goes to see this palm n speak to it, n ask d palm to bear fruits n give 6 mths notice n stiil no fruit so remove d palm n plant a new palm. So! they leave no stone unturned, so to speak. End of the day supervsion n comittment is d answer. Once estate was on replanting n we received special high yielding seedlings.These s/lings came in polybags n kept in d nursery for replantiing.Once field ready it was planted by new Bangla workers, i belief nobody supervised them. Mgr was asking d staff whether d workers planted with d poly bags or removed d poly b4 planting. He ordered d staff to go and check....???? Issue here is nothing but supervision.
Ring Lk036, Ganoderma, early detection so again 100% supervision. UP shd be able to provide d anwers.
BN_menang At least govn fund KWAP, Tabung Haji is buying FGV. If FF join as well sky is the limit for FGV. CPO big surge recetly will surely benefit big CPO producer like FGV. Sugar hike 30% in Nov will benefit MSM which FGV is majority share holder.
The One • Hi Ring.. very much thank you for your expert views on managing a palm oil venture. Me suggest its better you contact them directly so that necessary actions may be implemented for improvement. Here's their website:
jackgto The One dont so harsh on Ring hahahha
The One • No.. dont get wrong. Very much thankful for Ring's inputs and good for Fgv too. But here may not be right place to discuss on the technicality on palm plantation methods etc ya.. hence my recommendation for him to contact Fgv directly..
Jonathan Keung there is no known cure for ganoderma. only certain so called callwd applications that claim the trees can be strengthen against the ganoderma infection.
only known cure is to debowl andclean the fields. ganoderma infect all trees whether young plantings or old Palm. normally company will fell the old trees.
meisarel Clear sky ahead for FGV. Less T+4 volune to cope from here onwards. Good luck all!
Ring Senior citizens who have knowledge/experience can write as a free lance writer but perhaps this shouldnt be written in this chat as may pose negative effects. I understand but a warning is given.
AdCool Ring, i believe the forumer would like to know more about whether to buy or sell rather than the operation side of it. But thanks for your sharing that I know more on the operation side. I recalled last time there are a person who share on the La Nina effect on Palm Tree as well as the age profile of the tree and its yield which actually enhanced my knowledge more.
Appreciate your sharing on the plantation workers and supervision as that is new to me since I m not from plantation industry.
meisarel Ring. Indeed like Adcool and TheOne, I also find your insight of the palm oil management/operations very informative. Appreciate your sharing and comments.
Max2838 In FGV, it is more about reducing the losses rather than trying to match the crop yields of UP or IOI. They have losses in Felda Iffco & other subsidiaries, losses in palm products on transit as well as in storage, and more losses in the field (for not harvesting frequently each month i.e. 3 x).
They supervise, they check, they look around but they don't see... not easy to see unless you know how.
CEO can say '... money is made with your feet (or feat) and that his new mantra is " What I expect, you can inspect " ... can it be done in Felda and to smallholders ?
I reckon, one way to start is to displace all those managers with waistline above 40 inch. If they have been walking, they wouldn't have such waistlines. Imagine them not walking when they are paid to walk, so severance is the consequence.
FGV need to just begin 2017 by reducing their losses listed above then maybe can improve CPO production by 20% (recovery from the wastage) + another 15% higher crop in 2017 (after-effect year of 2015/16 El Nino) + another 15% CPO price increase (to RM3500 by Feb)... then we can smile our way to the bank
Investo 早安 Friday......................weekend coming :-)
I took some profit in FGV b4 big fall but still got some making loss, i hold long term until election come. After bad result i dun buy more. Reader remember always b careful on forum, dun simply belief everything ppl say good on stock, got ppl working 2gether 2 make misleading coments. Laugh
kenjikool any news when dividend will be announce ?
David Cheong FGV is forming a short term uptrend, resistance at RM1.69, if today' close can sustain at the price of RM1.67, then it will have a BUY signal for next week.
1) Morning star doji pattern is FORM during 28/11 - 31/1.
2) it break the short term resistant at RM1.65 (month july and dec).
3) it form a short term higher high and higher low, and rebounded on this week.
David Cheong good job today ! all of its warrant also go up ~ technically it is a short term buy call, either is from the chart pattern or from the technical indicator ~
kakijudi Technical buy. Whack call warrants for explosive return
Ring Investors: Last week Focus, CEO posted negative pic of fgv today Starbiz one page full again CEO posted fgv cannot survive n hinted of "private". Not only low yield but fraud in the audit report makes it worst. I no expert but feel CEO is informing d public ? which we hv to guess. So pls read first 2moro, i shall post some extract to boggle d mind.
The One • Just sharing.. do monitor closely and exercise care ya. Some may use the election reason to push up the price.. but in reality.. hmm
Ring CEO is just "telling d truth to shame d devils". Recent Assembly one lady said GLC top post shd not be given to ????, now poor settlers money being robbed robbed robbed so how to save fgv reduce over expenditure first !!!!!!!!!,
Ring It doesn’t take an expert to tell us that 2017 will be a tough year but the looming storm ahead for FGV shows the worse has yet to come and as AllianceDBS Research reportedly predicted – “FGV has run limited engines to spur growth, as it has to contend with an older tree age profile which limits organic growth near-term FBB growth.”
Ring .....above is d extract of last paragraph of d starbiz news. Organic seedlings/palm, each of it must be taken care like your own babies, very fragile in order to get 24mt++++ after 5 yrs of replanting to recover replanting cost n see profit after that. The present set of ppl after 60 yrs of experience now ZERO. 2moro if free i write how to save privatised fgv.
AdCool 3 areas to work on:
1. Administrative cost
FGV CEO is working on this and it has bear some positive results in Q3 2016. 93 million lower yoy.
2. LLA fair value change
I have no idea on how they calculate this but if you notice anything above 100 million fair value change loss, FGV is bound to report a loss for that particular quarter. Dont believe me, check back those quarters that FGV reported profit and you would find that the LLA fair value change were much lower.
3. Loss from JV
In fact this isnt new in FGV. The JV has been making loss back in 2011, 2012 and 2013 before turnover to make profit in 2014 and 2015. And as of Q3 2016, the JV has made a loss of 45.2 million for a 9 months period. Whether it would make a bigger loss for 2016, remain to be seen.
Hence if the CEO continues to improve the administrative cost and scrap all those losing JV and manage its LLA better (I have no idea on how he gonna do this. Any accountant or finance guys can give more insights on this?), FGV can tail spin around its business. Well, this is purely based on their financial statement.
Of course FGV needs to work on its efficiency just like what Ring commented.
stockmanmy Not 3 areas...one area only.....ask them to take it back.
Max2838 Analysts usually make depressing assumptions ... like this one....
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 11,2016): BIMB Securities Research has maintained its “Neutral” rating on the plantation sector and kept its crude palm oil (CPO) price assumptions of RM2,300/MT for 2016 (1H2016: RM2,200/MT – RM2,500/MT; 2H2016: RM2,100/MT – RM2,400/MT) and said it believes the discount gap to soybean oil will continue to narrow hence the slowing demand from major importing countries.
In a note today, the research house said macro issue by uncertainty of the world economy and low crude oil prices, may have resulted in heightened volatility in the commodity market and hence, going to dampen demand especially from China, EU and US.
“Maintain Hold on IOI Corporation Bhd (TP: RM4.25), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (TP: RM21.04), Batu Kawan Bhd (TP: RM17.80) and TSH Resources Bhd (TP: RM1.95).
“Due to recent price run-up, we have a Sell on IJM Plantations Bhd (TP: RM3.20), Genting Plantations Bhd (TP: RM9.60), Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (TP: RM1.31) and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd (TP: RM2.06) while a non-rated for TH Plantations Bhd (TP: RM1.17),” it said.
Inserted from <http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/bimb-securities-keeps-cpo-price-assumption-rm2300-2016>
Max2838 Higher CPO prices like what it is now (RM 3100 pmt) normally make the problems disappear, especially for plantation companies .... don't worry about the small issues ... a good CEO is what you need
klee read this sohai..
Posted by Mangojuice at Dec 11, 2016 12:12 PM | Report Abuse
For past month, hedge funds have their spoils, enjoying mountains of gains from dollar strengthening and Dow spectacular rise! But all good things must come to an end especially if it's way too much of a rise!
Come Wednesday, US markets will be in for a major shocker! Yellen will not increase by a quarter basis point but times that with 3! Yup, it's long coming since dollar has rising too much too! And boy, will those triple hike hurt speculators badly! Dow must be looking for a mild crash by now!
dodos after reading latest TheStar news on FGV......... expect more worms will expose out from the "hidden palm trees"........
westinee klee, agree with you . This Mangojuice aka Fortunebull is the greatest flip flopper - changes his views on the market, on stocks and even on politics. Talking nonsense everyday so much so that he deletes his posting within a day.
klee westinee,i posted his in case he delete again.