Alex™this counter heavily controlled. i watched the seller keep provoking 1 lot sell down to test water and see got ppl cut loss on TA neckline breaking or not. In the end, also need to do a hammer. haha
28/03/2018 16:56
Alex™btw, the queue below RM1 is pathetic. kesian.
28/03/2018 16:56
Pengyong LooCompany always buy above RM 1.05 how can you queue below RM 1.00 haha
Dufu case study is quite similar with Unimech that i brought 15 years ago.This type of company rich of money,they willing to pay dividend & keep on buy back their share share, at the end the price never move up but keep on droping.i wonder this history will repead again .
31/03/2018 17:58
RocketRiderWhat is the problem at the end after the continuous share buyback? Can share more?
01/04/2018 11:17
Simple manstrong support at 1.055. stay turn for rebound
03/04/2018 12:31
Simple manSingle Tier Final Dividend of 4.5 sen per share.
03/04/2018 12:32
Bluenotesee DUFU still continuously shares buy back these few days. company very aggressively supporting it
04/04/2018 09:04
RJ87as long as they pay 3sen a quarter average, the company will hv given me about 12% return on my money on top of opportunity for capital growth..
PatrickDUFU (forwarded from Mr Tan Peng Lam) Single Tier Final Dividend of 4.5 sen per share for the year ended 31 December 2017. The above Company's securities will be traded and quoted "Ex - Dividend” as from: 25 May 2018
At PE 9, the valuation would range from 1.26 to 1.35
At PE 10 the valuation would range from 1.40 to 1.50.
Thus at 1.13 closing, there is still room for profit.
Based on our engagement with Dufu Management in April 2018, we were guided that shipments would be stronger than FY 2017 and topline would grow in tandem with expected growth in nearline (high capacity) HDD shipments and based on forward orders received from customers. Sales would be exceeding RM200 mil based on outlook of its customers. This is despite RM to USD is 3.9264 compared to 2017 average of 4.1643 (a drop of about 6%) in Q4 2017.
The Co is also upgrading its plant and machineries to cater for new titanium material being used in spacer ring. In FY 2017, Co capex was RM5.3 mil and at 31 Dec 2017 there were RM3 mil capital commitments outstanding. The Co is expecting to spend another RM10 mil capex for expansion in 2018 for CNC machines and factory expansion. The Co is running out of capacity and in process of renting a new factory for expansion of its capacity for both HDD and metal stamping business.
Given Q1 2018 global nearline HDDs shipments increased by 27% compared to Q4 2017 (and when compared to Q1 2017, the increase is 98%) using Seagate and Western Digital Qtr reports, Dufu sales of spacer ring would increase in tandem. I am also guided by another HDD player of the strong sales in in Q1 and Q2 2018.
I tend to project Dufu Q1 FY 2018 volume of shipments would grow in region of 10% to 20% based on discussion with management given the capacity expansion in FY 2017 and FY2018. However, selling price would reduce by 6% given the average Ringgit vs USD Forex rate had dropped from 4.1643 in Q4 2017 to 3.9264 in Q1 2018. For my estimate, I am using Q4 2017 sales of RM50.3 mil as base, I would expect sales to be ranging from RM53.1 mil to RM56.7 mil. The profit before tax would range from RM7.434 mil to RM7.938 mil (assuming PBT is 14% of sales, do not asked me why 14%) compared to Q4 2017 PBT of RM7.1 mil.
Assuming the effective tax rate of 21% (same as FY 2017 but rate could be lower due to the reinvestment allowance of Capex incurred in 2017 and 2018), I project the net profit after tax to be range of RM5.872 mil to RM6.271 mil giving an EPS of 3.5 Sen to 3.77. Extrapolating for the year FY 2018 EPS could range from 14 Sen to 15.08
The above valuation would hold if Co delivered the estimated turnover.
FY 2017 Historical Comment For FY 2017 Dufu reported a PBT of RM 32.8 mil (RM 3 mil more than FY 2016 adjusted PBT of RM29.2). The PBT for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 is RM8.2 mil, RM 9.2 mil, RM8.2 mil and RM 7.1 mil respectively.
Q4 earning is flat though turnover had increased mainly due to the strengthening of USD that had affected its margin
In Q4 2017 Dufu reported a PBT 7.1 Mil and a net profit of RM 6.4 mil with an EPS of 3.9 Sen for Q4 2017 and for the year the net profit is RM26.0 Mil with a EPS of 15.6
Prudently I am giving it a PE 9 to 10 and its valuation would range from RM1.40 to RM1.56 compared to its closing price of RM1.13, a potential gain of 23.9% to 38%
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)5.0% Growth 1.34 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)12.5% Growth 1.97 Relative Valuation 2.69 Graham Formula 1.23 Graham Number 1.7 Net Tangible Asset MA 0.79
Based on isaham fair value of dufu, it should be worth at least 1.97 per share with market cap of RM335million, which is 74% upside.
1) short term downtrend broken 2) long term uptrend still intact 3) support 1.12/1.04/0.95 4) resistance 1.14/1.16/1.2/1.29/1.57/ new high
This counter is different from others as it jumps like a corgi, instead of kangaroo. If you seek for value investing or putting money to a safe counter, this will be a good counter for you. If you are a risk taker or speculator, this counter is not suit for you.
Share Buyback (total number since Dec 2017 till yesterday was 3.259 mil price range 108 to 120)
TOTAL NUMBER OF SHARES IN TREASURY SHARE 12.233 Mil out of the total shares issued of 175.47 mil.
Directors had also bought total of 1.178 mil share from 1.11 to 1.159
The Company has sent a strong statement to the Mr Market that it is not please with its current share price and did substantial share buyback to support share price on the following dates
7 May Purchase 125,000 shares at price range 105 to 108
27 April Purchase 182,000 shares at price range 110 to 114
18 April Purchase 182,000 shares at price range 110 to 114
17 April Purchase 113,000 shares at price range 110 to 113
16 April Purchase 81,000 shares at price range 108 to 112
6 April Purchase 82,000 shares at price range 99 to 102
5 April Purchase 70,000 shares at price range 100 to 100
4 April Purchase 66,000 shares at price range 98 to 100
2 April Purchase 90,000 shares at price range 108 to 108
29 March Purchase 60,000 shares at price range 107 to 107
28 March Purchase 232,000 shares at price range 107 to 108
22 March Purchase 254,000 shares at price range 108 to 112
6 March Purchase 208,200 shares at price range 113 to 118
14 Feb Purchase 287,100 shares at price range 111 to 120
6 Feb Purchase 291,500 shares at price range 110 to 115
5 Feb Purchase 350,000 shares at price range 112 to 120
29 Jan Purchase 116,900 shares at price range 117 to 120
22 Jan Purchase 216,800 shares at price range 116 to 120
Directors buying shares (since 1 March 1.178 mil shares) 8 March Yeoh Beng Hooi bought 30K at about average price of 1.11 7 March Yeoh Beng Hooi bought 30K at about average price of 1.11 5 March Lee Hui Ta bought 671K shares at about average price of 1.159 2 March Lee Hui Ta bought 222K shares at about average price of 1.1578 1 March Wu Mao Yun bought 225K at about average price of 1.153 Sen
21/05/2018 06:55
Investor 9999Q1 Dufu had reported a decent result despite a RM 2 mil forex loss. It reported a PBT of RM7.63 mil and net profit after tax of RM5.76 mil with a EPS of 3.5 Sen.
22/05/2018 17:48
tcs888A good qr indeed.. hopefully tomorrow won't have negative impact on the -ve revenue growth
tcs888Now is good timing.. weaken rm means next qr profit will be improving
17/06/2018 09:43
Kim Yuthis company main reserve of currencies are USD and RMB, in other words the profit of forex gain will increase.. come and collect when volume is low, sell when volume is high
PW888This counter has been on a sell down mode from RM1.50 a year ago. Both the co and directors keeps buying shares to support the price but it still drop by 1/3. The co q results have performed consistently. There must be a reason for the sell down. Anyone?
12/07/2018 07:13
RJ87Market wanna collect cheap before pushing it up?
