Highlights
KLSE: AAX (5238)       AIRASIA X BERHAD Main : Trading&Services
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
0.41   0.00 (0.00%)  0.405 - 0.41  1,187,200
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  39 people like this.
 
radzi In that Ibi_Chan article, it means competition with Arabs airline - Qatar , Emirates and Etihad. The model is working but Arab airlines are heavily subsidized by their government / King.
21/06/2017 08:51
MrPouper hey radzi, TF didn't say Q3 and Q4 would be the best results ever,he said hopefully Q3 and Q4 better than last year, don't con ikan bilis, you are conman ! very bad !
21/06/2017 11:12
Cornerstone will it break RM3?
21/06/2017 11:27
Cornerstone sorry I mean will it break RM0.40?
21/06/2017 11:28
radzi Mr.Pouper : https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/125716.jsp

The above article mention it . To sum it up :

Fernandes went on to say that AAX's financial turnaround is well on its way, noting that "second quarter will complete it".

"The 3rd and 4th quarter will be best ever quarters (for AAX)," he added.
21/06/2017 12:16
radzi This Friday and next week would offer the best short term buying opportunities.
21/06/2017 12:17
MamaCat Am waiting for it to get to 3.90 to enter ^^
21/06/2017 15:35
MamaCat sorry i meant 0.39 to enter LOL
21/06/2017 15:35
Cornerstone faster pls...
21/06/2017 15:36
Max2838 oil is collapsing, tony will wish that he had left room to hedge fuel for the rest of 2017...
21/06/2017 16:37
Ibi_chan They hedge fuel already for the rest 2017?
21/06/2017 17:32
radzi In Jan, they hedge 70% of oil, i think niw they hedge around 40%
21/06/2017 18:31
radzi Most hedged oil is consumed during Jan - June prriod.
21/06/2017 18:32
nigeria2015 whatever happen this is the stock to buy and keep no fast money here.
21/06/2017 20:44
radzi HoldingKing : I am finding time to understand TunePro business first... then only I do the analysis, ok.

I have my reasons to do this way, because statistics or analytics work wonder in data but when the theory is not correct, then thats it. I give you a hypothetical example. Based on 80 politicians in the USA, some researcher collect data on the politician winnable rate (by ratio of votes for divide with total votes) , and data on how much he spent on ice-cream treats on kids.

The data may trend winnable rates increases when his expenditure on ice-cream treat increases. There lie a structural problem here. How could kid vote for a politician when they are underage. So, correlation coefficient and p-value correctly relate wrong inference....Not meaningful to other politician, because he may buy lots of ice-cream to kiddies and then lost the election.

Obviously, you could go around that by understanding the pattern in that politicians donation by correlation ice-cream treat variation to the larger donation fund that the politician give away. Then, a correlation between probability of win with large donation fund is theoretically feasible. So, just be patient so that I can give quality analysis. I have Hari Raya coming, and I have some time weekend let see how much I can do with it.
21/06/2017 23:25
newinvestor17 lol, now going to start promoting TuneProtect
22/06/2017 10:28
radzi stupid newinvestor17. If TunePro is good , no harm I promote. It is good . Low P/E , and high dividend yield. I need to understand why EPS less than DY. Anyway, it is a good company.
22/06/2017 13:08
Dato_Haris Why my PM cousin talk abt MAS not AAX yesterday?
22/06/2017 16:08
Dato_Haris Malaysia Airlines in early talks to buy 35-40 long-range jets
https://www.nst.com.my/node/251181#cxrecs_s
22/06/2017 16:34
apple001 can buy now?
22/06/2017 21:56
HoldingKing Thank You Radzi, wish you have a great Raya Holiday. Selamat Hari Raya :)
22/06/2017 22:02
samsambank Buy Anzo for possible profit 100% in 2 months.
22/06/2017 23:57
newinvestor17 lol panggil orang lain stupid tapi siapa yang predict Q1 punya results salah ? Stupid betul si benggal ni
23/06/2017 13:13
newinvestor17 lol Dato Haris, dont argue with radzi about AAX lol. later he would quote an article where by Tony is buying more Airbusses lol

Radzi, macam si bengal
23/06/2017 13:14
anicca saw the news abt a/ax shaking like a washing machine?
25/06/2017 20:59
aceso Yupp... haizzz as much as i hate it. Wed will see a drop. IBs may drag lower to scare off weak holders. I personally will add more on wed if it does. However, thread carefully. It depends on the nature of the fault. If the fault lies with aax then aust aviation may suspend us again. But if its with airbus. Nothing should happen like china airlines burst a330 engine. Early reports stated shattered blade. Usually those are manufacturer related. Unlikely it will harm aax reputation. Blade maintenance engine are straightforward unless aax took shortcuts then we wil see a bigger issue. Good news we have monday and tues lol. Aussie aviation authority is quite fast in investigation. Remember the qantas a380.. they knew the problem kinda early but needed further confirmation before they released an official statement
25/06/2017 23:14
aceso A330 is used commonly worldwide and airbus would sent their team to dig in as well. At the current point i will be more worried for airbus.
25/06/2017 23:16
radzi We know some macro trend is coming. Fed would increase interest rates. End of 2017 would see rate at 1.4% and 2018 would see rate at around 2.4% and 2019 would see rate at 3.0% .

Oil price - we might see a drop to between USD 30 - 40 per barrel by 2019. The opposite effect , would be on RM , which would depreciate, unless Bank Negara increases interest rates as well to stabilise RM. Najib with his baggage problem needs to go , fund will withdraw money as and more when news come out from DOJ.

Higher interest rate would becoming in Malaysia within next few years. Cost of fund increases and price needs to drop. Housing bubbles. Commodities price will tag along oil price crash. Thats look great for industrial and bad for agriculture. Bank will need to re-adjust. Non-performing loan will increase. Bad for property.

ASB investors by loan would sell back their loan to cover up with cost of fund increase. Well, I predict a doom. There is where we stand a chance to make some great money. Need to refine this analysis.

AAX and Airasia would survive.
26/06/2017 00:07
Dato_Haris Technical issue sees AirAsia X flight shaking like washing machine
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/252029/technical-issue-sees-airasia-x-flight-shaking-washing-machine
26/06/2017 10:01
Dato_Haris Airplane shake like washing machine? Safe to travel?
26/06/2017 10:02
degiyy test
26/06/2017 10:04
radzi I am more afraid of 1MDB issue than airplane shaking. 1MDB issue had the potential to drop the whole Bursa down. Airplane shaking affect only one counter.
26/06/2017 10:43
chinaman Radzi should be a lawyer, defend hard the indefensible. long haul low cost model is unsubstainable.
26/06/2017 11:46
radzi Hi Chinaman : Believe me , American Airlines are doing something about long haul business model, and companies like Emirates, Qatar Airways, Saudi Airline, and Etihadwill be having a hard time to do business in USA or may be banned from doing business in America. Their spoke-person is Warren Buffet and their regulator is American government.

Then AAX direction will not be Europe but America.
26/06/2017 12:31
radzi Chinaman : By the way, you should call me Dr. Radzi. I am not a lawyer and my strength is almost the same as Dr. Michael Burry - contradictory pattern recognition. You can call me Bengal, KNNCCB or anything. I am immune to that, as long as I make money in long term. The place where I came from, we greet each other as "Celaka" to mean - "Long Time No See". So, whenever I call someone stupid, he should feel honored to get that intimate gestures from me, if he learn anything. By the way, Dr. Michael Burry patience is longer than mine. His long term is "2-4 years". My long term is 6-12 months. Of course his long patience reward him with 489% of return. Mine, much less than that.
26/06/2017 12:44
chinaman waloe... be an asian champion still not enough? wanna fight with american airlines giant with long haul to US. sure boh wan win kui lo america? wakaka.
26/06/2017 14:31
stockmanmy long haul low cost model WAS unsubstainable.
and AAX intends to change that, AAX shareholders will all be very happy shareholders.

chinaman > Jun 26, 2017 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

Radzi should be a lawyer, defend hard the indefensible. long haul low cost model is unsubstainable.
26/06/2017 14:44
stockmanmy in industry after industry, company after company...Asian champions will continue to eat up their American champions for lunch.




chinaman > Jun 26, 2017 02:31 PM | Report Abuse

waloe... be an asian champion still not enough? wanna fight with american airlines giant with long haul to US. sure boh wan win kui lo america? wakaka.
26/06/2017 14:46
aceso Wed prepare to break your piggie banks!!! Gonna be a good firesale lol. Gonna dive more.... anyways.. update on aust incident, ATSB and rolls royce are investigating the incident. Aircraft maintenance will be analyzed and checked for compliance. Based on current AAX practice which they had IATA operational safety audit lol... i foresee unlikely they will make any error as these are voluntary SOPs to prove to public their safety responsibility. If there is an error, is like shooting his feet with a glock
26/06/2017 18:32
aceso The press and media are really grilling aax reputation on this haizzz... bringing up past history...
26/06/2017 18:34
radzi Crude oil price is just like a house with weak foundations.

The reason why oil price hovered around USD 50 - 55 the past 6 months is because companies such as airlines companies hedged into the futures. They are afraid the effect of OPEC cartel on oil production/price will increase the price in the future.

OPEC curtailment agreement is renewed till March 2018 and Qatar was isolated by Arabs states to stimulate trade embargo on Qatar, but this time around oil price dropped,, yes it dropped, meaning that companies had sufficiently hedged and does not hedge more in the future, thus the artificial high oil price foundation is broken.

Imagine high storey condominium with weak pillars, and you pull the pillar one by one, what will happen ? The whole condominium falls down to the floor.

Let me put a proposition of the most likely scenario, 6-12 months ahead , a few events will happen. (1) OPEC production cut agreement will lapse. (2) Interest rates keep on going up, (3) Non-OPEC production keep on increasing.

If OPEC members do not believe in production cut anymore , everyone will start to produce to the maximum economically viable production.

KABOOMMMMM. A crash is expected.
26/06/2017 23:37
Alex Foo after reading coverage on aax's recent incidence, it got me thinking soberly. I have no doubt on AAX's ability to deliver and create value for mankind. Without AAX I think Malaysians will need to fly expensive flights overseas.

I hope AAX's investors will brace themselves and keep in faith in the language of investment. We are also dealing with life and death on passengers who put their trust in the airline, the aircraft components, and everything necessary to ensure a safe flight.
27/06/2017 15:26
acceso 2morow panic selling, below 0.30 soon
27/06/2017 21:39
acceso AirAsia so unsafe and so many incidents, sell b4 too late
27/06/2017 21:43
OrangKuat Radii, dun forger that ringgit Malaysia will be affected by oil price as well. With low myr to usd rate. Aax will need suffer from high maintenance fees and debt also in isd
27/06/2017 22:12
radzi In 1980s , USD exchange rate was 2.50 when oil price was USD 20 per barrel. No, wont impact by oil price but would be impacted by Fed rates. Bank Negara will stabilise exchange rate by increasing domestic rate.

There are several weaknesses in certain countries. In China, corporate debt to GDP ratio is more than 200%. Any rate increase by US may affect China rate increase. Bankruptcy cases will rise. Not only , commodity price will fall but also financial stress in China is anticipated.

I hope a soft landing in China .
27/06/2017 22:26
Ibi_chan That incident sounds scary. Do they over cut cost on the maintenance?
28/06/2017 01:09
Ibi_chan Safety is the main priority. Shud maintain the aircraft properly!
28/06/2017 01:13
pussycats Ibi_chan →That incident sounds scary. Do they over cut cost on the maintenance?
28/06/2017 01:09

Ibi_chan →Safety is the main priority. Shud maintain the aircraft properly!
28/06/2017 01:13

pussycats → That why price of aax will tumble bcos we don't know about aax maintenance record, good or not?
28/06/2017 07:47
pussycats radzi→ We know some macro trend is coming. Fed would increase interest rates. End of 2017 would see rate at 1.4% and 2018 would see rate at around 2.4% and 2019 would see rate at 3.0% .

Oil price - we might see a drop to between USD 30 - 40 per barrel by 2019. The opposite effect , would be on RM , which would depreciate, unless Bank Negara increases interest rates as well to stabilise RM. Najib with his baggage problem needs to go , fund will withdraw money as and more when news come out from DOJ.

Higher interest rate would becoming in Malaysia within next few years. Cost of fund increases and price needs to drop. Housing bubbles. Commodities price will tag along oil price crash. Thats look great for industrial and bad for agriculture. Bank will need to re-adjust. Non-performing loan will increase. Bad for property.

ASB investors by loan would sell back their loan to cover up with cost of fund increase. Well, I predict a doom. There is where we stand a chance to make some great money. Need to refine this analysis.

AAX and Airasia would survive.
26/06/2017 00:07




pussycats→ wow Radzi , you are good in scenario. Remember to update us here about macro analysis. Radzi good job.
28/06/2017 07:51