KUALA LUMPUR: A poll of voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu has shown that the battle for the Selangor state seat will go right down to the wire in a two-horse race.

Independent research centre Ilham Centre, however, believes that Pakatan Harapan has a slight advantage over Perikatan Nasional, with component party DAP retaining the seat for the unity government.

It said it would be difficult for the candidate from Parti Rakyat Malaysia and the independent candidate to mount serious challenges to PH and PN.

The centre, in a statement, said one of the main factors which will determine the outcome of tomorrow's polls will be the percentage of voters who cast their ballots.

"In the Selangor state election in August 2023, despite the hot campaign period and a livelier atmosphere, only 69.25 per cent of voters cast their ballots. This shows that it was a huge challenge for party election machineries to persuade and encourage voters to fulfil their responsibilities (by voting).

"Obviously, all of their work is so that there will be at least the same percentage of voters casting their ballots, if not more.

"However, the survey shows that this by-election may see a lower voter turnout as many who live elsewhere (but are registered voters in Kuala Kubu Baru) are not returning. The weather on polling day may also be a factor in determining voter turnout.

"In other words, the voter turnout will more likely depend on those who actually reside in the constituency.

"Therefore, the focus for analysing which party has the advantage was more towards the voter turnout by race and by district voting centres."

This, said Ilham Centre, made politics by locality in Kuala Kubu Baru, very important.

"In this context, looking at DAP's record in each district voting centre which has been relatively consistent since the 13th General Election (in 2013) when it won the seat for the first time, would indicate that the party has a slight advantage.

"Added to this is the fact that both the state and federal governments are led by PH, and this in turn increases the burden the opposition has to bear in trying to prevent DAP from retaining the seat."

Ilham Centre said PN's insistence on using race and religion in its campaigning was also a factor which was detrimental to the opposition's hopes.

"In this by-election, this issue has become a saturated one and it has reached its limit. In mixed areas like Kuala Kubu Baharu, a hardline campaign is not effective nor suitable.

Ilham Centre also found that Pas, a PN component party, had not mobilised its election machinery to the fullest in support of Bersatu candidate Khairul Azhari Saut, despite being the backbone of PN by virtue of being the strongest party.

"This time, we don't see Pas election machinery from other states other than Selangor. Even Selangor Pas doesn't seem to be aggressive in its approach.

"The performances of the other three (PN) elected representatives (in the Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency), namely the member of parliament, the Hulu Bernam assemblyman and the Batang Kali assemblyman, have been a matter of debate.

"The issue of PN elected representatives who don't 'perform' has been a much talked-about topic among voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu."

In contrast, the Barisan Nasional election machinery, especially that of Umno, in support of their unity government partners, has found its rhythm and is performing better than the state election last year.

"Some of the Umno members who protested in the previous (state) election have accepted the fact that Umno is now working with PH. The biggest factor here is that they won't have any advantages by working with the opposition.

The survey conducted by Ilham Centre involved 404 respondents from various segments of society, including race, gender, age and localities.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2024/05/1048896/kkb-election-research-centre-expects-close-fight-ph-holds-slight