With no further light shed on 1Mdb, wait for more development.

Today 2 out of 3 of the questions I am looking for has been answered but left the most ruthless one - 1Mdb. On its own it doesn't create much problem but defaulting further without a solution will bring in the rating agencies because they don't want to be blame for giving a more positive outlook earlier.

Feds will keep rate unchanged. 2/3 already. Left 1Mdb. If oil continues it momentum pass USD 45 at this point on left 1Mdb to affect the forex. If 1Mdb pays off (i don't know it its that straight forward after defaulting since Dec 2015) the course towards anticipation of 3.70 will follow.

Market will not jump the gun as yet but I am sure the market is relieve that the New Governor provides a continuity and is not someone from MOF to ensure the check and balance is maintained

Just named Muhammad Ibrahim as New Bank Negara Governor should be good news as he is the Deputy to Zeti and should be a good lineage and in keeping the on going endeavour. So one down and 2 to go.

Some of the things i have shared prior
1. Phenom - Oil weakening (for 1 week) on to > 7% decline with MYR strengthening, and DJIA up trending which happen 2-3 weeks ago. BUY call
2. DJIA Correction - (1.5-2 weeks ago) - SELL
3. Anticipation of USD45/barrel crude oil and MYR3.70 (last week) - BUY
4. Sell following the rules of 3 days, 10-15% on leap, etc - WAIT for more sign

The above situation is why I am doing trading than investment. Moving forward is tricky now that oil is looking at half a leg already passing USD45/per barrel. In our market anticipation moves the transaction. The USD mark is a psychological barrier for MYR strengthening further as mention to 3.7. Because the oil movement will be followed by USD and as a defence to USD the MYR will weaken or strengthen. So in this case, the oil move must be convincing. In my opinion it looks convincing at least for the next 1 week.

Realistically once it passes USD 45 convincingly then all anticipation will move to MYR to strengthen to 3.70 as USD likely to weaken due to above plus the Feds deliberation in the coming days.

Rightfully, MYR should strengthen!

I would not make any move as yet with the reason of the current happenings in Malaysia. Wait for the 1Mdb debacle on default, wait for Sarawak situation to be clearer and wait for Bank Negara Governor to be announced.

WHY?

Because the 1Mdb may determine how the money flows again fr both Malaysia and foreign investor, while Sarawak situation will give indication of Najib's position and the Bank Negara Governor selection may determine the confidence in moving forward for our currency and bigger part whether the OPR rates will stay.
What to look out for?
Look out for news if the candidate is Bank Negara/Zeti's choice or outside her influence. If outside her influence expect reaction from market.

Red_Hong_Bao, good call.

How is the global money going to flow between this point till June
If break it down
1. Not many want to trade GBR at this point causing the exchange for the currency to weaken until they are clear of the stance of Brexit. No simple answer as there are up to half a million EU trustees moving in and out of UK causing more damage yearly utilizing taxpayers monies and benefit. Weighing on this monies will continue to flow out. Only 2destination, Asia or US as the Brits are too familiar with the Euro challenges at this point. Not only influx of refugees in Europe causing much concern that supporting human rights and humanitarian will soon kill Europe's economy. If they are still not convince on Paris and Brussels attack a few more terrorist act will definitely convince them. My personal opinion is UK should leave the EU for the reason stated above and the fact that EU has also lost 50% of their trade strength in the few many years earlier.
2. Import to US generally has slowed down as we have read As I wriote before that most if not all forex are referenced to USD. This means when we say example MYR has weaken against the USD what we really mean is USD has been traded more and hence they strengthen and when that's happens MYR will be referenced as weaken. At this point, US has played almost every card they have, include devaluing their currency to strengthen their export to reducing imports to consolidate their standing (basically a correction mode) to deliberating their interest rates hike ...... The latter is perceived as a delay tactic and the idea is to balance the stock market because there are many variable from ECB and Japan's negative interest rate which when coincide together must put US in a controlled environment. Example if US devalues the USD and have a rate hike and similarly ECB and Japan does the same, the export numbers will not happen for US and it will deficit the purpose of doing so
3. The Bill to reveal 9/11 if passed in US may have the Bond market spiraling downwards. The Saudis have large bonds term assets which total USD750B which may be pulled out if US declassify the secrecy. So now we know who is behind 9/11??? :) those money entrusted in bonds or other asset IF pulled out from US again very unlikely will end up in Europe right?
4. Oil's fallen prices last year and to date has taken a large toll on Middle East , Russia and US. How do we know? because the Saudis are now taking loans while Russia is taking on Syria directly and more engage in aggressive stance to compensate for their losses in oil while US is trying to improve their relations with the Saudis to avoid No3. Real?? Yes!!
ISIS is also at its weakest now because of prolonged oil losses.

So now for the question:
1. Once you have read the above, Brexit may seem more straight forward. It is a choice of long term rewards and short term pain if they exit or take the easy way by remaining in a degrading EU economy. My guess is further fueled by Obama's recent advice for UK to remain in EU. This is because it is easier to manage EU as a whole than having to deal with splinter groups. UK made a calculated choice when they avoided joining Eurozone however Eurozone is a subset of EU since 18 member states in Eurozone are part of the 29 member states of EU. UK being out of EU means they are neither part of EU or Europe already. Before if ECB is to Europe and Feds is to US where does that leave UK??

2. US is a failing state in my opinion. Why? Firstly the business model of the world is changing. If it use to be service is to India and manufacturing is to China in the last decade, today the model is all so complex for US. Every body is buying into everyone else's business to spread their egg from being in a single basket. Part of globalization? If it is many like Saudis and China are holding plenty of American eggs. In the business world when you are a customer and also a supplier to the same company, you are automatically a Business Partner. Yesteryears we talk about allies among countries but today (akin to business partner) they are stakeholders and partners. Can US really afford for China or Saudi to fail? Can they afford for UK to exit EU and lose another stakeholder ?

If the above still does not convince you that more money will flow into Asia between now till June, the only other way is status quo which we know will not happen because if money does not move USD will weaken in the way US is not in control

ADC888, as you can see many of the fundamentally good stocks are moving already even export stock as I mention earlier when the USD45 /barrel psychological barrier and expectation of forex 3.70 against USD becomes more real and I will sell when my rules are fulfilled

While we are looking at what constitute to WILL to succeed
Malaysia against Singapore

Size: Malaysia is approx 473 times larger than Singapore
Population: Malaysia is approx 5.4 time more than Singapore
GDP per Capita: Singapore is approx 3.4 times more than Malaysia

What it tells us is Singapore's model is 3.4 times more effective than Malaysia while the population tells us Singapore is 5.4 more efficient than Malaysia. The size tells us development and resource opportunity that Malaysia has above Singapore.
All this 50+ years we did not capitalise on the 473 times advantage.

Why?

I believe is back to the 3 items mentioned....
1. Absence of Corruptiom
2. Meritocracy
3. Fair and Level Playing field for everyone (Malaysian)

Hong Kong govt and corporate was reformed by icac. Malaysia need a very strong leader to hv the political will to make the changes

Malaysia hasn't reach it maximum capacity yet. With the current situation, the politic, the crude oil, Cpo etc hope Malaysia is ready to be redefined.
To be redefined should include political reforms, talent retention, secular for rule of law to take precedence. Leakages can be control after political reform and secularism is practice.
Hong Kong retail scene was redefined by SARS. Remember ?
Malaysia can happen too. Most of Singapore talents are Malaysian after all.

If you hv read my earlier write up in Battle Royale, one of the tool to prop confidence is by using the market. Whether it is planned or not by the PM it seemed to hv coincided with the Sarawak election and the whole deal of bond selling and take up by the Chinese was also too convenient to ignore.
My personal take is , the Chinese has been buying key assets in Malaysia and they know the debt can contra or settled with more deals.

Yesterday participation in first half and second half was good. This morning the ungraded is at 854. If it moves towards 700 or below like yesterday before 1st trading session, it will be considered good. When you have more participation, the consensus of the KLCI will be accurate and you can trade with more confidence.

As what I hv written as oil approaches USD45 per barrel, the consensus in Malaysia will be expecting 3.70 exchange against USD to be met. Whether met or not, the expectation is likely it will and KLCI market will move in that direction. Foreign investor may look upon the strengthening of MYR to buy now and throw at 3.70 exchange.

From our perspective, it may work to their advantage when we sell now due to weakness in export stock. So look out of this buying by the foreign investor. How? as mentioned earlier high volume of take up at low buy rate. Note: They may not present themselves in the buy queue but the volume will be high.

For those who ask me about export counter when ringgit strengthens -
Answer: You hv to remember export theme is local consumption only. Sector play is also local theme. They are prevalent when the foreign investors are not present. For foreign investors they do not understand our theme play simply because the system they use to filter is base on factual value, potential and past 2 Quarter growth.

For those looking at export stock, my advice is look at the volume and buy rate. If buy rate is very low for the export counter you are looking at but the volume is very high say 2 to 3 times higher than AVERAGE HIGH. The translation is low buy rate from previous day of high buy rate could mean correction however low buy rate from say 50% buy rate from previous day is likely panic selling.

I am more convince of correction if the buy rate is high for few days followed very low buy rate to support the correction theory. 1 day high buy rate followed by correction is very unlikely to be correction. A lot of export stock had 1 day high buy rate on Monday but immediate yesterday the buy rate dropped.

Do you think is correction or panic selling? If you believe like me on the theory above that panic selling ensued due to strengthening of MYR (then also read my comment yesterday at 8.59am)

If what its said is true that yesterday was panic selling then one must look at the volume because if the volume is high, there is a buyer. If you have high panic sellers but not buyer the price will drop significantly because of low volume at each level of buy queue.

So what does it mean if buy rate is low with significant volume transacted (double or triple the AVG HIGH volume)? It means someone is buying. As I have mentioned the export theme is only local to us, for those with panic selling (low buy rate), at higher than AVG HIGH volume, maybe a sign of buy up by foreign investors. So far as shared the foreign investors are taking up in quarter similar amt of investment seen by quarter against the pull out last year.

Hope this explains

Oil is not only stable but gaining ground. This means ringgit will strengthen further. Once it strengthen and if it strengthens to 3.70 many foreign investors will sell then. But between now till 3.70 watch the oil potential to go up. If oil gap to 45 with momentum, expect the heavy buy in between then.

What else do we need?
1. Last year we had outflow of foreign investment totalling RM19.5Billion. if divided by 4Q each Q is RM5Bil. The 1st Q this year reported RM5.5Bil already.
2. Bond market registered RM11.8 in 1st Q (Jan -Mar this year) while the lost of whole of 2015 in bond pull out was RM11.1Bil. We are on a move for bond. this has not factored in the China 8%. Question here is are we selling more asset that China is in a know?
3 The rest as mentioned in the writeup

If someone buys up your debt knowing that the debt restructure will work, knowing that they can buy assets that you dispose to settle debt at a price (lower or higher than market price) but is cheap to the foreign buyer due to the exchange rate. What this means in addition to point 1-3 is the spill over will again be into equity and secondly upon optimise of bond, the money will go to equity.

Risk? Opposition political party spoiling the deal

A quick check at BPAM and MGS on bonds as follow. Having heard this morning on BFM that China has taken up 8% of our bond as they did in a few other country. It is either they have a hand in the restructuring of our debt being buyers of some of the asset (which is a fact) or they trust the Goverment or both. This will be handy if both our debt is reduce and GDP improved would be ideal case

"Malaysia Government Bond 10Y increased to 3.82 percent on Thursday April 7 from 3.81 percent in the previous trading day. Historically, the Malaysia Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 5.35 in April of 2004 and a record low of 2.87 in January of 2009."

Some of the Brexit money is already in Asia and Malaysia. The decline of the GBP last year started since Sept 2015 to date at 5.53 against MYR stems from the out flow due to the concern. To be exact 17% decline.

One more chance for Malaysia to hedge b4 price of crude oil moves up with the latest Kuwait announcement to limit output ahead of Doha meet. If they limit and price of oil goes up, Iran will benefit as they don't agree to limit the output. This is a catch22 for all those OPEC and non OPEC that is limiting the supply going into the meet.
For layman, we should hedge by buying foreign currency in phases as we are not in the know of the outcome. Oil price down ringgit will weaken. If it stays above usd35 many believe/hope it will sustain the northbound trend but below 35, that faith will fall following the trend below 35.

Get ready to embrace when oil goes below USD35. There maybe a gap down

We should all note that though I write MYR weakening or strengthening, it is actually reference to USD weakening or strengthening. This is because MYR never led the forex and only USD is the ref.

Sequence of event if DJIA corrects this few days with oil sliding past 10%.....MYR will weaken with USD strengthening. The signs of USD strengthening did not show in past week but should now be seen if oil continues to drop

Oil has slide 7% since last week but DJIA performance continue moving north on positive manufacturing data and better employment numbers. I am expecting a correction soon on DJIA since first quarter has completed with all the feel good news.

Not according to our PM

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/01/21/clearing-the-air-treasury-sec-gen-malaysia-net-importer-of-crude-oil-petroleum-products-since-2014/

Oil is down and ahead of Doha meet, is Malaysia getting the best deal at the moment with ringgit strengthening and oil price dropping? Malaysia is nett importer of oil while ringgit strengthens maybe an opportunity to hedge. Hedge ringgit, hedge the oil!
If so what do you think will happen? My opinion is this window maybe very short for this to happen(i.e. Oil down and ringgit strengthening)

Nice start...

After I moved to Hong Kong, I sort of became Kuan Yew's second port of call. Run Run Shaw was No. 1, my wife Pauline and I, No. 2.

He liked Pauline and found her simple and earthy ways agreeable.

He and Geok Choo would often come over for dinner.

I would get a caterer and offer good food. I would get instructions, of course, that he could not eat this or that.

The conversation would be light with interesting anecdotes, and I would like to believe they had pleasant evenings dining at our home.

Kuan Yew and I seldom engaged in super-warm or super-friendly talk. But some time in 2007 or 2008, he said a very funny thing that touched my heart.

We were walking down from his hotel to the car to go to dinner.

Pauline was with Geok Choo in front. He turned to me and said: "Come to think of it, finally, it's only friendship that matters."

In other words, everything is gone but the only thing left is friendship. I thought, "My God! I am seeing the human side of him!"



On their last few visits to Hong Kong, Kuan Yew became increasingly warm towards me.

He and Geok Choo would stay in our hotel. She was already unwell and, because of her vision problem, we pasted coloured paper on the walls of their room so that she wouldn't bump into them.

A few years later, I found myself walking with Kuan Yew to make sure he wouldn't bump into the corridor walls.

Kuan Yew visited me a few times after Geok Choo passed away in October 2010. One thing about him I would say is that he stayed true to one woman his whole life, and that is quite remarkable for a man of those times.

He led an exemplary life, a disciplined life. He never womanised or drank to excess. He smoked for a short time, but that was it.

MR LEE AND HIS LEGACY

In 2010, he wrote me a letter asking for my candid views.

He wanted to know why he always found Hong Kong full of business activity and people with strong enterprising spirit.

Whenever he visited Hong Kong, he always asked to be taken to some government unit or a home industry, where something new was always being invented, and he would be totally amazed by what he saw.

He asked me to write to him and tell him my views frankly.



So I called up my niece Kay and asked if I should talk so straight that I hit him in the solar plexus.

She said it sounded like that was what he wanted.

So I wrote back to him and told him that he had straitjacketed too many of his people in his zeal and impatience to build up Singapore quickly.

There was genius in them, but they could not move.

I told him to take a pair of scissors and cut them loose.

Kuan Yew had a super gung-ho style. He was like such a powerful elephant that when he stomped on the ground, all the plants were crushed. But in so doing, he created the miracle called Singapore.

Also, because of his great zeal and dedication, Singapore was his obsession, and his attitude and behaviour flowed from that: You harm Singapore, I smash you.

My assessment of Singapore as an outsider is that no one could have achieved what Lee Kuan Yew had achieved for Singapore and for the people of Singapore.

Singapore, compared with China, is like a drop of water to a bucket of water.

But that does not mean the drop of water is not important.



- Asiaone

Heard this on BFM......avg Bear Market is 10month......but avg Bull market is 3 yrs. Wonder what yardstick they use to measure bullish? SMA 200?

Faith, if we look at future and education plays key vital role in developing new potential and ability of keeping standards high Singapore is listed 26 in Global and no 1 in this part of the world. That should give us an idea of the next 10-20 years for their full contribution

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/world-university-rankings-2015-2016-results-announced

Yes, the problem is we don't have real skills and our education level in public school is poor and will produce next generation of unsure graduates

This where the curve ball is coming! KLCI went above 1700 and a due consolidation is to happen. I personally would like it to consolidate lower rather than higher. Lower would mean closer to 1665 and higher would mean 169X. Lower allows more stability and to stay above the 1665 if any volatility next week.

Jake, overall I believe VS is a good company with many potential. At this moment due to strengthening of ringgit, there are concern however to me it is a buying opportunity.. To know how it will fair today, have a look at gainer vs loser. Gainer to lead loser with ratio 62% and above would be good indicator with optimum participation, Untraded by lunch less that 650 should be healthy.

Maomum, I believe yesterday's slump for some exports stocks should have been factored in. Any further drop on those should be collection opportunity for those good FA stocks. As for KLCI, use the gainer loser to gauge.

Now that you are familiar with the methods, this should cut your exposure by further 30%.

Market at 1700 and many panic selling in line with the streghthening of ringgit for export stocks.

Queue RM1 KLCI will weaken

Passing 1692 is a good break. I am expecting it to pass 1700 as share above however the Gainer vs Loser must pass the 56% mark to at least 62%. If that happens, the break above 1700 is stronger.

The volume of each buyer is very indiscriminate. I don't think its manufactured

The sellers to 1.25 buyers are not even those in the 1.26 seller queue.

My contrarion view,
1. There is a 400k seller at 1.26. It is very dangerous for someone to try to herd the buyer to 1.26 by queuing at 1.25 with 1Million share. Moreover there are 70 buyers. It can be manufacture only if they are alternate buyers. Even so there are 35 buyers if its true.

2. 1M Selle at 1.25r vs 400k buyers at 1.26 is a ratio of 40% buys to seller. If all the seller decides to sell the buyer will be further saddled if their intent is to herd other buyers to1.26

3. I believe they (1.25 buyers) are taking chance since Gainers are leading the loser again and KLCI is moving further up. Moreover I believe they are individual and not alternate queue buyer

4. How to see? Wait until KLCI drop and if the 1.25 buyers pull out, you got your reason

NewbieNew, I like Hevea for the reason the recent EPS 2015 is more than double that of 2014. You may argue the forex kicked in for 2015 vs 2014 as the reason however the previous quarter of 2015 also show very positive growth. (ref to link)
At the moment I would advice you to buy the warrant as it is taking que from the mother (so you can anticipate ahead the price you want to buy) plus its gearing is higher if you match the movement of the two. Because I don't chase stock, If I queue I will queue at RM1 (below 1.11 and 1.04 support).

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=H&securityCode=5095

The rule of 10-15% in single leap is illustrated in both the scenario is a MUST follow if you want to make the round. The range of 10-15% is because no one can predict the lowest to buy however you can approximate.

Congrats to those who bought as suggested above. If you have it would be second round profit. The first round it went down to 1.85 went back to 2.05 and the second was yesterday went down to 1.67 and back to 1.91
The 24% drop with the results already out together with the 2 support breach was enough to convince many traders to come in.

For those looking at the points I have listed and still wonder why some of the counters fall after the results are out....majority are following the rules. Those exceptional like Geshen (I normally don't like to list names of counter- however for purpose of my point)
Geshen has fulfilled most of my points except the opportunity to buy in earlier. As a trader I look at opportunities while I don't chase a running counter. I have expected Geshen to drop when the results came out looking at previous trending however did not expect a free fall. The low of the day fell below the support 1.87/1.88.
I have picked up some as it broke thru 2 support.
If you look at the 2 closing 2.55 and 2.05 (25 and 26 Feb respectively) it is a massive 24% drop and for those who observe the 2 support would have gotten a bigger margin if bought esp between 1.85 to 1.88 level.
As a trader I will buy if drop again today to the same level and sell 10-15% above that.

Hakchai, I was away and also becoz loser gained pace I didn't bother to follow. Anyway come Monday observer the gainer vs loser vs untraded to give you direction. You can ref to my blog for indicators

The other reason is losers are outpacing gainers. so wait for better timing first

Hak Chai, At the moment the indicators are not real. High butyrate at low volume. Can be manufactured! the floor looks like 86cents. Hold first because sell queue volume is very very low. This means if there is a run up, it can easily go up 92.5 but without support. If you are not worried about few cents, it can be a bet.
If you are, wait for more sell queue volume to determine. Without the sell queue volume, the run up in price will be fast and the drop will also be equally fast giving the impression of fluctuation (unstable, concern etc) and no take meaning take up and may drop further after.

Pohuat sitting at support. Break 1.76 we may see more movement.

Surprisingly among all my posting, this subject got the most hit rate. Infact it got almost 3000 hits on the first 2 hours when I posted it. So i believe there is a real concern of a market crash. As I am not GOD it will be irresponsible of me to say that however from a factual side, it is unlikely. There are only 3 scenarios
1. Market Crash
2. Market Bearish
3. Market Bullish

If 1 is unlikely, it is left with 2 and 3. Statistically, it is easier to make money in a bearish market (as long as doesn't crash) like we are now though bullish market provides more security. In bearish situation when market pullback (which is frequent because nett moving backward is more than forward) most of the time the shares drop more drastically for the reason esp prolong period of index dropping or sideway. Normally a good strategy would be to buy 2 support below. Never try to play breakout during prolong periods of downside because odds will be stack against you. Breakout to many TA experts means buying signal. However you need to understand breakout from a layman answer. Most breakout don't happen in single attempt hence you have cup, sauce, handle in chart trend etc to help you distinguish the higher possibilities.

From a layman, what it means is at the breakout point, buyer volume MUST overwhelm seller volume. In my previous post, I hv mentioned that syndicates will not touch a counter at the point where buyer volume overwhelms sellers at seller price because there is no chance for them to collect or queue lower. So to see if a breakout can sustain, look at the willingness of buyer to commit a buy at each of the seller price.

Eg. Buyer willing to buy 100k volume at each transaction of seller price. If seller queues at say RM1.53 (and 1.53 being breakout) buyer takes up and moves to next price and the next. Buyrate is very high at this point. Here note the resistance level after breakout. If it looks likely that the buyer take-up rate to pass resistance, buy at that point because if it passes the support after the breakout, use the 10-15% rule to help you decide the sell. Its very likely to happen. If break 10-15% after you buy, you must sells because the commitment was breaking thru the breakout price and not the next support and other trader know this.

for those business gaining from forex, we are seeing enormous hike in eps and earnings in general. With such hike, these company will be quick to disburse the increase in margin of earning and quickest thru dividend to avoid tax. I believe pohuat will be in limelight tomorrow after others in same sector hv performed in their results. Good luck