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[12Invest] - 我要投资

Author: 12investpublic   |   Latest post: Mon, 30 Mar 2020, 8:41 AM

 

[12Invest] - 我要投资 - 捞底吗?AirAsia 跌破RM 1.20 了!

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AirAsia 跌破RM 1.20 了!!

 

今天市场上最 “红“ 的,肯定是红飞机莫属了,人家讲屋漏偏逢连夜雨,船迟又遇打头风~这句话,给现在的AirAsia 最适合不过!

 

所以今天,我们就要研究一下是不是应该进去捞底!还是应该先站在一边看!但是,在那之前,我们先看看各大投行的TP 是多少吧!

 

AmInvestment Bank:Fair Value RM 1.400(SELL)

 

Kenanga Investment Bank:Price Target RM 1.330(HOLD)

 

Public Bank:Price Call RM 1.210(TRADING SELL)

 

综合上面我们看到最新的TP,平均起来是 ~ RM 1.31,那么现在股价是RM 1.14(在版主写的时候),不就是undervalued 了咯~

嘿,如果投资这样简单的话,就人人都赚钱了!对于我来说,投行的TP 是很有用的,可以当成reference price,以及他们给予reference price 的理由都值得我们去研究!

 

但是,绝不是盲目跟着TP 买入!!

 

好吧,看完了reference price后,我们要看公司这两个月到底发生了什么事,为什么会从RM 1.68 左右下跌到现在的 RM 1.14 呢?

 

原因 #1 – Novel Coronavirus(武汉病毒)

 

身为马来西亚旅游业概念股,原本 2020 身为旅游年AirAsia 是会受惠的,哪里知道年头杀出一个武汉病毒~而且更要命的是病毒来自中国,影响之大… Erm,我们下个季度应该就能看到了!

 

但是,如果你看回过往AirAsia 的股价走势,尤其是在2003 年SARS 病毒发生,2009 年的H1N1,2014 的Ebola 病毒,以及 2016 年的Zika病毒,公司的股价依然稳健!(等下我会附上 Aminvestment Bank 找到的相关图片,大家可以看看)

 

当然,这是因为这两种病毒对于本地以及周边国家影响没那么大, nCoV 的话是直接影响他们生意的,如果你到泰国的Don Mueang 机场看的话,你会看到很多中国人等着坐AirAsia 的班机!

 

红飞机目前持有 45% 的Thailand AirAsia(TAA)有30% 的航线都是跑中国的,Malaysia AirAsia(MAA)本身则是有 5% 跑这个航线

另外,公司本身是AAX 的大股东,而AAX有 25% - 30% 的航班是去中国的,很肯定的是,两家公司的盈利都会受到影响!

 

原因#2 – Airbus 贿赂事件

 

无论这件事情是真是假都好 在两位老板 a.k.a Top Executives 的名字之下,2012 年 – 2014 年确实持有过Caterham F1 车队,并且在期间收到来自Airbus 的 “sponsor”,高达 RM 204 Million,现在被发现了,投资者怎么能不怕呢?

 

有些读者可能不了解,他们涉嫌受贿买Airbus 有问题咩?公司还是很赚钱啊!对,公司选择Airbus 的确比选择 Boeing 更好,你看 Boeing 近期也是惨事不断(难道 2020 年不利航空业?)

 

Airbus 的性能确实更适合AirAsia,不过如果他们真的有收贿赂,当时是Boeing 贿赂他们的话,他们买的会是谁的飞机呢?买了后出事怎么办呢?我真的不敢想象 

 

*P/S:更多Airbus 事件的可以看版主客串写的这篇文 :

https://www.facebook.com/eventuregroup.jb/posts/1021783924887702

 

原因#3 – 公司两位大老板 “暂停职务”

 

一直以来,Tony 本身就是AirAsia 的灵魂人物 刚跟一位AirAsia 的投资者聊天,他表示没有Tony 的AirAsia 就不是AirAsia,这点老实说,我深感赞同!

 

毕竟是他把一家亏钱亏到够够力的公司转盈利,不容易啊!

 

但是,现在CEO – Tan Sri Anthony Francis Fernandes,以及Executive Chairman Datuk Kamarudin Bin Meranun,两人都暂时罢免职务,为期两个月或公司再后进行决定,可以说,AirAsia 的主心骨走了,投资者肯定怕咯!

 

在这个那么紧急的时候,EPF 竟然再补刀出售7.5 Million 左右的AirAsia 股份.. 你说惨不惨?

 

Source:https://www.theedgemarkets.com/…/epf-disposes-744-million-s…

 

总结:

 

AirAsia 这家公司在派 RM 0.90 股息的时候,我就跑人了啦!那时候做的那篇文章给不少人shoot,不过我希望那篇文章最少有帮到一部分的人!

 

如果你现在已经买入AirAsia 的话,要考虑下你买入的原因有没有因为这三个事件而改变,再做决定要捞底红飞机的不是不可以,只是老板下位,国家队(EPF)走人,注意风险吧!

 

免费Telegram 链接: https://t.me/public12invest

 

原文:https://www.facebook.com/275223403133288/posts/503772403611719/

 

 

免责声明:

以上所有的内容都单纯只是个人的观点,所涉及的内容只能被当成是学习,教育与资讯用途,而绝非专业的金融,投资意见,或买卖意见。请自行分析,了解其风险,再向专业的金融理财顾问专家探讨投资的性质。

12Invest 绝不对任何分享的内容,观点,的准确性,完整性,正确性,有效期性负责人。所有的误解,错误,遗漏,资讯的延迟所造成的伤害恕不负责。

 

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Labels: AIRASIA

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
AIRASIA 0.805 +0.015 (1.90%) 37,223,200 

  Patrick13 likes this.
 
probability Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business
06/02/2020 4:09 PM
probability In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....
06/02/2020 5:23 PM
probability what is 50M shared between 2 person indirectly versus the Billions ringgit interest they have on AA.........

That 50M did not even went to their pocket...may be RM 1k went in

you think all other companies in Bursa are held by "Puritans"?? They dont buy anything for their customers??

fcuk the hypocrisy....

market really need to wake up leh!
.................................
06/02/2020 10:34 PM


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