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Author: probability   |   Latest post: Thu, 14 May 2020, 8:21 PM

 

Wuhan Coronavirus - actual fatality rate < 0.5% (please challenge this finding)

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This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory


As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%

 

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited healthcare support till they complete the hospitals being constructed.

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Even with the latest data on infection and fatality, if one carefully excludes Wuhan patients and victims, the above fatality rate will stand true. This makes the risk from Wuhan virus comparable to Influenza.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

The media had exaggerated the risks but this is needed presently to contain the spread of the virus elsewhere.

It is to nip it at the bud stage.

 

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  CharlesT likes this.
 
probability This is the fatality rate one can expect with a sufficient healthcare support availability.
02/02/2020 6:46 PM
davidkkw79 Every years in US their flu, at least 10k people die in season flu, 20-40 millions people got infected. Now this wuhan virus just a bit only, then market like bragging it so much.
02/02/2020 6:57 PM
tien171 New virus strain. so many facts still unknown and no vaccine/cure . expected reaction is panic.
it started in Wuhan and so many got infected in a very short time and fatality rate consider high in Hubei until hospital is full.

Wuhan is the epicenter .
The people living around here obviously now experience High stress levels.
imagine living in wuhan now , every second your mind in active stress .
maybe a reason for higher fatality .
02/02/2020 7:26 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ do not underestimate the epidemic.

with so many detected and death, this is a serious infection indeed.

i cannot imagine the present available resources to handle the epidemic.

the not too unwell will probably be quarantined and monitored.

the very sick will also be quarantined and intensely monitored and treated.

the very very sick will be in intensive care and may need to be on machines to breath.

the resources must be overwhelmed.

the new hospitals can improve on the mortality rate by saving some more life
.
there must be many contacts too under quarantine and monitoring.
02/02/2020 7:57 PM
probability 0.2% fatality rate means, 1 in 500 infected will be fatal
02/02/2020 8:04 PM
stockraider Then u better sell all your share, start selling your nestle, dlady, petdag, pbank, F&N, Padini, Pbank, Aeoncredit, Heineken why waste time talk cock leh ??

The way u talk u better run like hell leh ??

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) > Feb 2, 2020 7:57 PM | Report Abuse

do not underestimate the epidemic.

with so many detected and death, this is a serious infection indeed.

i cannot imagine the present available resources to handle the epidemic.

the not too unwell will probably be quarantined and monitored.

the very sick will also be quarantined and intensely monitored and treated.

the very very sick will be in intensive care and may need to be on machines to breath.

the resources must be overwhelmed.

the new hospitals can improve on the mortality rate by saving some more life
.
there must be many contacts too under quarantine and monitoring.
02/02/2020 8:04 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>>>

stockraider Then u better sell all your share, start selling your nestle, dlady, petdag, pbank, F&N, Padini, Pbank, Aeoncredit, Heineken why waste time talk cock leh ??

>>>>>>>



you sounded angry. stay cool.


humbly yours
02/02/2020 8:14 PM
tumbler China's central bank said it will inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($173.8 billion) worth of liquidity into the markets via reverse repo operations on Monday, as the country prepares to reopen its stock markets amid a new coronavirus outbreak
02/02/2020 8:26 PM
tumbler Now coronavirus have drug to cure from USA , then the curing case been overtake the death case. Condition been control and improve
02/02/2020 8:28 PM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
02/02/2020 8:31 PM
probability every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.
02/02/2020 8:34 PM
Bullballs Epidemic not over so can't say what's the fatality rate. So far for every person that check out of the hospital another one is checking out horizontally, May his soul RIP.
02/02/2020 8:42 PM
Equityengineer Mathematical model can predict with datasets. It’s just matter of time to reach plateau. That is all depends on how well contained . There is already cured cases and those infected not fatal yet..

Mathematical model can’t predict humans insanity
02/02/2020 8:57 PM
probability we can't predict on short term insanity...but perhaps we can on long term sanity
02/02/2020 9:05 PM
probability Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient in 'serious condition' is declared 'disease-free' in 48 hours after treatment with HIV and flu drugs

11:41 GMT, 2 February 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html

Medics tested the drug mix on a patient who was in a 'serious condition' with the disease and within 48 hours they were declared disease-free.
02/02/2020 9:11 PM
zhangzuode Scientist from Hong Kong estimated that 75,815 persons may have been infested since last Tuesday (28 January). This was based on the assumption that each infected person could have passed the virus to 2.68 others. Taking this to be true. The total number infected now would be north of 80,000. With known death of 305, the fatality rate would be 0.38%.

Ok, lets double the death to 710 to account for unknown unknown, the fatality rate is still only 0.76%. This would fall within the US seasonal flu fatality of 0.7%.

Yes, it appear that current reactions to this new coronavirus appear a bit over careful (an understatement on my part).

But because it is new and not much is known about it, the fear is gripping everyone, whether one is communist or democratic person.

So, there is opportunity to selectively pick up good counters that is or will be selling cheap.

Nothing to fear but fear itself - Franklin D. Roosevelt

Happy investing.
02/02/2020 9:51 PM
zhangzuode US seasonal flu fatality rate of 0.7% is based on US Center of Diseases Control and Prevention for the 2019 / 2020 season.
02/02/2020 9:54 PM
Sslee Dear all,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

The earliest reported cases in the US began appearing in late March 2009, in California,[118][119] then spread to infect people in Texas, New York, and assorted other states by mid-April. This spread continued across the country's population and by the end of May had infected citizens in all 50 states. The pattern continued through June of the same year

On October 24, 2009, President Barack Obama declared Swine Flu a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected with 2009 A H1N1 and 4,000 Americans have died.[125] On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 American had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states.[126] On December 23, 2009 the CDC reported a reduction of the disease by 59% percent and the disease was expected to end in the United States in January 2010.

On January 15, 2010, the CDC released new estimate figures for swine flu, saying it has sickened about 55 million Americans and killed about 11,160 from April through mid-December.[127] On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January.

Thank you
02/02/2020 10:05 PM
stockraider CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

USA RECORDED MOST DEATH BCOS H1NI ORIGINATED FROM USA MAH...!!
02/02/2020 10:32 PM
blackchicken China to inject $174bn of liquidity on Feb. 3 as markets reopen
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/China-to-inject-174bn-of-liquidity-on-Feb.-3-as-markets-reopen
02/02/2020 10:45 PM
blackchicken Coronavirus: Thailand has apparent treatment success with antiviral drug cocktail
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3048629/coronavirus-thailand-has-apparent-treatment-success
02/02/2020 11:55 PM
Up_down Actions are more important. Another lockdown of WenZhou after HuBei. This is the trend of locking down one another. What’s important is the implications of locking down to the world economy.
03/02/2020 12:17 AM
i3lurker no worries
world economy improves

need lockdown to make more new babies
while old folks get killed.
03/02/2020 12:19 AM
Up_down Better put like this....No worry because the name of world 2nd biggest economy is fake so world economy remains robust regardless of the China economy performance.
03/02/2020 12:24 AM
probability International companies based in china already officially gave notification that they are closed till 10th Feb.

The whole lockdown purpose is to checkmate the virus using space (1) and time (2).

(1) Ensure it does not have the space of less than 2 meter radius to spread to another

(2) It stays within the radius during its lifespan of 14 days

...........

Once (1) & (2) are done.... the spread comes to a complete halt.
03/02/2020 12:32 AM
probability no manufacturing and business activity can stop in china for a prolonged period.......

you cant stop people from consuming......

i predict the lockdown will be over within max 2 weeks
03/02/2020 12:36 AM
Ricky Yeo Calculating probability is always based on total number. No one has died in Malaysia, so do you want to conclude coronavirus death rate is 0%?
03/02/2020 8:11 AM
davidkkw79 Thailand find out the cure !
03/02/2020 8:46 AM
probability the pool sampled is large within China just excluding Hubei...best is if you can exclude Wuhan alone...

there is a logic why it was done and it was explained due to proper healthcare availability in time

....

this carries meaning to predict the fatality rate on actual scenario worldwide where proper healthcare for such patients would be abundant
03/02/2020 9:52 AM
probability There is a reason why the website below calculates the same at 0.3%...its not without a meaning

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate (CFR) is currently estimated at around 2%, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, January 29, 2020

However, the WHO specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."
.
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization .

A prior estimate [3] had put that number at 3%, between 2% and 4%.

Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

Once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%.
=======================

Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).

=======================
03/02/2020 9:57 AM
probability Fear should be directly proportional to the odds one would be dying due to this virus....allocating a reasonable low amount of resources (brain energy) for prevention.

the below posting earlier reasons why you should not be worried.

But that does not mean one should refrain from doing the necessary activities to prevent...same goes to passive smoking.

With the current screening done at international airports....you can be as relaxed...just like you dont wear a mask beside a smoker to avoid passive smoking.

of course the equation changes when people infected in your country goes beyond a threshold the country can manage easily


..................................
Feb 2, 2020 8:34 PM | Report Abuse


every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.
03/02/2020 10:27 AM
Ricky Yeo i have no idea why would someone wants exclude large sample size, if anything, large sample is more reliable than small sample.

Sure death rate % is constantly changing, but excluding a large sample doesn't make it more accurate. Imagine I would flip coin 1000x in KL and get 50% heads, then I go to JB and flip coin for 5x and get TTTTT: 0% head. Then I proclaim the law of physic in JB is different from KL. That's a stupid logic.
03/02/2020 11:09 AM
probability wuhan is where it originated.....since oct 2019...

the pool there would be the least to have early treatment ...at least a month late avg compared to others...its like the average exposure time (sick period) of the virus on patients there is relatively high

and were compromised due to large no. of patients vs limited hospitals due to lock down

.....

so there is a meaning to exclude it
03/02/2020 11:16 AM
probability even WHO were careful to declare emergency saying purely on the account of largely populated countries having poor healthcare facilities
03/02/2020 11:27 AM
probability we can raise the fatality rate to even 50% by depriving medical assistance / treatment completely..

our objective here is to determine the fatality rate having provided full medical assistance with the latest proven drugs..

that does appear to be 0.2% level..1 in 500 and its likely to come even lower than that.
03/02/2020 1:11 PM
Noideatoo stupid article!there is grief and loss to family for each life. Who care for your stupid number? Fill up your time with meaningful activity if you are too bored and free!
03/02/2020 2:22 PM
probability updated statistics in China excluding Hubei can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

infected excluding Hubei:5319

fatality excluding Hubei:11

rate: = 11/5319
= 0.2%
03/02/2020 11:25 PM
kinuxian New suspected cases rate is important indicator to determine effectiveness of containment measurement. This morning had very low number. We shall see more please stories if trend continue for coming few days.

Fatalities rate low or high, its important but not the only key focus. If outbreak uncontrollable and spread to 1 bil ppl, it going to be huge disaster as well.
04/02/2020 7:40 AM
kinuxian Correction.. seems like the suspected rate published figures was delayed / multiple batches at in a day. Earlier was merely 21, it just updated to 1.6K couple minutes back.
04/02/2020 8:24 AM
probability Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate; 0.16%!!!!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHS said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. So, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
.........................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.

Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

..........

exactly like i had explained earlier
07/02/2020 9:57 PM
gemfinder Vietnam succeeds in isolating coronavirus, faster detection kits and treatment expected
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 7 Feb 2020, 9:33 PM

HANOI : The National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE) has successfully cultivated and isolated the new coronavirus, first reported in Wuhan City in China.

The information was revealed on Friday (Feb 7) by Deputy Minister of Health Nguyễn Thanh Long on the sidelines of the National Steering Committee meeting on coronavirus prevention and control.

With the isolated virus, the NIHE will start work to develop test kits capable for quick diagnosis.

More than 1,000 people returning from China, and nearly 500 with close contacts to people infected with coronavirus are being quarantined and put under close observation in Vietnam.

With the cultivation and isolation of the acute respiratory virus, Vietnam is capable of conducting tests on thousands of samples per day if necessary, said Long.

It would also offer further research for vaccines against the virus in the future, he said.

Long added that so far Vietnam ensured provision of enough biological products for testing.

A week ago, Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases announced that it has succeeded in cultivating and isolating the virus.

Using the isolated virus, the institute will also develop vaccines, and discover the infection mechanism and promote research on the toxicity of the virus
07/02/2020 10:05 PM
Noideatoo So? 630 lives are lost. Only stupid fool going to talk what if this or that.
07/02/2020 10:24 PM
probability Noidea...we are not saying we dont care about the lives lost...me too felt very bad hearing about Dr. Li wenliang..

But the objective of this article is to assure market participants to feel relaxed and need not fear of an economic collapse or long term business implications


Posted by Noideatoo > Feb 7, 2020 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

So? 630 lives are lost. Only stupid fool going to talk what if this or that.
07/02/2020 10:29 PM
Noideatoo This article going to make market amd economic not collapse?
You think too highly of yourself. Just one word - stupid
07/02/2020 10:35 PM
probability i am not saying it will prevent economic collapse...it wont collapse

this article is to tell market participants to make informed investment decision inline with the purpose of i3...which is independent, intelligent, informed
07/02/2020 10:38 PM
Noideatoo So? whatever,you are too free for such meaningless article
07/02/2020 10:40 PM
Noideatoo Oh yeah,please write article what if there is no coronavirus outbreak.you are so free and have ample time.
07/02/2020 10:43 PM
probability the article definitely carries a meaning. if you cannot digest it...its not my obligation to make your intelligence to a level you can understand.

Whether i have too much time or doing something useful or not useful to me...its none of your bloody business to judge.

i do what derives pleasure to me

if you dont like the article..you have the freedom not to read
07/02/2020 10:47 PM
pantor Agree that the fatality rate is much less than 2%,because the denominator is greatly under-reported. Many minor cases may not seek treatment and just stay at home and they recover spontaneously.
08/02/2020 12:33 AM


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