Highlights

[3A] 值得守候的天使

Author: shafa0165   |   Latest post: Thu, 21 Feb 2019, 9:24 AM

 

[3A] - 季度报告简易

Author: shafa0165   |  Publish date: Thu, 21 Feb 2019, 9:24 AM


 

 

Quarter 4Q - 2018 4Q - 2017
Revenue 120,354 109,424
Cost of Sales 101,056 83,139
Inventories 80,064 45,210
Operating profit before change in working capital changes 42,653 67,587

 

  •  这次的盈利看来有增长, 还算不错。
  • 销售成本增主要是应付新厂的开销。 
  • 存库增加的幅度很大,有几个可能性。
  1. 木薯粉价钱下调了,公司大量进货?
  2. 购买原料为了应付新厂的生产?
  3. 为了应付2019华人过年的需求量?
  • 这次的operating cash flow比较成熟,因为已经完全cancelled off gain on disposal of a joint venture。
  • 美中不足的是operating profit after working capital changes 是(12,725),因为有34,854用于购买inventory。

总结

问题只是出在于存库增加的那方面。本人相信还是需要时间等待利好。 

 

 

 

 

 

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[3A] - 解剖公司等待爆发

Author: shafa0165   |  Publish date: Mon, 21 Jan 2019, 2:07 PM


2018 年在股市里可以说是很具有挑战性的一年。比较严重引起股市的退潮的因素有美国FED升息, 贸易战,英国脱欧。 这些因素导致了投资者对市场失去信心。

在选股方面就必须小心的去筛选。下跌空间有限的必然可有长期此有的价值。

FED 升息会对有借贷美金的公司增加interest cost。公司也会因为interest cost赚到的钱会减少。

 贸易战会影响美国和中国的进/出口主要为中国的科技业还有美国的农业打击较大。

所以2019年的选股策略就避免会受到以上因素的影响还有以生意模式去筛选可长期持有的公司。

3A 资源的产品包括焦糖粉、酵醋、蒸馏醋、高麦芽糖浆、大豆蛋白酱、水解植物蛋白粉及麦芽糊精等。这些产品都是以F&B的领域。 公司的生意主要由Malaysia, South Korea, Indenesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and US。

 

Operating Segment (FY2017)
Revenue 2017 (‘000) %
Malaysia 256,718 62.4
Singapore 36,718 8.9
Other Foreign Countries 118,049 28.7
Total 411,485 100

 

 

 

 

 

公司主要产品销售在马来西亚占据了62.4%, 新加坡8.92%。3A的生意并不会被中美贸易战影响,在2017年的revenue 稳健成长这要归功于plant No.3 开始贡献盈利。

FY 2017 有提到两个重点具有长期持有的价值加上F&B领域没有所谓的周期性,随着人口增长可稳健成长。

  1. More plant automation to reduce reliance on foreign labor, we continued spending adequately on modernizing and upgrading our production facilities during the financial year. We are steadfast in our commitment to ensure our production facilities are efficient to provide better returns and cost savings. (自动化生产,减少依赖外劳,缩减人头税)
  2. New Caramel Powder Plant that is due for completion by the end of year 2019. The new plant is expected to raise our annual Caramel Powder products production output drastically. (新厂增加盈利)

 

3A的缺点就是公司的毛利会受到木薯粉价格波动影响。 截至2018第三季度报告管理层把成本转嫁给顾客。

原料木薯粉的价格也从 2018年10月 USD 515/Mt 下滑到 2019年1月 USD 445/Mt 。

中国的政策下木薯价下调可维持两年 

https://www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/57ef4f9d-2dcc-4b12-b3a2-3d0ae268471c/IO_Cassava_180807_EN_EX.aspx

 

截至2018第三季度3A 现金负债比例健康,27million Vs  17million为净现金公司。3A贷款都是MYR,只要国行没有升息公司的interest cost并不会增加。而且贷款款项不高。

总结3A长期持有的3大利好因素如下:

  1. 新厂贡献盈利稳健增长
  2. 成本转嫁顾客毛利增加
  3. 木薯价格下调毛利增加

抗跌因素如下

  1. 消费领域
  2. 需求随着人口增长逐渐增加
  3. 不具有周期性
  4. 不受贸易战影响
  5. 不受美国联储局升息影响
  6. 股息派发
Labels: 3A
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Flintstones Author mindset

重仓3A,等待爆发
21/01/2019 2:58 PM
Icon8888 http://www.thaitapiocastarch.org/en/information/statistics/weekly_tapioca_starch_price/2018
21/01/2019 3:00 PM
Icon8888 Tapioca price came down a lot
21/01/2019 3:01 PM
Icon8888 No wonder Flinstones comments all directly from textbook

He doesn't play stocks (his own confession)

No real battlefield experience

Now I know
21/01/2019 3:02 PM
davidkkw79 Clap clap clap
21/01/2019 3:58 PM
Flintstones Icon8888, you like 3A you buy lor. Tapioca price goes up and down. You want to invest based on tapioca price alone just go ahead. It is not my game. Just like how I avoided losing money in Jaks, I operate under my circle of competence.
21/01/2019 4:38 PM
Flintstones By the way, I like 3A at this price
21/01/2019 4:49 PM


 

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