ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Tue, 15 Oct 2019, 10:13 AM


ATFX Market Update - 2019.02.12

Author:   |    Publish date:

Personal opinions today

The impact of the Brexit uncertainty in the UK has plagued the UK and European economies, causing almost European currencies down against the USD. From yesterday the UK reported, the fourth quarter GDP of the UK fell to 1.3%, down from 1.5% last month and 1.4% expected by the market. Also, the UK construction output and industrial production fell, reflecting the uncertainty of the Brexit continue to hamper the UK's economic development. Along with the weak European economic data, the overall European currency performance continued to be weak. In addition, the market is waiting the for Sino-US trade negotiations on Thursday, investment sentiment is cautious.

In this morning, Australia announced that the housing loan license has fallen sharply from the previous value and market expectations. Fortunately, the business climate index and business confidence index remain strong, and the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar have limited declines against the US dollar. The market is concerned about the interest rate decision and monetary policy of the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank tomorrow morning. If the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank will maintain the interest rates and positive  monetary policy outlook.  The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar will release the downward pressure. The other way is the China RMB rebound, it could be moved the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar go up.

Today, the market has no important economic data released in Europe and the United States. Most of the investors paying attention to the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speech. If his remarks remain pessimistic, it is more likely to reflect the UK inflation data could be fall. The GBP/USD hard to rebound in the short term. In addition, the commodity market is concerned about the release of the API’s crude oil inventory report tomorrow morning, which has an impact on the crude oil price and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.

Today's suggestion:

1.1300/1.1325 resistance
1.1245/1.1220 support
The European economic data is weak, and the UK's economic growth has fallen, dragging down the euro. At the beginning of this week, there was a lack of reference to the economic data of the Eurozone. The market may use other important data from the UK to drive the development of the Euro. It is worth paying attention to the speech of the Bank of England Governor speech tonight and the performance of the UK consumer price index CPl tomorrow. It is expected that the trend of the pound will lead the euro. Technically, the EIRUSD have the opportunity to test last year's low of 1.1217!

1.2905/1.2925 resistance
1.2835/1.2815 support
After the Bank of England’s interest rate decision last week, the Bank of England Governor expressed his pessimistic stance and affected the sentiment of the pound. The Governor of the Bank of England made another speech tonight, believing that the position will not change. Coupled with the announcement of the decline in GDP in the fourth quarter of the UK, it is difficuregain ack the market confidence and the pounI could be keeping weak. Technically, keep an eye on last year's low 1.2815 important support.

1.0060/1.0090 resistance
1.0030/1.0000 support
European economic data and prospects are weak, the UK's economic growth is declining, and it is predicted that UK inflation will slow down as well. The Swiss franc is indirectly dragged down. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to consolidate at 1.0060, but it must be noted that the dollar may further break through against the Swiss franc.

110.60/110.95 resistance
109.85/109.50 support
Sino-US trade negotiation will be held on Thursday, and the Japanese stock market opened higher, driving the dollar to rise against the yen. Technically, the USDJPY broke the important resistance of 110.15, and the next step is to try to test 110.60 and 110.95 resistance. However, if the Nikkei index falls, the USD/JPY trend is likely to reverse.

0.7115/0.7135 resistance
0.7055/0.7040 support
The weak Australian economic data and the strength of the US dollar have caused the Australian dollar to fall. However, the most important Sino-US trade negotiations are imminent, and it is expected to change the recent weakness of the Australian dollar. Technically, it is expected that the Australian dollar will be adjusted against the US dollar. At present, it will avoid falling below the 0.7020 support risk. If there is any good news to break the resistance of 0.7135, the Australian dollar is expected to test the 0.72 level, but please pay attention to the short-term risks and fluctuations!

0.6755/0.6775 resistance
0.6715/0.6695 support
The Bank of New Zealand’s Federal Reserve Bank announced the interest rate decision tomorrow morning. The market will wait for the monetary policy orientation to follow the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which currently affects the downside risks of the New Zealand dollar. The Sino-US trade negotiations will soon be held on Thursday. If the atmosphere is good, it is expected to make progress, and it is expected to change the recent weakening trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the 0.6805 resistance is very important. If this resistance is broken, the market sentiment will be improved and the New Zealand dollar will still have room to rise.

1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3265/1.3250 support
Crude oil prices were weak and prices fell to $52, which hindered the Canadian dollar from rising. In addition, pay close attention to the amount of crude oil inventories and the development of crude oil prices. If crude oil inventories increase substantially and crude oil prices continue to fall, the dollar will have a chance to follow the rise. Now may keep waiting for the first important resistance is 1.3340!

0.8780/0.8805 resistance
0.8740/0.8725 support
There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the pound. Yesterday, the UK's GDP data for the fourth quarter of the year was weak, but it still dragged down the euro. Finally, the euro rose slightly against the pound. Technically, 0.8780 is the first important resistance reference.

1.1335/1.1350 resistance
1.1300/1.1285 support
The economic performance of the Eurozone and the overall European area was weak, and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy is dovish caused the euro to fall, which further dragged the Swiss franc. The two sides are weak, and the volatility of the euro against the Swiss franc has not changed much.

1311/1313 resistance
1305/1303 support
Global stock markets tend to be conservative, and economic data disappoints the market. Last night, the US Dow and European stock markets generally fell, the price of crude oil continued to weaken, and gold and silver prices were supported. If the situation remains unchanged, it is estimated that the price of gold will maintain above $1,300. Technically, $1,305 and $1,303 are the first important support areas. If the Global stock markets fell, gold prices have the opportunity to rise further, test the resistance area of ​​1311/1313.

US crude oil futures:
52.90/53.40 resistance
52.05/51.75 support
The market is still worried about the slowdown in crude oil demand. Crude oil prices have fallen below 51.75 support and have seen $51.25. Technically, crude oil futures prices still have a chance to adjust in depth, testing $50 for support. However, short-term factors include the amount of crude oil inventories tomorrow and the outcome of Sino-US trade negotiations. If both sides will bring a positive message, the crude oil price will have a chance to rebound, and the test will be $54.

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25190/25235 resistance
24880/24750 support
The market looks forward to the meeting and the outcome between China and the United States. If any good new, it will help to improve the investment climate. It is estimated that before the official start of negotiations, the stock market trend is repeated, paying attention to the ups and downs of the US Dow. Technically, if the Dow falls below 24880 support, the trend may further widen the decline. Technically, it may pay attention to the adjustment of the next level of important support 24750.

3480  / 3280 support
3750 / 3950 resistance 
The global economy predicts a slowdown, it maybe increases the demand of the cryptocurrency investment. If the demand increase and the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin, it could test the first resistance  US3750.

Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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