Highlights

ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 Nov 2019, 12:15 PM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.10.15

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
Trade talks between China and the United States made progress over the weekend, and the two sides strengthened trade cooperation. In the next two to three weeks, officials from the trade department of the two sides will sort out the contents of the agreement in more detail. We hope that the agreement can be implemented and formally signed at the end of this year. China and the United States improved relations, investment atmosphere boosted, risk aversion cooled. But the U.S. President and the administration have so far made no clear plans to halt or postpone the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese goods in October and December, respectively. The stock market has shifted to cautious watching. The price of crude oil fell to the level of $53, despite the news of us sanctions against Turkey and Opec production cuts, and continued to fall due to the failure of us-china trade tariffs.
 
Asian markets may be affected by the September CPI data released by China today, with regional currencies and yen, Australian dollar and New Zealand likely to be affected indirectly. In Europe, BOE governor spoke and released minutes of its financial policy meeting. The release of the ZEW economic sentiment index for the Eurozone and Germany in October could affect the direction of European currencies, especially the Euro and pound. U.S. released, October New York federal reserve manufacturing index. Although the data is less influential, it is also worth noting that there have been some fluctuations in the dollar and gold prices. The latest news of trade talks is also to be watched. If good news comes out, Dow futures can expand their upside, which is bearish for gold and yen. Conversely, the dollar is bearish, gold and yen are bullish.
 
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
 
08:30 The RBA releases minutes **
09:30 China September CPI annualized rate **
16:25 Fed bullard speaks *
16:30 BOE releases minutes ***
17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment index for October **
17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for October **
20:30 New York Fed manufacturing index for October
21:00 IMF holds global economic forecast conference *
 
Today's suggestion:
 
Euro/dollar
1.1035/1.1050 resistance
1.0105/1.0990 support
The recent release of the minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting and European economic data showed no growth. Coming the ECB monetary policy decision, also bearish the Euro. In the dollar, the market expects the Fed to raise expectations of a rate cut, which could keep the Euro positive. If all data from the Eurozone and Germany show renewed weakness, the Euro could adjust further. In addition, the market with the news of Brexit deals, and the impact of pound, indirect impact on the Euro. Worthy of mutual reference!
 
Pound to dollar
1.2635/1.2645 resistance
1.2555/1.2545 support
The British prime minister presented the new Brexit Deal to the European Union, which said it was open to discussion and was not confident it could be resolved by the end of the month. Britain's parliament has reopened to resolve its decision to leave the European Union by the end of the month. Now, if the European parliament makes a decision on Thursday or Friday and the new deal is rejected, it could lead to a deep negative and bearish for pound.
 
Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6775/0.6790 resistance
0.6745/0.6730 support
Well progress in the 13th round of US and China trade talks had bullish the Australian dollar. But the terms of the trade deal are still being discussed. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to remain on the sidelines unless the U.S. President and administration decide whether to suspend tariffs on Chinese goods and other good news. Also, must  watch out for the Fed beige book on Thursday, which could be bearish for the dollar, bullish AUDUSD.
 
Dollar/yen
108.45/108.55 resistance
107.85/107.75 support
Well progress in trade talks between China and the United States, heat up investment sentiment, with Dow and Nikkei futures maintaining gains and the dollar rising against the yen. Dow and Nikkei futures are likely to fall this week on expectations of economic gloom and weak data from the Fed Beige book and U.S. retail sales. If the Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the USDJPY will follow fall. Technically, the USDJPY resistance 108.45, depending on the situation, may not succeed in breaking through.
 
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3250/1.3260 resistance
1.3205/1.3195 support
Crude oil prices fell and the dollar rose against the Canadian dollar. But U.S. inflation and retail sales are expected to fall as the trade talks take hold. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, the dollar is weak and the Canadian dollar is strong. U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar trading recommendations focus on crude oil prices. If crude oil prices fall, the dollar rises against the Canadian dollar.
 
United States crude oil futures
54.15/54.40 resistance
52.50/52.25 support
U.S. economic data weak, all shown in September. The market expectations of weak U.S. retail sales, which bearish crude demand and oil prices. As the US-Eurozone trade war continues and tensions rise in US-Turkey, demand for crude oil may slow. Hoping only that OPEC plans to cut output supports prices at $52. Trade talks between China and the United States are progressing well, and any further suspension of Chinese import duties could boost crude oil futures prices.
 
Gold
1502/1504 resistance
1487/1485 support
Dow futures rose and gold fell as US and China trade talks progressed. But US and Turkey tensions and the new Brexit deal could be rejected by the EU commission and the British parliament. In addition, the economic performance of the United States fell in September, and the expected decline in U.S. inflation and retail sales data raised the chances of the federal reserve cutting interest rates higher. Money flows back to the gold market for safety, the possibility of gold prices rise. Believe that the focus of the market return to dollar assets downside risk. Besides, Britain new deals to leave Europe may be rejected, and gold may be chased, rising in price and increasing the chance of testing above $1,500.
 
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26950/27040 resistance
26660/26445 support
Dow futures continued to rise last night as trade talks between the US and China progressed well, pending the drafting of a new agreement, and investment sentiment improved. Despite the success of the current the trade talks, the market may have priced in expectations and believe it is starting to stay on the sidelines, with a correction that could see Dow futures fail to test 27,000. On top of that, Dow futures have a good chance of adjusting ahead of the Fed beige book and U.S. retail sales data for September.
 
BTCUSD:
8900/ 9200 resistance
8000 / 7885 support
As US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. This is good for crypto currencies, bullish Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price rebounded, then the bitcoin price would test 8900 or 9200 resistance
 
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
 
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. 

 

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