Highlights

Ultimate Stock Tips

Author: CynicalCyan   |   Latest post: Sun, 26 Dec 2021, 12:00 AM

 

Last Ultimate Stock Tip of 2021

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sun, 26 Dec 2021, 12:00 AM


 

In my first blogpost, I asked "How to Recover from a 50% loss?" 

I have no answers to it, because it is just so damn hard to recover.

Just ask anyone who bought TOPGLOV, ATAIMS, SCIB, GPACKET, etc. & held until now. 

 

Which is exactly why I prefer buying blue chips & stable stocks that have low share price volatility. 

 

One could argue that buying mature blue chips won't get you rich quick.

 

But having seen the challenging stockmarket of 2020 & 2021, preservation of capital takes priority over insane short-term gains. 

 

How many of us can accurately buy TOPGLOV at RM7.00 in 2020 & sell at RM21, earning an insane 200% gain within a year? Or how many of us can catch GENETEC in 2021 when it was RM6, before it made a giant leap to RM36 currently? 500% a year even beats TSLA. 

 

Although we cannot have such exceptional returns, aiming reasonable gains in a year should be sufficient. 

 

Blue chips like banks have stood the test of time,  emerging stronger from each crisis. As shown in my sample portfolio, PBBANK & MAYBANK are my top picks among banks.

 

At this juncture, even badly battered KLCI component glove stocks could be candidates for long term investment. (Note: Long term = 3 years & above)

 


 

The possibility of our KLCI touching 1600 by year end is akin to finding a needle in a haystack now. Which means my prediction is wrong.

 

But as one local fund manager once said: "Forecasts are forecasts, they are not reality."

 

How true.

 

Does that mean, one should not trust analysts' reports?

 

Not in totality, but it can be a good source of extra information. 

 

What is most important is whether your buying + selling is correct, after receiving multiple sources of "noise" in the stockmarket.

 


I hope I have contributed meaningfully to the investing community of klse.i3investor.

 

I apologise for any toxic posts, whether to anyone or organisation. Believe it or not, I have no malicious or ad hominem intents. 对事不对人。

 

Merry Xmas to those celebrating, happy holidays & Happy New Year.

 

The coming year of 2022 will be a much better year for investors. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. The author may have interest in some stocks listed above.

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The Case Study of TOPGLOV vs GENETEC

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sat, 25 Dec 2021, 9:31 PM


 

The Rose vs The Squirrel

At 18 Sep 2021, TOPGLOV was RM3.06, GENETEC was RM36.02.

At 25 Dec 2021, TOPGLOV was RM2.19, GENETEC was RM36.66.

 

3 months later, GENETEC wins hands down in stock returns. 

 

What can we learn from it:

1) Stocks that face a challenging future outlook usually are in a downtrend.

This is especially evident when TOPGLOV posted back-to-back worse than expected financial results.

In contrast, GENETEC posted consecutive financial results that showed vast improvement, an indicator that it could be a successful turnaround stock. 
 


2) Stocks which have smaller market capitalisation are comparatively easier to grow in market capitalisation.

Whether from 1 year stock return chart, or 10 year stock return chart, GENETEC wins. 

Why? Because it's easier for a 200 million market cap company to double, compared to a 20 billion market cap company. TOPGLOV was also once a tiny company with a small market cap & had had astounding growth in the past. 

 

3) Dividends are miniscule compared to absolute capital gains. 

Dividends are a good thing. It is a steady form of income from companies. 

However, capital gains triumphs high dividend returns if share price is unsustainable. 

 

4) Stocks that have great share price boom were previously unwanted by Mr. Market & suddenly caught Mr. Market's eyes.

Before the phenomenal spike in share price, no one knew or wanted to buy Genetec. The Genetec of 2022 will be some relatively unknown stock.

 

5) Stock price performance does not indicate quality of company. 

Apple Inc. stock rose 500% in 5 years while Genetec stock rose 4000% in 5 years. 

Is Genetec a higher quality company than Apple Inc.?

 

CONCLUSION:

This article is not to promote Genetec, but rather an analysis of both. It goes to show that at times, investing in current fundamentally strong companies may not generate positive returns to investors in a random time frame of 3 months. 

Once again, I reiterate that the Squirrel has climbed too high from the ground. When support of the tree branches break, the Squirrel will suffer a terrible fall. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. The author disclaims all liabilities from readers. The author may have interest in some stocks listed above.

 

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CharlesT Small cap easy to corner n fry to the sky.
26/12/2021 7:08 AM
arv18 A short, simple, excellent article. Better than anything Kon You Yin or OTB can write. Well done. Keep it up.

Don't forget to book profits. Then put some aside to re-invest in X or Y a little later.

What comes down, will go up (if it's not broke). Buy Low, Sell High.

Cheers.
26/12/2021 8:03 AM
Sansing Sure share split will occurs very soon like 30 for 1 in order to reduce the price so as to attract uninformed investors.
26/12/2021 10:14 AM
CharlesT Yeap. Thats their gameplan...to sell "cheap' shares after the massive share split
26/12/2021 10:34 AM

Brace Yourselves. Winter has Arrived.

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sat, 18 Dec 2021, 9:04 PM


Not just had the local stockmarket turned cold. The weather has turned cold too.

Since the start of this week, it has rained frequently. Flash floods are happening. (which may dampened sentiment of share prices of companies near flash flood prone areas)

2021 has been a year of Mr. Market of USA being a super bull while the Mr. Market of Malaysia has been a ultra bear.

What a depressing time. 


 

Amidst the sombre mood, research analysts and fund managers have been scratching their heads, trying to find the best stockpicks for 2022.

Would the catastrophe of the glove stocks occur to other stocks in 2022, once the short-selling resumes? Or could there be more fairytales, like the GENETEC or KOBAY or SAM of 2021 repeating in 2022?

One thing for sure, the top gainers for 2022 is very unlikely to be stocks currently in the Top 30 trending of klse.i3investor.com. How would share price fly when there are already many buyers aware of it? It must be something which is undiscovered, an explosive growth stock with exciting growth prospects waiting to be unearthed. 

 


 

My narrative remains unchanged since last month.

It may be a long and cold winter.

But one must not lose sight of the warmth of spring once winter is over. 

 


Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. The author does not have any interest in the specific stocks listed above.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ARBB = A Really Big Bargain?! Use Value Investing!

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sat, 11 Dec 2021, 11:59 PM


 

Value investing has always been touted as the Holy Grail of investing. 

 

Buy below intrinsic value. Sell when stock prices move above its intrinsic value. 

 

GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) is also a component of value investing. As long as a company grows its financials, investors buying at not so cheap prices will still see share prices going up eventually.

 

ARBB

Main Board. Tech stock. Formerly in timber business, currently changed to ERP business. (From Annual Report 2021, ERP is an integrated application that an organisation can use to collect, store, manage and interpret data from many business activities. ERP provides an integrated and continuously updated view of core business process using common databases maintained by a database management system.)

 

Revenue & profit growth have been incredibly strong in recent quarters. Yet cashflow has been incredibly poor, even negative in many quarters. Trade payables is higher than cash. The proposed rights issue in Nov 2021 spooked investors. Share price dived.

 

Analysts ignored ARBB. But at ARBB forum, there are some promoters over there.

 

Should you trust analysts or the forumers?

 

CONCLUSION:

Peter Lim Tze Cheng mentioned before that investors buying stocks of fundamentally strong companies are value investors, while those buying stocks of companies with little fundamentals are also value investors. It's just that both have different sense of value. One sees value in fundamentally strong companies while some see value in goreng  less-financially sound companies.

 

My definition of value investing means buying into companies that have most of the following features: low share prices, low PE, dividend paying, strong track record of financial performance, share price lower than NAV, coverage by analysts, top funds' names appearing in Top 30 shareholders list, etc.

 

Do I think ARBB is A Really Big Bargain?

 

Avid readers of mine would know the answer. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. The author does not have any interest in the stock listed above.

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Thoughts of the Week: First Week of Dec 2021

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sat, 4 Dec 2021, 7:16 PM


Last week, I mentioned that "Winter is Coming." Those who stay on the sidelines with cash, would have peace of mind

I've also said it is discount time now. I haven't changed my mind.

To me, now is still a good time to collect my favoured stocks for the long termIt's just a matter of different strategies.

Timing the market is not impossible, but rather hard. (Just ask those who took margin finance for AYS on 10 Nov 2021!)

 


It is rather unfortunate that EMS industry has taken over the baton of glove industry as the target for forced labour concerns.

This is a cause for concern.

Either the government has been turning a blind eye to this, or the outsiders are trying to "pick a bone from an eggshell". 

 


2021 is ending. 2022 is coming. When will my stocks start recovering?

Some research analysts have given 2022 forecasts of > 1600 for the KLCI. These analysts seem to expect a better year ahead. 

What do you think?

 

 


My investment themes for 2022 are the basis for my Stockpicks for 2022:

1) Tourism industry.

2) Banking industry. 

3) Breweries. 

4) 5G.  

5) Affordable Properties.

6) Affordable Automotives. 

7) Renewable energy. 

8) Pre-pandemic share-priced glove stocks. 

 

It is true that I prefer large caps due to stability. Large caps are also the preferred stocks when foreign funds return. Large caps generally have stronger financial muscle to provide dividends, which should be higher the following year compared to this year, where business operations have been disrupted by multiple MCOs & stringent SOPs.

 


Names of popular stocks that have plunged continuously in 2021 would have caused trauma to many investors for some time. Perhaps current shareholders of GENETEC & KOBAY can learn a thing or two. They should take a peek at their current levels & be contented they have reached this far. 

 


CONCLUSION:

The narrative from me for next 3 weeks will be the same as this article & my previous 3 articles. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. The author disclaims all liabilities from readers. The author may have interest in some stocks listed above.

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How to Invest Now? Share price keep Falling Down!!

Author: CynicalCyan   |  Publish date: Sat, 27 Nov 2021, 11:59 PM


This week is definitely one of the worst weeks of 2021. 

ATAIMS joined the group of stocks with the biggest Year-To-Date (YTD) losses within a week. A very unenviable record. Many stocks were hit with double digit downs, due to great fear of the new Covid variant. 

Recovery stocks fell. 

Glove stocks improved well.

Even my fabled "The Squirrel" slipped further, despite still being perched very high on the tree.

 


Everyone loves November 11.11 sales. Somehow, many don't view the stock market as having November sales now. 

 

For investors who refuse to see their share prices to drop, albeit temporarily, one should stay away until the coast is clear. (i.e. strong buying momentum technical charts wise or when no more Covid-19 new variant news is out or when economy is fully reopened without restrictions.)

 

But bargain hunters are rubbing their hands in glee now, collecting more stocks at cheaper prices now, in preparation to be sold when the tide turns & the crowd returns in 2022. 


Everyone loves to quote Warren Buffett : "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." Buffett was quoted saying the following as well, "Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

But, in reality, how many investors can do it? 

 

One may argue, Buffett kept a huge chunk of cash during this pandemic & thus we should follow suit.

But by doing so, Buffett has missed the incredible recovery rally of the US stock markets. 


CONCLUSION:

Brace yourselves. Winter is coming.

Don't panic. And wait for the bright, warm spring. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is not tailored financial advice, but mere general stock sharing / observations. Please do further due diligence. 

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