85% of HRC (Shell) refined product sold in Malaysia in 2016
[Above Figure take from Annual report 2016]
From above you can see, in 2016 only 15% is for export purpose. From my point of view, it can be mix of Mogas 92, 95 , diesel and any other product.
Let assume all export is MOGAS 92 leaded 15% x 20% drop= only 3% drop on refined Margin
So, you think 20% drop in crack spread will cause HRC Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 margin drop ??
If Yes, Lim Sin Kiat already cracking your head.
Take note that, Malaysia government have banned Mogas 92 from selling in Malaysia, hence, HRC's 85% product sold in Malaysia should be MOGAS 95 and disel , hence I think the drop in 20% of Mogas 92 will have insignificant impact on HRC’s revenue and profit margin.
Therefore, drop in crack spread MOGAS 92 is nothing to do with Heng Yuan. I am so surprise LIM SIN KIAT can come out 20% drop in Heng Yuan Margin in Coming Quarter report !!! eh…. Do your research lah….
You Might said, how about Increase in Raw material Price (Crude oil price) will lower HRC margin ? see below Figure, Mogas 95 and Crude oil price are positive relationship.
Beside that, another factor is Strengthen of RM against USD may benefit HRC in buying Crude oil
In conclusion, Based on “MY Negative” findings on HRC, all of the “LIM SIN KIAT” supporters should sell the share. Make Heng Yuan Limit down Tomorrow Please !!!
Base on So call “Technical analyst” from Any investment bank, especially RHB INVESTMENT BANK please make SELL CALL on HRC please!!
Drop 20% in MOGAS 92 CRACK SPREAD and you all panic SELL like Heng Yuan have no Tomorrow.
I’m Laughing, Malaysia have so many “Smart Investors”.
IF “Smart investors” Not losing money, how you make money right ? haha
I’m Here Making “SELL CALL” FOR TOMORROW DUE TO CRACK SPREAD MOGAS 92 HAVE DROPING MORE THAN 20% MEAN HRC will Have MORE THAN 20% Drop in Margin !!! You Must believe “LIM SIN KIAT”, if not you will lose money.
LONG LIVE LIM SIN KIAT, Thank for the comment on HRC. Please make HRC limit down !!! Target price down To RM 10.04 !!!!
PART 1 LINK - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/HengYuan_Q4EPS/144377.jsp
