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Author: OTB   |   Latest post: Wed, 4 Mar 2020, 10:19 PM

 

Jaks - Annual net profit of Hai Duong power plant in 2021 is RM 248 million

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Wed, 4 Mar 2020, 10:19 PM


Dear valued members,
 
Background
  1. The consumers in Vietnam are paying USD 8 cents for 1 kwh of electricity from Vietnam government.
  2. I assume profit margin for Hai Duong power plant is around 30%.
  3. Hence I assume net profit margin of USD 2.4 cents for 1 kwh of electricity sells to Vietnam government.
My calculation
I wish to show you the below calculation how I can get RM 248 million.
 
The cumulative power sales of Vinh Tan 1 were 8.194 billion kwh per year based on annual 7,238 utilization hours.

Since Hai Duong power plant is the same spec as Vinh Tan 1, this power plant is built by CPECC and Vinh Tan 1 is built by CEEC. CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC who is also Jaks's partner in JHDP.
 
I will assume the same cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kwh per year.
Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents).
1 USD =  RM 4.20.
Jaks owns 30% stake of Hai Duong power plant.

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.
This profit is tax free.
EPS = 248/651 = RM 0.38

 
The present share price of Jaks is 1.28.
If PER = 10, the target price of Jaks is RM 3.80 in 2021, the potential gain is 197%.
If PER = 15, the target price of Jaks is RM 5.70 in 2021, the potential gain is 345%.

 

FA report   

  1. I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
  2. FY 2019, the profit after tax is 109 million. 
  3. FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 60 million is the construction profit from power plant and 90 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
  4. FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 248 million from the sale of electricity only.
  5. The target price below is based on PER=10.
Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.28 109 0.17 7.64 1.67 30.81%
2020 1.28 150 0.23 5.56 2.30 80.01%
2021 1.28 248 0.38 3.36 3.81 197.62%
 
My 2 cents comments
  1. I feel very confident that Jaks will perform very well in 2020/1.
  2. I recommend Jaks is because of its Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
  3. I take all Malaysian operations of Jaks to be zero value.
  4. I am very confident that the net profit of its power plant can make RM 248 million in 2021.
  5. It is so difficult to find a good stock like Jaks in 2020.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
 
Thank you.
Ooi
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
 
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.

 

Labels: JAKS
  3 people like this.
 
gemfinder Stop,promoting la.. everyday same story..
04/03/2020 10:45 PM
OTB It is not for uneducated person like you to read.

You can talk bad about Jaks with facts and figures.
Keep your mouth shut if you do not have any fact.
04/03/2020 10:53 PM
gemfinder If u talk so,good.. everyone oredi rush to buy oredi la.. shoud be traded at rm4 oredi.. u think u beter than fireign funds ka.. u found out tis gem earlier than foreign funds ka... who dun know ur mother is a pusy
04/03/2020 10:55 PM
gemfinder U tell me how,many articles,come out in one month? Ppl pun fedup... jaks boss pay u comision ka
04/03/2020 10:58 PM
qqq33333333 I am very confident that the net profit of its power plant can make RM 248 million in 2021.
===========

don''t make me laugh, OTB.........


u were also very confident of your convulated calculations during the bubble of HengYuan, Lion Ind.........and , I sure long time readers know many many more similar disasters..................
04/03/2020 10:59 PM
gemfinder U dun talk, ppl pun cakap u mulut busuk
04/03/2020 10:59 PM
TanDavid88 Do not know how to read the report, don't come here to talk 3 talk 4.
04/03/2020 11:00 PM
gemfinder Tis is call,report ka? Low,class,kindergarden only
04/03/2020 11:01 PM
probability Its ironic that at such record low level Interest Rate from Central Banks, market had given such low PE to stocks in Bursa due to extreme pessimism/uncertainty.

A low PE is justified on a stock with a high uncertainty of future earnings - due to perceived risk. As market uses a greater discount factor.

This is justified for country with political instability and general decline in productivity growth - GDP. This is true for Malaysian local businesses now..including Banks.

However:
........

(1) JAKS is not a local company.

JAKS should not be treated as a local company when JAKS power plant is a foreign business in one of the most rapidly growing economy - Vietnam.


(2) JAKS is not in a vulnerable sector in a declining economy.

Market is being blind now as it has not screened JAKS out as a utility sector from other vulnerable sectors in a declining economy.


(3) JAKS is a utility stock with a BOT contract with high degree of certainty in profitability.

The BOT contract assures a stable recurring income for next 25 years.

.............

As such,

JAKS should not be trading at PE lesser than 10 at any point in time.

Given a dividend payout policy of say 50% in the future...the PE should not be anything lesser than 15 (at such low interest rate environment).
04/03/2020 11:03 PM
probability @siongkhoon, please refer DK66 article 'Jaks Resources - A Wild Estimate Based On Abbreviated Results' - its from an exact identical plant with similar contract just started operation about a year ago.
05/03/2020 12:08 AM
trading2019 Thanks OTB for your insight. I have been holding JAKS since last year. Come rain or shine, I will still hold it till the TP is achieved.
05/03/2020 8:51 AM
Tiger66 IBs have not come in because Hai doung has not generating any power yet. IBs very careful and cautious in very of their investment in order to avoid any mistake.
IBs will only coming into JAKS once Hai doung starts operate and sell electricity. That will happen in two months time. May2020
05/03/2020 9:38 AM
Tiger66 I don't think veitnam government will give a 30% margin for Jaks. Most PPA will be around 20% and jaks profit will be at 165 millions with EPS at 25.4. Once JAKS income is stable i believe IBs will rate JAKS at a higher PE of uo to 14 and this will translate into share price of 3.55. This will only happen in 2021. Once one unit start operating, JAKS price will be at 1.77 in two months time and by the end of the year Jaks price will be at 2.5.
05/03/2020 9:56 AM
lcwin Hi OTB yes in perfect conditions it can be achieved.
I think the major reason Jaks is at a low price is Issues regarding perceived Jaks management honesty and transparency.
To me the major shareholder have been diluting and issuing securities that is questionable in nature.
THey only hold very little Jaks shares which makes IB nervous and that goes for me as well.hahaaha... I know most of their holdings are held under nominees which begs the question what is the reason behind this.
Controlling shareholder management seems extremely secretive on the power plant compare with MFCB which have clear precise announcement and costing right from implementation to final COD.
lastly yes I am holding Jaks share bcos even at this price it still a good bet compare with its peer as long as a reasonable discount is given for the above uncertainity. No risk no gain...
konghefattchoy everyone
05/03/2020 9:59 AM
CharlesT Sifu's Miss Universe normally cant last long...will turn into old n ugly lady in 1 to 2 years time...let's c
05/03/2020 10:03 AM
Tiger66 In my humble opinion, the appropriate timing to go in is after second unit of turbine start operating where we already sure the workingability of the turbine from unit one and if there are any problem will be rectified during this period.
In after share price of RM2 is not bad at all with no risk exposure and better margine in a shorter time.
05/03/2020 10:04 AM
OTB Hope this Miss Universe will win the title in 2021.
Thank you.
05/03/2020 10:05 AM
newbie8080 @ OTB
Try using USD2.1cent instead and exchange rate of RM4 to USD1.
Yours is a little too optimistic.
Being conservative in the computation will be better, if earnings are better, it would be a bonus.
My 2 cents.
05/03/2020 10:06 AM
OTB Net profit is RM 206 million.
EPS = 0.316
Target price is 3.16 at PER=10.
Thank you.
05/03/2020 10:10 AM
leapkcfy agreed with Icwin on the Jaks management part. i do not know why the management need to be so scecretive about their Jaks power plant. they should show more transparency like MFCB. But still, i believe Jaks Hai Duong BOT will do will until 2021! the profits is real and vietnam is in serious short of electric supply.. current valuation is too cheap to ignore.. Must be patience to let the real value surface to investors.


lcwin Hi OTB yes in perfect conditions it can be achieved.
I think the major reason Jaks is at a low price is Issues regarding perceived Jaks management honesty and transparency.
To me the major shareholder have been diluting and issuing securities that is questionable in nature.
THey only hold very little Jaks shares which makes IB nervous and that goes for me as well.hahaaha... I know most of their holdings are held under nominees which begs the question what is the reason behind this.
Controlling shareholder management seems extremely secretive on the power plant compare with MFCB which have clear precise announcement and costing right from implementation to final COD.
lastly yes I am holding Jaks share bcos even at this price it still a good bet compare with its peer as long as a reasonable discount is given for the above uncertainity. No risk no gain...
konghefattchoy everyone
05/03/2020 11:32 AM
aikinlai Why got article again. Price stagnant can't rebound.? ..

Already so many article written about jaks...who really interested for long term i sure they already bought it. No longer need promote.
The coming 2nd half of 2019...world economic n listed company financial will be doom due to covid-19...as u see now up n down ..up n down just a fund institutes selling out their holding slow slow.
05/03/2020 7:59 PM
Flintstones Same players from heng yuan la. It is the same OTB + probability gang. Just replace stockraider with DK, you got the same gambling party
05/03/2020 8:03 PM
Flintstones Not to say they wont make money. They might. People who wanna chase must discount the target price given by sifu by 50%. Remember, stockraider hengyuan TP RM 50
05/03/2020 8:07 PM
FoolsGold these guys r real sifus, frm air-cond comfort,thousands km away in KL, can come with rm248m income a yr, +- some minor diff.
Running a power gen. business is all clockwork, once you get the computation right , thks sifus !!
05/03/2020 8:10 PM
OTB Posted by Flintstones > Mar 5, 2020 8:03 PM | Report Abuse

Same players from heng yuan la. It is the same OTB + probability gang. Just replace stockraider with DK, you got the same gambling party

Posted by Flintstones > Mar 5, 2020 8:07 PM | Report Abuse

Not to say they wont make money. They might. People who wanna chase must discount the target price given by sifu by 50%. Remember, stockraider hengyuan TP RM 50
--------------------
Ans :
I recommend Hengyuan at 5.95 and the last one at 8.00.
I told all readers here I had sold all at 17.50.
All readers followed me are laughing all the way to the bank.
All records were still available in I3, you can check and verify them.

Please get your records right.
Please note that I have very good memory.

I recommend stock based on TA and FA, I am very sure FA of Jaks is very good.
You can verify my statement and check the FA.
I am not a gambler, I am an investor and I know what is my probability to win.
Thank you.
05/03/2020 8:30 PM
OTB According to statistic, 90% of investors lost money in stock market.
10% of investors made money in stock market.

It is understood that most of investors will talk bad about Jaks without verify FA of Jaks.
I expect may be 10% of people really put in effort to check the FA of Jaks.

Do your homework before you buy this stock.
Thank you.
05/03/2020 8:35 PM
Tom 这种文章也能上 top article 啊,哈哈哈笑死人了
06/03/2020 10:55 AM
warrantKing "Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents) 1 USD = RM 4.20. "

I think assumption of this profit margin is too high. It is around RM 0.10 per Kwh.
06/04/2020 7:44 PM
i3lurker shhhh

be careful
take care

Very Big Sharks will not be happy

Posted by warrantKing > Apr 6, 2020 7:44 PM | Report Abuse
"Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents) 1 USD = RM 4.20. "

I think assumption of this profit margin is too high. It is around RM 0.10 per Kwh.
06/04/2020 8:01 PM
warrantKing I have no intention to offend anyone. Just express my opinion.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2014/01/29/close-ytl-power1mdb-race-for-2000mw-power-plant-explains-delay-in-award

Refer to link above , most power plant player bid at 25sens to 28sens per kWH .

Assume margin 20% , profit margin should be RM0.05 per kWH

Moreover, YTL Power only show profit margin of around 5% in their report.

So i doubt profit margin of 0.024 USD per KWh is achieveable.
06/04/2020 9:18 PM
cruger12345 OTB . Dear sir, I have been reading your post and your comments in i3 for a while. I would like to subscribe to your service. I just can’t find any link or any guide to it . Could you please guide me how to subscribe
09/05/2020 10:43 AM
karimboss OTB earn people money again?
09/05/2020 10:46 AM
karimboss cruger12345, i warn you be very careful, dont trust anyone. Going to hear Value Investing is better than this trader. So many mentor outside, no need to come to him.
09/05/2020 10:47 AM
OTB Posted by cruger12345 > May 9, 2020 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

OTB . Dear sir, I have been reading your post and your comments in i3 for a while. I would like to subscribe to your service. I just can’t find any link or any guide to it . Could you please guide me how to subscribe
-------------
Dear cruger12345,
Thank you for your good words and trust in me.
Please email me tbooifx@gmail.com
Thank you.
09/05/2020 11:03 AM
cruger12345 Thank you Karimboss. I have been in the market for 20 years. I know what am I doing. Things need to be fair to everyone. Nasty comments flying here and there towards almost everyone. But the only thing for sure is no one is putting a gun on our head to force us to buy or sell. How do you judge it is value investing or trading ? And what is wrong is trading ? I myself trade when I see there is an opportunity. I don’t see there is anything wrong to broaden my view and try to learn more. Thanks for your warning and duly noted.
09/05/2020 11:22 AM
karimboss As i know this guy has been made subcriber loss a lot. Decision is always yours. Good Luck.
09/05/2020 11:31 AM
qqq33333333 Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.

=======
30% is RM 248 million.

Billion $ profits from a 1.2GW plant after depreciation and interest cost??


what is the total GW in Vietnam?


like that whole GDP of Vietnam is make up of power plants..........lol.


There is no way Vietnam will give out this kind of PPA.......
09/05/2020 11:44 AM
qqq33333333 there is the trouble with this OTB...never learns..........what is your track record with convoluted calculations in the past....OTB?

Heng Yuan? Lion Industry? many many others..........
09/05/2020 11:47 AM
qqq33333333 OTB,,...u stupid, those bureaucrats in Vietnam not stupid one.....They are very capable people.
09/05/2020 11:53 AM
stockraider Why people so excited leh ??

Agreement says Vietnam govt willing to give 12% pa gross return in terms of Dong....reasonable return but not exciting mah...!!

Posted by qqq33333333 > May 9, 2020 11:44 AM | Report Abuse

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.

=======
30% is RM 248 million.

Billion $ profits from a 1.2GW plant after depreciation and interest cost??


what is the total GW in Vietnam?


like that whole GDP of Vietnam is make up of power plants..........lol.


There is no way Vietnam will give out this kind of PPA.......


qqq33333333
1993 posts
Posted by qqq33333333 > May 9, 2020 11:47 AM | Report Abuse

there is the trouble with this OTB...never learns..........what is your track record with convoluted calculations in the past....OTB?

Heng Yuan? Lion Industry? many many others..........


qqq33333333
1993 posts
Posted by qqq33333333 > May 9, 2020 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

OTB,,...u stupid, those bureaucrats in Vietnam not stupid one.....They are very capable people.
09/05/2020 11:57 AM
OTB qqq3,
No point to attack me.
You should know your performance for 2020.
I do not wish to quarrel with you.
I measure and I know my performance.
I made > 1 million profit in Hengyuan.
09/05/2020 11:58 AM
qqq33333333 One more thing...electricity tarifs in Vietnam is among the lowest in South East Asia. They need low electricity tarifs to encourage industrialization.


Now, with oil prices this low, coal has already become the most expensive form of energy world wide..........Back in 2010, coal was the cheapest form of electricity.

The world changed a lot since then...................coal plants are closing shop around the world...........In US , marginal cost of coal plants already higher than total costs of alternative energies...That is why US is closing coal plants left right and center...........
09/05/2020 11:59 AM
qqq33333333 u think they are closing coal plants in US due to climate change meh??

In US, they are closing coal plants because of pure economics.....
09/05/2020 12:05 PM
OTB Thank you for your information.
I really want to take a serious look when power plant is ready or after COD.
09/05/2020 12:09 PM
qqq33333333 stockraider > May 9, 2020 11:57 AM | Report Abuse

Why people so excited leh ??

Agreement says Vietnam govt willing to give 12% pa gross return in terms of Dong....reasonable return but not exciting mah...!!
===============

IRR 12 % on capital....not project cost .....I think it is reasonable to assume 10-12% IRR on capital employed, not project costs.......
09/05/2020 12:28 PM
qqq33333333 IRR 12 % on capital....not project cost .....I think it is reasonable to assume 10-12% IRR on capital employed, not project costs.......

Jaks and their advisers has done thousands of hours on projections ...based on their projections Public Bank has stated the IPP will increase their NPV by 50 sen per share over 20 years period..............hahahahaha


Vietnam government is happy with that........
09/05/2020 12:41 PM
qqq33333333 IPP with a lot of government guarantees on costs etc.....IRR 10-12% on capital employed very good already..........still want super profits?


go ask Icon to redo his calculations using 10-12% IRR on capital employed, he will get a some what accurate picture.....

project cost XXXX
less bank borrowings YYY
Capital employed ZZZ
09/05/2020 12:45 PM
qqq33333333 IPP with a lot of government guarantees on costs etc.....IRR 10-12% on capital employed very good already..........still want super profits?


That is possible with YTL and Mahathir in the 1990s.....

Those were ancient times..........U think Vietnam government so bodoh one meh?

look at how they handle the virus..........Vietnam bureaucrats not stupid one................
09/05/2020 12:53 PM

Jaks Resources - The share price of Jaks crossed above new high of 1.51 today

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Mon, 17 Feb 2020, 2:35 PM


Dear valued readers,
 
Please take note that the share price of Jaks crossed all time high of 1.51 convincingly today. I hope the share price of Jaks can close above 1.51 today.
Once the share price can cross 1.51 convincingly today, no more resistance to cross. Sky will be the limit once the "Cup And Handle Chart Formation" is well formed.
Enclosed is the latest technical chart of Jaks for your perusal.
 
Please read the below article appeared in I3investor.com.
 

I have summarised all the estimated values derived from the various valuation methodologies in the table below. 

Methodology Estimates (RM)      

Value Per share 

Average  
Comparison With Mong Duong II 180m - 300m 4.2 - 6.9 5.5
Comparison With MFCB Don Sahong Hydropower  200m - 267m 4.6 - 6.2 5.4
Discounted Cash Flow Method NPV1.9b - 3.4b 2.9 - 5.2 4.0
Based on Vietnam Government Data 160m - 213m 3.7 - 4.9 4.3
Based on Vinh Tan 1 Operating Data 287m - 383m 6.6 - 8.8 7.7
Average 206m - 290m 4.4 - 6.4 5.4

*Based on 30%-40% Ownership in JHDP. Value Per share are calculated based on 651m shares and 15 times price earnings ratio (PE).

Please note that the target price is 5.40, taking 50% discount of the RM 5.40 valuation is RM2.70. There is still more than 80% upside from current price.
 
Below is my latest FA report of Jaks for your perusal.
 
FA report   
  1. I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
  2. FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
  3. FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
  4. FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.
Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.46 113 0.18 7.85 1.80 23%
2020 1.46 150 0.23 5.92 2.33 60%
2021 1.46 250 0.39 3.55 3.89 166%
 

Lack of information on the Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam
I may agree with the feedback of the investors in I3investor.com that there are no coverage of Hai Duong power plant news in Malaysia. All news coverage are translated from Vietnam newspaper and posted in I3investor.com.
I also read all the news from I3investor.com.
 
I had also read all investment bank reports from HL Investment Bank, Affin Investment Bank and Public Investment Bank, they valued the share price of Jaks based on the Malaysian operations in Malaysian only. They hardly mention about big future earning of Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam. It is true that there is a lack of coverage of real earning from Hai Duong power plant.
 
News coverage by Public Investment Bank on MFCB and Jaks
Based on Public Investment Bank report on MFCB's 80% owned Don Sahong power plant in Laos, the projected target price is 5.71 and later further increase to around 6.19.
Please read the below link.
 
Public Investment Bank report on Jaks did not even mention about the potential earning of Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
Please read the below link.
 
You can notice the difference in this coverage is between the sky and the earth. 
The good feedback on MFCB is like the sky whereas the poor coverage on Jaks is like the earth.
I believe if there is a full coverage on the big potential of high earning of Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam, the fair price of Jaks now should be around 2.00. 
 
My recommendation to the management of Jaks
  1. Invite all investment bankers and analysts to attend the meeting when Q4 2019 results are announced in February 2020. Ensure all good news of your Hai Duong power plant real profit are told to all investment bankers and analysts. 
  2. The management of Dialog, Dayang and MFCB holds analyst briefing after announcement of quarter result, I hope the management of Jaks will consider to do it for Jaks this time.
  3. I believe they will arrange an analyst briefing when Q4 2019 results are announced in February 2020.
My comments
  1. I believe the share price of Jaks will follow the price trend of MFCB to go up north once all analysts and Investment bankers are told on the progress of Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
 
Final decision to buy is always yours.
Thank you.
Ooi
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人 
 
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
 
 
 
Attachments area
 

 

 

Labels: JAKS
  12 people like this.
 
OTB Ok.
Will do.

Thank you for your support.
Hope Jaks will be my Miss Universe in 2020 and 2021.
It is so difficult to find a good stock now.
19/02/2020 4:20 PM

Jaks - Cup And Handle Chart Formation will form once the share price of Jaks crossed 1.43

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Sat, 8 Feb 2020, 10:19 PM


Dear valued readers,

Please look at the technical chart of Jaks nicely, do you know that the chart pattern is called "Cup And Handle Chart Formation" ?
 
It is very important for the share price of Jaks to cross 1.43 and closes above 1.43, then the share price of Jaks will skyrocket up the roof once the share price stays above 1.43.
 
Cup And Handle Chart Formation is ready to be formed once the share price of Jaks breaks above 1.43.
 
The unit 1 of the power plant of Jaks in Vietnam is ready to produce electricity commercially in March 2020, unit 2 will produce electricity commercially in May 2020. 
 
I believe foreign funds will come in to buy up Jaks shares after the power plant is producing electricity commercially. 
 
The reasons why the foreign investors buy power plant 6 months ahead
  1. Power generation business is unlike other businesses which depends on supply and demand. There is a big variations on product pricing and its cost. 
  2. Power generation business is a contractual business with pricing and others stated upfront in the contract agreements. 
  3. The risks are project delays and unexpected project costs overrun. 
  4. Big Investors will not give a high PER during the early phases due to the aforesaid risks. 
  5. Once the project runs smoothly and near completion, a higher PER will be accorded. 
  6. I am not surprised a PER of 15 will be accorded to both Jaks and MFCB once it started its earning to sell electricity respectively. 
  7. A steady future income or revenue and cash flow for both Jaks and MFCB with good contractual margins.  
  8. The share price of MFCB moved up north rapidly in December 2019 (one month before the power plant in Laos produces electricity commercially in January 2020). I believe the share price of Jaks will follow the same price trend of MFCB.
I recommend to buy Jaks is due to the good prospect of the Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.  
 
FA report   
  1. I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
  2. FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
  3. FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
  4. FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.
Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.38 113 0.18 7.85 1.80 30.43%
2020 1.38 150 0.23 5.92 2.33 69.04%
2021 1.38 250 0.39 3.55 3.89 181.74%
 
I expect the share price of Jaks will move up north to 1.86 which is 161.8% of Fibonacci Projection. Please refer to the technical chart attached.
 
I believe the share price of Jaks will move up north in next week because Parabolic SAR had shown a buy signal on 7/2/2020.  
 
Please watch up for this stock to explode in the very near future.
 
Final decision to buy is always yours.
Thank you.
Ooi
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人 
 
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
 
Labels: JAKS
  14 people like this.
 
probability Just using a gap of 2 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion spent for the Power Plant and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity Sales....estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Billion to obtain an IRR of 12% .

The IRR of 12% is derived at an extremely conservative annual plant utilization rate of 6500 hrs.

For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs as it was found for Vinh Tan 1..

..........

IRR increases by approximately 1.4% for every 300 hrs rise in utilization.

This was the reason, the IRR was estimated to be on the mid teens at the initial stage of the project before Andy acquired a partner (CPECC).

After that...there was no need to reveal its true potential.
08/02/2020 10:59 PM
VenFx 哇好! 谢谢OTB 的亮点 分享
10/02/2020 9:26 AM
VenFx Pls taking into account for shorterm oubreak from the wuhanv irus also as there are highly possible for Chineese engineers having difficulty to come back to the site after CNY holiday due to the outbreak.
However, the temporary set back may provide opportunity to add position for jaks.
10/02/2020 9:35 AM
OTB I recommend to buy Jaks is due to the good prospect of the Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.

FA report
I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.

Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.38 113 0.18 7.85 1.80 30.43%
2020 1.38 150 0.23 5.92 2.33 69.04%
2021 1.38 250 0.39 3.55 3.89 181.74%

Thank you.
10/02/2020 10:06 AM
Cakes Moon I take in Mr. Ooi advise and buy in Jaks yesterday!
06/05/2020 9:17 AM

According to TA, the share price of Jaks must cross 1.29 in order to move up north

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 10:54 PM


Dear valued readers, 
 
Jaks had been an up trending stock since 8/10/2019, no one can refuted it if you know to read technical chart correctly. Enclosed is the technical chart of Jaks for your perusal.
 
TA reading
  1. The share price of Jaks was breaking new high at 1.43 on 18/11/2019.  
  2. The share price had breakout from "Golden Cross buy signal i.e. 20-day EMA crossed above 70-day SMA" on 8/10/2019 at 0.78 which was very bullish.  
  3. The price is above 20-day EMA, 70-day SMA and 200-day SMA now.
  4. MACD buy signal will appear once the share price of Jaks closes above 1.29. I like this buy signal to appear because the Blue and the Red lines of MACD are staying above zero level to show a stronger momentum.   
  5. Stochastic, Parabolic SAR and Force Index, all showed buy signals which are bullish.
  6. Weekly MACD also showed a buy signal, this technical chart will be bullish for a long time. 
3 important features appeared in the technical chart
I want the following features to appear in the technical chart so that the probability to win on this stock is very high.
  1. The Golden Cross of 20-day EMA to cut above 70-day SMA had been formed on 8/10/2019.
  2. The share price of Jaks to be higher than 70-day SMA to create a 3-month high. 
  3. The Blue and the Red lines of MACD must stay above zero level to show a stronger momentum. 
My comment
  1. In order for the share price of Jaks to move up north, the share price must close above 1.29 and crossed above "Overhead Resistance Trend line" (upper trend line of the ascending triangle).  
  2. The ascending triangle is well formed.
  3. Look at the apex of the ascending triangle, a major decision has to be made before 27/1/2020.
  4. If the share price moves up north above "Overhead Resistance Trend line" (upper trend line of the ascending triangle), the share price will likely to move up north to challenge the all time high price at 1.43. 
  5. If the share price moves down below the support line of the ascending triangle, it means the share price needs more time to consolidate further.
  6. Look at the share price of Jaks is above 20-day EMA, Stochastic Index, Force Index, MACD and Parabolic SAR, all are showing buy signals. I believe the share price of Jaks will cross 1.29 convincingly within next few days.
  7. All indicators are showing buy signals supported by high volume today, I believe the probability for the share price of Jaks to break above 1.29 is very high.
I just tell you what this technical chart is telling me, if you disagree, please ignore this posting.
 

Final decision to buy is always yours.

I take this opportunity to wish all readers in I3 "A Happy And Prosperous Chinese New Year 2020".

Thank you.

OTB
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人

Disclaimer :

Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
 

Labels: JAKS
  3 people like this.
 
Tom 50% 50%....just like gambling
If Hai Duong power plant can't make money = Holland ticket
If The power plant can make a lot of money = otb becomes god, kyy becomes sweet potato

不过为了钱,otb可以和朋友(kyy)玩背后插刀游戏,黑吃黑的世界没有人懂....lol
14/01/2020 12:46 AM
gemfinder Full of gamblers
14/01/2020 3:04 AM
gemfinder Now px is 1.28. Only one sen diference only ka.. so easy hurdle only ka.. y not 139 149 159 169?
14/01/2020 3:08 AM
gemfinder Wat ta analydis is tis.. suda cakap equal x cakap.. tis is so call ta expert ah? Laugh die me lorr
14/01/2020 7:20 AM
AllyAlly Post removed. Why?
14/01/2020 8:51 AM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Mr. Koon claim Foreign Funds queuing to buy 2.6 million Dayang shares at Rm 2.50. The big buyer was from UBS Securities which has its HQ in Zurich. I wonder how he obtain this information?

Anyway foreign buying is a two-edge sword. Remember when Man Group PLC and Numeric Investor LLC dispose their shareholding in Dayang from 14-16 th May 2019, Dayang quickly nose-drive below Rm1.00 by May 23th 2019 when Q1 report EPS of negative 0.43 cents.

The question now how came the foreign fund know the insider information before general public?

As of JAKS I think no foreign or local fund buying big into it yet hence many retail investors are very happy to bet/earn a few cents daily, perhaps beside FA and TA, OTB also need to look into shareholders.

Thank you
14/01/2020 9:04 AM
5354_ Blogs from 2016 until 2019 deleted(except Jaks) no1 noticed? Why?
14/01/2020 9:38 AM
5354_ Today no cross 1.29 not bullish?
14/01/2020 9:43 AM
OTB Dear Sslee,
According to my research, the share price of a stock will eventually move up north owing to the following reasons:-
1. EPS growth - If there is a strong growth, the share price will move up north very rapidly - Passed.
2. The present PAT must be better than the previous year - Passed.
3. Technical chart must show an up trending trend - Passed.

I want to see a growth > 10%, otherwise, I am not interested.

I believe the Hai Duong power plant will enable Jaks to grow exponentially years after years for next 5 years.
Please note that Jaks has an option to buy extra 10% stake in Hai Duong power plant within 3 years of operations.

I believe investors will come in after they see the profit growth in later part of 2020.
I believe the theme play for 2020 will be power plant play. Hence I believe Jaks will perform well in next 3 years.

I wish Jaks will follow the price trend of MFCB.

There is no sure win in stock market, I buy Jaks because it passed my stock selection criteria.
Thank you.
14/01/2020 10:04 AM
Sslee Dear OTB,
May the Year of the Metal Rat bring you Good Luck, Good Health, Good Fortune, Plentiful of Laughter, Happiness, Success and at Peace with Oneself and Others. Happy Chinese New Year 2020

Thank you
P/S: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-01-22-story-h1482896892-Let_s_celebrate_the_coming_CNY_2020_together_with_well_wishing_of_Unity.jsp
22/01/2020 9:04 PM
OTB Dear Sslee,

Wishing you "a happy and prosperous CNY 2020".
Gong Xi Fa Cai.
Good health and plentiful of wealth.
Thank you.
22/01/2020 9:06 PM
mustinvest GONG XI JEN KANG.
05/02/2020 1:24 PM

Jaks - We buy Jaks because of its Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Tue, 31 Dec 2019, 11:25 PM


Dear valued readers,
 
I believe all readers should know that Jaks has a power plant in Vietnam named Hai Duong, it is a joint venture with Chinese firm CPECC. Jaks has 30% stake and CPECC has 70% stake in this power plant. Jaks has an option to own an additional 10% within 3 years of operations. 
 
The power plant
  1. The power plant of Jaks is called Hai Duong power plant. It is located in Vietnam.
  2. Jaks owns 30% of Hai Duong power plant with option to add 10%.  
  3. The Power plant of MFCB is called Don Sahong Hydro power plant. It is located in Laos. 
  4. MFCB owns 80% of Don Sahong Hydro power plant. 
The price trend of the power plant
  1. I had made a detailed study on the trend (technical chart) of power plants in general. 
  2. The stock price will go up slow and steady 6 months before the power plant is selling electricity.
  3. The stock price of MFCB started to move up north since 2/7/2019, the date to sell electricity is 1/1/2020.
  4. The stock price of Jaks started to move up north since 8/10/2019, the date to sell electricity is 1/4/2020.
  5. Enclosed are two technical charts of MFCB and Jaks for your perusal. 
 
The reasons why the investors buy power plant 6 months ahead
  1. Power generation business is unlike other businesses which depends on supply and demand. There is a big variations on product pricing and its cost. 
  2. Power generation business is a contractual business with pricing and others stated upfront in the contract agreements. 
  3. The risks are project delays and unexpected project costs overrun. 
  4. Big Investors will not give a high PER during the early phases due to the aforesaid risks. 
  5. Once the project runs smoothly and near completion, a higher PER will be accorded. 
  6. I am not surprised a PER of 15 will be accorded to both Jaks and MFCB once it started its earning to sell electricity respectively. 
  7. A steady future income or revenue and cash flow for both Jaks and MFCB with good contractual margins.  
Jaks
Please read the below link. 
  1. https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4723  
  2. Q1 2019, Q2 2019 and Q3 2019 results were good. 
  3. I believe the EPS for 2019 is projected to be 0.18.
My stock selection criteria
Below is my stock selection criteria, I want all of you to remember this keyword "UBS GMF". 
Jaks passed 6/6 of my stock selection criteria.
 
TA comes first 
U - Up trending stock -  Cross 200-day SMA - Passed
B - Breakout chart - Break above 0.78 - Passed
S - Sector to focus - Construction or Energy -  Passed (both)
 
FA comes second
G - Growth > 17% per year (2020) -  Passed 
M - Margin of safety > 43% - Passed
-  Forecast current year EPS must be better than the previous year EPS - Passed 
 
Please note that I consider TA ahead of FA in my stock recommendation.
 
TA reading
  1. The share price of Jaks is breaking new high.  
  2. The share price had breakout from Golden Cross at 0.78 which is very bullish.  
  3. The price is above 20-day EMA, 70-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  4. MACD signal is above zero level. 
  5. Stochastic and Force Index showed buy signal which are bullish.
  6. Weekly MACD also showed a buy signal, this technical chart will be bullish for a long time. 
3 important features appeared in the technical chart
I want the following features to appear in the technical chart so that the probability to win on this stock is very high.
  1. The Golden Cross of 20-day EMA to cut above 70-day SMA had been formed on 8/10/2019.
  2. The share price of Jaks to be higher than 70-day SMA to create a 3-month high. 
  3. The Blue and the Red lines of MACD must stay above zero level to show a stronger momentum. 
FA report   
  1. I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
  2. FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
  3. FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
  4. FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.
Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.27 113 0.18 7.23 1.80 41.73%
2020 1.27 150 0.23 5.44 2.33 83.69%
2021 1.27 250 0.39 3.27 3.89 206.14%
 
Compare 3 power plants (using coal-fired power) in Vietnam

Mong Duong 2, Hai Duong , and Vinh Tan 1 are all foreign owned power plants (using coal-fired power) in Vietnam operating under 25 years BOT contracts with capacity around 1,200 MW. All their power purchase agreements were signed around 2012. 

Therefore, terms and conditions of these BOT contracts should exhibit extreme high similarity, if not identical.

The Mong Duong-2 power plant  

The Mong Duong-2 power plant was constructed on a 297ha site in the Mong Duong Power Centre, approximately 200km east of Hanoi, and is located alongside the Mong Duong 1 project.

The site was selected for its proximity to coal mines, availability of transportation infrastructure and cooling water, as well as easy connection to the national grid. Both plants are expected to share common facilities, including the fuel-oil and limestone jetties, as well as cooling water inlet and outlet channels.

Mong Duong-2 is equipped with two 600MW power boilers, the first boilers to be produced domestically in Vietnam, and will use pulverised coal (PC) technology, which will involve the pulverisation of coal at a highly fine degree to spray into the furnace. A flue-gas desulfuriser (FGD) will be installed for this operation.

Mong Duong-2 power plant achieved full commercial operation in 2016 (COD).  

Hai Duong power plant of Jaks

The Hai Duong build-operate-transfer (BOT) power plant, licensed in 2011, is the Malaysian company’s first foray into Vietnam’s power generation secctor. It started construction in March 2016 through a joint-venture between Jaks Resources and China Power Engineering Consulting Group. Golden Keen Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Jaks Resources also secured a $454.5 million EPC contract for Hai Duong BOT power plant. Future earnings look promising as the company has a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) for the power plant. The project is expected to come online in 2020, and it is expected to enjoy recurring concession-type earnings with state-run Electricity of Vietnam from the generation and sale of power under the signed PPA.  

Hai Duong power plant will start to produce and sell electricity in April/May 2020.

Vinh Tan 1 Thermal Power Plant

Located in Vietnam's southern province of Binh Thuan.

The coal-fired power plant includes two 620-MW super-critical generating units owned by a consortium led by China Southern Power Grid, and constructed by CEEC. CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC who is Jaks' partner in JHDP.

The plant, with a total investment of about US$1.76 billion, is the biggest project invested by Chinese companies in Vietnam, as well as the first BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) investment made by China in the country. Both its design and construction adopt Chinese standards. 

Vinh Tan achieved full commercial operation on 27th November 2018 (COD).

How to calculate projected earning of Hai Duong power plant of Jaks

Since Hai Duong power plant and Vinh Tan 1 are built by the same company of China i.e CPECC, it is more accurate to use the earning of Vinh Tan 1 to project the future projected earnings of Hai Duong power plant. These 2 power plants are using the same technology from CPECC. However, I cannot get any information from the profit of Vinh Tan 1 power plant.

How to calculate projected earning of Hai Duong power plant of Jaks (second method) 
I am using the earnings of Mong Duong 2 to project the future projected earnings of Hai Duong power plant since these 2 power plants are using coal-fired power to produce electricity.  
 
Below is the current earning of the Mong Duong 2 power plant for the first 9 months of 2019.

AES owns 51% stake, total profit of US$ 74M for nine months (YTD2019: Q1+Q2+Q3), at 100% stake annualized = RM 812M.

It means Hai Duong power plant of Jaks equal to 30% of RM 812M = RM 812M*30% = RM 243M.

Please note that Q3 2019 result of Mong Duong 2 is very impressive, based on Q3 2019 result (Using coal, apple to apple comparison), if annualized the Pre-tax income at 100% stake will be:

US$ 45/QTR x (100%/51%) x (RM4.2/1.0 US$) x (4 QTR/YR) = RM 1482 Million. 

JAKS at 30% stakes, the earning is RM 444 Million (being tax free for the first few years) 

Please note that Mong Duong 2 plant costs US$ 2.1 Billion and thus having much higher depreciation rate than the US$ 1.87 Billion of Hai Duong. That’s about RM 40 Million earnings difference per annum. The earning of Hai Duong power plant will be more than Mong Duong 2.

My recommendation

  1. The profit of RM 250 million in 2021 is very conservative (please refer to 2 methods of calculation), I will take the lowest number I projected. 
  2. Please note that there is no power plant in the world is losing money because the tariff of electricity sale is fixed at a good price to allow investors to make a good profit margin. 
  3. Among 60 cities and provinces of Vietnam having received FDI between January and November, Hanoi has attracted the largest portion of capital commitments with over US$6.82 billion, accounting for 21.5% of total commitments in the period. 
  4. Hanoi will face shortage of electricity supply due to high FDI flows in the next few years. Electricity will sell like a hot cake.  
  5. I buy Jaks is because of Hai Duong power plant. I can see the future earnings growth of this power plant especially after 2021. 
  6. I like to compare the power plant of Jaks to IPP of YTLPower, the share price of YTLPower increased 790% after IPP started operation. 
  7. Where can you find this type of investment ? Invest RM 560M in this power plant, the payback is about 2 or slightly > 2 years. Then 23 years of guaranteed profit. The famous Chinese saying, "There is no such thing as so many big frogs jumping in the street". 
  8. The general stock price trend of a power plant in the world, investors should buy the stock 6 months ahead of the power plant to produce and sell electricity. Hai Duong power plant will produce and sell electricity in April/May 2020, I believe it is the correct and right timing to buy Jaks now. The present price correction of Jaks served as the opportunity to buy Jaks at an attractive price. No one can buy a stock at the lowest price.  
  9. You must buy and hold Jaks in your 2020 and 2021 portfolio to win big.

Final decision to buy is always yours.

I take this opportunity to wish all readers in I3 "A Happy And Prosperous New Year 2020".

Thank you.

OTB
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人

Disclaimer :

Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
 
 

 

Labels: JAKS
  12 people like this.
 
JensenChin OTB, why not buy Serbadk? Meet your criteria and proven track record of profit
01/01/2020 12:00 AM
DK66 Dear OTB,

Thanks for sharing.
01/01/2020 12:02 AM
OTB Posted by JensenChin > Jan 1, 2020 12:00 AM | Report Abuse

OTB, why not buy Serbadk? Meet your criteria and proven track record of profit

---------------------
Answer :
I am always look at PER < 10.
I will look at it since you recommend it to me.
Thank you.
01/01/2020 12:05 AM
aikinlai When share stagnant at same level so long...here come the article. Pls keep it for ur paid member n no need to be so generous to share it here.
01/01/2020 12:09 AM
pjseow OTB, Thanks for the good write up and sharing.
01/01/2020 12:20 AM
Ricky Kiat Dear OTB, thank for sharing.
01/01/2020 12:20 AM
firehawk Happy And Prosperous New Year 2020
01/01/2020 12:37 AM
VIN3133 OTB, good sharing , thumbs up !!
01/01/2020 1:43 AM
Outliar Here we go, frying it up just in time
01/01/2020 2:10 AM
probability The fact that Koon compared to Mudajaya in India 1000s miles away, instead of Hai Duong close neighbours in the same country such as Mong Duong 2 and Vin Tanh1...clearly shows an ulterior motive.

It shows we are all a child deep inside..controlled by jealousy, pride n arrogance etc..
01/01/2020 8:50 AM
probability Next, i hope they will announce in local media after the successful scheduled steam blow test on 4th Jan

This is a major milestone, its as good as ready for generating power
01/01/2020 9:05 AM
VIN3133 Yes, i do totally agree with Probability.
Hope Jaks's management will do it .
------------------------------------------------
Posted by probability > Jan 1, 2020 9:05 AM | Report Abuse

Next, i hope they will announce in local media after the successful scheduled steam blow test on 4th Jan

This is a major milestone, its as good as ready for generating power
01/01/2020 9:21 AM
birkincollector while i believe in long term Jaks will be great...and that should be proven by quarter reports in 2020 onwards......what i dont understand is why OTB need to keep proving himself right eagerly non stop.......as a subscriber for years i have never received so many articles and updates from him regarding a counter, except for JAKS.....Mr OTB, let it move up slowly if ur very confident of it.......im pretty sure this is your personal feud with KYY to prove ur better than him.....anyway, if got confident, just wait
01/01/2020 9:45 AM
leapkcfy Good sharing
01/01/2020 10:02 AM
paperplane Too many ppl buy too much =overvalued
01/01/2020 10:07 AM
gemfinder Shouting like a begger
01/01/2020 10:11 AM
Equityengineer This year will be Jaks year.
01/01/2020 10:35 AM
shortinvestor77 No dividend.
01/01/2020 11:18 AM
shortinvestor77 In July 2018 it was reported that construction of the plant was 30% complete.[11]

In June 2019 the completion date for Unit 1 was delayed to 2020 and the completion date for Unit 2 was delayed to 2021 in the Ministry Of Industry And Trade's report on the implementation of the revised seventh Power Development Plan (PDP7).[12]
01/01/2020 11:21 AM
shortinvestor77 https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Hai_Duong_Thermal_Power_Plant
01/01/2020 11:21 AM
shortinvestor77 http://vepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/MOIT_Report_58_BC_BCT.pdf
2 Hai Duong thermal
power plant
2x600 BOT 2020-
2021
2021 Delayed by 1 year
01/01/2020 11:25 AM
shortinvestor77 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2019-12-31-story-h1481977960-JAKS_investors_must_not_buy_in_anticipation_of_future_profit_Koon_Yew_Y.jsp
01/01/2020 1:42 PM
yesyesyes When ppls start to promote , that’s mean it reaches fish tail .. no more fish meats to eat .. I wish I’m wrong larrrr.. cheers ..
01/01/2020 2:17 PM
yesyesyes Wrong in term of ppls start eat fish from tail to head larr .
01/01/2020 2:18 PM
PureBULL ... Dear ALL i3 members,
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020
W 2020 vision to all great winning stocks at right timing on KLSE ...

Could some1 enlighten this?
IPP was once the best of the BEST deals from beend.
WHY r ytlpower n malakoff so so v low in prices now ?
01/01/2020 3:07 PM
PureBULL ... Aiyo dear probability,
I wish you ALL the BEST on KLSE...

my.ah.ni.hard on me lah !

I do buy the right Stocks at Perfect right timing most of the times every yr.
I oso have BAD stocks to cut loss. to cut is always v difficult.
Final cut is the DEEPEST, u know !
01/01/2020 3:26 PM
Trouble Huat kyy sour grape. haha
01/01/2020 3:28 PM
PureBULL ... It's perfectly OK w uncle KYY's opinion.

My guru said:

Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.

Bernard Baruch, a yahudi n adviser to 3 US presidents
01/01/2020 3:32 PM
OTB I told him not to buy Jaks in 2017 is correct.
Listen to me would have saved him at least one hundred million.
I refused to recommend Jaks for him in 2017/8, he attacked me continuously non-stop.

Listen to me to buy Jaks in October 2019, he would have made a lot of money.
I also believe that the share price of Jaks would have skyrocketed up the roof to the sky.

I am very sincere to help him, I feel very disappointed on this matter.
Time will tell who is right.
No point argues here.

Thank you.
01/01/2020 3:40 PM
PureBULL ... The BEST motivational story ever told n most popular in the world is :

ACRES OF DIAMOND IS IN YOUR BACKYARD

This story is so encouraging n empowering in all facets of human LIFE ...
01/01/2020 5:16 PM
investor77 Thks for sharing Mr Ooi Teik Bee. Hope Jaks wont be like Heng Yuan.
01/01/2020 5:55 PM
PureBULL ... For now, JAKS looks GOOD.
Pls stay steady eddy in price, then the next daily macd gc or better at 2nd or 3rd gc = the v BEST Right Timing to sailang ...

1st to protect our back, learned from playing afool(260k rm lesson) w hengyuan,
The worst selling pt (x2, y2) = C < week ema 18

Loss, we can't blame kyy or anybody.
We learn deeply from mistake.
01/01/2020 6:39 PM
probability For those who are still unaware on the official news earlier in Sept 5, 2019:

https://baohaiduong.vn/chinh-tri/dong-chi-nguyen-manh-hien-lam-viec-voi-chu-dau-tu-du-an-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-115554

extract from above translated to english:

At the meeting, the business representative briefed the provincial leaders about the progress of the project. BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has 2 units, capacity of 600MW. As planned, by March 3.2020, the No. 1 generator began to generate electricity. By May 6.2020, the plant will be completed commissioning, officially generating electricity into the national grid.

.......

since then there has been considerable progress on unit 1 where the steam blow test is now scheduled on 4th Jan
01/01/2020 9:30 PM
gemfinder http://koonyewyin.com/2020/01/01/jaks-investors-must-not-buy-in-anticipation-of-future-profit/
01/01/2020 10:12 PM
tokohM is KYY already torn face with OTB? due to what reason?
02/01/2020 8:39 AM
Icon8888 KYY sour grape

So old already still so childish
02/01/2020 8:42 AM
probability They are just 2 months away from power generation (not to the grid)...and 4 months away to the grid (commercial operation) for unit 1.

as earlier they targeted 3rd March (as per above news on 5th Sept).

..................................

Considering the steam blow test date... i would say an improvement of about at least 2 weeks now..
02/01/2020 9:01 AM
OTB Posted by tokohM > Jan 2, 2020 8:39 AM | Report Abuse

is KYY already torn face with OTB? due to what reason?

Answer :
No. We are still friend.

I remember the person who helps me for life.
I will be grateful to him even he attacks or bad mouth me.
I am a typical China man, I am from Chinese school.
I drink water, I must remember the source of water.

I avoid to attack him until he crossed the line.
I did not initiate any attack at any person in I3.
I believe I behave myself very well and I act very gentlemanly.
I am always very calm and I always believe in fair play.
Talk with facts and figures, never want to harm any person in I3.

I recommend any stock without any favour or fear.
I always remember the below Chinese words.
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
I used it as my code of conduct in my writing or recommendation of stocks to my followers.

Thank you.
02/01/2020 9:32 AM
JensenChin Thank you OTB. Serba is good quality stock, please consider after you study.
02/01/2020 1:41 PM
JensenChin Those who attack on Jaks must remember OTB recommend Jaks when it was below RM1. Be grateful instead of attack him. He didn’t do anything wrong
02/01/2020 1:42 PM
OTB Dear JensenChin,

Please email me, I will give you FA report of Serba.
I cannot mention anything here.
Please find out my email in I3.
Thank you.
02/01/2020 2:54 PM
alibazil90 Support!
03/01/2020 6:59 PM
Trouble Huat FA mostly win in long term. i also earn from jaks. thanks otb
04/01/2020 7:57 PM
OTB Thank you Trouble Huat for your good words.

According to the latest input, Hai Duong power plant will produce and sell electricity 2 months earlier. Unit 1 will produce and sell electricity on 3/3/2020 and unit 2 will produce and sell electricity on 6/5/2020 respectively.
I expect the share price of Jaks to explode in Feb/Mar 2020 time frame. Hope the share price of Jaks will follow the same trend as MFCB. The share price of MFCB broke new high in December 2019, one month before the power plant is ready to produce and sell electricity in January 2020.

The earnings of the power plant will be captured in Q2 2020 quarter result. We will review the performance of this power plant in August 2020.

Thank you.
04/01/2020 9:28 PM
OTB Posted by leapkcfy > Jan 6, 2020 5:16 PM | Report Abuse

Latest update by the local?

andry_ong https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=156538069016647&id=108...
Latest project update in Veitnamese, basically the 1st unit will operate 1st week of April and will join to national grid on the 15may2020.

Posted by ok > Jan 6, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

and estimated 7.5 billion kwh output annually.

----------------------------------------
Ans :
Please refer to DK66's article below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-10-02-story228...

I just take a quick calculation on the net profit of Hai Duong power plant.
8.094 billion KWH = RM310 million.
7.5 billion KWH = RM 310/8.094*7.5 = RM 287 million.

Net profit for 2021 (Full production and 30% stake) = RM 287 million.
EPS = 287/643 = 0.446
Base on PER = 10, the target price of Jaks should be RM 4.46 in 2021.

This figure is even higher than my initial estimated net profit of RM 250 million in 2021.

Special thanks to DK66.
I always praise DK66 because he is the most knowledgeable person on Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
I admire his hard work and respect his kindness to share his knowledge in I3.
I never buy Jaks in 2016/7/8 until 8/10/2019, I buy Jaks because I trust DK66's report.
I spent almost 4 days to really digest all his reports, I am convinced that his postings are the most accurate one so far.
Please do not attack him unless you can prove that you are better than DK66.

Thank you.
06/01/2020 8:32 PM
OTB I recommend to buy Jaks is due to the good prospect of the Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.

FA report
I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.

Year Price PAT EPS PER Target price Gain %
2019 1.38 113 0.18 7.85 1.80 30.43%
2020 1.38 150 0.23 5.92 2.33 69.04%
2021 1.38 250 0.39 3.55 3.89 181.74%

Thank you.
10/02/2020 9:57 AM
Jengacam2 actually nobody believe KYY due of bad reputation, he always like to talk history
10/02/2020 9:58 AM
Icon8888 KYY always boasted about his founding of IJM, Gamuda etc

but if you dig deeper, you will discover that he sold them long long time ago when they are still tiny company

those companies subsequently grow into huge success

but their success have got nothing to do with him

he can fool ordinary people, but he cant fool seasoned corporate people like me and OTB
10/02/2020 10:10 AM
Huat1 Let make JAKS hit 1.50 today.
10/02/2020 10:22 AM
Huat1 Let jeolous people more envious
10/02/2020 10:24 AM

My strategy and my performance in I3investor.com

Author: OTB   |  Publish date: Fri, 30 Dec 2016, 9:17 PM


Dear valued readers in I3,
 
The purpose to post this article here is to help those readers who are not doing well in stock market. Those readers who had done well, please ignore this article. Those haters who want to attack me, I just ask you for a favour, please leave me alone. 
 
I had been using the below strategy since 2009, I had been doing well and I made money consistently year after year. I just hope and wish to share my strategy to those readers who are not doing well in stock market, hope that they can perform well in 2017. If you disagree with my strategy, please ignore this article here.
 
My stock selection criteria
 
Below is my stock selection criteria, I want all of you to remember this keyword "UBS GMF". 
 
TA comes first 
U - Up trending stock 
B - Breakout chart 
S - Sector to focus (cross 200 days SMA) 
 
FA comes second
G - Growth > 10% per year 
M - Margin of safety > 30% 
F - Forecast current year EPS must be better than previous year EPS 
 
After using the aforesaid strategy for many years, below are my performance records in I3.
 

Assume I started with RM 100,000.00. 

2013 - 104% ROI - My total value is now RM 204,000.00. 
2014 - 61% ROI - My total value is now RM 328,440.00. 
2015 - 129% ROI - My total value is now RM 752,128.00. 
2016 - 22% ROI - My total value is now RM 917,596.00. 

I end up with almost 8 times my original investment value. CAGR or Compounded Annual Growth Rate is 74.05% over the period of 4 years which is very impressive. 

The most important thing in investing is consistency, you need to practise a good strategy in order to achieve a consistent result. I do not wish to boast my outstanding performance here, I wish to convince those readers who are not doing well in stock market to learn up this strategy in order to make money from stock market.

Please read the below posting from Icon8888 :-

Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 27, 2016 12:11 PM Report Abuse 

I don't defend OTB just because he is my friend. I defend him because I concur with his way of combining FA with TA. I revolutionaries my stock picking style by learning from him the idea (but I don't follow him 100% in style). My return this two years improved a lot because of that.

Those who want to learn this strategy to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at tbooifx@gmail.com

Final decision is always yours.

Thank you.

Ooi

Disclaimer :

Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.

Final decision to buy is always yours.

 
  8 people like this.
 
donfollowblindly Your 2016 result everyone can see but you not no 1. Can you show proof claim you get 104% in 2013, so on so forth.
30/12/2016 9:23 PM
VenFx This is worth than a Mil. Sharing.
Tq. Otb sir, for your unselfishness .
30/12/2016 9:24 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Good article but ignore because I done well in 2016
30/12/2016 9:27 PM
VenFx Hahaha ! 这是 赢诀 的 根本, 错不了。
上了 贼船 , 如何 降低 输算, 买少见少 啊 。
30/12/2016 9:33 PM
VenFx 2016年, 有所领悟

贼船 必有所 蛛丝马迹
2017 再把 工力会提升。
海望 各方 师父 多赐教
谢谢
30/12/2016 9:42 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Follow otb earned 22%
Follow kyy lose 15%

So...the dirrefent of these 2 sifu = 37%

Kyy...haiz...shame shame
30/12/2016 9:45 PM
CharlesT If u sell when koon asks u to buy n u buy when koon asks u to sell u may b able to make 15% return a year...
30/12/2016 9:47 PM
VenFx Haha, Charles T bro.
 Don't get me wrong, I didn't imply to any person. 
I meant the latest bet on Melewar. It was completely a fail decision.
I do learn a lot from u bro. Sometimes, we need to move on even though we have full have with lousy card. 
I categories it, Flipping Through an Bad Investment.
Hopefully, got the term suitably.
30/12/2016 9:54 PM
Trump From the second-last to no.7. I just can say wow, very impressive.
30/12/2016 10:18 PM
Jeffbkt Managing 100k and 500k and 1 mil fund is very different. If you have 1 million do you put all your money in stock market whiole year long? So the the % of yearly performance cannot bee used to apply to the total fund one have.
30/12/2016 10:54 PM
CharlesT 4 years of proven track records...shows sifu real kungfu...
30/12/2016 10:59 PM
Icon8888 At the beginning of the year, he was scolded like a dog. I think those people owes him an apology
30/12/2016 11:01 PM
stockmanmy Being such a high profile personality and bottom three at one time, I don't think so .....



Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 30, 2016 11:01 PM | Report Abuse

At the beginning of the year, he was scolded like a dog. I think those people owes him an apology
30/12/2016 11:30 PM
curious2 If i3 stock competition result is true so OTB richer than KYY?

Posted by John Lu > Dec 30, 2016 09:45 PM | Report Abuse
Follow otb earned 22%
Follow kyy lose 15%

So...the dirrefent of these 2 sifu = 37%

Kyy...haiz...shame shame
30/12/2016 11:38 PM
stockmanmy best treat this as game of monopoly money
30/12/2016 11:40 PM
huat021 Thank you OTB , keep it up the good work. Wish you Happy New Year 2017 :)
30/12/2016 11:41 PM
ezobear Well done OTB! Your ROI is a remarkable achievement!
31/12/2016 3:43 AM
ktsk88 Everyone have their own investment strategy and winning formula be it in short term 1 year horizon or longer horizon.

So comparing it in a very short period of time is not a fair result, in my opinion.............it is much on lucks.
31/12/2016 8:44 AM
ktsk88 Those punters that dare to buy KFM at 0.09sen and reaps a very good profits in 3 days when it went all the way to 0.23sen could have beaten all the players here whom keep monitoring and changing stocks for the whole 2016.
31/12/2016 8:46 AM
hpcp Good job OTB. We appreciate your sharings at i3
31/12/2016 12:08 PM
gohku Hi Mr OTB,

This young Gohku, i have been investing for 4 years on my own.
I have learn alot from sifu like you, icon, paperlane, up & down, kchong,kyy, charles T, stockraider and calvin tan.

thanks for your good contributions.
31/12/2016 12:44 PM
K.H Good
31/12/2016 12:51 PM
Ryan88 I think malaysia stock market no real shifu besides cold eyes. The rest only show result withink these few good years. Even i didnt invest in stock, property also can gain better roi than this 100% 200% 300%.

Lol
31/12/2016 3:05 PM
cloudtrip He continuously finding new subscriber Fee, Do you think he make such money in stock?
31/12/2016 4:17 PM
OTB Please set up one to compete with me.
Why so jealous about me ? Why continue to bad mouth me ?
Please read your postings, all aim to attack me.
What is the intention ? May be I take away all his business.
Thank you.
Ooi
31/12/2016 4:28 PM
OTB Posted by Bizfuneng > Dec 26, 2016 12:59 PM | Report Abuse

Haha Mr Ooi....what is wrong with cari makan if u hv the capability. It is a win win situation. If winning who cares to pay ur consultation fee as u work for it on spending time to do research.

Keep the good work helping more people to earn more.

Happy & Prosperous New Year!
31/12/2016 4:28 PM
OTB Posted by IamGoogle > Dec 21, 2016 04:14 PM | Report Abuse

I have no idea why so many people attack OTB, may be it is part of the business nature? Anyway, congratulation to OTB.
31/12/2016 4:30 PM
OTB Posted by Op3rs > Dec 29, 2016 06:40 PM | Report Abuse

otb sifu too good
as i always say, ignore those haters.. they are just jealous
wish you a healthier and wealthier year ahead!
31/12/2016 4:32 PM
VenFx " How to find another Blossoming Stock " like ( INARI ) ?

ANNUALISED CARG : 89.08%
Means Total Retutn of : 1143.16% from Jan2013 till Dec2016 (Div. Incld.)

( hardly find one, could that be EG, JHM ? )

IF SO, WHAT ARE THE MUST HAVE CRITERIORS ???
WHISH SIFUS HERE , SHED SOME LIGHT :)

Does above success scenario are because of :

1)Inari has Insas as their funder ?
2)Inorganic growth by almost X 3 times the rev & profit, post RTO ?
3)Does Inari must strike rite into the sweet spot
( smart/portable device tech ) ?
4) WHAT I HV MISSED ? PLS. ENLIGHTHEN ME, TQ !
31/12/2016 4:48 PM
VenFx Would Bros & Sis and respectable Sifus sharing your valuables finding to the above ?
Appreciate for any of your facts or finding. Tq !
31/12/2016 4:50 PM
saydon Holland sifu hard selling again...want to invite ppls to go holland in 2017. Why got so many hater, better reflect and don't curse ppls to go commit suicide at it might go both way.
31/12/2016 8:38 PM
Pakcik Saham OTB is kind person try to educate person how to make money and chose diffrent stock at KLSE with his article. I also agree with the investment method by OTB is common sense even iam 70% FA and 30% TA. Thanks for your contribution..happy new year OTB
31/12/2016 10:57 PM
paperplane Mr.OTB when you going to show your picks? I like to study your pick
31/12/2016 11:09 PM
OTB Posted by saydon > Dec 31, 2016 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

Holland sifu hard selling again...want to invite ppls to go holland in 2017. Why got so many hater, better reflect and don't curse ppls to go commit suicide at it might go both way.

Ans : Please be advised that you do not simply gamble in stock market and cannot afford to pay contra losses. You do not have any special skill and you still refused to learn from any sifu here. A stupid idiot like you is very dangerous to be involved in stock market.
Please be advised that if you commit suicide, you will go to hell.
Please do not say I did not remind you.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by saydon > May 28, 2016 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

All his subscribers cry no tears..

Posted by saydon > May 28, 2016 05:40 PM | Report Abuse

How they feels when he took them to holland and the sifu keep boasting how good he is...no shame.

Ans :
I still like to repeat my records in I3.
2013 - 104% ROI
2014 - 61% ROI
2015 - 129% ROI (I am the champion in 2015)
2016 - 22% ROI (until 30/12/2016)

Ans :
All my subscribers are laughing all the ways to the bank if based on aforesaid records.
Reader here talks with facts and figures, 2016 is not ended, you have no right to condemn me. You are telling lies that my portfolio cannot perform.
Chinese saying, you are throwing stones into the well where I was inside. You take this opportunity to condemn me, otherwise, you have no chance. A stupid idiot like saydon will do this.

Please look into the mirror how good you are first before you attack me in I3. You do not have any record to show, at lease I have very good records to show in I3.
Thank you.
Ooi
31/12/2016 11:44 PM
paperplane Happy New Year. Mr.Otb
01/01/2017 12:11 AM
OTB Happy new year, paperplane2016.
01/01/2017 12:13 AM
paperplane Mr.Ooi, can share a peek into your share picks not? One or two...hehe
01/01/2017 1:11 AM
OTB saydon,
Do you feel shame to attack me ? Please note that you do not have any good record to show you are better than me except you are very good in telling lies about me. The more you attack me, you will suffer more contra losses until you are bankrupt like your good friend.

I had stated my good records in I3, you still want to argue with me. You are as good as telling lies here and you talk without any fact and figure.

To all readers in I3, you are the real Holland sifu. You continue to lose in stock market, how to pay all contra losses ?
Please ensure you pay your contra loss fast, otherwise, you will be sued for bankruptcy. I do not wish to remind you again.

Please note that the more you bad mouth me, you will suffer more contra losses until you are bankrupt like your good friend. Please be reminded, final decision is always yours.

Thank you and please take care about your contra losses.
Ooi
01/01/2017 1:32 AM
gogogogo Mr OTB, do you mind to elaborate then following criterias of your strategy

S - Sector to focus (cross 200 days SMA) -> the close price of the stock cross its 200 days SMA OR the average share price of all the shares in the same sector cross its 200 days SMA.

G - Growth > 10% per year -> are you referring to profit growth?
M - Margin of safety > 30% -> how do you derive margin of safety.
F - Forecast current year EPS must be better than previous year EPS -> how do you get the Forecast current year EPS

Thanks and happy new year!
01/01/2017 7:59 AM
OTB Dear gogogogo,

S - Sector to focus (cross 200 days SMA) -> If the stock you selected is from Construction sector, I prefer the Construction Index to cross 200 days SMA. According to TA, cross 200 days means the index is up trending.

G - Growth > 10% per year -> EPS or EBIT growth.

M - Margin of safety > 30% -> (Target price - current price)/Target price *100% > 30%. It means you are buying this stock at 30% discount to the target price.

F - Forecast current year EPS must be better than previous year EPS -> It means you must forecast EPS of 2017 must be better than EPS of 2016. It needs some skill to do this forecast.

Hope it explains.
Thank you.
Ooi
01/01/2017 8:57 AM
gogogogo Thanks a lot for your explanation, Mr OTB. Yes, I got better idea now.
01/01/2017 4:19 PM
moneySIFU Me too, I have no idea why someone deserved to scold AND/OR to be scolded, may be it is part & partial of life. But whatever it was, be a civilized person whenever & wherever afterall.

---------------------
Icon8888 At the beginning of the year, he was scolded like a dog. I think those people owes him an apology
30/12/2016 23:01
01/01/2017 6:41 PM
LouisLim OTB, you are really great and recognized sifu in i3, I believe most of us are supporting you except just small portion who is jealous and like to talk something not good about you.

About your TA and FA analysis, UBS and GMF. I have some question about U and B.
U - Up trending stock, is it means the stock above 200 SMA?
B - Breakout chart, is it means cross above 20 EMA?

Thank you

TA comes first
U - Up trending stock
B - Breakout chart
S - Sector to focus (cross 200 days SMA)

FA comes second
G - Growth > 10% per year
M - Margin of safety > 30%
F - Forecast current year EPS must be better than previous year EPS
03/01/2017 10:09 AM
OTB Dear LouisLim,

About your TA and FA analysis, UBS and GMF. I have some question about U and B.
U - Up trending stock, is it means the stock above 200 SMA?
B - Breakout chart, is it means cross above 20 EMA?

Ans : U - is correct.
B - It means it crossed a major resistance, hence it is called breakout.

Thank you.
Ooi
03/01/2017 7:08 PM
LouisLim OTB, thank you very much for your answer. Appreciate that.
03/01/2017 10:23 PM
ravih Dear Ooi Teik Bee,

Keep up the good work!

I was wondering..if you could help me out- kindly suggest where I could I buy or subscribe end of day data (EOD) for my Metastock. Appreciate your input.
Thanks and Happy New Year.
05/01/2017 1:22 PM
paperplane Mr. Ooi, I am sad you not joining this year. I hope you can reconsider.
You good doing will bring you more prosperity. Final decision is yours.

Gong Xi Fa Chai and Happy new year. Every one huat huat huat ah
05/01/2017 1:38 PM


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