Highlights

Important time-tested proven market rules or tips

Author: OTB   |   Latest post: Wed, 12 Aug 2020, 11:59 PM

 

Projected PAT in Q1 2021 result of Supermx

Author:   |    Publish date:


Dear valued readers,

 
 
Q4 2020 result of Supermx        
Revenue = 929 million, Monthly Revenue    310
PBT = 519 million, Monthly PBT     173
Monthly Manufacturing cost        137
From analyst briefing slides dated 11/8/2020    
Assume monthly manufacturing cost increases 15%   158
Assume additional 3.3 billion capacity increase (15%).   356
July month price increases 15%      
Revenue = 356*1.15         409
PBT =  356*1.15-158         204
August month price increases 30%       
Revenue = 409*1.30         532
PBT =  409*1.30-158         374
September month price increases 30%       
Revenue = 532*1.30         692
PBT =  532*1.3-158         534
             
Total PBT (Q1 2021)         1112
Less 25% tax         278
PAT           834
PAT 120 million carried forward from Q4 2020     120
Total PAT           954
             
PAT = 400 million, share price = 21.20      
PAT = 954, The target price        50.56
 
My strategy
  1. I wish to share this article with all readers in I3. Please advise me if you spot any mistake on my part.
  2. During the analyst briefing after the Q4 2020 result is out, all analysts are informed that 150 million PBT or 120 million PAT was not captured in time for the Q4 2020 result. This amount is carried forward to Q1 2021.
  3. In the month of July 2020, the selling price of the glove increased by 15%.
  4. In August and September 2020, the selling price of gloves increased by 30%.
  5. I believe Q1 2021 result will be better than Q4 2020.  
  6. The most important criteria for the share price of stock to go up north is the growth of PAT or EPS. There is a strong growth in PAT in Q1 2021 result.  
  7. According to my calculation, PAT in Q1 2021 result is 954 million. The target price is 50.56.
  8. The share price of Supermx closed at 18.88 today, the target price is 50.56. The potential gain is 168%. 
  9. I believe the Q1 2021 result will be released in October 2020. 
  10. There is a bonus issue of 1 to 1. The ex date is 7 September 2020. Buy and hold to take up this bonus issue.
  11. You will get 1,000 of treasury shares for 45,000 shares held as dividend payment after bonus issue ex date.
  12. I recommend holding on to the share until Q1 2021 result is out. You will get your bonus issue and you will be able to sell at a higher price since Q1 2021 is supposed to be very good.  
  13. The share price of Supermx will explode when Q1 2021 result is released in October 2020 like the share price of Carepls.
  14. I have checked many times, I believe there is no error at all. Please wait for the Q1 2021 result to be released and let us verify what is the true PAT.
  15. Dumb ... dumb hold this stock will be a better strategy not to miss out in this super bull run.
  16. Based on my study, the best month to buy stocks in KLSE is July/August month, usually the share price will go up until December month provided the trend of these stocks is up trending.
  17. You need to buy and hold Supermx for 5 months in order to win big.
  18. My strategy to buy and hold Supermx until Christmas 2020. 
  19. I strongly believe Supermx will be incorporated into FBMKLCI index link stocks at the end of 2020. Many fund managers will buy Supermx into their portfolios.
  20. I believe the share price of Supermx will outperform at the end of 2020 once Supermx is inside the FBMKLCI index link stocks.
 
The final decision to buy is always yours.
 
Thank you.
Ooi
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
 
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

 

Share this
Labels: SUPERMX

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
SUPERMX 8.74 +0.15 (1.75%) 27,854,900 

  19 people like this.
 
supersaiyan3 Fair enough.
13/08/2020 12:45 AM
Picanto 1) Revenue of 929mil cant just divided by 3, the ASP would have increased 15% every month for Q4'20. Based on that factor, revenue for Jun was 350mil, July is +15% from this amount.

2) You added additional cost for 3.3bil capacity, actually 2.2bil already included in Q4'20 cost. Additional cost for Q1'21 is only for 1.1bil capacity and this should be for Aug and Sep only. Additional capacity also came with additional revenue, this wasn't shown in your revenue number for Aug and Sep. :)

3) Effective tax rate is normally lower than the 24% statutory rate.. can use 22%.

4) Not sure how you get the 30% ASP increase for Aug and Sep but if I use 15% for the Jul, Aug and Sep, and with the changes above, i get approximately 1bil PAT as well.

5) Target price: PAT 1bil *2 + 1bil *0.8 * 2 =3.6bil (assume same ASP in Q2, ASP drop 20% in Q3/4). Take PE20 for 2021: 3.6bil/1.3bil shares*20= RM55
13/08/2020 1:11 AM
greedy44444 Vaccine coming soon...still doing the unnecessary calculation. Just make sure you don't earn less or loss money.
13/08/2020 1:30 AM
OTB Let us go back to history on glove rallies during the H1N1 pandemic.

When we look back at H1N1 pandemic history, the glove rally was over when WHO said the H1N1 pandemic was over/under control. This was after 18 months H1N1 pandemic was discovered.
---------------------------------------
FDA approved 4 vaccine since 15 September 2009,
Topglov and Supermx still sustain profit growth till mid of 2010.
The share price of Topglov was peak in July 2010.
The share price of Supermx was peak in April 2010
-------------------------------------------

I hope history repeats itself, even vaccine is available in 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Topglov and Supermx still sustain profit growth for another 9 months after vaccine approved by WHO. The present vaccine of Russia is not approved by WHO, need sometime for WHO to approve it.
Follow history, the share price of Supermx and Toplov will peak in April or July 2021 like what had happened in H1N1 pandemic in 2009.

Thank you.
13/08/2020 6:46 AM
CharlesT Posted by chopstick > Aug 13, 2020 6:41 AM | Report Abuse

comong la, russian vaccines hoax or no hoax , it doesn't matter , it enough to shake me off, next will be US and China with much trusted announcement , another panic selling, please face the facts, consoling oneself in this forum is just like hippo.
13/08/2020 6:51 AM
OTB Dear Picanto,
Additional capacity also came with additional revenue, this wasn't shown in your revenue number for Aug and Sep.
Ans : The revenue was increased by 15%. Instead of 310, I used 356.

Assume 954 million in all quarters, PAT for Q1 2020 = 954+834*3 = 3.456 billion
EPS = 3456/1360 = 2.54
Per = 20, the target price = 50.82.

Thank you.
13/08/2020 6:53 AM
CharlesT all fund managers ah pek ah soh etc sitting on few hundred percent paper gain...now knowing more vaccine will be out soon by hook or by crook...

what to do next? wait for few hundred percent gain more?
13/08/2020 6:54 AM
CharlesT tp 50?

wait for alien to buy fm u ah
13/08/2020 6:55 AM
CharlesT anyway thanks to yr great buy call at 3.70+ in may....more than 500% return in 3 months time...

apa mahu lagi
13/08/2020 6:57 AM
CharlesT do u think trump will approve their vaccine b4 election in Nov?

i can bet chicken rice with you
13/08/2020 7:00 AM
OTB Posted by CharlesT > Aug 13, 2020 6:55 AM | Report Abuse

tp 50?
-----------------
The calculation ended up in this way.
Do not use 50 if you do not like it.
The bottom line I try to say is next quarter result is still good.
The facts are there that PAT is still growing in Q1 2021.

I hope history repeats itself, even vaccine is available in 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Topglov and Supermx still sustain profit growth for another 9 months after vaccine approved by WHO. The present vaccine of Russia is not approved by WHO, need sometime for WHO to approve it.
Follow history, the share price of Supermx and Toplov will peak in April or July 2021 like what had happened in H1N1 pandemic in 2009.

Thank you.
13/08/2020 7:03 AM
CharlesT Posted by OTB > Aug 13, 2020 6:46 AM | Report Abuse

Let us go back to history on glove rallies during the H1N1 pandemic.

When we look back at H1N1 pandemic history, the glove rally was over when WHO said the H1N1 pandemic was over/under control. This was after 18 months H1N1 pandemic was discovered.
---------------------------------------
FDA approved 4 vaccine since 15 September 2009,
Topglov and Supermx still sustain profit growth till mid of 2010.
The share price of Topglov was peak in July 2010.
The share price of Supermx was peak in April 2010u



u should compare the price increase during that time n this round....did their price increase more than 10 times in few months time like this round?
13/08/2020 7:05 AM
CharlesT tp 50...plus kyy's tp 100+ for TG

RUN FOREST RUN.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2-MCPa_3rU
13/08/2020 7:14 AM
freetospeak OTB sifu hope to c more of your post. Investor really need them. Thanks a lot !!!
13/08/2020 7:49 AM
boonlim98 thank you OTB sifu for your analysis
13/08/2020 8:30 AM
CCCL Dear OTB, if follow historically, the target achievable. How about any unforeseen circumstances like windfall tax?
13/08/2020 8:31 AM
Russel Thanks sifu OTB for this valueble insight
13/08/2020 8:32 AM
CharlesT sifu otb started to buy oil n gas ah

waiting for yr new ms universe soon
13/08/2020 8:35 AM
OTB Posted by CCCL > Aug 13, 2020 8:31 AM | Report Abuse

Dear OTB, if follow historically, the target achievable. How about any unforeseen circumstances like windfall tax?
-------------------------
I do not believe in windfall tax.
Wait for budget announcement.
Thank you.
13/08/2020 8:42 AM
CharlesT Many oredi made few hundred percent gain fm glove play..

If 30% of the profit go to oil n gas also can be very huge
13/08/2020 8:43 AM
OTB Posted by CharlesT > Aug 13, 2020 8:35 AM | Report Abuse

sifu otb started to buy oil n gas ah

waiting for yr new ms universe soon
--------------------
Dear CharlesT,

Wait for buy signal to appear.
Thank you.
13/08/2020 8:43 AM
CCCL Dear OTB, well noted with thanks.
13/08/2020 9:31 AM
Equityengineer OTB, that does not include receivables that was in this quarter.
13/08/2020 9:41 AM
Henry8833 Out of Top 4, only Supermax and TG are still undervalued, esp Supermax OBM model.
Harta and Kossan are overvalued. If there is bubble, it is always Harta and Kossan and most of second liners like Comfort, HLT etc



I agreed with below views by freetospeak and Probability


Good point CiA Agent @probability...


probability EPS of Super is 5 x times higher than HARTA for the same quarter ending June 20'

Supermax has double the layer of margin with OBM

The margin edge that Harta had with AMG, Super has it twice the strength with OBM

Harta is dependent on U.S for 40% of its revenue.

Supermax has established its network worldwide, Canada, Japan, Brazil and growing....

Even if you use Harta's pre-covid price of 5.5, Supermax share price should be worth 27 plus now...

Cant Supermax earn 6 x Harta's pre-covid eps of 3 cents per qtr with its increasing capacity going forward when the pandemic is over?

Thats just 16 cents per qtr to justify RM 27 with Harta's pre-covid PE
12/08/2020 9:01 PM

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Aug 12, 2020 9:17 PM | Report Abuse

I do not know when the pandemic will end. But i know the profit for gloves company will not drop due to pandemic over.it will be sustained by growing capacity and a higher post covid price than precovid.those who imagine the asp will drop bak to precovid level doesnt know how the glove market pricing works. Jus giv a easy example.if super hav 50 billion caps by 2022, it only need 10 sen margin per gloves it can get 800 to 1 billion profit each qtr . 10 sen profit is only usd 50/k.

Do u think supermax cannot sell more than usd50 post covid? B4 covid distributor in us is selling above this price for your info. So thats the reason super is building 5 plant at once. If u hav eliminated all agent n middleman. Super is already the king of obmX.
13/08/2020 11:08 AM
Henry8833 Super just included in MSCI Msia and will be included in KLCI soon. More and more funds will be buying and valuation and business will never be the same...

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Aug20_STPublicList.pdf
13/08/2020 11:09 AM
vinkuat Dear Mr. Ooi, you did not add the SPOT order. The 10% of the initial line productions and also the additional capacity will goes to the SPOT order. Thanks.
13/08/2020 11:32 AM
Vairocana9999 Sifu OTB, thank you very much for sharing your calculations and ideas. I will listen to your advice.
13/08/2020 1:13 PM
Hockey Thanks for sharing
13/08/2020 3:04 PM
Smile333 Thanks Sifu OTB. Can you please advise to hold Supermax until end of this year or April to July 2021?
13/08/2020 3:09 PM
Vc Looi why some people are very jealous when other are making money ? in fact you can go other place and make your money instead of polluting other people hard work..Because of this kind of selfish attitude he has miss out so many time of wealth making opportunity..sad on you..
13/08/2020 4:19 PM
George Leong Thank you so much for sharing this article OTB, appreciate it lots :)
13/08/2020 4:30 PM
newbie8080 @ OTB
How do you know August & September ASP increase by 30% respectively?
13/08/2020 5:06 PM
OTB Posted by newbie8080 > Aug 13, 2020 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

@ OTB
How do you know August & September ASP increase by 30% respectively?
-------------------
I get this information from my subscribers.
I had verified and I believe this information is reliable.
Thank you.
13/08/2020 8:44 PM
OTB Posted by Smile333 > Aug 13, 2020 3:09 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks Sifu OTB. Can you please advise to hold Supermax until end of this year or April to July 2021?
-------------------
My strategy is to buy and hold until the end of 2020.
I believe the earning of Supermx will be peak after Q1 2021.
It is strictly my opinion.
Thank you.
13/08/2020 8:48 PM
Lucas Low bravo calculation
13/08/2020 9:10 PM
SpotOn1 Agree with the projection
13/08/2020 9:56 PM
joecool32 Great work! May I raise a few points
1. Interest income - RM1.2b of cash is not without its benefits. In q4's income statement, interest exp = RM17m. We can safely assume RM15m savings here......?
2. Depreciation of new assets might incur higher depreciation. Q4's Fixed asset increase ard RM100m means ard RM3-4m of addt'l depr'n per qtr assuming an avg useful life off 8 yrs. Not sure if this is already included in the 15% cost increase
14/08/2020 6:05 AM
CharlesT fund managers uncle auntie ah soh ah pek hold tight tight on their few hundred percent papar gain no sweat at all on the coming vaccines die die wanna wait for tp rm30 or rm50 or rm100???

Geng....
14/08/2020 9:57 AM
CharlesT One russian not so reliable vaccine oredi made glove co mkt cap vaporated by few hundred millions RM.........what will happen if the next vaccine fm US or UK or Germany or China come out later

maybe will limit up leh who knows
14/08/2020 10:07 AM
CharlesT Maybe aliens will finally come to buy at rm30 or rm50 or rm100 later lah...maybe their planets also kena covid 19 leh

Mayb glove co can sustain their current super asp n high margin for the next 10 years or 20 years or forever leh....

again who knows ...
14/08/2020 10:13 AM
CharlesT if u still scare dont worry...wait for kyy or citibank to come out with more posts n higher tps.....
14/08/2020 10:15 AM
omione 6 vaccines already in 3rd stage trial. But Supermax earnings will hold its ground. Even if vaccines pass stage 3, implementing the inoculations may not necessarily run in a straight line. There's still uncertain time ahead for vaccines. But an outsized profit awaiting Supermax 1Q21 is more certain.
14/08/2020 10:20 AM
Smile333 Thank you once again Sifu OTB!

-------------------
My strategy is to buy and hold until the end of 2020.
I believe the earning of Supermx will be peak after Q1 2021.
It is strictly my opinion.
Thank you.
14/08/2020 2:18 PM
qwz2604 thank you OTB for the calculations and analysis. Very much appreciated!
17/08/2020 11:43 AM
pxxluo Hi OTB, thank you for sharing. Can I check how to get the latest analyst briefing that you have dated 11th Aug? I saw a copy that is dated 9th Aug, and I can not find the 3.3B cap increase you mentioned. On my copy, I see this on slide 16.
PLANT #12
Block A - fully operational
 Capacity - 2.2 billion per annum
Block B
 Installation of production lines resumed since 4.5.2020
 Target to start commissioning for 1
st 4 double former lines by 3Q CY2020
 Remaining 4 double formers lines by 4Q CY2020
 Capacity – 2.2 billion per annum

Thanks.
17/08/2020 2:29 PM
omione I wanted to know in the event ASP in FY23 declines, what will be the fair value of Supermax shares be? And what I found is nothing short of shocking. The current selldown of Supermax is absolutely ridiculous. It’s simple NUTS.

I’ve done the FY21, FY22, and FY23 estimate based on conservative assumptions. I still come up with the following EPS (based on current 1.36b share outstanding):

FY21 Rm2.52
FY22 Rm2.47
FY23 Rm1.85

Look. I intentionally left out the Rm120m profit Supermax claimed it did not capture in time for 4Q20. If this was included in FY21, the EPS would have been Rm2.61.

Bear in mind that certain analyst reported that the ASP in Jun 2020 already hit USD120 per thousand. Here I only assume an ASP of USD90 for FY21.

Also the cost reported in 4Q20 was 39% of revenue. Yet in this exercise I assume a higher ratio. This is to account for teething problems with new production lines coming into operations after Dec 2020.

Let’s ignore the sterling results of FY21 that most of us expect. Even if EPS for FY23 declines as projected here to Rm1.85 (with the assumption that ASP will decline to USD48), the Rm16.70 closing price today still jarringly missed price Supermax. It’s NUTS!

Can a fast growing company like Supermax be priced at just PE 6 to 9? Frankly, if the investment banks are not picking up this jarring mispricing, they should just close shop.

[I would love to support the above comments with my Excel Spreadsheet. But I don't seem to be able to post it. Will appreciate if someone can tell me how to do it.]
18/08/2020 3:44 AM


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
Perform Technical & Fundamental Analysis on Stocks
MQ Affiliate
Earn rewards by referring your friends
 
 

430  455  537  679 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 XOX 0.175+0.005 
 MTRONIC 0.085+0.005 
 VSOLAR 0.040.00 
 ASB 0.15-0.025 
 KANGER 0.205-0.015 
 BINTAI 0.69-0.015 
 PTRANS 0.2850.00 
 JCY 0.755+0.04 
 INIX 0.33+0.03 
 KSTAR 0.20+0.02 

FEATURED POSTS

1. The Equity Market Index Benchmark in Malaysia CMS
2. Trading Scenarios of Derivatives Bursa Derivatives Education Series
3. Derivatives 101 Bursa Derivatives Education Series
4. Why Trade FKLI? Bursa Derivatives Education Series
5. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
PARTNERS & BROKERS