Author: Patrick TheBull   |   Latest post: Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 2:38 PM



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Padini, I think I no need to describe much on its business. Every one of you either you are a shopaholic or a window shopper, you surely will know this company, unless you are not a Malaysian.

Recently, its share price plunged 35% in half of a month time. Actually what is going wrong in this company?

1. Poor latest quarter result, below expectation.
2. Lower sales and margin 
3. Higher operating costs expected to be continued
4. Underperform shoplets will be closed in 1-2 years time
5. Expansion and profit growth slowing down
6. Competitive business environment

Why do so many investors keep catching this falling knife? Is it a cheap buy or still an expensive buy now? Will its share price continue to slump or ready to recover? or just because they are one of the fans of PADINI?

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1. Price will continue to fall in this bearish market.
2. However, there is a potential small rebound at the price of RM 3.00-3.05 per share, but this rebound might not last long.
3. Might be a seasonality play counter, by taking last 5 years data, the up probability of Oct-Jan is below 50%.
4. Ultimate TP: RM2.50 and below

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My 2cents comment,
1. Catch if you have a strong heart and deep pocket.
2. Buy its shirts, not its counter.
3. Buy low, get super low. 
4. The global business landscape is 
shifting to digital age.

Not buy or sell call, good luck and happy investing.


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Labels: PADINI

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
PADINI 3.64 -0.01 (0.27%) 166,300 

  Be the first to like this.
UMA UMA UMA Really make me wonder why got so many naked malaysian.
15/12/2018 3:32 PM
omgimnoob I will only touch when it reaches 50 cents
15/12/2018 4:23 PM
Parkson888888 You mean they gamble until no money to buy shirt?

J For Janice Really make me wonder why got so many naked malaysian.
15/12/2018 15:32
15/12/2018 4:24 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Padini has long been overvalued, too high expectations of growth being pricing in amid unrealistic optimism and driven by investors' GREED.

When the sentiment reverse or when market starts to realise its mistake, eventually the market will "correct its past mistake" by bringing down the valuation to its fair value.

So the question now is what is the fair value for Padini? At current price, is their ample margin of error? is it undervalued?

back in the days, i bought Padini when it was pricing at 5-6x PE with yield 4-5%.

that was the time when u know u have found a hidden gem.
15/12/2018 5:08 PM
Alex™ When market down, we don't use the term fair value. What is cheap gets cheaper. Lower price leads to still lower prices.

I won't hoot padini because of insane valuation. Not now too.
15/12/2018 5:11 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" when it drops back to PE 5-6x maybe i'll reconsider Padini again.

Coz its cheap enough then.
15/12/2018 5:23 PM
lizi Pe 5 to 6? I thought i already very no give face to this overvalue padini...u more mere than me..
15/12/2018 7:18 PM
lizi ok, it is possible if their future earning slump further, meaning current pe of 6 is equivalent to forward pe of 13 (anticipating future earning plunge)...that's make sense.
15/12/2018 7:28 PM
qqq3 no kidding....how to be stock picker?

just when everybody so bullish...and no GST quarter some more.
16/12/2018 12:00 AM
shpg22 Quarter revenue is actually up YoY. Only amateur compare it QoQ.
16/12/2018 11:33 AM
VenFx Padini fundamentally remained super strong.
Growth wise just follow their next 2 qtr la.

Precautionary measure; be aware that most chips accumulated at very low costs.

I will wait for the settling 1st.
Which believed somewhere below $2.80
16/12/2018 7:58 PM
trulyinvest Post removed. Why?
16/12/2018 8:33 PM


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