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Choivo Capital

Author: Choivo Capital   |   Latest post: Sat, 6 Jul 2019, 5:16 PM

 

(CHOIVO CAPITAL) The Malay Tsunami and the effects of elections on the economy (and by extensions, the market)

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It’s been an interesting week for Malaysia. With the main reason being the re-delineation of seats and districts for the upcoming elections.

I cannot count the amount of people speaking about it as if it’s the end of days, how unfair it is, and how because of this, it’s an absolute goner for Pakatan Harapan. And this includes our opposition politicians as well.

I disagree.

It is unfair, but in my opinion, it will make very little difference in the outcome of the elections. I think Pakatan Harapan will still win this round, its mainly a question of if the transition will be smooth, or what other tricks does BN and Najib have under his sleeves.

This delineation was done in accordance with the voting patterns of the last general elections. And since then, so much has changed.

The effects of last election was attributed to the Chinese Tsunami. This year, it will be due to the Malay Tsunami.

In the last election, the districts won by BN consist of mainly the rural malay areas. These areas are dominated by the lower income Malays who are also malaysia's biggest voter base.

Here's a quick thinking exercise. 



"Over the last 4 years, can you tell me even one thing Najib or BN did right for the lower income malays?"



I personally honestly cannot even think of one thing. Before you say BR1M, let me say that the effect of GST is about 4 times bigger than BR1M.

Last time, these people could just ignore the opposition and continue support BN, because despite the rhetoric of the opposition. Their lives were never really affected, at least not in a way that they knew or would notice. This round its different, most of them are suffering due to BN's policies.

There will be many factors for BN’s loss, but here are what I think is are the most important ones.

 

1) GST & Increase cost of living

This in my opinion is the major factor. For most of us middle class or upper middle class city people. Let’s be real with each other, GST does not really affect us. The only time we really feel it is when you buy a big ticket item and find out that you need to top up a few hundred for GST.

For those earning RM4,000 and above. What is an extra few ringgit here and there? You can barely feel it.

However, the vast majority of malays and the rural folk, earn less than RM2,000 per month, with most of them earning less than RM1,500. I am not kidding you on this.

When i was an auditor not too long ago, i’ve gone through the entire payrolls and headcount of entire companies. And most malays earn just RM1.2 to RM1.5k a month. And many of them have 2-4 children. How does one even survive.

Before you diasgree with my anecdotal evidence.

Do note that only 10% of Malaysian’s pay income tax or earn more than RM3.7k a month. And 80% of Malaysians households earn less Rm8,319 (including double income). In addition, I have yet to see a Chinese earn less than RM2k per month when going through the payrolls. And indians are only 5% of the population.

For people like these, who literally live hand to mouth every month, and spend close to every cent on essentials, that additional 6% is an incredibly heavy burden.

And BR1M is what, only RM400? Assuming a household makes RM2k a month, or RM24k a year, and spends it all on essentials. That is RM1440 extra they pay a year due to GST. Minimum.

We don’t even need to start talk about the weakening of our currency causing the prices of goods to rise.

For the last 2 years or so, the lives of these rural or low income malays, which makes up the bulk of malaysia, have been pretty bad.

 

 

2) 1MDB

What else is there to be said? Everyone knows the story. Everyone knows who MO1 is. Even the makcik selling nasi lemak knows who it is.

 

 

3) Mahathir

For most Malaysians still alive today, the greatest level of prosperity we have ever known came while Mahathir was in power.

Mahathir coming back at a time like this, is like the second coming of Jesus for most rural malays. In their minds, here is the old man, coming back to save everyone and make Malaysia great again.

The fact that he has shifted over to the opposition means that a lot of the rural malay votes will be coming along as well.

 

 

 

4) Felda

A few years back, FGV was listed, and the settlers were given FGV shares in exchange for their lands. The IPO price for FGV was RM4.55. It is RM1.7 today. That is a 63% drop in your net worth if you’re a felda settler.

In 2013, BN won Rompin by 15k votes. In 2015, when the MP died and a new election was held, they won by only 8.8k. And the share price for FGV was RM2.3 then.

Felda settlers control 54 out of 222 parliamentary seats, of which 48 is BN’s.

 

 

Conclusion

If Pakatan Harapan wins, what will this mean for our economy and our markets? Well, you can bet for the first few weeks or months to be very messy. Market volaitlity will be very high. The lack of political stability will make foreign funds pull out, which will create more instability.

But once PH is in charge. Malaysia will once again be on the right track and i can see the economy and the country going from strength to strength.



What if BN wins?

Well, we might get a boost in the markets. Temporarily.

But over the long term, malaysia is going to go down the path of ever greater mediocrity for the next 10 -20 years, before it all goes down the shitter.

Because you can bet that BN and Najib will be leading till the day he dies. And they will rule with ever greater impunity.

If BN can still win despite 1MDB. You can do anything you want. And they will do whatever they want.




What does this mean for the average investor? Well, for me, i don't let my views on politics etc affect me too much.  But i do lean a little on it.

Instead of being 100% commited into the markets, ill likely put 15-20% in cash, getting ready to take advatage of the sudden drops if any.

====================================================================

Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com

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  4 people like this.
 
kinuxian Jon Choivo & Sslee.. It's just no points to argue further, why waste your saliva. A highly educated person might be blinded by immediate gain of wealth and power. Hopefully one can true to him/herself and act according to the dictate of conscience.

Malaysia had stepped backward over the past decades due to many reasons. Future of tens of millions Malaysian regardless race are at stake and only small group of cronies will be benefited if the country continue rules by corrupted politician after GE14. Greed on power and wealth always their top priority.
03/04/2018 12:48 PM
Choivo Capital kinuxian,

There is a certain value in helping others see your perspective, as well as seeing their perspective.

Unfortunately, there is a limit to the amount of time and energy we have.

Sorry goodcompanies, really no time to help you.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/973671/download

Here is a copy of the report by the US DOJ.

Before you say people ask their foreign dogs to help, you think anyone in msia got so much power until can influence the US DOJ? Even the PM also cannot influence.
03/04/2018 2:05 PM
Choivo Capital Here is a summary if you no time to go through the 257 pages. Quite illuminating really.

http://pages.malaysiakini.com/1mdb/en/
03/04/2018 2:06 PM
eKe cyber troopers has been planted everywhere to protect or to influence potential voters.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bn-info-machinery-ready-fend-opposition-slander-%E2%80%94-annuar-musa
03/04/2018 2:19 PM
qqq3 yes, that good companies guy is definitely a cyber trooper , paid for with our tax money.
03/04/2018 3:02 PM
saydon Before you say people ask their foreign dogs to help, you think anyone in msia got so much power until can influence the US DOJ? Even the PM also cannot influence.

Total agreed on the above. Who had the power to instruct or influence US DOJ, Tun Mahathir? not a chance. Even our PM, offering to make US great again by offering to buy many planes and others (not faked news, got video to prove..haha), cash is king couldn't do it. Is naive to think anyone in malaysia have the power to do that.
03/04/2018 3:42 PM
andry_ong @GoodCompanies# A good leader must not only clean, he need to be seen as clean, he need to be seen as trustworthy, he need to be seen as reliable with vision. If he is no longer seen with the above quality, he should resign paving way for a more qualify leader to lead the country.
03/04/2018 4:27 PM
GoodCompanies Point no 345 in the document you supplied, showed that the money in the account was returned to Tanore account. This money is from the purported MO1 account. So in conclusion, nothing was taken by MO1 lah. So this is clear.
Even your DOJ document showed that.

For misappropriation of funds, the DOJ document say:

1MDB BOD expressed concerns to 1MDB official No 1 and No 2 about the money transferred done, without the authorization of the Board. So again, i don't see MO1 here. Somebody, crooks, took money away. Blaming MO1 who is not in the loop, is not proper. The 1MDB board said try return the money. BUt the board and the PM is misled by these crooks.

Anyway, reading this long documents, to conclude it.
If really money of 1MDB is stolen, then USA gov must return it because the USA gov said this is 1MDB money. So please return it lah. I want to see this happening. If this is not happening, then it is just hearsay.
If someone opens a bank account under your name, put in money, then withdraw the money, you will not even know about it. Then suddenly you are guilty? What kind of logic is this?
03/04/2018 5:23 PM
GoodCompanies Henly, tell that to your leaders first. Start with Tun M. Ask to be looking clean. The best DOJ came up is money from the MO1 account is returned back to the sender. So accusing somebody as corrupt based on such a flimsy evidence mana laku.
03/04/2018 5:25 PM
GoodCompanies This is what DOJ say, that Mr Low said.
"Bro, here is outline of the issues I would like to discuss with the Terengganu Investment Authority. In essence the disquiet surrounding the plan is that the fund will operate entirely on borrowed money, which is largely anathema because it puts taxpayer’s money at risk. Could they elaborate on this concern?
There is also the issue of transparency and will the money go towards portfolio investments or be used to buy strategic stakes in companies.?
"
This doesn't sound like a crook. Anyway until a firm evidence is presented, we can't conclude, unlike you all who make quick conclusion before any evidence is presented.
At the time of TIA and before 1MDB, mr Low is only maybe 25 or 26 yrs old. He already opening accounts in swiss banks you name it. He even directs, conclude deals whatever. And people listening and giving him millions even billions. Who will give a 25 yr old so much money? Sounds ridiculous, but until we see the proofs, then i cant believe it so easily.
03/04/2018 5:28 PM
qqq3 as long as it is govt propaganda, it is never fake news

it is only fake news when it challenges the status quo,
it is only fake news when the rich and powerful don't like it.
03/04/2018 5:57 PM
Sslee Dear all,
If the truth is what you are after, just Google and find out for yourself all the charge sheet and judgments written by judges on case involving 1MDB scandal in countries that had taken prosecution/court action.
I am totally heartbroken and cannot believe myself that the influence of “CASH IS KING” can be so devastating to so many people? They not just closed their eye on what is happening but in fact sold their soul and conscious to their devil paymaster and become his zombie cyber troopers.

“PM is already rich as he is, coming from royal blood.”
https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/irate-najib-brothers-dispute-family-wealth/

”In the arbitration, the UAE company admitted and knew that it will lose a case in court, so they settled.”
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2017/12/22/ipic-v-1mdb-a-mind-boggling-settlement/

You have just witness what kind of zombies these people had turn into, without soul and conscious and readily do what their pay master told them. I am wondering from where they learned to twists and turn the facts and telling more lies to cover their lie to suit their argument. When they cannot win their argument, then there are these RED Shirt thugs to intimidate, terrorize and threaten you.

Now I understand why MO1 need the Anti Faked News law. He must be very disappointed and felt embarrassed by his paid cyber troopers doing such a low class, lousy and disgusting argument. They are actually pouring salt into his injuries as if he had not been discredited enough.
Since there are so many questions unanswered why not set up RCI (Royal Commissioning of Inquiry) to call up all those involves in 1MDB to testify and redeems the PM reputation? “Berani kerena benar takut kerana salah.” For a man who dare not attend nothing to hide forum, do he had the gut to set up RCI to clear his own name???
“Fight fake news with transparency, not punishment”- C4

Seeking Confirmation the below link is true or fake news?
https://malaysia-bodoh.com/2017/05/26/bombshell-we-all-received-1mdb-money-najib-wrote-us-cash-cheques-deliberately-or-not-nazri-spills-more-beans-to-hang-najib-umno-for-electoral-cheating/
https://cilisos.my/did-bn-really-use-rm2-6-bil-for-ge13-we-try-to-calculate/

I do not know are we still not too late to save Malaysia from these zombies and his evil master? But I can say for sure if we miss this GE14 our children and grandchildren will have a very grim future. I call upon all right minded Malaysians irrespective of Race, Religion, Creed and Gender to unite and hand in hand come out in full force to vote for PH and kick out the corrupted MO1 and his decadent, Kleptocratic Governmet.

Thank you
04/04/2018 12:39 AM
izoklse Smear Campaign Backfires And Kit Siang Panics

According to The Malaysian Insight news report below, Lim Kit Siang is panicking and is frantically getting in touch with the Swiss authorities to discuss what to do with the RM430 million they confiscated.

Kit Siang does not want the money returned to 1MDB or to the Malaysian Government. Switzerland, on the other hand, is planning to keep the money for themselves. Kit Siang is not happy with that either and he wants Switzerland to keep the money ‘in trust’ and to be used for the benefit of the 32 million Malaysian people.

How that is going to be done (and whether such a thing has ever be done before) is not clear because Kit Siang has not explained the mechanics of how to do it. If Switzerland uses the money, say to build Chinese schools in Penang, then only a handful of Malaysians would benefit from the money.

The problem is Switzerland confiscated the money due to a complaint lodged by Matthias Chang and Khairuddin Abu Hassan and not due to a complaint lodged by 1MDB or by the Malaysian Government. If 1MDB or the Malaysian Government want that money they have to lodge a complaint with the Swiss Government and submit proof that they lost that money or that the money was stolen from them.

But then 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government did not lose that money. The money was not stolen from either 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government. So how can 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government claim that money back if they did not lose it or the money was not stolen from them? More importantly, how can 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government show proof or offer evidence that they lost that money or that the money was stolen from them if the proof/evidence does not exist?

So, it looks like Pakatan Harapan’s smear campaign has backfired badly and Kit Siang is panicking. If Switzerland keeps the money, like how they plan to do, and not send the money to 1MDB or the Malaysian Government, like how they plan to do, then this only proves that the money may have been stolen from somewhere, but it was not stolen from 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government.
04/04/2018 12:54 AM
izoklse Smear Campaign Backfires And Kit Siang Panics

The problem is Switzerland confiscated the money due to a complaint lodged by Matthias Chang and Khairuddin Abu Hassan and not due to a complaint lodged by 1MDB or by the Malaysian Government. If 1MDB or the Malaysian Government want that money they have to lodge a complaint with the Swiss Government and submit proof that they lost that money or that the money was stolen from them.

But then 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government did not lose that money. The money was not stolen from either 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government. So how can 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government claim that money back if they did not lose it or the money was not stolen from them? More importantly, how can 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government show proof or offer evidence that they lost that money or that the money was stolen from them if the proof/evidence does not exist?

So, it looks like Pakatan Harapan’s smear campaign has backfired badly and Kit Siang is panicking. If Switzerland keeps the money, like how they plan to do, and not send the money to 1MDB or the Malaysian Government, like how they plan to do, then this only proves that the money may have been stolen from somewhere, but it was not stolen from 1MDB and/or the Malaysian Government.

Matthias Chang and Khairuddin Abu Hassan also went to the US to lodge complaints with the Department of Justice. So, because of this, the US is confiscating various cash and assets. On 20th July 2016, the US DoJ announced that around US$1 billion or roughly RM4 billion is being targeted. On 15th June 2017 the US DoJ revised that figure downwards to US$540 million or RM2.1 billion.

Anyway, whether it is RM4 billion or RM2 billion is not really the issue. The issue is all those confiscated cash and assets will belong to the American people, said the news report on Friday, and not to 1MDB or the Malaysian Government. And that is why Kit Siang is panicking. If the US and Swiss Governments confiscate billions from all over the world and keep the money for themselves, then what good would that do?

More importantly, how can they use this as ammunition in the GE14 general election campaign? If the US and Swiss Governments keep those cash and assets they confiscated and do not return it to 1MDB or to the Malaysian Government, that would mean the money was not stolen from 1MDB or from the Malaysian Government.
04/04/2018 12:55 AM
izoklse Smear Campaign Backfires And Kit Siang Panics

http://www.malaysia-today.net/2018/03/12/smear-campaign-backfires-and-kit-siang-panics/

More importantly, how can they use this as ammunition in the GE14 general election campaign? If the US and Swiss Governments keep those cash and assets they confiscated and do not return it to 1MDB or to the Malaysian Government, that would mean the money was not stolen from 1MDB or from the Malaysian Government.
04/04/2018 12:57 AM
BB1218 hahaha! Still got ppl reading Malaysia today? RPK is a double head snake and has been bought over by BeeN lo. He is BeeN tools nos to spread fake news.
04/04/2018 1:28 AM
saydon True...RPK will sell his arse if price is right.
04/04/2018 1:33 AM
qqq3 izoklse.....another cyber warrior paid for with our tax money.
04/04/2018 3:24 AM
kennyyap1962 If u read what is written above u will know were they come from(judge yr-self) Sorry to say human r idiot believe what their own knowledge or biase ,same like investment ,that why lose money,everyone if form a gp find solution much more efficient.
PLEASE GO TO BAR COUNCIL OR G25(MALAY INTELLECT-SMART/EDUCATED/WORLD VIEW LEADER)U WILL KNOW THIS MALAY R NOT STUPID LIKE US.
BN WIN In Ge13 due to Sabah/Sarawak(simple ppl who follow own race leader(self-serving leader-). D malay in urban already change.
04/04/2018 9:52 AM
GoodCompanies Conclusion:

Based on DOJ document, in number 345, it is clearly mentioned that money into MO1 account is returned back to Tanore.
So now, your claim PM took money or stole money, is now crappot claim. Maybe other people took money, but your doc showed that it is not MO1. So why you still claim he took it?

Now you want LGE out, because now it seems you also believed he is corrupt. So why don't you all sack him because why he don't want to let go of power? Tunnel question, nobody here reply a single word on it.

So in conclusion, you all just have some make believe without any hard proof, that MO1 took money. Until you show some real proof, then it is just a statement.

To Choivo, who make fake news about Malay Tsunami without solid evidence, only by his own observation. That is only facts in your mind, but the real fact is, with PAS leaving your coalition, there can never be a tsunami. In fact a tsunami opposite way is indeed, more likely. I say you are making fake news statement, so beat off.
I read in KYY, he also mentioned malay tsunami, i read LKS, also mentioned the same. You all were programmed and told to say the same thing. Just believe and do. So this is what is the prob with the edu system.
Unlike you zombies, i have read your manifesto in entirety. I don't read news only from one side, like you all.
04/04/2018 9:53 AM
GoodCompanies SSlee, i have read many of the charge sheets including the infamous and thick DOJ. have you? I posted my findings above. So now what are you gonna say, that your claim that MO1 took money is disproved?
04/04/2018 9:55 AM
kinuxian Conclusion: You are wasting your breath too. U hardly can influence those clear minded folks here. Many countries had took action on 1MDB saga and yet u still trying covered MO1 ass here. Are you questioning the legal system in all these countries? And yet, all relevant agencies can do nothing about it in Malaysia. This is too hard and too late for u to twist the fact. Pls, use your skills and time help poor Malaysian to strike for better future. It never too late.
04/04/2018 10:27 AM
cyeec2000 Try to see how the Parliament Malaysia, can politician to bring out the issue of 1MDB and discussion? Can Malaysia do has system to correct themselves?if the accusation of 1MDB is false why not just having legal due to the WSJ and indonesia tempor?The anti fake news is intended to suppressed the whistleblower.when more money to be misused, the money will be regained by more tax to be collected and more subsidies being cut which has been witnessed by few years..If private consumption is not good due to high inflation .how Malaysia company can be ensured to have good growth?
04/04/2018 10:56 AM
GoodCompanies I am helping poor malaysians lah. You are not by not answering questions posed.
1. Covering MO1 ass? But your so called evidence say he didn't took any money. So how? Is your brain in your ass too?
2. House no swimming pool, can you talk about it? Why this issue not discussed in dewan?
3. Ijok case, why no discussion in dewan?
4. Tunnel issue, nobody want to say a single word.

Do yourself a favor and help yourself out. Otherwise you will drag this country down.

Tell me, who poison Mr. Skripal? Can you research and figure it out? If you can't then how do you help yourself?
04/04/2018 11:41 AM
GoodCompanies kinuxian, really, i care not about their opinion. i don't care who is really right or wrong. I only care about those who want to damage this country. If you only talk and talk, so talk kok all you want, i don't care. But if you want and already acted to hurt this country, then you have to face me.
04/04/2018 11:43 AM
GoodCompanies This Choivo wrote about why people will go tsunami:

"Mahathir

For most Malaysians still alive today, the greatest level of prosperity we have ever known came while Mahathir was in power.

Mahathir coming back at a time like this, is like the second coming of Jesus for most rural malays. In their minds, here is the old man, coming back to save everyone and make Malaysia great again.

The fact that he has shifted over to the opposition means that a lot of the rural malay votes will be coming along as well."

Your profile showed you are born in 1992. I hope you know what you are talking about, otherwise you just rinse and repeat what others are talking around you.

I lived through Mahathir period, i can tell you today it is far better than during his time. Prosperity, not so, it was concentrated within a few, today it is widespread. Freedom of speech, maybe you should check back your WSJ archives that talk about it then.

And your word "most" is so questionable. No proof infact. Second coming of Jesus, what a comparison. More like second comeing of apocalyse adalah.

Drama here and there. Fire this and that guy. Sumbat in jel this and that guy.
04/04/2018 11:49 AM
kennyyap1962 You r the one destroy Msia. Write so many crap to defend corrupted mind. Just see how parliament change lawto protect scandal like felda/lembu condo & yet Mr Rafizi is prosecute. Why wsj dont write any bad thing on Indonesia(major muslim nation)?
04/04/2018 11:57 AM
apolloang no matter what,will not vote for crooks
04/04/2018 12:22 PM
apolloang so don't vote for the crooks lah
04/04/2018 12:28 PM
apolloang no hardcore just like to see the big crook is out,or else business shut down 1 by 1,bursa down everyday.u wanna see the rakyat suffer?
04/04/2018 12:38 PM
apolloang msia must be revamp to save the future generation.don't be greedy just wanna take brim.take 1200 next time donate back 12k
04/04/2018 12:43 PM
apolloang if everyday like this soon msia become like greece
04/04/2018 12:44 PM
apolloang hopefully the malays will think about their future not the Chinese cos the Chinese only less than 20% of the total population in msia.they cannot do anything.the majorities have to think about their future not only short term sikit gain
04/04/2018 12:46 PM
miker If it is not a fake article:

http://toffeesturn.blogspot.my/2018/03/bn-intelligence-sources-predict-bn-loss.html
04/04/2018 12:47 PM
apolloang better change than curret environment,jangan bodoh.UBAH UBAH UBAH
04/04/2018 12:48 PM
apolloang all Chinese to support malay pakatan.please say and support no wanna makan babi forever if pakatan win the next GE.for the future and be frens to malays forever
04/04/2018 12:51 PM
miker Not a bankrupt country, but, our anak cucu cicit kena tanggung pay the country debt, for long time.
04/04/2018 12:58 PM
Sslee Dear GoodCompanies,
What the point of reading if you do not have any capacity to understand and see the full picture? I am just a concern Malaysian and a parent. I am not a member of any political party. I welcome any investigation on LGE and let examine all the evident presented in the court and let justices be done.

Talk is cheap, Can you walk the talk? Why not you ask your so called clean, flawless, the chosen one, the loved and admired by the whole Arab world, the most intelligent and the most compassion and loved one to hold a Royal Commissioning of Inquiry (RCI) so that the truth and nothing but the truth on 1MDB and MO1 can be revealed to the whole word. Yes indeed MO1 is the god chosen one with flawless integrity and characters and his wealth is from, as you say from your so called brain;
“PM is already rich as he is, coming from royal blood.”
https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/irate-najib-brothers-dispute-family-wealth/

Please start a movement and do a favor to MO1 by petition to His Highness Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Muhammad V for a RCI on 1MDB. For Malaysian sake, once and for all to vindicate MO1 and restore the good name of Malaysia in the eyes of the whole world and save us Malaysians from been ridiculed by the whole world.

I thank you
04/04/2018 1:06 PM
qqq3 seems like sslee is talking to a Cambridge Analytic bot......hahaha

and he doesn't realise it.
04/04/2018 1:12 PM
kinuxian Dear GoodCompanies,
God blessed your choosen one, carries highest integrity, flawless and intelligence (some how forgot basic 101 which money shouldn't bank in personal acct). Public servants are cheer about it with additional pay raise (twice a year). What a holyman! For rest of poor Malaysian, continued work hard and pay the tax to support the holyman.
04/04/2018 1:36 PM
kinuxian Basically regardless how flawless is the choosen one, we should just vote for a change to evolve into matured democracy a.k.a 2 parties system and take turn to manage the country. Would you agreed that Mr GoodCompanies? Since we have same views to wish poor Malaysian to hv better future.
04/04/2018 2:04 PM
einvest88 PH has high chance of winning this time round due to Dr M factor. Don't simply under estimate Dr M impact to the coming PRU. Past study show that Dr M factor much bigger than S46 and Anwar when both split from UMNO in the past. When S46 and Anwar split from UMNO, UMNO no of parliament seats down approx 20% from 109 to around 90. The no of votes fro UMNO also down approx 20% from highest 49%+ to present 35-39%. Dr M impact simply cant ignore. U can see DR has the ability to make Badawi to PM, forced him to step down and make Najib to became PM. He is just like Spore LKY. Some more, Dr M able to draw in big crowd in UMNO last stronghold, Felda. None of S46 or Anwar able to do that. U see what happen in last 2 weeks "ceramah" in rural area Kelantan, Kedah and Perlis? Crowd turnout more than 10k. Past analysis for PRU in 1974 to PRU 2013 indicated no matter how SPR making changes to the constituency, it always benefited the opposition in long term. The no of parliament seats increased from 154 in 1974 to present 222 in 2013, only opposition see the biggest beneficiary. The BN finding hard to win more. It has struggling to maintain around 130-140 parliament seats.
04/04/2018 2:18 PM
issac99289928 we all wish for a better Malaysia .It is time to take your votes seriously.
04/04/2018 2:32 PM
saydon Interesting...


Tuesday, 3 April 2018


Open Letter to Dato' Sri Azalina Othman


Dear Dato' Sri,


I hope this finds you well. My name is Aiman, I am 33 years old, currently residing in Kampung Masjid, Beserah, Kuantan. I was called to write you this open letter to air out some concern I have regarding the new bill motion that you tabled in Parliament on Monday, 26th March 2018 – Rang Undang-undang AntiBerita Palsu 2018 or the Anti-Fake News Bill 2018. Since the first reading on Monday, much coverage has been done on this Bill, by both the national media as well as the alternative media. However, there are some parts of the Bill that I do not understand. The extend of my education in Law are just the basics of Business Law which was a compulsory subject when I was doing my bachelor, and even that I couldn’t understand the whole thing. So as the de-facto minister in charge of Laws, I think that I should address it to you and ask you personally rather than making my own speculations, since even after reading the articles and commentaries for and against the bill, I still couldn’t fully understand the by-lines in the Bill.

1. What constitute as “Fake News”

According to the interview conducted by NST on March 26th 2018, you mentioned that the Bill defines Fake News as any news, information, data and report, either a part of or wholly false whether in an article, visual or audio recording or in any form that can visualise words or ideas. So my first question would be, what constitute as “Fact” or “Real News” in accordance to the Bill? If, a news report or article that was written with physical, testimonial, empirical and statistical facts, will it be accepted as “Real News”?


2. Who determines what is Fake and what is Fact

Should a Minister, Deputy Minister, or anyone from the Ministry comes up with a statement that totally contradicts report by any branch of the statutory body, who’s word should the citizen treat as “Fact” and who’s word should the citizen treat as “Fake”. For example, If a report released by Bank Negara directly contradicts a statement by a Minister, the citizen should know who’s words we need to take as Fact. We need to know who determines and define what is Fake and what is Fact?

In the example above, would the Minister or Bank Negara be charged under this proposed act?


3. Would investigative journalism be categorised as Fake News

If a journalist who investigate an individual or an organisation has 2 or more credible sources and able to present evidence to support their reporting, but the investigated individual or organisation categorically denies the report, can and will the journalist be penalised under the Anti-Fake News 2018 Act?


4. Would satirical works be considered as Fake News

Would artistic works – paintings, sculpture, mixed-media, caricature, literary, plays, music, dance, and film - that criticise or satirically portray individuals or organisations be considered as Fake News?


5. Religious Preachers

Would works and words of religious preachers – videos, theological literature, audio recordings, et cetera - be considered as Fake News? Religion is by the end of the day, is based on FAITH, not necessarily FACT, thus could easily fall under the definition that the Bill propose – either part or wholly false - since there’s still a myriad of things in religion that still couldn’t be proven, historically and scientifically.

Because as of today, we are still basing our FAITH on books and words of “messengers” or “divine beings” who lived hundreds and thousands of years ago, some of whom their actually existence are still yet to be proven.

Even today, we have people claiming that they received “divine” inspiration to either run for public office, or waiting for “divine” inspiration to call for election. Some even claimed that God spoke to them. Personally, I would like to ask them what does God’s voice sound like and how did God spoke to them. I would also like to ask if they have ever seek professional psychiatric help, instead of taking their word as fact, but that’s just me. Can and will the individuals who makes all these ludicrous claims be charged under this Bill?


6. Damning, unsubstantiated statements

Will bigoted and one sided reports, articles, forums or statements on foreign workers, immigrants, LGBTQ community, Orang Asal, and minority ethnic groups or any other minority groups be considered as Fake News?

As we draw closer to the upcoming General Election, I think we could all expect reports, articles or statements like “The Rocket Party is trying to establish a Christian Nation!” or “The Eclipse Party is trying to push for LGBTQ agenda!” or “The Keris Party is the only salvation for the Malays!”. Do they all fall under the Fake News category? Because as far as we are all concern, no one is trying to establish a Christian Nation, as it is clearly stated that we are a secular state; No one is definitely pushing for any LGBTQ agenda,
04/04/2018 4:28 PM
saydon heck, no party is even fighting for their basic human rights; and lastly, as a human being who happens to fall under the Malay ethnicity, I don’t think any political party can bring me salvation. If anything hard work and perseverance are the way to salvation, in my humble opinion.


7. International Reports

What are we Malaysians to do with international reports on Malaysia? Reports on 1MDB, EC’s redelineation, and the present-day government attempt to gerrymander are very much covered by international press and media. There are even on-going court cases on 1MDB in at least 7 countries, are we as citizens supposed to ignore all these facts and information.


Pasir Salak MP said in Parliamentary session during the second tabling of the motion for this Act that Malaysia should be govern by the law of our land – Malaysian court and legal system- in which I am in total agreement with, but what are we to do when the present-day government refuse to even talk or acknowledge the reports? The response that we get from the present-day government is that all these news are “Fake News” or that these foreign nations and press have hidden agenda, but what are their hidden agenda? Or is the present-day government trying to indicate that these countries are somehow victims of some elaborate false evidence conspiracy?

How is it possible for the Indonesian government & the FBI found the infamous yacht that was supposedly bought using the sovereign fund intended for Malaysian when Malaysian Royal Police Force failed to do so? Being the son of a former police officer, I refuse to believe that the Malaysian Royal Police Force with their vast intelligence network were not able to locate the yacht or the “owner”. I refuse to believe that Malaysian Royal Police Force is that incompetent, and I sincerely hope that I am not wrong in that assumption. On top of that, our local national mainstream media failed to report the seizure, in fact none of them even acknowledge it in their reporting the very next day.

Thankfully, Indonesia’s Tempo reported it. Are we, under this proposed bill, able to safely categorise this report by Tempo which was founded by Goenawan Muhammad was reporting Fake News?

8. Existing Act

You also mentioned in the same NST interview that the existing Act, such as our Libel law under the Penal Code, the Printing Press and Publication Act, and the Communications and Multimedia Act, are incapable to address the nature of increasingly complex offences in line with rapid technological progress. Ergo, why not table amendments to the existing law instead of introducing a totally new bill with such vague definition of what constitute as “Fake News”?

Amendments to other laws has been done before in the parliament. Why not this time? What’s the rush?


9. What does this mean to our freedom of speech?

Since the bill covers all medium and platform, what can we the people expect of our right to the freedom of speech? Should I in my social media posting, write “I do not and will not support Mr. NR because I don’t think that he is a just, intelligent nor is he a good leader for Malaysia”, or “The plight that we are facing today are caused by Mr. MM failure to pave way for better leadership in Malaysia”, will I be penalised for voicing out my opinion in a public sphere?

Should any Malaysian living abroad share a news report that they read in that country which is damning to Malaysia and voice out their concern, will they be penalised too? Where is the protection to our freedom of speech then? Where is our freedom to voice out our opinion? Where is our right to be concern? Where is our right to disagree?

How can we claim to be a free society if we don’t respect the people’s right to free speech and expression without the fear of retaliation, censorship or sanction? Even online trolls, that I fundamentally disagree with and utterly despise, especially the way they harass and abuse other people, I would still not take away their right to voice out their opinion, although I sincerely hope that they would do away with their obscene name calling and slanderous abuse. For the most part, Malaysian do not stoop to their level of intelligence, but even the trolls are but a small price to pay for a free society.

Please, do not, for one second think that people who disagree with you are unpatriotic. Not one Malaysian that I know hate this land; what we hate is the oppressive way we are being govern; what we hate is the way we are continuously being segregated; what we hate is the way we are made to feel that we are never good enough for this country; what we hate is the way Malaysia is becoming a laughing stock; what we hate is how the leadership promote discourse among the people instead of bringing us closer; what we hate is how corruption, nepotism, criminal cover-ups are ruining and tearing this country apart; what we hate is that we are being made fools by the very people we elected to represent us.
04/04/2018 4:36 PM
saydon As you can see Dato’ Sri, these are just some of the concern I have regarding the Bill, I could list out more hypothetical scenarios, but I wouldn’t want to take more of your time, and I think you already get the picture that I am trying to show you.

The Bill’s vague and broad definition could easily include honest and marginal mistakes as well as statements that may be a matter of opinion. You can see why I would think that the Bill were designed to safe-guard the present-day government, instead of Malaysian citizens as it will justify for the present-day government’s future action to hunt down journalists, human right activist and defender as well as critics. Shouldn’t the law of the land protects her citizens like the Sexual Offences Against Children Bill 2017 that you introduced, instead of victimising them?


Your esteemed colleague, Datuk Seri Nazri was quoted by The Star on November 25th 2017 (Headline – Nazri : Barisan should learn from Trump) saying that Barisan Nasional should take heed of US President Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign strategy, is this what he was referring to? To follow the strategy of a man who clearly has great disdain for the truth? A man who clearly is a misogynist, sexist, homophobic, racist, bigoted, arrogant, corrupt and time-and-time again proven liar?

Yes, Trump won the presidential election, but at what cost? Do we really want to push Malaysia more into divisiveness than to address the problems and work together towards a better future?

Fact, not Act is what the people need. 
Fact, not Act is what will protect Malaysians from Fake News.

Thank you.

Your Fellow Malaysian,
Aiman Syaaban Azahari
1st April 2018,
Kampung Beserah, Kuantan, Pahang.
04/04/2018 4:40 PM
apolloang history repeat itself......1st is penny stocks,then 2nd liners,blue chips start falling
04/04/2018 4:42 PM
hollandking what is causing it to happened?
04/04/2018 4:43 PM
GoodCompanies SSlee and kunixian,
I just showed you the evidence of no money taken based on DOJ. Now you continue to hype on corruption of pm whateverlah. Just answer the evidence with facts.
You said talk is cheap, indeed, your writing is too cheap.

To choivo, I BET YOU RM1,000.
If there is a Malay tsunami as you claimed, I will pay RM1,000.
If there is no Malay tsunami, then you pay me RM1,000.

Now it is that cheap isn't it?
09/04/2018 9:33 AM
limch Not Pakatan will abolish toll if takeover Putrajaya?

Posted by albert787378 > Apr 12, 2018 11:29 PM | Report Abuse
take North–South Expressway for example , NSE started collecting toll in 1981. after 37 years ,you still have to pay toll.now you know the problem.toll collection will stay on and on if you do not do something about it. vote for your future.
24/04/2018 3:53 AM


 

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