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Choivo Capital

Author: Choivo Capital   |   Latest post: Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 02:51 AM

 

(CHOIVO CAPITAL) Instant profit from buying stocks! You don't need people's opinion to know how rich you are.

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Back in the 1910’s, basically late 19th century and 20th century. John D Rockerfella was considered to be one of richest and most powerful man in the country, via his ownership of most of the petroleum refinery in the United States.


However, oddly enough, his official net worth only really shot up, when Congress demanded he split up his flagship company “Standard Oil” into various companies and list them publicly. Valued separately, the prices shot up, and cemented his position as the richest man in the world. Adjusted for inflation, he was worth USD400 billion at his peak.

However, imagine this, his business, his wealth and power was really the same before the split and after the split with no major change. The only thing that changed is people’s perception of how rich he is. Which has no relation with how much he is intrinsically worth.

Wealth for the most part, is an illusion.

Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world. However, till today amazon has barely made USD10 billion total in profit, however, the company is valued at almost USD800 billion. Imagine that. A relatively strong case can be made for Amazon to be worth half or 25% of what its worth today. Though to be fair, there’s a very deep moat surrounding Amazon.

I think when investing, one needs to have a relatively strong focus on what you are intrinsically worth, instead of what Mr Market tells you what you’re worth.
 

 

Putting it into practice.

Now, using local examples. INSAS and PLENITUDE.

They are currently selling at RM0.88 (intrinsic is about RM2.2), and RM1.52 (intrinsic is about RM5-6 if they unlock properly)

If one were to offer RM1.6 or RM2.5 to the current owners, they would be laughed out of the room.

Why? Because they know what the company is really worth and thus by extension what they are really worth. Now to be fair this is because they have control.

But more importantly, it’s because they look at shares as fractional ownership of a company, not pieces of paper with fluctuating values that can be easily liquidated. In their case, they are too rich to be easily liquidated anyway. Most people do not see shares this way.

What happens when you see shares as fractional shares of a business, better yet, a Sdn Bhd business (long term)?

The impossible becomes possible.

One can now make money the moment you purchase a share! To better see it, create your own apportioned consolidated financial statements and use that as your scorecard.

When I buy one share of Plenitude, i assume already made a profit of at least RM2 instantly!

When I buy one share of Insas, I assume I already made a profit of at least RM1 instantly!

Now, this works particularly well for buying high NTA companies for prices far below book value, as long as management is honest and relatively competent.

For companies one would value based on earnings, it wouldn’t be as easy to determine your instant profit, without seeming instantly delusional. However, it helps immensely in avoiding severely overpriced stocks, and making the unnecessary profit, ie profit from a bubble.

If I were to pay the previous price of RM2.8 for one share of MYEG, I would assume that I instantly lost RM1 at least and thus would never touch it.

On the converse, it would mean I would also not have earned the speculative paper profit during its run up from say RM1.5 to RM2.8.

To avoid speculative loss due to bubbles, one must avoid speculative profit from bubbles. And that is something I’m perfectly comfortable with. As I don’t need people to tell me what I’m worth, I know what I’m worth.

 

Conclusion

By using long term money only, with very little to no margin, as well as looking at shares as fractional ownership of a business, and using your own consolidated financial statements (instead of what random people tell you) as a measure of results, like how a businessman would. One is able to make instant profit the moment one buys a stock!

As Graham says, “Investing is most intelligent when its most business-like”. I would add that its very profitable as well! On the basis of my consolidated financial statement, im doing fantastically well this year.

Whenever price drops, instead of lamenting like everyone. I just get more and more excited! 

As always, let me know if you disagree, or have a completely different perspective. Id like to know if im coming at it wrongly.

====================================================================

Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com

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  2 people like this.
 
Flintstones I suggest you do more analysis on both companies on what it was historically valued and where it was historically traded
02/06/2018 09:03
Fabien Extraordinaire well, i dont mind waiting 5-10 years for Insas to reach its intrinsic value. and when it does, you go back and look at the annualised return over the 10 year period and still remain fantastic investments.

doenst add value looking at historical valuation/pricing; market is dynamic, business fundamental changes, perception of value changes, investment community behaviour changes, what matters is how the management increase the value (in the case of Insas, the increase in BV), there are so many ways for them to create value situation/ unlocking the value etc.

as Jon rightly pointed out, the one real advantage is patience.
02/06/2018 10:11
newbie911 Imagine u keep insas and pleneitude for last 5 year, what is your roi per year?

Theory and practical nt necessary correct.
02/06/2018 10:24
value88 I have experience in buying high NTA stocks which way below its book value, or so called net net stocks. I owned Plenitude and Insas years ago. This method of investment didn't work well.
I have changed my investment method to earning based, and my performance improved, at least in last few years but not in year 2018, u know why :)
02/06/2018 10:54
value88 The problem of asset based investment method is it is "passive". After buying, one has to wait and hope the stock's value can somehow be unlocked. It is not interesting and more importantly I didn't make money from this investment method after trying for some years..
02/06/2018 10:59
value88 Having said that, if I practice the asset based investment method in this year 2018, I probably would have lost much less money. Thus, this method is generally doesn't work well in bull market but good in bear market.
02/06/2018 11:01
value88 All in all, I will not revert back to asset based investment method.
02/06/2018 11:02
qqq3 what kind of article is that? if mind bending drugs is what u want, go ahead, your life your choice.
02/06/2018 13:15
qqq3 for the rest of us.... we stick to mark to market portfolio analysis
02/06/2018 13:16
Choivo Capital NTA picks consist of about 30% of my portfolio, because truth be told, I'd rather buy wonderful business.

What is your ROI? Well you don't lose money, which is number 1.

Look at myeg and karex etc. It's so easy to lose money when paying for earnings. Now, you don't even really know what's its really worth.

If I owned say Plenitude at 1.9, and it dropped to Rm1.3, I don't really mind, I can just buy more. Because I know what it's worth.

While it's very hard for me to say the same for liihen and latitude, despite them being relatively value based.

And value picks tend to lag behind the market, until they suddenly bear fruit. See HUAAN or Hengyuan, back in the day from the drop from RM4 to RM2.

Now, you may say why not make money else where? And try to time market.

I don't know how to time market. If you'd, you do that.
02/06/2018 13:39
Choivo Capital Plenitude and insas is like 5% total.
02/06/2018 13:45
qqq3 this is worth while

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/159254.jsp

And for those who want more diversification than KYY, you can read about my portfolio and how to built a portfolio by reading my posts here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600157964.jsp
02/06/2018 13:47
3iii Your posts on Insas and Plenitude illustrate companies that are undervalued.

In the absence of catalysts for their full value to be realised, these are value traps.

I will avoid them.

The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. :-)


http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,79139.0.html
02/06/2018 13:59
qqq3 value traps.................value traps are common traps for textbook investors and for beginners with no business sense.
02/06/2018 14:14
Choivo Capital I dont borrow. Im always solvent :)

I don't get trapped. I know what i bought and why. If i don't like it anymore, i sell. If the price drop, and i still like it. Ill buy more.

======================================================================
Posted by 3iii > Jun 2, 2018 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

Your posts on Insas and Plenitude illustrate companies that are undervalued.

In the absence of catalysts for their full value to be realised, these are value traps.

I will avoid them.

The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. :-)
03/06/2018 03:50
Flintstones You guys got to go easy on Jon. He is still very new to the market. Over time he will gain the much needed wisdom from the bourse
03/06/2018 10:07
CharlesT Still a new bird lah
03/06/2018 10:26
Choivo Capital Flintstone and CharlesT,

I must concede that my ego does not feel good when others call me a newbie. However, i do my best to take it into account, when evaluating my own ability.

I would say this. I am a newbie when it comes to putting my money on the line, however, prior to this, since i was in Form 1, i have always advised my parents as i've always been fascinated by investing since a very young age (you have "The Intelligent Investor" to blame for that, the logic just made perfect sense for my 11 year old mind). And i loved reading annual reports.

My very first investment was Airasia at RM3, back in 2013, when i was just very charmed by the man. And i averaged down like mad in 2016, once i've become alot wiser from 1.2 to 0.9.

I sold them all at 3.

I would say that from my light observation of roughly more than 10 years. Value always emerges. It just takes time. Its normal for value or NTA picks to lag behind the market, except when the value emerges, it emerges suddenly and with no warning. And next thing you know, that investment went from losing against the market for 6 years to beating it.

Even in KLSE. Everyone say KLSE market is different. Well, for me, KLSE market is young, money is not that deep. Which gives rise to much more inefficiencies compared to the US market. And inefficiencies means more bargains, and opportunities.

I bet a young WB would rather start in this market now, than the US market.

In any event, my timeframe is forever. I've never taken a single cent out from my portfolio, all dividends are reinvested in.

Some people collect cars, i collect stocks!
04/06/2018 13:12
kcchongnz “The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”

― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
04/06/2018 15:08
Aseng 1. I really missed KYY for his powerful charm to move the market

intrinsic can't bring you value if it can't arouse the euphoria sentiment

2. I agree with 3iii view

"In the absence of catalysts for their full value to be realised, these are value traps"


what you say?
04/06/2018 16:18
Aseng Buy ekovest ,

there are a lot of stories or catalyst coming on the way to move the price up high high
04/06/2018 16:24
Aseng Jon,

I know you rce is a good stock to buy
but i dare not buy
because I do not understand the business of a bank
if I buy then I do not not when to sell
04/06/2018 16:28
Choivo Capital Halite,

I wrote a little on how to understand financial institutions on a certain level. I doubt you can really understand it in detail. As most analyst don't too.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

Let me know what you think and if i missed out on anything.
04/06/2018 16:31
Choivo Capital My friend is part of a QS firm who services EKO in relation to their highways.

SOP wise, yes it might be undervalued. assuming their assets is worth that much.

But right now, most of the loans is due to the highway. And right now, net profit for highway barely enough to cover the loan interest. Might be because one of the highway not fully launch yet.

But the vast majority of their earnings come from construction, which was in line with Najib infra boom, if you study a few years back.

If those earnings go away. what is ekovest really worth?

Its not easy for me to determine. So i skip for now, but im looking as well.

But for propdev with construction, id rather buy more gadang (Disclosure, i have a small 1.5% position in the warrants).

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Posted by Halite > Jun 4, 2018 04:24 PM | Report Abuse

Buy ekovest ,

there are a lot of stories or catalyst coming on the way to move the price up high high
04/06/2018 16:34
Aseng Jon,
thanks,
You are a kind man
04/06/2018 16:35
Aseng do you know why a muslim country is rich,
because it is compulsory for a muslim to pay zakat

KYY will be richer because he makes himself donate more
04/06/2018 16:36
Aseng Jon,

you are thinking too much . this will make simple thing look difficult

let come to the basic.

what makes you think all the construction and highways income will go away

I don't think you can answer this question convincingly to most of the readers here including your good friend KCChong

my advice to you,

1. the previous gov is lousy doesn't mean the new gov is equally lousy
2. Believe that the new Gov we had created can do a good job


by the way, what make you think the new gov will be worse than a communist when dealing privatization or nationalization as many people had shouted

"ALWAYS LOOK TO THE BRIGHT SIDE , THEN GOD IS NEARER"



Jon Choivo: My friend is part of a QS firm who services EKO in relation to their highways.

SOP wise, yes it might be undervalued. assuming their assets is worth that much.

But right now, most of the loans is due to the highway. And right now, net profit for highway barely enough to cover the loan interest. Might be because one of the highway not fully launch yet.

But the vast majority of their earnings come from construction, which was in line with Najib infra boom, if you study a few years back.

If those earnings go away. what is ekovest really worth?

Its not easy for me to determine. So i skip for now, but im looking as well.

But for propdev with construction, id rather buy more gadang (Disclosure, i have a small 1.5% position in the warrants)
04/06/2018 16:58
Aseng when the gov says,
we want to abolish the tolls

it means
we want to help the people, all the people
it doesn't mean
it want to help certain group and kill certain group


if your belief is the later , then no point to create such turbulence in the market
04/06/2018 17:08
Aseng My belief,

if the gov want to abolish the toll, all the toll operators will be fairly compensated

ekovest will still be given an equal chance to tender for the maintenance job after giving up the highways
04/06/2018 17:11
Choivo Capital Dear Halite,

Yes, they will be.

but the i doubt Eko tolls will be affected, the main one is PLUS

My only question is, the vast majority of their earnings come from construction. Given that the boom is over, how is it going to affect their earnings?

In addition, lets say the infrastructure boom continues. How good is Ekovest without any crony connections? Can they still win contracts? This is also a really hard question.

Good luck to you, these questions are too hard for me. I've thought about it over the last few days.
04/06/2018 17:31
Aseng You still can not convince yourself PH can be better than BN

I can see, so far so good, PH is different from BN

PH not punishing Gkent, it is the market that punish Gkent

Do you not think it is still too early to judge PH?

Politic is a dynamic thing, there is not always an enemy or ally

3 years ago if I were to tell you Mahathir, Anwar and Lim ks can work together, you will certainly fight me back with 100 stories

3 years ago if I were to tell you UMNO will be discarded by the malay, you will certainly say i am naive

Do you think so?
04/06/2018 17:51
Aseng look at Mahathir's face,the ways he carries out his duties as a PM, NOT his past,
if ekovest , opcom or ewein will to bit for the job to clean the Klang river and gombak river , do you think ekovest will stand a zero chance to win the job?

if it is really the case as you said or imagined , then..........

"I LOSE HAPPILY"
04/06/2018 18:03
John_Lee Jon, don't quite share your view eh.

"One is able to make instant profit the moment one buys a stock!"

That is true if you are able to acquire the controlling stake of the company as you will then have control. You are also then able to leverage on the intrinsic value of the said company to earn future profits from your other ventures.

But it is fool's gold if you are a minority shareholder. Your only exit point is via the open market and the open market will not pay you your capital + 'instant profit'. From a cash flows point of view, you make no profit and neither are you in a position to make any.

What good is a profit that you cannot materialise?

In my opinion, theoretically you are correct, practically it is syiok sendiri.

My 2 sen.
04/06/2018 18:10
Aseng do not worry about the toll , it won't be cancelled in any foreseeable time
since it will not be cancelled, so it will remain a stronger and stronger cash cow to the company

do not worry about the construction, the order book has more 13B job to do , enough to keep the company busy for 5 years and secure more contract

do not worry the river of life, so far no player can play better than ekovest

do not worry about the properties, all the lands are at the prime area of big KL

APA LU TAKUT LAGI AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF 0.60 WHEREAS THE DUKE 1 AND 2 ALONE ALREADY WORTH MORE THAN 80 CENTS.
04/06/2018 18:19
Choivo Capital You are right in many respects and imprecise in some.

Try and ask Teh Hong Piow, what is his exit point for public bank? Probably, at his death. Very few major shareholders actually get to exit their investment, because their holdings is so large, the amount of people who can buy from them is so small.

What good is Teh Hong Piow's profit on Public Bank if he cannot materialize?

What good is One Utama to its private owners if they are not materializing it?

What good is Warren Buffet shares in Berkshire, if he cannot materialize? Even worse, in his case, he don't even get dividend, and salary only USD100k!

As i do not have control, i require a much large discount than something i would have control over!

And why do i want control? If i think the management is good and have very high skin in game (large shareholdings), why i nothing to do, want to go and work morning to night to manage a business i have no expertise in, when i have good management around?

Just sit back and collect dividend lah! No dividend? Its ok! Is the monies being reinvested back into the business? Yes? If yes, is the return on equity of the business superior to what i can obtain? If Yes? No issue, continue.

Public bank can get 14.88% return on each dollar invested like clockwork and it got more than 20% over more than 50 years. You think you can or not? I'm not sure i can.

Let the brilliant Teh Hong Piow and gang work for me, i got other things to do.

Unfortunately, i dont have Public Bank. T_T




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John_Lee Jon, don't quite share your view eh.

"One is able to make instant profit the moment one buys a stock!"

That is true if you are able to acquire the controlling stake of the company as you will then have control. You are also then able to leverage on the intrinsic value of the said company to earn future profits from your other ventures.

But it is fool's gold if you are a minority shareholder. Your only exit point is via the open market and the open market will not pay you your capital + 'instant profit'. From a cash flows point of view, you make no profit and neither are you in a position to make any.

What good is a profit that you cannot materialise?

In my opinion, theoretically you are correct, practically it is syiok sendiri.

My 2 sen.
04/06/2018 18:10
06/06/2018 20:54
Whey Whey Ohhhhhh now only I realize this guy wrote articles too. Now i feel glad after reading most people's comments here about his theory. Newbies, syiok sendiri, sound work in theory but not in practical etc...! No wonder i feel funny when he keep attacking me in rcecap forum when i talk about price support TA analysis all. Want to show off but only syiok sendiri. Well said guys. Hahahahaha.
07/06/2018 05:32
Choivo Capital Haha whey whey, you damn cute lah. I hope you dont lose too much money in the market.

Its clear you got nothing of worth to say when you just go around and backbite people whilst having zero substance.

Argue your points on TA properly. Im personally curious.

===================================================================================
Whey Whey Ohhhhhh now only I realize this guy wrote articles too. Now i feel glad after reading most people's comments here about his theory. Newbies, syiok sendiri, sound work in theory but not in practical etc...! No wonder i feel funny when he keep attacking me in rcecap forum when i talk about price support TA analysis all. Want to show off but only syiok sendiri. Well said guys. Hahahahaha.
07/06/2018 05:32
07/06/2018 20:17
LaoTzeAhSir Whey whey has nothing substantial and constructive to offer... a.k.a. tin kosong
07/06/2018 22:28
Whey Whey Ohh u still got so much to learn new bird HAHAHAHA. Now I don't even care what u said anymore...I will just laugh out loudly reading readers comments :)

Posted by newbie911 > Jun 2, 2018 10:24 AM | Report Abuse

Imagine u keep insas and pleneitude for last 5 year, what is your roi per year?

Theory and practical nt necessary correct.

Posted by qqq3 > Jun 2, 2018 01:15 PM | Report Abuse

what kind of article is that? if mind bending drugs is what u want, go ahead, your life your choice.

Posted by qqq3 > Jun 2, 2018 02:14 PM | Report Abuse

value traps.................value traps are common traps for textbook investors and for beginners with no business sense.

Posted by CharlesT > Jun 3, 2018 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

Still a new bird lah


Posted by Flintstones > Jun 3, 2018 10:07 AM | Report Abuse

You guys got to go easy on Jon. He is still very new to the market. Over time he will gain the much needed wisdom from the bourse


Posted by Jon Choivo > Jun 7, 2018 08:17 PM | Report Abuse

Haha whey whey, you damn cute lah. I hope you dont lose too much money in the market.

Its clear you got nothing of worth to say when you just go around and backbite people whilst having zero substance.

Argue your points on TA properly. Im personally curious.
07/06/2018 23:01
Whey Whey Mind ur own business la. Don't be a kepoh like aunty, go get some life. If u are sick pls go take ur medicine k?

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > Jun 7, 2018 10:28 PM | Report Abuse

Whey whey has nothing substantial and constructive to offer... a.k.a. tin kosong
07/06/2018 23:04
LaoTzeAhSir Whey Whey. your intellect is no where near to Jon. we can all see that. you go sell protein better
07/06/2018 23:12
cheoky maybe is idea regardless bad or good in the eyes of value investor/speculator, dont take it to extreme. then u might become better. buddha mid path hahaha. that the best
07/06/2018 23:16
Alex™ The talk between value and growth investing again.
07/06/2018 23:22
Whey Whey Ya whatever hahahaha


Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > Jun 7, 2018 11:12 PM | Report Abuse

Whey Whey. your intellect is no where near to Jon. we can all see that. you go sell protein better
07/06/2018 23:54
Choivo Capital Whey whey,

Why am I a long term fundamental only investor?

One, because it makes perfect sense to me.

And two, because I failed miserably as a short term, ta speculator in the 2 months I was one.

If you work better as the second. Do that. I have no idea how to make money consistently and over a long period of time like that.
09/06/2018 13:01
Choivo Capital I don't think it's a growth Vs value argument.

All sound investments are by nature value investment. Because you want a good price for whatever it is you're buying, and that includes growth.

My timecom pick is a growth story for sure. And my property development picks are growth stocks selling for almost liquidation price!
09/06/2018 13:47
enigmatic wait 5 years to prove them wrong.
24/07/2018 11:56


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