Highlights

Choivo Capital

Author: Choivo Capital   |   Latest post: Sat, 6 Jul 2019, 5:16 PM

 

(CHOIVO CAPITAL) In the market, nobody is your friend.

Author:   |    Publish date:


One of the most common questions in the forum here is.

  1. Can buy ah?
  2. What is the TP?
  3. Should I sell?

To the people naïve enough to ask these questions. What makes you think the answers from people with their own agenda’s and self-interest be of any use to you?

The only thing people are interested in the market, is to take the better end of the trade. No matter if you’re a long term investor, or short term speculator. Everyone wants to be the one with the better deal. And the only way to do it, is to give someone the short end of the stick.

I play cash poker often. And there is a saying in poker. “There’s always a patsy (someone everyone wins money off) at the table, if you don’t know who it is, it is you!”

Everybody wants to sell their overpriced shares to you, and everyone wants to buy cheap shares from you. And everybody wants your hard earned savings.

I and kcchongnz want you to sell your cheap shares to me, Icon8888 and OTB wants you to buy their shares from them when it’s expensive. Stockraider really wants to make money from ah moi’s selling vegetable and lose most of it to pondan’s.

 

There are a few kinds of people who want your money.

 

  1. The detailed quarter predictors

They are a few people that do this, some for their private clients, some write it out.

For those that do it for their private clients, their interest is first their own, and second their private clients. You will only know after they bought. Nothing wrong with it, but you need to know.

One of the funniest thing I read recently, was while I was in the following blog post

“LIONIND – The massive 900,000 ton Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) Plant 100% EXPORT at PE = 1”

I asked a few questions on the writers assumptions and thought process, and for some reason, someone took offence to my questioning, and said:


“The whole article consists of extensive network of data points taken from numerous sources, it took the author tremendous effort to piece together the whole picture. For that, his effort should be commended, not belittled.”

Wow, it was as if the person was buddha doing charity, and my purpose in life is to be supportive of him

Why do people write these articles?

When sudden and unexpected earnings occur, especially if people did not expect it beforehand, the price of the stock will shoot up suddenly. HUAAN, PARKSON, FLBHD and a few more I can remember, nobody expected the sudden rise in earnings. These companies, rose 50% to a few hundred percent after the earnings, even though there was zero articles about them previously.

So clearly, if you know you are right, the logical move is to shut up, keep buying as much as possible, and when result fly, sell, instead of increasing your cost by letting people know too.

Now, before we continue, let’s be clear. It is perfectly fine to do this. Ethics at the end of the day, comes down to how your look at the world. Some people don’t buy gambling, drinking ot smoking stocks, I don’t have such qualms. In fact, warren buffet famously does not own smoking or gambling companies, but he is fine with buying their stock. Ethics is largely a grey area.

So why do people like to write these articles? Especially those with clickbait titles?

Because, they think there is a reasonable chance their prediction will come true, but, THEY ARE NOT SURE!

Therefore, the logical move for them, is to first buy up their position. They will then cherry pick the best data and perspectives, and then weave a narrative, in a clear and easy to follow manner, about how the profit WILL go up.

Do note, they won’t tell you the things they are unsure about, or the expected value of the trade, and how it shifts as sentiment, and prices change or about the unknown factors that will fuck it up, or about other opportunities in the market (despite investing and trading being comparison between different opportunities) .

The argument will be very convincing as they have done their study, espeacially for the average person with low critical thinking, limited mental models, no investment philosphy beyond anything that make money, and shallow knowledge of the markets. 

Some of them, will even be very proactive is answering questions. Why? The goal is to get you to buy and push up the price, and if even possible, whip up sentiment.

Now, if successful, before the future profit figure even materialized, the price of the stock will have fully risen, and they can now either get out of their position, or sell down some of it (depending on how sure they are) and close out their profit.

Ever wonder why you bought a stock expecting stronger profit, but when the stronger profit came, the stock price went down?

Well, it’s because it was priced in. People sold the second the result with the good profit came out, because everyone wanted to sell at that time.

It’s not just about what you know, it’s what you know and what everybody knows. If you know the same thing everybody knows, you are fucked. You want to know things that people do not know.

 

  1. The investors

Again they are very similar. They own the stock already, but because the stock have low visibility, they now write about the economic advantages of it after building the position. Often, the company is really not that amazing to begin with, it might be good-ish, and pretty attractive valuation wise, but it just isn’t fantastic.

Ie, they are usually cost based businesses, with little moat. The kind of company you don’t really feel like holding for a long time, and whose economic characteristic could deteriorate over time, even with a large margin of error, and so you write a post to move it along.

It always strike me as odd when people ask me to recommend a company.

Now, companies like the above, I have no problems recommending. In fact, I wrote a short bit on FLBHD, INSAS etc in the comments at RM1 and RM0.8.

But when the company is fantastic, AND available for a fantastic price. One would want to buy as much as possible, for as long as possible. Why would you ever want to share your recommendation and potentially increase your cost price? Even when I interview for analyst positions, I don’t talk about them.

Having said that, there is also another time, when one would be willing to write about a fantastic company. It’s when the price is a little expensive or above fair value.

In which case, you might need a little goreng help, or you want to be damn bloody sure. And the best way to find out the right answer on the internet, is to write the wrong one! Haha.

In my case, I wrote my piece on TIMECOM, because  i really really liked the company, but it wasn’t cheap to begin with, and if I am wrong, I would like to know as soon as possible, because the margin of safety is low

Not out of charity, but to protect my capital.

 

Conclusion

Good luck, and if you’ve determined that you are the patsy, ie, the person everyone is making money from, I would suggest you go and buy the Chinese index. Its very cheap now, and you will beat 50% of the market right away.

And you will have time to do things other than read annual reports!

Me on the other hand, love reading annual reports. To each his own. Haha.

====================================================================

Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com

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  5 people like this.
 
soojinhou Jon, your article is very offensive because it suggests that people who espouse quarter to quarter strategy carries an ulterior motive to ensnare the investing public for self-benefit. Despite our different strategies, you may be surprised that actually I find most what you wrote agreeable, and most suited for passive investment, where one gets reasonably good return with minimum effort. Guess what general advice I dispense to people? If you do not have the time to monitor the stocks you buy, or the appetite for adventure, then you should not buy what I buy. You should instead follow KC Chong’s method of low risk steady return, similar to yours.

I’m an engineer by training. I make money by understanding things around me and try to use knowledge as a tool to gain superior returns. At the time of writing, I never fool people into believing things that are untrue. However, because macro environment changes quickly, there’s no telling how long a conducive business environment can last.

Sure I’ve written about stocks that went Holland. In fact, I recently got bitten by my first fraud case in my investment career. But then, I also had AEM that returned 1100% in 2 years. I made a tidy sum from O&G theme in 2012, furniture theme in 2014 as well as technology theme in 2016, all of which lasted at least a year before business environment turned sour. Not only for me, many i3 forumers too made good money employing short term thematic strategy.

Point is, in a high risk high reward quarter to quarter strategy, nobody can accurately predict what will come next. But that doesn’t mean promoters wrote what they wrote with the specific intention of ensnaring the gullible public. A homerun like AEM was achieved based on an understanding of their product and just 1 quarter of good result. Just as AEM was a magnificent call, I also lost money in ND Paper when I was slow to respond to China’s cutting waste paper import quota causing waste paper price to rise substantially. I don't blame other's, I blame myself for being slow to react.

The holier than thou attitude of yours is disgusting. None of us ever claim to be gods of fortune, we just share what we can piece together with whatever information we get to understand the complex world around us, and hopefully in the process make some money from our effort. Sometimes, when forecasts turns out the way we envisioned, the sky rained gold, sometimes, when forecasts turn awry, we get a river of blood. We take higher risks, and we demand higher returns, and most of us work diligently to see the road ahead before it becomes obvious and the stock re-rate.

Ultimately, I agree with your title. In the market, nobody is your friend. If you have no intention of putting in effort, then don’t buy volatile stocks. There’s always Public Bank for the uninitiated and uninterested. But that doesn’t mean those who dabble in them and write about them are evil who is trying to find the next victim. Your article is absolutely offensive and I’ve no intention of wasting any more time replying to you.
26/08/2018 11:55 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Wow ! Hahaha
Long page ...
Interestingly
26/08/2018 11:58 AM
Dato Seri John Lu I like soojinhou written. Soojinhou has said what I want to say & Soojinhou england also par with you same powerful.
26/08/2018 12:00 PM
3iii >>>Posted by CharlesT > Aug 26, 2018 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

So far for those who tried to make use of i3 for biz...

1.Otb is still the most successful
2.Kc chong ok only
3.CPTeh used to be ok in the beginning but zero result in the last few years
4.Superkoon started as a god n now becomes dog
5.Bones kena SC tangkap

Many many tried their luck here but i dont see them now

Harry did quite well but he doesnt really comes to i3<<<


Lovely.

Who is Harry?
26/08/2018 12:03 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Harryteo or harryt30. Always do fb live one. A young chap from sabah/sarawak. Wife is phamacist
26/08/2018 12:04 PM
3iii Thks
26/08/2018 12:13 PM
Up_down Some people look short sighted or ignorant. They don’t know when and how to make use of the articles written by sifus. That’s most valuable resources in i3. The articles may or may not relevant at the time of writing but it certainly useful in future when the conditions is rightfully presented as most companies are cyclical in nature.
26/08/2018 12:17 PM
kcchongnz Posted by cheated_ > Aug 26, 2018 10:35 AM | Report Abuse
If HRC(OTB, KYY, Kc all promoted before) cannot reach RM 10(some even said RM 42) how to say promoters are friend?


KC promoted HRC? When, where?

If you got cheated,look at the mirror. That is the one responsible for it.

In the earlier years in i3investor, I wrote some articles on my analysis of companies to share with i3investors readers on the philosophy, methodologies, process of fundamental investing. Never have the intention to promote any stock. What for?

In this few years, I still write a lot of articles, but mostly were educational pieces on fundamental investing. I hardly write about any particular stock, unless I found it heavily promoted with some bad intention and practices such as margin finance to the public, and I didn't see the attraction of the company.

You may say I promote my investment course, which is true, but that is more of a social service to the public.
26/08/2018 12:17 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Harry greatest pick = frontkn around 26 - 28c. I curi curi follow him. Out around 75c. The rest of his other pick i didnt follow
26/08/2018 12:17 PM
Dato Seri John Lu These are some of the free tips earn me a few bungalow

Icon - Comcorp + sea cucumber/ AA / Supermx / HYC

Paper - Kesm / HYC / Dataprep

OTB - HYC / Lion / Mycon / Masteel

David - HYC

Leoting - Annjoo / Ssteel / Lion and his detail analysis in oil and gas influence me to bet big in Hibiscus

Harry - Frontkn

Kyy - HYC

Posted by Up_down > Aug 26, 2018 12:17 PM | Report Abuse

Some people look short sighted or ignorant. They don’t know when and how to make use of the articles written by sifus. That’s most valuable resources in i3. The articles may or may not relevant at the time of writing but it certainly useful in future when the conditions is rightfully presented as most companies are cyclical in nature.
26/08/2018 12:33 PM
calvintaneng Whoa!

Today is a rest day!

Still so busy? Go read up www.chick.com

For bro Jonathan Choivo he is like a mirror

He is also like a torch light!

Everywhere he goes he shines & bring to light all the hidden agenda & misdeeds of people. Some real or some imagined.

Now so many are ruffled? Stirred in anger?

Don't!

Calm down calm down.

If you are not guilty then what he said won't affect you.

But what he said about you is true then better do a personal soul searching today.

BRAVO JON CHOIVO

ONE AGAINST A THOUSAND?

CALVIN GIVES YOU FULL SUPPORT

YES!!! DON'T BE AFRAID. SHOOT AND FIRE ALL YOUR AMMUNITION!!!

BABG!

BANG!!

BANG!!!

HOORAY!!!
26/08/2018 12:34 PM
Up_down We see the opportunity for understanding more about the company or industry from the insight of articles. The article may be presented with unwarranted personal opinion or projections. If look from a wider perspective, normally it’s well supported with facts and conditions of the business at that time. I don’t think many would stay in i3 if those articles has vanished. We should appreciate sifus efforts and contributions.
26/08/2018 12:37 PM
Alex™ Cool down everyone, I charge 4k only
26/08/2018 12:40 PM
apolloang I charge for free,but only apply for needy person only not for crazy rich Asians....hehe
26/08/2018 12:42 PM
Alex™ Apollo bro, I'm a needy person... Haha
26/08/2018 12:44 PM
Alex™ I need to put food on my family table, my aging dad, my brothers, my rental, my rm4. 50 pork mee, my rm5 mixed rice...
26/08/2018 12:44 PM
apolloang u want how much? hahaha
26/08/2018 12:46 PM
Alex™ I already got 100k,i just need stable growth of wealth... I will follow u closely haha... If win u get credit, if loss I swallow. I have posted near 10k post in i3 and you should know my character. Hehe...
26/08/2018 12:48 PM
Up_down Ask the writer to shoot more......what good deed he is accumulating for he himself. Do you think he would get immune from what he has written from making a good decision in investing or trading? Lolz
26/08/2018 12:49 PM
apolloang 100k only cannot even buy a merc....hahaha
26/08/2018 12:50 PM
Alex™ Dun laugh me la... I still drive mahathir iswara manual... Kolian lo
26/08/2018 12:51 PM
Alex™ Amoi also duwan sit my car...
26/08/2018 12:51 PM
apolloang ok,if I got good pick I let u know,u can sailang wif ur 100k to buy a merc or bmw.but not everyday I will sailang,once a blue moon only can do that like my MI.....hehe
26/08/2018 12:52 PM
apolloang my car engine cos more than your car....hahaha
26/08/2018 12:52 PM
Dato Seri John Lu 100K already richer than TanEnd
26/08/2018 12:53 PM
Alex™ Haha... Thx bro.. Many appreciate. Even no stock pick also can, just keep sharing your experience already help me alot.
26/08/2018 12:54 PM
Up_down KB made so much money. I just earned a condo from HY and steels.

Posted by Koon Bee > Aug 26, 2018 12:33 PM | Report Abuse

These are some of the free tips earn me a few bungalow

Icon - Comcorp + sea cucumber/ AA / Supermx / HYC

Paper - Kesm / HYC / Dataprep

OTB - HYC / Lion / Mycon / Masteel

David - HYC

Leoting - Annjoo / Ssteel / Lion and his detail analysis in oil and gas influence me to bet big in Hibiscus

Harry - Frontkn

Kyy - HYC
26/08/2018 1:02 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Wait for my bungalow completed (now still under construction) then I will do open house and invite all those sifu and I cook Icon most favourite sea cucumber for u all ok
26/08/2018 1:06 PM
calvintaneng This one good
https://www.chick.com/reading/tracts/0001/0001_01.asp
26/08/2018 1:06 PM
CharlesT Wah bro koon bee earned a few bungalow???

How i wish Jon dont bank in rm5k for his fengsui name by 1.30pm tmr so that i can use it for myself...

Anyway since i oredi offered him 48 hours to reply ytd hv to keep my promise..

Only wish that jon will spend his time to write more to hentam sifu sifu here so he will miss my offer...
26/08/2018 1:17 PM
CharlesT I always mention here bsides ta n fa n biz sense etc etc fengsui is much more important

If i m not mistaken koon bee is a poor hawker just like me not long ago before i gave him the name of koon bee...thats was barely 3 years ago...
26/08/2018 1:19 PM
Alex™ Wah ah John... Lihai wor... U my sifu liao~
26/08/2018 1:20 PM
CharlesT What for selling tips to few waterfish here for rm5k? Can be rich ah? Can buy bungalow ah? Can change yr life ah?
26/08/2018 1:20 PM
Alex™ I have a friend selling me mlm. She said can change my life~~~~want join? Kiki
26/08/2018 1:22 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 I wonder is koonbee still char kuey tiaow for time killing ?
Or just enjoy by the seaside with his braised seacucumber soup .... ;)
26/08/2018 1:23 PM
Alex™ Vensifu long time no see... Hehe...
26/08/2018 1:24 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Yes CharlesT sifu...last time koon bee just a char kueh teow chinaapek now my kueh teow stall pass to my worker for free already. With koon bee good fengshui name + all those sifu free tips + i curi curi follow them...really huat like those crazy rich asia.
26/08/2018 1:24 PM
CharlesT I hope jon to miss my offer n then i just use the fengsui name myself...after i make money i will buy a bungalow next to koon bee
26/08/2018 1:25 PM
Dato Seri John Lu I curi curi tell u all, recently i also curo curi buy EG curi curi follow Ven sifu tips...i remember last time i curi curi follow Ven sifu JHM also huat. Hopes EG will be like JHM but I only curi buy abit because I dont really like KPK.
26/08/2018 1:28 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Cipak teh from keropok to tuisyen to cohort to cut loss to waterfall amd now averaging.

The source from insider, his keropok business earn him the most.
26/08/2018 1:34 PM
calvintaneng Posted by Koon Bee > Aug 26, 2018 01:28 PM | Report Abuse

I curi curi tell u all, recently i also curo curi buy EG curi curi follow Ven sifu tips...i remember last time i curi curi follow Ven sifu JHM also huat. Hopes EG will be like JHM but I only curi buy abit because I dont really like KPK.


WHOA!!

This madam Koonbee got 3 hands ar?

2 hands for char keow teow

1 extra hand for curi curi buy shares?

Curi curi buy Calvin's EG?
See http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/160208.jsp

Wahaha!

Better sell all EG to madam koonbee!!

EG already up!!! Hohoho!

Better buy ones that are still cheap

Hmmm?

These ones:

1) GUH http://eaglevisioninvest.com/guh-stands-for-good-undervalue-happily-accumulating-let-calvin-tan-research-tells-you-the-reasons-why/

2) INSAS https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/167099.jsp

3) TALAMT
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/170878.jsp
26/08/2018 1:49 PM
qqq3 and kc

whether I 100k or 100 million, no difference because I feel a 100 million.....
26/08/2018 2:05 PM
qqq3 tell you what.....

no more extremely low PE sector...after the 2008 crisis , have 10 years to recover ....steel the last of mohicans? various sectors have been pushed up and down already, some gets raped so badly, even years later cannot recover.

After the next results, two things can happen......the steel shares gets whacked up to average PEs...or more likely, it becomes obvious earnings are declining and outlook not good.....justifying both the trading prices and the low PEs.....
26/08/2018 4:05 PM
qqq3 kc the professor got the business sense to comment or see it coming?
26/08/2018 4:06 PM
qqq3 People like to quote Buffetology the Buffalo....

makes sense or not, NOW?

Buy and hold for eternity....at this stage?

In America, even if only 1 in 10 companies become national champions...the whole portfolio makes money...

In Malaysia, how?

Malaysia no capital gains tax, America got capital gains tax....many many other structural differences....Buffetology makes sense in Malaysia?
26/08/2018 5:41 PM
qqq3 Look at Wall Street ...went to invest in emerging markets........................they make money or not?

if currency didn't kill them....other mistakes will kill them already....
26/08/2018 5:43 PM
value88 SooJinHou, well said and good comments.
Pride is the root of all evil. There is no wisdom in pride.
26/08/2018 9:37 PM
TakeProfits Wah Jon, you hantam cukup cukup yar, your points of view. Wah chan hai yah.
Enjoy Jon...
27/08/2018 1:09 AM
Choivo Capital No, you get nothing guaranteed, beyond a pretty decent understanding of personal finance companies.

Alternatively, that person can go read up on the history of credit cards and personal finance since 1960, a couple books on psychology, and learn how to value financial institutions.

I think that is more worth it than to pay me RM5k. But if you big boss with big position in the company im talking about and lazy read, pay me, i'll tell you and give you a very well balanced and thought out answer

==
CharlesT What for selling tips to few waterfish here for rm5k? Can be rich ah? Can buy bungalow ah? Can change yr life ah?
26/08/2018 13:20
28/08/2018 8:34 PM
Choivo Capital Whipping up sentiment takes a long time.

Airasia sentiment took how long to whip up? You think just pure fundamentals? Hengyuan sentiment took how long to whip up? You telling me you still holding and waiting for PE10?

Trading that pop, is up to you. Maybe you're an angel and never traded that pop, but most people are not angels. And i doubt you didnt, because i sure would if i did.



====
Icon8888 Don't be a two headed snake. You accused me of pump and dump "Icon8888, he buy already mah. After article, up few %, can trade that pop, easily few k d. If he can whip up the sentiment, easily few hundred k. "

Is Icon8888 a pump and dump or is he not ? Make up your mind, don't speak with both sides of your lips.

You are really getting out of control. See you Baby Jon.
28/08/2018 8:38 PM


 

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