Highlights

Choivo Capital

Author: Choivo Capital   |   Latest post: Sat, 6 Jul 2019, 5:16 PM

 

(CHOIVO CAPITAL) Adventurous Investing/Speculation?

Author:   |    Publish date:


One of the most common comments I get is that if I were more adventurous, I would make more money in the stock market. And often, I will be getting these from people who I consider to be worth listening to.

Whenever I get a criticism here, whether I consider it valid or not at first glance, I will take some time to consider it seriously, and this was one comment, because of how often it pops up, I’ve spent quite some time considering it.

 

Samples of these comments are as follows.

 

Icon8888 This portfolio too politically correct

With your skills , brain and experience, should be more adventurous

02/01/2018 11:42

 

Posted by CharlesT > Aug 31, 2018 07:05 AM | Report Abuse

How old are u? If u r really 20+ years old i think u could be the smartest young chap i hv ever seen....

If u could be a little bit more adventerous u can do very well in stock mkt i believe

 

Posted by value88 > Aug 31, 2018 10:10 AM | Report Abuse

CharlesT said it well. If Jon can be more adventurous and not that conservative and rigid in stock investment, he would do very well with his knowledge. I can also benefit by following his picks.

But with what he is now, I would not be interested in his picks.

 

Posted by VenFx > Aug 31, 2018 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

Haha jon the adventurous legend.

Walk the path

Baru cross check with theory

Better if u can earn your own formula

Anyway like to your story juga.

 

 

Why I find it hard to digest.

The problem with that statement is, it came from people worth listening to, so I have to assume they know what they’re talking about, and is not just drunk on animal spirits, or have had previous successes doing stupid things gone to their heads.

For me, risk means the permanent loss of capital due to miscalculated risk and reward ratios.

The expected value of high risk, high reward investments and low risk, low reward investments is exactly the same.

For example,

  1. 10 high risk, high reward investment of RM1,000 each, for a total of RM10,000.
  2. 10 low risk, low reward investment of RM1,000 each, for a total of RM10,000.

For the person making the high risk high reward investment, 5 of his investment go to zero, while the other 5 makes 240%. He ends up with RM12,000, and a return of 20%.

For the person making the low risk low reward investment, none of his investment died, and all returned 20%. He ends up with RM12,000, and a return of 20%.

I personally have no problem making high risk, high reward investments or bets, if the odds are right. I personally bet a few thousand (small amounts for some of you) on the election results, for PH winning. And as it paid 3:1, I made five figures.

Why? Well, I figured the odds of PH winning was more like 50%. And people seem to think that they only have 20-30% max odds of winning. As there was a mispricing, and despite all of the few thousand being l

I figured the people above understood the following concepts before making those comments, and thus I studied further.

I tried to understand further by first identifying the differentiating factors between being “intelligent” and “adventurous”

 

 

 

What is the difference between investing or speculating intelligently, versus investing or speculating adventurously?

 

What is investing intelligently or speculating intelligently?

An intelligent investment, is where you try to buy something that is worth RM1 for much less than that. And the way we determine how something can be different, and so we can have many different values. But the concept is the same, to pay significantly less than what you think its worth.

An intelligent speculation, is where you make an educated guess as to where the price of something will be in the future, given the information you have at hand. For example, many people a few years ago predicted the strong demand for lithium and cobalt, both of which are key ingredients for batteries, to exceed current supply, and thus started buying up contracts on them, or even opening warehouses to store them. And thus when prices are now sky high, they make a handsome profit.

In I3, the intelligent speculator, may notice certain information which he thinks will result in a strong quarter for a company, higher steel prices, thick crack spread and thus buy the shares beforehand. For the less ethical, or/and impatient or unsure ones. They will then write an article, and use the uniquely centralized Malaysian equities community, to push the price up and lock up their profit.

Do I speculate intelligently, or as intelligently as I can?

I do. I buy some warrants, which is speculative in nature as you are betting on prices being at a certain place and a certain point in time. Which is different from an investment, where the time does not really matter.

And I do speculate on quarter results to an extent, for example, I bought Hengyuan at RM7-ish before the run up, sold at RM17, before rebuying a smaller amount at RM14.3, LOL! Still a net gain I guess.

I also bought Parkson 2 quarters ago at RM0.4, expecting a profit for the quarter (due to the HK listed division posting a profit a week or two before), and figured, if it didn’t happen, I wouldn’t mind holding it as a net asset investment. When the profitable quarter appeared, and the stock shot up 50%. I sold at RM0.61. Interestingly, I thought this quarter would be positive as well, but I thought a little too many people seem to feel this way, and at RM0.6, they are better Net asset plays, and so didn’t buy, despite the Hong Kong listed division posting a profit again. As it turned out, they posted a loss due to SEA division being really weak. Just goes to shows how unpredictable predictions can be. Hahaha

 

 

What is investing or speculating adventurously

Now, I am not an expert in investing or speculating adventurously, but from what I observe, people seem to mean it this way.

An adventurous investment, is where you are not sure of the value of what you’re buying, and thus do not know whether the price you paid is worth the money or not. However, you have a good feeling about the long term prospects of the company. And at that point in time, you might feel good enough about it to buy a certain amount of it.

Personally, the most recent of my adventurous investment is Layhong. And in 2017, it was VS Warrants, VIS and Elsoft. All of them were small positions. In terms of companies I am thinking about investing adventurously today but have not bought, is SKP Resources, Takaful, Maybank, Allianz, BIMB and a few more.

The difference between an adventurous and intelligent investment, is how much you know about the investment and how sure are you. And because of that, it automatically fails one very crucial stress test.

The key to being a successful investor, according to Howard Marks, is

 

  1. The ability to estimate the intrinsic value of an investment;
  2. The ability to hold or buy more as prices fall;
  3. And most importantly, to be right.

 

You fail the first instantly. And if you are not sure of something, how to you hold or buy more as prices fall?

And if you can’t determine the intrinsic value with a high level of confidence to begin with, doesn’t this make the probability of you being right significantly lower?

With this in mind, I usually only put very small amounts in my adventurous picks. Usually not more than 3% of portfolio each. Most are 2% or less.

Having said that, there is a way to turn adventurous investments into intelligent ones. That is to study more and improve your circle of competence.

However, if you were to invest adventurously and plan to turn it into an intelligent one by studying it further, you would have already made the error of trying to understand what you invest in, instead of investing in what you know. Which automatically reduces the probability of that being a successful investment.

What is an adventurous speculation? Well, just look at 90% of the people in i3, and there you go. Most if not all lose money. It’s essentially speculation based on zero facts or understanding, beyond the expectation that the price will be up or down in the near future.

 

 

My takeaways from this exercise.

What are the only investment edges one can ever get in the market with a very high certainty, especially as a retailer? In my opinion they are,

  1. Time
  2. Strong knowledge of your limits and circle of competence.

 

Time

The biggest investment edge one can ever have is to have a long time horizon. The longer your time horizon, the higher the edge.

Just a quick example, late 2016 and early 2017, everyone was so worried about the effects of MFRS 9 on the quarterly profit figures of financial institutions, despite it being only an accounting principle that has zero bearing on the fundamental economic reality of these companies. At one point, Maybank hit a six year low. Look where they are today.

If these banks were your family business, you would not give a fiddler’s fart as to these accounting adjustments. Everyone knew it, even the fund managers. However, as the price have shown, they have clearly sold some.

Why? Because fund managers have to price stocks for the next year. They cannot benefit from these mispricing’s even if they know it exist. Underperform for a year and you lose your bonus. Underperform for two, and you lose clients. Underperform for five, and you were fired a year ago. Seth Klarman, one of the best investors period, had an initial underperformance to the index of almost six years, before going on to produce one of the best long term returns in the market.

The irony of this situation is that from an investment standpoint, the long term is almost the only thing that matters, whereas from a career standpoint, you can only focus on the next year or two.

And a lack of understanding or confidence in your investment due to it being adventurous, will make it very difficult to have a long time horizon for it.

Now some people will say, “Well, those people have so much money, of course they can hold for so long.”

Here is where I think people misunderstand. The holding power and time horizon of your capital has zero correlation with the amount of money.

The point is to put the amount of capital that will enable you to have very strong holding power and a forever time horizon. Reduce the amount until you reach that figure.

Having said that, many of the investors here in I3, even those speculating intelligently, will say that they are speculating, or have short time horizons because they want more money faster.

I asked my 500% trader friend. When your capital grew from less than RM100,000 to RM750,000, did your quality of living increase seven times? How much did you take out over the fund’s lifetime?

The answer, No and RM3,000. He still eats the same food and drive the same car.

What was the main difference between less than RM100,000 and RM750,000 then? He said, well, with this amount, I can choose not to work unless I want to, and do whatever I want.

Well, in that case, why take the kind of risk you are taking now at all? And risk what you need for what you merely want.

I think for many of you reading my articles, your money is a lot more long term than you think, and you are more likely than not, risking what you really need for what you merely want.

 

 

Strong understanding of your limits and circle of competence.

One of the funniest story I remember about Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, was one about a comment made by an interviewer.

He said, “Having interviewed both of you for the past hour, I can’t help but think that you guys are not smart enough to be as rich as you are today.”

Well, the thing about investment, is not about how smart you are, but knowing precisely how dumb you are, and the things you don’t know.

Berkshire, could make the mistake of not buying any pharmaceutical stocks in 1970’s, not buying Amazon, Google and Microsoft post 2000. Buying Apple only from 2016. All of which would have been adventurous investments (as WB and CM did not understand them that well then) and still turn USD 17 per share to currently more than USD300,000 per share.

There is no shortage of people overestimating their abilities in this world. There was a poll asking people if they thought they were above average drivers, and over 80% said yes.

Imagine the lowest quartile investor ever. He does not read at all, he does not even know how to read accounts. In fact, he does not even have or want access to these information. In almost every scenario, he should be making much less money than everyone else, or losing money.

And yet, just buy acknowledging he knows nothing, and thus buys the S&P500 index or the MISC World Index, he will go from last place to top 50%.

Imagine if you as an investor is much smarter than him, how much higher can you go?

People fail in investing, not because they are not smart enough, but because they think they’re smarter than they really are.

A sure recipe for failure, as seen in Wall Street where the most brilliant congregate, is to be the man with an IQ of 140, but thinks he has an IQ of 190.

I think being adventurous in your investing or trading, is almost a sure sign of over estimating one self.

In addition, each investment style will have certain trade-offs. It’s just that statistically, value investing gives the best one, over a long period of time and a large sample size.

Value investors under-perform bull markets, and over-perform bear markets.

In bull markets, it is the most inexperience and foolish who make the most money, as they are the ones willing to make the biggest bet, where mature investors, scarred by experience, hesitate and consider. While in bear markets, the inexperience bull dies, while the matured value investor makes his biggest purchase.

There are old investors, and there are adventurous investors, but there are no old adventurous investors.

I would much rather be in the middle of the pack during the good years, and near the top in the bad years.

You have to decide what suits you.

 

 

Conclusion.

As some of you may be aware, I manage a fund for a number of investors. And this includes a portion of my parent’s retirement fund, the savings of friends who like me have only started working a few years and some outside parties who decided to take a bet on me.

As a fund manager, I think there is a certain sacred duty. A person’s savings, is probably the 3rd most important thing in their life, behind their family& friends and their life.

A person’s savings takes years of blood, sweat and tears to accumulate. It is all the things they chose not to enjoy over the years. That Empurau fish they did not eat, that holiday they did not go, that toy they did not buy for their children.

The number one goal for the fund is to therefore not lose money, and the number two goal is to not forget number one. If anything, I should be reducing my adventurous investments or trades, even though they have been profitable thus far.

The one thing I’ve learnt this year, is to be contented making money the way that makes perfect sense to me. I prefer making money the moment I buy something and count the profits later. I know the profit is captured the moment I buy the bargain.

And there is nothing bad about making a perfectly satisfactory amount of money while everyone is making more. They are far more, far worse things in investing.

As I always tell my clients, I would rather lose you as a client, than to lose your money.

If you want a trader, get a trader to manage your money. If you want someone who will invest based on a gut feeling, or adventurously, find that person or do it yourself.

They are more than enough risk and dangers in the market as it is. There is no need to choose to be adventurous. And they are more than enough things to buy without being adventurous. Need me to adventurous? I'll go sky diving and ride a superbike in Sepang.

And at the rate we are going, we know we will be quite rich by the time we get to the age of the forumers here (most are retirees i think), why risk that?

====================================================================

Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com

Share this

  2 people like this.
 
3iii GAMBLING: represents the creation of risks not previously existing – e.g. race-track betting.
02/09/2018 6:01 AM
3iii YOU choose the game YOU wish to play.

Do not be unduly influenced by others, even those with good intention.

Keep learning. You will learn more from those who disagree with you and be thankful to their contributions.

You are the person who know YOUR OWN SELF better than others, hopefully: your ability and knowledge, your investment objectives, your tolerance to risk, your investing time horizon and your financial capacity.




Not exactly sure their meaning of "adventurously".

If this refers to going outside of your circle of competence, don't do so.

Listen to your "inner scoreboard" and your investing with the right philosophy and knowledge should be safe and knowledgeable.




An intelligent investor loves the LOW RISK HIGH RETURN scenario.

He has a list of great companies in his radar screen.

When prices are down due to the overall negative sentiments in the stock market, he becomes very greedy indeed.

In these situations, he should have the cash and courage to buy.

He doesn't have to be in the market all the time.



Yes, risk is not losing money or your capital.

Risk is also not meeting your investment objectives at the specified time.

A common example: Keeping cash in FDs is deemed safe for many and yet in the long term they lost money due to inflation. Not only do they lose purchasing power parity, their investments also fail to meet their objectives. Thus, what is considered safe is actually very risky in these situations.

"Risk is NOT KNOWING WHAT YOU ARE DOING." (Warren Buffett)
02/09/2018 6:22 AM
3iii Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)

Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are opened to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.


_______________


For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio includes A & B
(A: Cash, FDs, Bonds B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)

For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio includes A & B & C
(C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)

For SPECULATORS: Portfolio includes D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)

________________
________________


Types of Investors

Graham felt that individual investors fell into two camps : "defensive" investors and "aggressive" or "enterprising" investors.

These two groups are distinguished not by the amount of risk they are willing to take, but rather by the amount of "intelligent effort" they are "willing and able to bring to bear on the task."
02/09/2018 6:28 AM
3iii Are You an Intelligent Investor?

Graham believed someone could be an intelligent investor in two ways:
(1) "defensive" investors and
(2) "aggressive" or "enterprising" investors.


These two groups are distinguished not by the amount of risk they are willing to take, but rather by the amount of "intelligent effort" they are "willing and able to bring to bear on the task."

PASSIVE OR DEFENSIVE INVESTORS - These types of investors don't have a lot of time to spend on a portfolio or can't tolerate much risk. They must create a permanent portfolio that runs on autopilot and requires no further effort. This type of passive portfolio won't be very exciting, but it will get you steady returns over your lifetime.

ACTIVE OR ENTERPRISING INVESTORS - These types of investors have a lot of time to spend on building and managing their portfolios and also have a high risk tolerance. They must continually research, select, and monitor a dynamic mix of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds.
02/09/2018 6:36 AM
3iii DEFENSIVE INVESTORS
Thus, for instance, he included in the defensive investor category
- professionals (his example--a doctor) unable to devote much time to the process and
- young investors (his example--a sharp young executive interested in finance) who are as yet unfamiliar and inexperienced with investing.

Graham felt that the defensive investor should
- confine his holdings to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and that are in strong financial condition.
- By "important," he meant one of substantial size and with a leading position in the industry, ranking among the first quarter or first third in size within its industry group.




AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS
Aggressive investors, Graham felt, could EXPAND their universe substantially, but purchases should be attractively priced as established by intelligent analysis. He also suggested that aggressive investors avoid new issues.
02/09/2018 6:37 AM
3iii Young investors (his example--a sharp young executive interested in finance) who are as yet unfamiliar and inexperienced with investing, in the eyes of Benjamin Graham should be a defensive investor.

Given the young age of Jon Choivo, is he a defensive or aggressive investor? Having read his postings, he falls into the aggressive group. Will he be the next Warren Buffett? Who knows. He is knowledgeable and hardworking. Not so sure of his temperament in investing yet.

Good luck in this long journey of investing.




By the way, your friend, the active trader, who thinks he is financially free with $750,000 networth, please ask him to think again!
02/09/2018 6:42 AM
3iii Symbiotic relationship with Jon Choivo, the young investor.



Age doesn't ensure knowledge or wisdom. On the other hand, the older chaps in the same field will have seen and experienced a lot of events.

What the youth differs from the older chap is experience. Experience acquisition requires to be immersed in the market and journeyed through.

If you have not been through 1997/98 or the 2007/2008 severe market downturns, would you have the experience to know what they were like and how to manage or guide your investment portfolio safely and profitably through those periods?

If you have been through the 1993/96 irrational bull market, you would have seen the careless "investing" behaviour of many. You too would have witnessed and know of the many who were in the bloodbath at the end of the market collapse in 1997. They lost their nest eggs and had to rebuild their finances again, some at an impossible nearing retirement age.

In truth, the risky periods in the market were during the extreme bull market and never the severe bear market for those with a long term view of their investing into the stock market.

Warren Buffett's quote again. "How to teach the fish what it is like to breath out of the water?" Taking the fish out of the water to EXPERIENCE THIS for a few seconds would have educated it more than the days spent talking to the fish about it.

In investing in particular, being guided or mentored by someone with experience helps a lot. I should know, after all I was mentored and helped by a knowledgeable successful investor in my early years of investing.
02/09/2018 7:25 AM
Sslee Dear Jon,
No wonder people call you Jon (Long winded) for your age and intelligent people want you to take out 20% to do your intelligent speculating adventureous investment.
Thank you
02/09/2018 8:22 AM
newbie911 Skpress looks nice, why u still hesitate to enter?
02/09/2018 8:32 AM
FamousAmos Another nerdy and lengthy article
02/09/2018 8:36 AM
Alex™ Another article. Gooding. Of course i3 is built to hoot stock lo, what else
02/09/2018 8:42 AM
Icon8888 I bought some already at 120+. I am adventurous

newbie911 Skpress looks nice, why u still hesitate to enter?
02/09/2018 08:32
02/09/2018 9:04 AM
Icon8888 Compared to Jon Lohsoh, AlexTM is more street wise. Both are likeable young people
02/09/2018 9:06 AM
Alex™ Haha.. Variety of ppl makes the world less bored.

Sian lo, Sunday judi table no open...
02/09/2018 9:09 AM
Icon8888 told you already, life no meaning if quit i3

lucky you withdrew resignation
02/09/2018 9:12 AM
Alex™ I got gooding plan d... Morning punt i3, night punt u.s...fuiyo..
02/09/2018 9:14 AM
Icon8888 just curious, US got i3 type forum or not ? I want to join if got
02/09/2018 9:15 AM
Alex™ Hmm... Can't find one currently... At night time I play position trade based on TA and little FA only... After placed order then go to sleep... Wake up morning then see got hit my stop loss or my target profit... Hehe..
02/09/2018 9:17 AM
Icon8888 LOL Jon Lohsoh will be horrified when he read this ....

Posted by Alex™ > Sep 2, 2018 09:17 AM | Report Abuse

... After placed order then go to sleep... Wake up morning then see got hit my stop loss or my target profit... Hehe..
02/09/2018 9:19 AM
Alex™ Haha... Wake up and find position goes down bypassing stop loss, and margin call incoming...
02/09/2018 9:21 AM
FamousAmos Lol John Lohsoh will be writing another lecture note soon.
02/09/2018 9:30 AM
cheoky Really admire Jon. Broad reading resulting in wat so called 3-4 level thinking. U will be damn good as time goes on. And you willing to stick to your own judgement. That is valuable.
02/09/2018 9:45 AM
Choivo Capital Choiiiiii,

Hahahaha. Well good luck. I see also scared tbh hahaha. What do you use? Interactive brokers?

====
Alex™ Hmm... Can't find one currently... At night time I play position trade based on TA and little FA only... After placed order then go to sleep... Wake up morning then see got hit my stop loss or my target profit... Hehe..
02/09/2018 09:17
02/09/2018 9:54 AM
Choivo Capital Petronm is cheaper and I am more sure. So is osk, trop, etc etc.

But skp, has a few things that are very attractive. And based on gut feeling, it's actually not bad. Oh well, if I miss the boat, I miss the boat.

====

Posted by newbie911 > Sep 2, 2018 08:32 AM | Report Abuse

Skpress looks nice, why u still hesitate to enter?
02/09/2018 10:04 AM
Outliar I thought you still had Parkson in your portfolio, still think its a decent turnaround and net asset play?
02/09/2018 11:34 AM
CharlesT Keep track on yr record for 3 to 5 years and then u evaluate yrself.

2017 less than 20% return (whats yr exact return? 15%-18%?)
2018
2019
2020

This could b more effective way to measure yr inv theory n method.

Abiility to write good book theories with good england may or maynot translate into good return...at the end of the still go back to the figures.
02/09/2018 11:58 AM
CharlesT Otb sifu has a proven track records here for the past 4 to 5 years while i believe his actual returns could be even much higher than that.
02/09/2018 12:00 PM
win-win Stock Pick 2018 - Jon Choivo (Tag: SP2018)
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99220.jsp
02/09/2018 12:06 PM
Apabagus No one attended 3iii's college lectures.Not he has to hijack choivo's classroom to preach.Malu or not 3iii?
02/09/2018 12:07 PM
stockraider IT IS VERY SIMPLE LOH....TO TRACK DISHONEST 3iii JUST MARK THESE SHARE PRICES & REVIEW IT AT THE END OF THE YR 2018 LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > Sep 1, 2018 02:11 PM | Report Abuse X

these are past growth stock, now saturated loh....it is overvalue loh...if u buy 10 yrs ago ....then u get good return...but if u buy now u r looking for stagnation....bcos it is overvalue now loh...!!

The correct approach is start looking for new growth stock mah...!!

Never overpay loh.....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 01:58 PM | Report Abuse

Hartalega Holdings Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 7.10
9.1.2009 0.42 b
25.8.2018 23.41 b

Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 4.98
09.1.2009 0.25 b
25.8.2018 18.78 b

Top Glove Corp Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 11.14
09.1.2009 1.1 b
25.8.2018 13.83 b

Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 9.98
09.1.2009 1.33 b
25.8.2018 24.5 b

Public Bank Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 25.12
09.1.2009 31.33 b
25.8.2018 96.67 b

Nestle (M) Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 147.00
09.1.2009 6.39 b
25.8.2018 34.59 b

Tenaga Nasional Bhd
Market Cap share price rm 15.68
09.1.2009 27.09 b
25.8.2018 89.15 b

Fraser & Neave
Market Cap share price rm 38.00
09.1.2009 3.19 b
25.8.2018 14.02 b

Petronas Dagangan
Market Cap share price rm 27.2
09.1.2009 7.25 b
25.8.2018 26.51 b

Petronas Gas
Market Cap rm 18.70
09.1.2009 19.49 b
25.8.2018 36.6 b

I own 8 of these 10 stocks in my portfolio for many years.
02/09/2018 12:18 PM
qqq3 I own 8 of these 10 stocks in my portfolio for many years.

really meh? are u a mutual fund?
02/09/2018 1:05 PM
Alex™ Lol
02/09/2018 1:10 PM
Alex™ Apa takut... Hoot nia...
02/09/2018 1:11 PM
Alex™ If takut then go play dota better
02/09/2018 1:11 PM
Choivo Capital As always charles hits on the dot.

That is what i'm doing. I told myself this.

I will do this for 10 years, reading annual reports, tracking my returns, running my fund etc. If after 10 years, i cannot show to myself that i cant beat the market comfortably, to an extent where i can say i'm good.

I will close the fund, return all the money, and forget about being a fund manager.

I will move most of money to indexes, other than some where i think is really good companies.

And just spend the rest of time doing what i really enjoy. I prefer reading good books to annual reports. And i definitely do enjoy reading annual reports.



====
CharlesT Keep track on yr record for 3 to 5 years and then u evaluate yrself.

2017 less than 20% return (whats yr exact return? 15%-18%?)
2018
2019
2020

This could b more effective way to measure yr inv theory n method.

Abiility to write good book theories with good england may or maynot translate into good return...at the end of the still go back to the figures.
02/09/2018 11:58
02/09/2018 1:21 PM
Choivo Capital Yeah, i sold, maybe i am stupid.

The interesting thing about Parkson, is that this is a RM400 million company, handling roughly RM4 billion in revenue. That is insane, if they can get even 3% net profit margin, it would be incredible profits.

However, i think people are mistaken in how hard it is to get 3%. Amazon, in its entire history, i doubt, have made even USD10 billion for its retail division. It has absolutely decimated the entire industry and the margins of everyone, but it has not made much money from there. And this is a close to 1 trillion dollar company.

Parkson is cheap, quite cheap. But they are probably better net asset plays. If it turnarounds and become profitable, which i really don't know how, it will become a fantastic investment returns wise. But i find it really hard to see.

The right move for parkson now, is to basically liquidate everything that is no profitable and give it back via a dividend.

But this is william chengs baby, and something he has put his life into building, i dont think he will do that, but will try to keep it alive, to the monetary detriment of shareholders (including himself).

So i really really dont know what do to here. but i wouldnt mind buying 1-2% when its down to like 40 sen or something. But my cash not that much, so its needs to stay at that price for long time while i build up more important positions.

but the fact i am saying they are more important positions while, at the same time saying i will not put all my money in those positions, but put them in parkson, should be a warning that i am not fully logical and rational. And i do not truly understand all my investments.


==
Outliar I thought you still had Parkson in your portfolio, still think its a decent turnaround and net asset play?
02/09/2018 11:34
02/09/2018 1:24 PM
godhand I have different understanding from u. To me Investing means to bank on the company future. And there is no right or wrong in future because u can’t predict the future. Businesses will disrupt businesses its a never ending cycle. There is no business that will succeed 100% also. The max u can lose is only 100% but there is no limit to how much u will win. It’s infinity. So in context to your article, there is no sure win or so called safe investment. Time and correct projection of the future are the only essence in investing. The rest it’s not investing, it’s called gambling and speculating
02/09/2018 1:25 PM
qqq3 The rest it’s not investing, it’s called gambling and speculating........


agrees,,,,,on the other hand nothing wrong with speculations and trading.
02/09/2018 1:29 PM
stockraider if u bank on company future....u need to undertand the co prospects and business operations like insiders....then only bank mah...!!

Posted by godhand > Sep 2, 2018 01:25 PM | Report Abuse

I have different understanding from u. To me Investing means to bank on the company future. And there is no right or wrong in future because u can’t predict the future. Businesses will disrupt businesses its a never ending cycle. There is no business that will succeed 100% also. The max u can lose is only 100% but there is no limit to how much u will win. It’s infinity. So in context to your article, there is no sure win or so called safe investment. Time and correct projection of the future are the only essence in investing. The rest it’s not investing, it’s called gambling and speculating
02/09/2018 1:29 PM
Alex™ assumption

1) stock market goes up forever
2) if only you decide it right, you'll get rewarded (against random walk theory)

truth

1) stock market goes up forever until this thesis is proven wrong (yet to be)
2) each investment decision is probabilistic in nature. If sure win, i also want

so pls follow alex do trading. Just ditch the investment. Why leh, because investment is so bored! hehe
02/09/2018 1:31 PM
godhand Apple bled for decades before they explode due to their dominance in their innovation. If you are a shareholder how much do u think your investment amplifies. U can buy 100 start ups like apple 40 years ago. But if only one show the result like apple u are already a winner.

So what does this tell you? U need to have the ability to endure pain for a very long period of time and u need to trust Steve job and his team and their products. I know u will say Malaysia market is small not like us. But how do u know for a fact that no one company will make it internationally in the future? How can u be so sure
02/09/2018 1:33 PM
Alex™ why ur uncle koon no allow comment? he only allow one way communication, i.e., speaking at us?
02/09/2018 1:34 PM
stockraider investment is invest....!!

speculation is speculation mah....!!

Gambling is gambling loh....!!

Do not mix loh....!!

If u buy share, need to decide investment or speculation loh....!!

If u feel boring better go genting to gamble loh...stock mkt gambling the odds of success is much lower and the losses could be bigger mah...!!

Posted by Alex™ > Sep 2, 2018 01:31 PM | Report Abuse

assumption

1) stock market goes up forever
2) if only you decide it right, you'll get rewarded (against random walk theory)

truth

1) stock market goes up forever until this thesis is proven wrong (yet to be)
2) each investment decision is probabilistic in nature. If sure win, i also want

so pls follow alex do trading. Just ditch the investment. Why leh, because investment is so bored! hehe
02/09/2018 1:38 PM
Alex™ and yes, if steve job no succeed, we don't have success stories today to tell...

Posted by godhand > Sep 2, 2018 01:33 PM | Report Abuse
Apple bled for decades before they explode due to their dominance in their innovation. If you are a shareholder how much do u think your investment amplifies. U can buy 100 start ups like apple 40 years ago. But if only one show the result like apple u are already a winner.

So what does this tell you? U need to have the ability to endure pain for a very long period of time and u need to trust Steve job and his team and their products. I know u will say Malaysia market is small not like us. But how do u know for a fact that no one company will make it internationally in the future? How can u be so sure
02/09/2018 1:43 PM
godhand To me there’s a very fine line that distinguish speculation from investing and It’s trust. Why? Let’s say u know nothing about a company revenue in future all you know is that the management has the best committed young bloods selling a new service or products that’s wasn’t there before and trying to penetrate the market and u believe in what they do. It may sound like speculating because u don’t have the numbers. But this is what I call investing.
02/09/2018 1:45 PM
stockmanmy this forum, 99% of the transactions are for trading/ speculations....

yet 99% of the time, people write as if speculating/ trading is wrong......

what the fuck
02/09/2018 1:47 PM
stockraider Not true loh....!!

the stats are as follows loh;

1. investment 20%
2. speculation 35%
3 trading 45%

Not 99% lah....!!

Posted by stockmanmy > Sep 2, 2018 01:47 PM | Report Abuse

this forum, 99% of the transactions are for trading/ speculations....

yet 99% of the time, people write as if speculating/ trading is wrong......

what the fuck
02/09/2018 1:57 PM
value88 Quoted : "An adventurous investment, is where you are not sure of the value of what you’re buying, and thus do not know whether the price you paid is worth the money or not. However, you have a good feeling about the long term prospects of the company. And at that point in time, you might feel good enough about it to buy a certain amount of it."

If you think when sifus (not me ya) advised you to be more "adventurous" in stock investment, that means asking you to invest in stocks that "you are not sure of the value of what you're buying", you have total mis-conception.
That's all I want to add. If u can't understand, u won't understand.
02/09/2018 3:34 PM
joetay10 Post removed. Why?
02/09/2018 4:24 PM
Choivo Capital If you think i am mistaken, what is your definition then? And your opinion of the correct perception?



=====
Posted by value88 > Sep 2, 2018 03:34 PM | Report Abuse

Quoted : "An adventurous investment, is where you are not sure of the value of what you’re buying, and thus do not know whether the price you paid is worth the money or not. However, you have a good feeling about the long term prospects of the company. And at that point in time, you might feel good enough about it to buy a certain amount of it."

If you think when sifus (not me ya) advised you to be more "adventurous" in stock investment, that means asking you to invest in stocks that "you are not sure of the value of what you're buying", you have total mis-conception.
That's all I want to add. If u can't understand, u won't understand.
02/09/2018 4:33 PM


 

1993 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 SCOMNET 0.830.00 
 KOTRA 2.060.00 
 UCREST 0.1550.00 
 PINEAPP 0.3850.00 
 PUC 0.050.00 
 WILLOW 0.450.00 
 IRIS 0.140.00 
 TOPGLOV-C60 0.0650.00 
 BTECH 0.230.00 
 3A 0.7950.00 
Partners & Brokers