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Choivo Capital

Author: Choivo Capital   |   Latest post: Mon, 25 May 2020, 8:40 PM

 

(CHOIVO CAPITAL) Lessons from Golconda – A Reflection & On Moving Forward.

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For a copy with better formatting, go here, its alot easier on the eyes.

Lessons from Golconda – A Reflection & On Moving Forward.

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Well, what an eventful month it has been to say the least.

 

This was something I’ve been thinking about writing and reflecting on for the last few days, but I could never really put my finger on what I should write about. Especially since there is that possibility where i may publish this.

 

Should I talk about my fund falling by almost thirty something percent before recovering somewhat?

 

That odd feeling of utter calmness, as I watch my net-worth fall by the equivalent of almost 2 years’ salary, and instead of feeling despair, i’m just sitting there wondering what should i be buying , when should i be buying and how aggressive should i be in buying?

 

Or,

 

Should I talk about the frantic drawing down my credit lines to about 40% - 50% of my equity size then to pour them into foreign equities for the first time? And the trepidation i felt wondering if i drew down too much, and if i’ve left enough buffers to prevent margin calls or forced selling?

 

Or,

 

Should I talk about some of the most amazing deals I have ever seen and bought?

 

AER Capital at USD10.5 (The best aircraft leasing company in the world at 1.5PE). Park Resorts & Hotel Inc at USD4 (The company holds the hotel portfolios of Hilton, with low leverage and 20% dividend yield at that price). BOC Aviation, Synchrony Capital, Credit Acceptance, Booking Holdings, Google, Dart Group?

 

And the stress I felt buying them as I could only do a quick analysis before buying them in order to not miss the opportunities.

 

Or,

 

Should i talk about the moment right after i first used all my excess cash and initial credit lines, when prices decided to instantly dive down by another 50%?

 

Or,

 

Should i talk about those sleepless, restless nights, as i pour over the accounts, desperately trying to read thousands of pages, or at least 5 years worth of annual reports for each company and any accompanying research, whilst the Dow Jones nosedived another 12%, representing both an increasingly attractive opportunity and an chance this opportunity will no longer exist.

 

To be torn between the urge to study more and be prudent, whilst looking at what was already a wonderful deal become so much more incredible, that i wondered if i would ever see one like that again?

 

Or,

 

Should I talk about that moment when i was infected by the mood of a Malaysian Value Investing Whatsapp Group I co-founded, the inevitable outcome of discussing about CoViD-19 with a group of people desperately trying to get our doctorate in epidemiology within a few days.

 

Or,

 

Should I talk about the 2 days, where i went from from emulating my heroes Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger etc, to desperately trying to divine the trading and timing secrets of Victor Niederhoffer (a two time bankrupt) and Jesse Livermore (who died bankrupt), constantly wondering how to time the exact bottom, in order to dive into it with nothing but my underpants, and make enough to retire after these few months?

 

To in those 2 days, momentarily turn back into a market addict, watching the markets every 30 minutes and reading market analysis done by idiots (tend to be market talking heads, journalists or economists), instead of tuning all the market noises out and focusing solely on the fundamentals.

 

And then going cold turkey from any exposure to market news, returning to my center, and focus on staying at that profitable yet safe balance between greed and fear.

 

Or,

 

Should I talk about yesterday? When I found out that it was that precise moment, where I made the correct decisions to not to throw all caution to the wind, and jump in with nothing but my underwear left, was the absolute bottom? (My thesis was that margin and forced sales are over, and its time to buy, it appeared to be accurate).

 

And that if I had done so, i would likely not need to head back to the office come the end of the movement restriction, with so many of my high conviction purchases up by 200-300%.

 

Or,

 

Should I instead talk about how i find myself now writing this piece, to better reflect over the hectic and dramatic occurrences over the last few days and my actions during that period?

 

Well, I guess, I’ll talk about 3 things.

 

  • COVID-19, The Market & This Recession
  • A few companies I find compelling given current valuations.
  • How i plan to move forward.

 

 

 

COVID-19, The Market & The Economy/Recession

 

COVID-19

Much has been said about COVID 19, and so I don’t intend to elaborate too much on it, as i imagine that is all everyone have been reading about the last few days.

 

However, I would just like to raise two points, especially to people comparing it to the Spanish Flu (1918-1920) which killed roughly 100 million, or the Bubonic Plague, Cholera, Black Death etc.

 

Antibiotics were only really discovered in 1929 (Penicillin) and Antivirals was only properly understood in the 1980’s.

 

Such tools were not available previously. Humans had two options, either survive long enough for herd immunity to take root, or die.

 

Having said that, based on the statistics below, this virus is significantly worse than H1N1.

 

COVID 19

H1N1

R0 - Basic Reproduction Number*

*How infectious it is. The higher the number, the more infectious it is

1.45 2.5
Mortality Rate 0.02% 0.8%-21%
(Depending on treatment available, age, blood type, and any preconditions)

By the end of H1N1, about 1.4 billion people were infected with 200-500 thousand deaths. Given the above numbers, it appears that COVID will be much much worse.

 

And given the initial response, especially in countries like America, Europe, India, Pakistan, Africa etc, things could have definitely been much worse, especially if we handled it the way we handled H1N1, which really only affected Asia.

 

However, when thinking about the future, we need to do more than just extrapolate the “Now” into the future.

 

We must also account for natural feedbacks.

 

The more serious and drastic the situation, the more serious and drastic the response.

 

Couple that with the fact, we are much more connected these days when compared to 2009 due the sheer proliferation of the internet and the sheer size of our amygdala’s which is especially attuned to danger and threats, this resulted in the the entire world (other than a few countries) quickly taking very drastic actions.

 

As of today, more than 101 countries have closed their borders, or implemented movement restrictions / lockdowns.

 

1-27. 27 members states of EU
28. United States
29. China
30. Albania
31. Angola
32. Australia
33. Bolivia
34. Cameroon
35. Canada
36. Cape Verde
37. Chile
38. Colombia
39. Congo
40. Costa Rice
41. Cyprus
42. Denmark
43. Djibouti
44. Ecuador
45. Egypt
46. El Salvador
47. Georgia
48. Ghana
49. Guatemala
50. Guyana
51. Haiti
52. Honduras
53. Hungary
54. India
55. Kazakhstan
56. Kenya
57. Kuwait
58. Kyrgyzstan
59. Latvia
60. Lebanon
61. Libya
62. Lithuania
63. Malaysia
64. Mali
65. Moldova
66. Nepal
67. New Zealand
68. Norway
69. Oman
70. Pakistan
71. Panama
72. Peru
73. Philippines
74. Poland
75. Portugal
76. Qatar
77. Romania
78. Russia
79. Rwanda
80. Saudi Arabia
81. Serbia
82. Singapore
83. Somalia
84. South Africa
85. Spain
86. Sri Lanka
87. Sudan
88. Suriname
89. Sweden
90. Tajikistan
91. Trinidad and Tobago
92. Tunisia
93. Turkey
94. Turkmenistan
95. Uganda
96. Ukraine
97. United Arab Emirates
98. Uzbekistan
99. Vietnam
100. Yemen
101. Zimbabwe

 

More countries are expected to start closing borders, and existing countries with closed borders will extend those travel ban until May, especially now that Boris Johnson as well as Prince Charles are both victims to the disease.

 

I don’t think anybody expected governments to just shut down. Never in the history of the world have humanity just shut down like this.

 

Even during the Spanish Flu that killed 100 million, people still went on with their lives, albeit in extreme fear.

 

It also helps that it took China only 42 days to map the CoVid-19 Genome (versus 3-4 months for H1N1), and that there is this incredible global urgency pushing the FDA to quickly approve testing etc.

 

Having said that, I think that China will be the first to come out with a vaccine, and whether the FDA gives approval for it, the rest of the world will be using that vaccine.

 

We will be entering a new age where people take medicine manufactured in China.

 

My own opinion is that peak infections should be within the next 2-4 weeks, with subsequent increases mainly due to more testing being done and updating the numbers.

 

Don't take my word for it though, i have not passed my epidemiology exams yet.

 

 

 

The Market

During this period, as many would have noticed (you’d be one hell of an investor if you hadn’t), and repeated ad-nauseum throughout, the market has fallen by about 35-40% (depending on which market you mean), at a record pace not even seen during the 2008 Great Financial Recession.

 

Why is this so, there are probably as many opinions as they are words in this article, but i can't help but take a stab at it too.

 

I think it is due to a confluence of various factors, all of which were operating in the same direction, at the same time, while feeding off each other, that caused, as what Charlie Munger would call, a Lollapallooza effect.

 

The factors are as below.

 

  •  COVID 19

 

  •  Oil Price crashing from Saudi Arabia going on a price war with Russia.

 

(This is the external view.  I don’t think this is really the case.

 

I think this is more of Saudi Arabia and Russia taking the only logical route of crashing oil prices when demand are at an all time low to try and either bankrupt US’s oil production companies, or bring US to the bargaining table.

 

What’s the point in supporting prices, if it only results in subsidizing the US shale industry which continues to pump increasingly larger amounts?

 

And what point is there in attempting to control oil prices when the US is the biggest producer of oil in the world right now, and pumping however much they want.

 

It’s a lose-lose situation, and this is the most logical outcome).

 

  • The Saudi’s pulling out money from the biggest hedge funds (Bridgewater, Citadel, 2 Sigma, AQR and Renaissance) in the world to fund themselves while prices are low.

 

And these hedge funds are all running risk parity strategy, which requires significant leverage, and the resulting sells off’s created dramatic moves across all asset classes; Gold, Equities, Bonds and Forex. Imagine this, even Gold went down, and this was supposed to the safe hedge.

 

  • Volcker rules, which were reenacted post 2008, that requires risk limits to be cut significantly when volatility increases.

 

This means, when you have a large position with a limit of say USD500mil, when volatility happens and you intend to prove your liquidity, the Volcker Rules now says your limit is USD100mil. Instead of now proving liquidity, you now must reduce position size.

 

  • Increased volatility means, that banks have to now increase lending rates to compensate for higher risks, from say Libor +35 to Libor +90 for Secured Treasury Repurchase Agreements

 

(This is where people currently borrow through a process called sponsored repo, in which they ask a large bank to act as a middleman, pairing their government bonds with money-market funds willing to lend cash.

 

The bank then guarantees that the parties will fulfill their obligations — repaying the cash or returning the securities. Firms trading through the FICC contribute to a fund that would cover a borrower’s default. This is also known as Repo’s).

 

Most hedge funds rely on Overnight Repo’s for funding. Except this time there is was not enough cash, and with COVID turning large amount of people in the world risk off, and increasing demand for cash, liquidity instantly dried off.

 

  • And here is where it gets interesting, corporate borrowing also gets screwed up here. When a bank borrows money to a corporation in the US, due to regulations, the must hedge this by shorting the stock, or buying Credit Default Swap (CDS).

 

Now CDS’s are essentially insurance on the bonds of a company against default. And it is calculated taking into account the price of the Bond and volatility. The price of a CDS’s also affect the price of a bond somewhat.

 

Now, when you had the situation 2-3 weeks ago, where volatility was so high that there was no offers in Singapore Bond Markets, you get very interesting scenarios when it comes to the prices of the CDS’s.

 

And banks need to constantly short the stock and buy CDS’s, which increases pressure on the market.

 

  • As prices fall and sovereign funds around the world see this, they too start pulling out funds and running from the hills, cause even more pressure and more sell down.

 

  • And as prices even fall further, the rich get hit first, as they are usually far more leveraged given their access to the "valuable" advice of private wealth consultants.

 

The sheer amounts of margin calls in Singapore Private Banking 2 weeks ago will boggle your mind. These forced selling and margin calls result in prices falling even faster.

 

  • As all these is going on, the retailers themselves see prices falling, and catches the first red herring they see, COVID-19 and its increasing infection counts, they themselves start selling, and as prices fall further everyone is now getting margin called.
    And through this all, we have algorithm funds, which by some estimates contribute about 50-80% of the daily transaction volume in the stock market, giving rise to greater volatility.

 

And so, we now have the situation from 23 March 2020, where it hits the absolute bottom at 30% - 40% down. Whoever is supposed to get margin call and have their shares forced sold, have been called and their shares sold, or collateral provided, resulting in selling pressure being greatly diminished.

 

Before long, markets start shooting up as they see the sheer discounts available, and positive news become available, which indicated that the markets priced in a depression, while it appears that we are only in for a recession.

 

As a friend said,

 

“When I was stocking up on food due to COVID 19, it never struck me that, if I actually needed to eat this food, chances are I would not want to be in the market then”.

 

Me too bud, me too.

 

 

 

The Economy/Recession

And so, comes the question, what does this mean for the economy. How would these shutdowns affect it?

 

Well, not good, at least for the short to mid (maybe) term.

 

But long term wise, we are right on track. This is a recession and not a depression.

 

One thing about the economy, is that significant parts of it are due to the emotional response of the participants on hand.

 

A prolonged depression/recession happens when sentiment becomes so bad, that people quite simply do not want to spend money, instead all they can think about is saving money or paying back debt (if the world consisted of people like me, we would be in for a permanent depression).

 

There are a few key things that are very different in the previous recessions and depressions.

 

  • Governments (it really applies a lot more to reserve currency type countries) often did not really know how to handle it.Instead of printing money or jump starting the economy by taking on huge infrastructure projects, they decided to take on austerity measures, which destroys the sentiment even further, and may even make it a semi-permanent mode of mind, resulting in what is either a depression, or a balance sheet recession.

 

And for those that wanted to print money/give liquidity but couldn’t/shouldn’t, well hyperinflation till you die lah, but that’s another story.

 

  • This time, the key fear of all recessions is simply not there anymore. There is quite simply, zero fear of bankruptcy in the markets now, as the governments around the world have simply agreed to cover some of your losses and provide all the liquidity needed to ensure your survival.

 

What does this all mean?

 

Well it means that short to mid-term, you are fine, and what you see in the markets now is pretty close to the deals of a decade (especially since there isn’t any right issue kind of deals, especially in the US, instead it’s a flat out loan).

 

It may go down another 10-15% from the economic numbers being worse than expected, but this is very close to the bottom.

 

But what does it really mean, long term wise in terms of inflation? Well that is a question for another day.

 

And is the current bailout/stimulus enough?

 

No idea, but whatever additional stimulus or bailout needed, it will be done. I do wonder a bit more about consumer credit’s and how it will be affected if people do not pull a salary for two weeks and instead lived off handouts, but we will see I guess.

 

The bigger question for me now is this, will this experience cauterize the experience of this generation to start saving money a lot more, and thus slowdown the recovery?

 

I quote,

“Growth in consumer credit has stalled. In February, China’s short-term loans to households dropped 450.4 billion yuan ($64.5 billion), the biggest monthly decline since February 2007. Longer-term household loans, including mortgages, added just 37.1 billion yuan, the weakest growth since February 2012, according to data from Wind Co.

 

The coronavirus epidemic has caused “China’s first credit demand disruption in history,” said Richard Xu, a Morgan Stanley analyst. While the disruption is expected to be temporary, he said, its duration is uncertain and will depend on income growth. Still, China’s overall credit demand could start to rebound in the second quarter assuming the virus is contained, he added.

 

Zhang Yu, a property-firm employee in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou, said he stopped taking taxis after he returned to last month work and walks instead.

 

Vanessa Hu, a 31-year-old brand manager for a condom maker, said she would splurge on several overseas trips a year. She sometimes took out short-term consumer loans offered by Chinese mobile payments giant Alipay to cover costs. Not anymore.

 

“My generation has never been through a major crisis before and most believed China’s economy will only keep growing,” she said.

 

She plans to skip all trips abroad this year and canceled her private Thai boxing and yoga classes. “Even when the coronavirus pandemic is over, I have no interest in overspending,” she said. “I want to save like crazy.”

 

It does appear that demand growth will not be as V shaped as we would like. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

 

A few companies I find compelling given current valuations.

 

KLSE

  1. Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing BerhadI wrote about it before and I don’t think I need to explain further.
  2. Magni-Tech Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 40%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
  3. Favelle Favco Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 15%), (EV/Earnings: 2.3 times)
  4. Lii Hen Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 28%), (EV/Earnings: 3.2 times)
  5. Poh Huat Resources Holdings Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 16%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
  6. Hong Leong Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 30%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
  7. Homeritz Corporation Berhad - (ROE excl Net Cash: 30%), (EV/Earnings: 2.5 times)
  8. Uchi Technologies Berhad - (ROE excl Net Cash: 250%), (EV/Earnings: 10.5 times)

 

These are companies who i think their earning power will not be diminished after this virus blows over, and have a strong history of paying out earnings, and have good/decent capital allocation abilities (ie no unnecessary ventures).

 

They are others I did not include in this list, such as RCECAP, ALLIANZ, AEONCR, TIMECOM, MUHIBBAH, LCTITAN, GKENT, PCHEM etc.

 

This is mainly because I don’t find them as attractive given the current opportunities in the market.

 

And as for TIMECOM, despite me thinking it has one of the best business models in Malaysia, given the current opportunities, its just too expensive.

 

At 25 times earnings (what I think its priced now after adjustments for tax), they are better businesses at better prices with better growth rates out there.

 

 

HKSE

  • Tianyun International Holdings Ltd

China based Processed food and jam maker. Listed in HK, 20% growth topline and bottomline for a long time. Net cash, 4.5PE, pays dividends.

 

  • IGG Inc

Maker and owner of some of the most popular android games. Net cash, 5PE, pays dividends.

 

 

HKSE Shanghai

  • Shanghai International Airport Co. Ltd.

Only airport in Shanghai. This company is net cash and grew topline, bottomline and traffic at 15-20% per annum for the last 3-4 years.

 

Very simple question, right now china is building an unbelievable amount of goodwill with the rest of the world by giving aid during this CoVid crisis.

 

This country also turned 71Bil GDP in 1970 to 14.3 trillion in 2019 (a 200X / 200,000%) gain in 49 years, a compounded growth rate of 11.5%, and is also packed full of Chinese who love to make money and ruled by a system engineered to create competent and preferably benevolent dictators.

 

10 - 20 years from now, do you think China will be much richer than today?

 

Do you think more people will be going to Shanghai?

 

Do you think similar growth rates can be maintained for passenger growth?

 

I think yes for all three.

 

Especially since the major shareholder is the Shanghai Government, who has every incentive to make sure traffic growth, revenue and profitability increases. Its very rare to have a Government who wants the same thing as you.

 

And this is Shanghai, some of the most expensive piece of land in the world, do you think you can find another big patch of land to build airport?

 

And if you do, do you think it will be more convenient than the current one?

 

I think not for both.

 

And what is the valuation given for this wonderful business that can grow 15% to 20% per annum comfortably for the next 10 years at minimum?

 

Enterprise Value/Earnings: 21 times. And its in Renminbi too, not Ringgit Malaysia. Why do people (more accurately, why did i) bother with KLSE.

 

 

NYSE/NASDAQ

 

  • Google

Doubled earnings in 3 years, and grew 15% year on year for 5 years.

 

This company literally forms the backbone of the internet and has more than 97% market share in every country except for China (China Wall), Japan (75% Market Share, Yahoo Japan 21%) and Korea (60% share Market Share, Naver 20%).

 

Maybe I’m stupid, but after studying it for quite a while, i noticed that in the last two they are taking a lot of initiatives to stop giving free organic results to businesses that survive mostly on Google.

 

Look at Tripadvisor, Trivago etc, their profit dropped like a rock in 2018 and 2019, why?

 

Google created google hotels, a better of tool to present paid ads, which make people much more inclined to click on paid ads instead of organic ads, instantly driving up cost for people who rely on google for their business.

 

This is also the backbone of the internet.

 

There is a saying I remembered, To keep a loyal and great follower, you must spend gold and silver. But to find a great person and have them follow you, gold and silver is not enough.

 

It is far far far easier for Google to maintain their market position, than for you to displace it.

 

Right now Google has a market capitalization of USD750 billion, if someone gave me USD1 Trillion and asked me to replace Google, i wouldn’t even know where to start, and the money is not even close to being enough.

 

I may be a bit stupid for this, but honestly, for many businesses, give me enough money, and I know how to replace it.

 

It may not be profitable or as profitable as the previous one, but I think I can get very significant market share given enough money, but when it comes to Google, I honestly have no idea how to even go about.

 

The only idea I can think of is, somehow get a product as good as google’s, and it needs to pervade every part of the internet.

 

And instead of having people pay you to put ads, you now pay people to put ads on your search engine, and you also pay people for using your search engine etc. And you pray to god, however much money you have is enough to burn google out and gain enough market share, to enable you to start charging.

 

I wonder if there is even enough liquid cash to in the world to make this happen.

 

And the price for this wonderful business that doubled earnings in 3 year, and grew 15% year on year for 5 years.

 

Enterprise Value/Earnings: 17 times.

 

Honestly, don’t even need to think.

 

10 years from now, I guarantee at minimum 80% of ad revenue will flow through Google and Facebook.

 

 

  • Facebook

There is only one way to beat Google, which is too have people know your site name directly and visit it directly.

 

And Facebook is number 1 on this.

 

There is quite frankly no better aggregator of information than Facebook.

 

I don’t know how to make this any clearer. You want a place to be able to keep updated with friends, family, news, articles, hobbies, whatever it is, as long as its not illegal or too damn controversial, this is it. You really only need just Facebook and Instagram.

 

Facebook is also the reason why new YouTuber’s are getting a lot less these days, with many of them operating directly on Facebook. They are now the Kings of Short Videos, with Youtube focusing on the long ones.

 

With the gigantic wealth of information of they have on your life (and the fact they use your Whatsapp chats to identify what your interested in at this moment in time), they can deliver perfectly targeted ads to you.

 

In South East Asian countries, ads on Facebook actually give way better returns than ads on Google. Literally the only scenario where Google loses on ads.

 

And the price of this great business that grew topline and bottom line at 20% per year for 5 years?

 

Enterprise Value/Profit: 17 times (excluding 5bil one off legal cost in 2019).

 

Don’t need think so much.

 

Honestly with this kind of prices for these kinds of businesses, I don’t know why we even need to bother with KLSE markets. Our glove-makers cost 3 times more than Facebook or Google, and the business is nowhere near as good, look at Hartalega's (amazing management) profit margin go down every year.

 

 

  • Berkshire Hathaway

Warren Buffet's company.

 

Enterprise Value (exclude investment portfolio)/Earnings: 10-13 times.

 

Why bother with KLSE really.

 

 

 

How I plan to move forward

Last year, I decided to slowly start the process of moving most of my portfolio to foreign markets over time.

 

I estimated that I could move maybe 20-25% to foreign markets in 2020, by unwinding some of the positions that I expected to go up (joke of the year), and moving in all new cash to it directly.

 

However, the events that transpired in the last month, resulted in me drawing down credit lines and additional cash very quickly and pouring it all into the foreign markets.

 

Today, it is currently 35% plus of my portfolio and growing quite swiftly I would think.

 

 

Long Term
Malaysia as a country, that will forever be beholden to religious, racial and royal considerations, which will slow its economic growth.

 

Nice place to live, cheap cost of living if you’re earning foreign currency, but not a good place to make or invest money.

 

I want to invest my money, in a place where it is packed with people who are very focused on making money, pragmatic, logical and very hardworking in this regard.

 

This means China, Taiwan, Hong Kong (mostly China companies that are listed in HK) and Singapore.

 

And in terms of currency, i do not see any future increase in demand for our currencies, nor do the size of our debt give me any comfort (we are not reserve currency of the world, so any increase in debt is not a good thing).

 

Long term wise, I would rather keep my money in Singaporean Dollars.

 

Singapore runs a fiscal surplus every year except in special situations and have more than USD 1 trillion in reserves. To overcome this COVID19 recession, they merely needed to dip a little into that reserves.

 

Malaysia on the other hand, probably need to increase government debt by at least 15%.

 

And in terms of investment, I think I’m going to be much pickier about the companies I invest in.

 

Coming into this recession, I had about 15% of my portfolio in net-nets etc. They did not hold up in price, nor was I inclined to top up given the other opportunities on hand, which speaks volumes.

 

I would have rather they be cash.

 

Its probably time for me to get a “You’re not a liquidator” tattoo, to really carve this into my brain.

 

There is little point in buying net-nets, especially property companies (where you will likely get privatized at far below RNAV or even Net Asset), unless you know you can hold at least 30-50% of the votes and get your own Board of Director seat, and liquidate / financialize the company.

 

 

Short Term

Well, as I said earlier, i had a real struggle with this, trying desperately to time the bottom for a grand total of 2 days before coming to my senses.

 

In the end, I managed to calm my head down by remembering that knowing where markets will go to, is important, but unknowable.

 

The goal is to know what is important and knowable, and to work on that.

 

Then, I proceeded to take Charlie Munger’s advice and invert.

 

I decided to find out, what would I regret 3 years from now about these few weeks / months and, to avoid doing that.

 

What i know is this, 3 years from now, i will regret 3 things.

 

  1. I did not buy enough or aggressively enough.
  2. I bought too much, over-leveraged and ruined myself.
  3. I was extremely wrong about my analysis, that even such depressed prices were not enough to prevent a permanent loss of capital.

 

I’ll just try and avoid all 3.

 

And if this recession turns out to be a depression, and it lasted for 3 years along with the virus.

 

Well, I don’t think cash is what I wish I was holding, it would be a basement full of food.

 

And so, I’ll buy a bit more canned food or dried food than usual each time, sharpen that big parang, and exercise more so that I’m not useless and can defend myself, my family and my food during a zombie apocalypse.

 

Probably should find a way to buy a gun if I see even a hint of a semi-zombie. I kid, i kid.

 

 

 

Conclusions

I paraphrased the title of this piece, with the title of a book from John Brooks.

It was called “Once in Golconda” and was about the rise and fall of the 1930 Great Depression.

John Brooks also happened to have written "Business Adventures", which Warren Buffet and Bill Gates called the best business books they have ever read.

Its pretty good, here is a link to a copy.

Disclaimers: Refer here.

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Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com

 

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  WaKaLuGong likes this.
 
Philip ( buy what you understand) What use for titles, ideas without conviction and concrete results is nothing more than dreams.

What is the difference between Calvin tan and choivo? Nothing. Both write good articles, and both say wonderful things.

But would you buy rcecap? Or pay rm5000 for a "research" into rcecap?

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Mar 28, 2020 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

Haha,
Thinkers value ideas
Egoistic value his own opinion
Rich people value the length of his sausage
And super rich people value title
So when Philip going to get a Dato, Dato’ Sri, Tan Sri or Tun title?
28/03/2020 10:57 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) The thing is, many so called super "wannabe" investors Trainers like to talk about being like Charlie and warren etc, but fall to the wayside when push comes to shove. They like to talk about value investing, how they made 100% on this and that, and how they know how to value and buy.

But the one constant which none of them have despite all the post and comments, none have it except for Koon yew yin and ooi Tek bee,

Jonathan Choi yi kit does not have it.
Ricky yeoh does not have it.
Calvin tan eng yet does not have it.
Icon8888 does not have it.
Kcchongz does not have it. ( He however has a book, how useful I don't know).
Stockraider definitely does not have it.
Louisinvesting does not have it.
Greentrades does not have it.

What all of these people who comment so much on i3 forums is the lack transparent, trackable portfolio ( its a free simple tool that exists on i3 forum, funny how very few people use it.)

Why? They will give you excuses like how they don't want people to frontrun them ( which is silly when you really think about it, they can buy first then update), but the fact of the matter is: once keyed in they will be unable to delete the portfolio entries or replace it with fake entries, but must constantly be on the public eye to see if their blogs and writings jive with their market results.

Choivo tries to do it, buy half heartedly. He kind of tells you what he buys, buy hides it behind xx and XX stocks, and makes you guess what he holds. But he did not tell your boss positions, or when he sells.

But the thing is, what you bought is not so much as important as what you sell. More important that what you bought and sold, is your conviction and the total amounts of each stock that you bought or sold.

They like to talk the talk, but when it comes to walking the walk, they somehow fall apart.

And the first thing they dive into is the quarterly results of warrens Berkshire reports.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/reports.html

I find it very tiresome( because I see it all the time), but my belief is this: if you want to be a public figure and write all sorts of articles and promotionals, you need to be accredited. If I wrote a medical journal, but never having spent a day in medical school, I could convince a lot a random idiots into taking my words verbatim acting wrongly on my "advice".

Financial "education" has the same effect on that EVERYONE is suddenly an expert on the companies that they buy. EVERYONE! Trust me. Calvin tan is as expert on networking infrastructure, choivo is an expert on petroleum refineries. This has a lot of potential for destruction, especially for eager young investors out to make a quick buck.

Who do you believe? In the real world, they would not be able to publish such things without a financial advisor license, a prospectus of their 5 year results and a full disclosure on their fund size.

But here in the internet, they can hide behind blogs and write whatever they want.

Here is the real guide: you trust Warren buffet and Charles munger not because of what they say or do, but the financial reports that show their results and the acumen.

So I tell you: listen with one ear. If they don't have financials or a history of results, treat it as fantasy and do not buy anything based on simple recommendations. Instead listen to them for a few years, build their portfolio for them ( they will always tell you when they buy, but never when they sell. Period.) Then you will quickly realize what quacks they really are.

I put KYY and OTB on a different scale though ( KYY when he buys you WILL know it, but you when he sells you will ALSO know it, albeit when the stock crashes). OTB makes money from classes and subscription, so he has to maintain a transparent form of investing. I can respect that.
28/03/2020 11:00 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I remember this article you wrote long ago, but failed to realize the truth, beautiful words and wonderful articles do not make an investor. You would have been better off having access to choivo, OTB and koon portfolio and long term performance before you had jumped into hengyuan, xinquan and many of the stocks that was bought.

But, again hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2018-12-02-story184767-My_response_to_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Remember_Croesus.jsp
28/03/2020 11:07 AM
qqq33333333 making money is all about attitude........

confidence and being proactive goes a long way.


the other big problem is the ability to avoid train wrecks.....some people do it very well................
28/03/2020 11:20 AM
Ayoyo One can say Phillip is arrogant but he's entitled to it for he has a single conviction and stands by it... Too many analysts have muddle thoughts and a long list of disclaimers

Sure, the markets are volatile and reacting to the slightest of Information.. Your analysis would have factored these in and as long as it's happening within your realm of possibilities, that conviction stays

Choivo's article is good and reflects that one is only human and the nature of fear and uncertainties are gripping everyone else

From a behavioral analysis standpoint, my anticipation would be
-a sharp correction from now, testing recent or breaking recent lows as more news of infection comes in
- when it settles down, another relief rally ensues
- then a correction of a higher low, as markets grapple with how the stimulus would trickle down or implemented effectively
- a ding dong of sorts and then boom

In all scenarios, pay attention to news flows, when bad news no longer bring down prices, watch for rebound and vice versa
28/03/2020 11:24 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Sslee,

Too bad you know nothing about me. But if you did know, you would understand that engineers love the process of doing something rather than only the results. Only businessman like you want 1 year 100% results rather than learning the art of investment.

My question is still relevant and important. I am looking for a true teacher to learn from, not a publicist.

All the great investors have a public portfolio with transparent results.

Warren has one.
Munger has one.
Howard marks has one.
Peter lunch has one.
Carl Icahn has one.
Even bill ackman has one.

Documented and tracked.

A garbage disposal guy working in New Zealand could write a book and plagiarize all of the value investing concepts out there into a book. But who would read it if that garbage disposal guy did not have results?

It's like asking a zunar to write a book about governing a nation.

Yeah right.
28/03/2020 11:26 AM
qqq33333333 writing skills is not a prerequisite for making the right decisions...............


the two skills are unrelated.
28/03/2020 11:27 AM
qqq33333333 Posted by Philip ( Dr. Fauci my Hero) > Mar 28, 2020 11:26 AM | Report Abuse

the process of doing something
==============


that is what it is all about..........


rising tides lifts all boats...............at the right time, everyone is a genius.



but....the process is also not a fixed thing. I don't know how long it takes to have a process but surely a long long time .......and yet, the process also can change any time ...........should change in the light new circumstances.



yes, its the process that counts....but not other people process that counts but the own process that counts.
28/03/2020 11:39 AM
qqq33333333 the history of Bursa 2020............make more lose more, ............make less lose less.


That is the real history of bursa 2020.
28/03/2020 11:46 AM
qqq33333333 whether got writing skill or no writing skill............none can escape from the real history of bursa 2020..............make more lose more, ...........make less lose less.
28/03/2020 11:48 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
You earned my trust but not my respect and below are the reasons why:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2018-02-13-story147404-CNY_SHARING_RESPECT.jsp

Thank you.
P/S: By the way the title thing is a sarcastic way to tell you perhaps you should seek one to fit your ego.
28/03/2020 12:14 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I'm sorry. I don't need your trust or your respect. I am just here to share my investing results, what I learn from REAL investors in the bursa forum, and what scams and information are being run around by fake sifus.

I am not here to make friends, or share my phone number, or sell classes or subscriptions or my latest book.

I call it as I see fit. This is a free forum after all, where comments and opinions are shared around like toilet paper. But the value of the comments and opinions can only work if there are results to back it up.

There are many real investors around in the forums which I am learning from everyday (I have bought more new stocks in the last year than I have in the last 5). These are thanks to many of them quietly offering up very good information and comments without the "mumbo jumbo" that many of them love. What does religion, chedet, communication blogs have to do with stockpicking.

Sadly, the ones that talk the most have the least to offer. (in your 144 blog post, choivo 64 blogs, versus my 34 blog posts, what have we learned?)

Your insas bet and choivo rcecap bet has the same results for the last 2+ years, and I find I have neither respect nor trust for both of your stock picks. I'm sorry if you feel offended and you think this is egoistic/arrogant, but I am just pointing out a simple fact.

If you held insas and rcecap for the last 3-5 years, you would not have made sufficient profit to make up for the risk you bear in buying a stock. You may not have understood what I am telling you back in 2019, but in 2020 when the 3 black swan events hit, you finally learn what RISK is.

I'm sorry you had to learn it the hard way, but the world is not out to gain your trust or respect. It just shows you what real world investing is like. As I myself am still learning, maybe you should stop trying to learn how to make friends on the forum, but instead learn how to buy stocks well.

>>>>>>>>

Dear Philip,
You earned my trust but not my respect and below are the reasons why:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2018-02-13-story147404-CN...

Thank you.
P/S: By the way the title thing is a sarcastic way to tell you perhaps you should seek one to fit your ego.
28/03/2020 2:37 PM
Choivo Capital Philip,

If you bought my RCE instead of your PCHEM, you would be much better off now.

Did you manage to buy more StoneCo or Pasegmono this round? I tripled my position on both on the very bottom.
====



Well, i do think i write far better than my investment results. And whether this means that i'm a good writer, or just a bad investor, well , i don't know.

Either way, given my current returns, i would take whatever investment advice given by myself with a healthy amount of salt.

In any event, my friends, what you buy or sell this year is very likely to determine your investment return for the next 10-15 years, make it count.

And if i cannot obtain above average returns despite being able to be a position to buy so many good companies at rock bottom prices.

Well, i would likely wind down my fund as outsider investments mature, put 75% of my own money into US, GLOBAL and CHINA index funds, and invest the rest on my own picks.

I still love this process of investing too much. Its just so enjoyable digging into the companies and trying to understand how the world works.

===

I won't be replying here anymore as i just don't want to be caught up in arguing with people or doing zero value activities.

Send me an email if you guys have any questions that you want my personal response to.
28/03/2020 2:47 PM
Choivo Capital Posted by vesting > Mar 28, 2020 8:02 AM | Report Abuse

What platform you are using to invest in SG, HK, China and US?

=====

Interactive brokers
28/03/2020 2:49 PM
Choivo Capital Phillip,

You're smarter than me.

You know how to pay 50PE for a chicken, egg, fish products, palm oil and 24/7 mart company that make ROE of 12%, and grow earnings at 5% per annum for the last 5 years.

The future you can see with such certainty for this company, i am not good enough to see.

I'm only smart enough to pay 17PE for google, the backbone of the internet, which grew 20% per annum for the last 5 years, and can give you ROE of 35%.

On having a trackable portfolio, well that's a fair point phillip.

If i ever stop running my fund, i'll make mine public.

Or you can just put RM500k with me, and i'll send you a copy of the letter with all my positions.
28/03/2020 3:01 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) That is disgusting. Why would I even do that? Knowing your returns? I might as well give 500K as a donation to the Covid-19 fund.

In fact, sorry, I already have. I have no wish to put money with frauds.

>>>>>>

Or you can just put RM500k with me, and i'll send you a copy of the letter with all my positions.
28/03/2020 3:12 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Sure thing kid, sure thing. In the last 5 years zero mention of Google. Now suddenly he says he bought Google which grew for the last 5 years. Which part of the portfolio was this? xx stock? Or XX stock?

Too bad. I dont believe you are smart, and I dont believe you bought google 5 years ago.

>>>>>>>

I'm only smart enough to pay 17PE for google, the backbone of the internet, which grew 20% per annum for the last 5 years, and can give you ROE of 35%.
28/03/2020 3:14 PM
probability same old stories here...dizzying long write up...with some recommendation without are compelling reason.....and the sifus keep arguing without a clear direction...

i agree with ayoyo comments above..

the question now is...shall we go for stocks like Harta or greatly depressed due to covid like GenM?

both are good companies...but the answer depends on WHEN (not will) a cure to covid-19 will be discovered and implemented..

its a difficult question, but wish some young scientist are available in i3 instead of young accountants....to figure this out.
28/03/2020 3:17 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Wow, on top of working late every night? And running a second business with your girlfriend? And doing auditing? and so much? Oh gosh, no wonder you have to hide your results. The lack of focus must be debilitating.

See, this is what I mean. ALL frauds talk a good story,goes on stage and talks in public, but when push comes to shove, they really do have very little to show for it.

I think I will stop here. You have no idea how many investors fell into your trap of rcecap over the years. Maybe you should owe it to them instead.

>>>>>>

If i ever stop running my fund, i'll make mine public.
28/03/2020 3:17 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) first asking for MYR5000 for research into RCECAP which you subsequently sold. Now asking an old man for his MYR500K to put into your loss making "fund"? it's not a fund until you start making money my young friend. Until you do, it's called a SCAM.
28/03/2020 3:20 PM
probability sslee, please help with your research...how fast a cure will be likely found and how the world and market be by then

TQ
28/03/2020 3:20 PM
probability i think the cheap and quick test kits...like the below, might end the pandemic very fast...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england

Self-testing at home to find out whether somebody has had Covid-19 is an efficient way to find out if they are safe to return to work, a senior health official has said.

Prof Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, told the health select committee that finger-prick home tests would be available very soon. “We expect that to come within a couple of weeks, but I wouldn’t want to promise on that,” she said.
28/03/2020 3:24 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Researches have found a somewhat effective cure (ask dr fauci) and pushing to phase 2 of clinical trials. The estimation is between 6 months to 24 months. I believe it will usually be in the middle: aka 12 months.

Harta and topglove will not go down (in fact guaranteed to go up as worldwide shortage of gloves, and capacity filled to the brim and still supply is not met). GENM 31-DEC-19 results have not factored into the emptiness of 31-MAC-20 quarter, and the next 3 months as no one will be in the mood to go on a holiday. Expect if a cure is found and market belief is up that things will recover by christmas DEC-20, and return of full results by 21', as predicted by Dr. Fauci.

In either case, don't trust my words, as I dont write beautiful prose like Choivo. Take my predictions with a huge block of salt, but compare it with my portfolio investment results to see how I respond to my predictions and how I invest accordingly.

That is the only thing we can do. Hope we all survive the journey together, instead of listening to blind prophets who are suddenly in OWNERSHIP of GOOGLE 5 years ago while never mentioning it once.



>>>>>>>

Posted by probability > Mar 28, 2020 3:17 PM | Report Abuse

same old stories here...dizzying long write up...with some recommendation without are compelling reason.....and the sifus keep arguing without a clear direction...

i agree with ayoyo comments above..

the question now is...shall we go for stocks like Harta or greatly depressed due to covid like GenM?

both are good companies...but the answer depends on WHEN (not will) a cure to covid-19 will be discovered and implemented..

its a difficult question, but wish some young scientist are available in i3 instead of young accountants....to figure this out.
28/03/2020 3:27 PM
probability thanks for the well reasoned opinion Philip..sounds very logical

let me find out who is this Dr.Fauci..
28/03/2020 3:33 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) His concurrent theme is all on EXPORTS. With markets shutting down the world over, supplies of materials delays (and the inevitable price increases when demand is over supply), ability to keep contract obligations (when faced with ability to churn out product) , and the market demand for products abroad versus locally sourced products (virus changing globalisation mindsets), will make a lot of countries think deep and realize the value of a homegrown support industry instead of relying overseas. I believe he is in for a huge huge shock as the 2020 results will clearly show.

He doesn't realize what is cheap, can go oh-so-much-cheaper.

Many businesses that do not have a direct monopoly in the market will suffer as everyone will be selling at cut throat prices to survive, and export markets will be closed for year to come.


>>>>>>

KLSE

Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Berhad – I wrote about it before and I don’t think I need to explain further.
Magni-Tech Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 40%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
Favelle Favco Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 15%), (EV/Earnings: 2.3 times)
Lii Hen Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 28%), (EV/Earnings: 3.2 times)
Poh Huat Resources Holdings Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 16%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
Hong Leong Industries Berhad – (ROE excl Net Cash: 30%), (EV/Earnings: 3 times)
Homeritz Corporation Berhad - (ROE excl Net Cash: 30%), (EV/Earnings: 2.5 times)
Uchi Technologies Berhad - (ROE excl Net Cash: 250%), (EV/Earnings: 10.5 times)


These are companies who i think their earning power will not be diminished after this virus blows over, and have a strong history of paying out earnings, and have good/decent capital allocation abilities (ie no unnecessary ventures).
28/03/2020 3:39 PM
Choivo Capital Yeap,

Because the world will shut down forever.

And these companies are heavily in debt and won't be able to survive.
28/03/2020 3:44 PM
probability Larry Brilliant, The man who wrote the movie Contagion - The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

If you were the president for one day, what would you say in the daily briefing?

I would begin the press conference by saying "Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to Ron Klain—he was the Ebola czar [under President Barack Obama], and now I’ve called him back and made him Covid czar. Everything will be centralized under one person who has the respect of both the public health community and the political community." We're a divided country right now.

Right now, Tony Fauci [head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] is the closest that we come to that.
.......................................................

personally i hope rapid test kits coupled with mobile monitoring of patients locations will enable control like how south korea did everywhere in the world soon..
28/03/2020 3:48 PM
probability the above means we can overcome the virus via technology even without a vaccine much earlier
28/03/2020 3:49 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) One thing where this kid is right on Google, AND why I dont buy Apple NOR google, is the concept of addresable market.

There is a simple reason why Google and Apple is below PE30 (no longer the Tech darlings), this is because they have already gone past the growth stage (understand the term TOTAL ADDRESABLE MARKET). Google is everywhere, Apple smartphones is already losing market share (https://marketrealist.com/2019/08/iphone-loses-global-smartphone-market-share/).

Where else can Google grow to? Google is like a public utility, if it demands too much, it will face repercussions from USA, EU (and it already has). Therefore, there are many restrictions already to what Google is allowed or not allowed to do. If he thinks it can continue to expand (to MARS maybe?) at previous speeds, then he should probably listen to more berkshire meetings. Choivo seems to think he knows a lot, but unfortunately he is way outside his circle of competence.

FYI the backbone of the internet is not Google, its is Amazon AWS. IF it disappeared, half of the websites in the world will go down. Google has already thrown a lot of money into every nook and cranny to find success, with some mixed and others losses. IT has been unable to create a demand for its hardware (from google glass, to google nexus, etc) similar to microsoft, and although I will grant you waymo is going to change the world, it still remains to be seen.

I would respect Choivo more if he bought google 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago.

But despite his wild claims, I doubt he had the investing acument to value or buy google when the googling was good.

If he had clearly shown his portfolio, we would have known it was true or false, and I would have had more respect for his investing skills then.

But now? He can create whatever stories he wants, it just sounds like fake news.

>>>>>>>>

Google
Doubled earnings in 3 years, and grew 15% year on year for 5 years.



This company literally forms the backbone of the internet and has more than 97% market share in every country except for China (China Wall), Japan (75% Market Share, Yahoo Japan 21%) and Korea (60% share Market Share, Naver 20%).
28/03/2020 3:51 PM
ahbah Pak Din oredi bunuh the mkt killer bear with his Stimulus Plan.

Our whole mkt now is very chip.

Masuk.

And U will not be left behind !
28/03/2020 3:57 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) And funnily enough, how do I know that? It is not because I am some form of brilliant investor, but because I listen a lot, and scuttlebutt. My daughter works for amzn AWS division in US, and I believe her more than some kid who spent a few hours reading some tech journals and annual reports and suddenly believes he is an expert on Google.

>>>>>>>>

FYI the backbone of the internet is not Google, its is Amazon AWS. IF it disappeared, half of the websites in the world will go down.
28/03/2020 3:59 PM
Ayoyo Phillip, Dr fauci is pro big pharma.. He is suppressing or refusing to consider many top orthomolecular scientists and physicians, who tout our immune system response is the best cure for covid-19

You should follow the works of Dr Andrew cheng (who used vitamin C to successfully treat covid-19 patients in China), Dr Shiva Ayyadurai, brilliant MIT scientist and biologist who is chastising fauci - Dr Shiva recommends vitamin A, C, and D.... Also Dr Andrew Saul, Dr John Bergman, Dr Bruce Lipton etc...

This is the perplexing part - you have no cure, you start toying with some malaria, hiv drugs to treat patients but yet refuse to consider the only thing that's keeping humanity alive up to now - how to boost up our weakened immune system response
28/03/2020 4:04 PM
ahbah ,the markets will come back, they always do.. You just need to be there to see it happens.. This is 100% mkt truth with no dispute !

Masukkkkk first.

And U will not be left behind !
28/03/2020 4:06 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I think you have been watching too many TV shows. Do you really think Vitamin C is going to treat covid-19 patients?

In any case, anyone that is willing to try to take the mic from donald trump is good in my books.

>>>>>>>>

Dr Andrew cheng (who used vitamin C to successfully treat covid-19 patients in China), Dr Shiva Ayyadurai, brilliant MIT scientist and biologist who is chastising fauci - Dr Shiva recommends vitamin A, C, and D.... Also Dr Andrew Saul, Dr John Bergman, Dr Bruce Lipton etc...
28/03/2020 4:06 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) If you think bear market is that easy, you still have a thing or two to learn.

>>>>>>>>

ahbah Pak Din oredi bunuh the mkt killer bear with his Stimulus Plan.

Our whole mkt now is very chip.

Masuk.

And U will not be left behind !
28/03/2020 3:57 PM
28/03/2020 4:08 PM
Ayoyo Phillip, just a reminder - you are taking in millions of pathogens everyday - just by breathing and the only thing that is keeping you alive today is your immune system response

Don't have to believe me.. Just google up Dr Richard Cheng, his work was published in a respected science journal two days ago, worked with Shanghai hospitals to admister IVC successfully to 50 covid-19 patients and Dr Shiva Ayyadurai - he is openly chastising fauci now...

Two days ago, new York post reported a hospital has started vitamin C treatment protocol on covid-19 patients but they way short on supplies

This is not fiction.. Every one of them is available online

The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open
28/03/2020 4:12 PM
ahbah Please tell us what is 'a thing or two to learn'. Thanks.
28/03/2020 4:20 PM
Flintstones Philip is a gods send in this forum. This is a man with results. Unlike kc chong who only knows how to write beautiful articles with business english or icon8888 who only knows how to punt here and punt there.
28/03/2020 4:20 PM
ahbah We all welcome mkt gods here to guide us. Thanks.
28/03/2020 4:24 PM
samyew1234 wah, u all talk so much, conclusion is ? no conclusion
28/03/2020 4:50 PM
ahbah Verdict : masuk first

If later, another pandemic will come n infect us here n the pandemic is FOMO ! And FOMO is even more deadly than covid-19 !
28/03/2020 4:58 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2020/03/25/Hospital-turns-to-high-dose-vitamin-C-to-fight-coronavirus#

You mean this vitamin c intravenous?

This Dr Cheng has been pushing vitamin c for everything from cancer cure to ICU stays since 2018 on Twitter. How many doctors do you know are so active online on Twitter? He even has a company that produces vc intravenously. I don't know about you, if vitamin c was such a wonder drug, im sure it would have been tried out in huge dosage by now.

But the fact is vitamin c is being used in conjunction with other anti inflammatory and control drugs so you cannot just say vitamin c is the cure all end all for covid19 and cancer....

https://twitter.com/drrichardcheng1?lang=en

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ayoyo > Mar 28, 2020 4:12 PM | Report Abuse

Phillip, just a reminder - you are taking in millions of pathogens everyday - just by breathing and the only thing that is keeping you alive today is your immune system response

Don't have to believe me.. Just google up Dr Richard Cheng, his work was published in a respected science journal two days ago, worked with Shanghai hospitals to admister IVC successfully to 50 covid-19 patients and Dr Shiva Ayyadurai - he is openly chastising fauci now...

Two days ago, new York post reported a hospital has started vitamin C treatment protocol on covid-19 patients but they way short on supplies

This is not fiction.. Every one of them is available online

The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open
28/03/2020 5:56 PM
qqq33333333 wallen the bufalo cannot stand aside but I can...........
28/03/2020 6:01 PM
qqq33333333 virus vs capitalism................

throw money away , problem magically solved...............

Malaysia $ 260 billion...............

who don't know how to spend money? Malay unity government know how to spend money, know how to earn money or not?


big difference between spending money and spending money wisely...............
28/03/2020 6:04 PM
Sslee Dear all,
Is Philip real?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-03-28-story-h1485698175-IS_PHILIP_REAL.jsp
28/03/2020 9:01 PM
Ayoyo Phillip,

No one is saying vitamin C is the only cure.. Are you saying your body is made of a single nutrient? Of course not.. That's plain dumb..

If you read the works of orthomolecular physicists on covid-19, the few vitamins and supplements that are recommended by them, which they seemed to collectively agree on, is vitamin A, C, D, zinc - some combine other antioxidants to reduce inflammation while others push antimicrobial solution like Lugol's iodine..

The use of it in combination will stimulate the immune system activate the white blood cells to fight the infection, reduce inflammation - patients die from the inflammation and secondary infections than covid-19 itself - plus good sleep, lots of water and reduced stress all helps

Read Dr Shiva Ayyadurai letter to Trump.. It's online.. He details clearly the working of the immune system and why he recommended those supplements.. He's an double PhD MIT scientist and biologist, running for senate now...

And just because some doctor is on Twitter, he's not qualified? And then we have trump

Take a BIG note of this - the supplements mentioned above is NOT patentable and they are available cheaply hence is of little value for mainstream medicine to push for

You may be competent on many things but your ignorance shows when it comes to natural health... I have not seen a doctor nor taken a single pill for the past 7 years...

One tip for you - the body is lacking in nutrients, not medicine - give your body the nutrients and nutrition it needs and you'll be amazed by how well it can heal itself

Read more of Dr Shiva's work - he sees a systems based approach to healing than simply isolating a disease and then treating it with medicine

This is my last post on this topic for I do not wish to pollute this forum.... If you still think medicine is your only cure, so be it.. Whatever floats your boat

Cheers
28/03/2020 9:31 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Ok you seem to be an expert epidemiologist. I shall bow to your expertise and your proposal that intravenous high dosage of vitamin c can cure covid19. With the entire world eager to try anything, the anti malarial drug chloroquine should stop being on phase 2 of clinical trials and should push IVC to phase 1 instead.

I wonder if CDC is aware of this treatment? I guess we can go check.


>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/fake-coronavirus-cures-part-3-vitamin-c-isnt-a-shield/
28/03/2020 10:01 PM
Ayoyo Yes, you are always right! :)
28/03/2020 10:07 PM
Choivo Capital Phillip,

On Google and Facebook

Why didnt i buy it 10 years ago? I was 17 then, my allowance used to be RM30 a month, when i worked during school holiday for RM900 for 12 hours a day, 6 days a week. I had to save that up to try and pay for A levels as my family didnt have much money then. Did STPM instead and spend that money on my chartered accountancy papers.

Why didnt i buy it in 2016, when i first started? i procrastinated about opening a foreign account, and i wanted to focus on Malaysian ones first. Stupid decision i know.
======

Too lazy to reply all your comments, but let me touch on the total addressable market (TAM) for google and facebook.

Very simple statistics for me to give you.

Internet penetration of global population 10 years ago is 25%, today it is 50%.

Digital ad spending share of the total 10 years ago is 30-35% (depending on stats) today it is 50.1%

Let me ask you, 10-20 years from now, that percentage will be up or down? The size of the pie as a whole will be up or down? And how much more up or down leh?

=====

If based on those statistics, you think Google and FB got TAM problem, i suggest you look much much deeper into all of your picks.

This one is like kettle calling the snow black.

Lets place a bet, EPS basis, 5 years from now, i think FB and GOOG's will grow much more than QL's.

And these two co's are 17PE vs your 50PE one.
01/04/2020 3:15 AM
Choivo Capital In any event, at today's price, im only paying 30% more for goog compared to 3 years ago, an 15% more compared to 2 years ago.

So not all is lost.
01/04/2020 3:26 AM


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