Highlights

PublicInvest Research

Author: PublicInvest   |   Latest post: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:38 AM

 

Technical Buy: MAHSING (8583)

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:38 AM


  • Target Price: RM0.750, RM0.785
  • Last closing price: RM0.710
  • Potential return: 5.6%, 10.5%
  • Support: RM0.705
  • Stop Loss: RM0.695

Possible for bottom fishing. MAHSING is staging a potential recovery from its consolidation phase. Improving RSI and MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in near term. Should resistance level of RM0.725 be broken, it may continue to lift price higher to subsequent resistance levels of RM0.750 and RM0.785.

However, failure to hold on to support level of RM0.705 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

Labels: MAHSING
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DiGi.com - Lower Earnings On Higher Costs

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:37 AM


DiGi reported a 9.2% decline in 4QFY19 net profit to RM342.9m. Stripping out non-operating items in relation to its IT transition cost amounting to RM8.6m, DiGi’s 4QFY19 core profit dropped by 7% YoY. For the full-year, core profit fell by 6.5% YoY to RM1.4bn, accounting for 97% and 99% of consensus and our forecasts respectively. Although FY19 revenue was flat, the drop in core earnings was mainly due to the adoption of MFRS 16, which has inflated depreciation and interest costs. We adjust down our FY20-21F earnings forecasts by 5% as we impute a higher depreciation cost assumption. As a result, our DCF-based TP increases slightly from RM4.72 to RM4.75. Maintain Neutral on DiGi. A fourth interim dividend of 4.4sen per share was declared (4QFY18: 4.8sen).

  • 4QFY19 revenue was flat as the decline in prepaid revenue was offset by higher postpaid revenue and device sales. Prepaid subscriber base fell by 6.8% YoY to 8.2m while postpaid customer base improved by 8.1% YoY to 3m. In terms of ARPU, prepaid was unchanged at RM30 though postpaid improved marginally by 1.4% to RM72. Meanwhile, device sales increased slightly by <2% to RM241m. Sequentially, total subscriber base continued to fall while blended ARPU has improved, albeit marginally.
  • 4QFY19 net profit dragged by higher costs, mainly due to the adoption of MFRS 16, which resulted in higher depreciation and interest costs. An operating model transition cost of RM8.6m was incurred in relation to the group’s IT operations, following its collaboration with a managed service provider in establishing a common delivery centre.
  • Testing of 5G capabilities. DiGi has recently announced its participation in several 5G initiatives in Langkawi involving the testing of 5G network sharing with Telekom Malaysia, partnership with a hospital to pilot the first 5G connected ambulance as well as the offering of Malaysia’s first real-time virtual tourism experience in Langkawi International Airport. All these are part of the aspiration in making Malaysia the first country to spearhead 5G implementation in ASEAN. Although the government is targeting 5G commercialization by 3Q this year, we believe the potential impact would be higher capex but minimal earnings accretion due to slow take-up rate from SMEs and government entities in the early years of implementation.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

Labels: DIGI
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Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) - Another OPR Cut

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:36 AM


Bank Negara Malaysia announced another OPR cut by 25 bps to 2.75% from 3.00% after the rate cut back announced back in May 2019. This comes as a positive surprise and, in our view, likely to be mildly positive to the sector due to the cost savings from lower interest rates on REITs’ floating rate debt. That said, impact to earnings is marginal with the lower finance costs only expected to increase earnings (of those REIT with floating rates) by c.1%, by our estimates. All told, our earnings forecasts and stock TPs are kept unchanged for now. Maintain Neutral as we believe risk-reward is not compelling at current valuations.

  • OPC cut to 2.75%. Bank Negara Malaysia announced that it has reduced the OPR to 2.75% from 3.00% at yesterday’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which came as a slight surprise. The latest OPR move is a pre-emptive measure to secure the improving growth trajectory amid price stability as latest indicators and supply disruptions in commodity-related sectors point to moderate expansion of economic activity in the fourth quarter last year. Following this OPR adjustment, our economist believes rate is likely to remain steady in the near term unless there are unexpected exogenous events.
  • Impact to earnings marginal. Among the REITs under our coverage, Sunway REIT”s floating rate loans are at 57%, with Axis REIT at 21%. IGB REIT’s debt is all at fixed rates. Albeit impact being almost marginal, we believe that the low interest rate environment could stoke risk-appetite for asset acquisitions, as most of these are debt-funded.
  • Maintain Neutral. We maintain Neutral on the REIT sector as we believe that valuations are not attractive currently with average net yield hovering at c.5% for the stocks in our REIT universe. Most are also trading above their average yield spreads. We believe that the stocks are fully valued and maintain our Neutral recommendation.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

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Banking - Accommodating Growth

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:35 AM


While consensus had largely been expecting a cut in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) this year, it was likely that none (bar two) had expected it to be in the first policy meeting of the year, especially with the recent dissipation in trade tensions. In the words of the central bank – “Overall investment activity is expected to record a modest recovery, underpinned by ongoing and new projects, both in the public and private sectors. However, downside risks to growth remain. These include uncertainty from various trade negotiations, geopolitical risks, weaker-than-expected growth of major trade partners, heightened volatility in financial markets, and domestic factors that include weakness in commodity-related sectors and delays in the implementation of projects”. On this note, OPR was cut by 0.25% to 2.75%, with the ceiling and floor rates of the corridor correspondingly reduced to 3.00% and 2.50% respectively.

On face value, the move will be negative (sentiment-wise) to the sector though impact could be relatively marginal, earnings-wise. Given that the most recent rate cut was only a year ago, with banks not having altered their portfolios significantly in that time, profits are estimated to take a ~3% hit (full-year effect) on a business-as-usual basis, not accounting for growth factors. Banks could revise lending and saving rates lower by ~20bps in the coming days, similar to the May 2019 cut. With gradual improvements on the macro front coupled with an even lower borrowing rate, we anticipate stronger pick-ups in loan demand to mitigate longer-term impacts of the rate cut. While we maintain our Neutral stance on the sector, we still suggest selective exposure to the sector given lagging valuations to the broader market. For sector exposure, we like AMMB Holdings and CIMB Holdings for their earnings growth stories.

  • Negative impacts (at face value) will come from more immediate cuts to lending rates as compared to deposits. Mitigating factors such as loans mix, deposit mix, improvement in asset qualities could see banks’ profitability being less exposed to negative re-pricing gaps however. Banks with higher levels of fixed-rate loans will be least susceptible, similarly banks with higher levels of lower-cost current account-savings account (CASA deposits). On the asset side, RHB Bank would seem to be the worst hit by this rate cut given its higher proportion of variable rate loans (over total loans) of 88.0%. Though CIMB Group also has a higher proportion of fixed rate loans in its portfolio, 41% of its total loans are overseas exposures that will not be affected by this cut. Interestingly, Alliance Bank has lowered the variable-rate component of its loans book from 89.9% as at December 2018 to 82.9% as at September 2019, shielding it somewhat from this cut.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

Labels: AMBANK, CIMB, RHBBANK
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January 2020 Policy Decision - OPR Cut by 25 Basis Points

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:34 AM


January Policy Decision

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), in a surprise move, decided to reduce the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points at its first policy meeting of the year. BNM cited several growth risks including geopolitical tensions, weaker than-expected growth of major trade partners, heightened volatility in financial markets, weakness in commodity-related sectors, delays in the implementation of projects and uncertainty arising from various trade negotiations. It further stated a moderate economic expansion in the fourth quarter due to supply disruptions in commodity-related sectors.

Growth prospects for Malaysia remain steady nonetheless, underpinned by resilient private sector spending amid a broad-based expansion in key economic sectors. These growth drivers will continue to be supported by stable labour market conditions, wage growth and capacity expansion. Support from external sector could improve amid the de-escalation of trade tensions following the breakthrough in US and China trade negotiations recently.

On balance, our baseline forecast is for the Malaysian economy to remain on a stable growth path, projected to rebound mildly to 4.8% in 2020 (2019E: 4.7%), consistent with the expectation of the Ministry of Finance. Note that BNM is expected to release its 2020 GDP projection in March. Immediate key risks could come from heightened uncertainties in the global and domestic environment including investors’ concern over the coronavirus outbreak in China and prolonged weakness in commodity-related sectors, though the latter could recover once global trade returns to some form of normalcy.

Policy Outlook: Cautious Outlook

Given the downside risks to growth especially on the uncertainty arising from various trade negotiations, there could be another rate cut in the 2H as BNM may want to assess the impact of its two recent monetary interventions (SRR, OPR). This may be more compelling if the growth trajectory slipped below the 4%-range.

Conclusion

The adjustment to the OPR is a pre-emptive measure to protect growth given escalating growth risks. Of particular concern is the uncertainty caused by the on-going trade negotiations and the delay in the implementation of certain projects. BNM is putting growth priority at the forefront as inflation may take a hit with this latest policy movement given the likely pullback in Ringgit.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

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December 2019 CPI - Full Year CPI at 0.7%

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:33 AM


OVERVIEW

Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded mildly to +1.0% YoY in December (November: 0.9%), pushing full year CPI to end at +0.7% in line with our expectation. A benign CPI for the year was driven by the pullback in transportation index (2019: -3.1%; 2018: +1.6%) following the decision to keep petrol prices stable, especially the RON95. This was offset however by cost push factors like the introduction of soda tax (July) and the revision in surcharge for electricity – business (June). CPI was further pushed by the revision in minimum wage effective 1st January 2019 (+10% YoY; RM1,100).

Petrol prices (RON95, diesel) were kept stable since March 2019, while RON97 was re-priced weekly. As only 5% of motorists use this premium petrol, the impact to headline inflation was muted. Increase in 2019 inflation was supported by the rise in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs (2019: +1.9%; 2018: +2.0%), F&B (2019: +1.7%; 2018: +1.6%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2019: +1.5%; 2018: -0.1%) that offset the slowdown in transport (2019: -3.1%; 2018: +1.6%), clothing and footwear (2019: -2.0%; 2018: -2.0%).

Softer demand conditions were evident in 2019 discretionary spending, reflected in the restaurant and hotels sub-index (2019: +1.2%; 2018: +1.6%), a moderation driven by economic uncertainty in light of the US-China trade tensions. This may continue in the near term, weighed by the drop in consumer sentiment in line with the survey by MIER. Discretionary spending may also take a hit following a rise in ‘inflation expectation’ pushed by the decision to rationalize costs of certain good and services in 2020 (e.g. water, medical).

On a monthly- and seasonally-adjusted basis, CPI inched higher to a +0.2% growth for the month (November: +0.1%) and was held-up by F&B (+0.2%) and hotels and restaurants (+0.2%).

Core inflation ended the year higher at 1.1% (2018: +0.8%) consistent with our projection. Ten (10) out of twelve (12) sub-components registered gains for the year led by F&B (2019: +1.7%; 2018: +1.6%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2019: +1.5%; 2018: -0.1%).

INFLATION MAY RISE IN 2020

CPI may rebound in 2020 driven by the rationalization in the government’s subsidies of essential products and services like petrol, medical and water. Low base effect and weakness in the Ringgit (imported inflation) may also push the CPI to be higher in 2020 (+2.5%; 2019: +0.7%), though this is also contingent on the currently-delayed rollout of the petrol subsidy programme which has held back the refloating of pump prices indefinitely. Its implementation has been put on hold, with no date been given for its official rollout.

We are not perturbed by the sharp rise in the CPI as it will be cost-driven. Prospective pullback in demand may ease pressures on prices. Elevated 2020 CPI is also below the long-term average of 3.0% (1960-2018) and should be viewed favourably especially after the last two years of subdued momentum (2019: +0.7%; 2018: +1.0%).

CAUTIOUS OPR OUTLOOK IN 2020

BNM, in a surprise move, decided to cut the OPR further in its first policymeeting of the year. It cited various growth risks including the delay in the implementation of certain projects. This pushes us to be cautious in our outlook and monetary direction amid the expectation of another rate cut in the 2H.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

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PublicInvest Research Headlines - 23 Jan 2020

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020, 9:30 AM


Economy

US: Existing home sales rebound much more than expected in Dec . After reporting a notable decrease in US existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Wed showing existing home sales rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of Dec. NAR said existing home sales spiked by 3.6% to an annual rate of 5.54m in Dec after tumbling by 1.7% to a rate of 5.35m in Nov. A jump in existing home sales in the South offset declines in the West and Midwest, while existing home sales in the Northeast remained unchanged. (RTT)

US: Trump cranks up pressure on Europe, renewing tariff threat. President Donald Trump put European leaders on notice, renewing a threat to hurt the economies of transatlantic allies if they aren’t willing to compromise on a trade deal before the US elections. Trump departed from the more conciliatory tone he struck earlier in the week, once again highlighting the option of tariffs on imports of European cars and parts and claiming that he targeted China first in his trade war because an unfair EU is harder to deal with. “They have trade barriers where you can’t trade, they have tariffs all over the place, they make it impossible,” Trump said. (Bloomberg)

US: Economy to coast, no big boost expected from trade deal. The initial trade deal between Washington and Beijing is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the US economy and will only reduce the downside risk or at best help activity moderately, a Reuters poll showed. While financial markets were optimistic in the run-up to and after the trade agreement, the growth and inflation outlook in the latest poll was little changed from the previous few months. (Reuters)

EU: Will respond in kind to new US tariffs — German ambassador to US . The EU is as strong economically as the US, and will respond to any additional US tariffs with duties of its own on US products, Germany's ambassador to the United States, Emily Haber, said. In Davos, Switzerland, US President Donald Trump on Wed renewed his threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on imports of cars from the EU if the bloc does not agree to a trade deal. Haber told an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that the EU would respond "in the same dimension and the same vein." French Ambassador Philippe Etienne told the same event that the EU was pushing for negotiated settlements of disputes with Washington over aircraft subsidies and digital taxes, warning that escalating tit-for-tat tariffs would hurt both economies. (Reuters)

EU: ECB plans split review to keep inflation goal at core of debate . ECB officials deciding how to review their monetary policy plan a two part approach that separates price-stability targeting from other aims, according to people familiar with the matter. One assessment will focus on the ECB’s performance since the last such exercise in 2003, revisiting its framework, instruments and the inflation measures it tracks, while the other addresses policies such as financial stability, climate and communication, the people said. They declined to be identified because their discussions are confidential. Such a division of labor allows policy makers to keep the core matter of reviving inflation -- to hit their primary mandate of price stability -- distinct from secondary goals such as climate change. (Bloomberg)

UK: Brexit bill clears final parliamentary hurdle ahead of Jan 31 exit . Britain moved a step closer to its Jan 31 exit from the EU, when the legislation required to ratify its deal with Brussels passed its final stage in parliament on Wed. The bill will officially become law when it receives Royal Assent from Queen Elizabeth, something that could happen as soon as Thursday. (Reuters)

China: Try to break its addiction to corporate bank loans. China is strengthening efforts to encourage direct financing of companies in a financial system that’s long been dominated by banks, as the private sector struggles with access to credit. Regulators in recent months relaxed rules for companies seeking listings on China’s stock markets, moving toward a registration-based system that in theory automatically green-lights applicants provided they meet set criteria. While regulators still demand case-by-case reviews for bond sales, a legal amendment to be rolled out March 1 calls for “sharply simplifying” the requirements. The moves are part of a broader initiative to raise the sophistication of the nation’s capital markets. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Exports fall more than forecast in Dec. Japanese exports dropped more than expected in Dec, with the shipments slump dragging on for a 13th month despite recent signs of green shoots in global manufacturing. The value of shipments overseas fell 6.3% from a year earlier, extending the longest stretch of monthly drops since 2016, Ministry of Finance data showed. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia seen on hold as currency rallies. Indonesia’s central bank is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, while keeping an easing bias to support growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. A spike in risk appetite following last week’s US.-China trade deal has driven inflows into emerging markets, improving the outlook after last year’s turmoil. The central bank reduced rates four times last year, and a rally in the currency since the beginning of January enables policy makers to stick to a gradual easing cycle. (Bloomberg)

Markets

LBS Bina (Outperform, TP: RM0.86): Disposes of stake in Chinese firm for RM86m. LBS Bina Group has disposed its 9.7% equity stake in China-based Zhuhai Holdings Investment Group Ltd for HKD164.5m (RM86.05m). The disposal provides an opportunity to realise its non-core capital investment to better re-allocate its capital resources. (The Edge) Comments: The equity stake came about following the disposal of its golf course land back in 2014, one which had seen shareholders of LBS subsequently receiving special dividends. We leave earnings estimates unchanged despite the expected RM2.2m disposal loss, with interest savings from redeployment of these proceeds for debt repayment and working capital purposes mitigating the effects. We continue to like the Group's prospects for its entrenched position in the affordable housing segment and affirm our Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM0.86.

Rimbunan Sawit: Sells Sarawak plantation land to WTK for RM85m cash. Rimbunan Sawit is selling plantation land measuring 4,698.2 hectares to WTK Holdings for RM85m cash. Rimbunan Sawit is expecting to make a gain of RM900,000 from the disposal. The cash proceeds from the proposed disposal is to bring down short term bank borrowings and to strengthen the group’s cash flow position (The Edge)

Leader Steel: Buys land in Klang for business expansion. Leader Steel Holdings is acquiring a piece of freehold land in Klang for RM30.67m to expand its manufacturing cum warehouse facility. The 3.48m sqft land, currently owned by Kapar Holding SB, is situated at the proximity of the group’s present plant and office in Kapar. This could assist in its business expansion plan to other regions in Peninsular Malaysia and export market. (The Edge)

TSR Capital: Sells unutilised land in Mutiara Damansara for RM48m. TSR Capital is selling its freehold land in Mutiara Damansara, Petaling Jaya measuring 5,078 sqm for RM48.1m. The disposal is expected to result in a loss of RM4.03m. This is the second disposal of property by the group since Aug 2019, and forms part of its assets rationalization plan to monetize its investments in property assets. (The Edge)

CMMT: Banks on new anchor tenants to reinvigorate Klang Valley Malls. CapitaLand Malaysia Mall Trust (CMMT) is on the hunt for new anchor tenants to inject life into its suburban Klang Valley malls and drive earnings in 2020. These efforts are being done to help boost the occupancy rates of the two malls - 3 Damansara at 92.8% and The Mines at 90.5% as at Dec 31, 2019. (The Edge)

Kim Teck Cheong: Gets exclusive right to use Gardenia trademark in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia. Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated has obtained the exclusive right to use the Gardenia trademark in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia, after inking 2 separate licence agreements with the registered trademark holders. Both agreements are effective for an initial 10-year period. (The Edge)

Automotive (Neutral): MAA expects flattish TIV in 2020. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) has projected the total industry volume (TIV) for 2020 to increase marginally by 0.5% to 607,000 units from 604,287 units in 2019. In 2019, TIV went up only 1% or 5,689 units compared with 2018, but this was the first time it surpassed the 600,000 units mark after three years of TIV hovering below 600,000 units. (SunBiz)

Market Update

US markets ended the day largely unchanged despite strong earnings report from IBM that lifted the overall technology sector. The company also issued 2020 earnings guidance which beat estimates. Concerns over the spread of the deadly coronavirus kept a lid on sentiment however. The Dow slipped 0.03% while the S&P gained 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.1% higher meanwhile. European markets were mostly lower as investors eased off taking on more risk in light of the health-related issues in China, though the latter’s plans to contain the deadly virus calmed concerns over a possible pandemic. On economic-related developments, President Trump said the European Union has no choice but to agree to a new trade deal, this coming about after he met with the European Commission President. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3% despite the ZEW economic survey showing its strongest numbers since July 2015. Elsewhere, UK’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.5% and 0.6%. Asian markets inched higher even as global sentiment is taking a knock from the spread of the deadly coronavirus. While still early days, concerns are rising that consumer sentiment and spending may take a hit from curtailed tourism- and transport-related activity in China, and impact to economic growth more severe considering that the epicentre is there this time round. The Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.3% and 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.7% meanwhile.

Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated has obtained the exclusive right to use the Gardenia trademark in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia, after inking two separate licence agreements with the registered trademark holders. Rimbunan Sawit is selling plantation land measuring 4,698.2 hectares to WTK Holdings for RM85m cash.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Jan 2020

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Technical Buy - MCT (5182)

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Wed, 22 Jan 2020, 9:38 AM


  • Target Price: RM0.365, RM0.385
  • Last closing price: RM0.330
  • Potential return: 10.6%, 16.6%
  • Support: RM0.315
  • Stop Loss: RM0.300

Possibility of breaking out. MCT is attempting for a breakout from its sideways channel. Improving RSI and MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in near term. Should resistance level of RM0.365 be broken, it may continue to lift price higher to subsequent resistance level of RM0.385.

However, failure to hold on to support level of RM0.315 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Jan 2020

Labels: MCT
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Technical Buy - PHARMA (7081)

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Wed, 22 Jan 2020, 9:37 AM


  • Target Price: RM2.25, RM2.32
  • Last closing price: RM2.09
  • Potential return: 7.6%, 11.0%
  • Support: RM2.02
  • Stop Loss: RM1.99

Possible for bottom fishing. PHARMA is staging a potential recovery from its consolidation phase. Improving RSI and MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in near term. Should resistance level of RM2.16 be broken, it may continue to lift price higher to subsequent resistance levels of RM2.25 and RM2.32.

However, failure to hold on to support level of RM2.02 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Jan 2020

Labels: PHARMA
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Technical Buy: KSL (5038)

Author: PublicInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 21 Jan 2020, 10:14 AM


  • Target Price: RM0.835, RM0.870
  • Last closing price: RM0.780
  • Potential return: 7.0%, 11.5%
  • Support: RM0.760
  • Stop Loss: RM0.745

Possible for bottom fishing. KSL is staging a potential recovery from its consolidation phase. Improving RSI and MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in the near term. Should resistance level of RM0.800 be broken, it may continue to lift price higher to subsequent resistance levels of RM0.835 and RM0.870.

However, failure to hold on to support level of RM0.760 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 21 Jan 2020

Labels: KSL
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