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PublicInvest Research

Author: PublicInvest   |   Latest post: Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 9:35 AM

 

HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD - Stable Numbers Ahead

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Stripping-off all exceptional items amounting to RM40.1m, Hibiscus’ 1QFY20 core net profit was lower at RM56.3m (-45.9% YoY), in tandem with lower revenue by 55.7% YoY to RM159.3m. The results were below our and consensus expectations, accounting for only 18.3% and 17.9% of full year estimates. The uninspiring performance was mainly attributed to i) lower uptime achieved due to maintenance exercises, ii) lower offtakes and oil sold from the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, and iii) lower average realised oil price during the quarter. While we think the Group’s earnings will normalize in the remaining quarters with an estimated 8-9 scheduled offtakes at oil prices around ~USD65/bbl on average, we revise our FY20-22 earnings forecast lower by an average 21% due to some adjustment made on the oil price assumptions. We see the Group posting stable earnings, given its ongoing initiatives to constantly increase and/or maintaining production. We maintain our Outperform rating but with a revised fully-diluted TP of RM1.55 from RM1.73 previously.

  • Lower offtakes from Anasuria field. Average uptime at the Anasuria field dropped to 77% from 88% in 1QFY19, resulting from the planned shutdown of the FPSO for maintenance activities. This has resulted in higher OPEX/bbl of USD26.04 versus USD15.93/bbl in 1QFY19. Overall, the field reported revenue of RM69.3m with EBITDA at RM35.1m. There was one offtake done in the quarter as compared to two in 1QFY19 that was brought forward from the 4QFY18 schedule. 272,345 bbls of crude oil were sold this quarter at a lower average realized oil price of USD58.41/bbl as opposed to USD73.88/bbl in 1QFY19.
  • North Sabah – likewise, but expected to pick-up. The North Sabah asset recorded an EBITDA of RM46.5m on the back of RM88.9m revenue. The uptime achieved was 85% versus 93% in 1QFY19 with only one offtake done during the quarter. It sold 334,613 bbls of oil at an average realised price of USD63.63/bbl as compared to 1QFY19 of 595,286 bbls via 2 offtakes at higher price of USD78.55/bbl. OPEX amounted to USD16.72/bbl (USD11.54/bbl in 1QFY19) which includes amounts incurred for planned maintenance activities performed. We expect the performance of this field to pick-up as we expect it to deliver another 5 offtakes in the remaining quarters.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Nov 2019

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