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PublicInvest Research

Author: PublicInvest   |   Latest post: Fri, 6 Dec 2019, 9:18 AM

 

PublicInvest Research Headlines - 28 May 2019

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Economy

Global: Extra US-China tariffs seen costing world USD600bn in 2021. The US-China trade war has entered a dangerous new phase. Tariffs are up and there’s the threat of more to come. A quick fix is still possible, with Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping set to meet at the G-20 summit next month. But at this point, it looks more likely that the trade war will be long, messy, and expensive. Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik have mapped out the main scenarios. Their headline conclusion: If tariffs expand to cover all USChina trade, and markets slump in response, global GDP will take a USD600bn hit in 2021, the year of peak impact. Two years out, Bloomberg Economics’ modelling suggests that output in China and US would be lower by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively, relative to a no-tradewar scenario. Global output would also come down a notch. (Bloomberg)

US, China: US ‘not ready’ to make a trade deal with China, Trump says. The US isn’t ready to make a trade deal with China, President Donald Trump said. “I think they probably wish they made the deal that they had on the table before they tried to renegotiate it,” Trump said Monday. “They would like to make a deal. We’re not ready to make a deal.” Trump said American tariffs on Chinese goods “could go up very, very substantially, very easily.” His comments came after trade talks between the two countries stalled earlier this month. Each side has since blamed the other, and Trump has threatened billions more in tariffs. (Bloomberg)

EU: Italy risks USD4bn penalty for failing to curb debt. The European Commission is considering proposing a disciplinary procedure for Italy next week over its failure to rein in debt, which could pave the way for a EUR3.5bn (USD4bn) penalty, according to an official familiar with the matter. The step could come as part of the European Union’s regular budget monitoring process, most likely on June 5, and would mark an escalation of Rome’s budget tussle with Brussels that roiled markets at the end of 2018. (Bloomberg)

EU: Draws red line for Trump on cars, calling quotas a no-go. The European Union vowed to reject any US push to curb imports of EU cars and auto parts, highlighting the risk of greater transatlantic trade tensions. EU trade chiefs on Monday dismissed an idea floated by President Donald Trump earlier this month of fixing quotas on European automotive exports to the US. He claimed such shipments pose a threat to national security, a view repudiated by Europe. (Bloomberg)

US, Japan: President Trump eyes Aug for a US-Japan deal on trade. US President Donald Trump said he may announce something on a US-Japan trade agreement in Aug, hinting he will push for results well in advance of the six-month deadline he laid out earlier this month. A senior official in Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration said the two leaders had reached no such agreement on timing during their summit in Tokyo Monday, which followed Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on the approximately USD50bn worth of cars and auto parts Japan exported to the US annually. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Leading index lowest in nearly 3 years. Japan's leading index reached its lowest level in almost three years in March, final data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday. The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, declined to a revised 95.9 in March from 97.1 in Feb. This was the lowest reading since April 2016. The reading was also below the preliminary estimate of 96.3. (RTT)

Markets

IHH (Outperform, TP: RM6.96): CEO to step down, Columbia Asia’s boss set to take over. IHH says Dr Tan See Leng will cease to be its MD and CEO at the end of his contract on Dec 31 this year. IHH also named Columbia Asia Group CEO Dr Kelvin Loh Chi-Keon as its CEO-designate. Loh also has been appointed IHH executive director effective July 1. (NST)

DiGi (Neutral, TP: RM4.72): In MoU with ZTE to explore 5G technology in Malaysia. Digi has signed a MoU with ZTE (M) Corp SB to further explore the potential of 5G technology in Malaysia. Digi said the partnership will explore several aspects of required collaboration to make 5G technology a reality in Malaysia. These aspects include 5G live trials of end-to-end network functions and features, and pilot trials of 5G use cases for enhanced mobile broadband, fixed wireless access, ultrareliable low-latency communication and massive machine type communications. "The trials will be conducted using low, mid and high 5G spectrum bands," it said. (The Edge)

KNM: Bags works totaling RM97.72m. KNM Group has secured three contracts worth approximately RM97.72m combined. The first contract was a purchase order from TPSK Consortium to supply shop assembled large columns for Package A1 of a Petrochemical Complex in South of Vietnam, worth USD12.7m (c.RM53.44m). The second contract is for the supply of reactor effluent air condensers to Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co Ltd at the Petronas RAPID Project in Pengerang, Johor, for USD4.47m (c.RM18.68m). It was also awarded a technical goods and works purchase contract for the engineering, procurement, manufacturing, inspection, testing and delivery of Oleflex reactors for the new European propane dehydrogenation (PDH) project at the Borealis production site in Belgium. (The Edge)

MGB: To develop 674 units of 2-storey terrace houses in Dengkil. MGB said it has been awarded a RM134.7m contract to develop a total of 674 units of double-storey terrace houses in Dengkil, Selangor. The contract was awarded by Blee & W Architects SB on behalf of Seloka Sinaran SB. The contract includes developing 674 units of double storey houses, Tenaga Nasional substations, and other facilities including a security guard house, a community center with prayer area, and a management office. (The Edge)

Scomi: Makes cash call to recapitalise. Scomi Group (SGB) is making a cash call to raise RM214m, an amount that is nearly three times more than its current market cap of RM72m, to pare down debts. SGB has proposed a wide-ranging corporate exercise, which also includes a rights issue that will be sweetened by free warrants, share consolidation, liabilities settlement and shares capital reduction. The group has fixed the price for its rights issue at 18 sen per share. (The Edge)

Press Metal: Q1 net profit drops 23.50% to RM115.12m. Press Metal’s 1QFY19 net profit decreased 23.50% YoY to RM115.12m, from RM150.48m. Press Metal said the lower earnings was due to the weakening of metal price and prolonged high raw material prices. Group CEO Tan Sri Paul Koon said the results was commendable in the current market environment given some players were in negative territory due to escalating costs and lower metal prices. “The silver lining is that this will discourage new investments or restarts coming on-stream hence constraining any supply growth,” he said. (NST)

Market Update

The FBM KLCI might open higher after European stocks advanced on Monday as investors were broadly relieved by initial results from parliamentary elections that suggested pro-EU parties had held their ground. While early results from the weekend’s European Parliament elections indicated some gains for far-right and nationalist parties, these were a far cry from the surge some had feared. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was up 0.2%, Germany’s Xetra Dax 30 rose 0.5% and in France the CAC 40 climbed 0.4%, while Italy’s FTSE Mib was down less than 0.1% and Spain’s Ibex 35 advanced 0.5%. Wall Street was shut for Memorial Day public holiday.

Back home, the FBM KLCI index gained 3.03 points or 0.19% to 1,601.35 points on Monday. Trading volume decreased to 1.60bn worth RM1.29bn. Market breadth was negative with 330 gainers as compared to 481 losers. Trading in the region was mixed as investors waited for any new developments in the trade war between the US and China. Japan’s Topix gained 0.4%. China’s CSI 300, an index of major shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, was up 1.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.2%.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 28 May 2019

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Labels: IHH, DIGI, KNM, MGB, SCOMI, PMETAL

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