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Sslee blog

Author: Sslee   |   Latest post: Fri, 15 Feb 2019, 07:58 PM

 

My response to Mr. Phillip Fisher

Author:   |    Publish date:


Dear Mr. Phillip Fisher,

I am surprise, honor and at the same time humble by your interest on me and you had looked into my comment and found out that INSAS is my biggest and favorite stock. Like you I attend INSAS AGM year 2017 and 2018, getting to know the board and even have a personal meeting with the newly appointed CEO Dato’ Wong. So please allow me to clarify some of your misperception about INSAS

 

The facts on INSAS are as follow:

INSAS is a founding shareholder of Inari 11 years ago and its original 51% equity interest in Inari has been diluted over the years primarily due to its IPO in 2011, the subsequent capital raising exercises carried out by Inari to raise funds to expand and grow its businesses and part disposal of the Inari shares by INSAS. INSAS as an investment holding company had on a prudent basis disposed of some of the Inari shares to realise capital profit. Notwithstanding the disposal of some of the Inari shares, the value of the Group’s remaining shareholding in Inari is still significant.

 

At 30th June 2018 INSAS NTA RM 2.49 and refer page 107: ASSOCIATE COMPANIES (Inari, Ho Hup, Melium, Winfields and other) book value RM 357,628,000 and market value of Associate companies quoted in Malaysia alone is RM 1,376,569,000. Inari closing at 30th June 2018 is RM 2.28. Even with today Inari closing price of RM 1.27 the market value is still way above the book value.

 

  1. Values:
  1. INSAS hold 19.1% or about 600 million of Inari share hence Inari alone contribute value of about 0.91 X (Inari share price) per INSAS share.
  2. CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS COMPRISE OF:
    Cash and bank balances RM 103,763,000
    Deposits with licensed banks and financial
    Institutions RM 572,703,000
    Total RM 676,466,000. Contribute value of about RM 1.02 per INSAS share.
  3. Receivable RM 376,481,999 mostly under secured loan given to client by INSAS credit & Leasing (“ICL”) ICL, an interest earning receivable. Contribute value of about RM 0.57 per INSAS share.
  4. FINANCIAL ASSETS AT FAIR VALUE THROUGH PROFIT OR LOSS (RM)
    Quoted securities, at market value
    - in Malaysia 57,744,000
    - outside Malaysia 178,818,000
    Total 236,562,000. Contribute value of about RM 0.36 per INSAS share.
  5. Non-current assets (Excluded associate book value of RM 357,628,000) are RM 437,426,000. Contribute value of about RM 0.66 per INSAS share.
  6. Other current assets (Exclude: B, C and D) RM 136,637,000. Contribute value of about RM 0.21per INSAS share.
  7. Total liabilities (Include Preference shares) RM 565,234,000. Contribute value of about negative RM 0.85 per INSAS share.
  8. INSAS other subsidiaries exclude Inari RM Z million. Contribution value of about RM Z/663 per INSAS share.

Grand total value of INSAS share is A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H = (0.91Inari+1.02 +0.57+0.36+0.66+0.21-0.85+ Z/663 )=(0.91Inari+1.97+Z/663). Of which A, B. C and D are all liquid assets. So just A alone of 0.91 Inari is good enough reason for me to buy INSAS instead of Inari at the current price.

 

  1. Profit visibility (Year 2018 annual report)
  1. Inari is associate company of INSAS hence there is no Q to Q fair value loss/gain only equity accounting of Profit/Loss of Inari (19.1%). Inari report FY 2018 profit of 233.6 million and INSAS equity account profit of 44.48million and received dividend cash inflow of 40.15 million. Note: Every one cents dividend received from Inari is about 6 million cash inflow to INSAS.
  2. Similarly Ho Hup is 12.2% associate company of INSAS. FY 2018 Ho Hup Profit 31.8 million and INSAS equity account profit of RM 3.87 million.
  3. The total interest income earned by ICL from the money lending business for FY2018 is RM 23.0 million.
  4. M & A securities still profitable in broking services and advisor services for new IPO.
  5. Property investment mainly vacant land hold for development and properties hold for own used or for rental income still profitable.
  6. Car rental (Mostly corporate long lease) make small profit of RM 242,000 but retail business share of Melium Groups losses of RM 3.1 million.
  7. Investment holding and trading: As of 30 June 2018, the Group’s investments in listed equities are primarily in the properties, technology, consumer products and financial services sectors in both local and overseas stock exchanges, and the key equity investments include, amongst others, IGB REITS, Ho Hup Construction Company Berhad, Omesti Berhad, SYF Resources Berhad and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited. Dividend received RM 9,383,000.These Investment Holdings will need to make Q to Q fair value gain or loss.

 

Beware I was warned that people said no body point the gun to your head to buy a share and you need to judge by yourself. However, some very experience blogger can use a lot of convincing/manipulated points/story to lure you to buy into their shares or vice versa. In i3 the most famous manipulator is PLP king “You-Know-Who” the fake accountant hoodwinked many people with JAKS vision 2020 Vietnam IPP game changer and promoted JAKS day and night and encourage people sailing/all in with margin finance and PLP Mr. Koon to push the JAKS price up many rounds to as high as RM 1.80 and he profited from it again and again. The rest is history.

 

With respect and no offend, but suddenly when someone comes from nowhere and starts talking about his perfect record of 4 out of 4 and his perfect business sense and timing on QL like professor. I am of skeptical view that something so seeming too good to be true must have something wrong into it hence my advice do not chase high as I have the same view with Ricky Yeo that QL is overvalue. Let me read through the financial report of QL this week end and I will make my case why QL is over value. Till then

 

Thank you

P/S:

Link to INSAS 56th AGM minutes:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/184263.jsp

http://www.insas.net/pdf/img-20181226.pdf

http://www.insas.net/pdf/img-20181226-2.pdf

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Labels: INSAS

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Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
INSAS 0.87 +0.005 (0.58%) 365,700 

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(S = Qr) Philip Sorry I meant buy at any price.
04/01/2019 11:48
rajachulan buffett no fate with tech stock... he was right.. and he should stay away from tech stock....just keep drinking coca cola
-----------------------------------------------------
stockmanmy > Jan 4, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse


like that wallen the bufalo.....now is Apple may turn out to be a mistake...then how?
04/01/2019 12:01
Alex™ hindsight ma, easy to comment how he hoot certain stock and huat.

Those underperformed stock hide somewhere lo.

Survivorship bias also. Only those who survive got the chance to give the lecture. Those who died using the same method hooting other stocks aren't here anymore to give comments.
04/01/2019 12:04
stockraider People say growth investing is value investing, in a way u can say so loh..!!...but why u want to confuse leh ??

Raider prefer;

Growth is growth investing loh....!!

Value is value investing loh...!!

For Growth investment usually u must be willing to pay a premium, and hopefully your assessment of growth is what is expected loh...!!

For value investment investing u can invest based on a combination such break up value of the co with big nta over share price....high cash holding....low pe......control of valuable strategic resources etc.
General value investing can see n calculate the obvious margin of safety loh....!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 4, 2019 11:48 AM | Report Abuse

Obviously because your friends at upper management who buy shares have investment bias. They only buy company share because they thing it is safe. I work there so hot safety of margin.

You do not buy company shares because you work there. You buy shares because you realize your company is far better than the other competitors out there.

Like you say there are many roads to rome. I totally agree! But saying growth investing is not value investing is silly. If I can make 10x profit on my TOPGLOV, QL and I believe soon to be yinson and public bank in 10 years, I don't mind paying premium price for premium companies.

For sslee, I don't mind that he invest in this INSAS ( it is an Arbitrage play, because when the share price equals to asset price of inari, what other value is there in the business? I wouldn't buy INSAS other businesses if they gave it to me for free), but he has to understand that the only amount he can earn is the difference in intrinsic value. Nothing more.

Small peanuts.

It's like shorting a stock ( which no one in bursa can remember thing), if you short hundred percent, the most you can earn is double your money.

If you invest in the growth of a wonderful company the benefits is so much more.

It's just my 25¢. I've invested your way before stockraider, I've trade before using qqq way, and when I was young and stupid I probably wrote more thesis and reports than choivo.

This is the only way that worked in the long term. I sent my daughter to USA for studies thanks to QL. I hold 2m ql shares 2009 until today and didn't sell, and it's not because of but we any price.

I participated in ql growth. I know why it's growing. I can see where it will grow into in the future. And most importantly I know what the competition is doing.

For INSAS, I can't see anything 5-10 years ahead.
04/01/2019 12:10
probability samo can talk and talk...without a single description with numbers on the valuation and the mechanism that justifies the price movement.......no end one...

both Jon and long number good at promoting something out of thin air...


Posted by Alex™ > Jan 4, 2019 12:04 PM | Report Abuse

hindsight ma, easy to comment how he hoot certain stock and huat.

Those underperformed stock hide somewhere lo.

Survivorship bias also. Only those who survive got the chance to give the lecture. Those who died using the same method hooting other stocks aren't here anymore to give comments.
04/01/2019 12:10
stockmanmy by probability > Jan 4, 2019 12:10 PM | Report Abuse

samo can talk and talk...without a single description with numbers on the valuation and the mechanism that justifies the price movement.......no end one...

both Jon and long number good at promoting something out of thin air...
===============

what u don't understand is......long number is right, u know?
04/01/2019 12:17
Alex™ amend title....'response'
04/01/2019 12:21
probability for e.g, say QL earnings growth CAGR...was about 13% last 10 years...with almost 100% reinvestment rate (no dividends)...meaning its business has ROIC not exceeding 13%..

if we assume even with its new and future business venture it will yield the same ROIC of 13% max ( due to business nature)...

it will take 6 years for its current earnings to double...

meaning, at current PE of 50 it takes 6 years for the PE to become 25...and another 6 years to become 10...with the price remaining still

its like the investors has to wait almost 15 years without any dividends...and achieve a dividend yield of 5% with 50% reinvestment rate after that for perpetual growth..

if the above could be the real scenario, i cant find QL as an interesting investment for sure
04/01/2019 12:38
qqq3 probability...

if u run a company with PE 50.....every dollar earned is worth $ 50 in market cap increase......

as a shareholder can get rich fast.....
04/01/2019 12:42
stockraider Theory loh...!!

How u think 13% growth can maintained leh ??

Now Ql PE 60x woh....!!

U think 13% pa sustained how long leh ???

People say when co do budget 1 yr forecast also not easy loh...!!

Lim Guan Eng forecast crude oil usd 72...now less than 3mths already usd 52 loh...!!

Those claim can achieve certain growth 10 to 20% all based on gut feeling mah....!!

Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

for e.g, say QL earnings growth CAGR...was about 13% last 10 years...with almost 100% reinvestment rate (no dividends)...meaning its business has ROIC not exceeding 13%..

if we assume even with its new and future business venture it will yield the same ROIC of 13% max ( due to business nature)...

it will take 6 years for its current earnings to double...

meaning, at current PE of 50 it takes 6 years for the PE to become 25...and another 6 years to become 10...with the price remaining still

its like the investors has to wait almost 15 years without any dividends...and achieve a dividend yield of 5% with 50% reinvestment rate after that for perpetual growth..

if the above could be the real scenario, i cant find QL as an interesting investment for sure
04/01/2019 12:44
probability exactly...thats why we want the long number guy convince us otherwise with some short and precise numbers lor...

he keep writing long long....we feel like shorting lor!


Posted by stockraider > Jan 4, 2019 12:44 PM | Report Abuse

Theory loh...!!

How u think 13% growth can maintained leh ??

Now Ql PE 60x woh....!!

U think 13% pa sustained how long leh ???

People say when co do budget 1 yr forecast also not easy loh...!!

Lim Guan Eng forecast crude oil usd 72...now less than 3mths already usd 52 loh...!!

Those claim can achieve certain growth 10 to 20% all based on gut feeling mah....!!
04/01/2019 12:47
Choivo Capital I have a feeling,

If QL goes to 10. He will call it his greatest investment.

If it goes to 3, he will admit mistake.

Which is foolish, as the outcome bears but little bearing on the thought process.

Like i said, Mr Long Number philosophy is, know the business extremely well, and buy a great business, at ANY price.

As long as don't use margin, won't die lah. And if he buys consistently at the peaks and troughs of a wonderful company for 20 years, probably will have a decent outcome. If the company turns out to actually be wonderful and with a humongous moat that is constantly expanded and maintained through innovation or network effects.

For me, in QL, beyond a good management, economies of scale, and a very slight branding edge, i don't see too much moat.

I'd rather eat TSMC, Apple or Berkshire, all of which are at least 3 times cheaper valuations wise, and are far superior businesses.

Or even PetronM, that is 10 times cheaper valuation wise, and in my opinion, an equally superior if not more superior business.
04/01/2019 12:49
stockraider If u buy insas today for rm 0.65...with equity value of rm 2.54 per share is equivalent to buying a growth stock share of rm 0.65 with a compounded growth rate of 20% pa for the next 7 yrs loh...!!
04/01/2019 12:49
stockraider But in the case of insas compare to growth stock, just in case the growth rate falter from 20% pa to negative 5% pa within 1 yr...in the case of insas u still get equity value of rm 2.54 per share loh..!!

This is the wonder of value investment like insas loh...!!
A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush loh...!!
04/01/2019 12:55
stockraider Raider ask loh....why u want to buy wonderful co at high uncertain price n hold for 20 yrs when u can buy insas for rm 0.65 which already has rm 2.54 equity value, which is an equivalent to compound growth rate of 20% pa for next 7 yrs loh...!!

Why u r not willing to hold insas for 3 to 7 yrs leh ??
04/01/2019 13:02
qqq3 Petron vs QL.....

3 months money, 12 months money.....which has higher odds of nasty surprises.......Petron.

5 years money, 10 years money.......if things work out, which has better future...........QL

QED....for long number guy...easy decision......
04/01/2019 13:04
probability wei...u all take the opportunity to promote own stocks kah?

Jon on his petronm and raider on his insas..

ok ok

........

there is one stock in bursa which can actually deserve a PE of 60....

why? coz its ROIC is almost unlimited...it requires a super small investment to generate enormous profit....it has all to do with the its super skilled management.. unlike processing plant (capex) as it is for QL...

plant requires enormous amount of capital and takes enormous amount of time to install, commission, commercially produce and market..
on top of the risk failing demand..


but this business dont have headache at all..
if the demand fails...it just focus on its resources elsewhere...
it cost nothing to them


and it can keep repeating it...there are enormous opportunities to replicate its business model...its business strategy...

and thats none other than...

: MYEG

good luck...
04/01/2019 13:06
stockraider raider just give sslee a helping hand lah...raider has no insas share mah....!!

Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 01:06 PM | Report Abuse

wei...u all take the opportunity to promote own stocks kah?

Jon on his petronm and raider on his insas..

ok ok

........

there is one stock in bursa which can actually deserve a PE of 60....

why? coz its ROIC is almost unlimited...it requires a super small investment to generate enormous profit....it has all to do with the its super skilled management.. unlike processing plant (capex) as it is for QL...

plant requires enormous amount of capital and takes enormous amount of time to install, commission, commercially produce and market..
on top of the risk failing demand..


but this business dont have headache at all..
if the demand fails...it just focus on its resources elsewhere...
it cost nothing to them


and it can keep repeating it...there are enormous opportunities to replicate its business model...its business strategy...

and thats none other than...

: MYEG

good luck...
04/01/2019 13:13
qqq3 Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 01:06 PM | Report Abuse


: MYEG

good luck.
=====================..

only if ahjib kor returns....
04/01/2019 13:14
probability bangla PM = 5 ahjib gor

they had even killed their people during election to remain in power ...
04/01/2019 13:17
Choivo Capital Id rather no one buys to be honest.

Here's to a large stock-holding loss next Q!

====
Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 01:06 PM | Report Abuse

wei...u all take the opportunity to promote own stocks kah?

Jon on his petronm and raider on his insas..

ok ok
04/01/2019 13:19
3iii >>>>
10154899906070843

Like you say there are many roads to rome. I totally agree! But saying growth investing is not value investing is silly.




This is the only way that worked in the long term. I sent my daughter to USA for studies thanks to QL. I hold 2m ql shares 2009 until today and didn't sell, and it's not because of but we any price.

I participated in ql growth. I know why it's growing. I can see where it will grow into in the future. And most importantly I know what the competition is doing.

For INSAS, I can't see anything 5-10 years ahead.
04/01/2019 11:48<<<<<<


Lovely to hear of your successful investing.
04/01/2019 13:37
stockraider U don see insas bcos u don understand value investment based on ben graham approach mah...!!

Of course don understand ....cannot see mah...!!

This is natural loh....!!

>>>>
10154899906070843

Like you say there are many roads to rome. I totally agree! But saying growth investing is not value investing is silly.

This is the only way that worked in the long term. I sent my daughter to USA for studies thanks to QL. I hold 2m ql shares 2009 until today and didn't sell, and it's not because of but we any price.

I participated in ql growth. I know why it's growing. I can see where it will grow into in the future. And most importantly I know what the competition is doing.

For INSAS, I can't see anything 5-10 years ahead.
04/01/2019 13:40
rajachulan http://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/speculation/Jesse_Livermore-How_To_Trade_In_Stocks_(1940_original)-EN.pdf
04/01/2019 13:45
rajachulan https://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Edwin_LeFevre_Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator.pdf
04/01/2019 13:45
rajachulan I read cold eye, i read buffetology, i read peter lynch, i read intelligent investor... and it doesnt stop me from reading others...

hope you do the same...
enjoy reading...
04/01/2019 13:46
qqq3 Jesse Livermore for me.....
04/01/2019 13:50
Alex™ Nobody read the bogle's folly?
04/01/2019 13:52
probability Index fund...

I view U.S as company A and Malaysia as company B..and China as company C

when company A happen to be having the century or decade of its time.....of course the Index fund there will thrive...

can we expect the same with company B?
I dont think so...

perhaps company C can in the near future...


Posted by Alex™ > Jan 4, 2019 01:52 PM | Report Abuse

Nobody read the bogle's folly?
04/01/2019 14:05
Alex™ unfortunately, we only know the answer for the company B outcome in another 50 years time. History is a good guide. All in klci 1997, now huat like pig, haha
04/01/2019 16:00
Alex™ 1997-1998 lowest klci is 200+ points?
04/01/2019 16:00
stockraider correctloh in 1997 raider very handsome mah....!!

Posted by Alex™ > Jan 4, 2019 04:00 PM | Report Abuse

unfortunately, we only know the answer for the company B outcome in another 50 years time. History is a good guide. All in klci 1997, now huat like pig, haha


Alex™
11413 posts
Posted by Alex™ > Jan 4, 2019 04:00 PM | Report Abuse

1997-1998 lowest klci is 200+ points?
04/01/2019 16:28
Alex™ 1997 i still play computer game
04/01/2019 16:29
stockraider Wow...SSlee u put so much effort to refute philip ??

But looking at the details QL maybe overrated, i think fairer indication of QL valuation should be in the region of rm 4.50 loh....!!
This co do not really pays div and damn stingy in sharing with shareholders loh...! Its Family Mart but certainty not worth Rm 2 billion, the most maybe around Rm 600m factoring growth loh...!!
Overall QL should command PE around 23x...of course should not exceed Nestle and Dutch Lady mah...!!

For Inari it is a focus business...more volatile....the Pe should be around 12x to 16x....current valuation should be in line loh..!!
Inari pays good regular dividend thus should deserve slightly more premium valuation... raider think Px 13.5 is fair thus current share price is slightly undervalue loh...!!

Insas is a huge conglomerate with equity value of Rm 2.54 per share but it trade at a share price of Rm 0.655 a huge undervaluation, the reason could be due to insas management, do not pays reasonable div for sharing with shareholders for many many years.
But lately i see positive development....insas is willing to share its fruits too...although not much at 2 sen a share div...it is a good start loh..!!
Previously if u get rm 0.5 sen div....from insas u r damn lucky most of the time u get none loh even the co make alot of monies loh..!!
For that insas share is punished with a huge valuation discount loh..!!
If u hold insas u get very a big exposure to inari loh...!!
Even that...if u write off the whole inari investment...u still get equity value per share something like rm 1.50 a share this show the strength of insas loh....!!
Insas is a stock with huge margin of safety with improving corporate governance loh...!!
I concur it is a good value investment.!!
04/01/2019 19:24
Alex™ If insas want huat, ask the boss to slcce the cake. Learn secret recipe, cake slice earns more than selling the whole cake. Or what they say buy wholesale, sell retail.
04/01/2019 19:27
stockraider Yes to only way is to buy buy buy & buy insas.......then it is hot with fundamental loh....!!

Posted by Alex™ > Jan 4, 2019 07:27 PM | Report Abuse

If insas want huat, ask the boss to slcce the cake. Learn secret recipe, cake slice earns more than selling the whole cake. Or what they say buy wholesale, sell retail.
04/01/2019 19:38
stockraider U ask Leno loh...!!

Posted by lazycat > Jan 4, 2019 07:40 PM | Report Abuse

mr loh , u still hold insas?
04/01/2019 19:46
stockraider His cost less than rm 0.40 & manage to lari kuat kuat at above Rm 1.00 loh....!!

Today insas fundamental & valuation lagi strong mah...!!

Posted by i3lurker > Jan 4, 2019 07:55 PM | Report Abuse

leno non-stop promote Insas from more than 10 years ago already?
04/01/2019 19:58
stockraider I heard he loss in a big judi & have to runaway from ahlong...now he is sharing a room with Jho loh....!!
04/01/2019 20:00
lazycat now everyone only go investloh!
04/01/2019 20:00
stockraider It is a right business approach loh....!!

Alot of business sense mah....!!

Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 08:02 PM | Report Abuse

i am pretty sure sslee wont end up like leno...

but his recent aggressive tone on Insas promotion is a little bothering...
04/01/2019 20:04
stockraider Or is it the new beginning leh ??

Posted by i3lurker > Jan 4, 2019 08:04 PM | Report Abuse

its called the end game stage

Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 08:02 PM | Report Abuse
i am pretty sure sslee wont end up like leno...

but his recent aggressive tone on Insas promotion is a little bothering..
04/01/2019 20:05
Alex™ Apu... I miss leno
04/01/2019 20:18
Alex™ Cantik cantik~~~~ I insaf liao~
04/01/2019 20:25
Sslee Dear all,
I am not promoting INSAS in fact I am waiting to collect INSAS at RM 0.5 from i3lurker.
The blog is supposed to be a comment in QL forum in sharing with 10154899906070843 comments dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM as what I see in INSAS. But somehow the comment page keep rejected my comment and hence I was forced to posted it as blog.

Thank you
P/S: You can go to QL forum to read his comment dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM
05/01/2019 00:02
stockraider Dear SSlee,

Raider is disappointed u r not promoting INSAS loh...!!
When raider heard from people that u r promoting insas, raider is very excited and decided to join the insas bandwagon to promote as well loh...!!

FYI raider is not ashamed promoting insas bcos raider know & understand its hugely undervalue....people who buy will be able to make monies loh...!!

Promoting insas is positive social service for the followers in i3 loh...!!

SSlee ur call for Insas to come down to Rm 0.50 for u to buy cheap is just wishful pipe dream thinking loh...!!

Although never say never....there is a remote possibility in this weak market u dream may come true loh...!!
But raider see buying at rm 0.655 is more than sufficient margin of safety to make monies loh...!!
05/01/2019 00:27
ramada Still Insas, value investing huh..
05/01/2019 09:01
Haw Liao even warren buffet not immune to mistakes...how about us

be humble...just cutloss and move on
05/01/2019 10:05
eddy888 Invest INSAS just like what we invest FUND. Enjoy the fruit after several years. Your money, you manage the risk.
05/01/2019 13:46
KLCI Going Heaven Post removed. Why?
05/01/2019 19:07


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