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Author: Sslee   |   Latest post: Sat, 19 Jan 2019, 07:01 AM

 

Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value INSAS Vs QL

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Dear all,

Fundamental Analysis (FA)

Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a stock in an attempt to assess its intrinsic value, by examining related economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors. Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the stock's value, including macroeconomic factors (e.g. economy and industry conditions) and microeconomic factors (e.g. financial conditions and company management). The end goal of fundamental analysis is to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) that an investor can compare with a stock's current market price, thus indicating whether the stock is undervalued or overvalued.

In summary Fundamental Analysis cover:

  1. Quantitative
  • Financial data contain in current and past financial report.
  1. Qualitative
  • Economy condition. (Current and future)
  • Industry condition. (Current and future)
  • Company management. (Current and future)

In short what many people term as Business Sense (BS) is actually the qualitative part of Fundamental Analysis. BS is subset of FA.

Technical Analysis (TA)

Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume and focus on patterns of price movements, trading signals and various other analytical charting tools to evaluate a security's strength or weakness. Thus TA pattern is influence by Greed & Fear (Behavior pattern) and will be most effective if use together with FA Qualitative study of Economic condition and Industry condition that create greed and fear where people will panic buy or panic sell as no one will look at FA quantitative financial data.

Thus TA although unlike FA but have some overlapping with FA Qualitative study of Economic and Industry condition.

Intrinsic Value: The Present value of the investment of all the expected cash flows over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate.

Intrinsic value = (CF/ (1+d)^1) + (CF/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CF/(1+d)^n)

Where:

  • CF = Cash Flow in the Period
  • d = the discount rate
  • n = the period number

This Intrinsic value is actually a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valid only if:

  1. IPP where concession period is 25 year and CF are relative stable and predictable and Initial CAPEX value as zero at end of 25 year.
  2. CAPEX of plant Equipments (Refrigerator) life span 10 year and with projected CF for the life span of 10 year and initial CAPEX as zero end of 10 year.
  3. Car for rental business with life span 5 year with discounted rate (projected resold value at end of 5 year and projected CF for the 5 years)

For intrinsic value of Stock then the more appropriate formula should be:

Intrinsic Value = Present discounted value after year N (Non-current assets + Current assets – Total liabilities) + (DCF of N years)    

So let’s do the intrinsic value of INSAS

INSAS BUSINESS MODEL:

Holding company with active wholly and partial own subsidiaries and associate as below:

  1. Wholly own subsidiary M&A security: Stock broking and dealing in securities and provision of corporate finance and advisory services for IPO.
  2. Wholly own subsidiary Insas Credit & Leasing Sdn Bhd: Credit and leasing and other related financing activities.
  3. Investment holding and trading: Under varies wholly own subsidiaries.
  4. Properties  development, management and investment: Under varies fully and partial own subsidiary
  5. Car rental: Insas Pacific Rent-A-Car (M) and Roset Limousine Services (S) 79.5% subsidiary.
  6. High end retail and F&B: Milium group 43.3 % subsidiary.
  7. Listed Associate companies: Inari (19.1%) and Ho Hup (12.2%)

Since INSAS free cash flow from operation activities is greatly influence by lending activities of ICL and from investment activities is greatly influence from investment holding and trading. Hence the DCF are best derived from each activity using different rate:

  • d = Discount rate
  • i = Bank FD/Bond rate
  • b = Bank borrowing rate
  • a = Land and building appreciation rate
  • g = Dividend or earning growth rate
  • N = End of year N

Intrinsic Value = Present discounted value after year N (Non-current assets + Current assets – Total liabilities) + (DCF of N years)

INSAS = Present discount value after year N (Non-current assets +1,426,146,000 – 565,234,000) +DCF

            =Present discount value (PDV) after year N (795,054,000) + Present discounted value of Cash and Cash equivalent (860,912,000) + (DCF) of N year on assets use to generate the cash flow.

  1. Non-current assets (RM 795,054,000) consist of:
  1. Properties, plant and equipment RM 161,405,000 consist of:
  1. Motor vehicle: RM 127,065,000. Using DCF for 5 year and resold at year 5. Intrinsic value (resold value)/(1+d)^5 + Sum DCF for 5 year. Assume break even. Intrinsic value RM127,065,000
  2. Machinery, renovation, office equipment: RM 4,725,000. Zero value at end of lifespan (N year).
  3. Land and building: RM 29,615,000. Intrinsic value RM 29,615,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N
  1. Investment properties: (Land, building) RM 198,304,000. For property investment, the Group invested in shop offices which generates rental yield. The Group has two (2) blocks of 11 story (54,277 sq ft) signature offices in Mid Valley which was bought 17/18 years ago which is generating rental yield and high capital gain. Intrinsic value RM 198,304,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N plus free cash Flow (Net Rental income) RM 3,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}
  2. Available for sales Investment: (Quoted and unquoted investments/securities) RM 45,022,000. Intrinsic value (realizable investment at year N1)/(1+d)^N1
  3. Held to maturity investment: (Bonds) RM 5,352,000. Intrinsic value at maturity year N2. RM 5,352,000 x (1+i)^N2/(1+d)^N2
  4. Associate company: (Carry amt + Goodwill) RM 357,628,000  consist of:
  1. Inari (19.1%). Carry amt: RM 202,691,000. NP to INSAS (FY 2018): RM 44,482,000. FY (2017): RM 48,604,000. Intrinsic value as (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari at year N)/(1+d)^N plus free cash flow (dividend) RM 30,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}
  2. Ho Hup (12.2%). Carry amt:  RM 42,676,000. NP to INSAS (FY 2018): RM 3,876,000. (FY 2017) RM: 5,804,000. Intrinsic value as (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup at year N)/(1+d)^N  plus free Cash Flow (dividend) RM 1,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}
  3. Melium (43.4). Carry amt:  RM 14,870,000. NP to INSAS (FY 2018): Negative RM 3,065,000 (FY2017): Negative RM 493,000.
  4. Winfields (40%). Carry amt: RM 17,984,000. NP to INSAS (FY 2018): Negative RM 2,434,000. (FY2017): RM14,321,000
  5. Others: carry amt: Negative RM 569,000. NP to INSAS (FY 2018): RM 4,512,000. (FY2017): Negative RM (7,430,000)

Note: Considered Sum (C, D and E) with zero intrinsic value at end of N year and Burn rate for development/ start up cost of free cash flow negative 4,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

Total: Carry Amt: RM 277,652,000. Goodwill: RM 79,976,000. NP to INSAS (FY2018): RM 47,341,000. (FY 2017) RM 60,916,000

  1. Intangible assets (Stock broking dealer’s license): RM 26,047,000. Intrinsic value (proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/(1+d)^N3)  plus net CF RM 8,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N3/(1+d)^N3}
  2. Deferred Tax: RM 2,834,000. Note: Unutilized tax losses RM 71,256,000. and unabsorbed capital allowances are available for offset against future taxable profit

INSAS Present discount value after year N (Non-current assets + FCF).

=RM 127,065,000 + RM 29,615,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + RM 198,304,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + (Net Rental income) RM 3,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} + (realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000)/(1+d)^N1 + (bond RM 5,352,000 x (1+i)^N2/(1+d)^N2 +  19.1% of Market Cap of Inari)/(1+d)^N + (dividend) RM 30,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}  + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup)/(1+d)^N + (dividend) RM 1,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} – Burn rate RM 4,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} +(Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/(1+d)^N3) + DCF RM 8,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N3/(1+d)^N3}

B. Current assets of Net Cash or cash equivalent (RM 860,912,000) assume break down to:

1. INSAS Credit and leasing lending business RM 350,000,000. Intrinsic value RM 350,000,000/(1+d)^10 plus cash flow (interest income 8 %) RM 28,000,000 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

2. Working capital with no interest income: RM 150,000,000. Intrinsic value RM 150,000,000/(1+d)^N

3. Securities holding and trading RM 360,912,000. Intrinsic value (Security at end on year N/(1+d)^10) plus free cash flow (dividend yield 4%) RM 14,436,480 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

= RM 350,000,000 /(1+d)^N + RM 28,000,000 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} + RM 150,000,000/(1+d)^N  + Securities held(original cost 360,912,000)/(1+d)^N + RM 14,436,480 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

Total intrinsic value of INSAS

= RM 127,065,000 + RM 29,615,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + RM 198,304,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + (Net Rental income) RM 3,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} + (realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000)/(1+d)^N1 + (bond RM 5,352,000 x (1+i)^N2/(1+d)^N2 +  (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari)/(1+d)^N + (dividend) RM 30,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}  + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup)/(1+d)^N + (dividend) RM 1,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} – Burn rate RM 3,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} +(Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/(1+d)^N3) + DCF RM 8,000,000 x Sum{(1+g)^N3/(1+d)^N3} + RM 350,000,000 /(1+d)^N + RM 28,000,000 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N} + RM 150,000,000/(1+d)^N  + Securities held(original cost 360,912,000)/(1+d)^N + RM 14,436,480 x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

= RM 127,065,000 + RM 29,615,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + RM 198,304,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N+ (realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000)/(1+d)^N1 + (bond RM 5,352,000 x (1+i)^N2/(1+d)^N2 +  (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari)/(1+d)^N +(12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup)/(1+d)^N + (Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/(1+d)^N3) +RM 350,000,000 /(1+d)^N + RM 150,000,000/(1+d)^N  + Securities held(original cost 360,912,000)/(1+d)^N +RM (3,000,000 +30,000,000 +1,000,000 - 4,000,000 +8,000,000 +28,000,000 +14,436,480) x Sum {(1+g)^N/(1+d)^N}

Example 1: Calculation using d=i=g=a, at 4% and N, N1 and N2=1 (year one)

Intrinsic value=RM {127,065,000 + 29,615,000 + 198,304,000 +5,352,000 + 350,000,000/1.04 + 150,000,000/1.04 + DCF 80,436,480 + (realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000)/1.04 + (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari)/1.04 + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup)/1.04 + (Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/1.04^N3) + Securities held (original cost 360,912,000)/1.04}

= RM (921,541,710.77 + 1/1.04 x {(realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000) + (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari) + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup) + Securities held (original cost 360,912,000)} + (Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/1.04^N3))

Example 2: Calculation using d=i=g=a, at 4% and N, N1 and N2=10 (year ten)

Intrinsic value = RM {127,065,000 + 29,615,000 + 198,304,000 +5,352,000 + 350,000,000/1.48 + 150,000,000/1.48 + DCF: 10 x 80,436,480 + (realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000)/1.48 + (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari)/1.48 + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup)/1.48 + (Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/1.04^N3) + Securities held (original cost 360,912,000)/1.48}

= RM (1,502,538,637.84 + 1/1.48 x {(realizable investment at year N1 original cost (RM 45,022,000) + (19.1% of Market Cap of Inari) + (12.2% of Market Cap of Ho Hup) + Securities held (original cost 360,912,000)} + (Proceeds from dealer’s license sold at year N3)/1.04^N3))

Number of Shares in issue, net of Treasury Shares: 663,007,000

So make your own judgment is current INSAS’s market price is undervalued or overvalued?

 

Let’s apply the same intrinsic value formula for QL

Intrinsic Value = Present discounted value after year N (Non-current assets + Current assets – Total liabilities) + (DCF of N years)

QL= Present discount value after year N (Non-current assets + 1,252,603,000 – 1,434,987,000) +DCF

= Present discount value (PDV) after year N (2,073,315,000) + Present discounted value of Cash (negative 182,384,000) + (DCF) of N year on assets use to generate the cash flow

  1. Non-current assets (RM 2,073,315,000) consist of:
  1. Property, plant and equipment: RM 1,705,224,000
  1. Land and building: RM 543,148,000. Intrinsic value RM 543,148,000 X (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N
  2. Farm building, Boat, Plant, Machinery, Vehicle, Fitting, Work in progress and etc: RM 1,162,075,000. Intrinsic value as zero at end of life span N + (DCF)
  1. Investment properties: RM 22,731,000. Intrinsic value RM 22,731,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + (DCF)
  2. Prepaid lease payments: RM 57,600,000. Intrinsic value as zero at end of life span N+ (DCF)
  3. Intangible assets: RM 10,617,000. Intrinsic value as zero at end of life span N+ (DCF)
  4. Biological assets: Plantation development expenditure RM 133,681,000. Intrinsic value as zero at end of life span N+ (DCF)
  5. Investment in associates: RM 131,257,000
  1. Indahgrains Logistics Sdn. Bhd: Malaysia operating of warehouse an warehouse management (29.87%)
  2. Boilermech Holdings Berhad Malaysia: Manufacturing, repairing and servicing of boilers (43.67%)
  3. AB Hatchery Sdn. Bhd: Malaysia Hatchery and culturing of shrimps (40.83%).

Intrinsic value of associates = (29.87% of Market Cap of Indah grain at year N)/(1+d)^N + (43.67% of Market Cap of Boilermech at year N)/(1+d)^N + (40.83% of Market Cap of ABC Hatchery at year N)/(1+d)^N + (DCF)

  1. Other receivables; RM 10,033,000. Intrinsic value if repayment done in year M. RM 10,033,000/(1+d)^M

Deferred tax assets; RM 2,172,000: Note: The tax loss carry-forwards do not expire under current tax legislation, except for tax losses of subsidiaries in Indonesia of RM139,887,000 (2017: RM169,297,000) which expire over a 5 year period. Deferred tax assets have not been recognised in respect of the tax loss carry forwards and unabsorbed capital allowances because it is not probable that future taxable profit will be available against which the Group entities can utilise the benefits there from.

  1. Non-current assets (negative 182,384,00) :
  1. Assume just paying bank borrowing rate of b with principle unpaid:

Intrinsic value: Negative RM (184,384,000/(1+d)^N + 184,384,000 x b x Sum{1/(1+d)^N})

Total intrinsic value of QL:

=RM 543,148,000 X (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + RM 22,731,000 x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N + (29.87% of Market Cap of Indah grain at year N)/(1+d)^N + (43.67% of Market Cap of Boilermech at year N)/(1+d)^N + (40.83% of Market Cap of ABC Hatchery at year N)/(1+d)^N + RM 10,033,000/(1+d)^M  minus (184,384,000/(1+d)^N + 184,384,000 x b x Sum{1/(1+d)^N}) +Sum (DCF)

For Sum (DCF) calculation let’s look into QL past 6 years financial data. RM’000

 

31/3/18

31/03/17

31/03/16

31/03/15

31/03/14

31/03/13

Revenue

3,263,830

3,012,026

2,853,924

2,707,767

2,457,186

2,146,307

  YoY %

8.36%

5.54%

5.40%

10.20%

14.48%

10.26%

PBT

255,321

260,511

249,481

245,975

203,767

172,709

Tax

-39,639

-53,691

-47,720

-50,035

-37,013

-35,157

Tax rate

15.53%

20.61%

19.13%

20.34%

18.16%

20.36%

NP to SH

206,236

195,921

192,079

191,400

159,929

131,706

  YoY %

5.26%

2.00%

0.35%

19.68%

21.43%

0.23%

NOSH

1,622,627

1,247,904

1,247,660

1,247,838

1,159,746

832,260

NAPS

1.11

1.4

1.28

1.14

1.11

0.78

EPS

12.71

15.7

15.39

15.34

13.79

11.49

DPS

4.5

7.25

4.25

0

3.5

4.5

DY

0.85

1.46

0.96

0

1.09

1.34

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-current

         2,073,315

         1,929,322

        1,716,769

        1,611,820

       1,360,686

       1,240,455

Current

         1,245,561

         1,250,605

        1,093,253

            973,448

           880,936

           768,075

Tot liabilities

         1,434,987

         1,338,316

        1,139,128

        1,085,818

           895,907

       1,048,892

Tot borrowing

         1,014,124

             923,787

            773,535

            756,991

           654,276

           603,610

Equity to owners

         1,792,600

         1,748,306

        1,591,653

        1,426,583

       1,285,768

           890,781

Gearing

0.566

0.528

0.486

0.531

0.509

0.678

ROE

11.50%

11.21%

12.07%

13.42%

12.44%

14.79%

Cash flow

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Operation

             298,632

             305,988

            251,375

            225,110

           274,146

           119,066

Net Investment

           (331,836)

           (293,850)

         (170,986)

          (277,429)

         (179,905)

         (191,979)

Depreciation

             123,729

             110,076

              96,407

              86,436

             76,256

             64,156

CAPEX/Acqisition

             338,887

             315,473

            238,108

            261,943

           188,259

           188,703

So can someone work out the intrinsic value of QL and tell me is QL worth RM 10 Billion?

Thank you

P/S: The above article minus QL part will be my 25 minutes presentation title: “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA): Intrinsic value of INSAS” for the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley. I welcome i3 Sifu to comment on my method in calculating intrinsic value and I am excited and looking forward to the day to meet personally many i3 sifu.

My profile:

Life philosophy: Do not stay still in your circle of competent/comfort zone needs to constantly challenge your limit. Past success do not guarantee future success and past failure do not mean future failure as long as you are prepared to learn from all and reexamines your mistakes/method.

Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. (A bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush). Understand that in order to beg a 10 bagger needs patience to wait for next market crash. (If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investment)

Investment experience: Newbie and most costly mistake, not knowing the existing of i3investor website till 31-8-2016 and committed my biggest investment mistake of become No. 13 (Thirty Largest Shareholders) of Xingquan Financial Report 2016.

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Labels: INSAS, QL

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
INSAS 0.725 +0.005 (0.69%) 308,800 
QL 6.87 +0.02 (0.29%) 763,700 

  3 people like this.
 
probability hmm actually..there is one more important analysis called 'HA'...if note the single most important analysis

"Hope Analysis"..
.................

the whole world moves based on hope...

and thats most likely how the stock market actually works

........................

remember unless the company has a certain - guaranteed dividend payout policy for a certain period of time...

as a small investor...you can only "hope" of being part of the business ownership..

unless you are the owner...it all lies on hope

.......................

and hope is what all the FA, TA and BS sifus give u....

including the speculators..including the media..bloggers...IB..etc

almost everything is based on hope...
10/01/2019 21:00
probability and that 'Hope' has more powerful action on 'price movement' than any other factor you can think of....

its all about playing the music well to gain the listeners..
10/01/2019 21:02
qqq3 tell a good story more effective .....go lah....say this company got X factor.....inside information.....straight from horse mouth....
10/01/2019 21:05
Flintstones Sslee, insas has been undervalued for many many years. It is a value trap. Why cant you see it?
10/01/2019 21:25
qqq3 Flintstones > Jan 10, 2019 09:25 PM | Report Abuse

Sslee, insas has been undervalued for many many years.
===========

I know , u know....let the beginner experience it himself......
10/01/2019 21:26
qqq3 xinguan cannot buy already....how?
10/01/2019 21:30
kcchongnz Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 10, 2019 12:25 PM | Report Abuse
I stopped listening when - started comparing business prospects of companies like QL with crooks like Sendai, lion, dufu, and Jaks.

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 10, 2019 08:56 PM | Report Abuse
rubbish company for rubbish collectors....

triple q, I am sure you fully agree with your new idol on his statement above.

A rubbish talker promoted furiously on Jaks and Sendai when they were selling at RM1.80+, and RM1.40+ respectively. He wrote a number o articles and hundreds of comments using various nick names then to entice the public and the naive people in i3investor to sailang and use margin to collect those rubbish.

As a result, many lost a fortune.

Don't ever listen to rubbish talker.
10/01/2019 21:42
rajachulan eventhough our method are different... but i salute your effort writing this article.
10/01/2019 21:48
qqq3 kc


me? I make money on Jaks and Sendai....why they didn't make money I have no idea.....
10/01/2019 21:48
Sslee Dear all,
Whether INSAS is value trap or not time will tell. I am happy to collect the 2 cents dividend banked into my account today. As of my article, it is for the coming presentation at Blogger’s day (minus the QL part) I prepare to be personally grilled by the attendees on INSAS. As of QL part is for PLP king to take up the challenge to fill in the number and justify QL intrinsic value is more than RM 10 billion.

Thank you
10/01/2019 21:59
Cy Ong QL vs insas??
Why using 2 different sector to compare
10/01/2019 23:32
qqq3 PLP king ...

======

well...as usual, u don't know what u are talking and neither do I.....
11/01/2019 00:16
qqq3 ss

for a beginner in the stock market...u are truly very cocky.....that long number is an old hand in stock market, and u are a beginner....this is very obvious from every post u wrote and from every post written by that long number guy....
11/01/2019 00:21
calvintaneng QL RESOURCES - Shocking Manipulation Revealed & Funds Are Selling & Getting Out, Calvin Tan Research

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/189675.jsp
11/01/2019 01:36
qqq3 broken record, calvin?
11/01/2019 01:42
qqq3 me what I think?

I think together with help from Long Number, we have the tools and basis to identify future multiple baggers and benefit from it instead of just jumping around like a loose cannon
11/01/2019 07:20
Sslee Dear Cy Ong,
Good question. Because the end goal of fundamental analysis is to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) that an investor can compare with a stock's current market price, thus indicating whether the stock is undervalued or overvalued.

The comparison between INSAS and QL is to show that the goal to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) can be applied to any company provided you understand the business and apply DCF properly. Let’s compare:

INSAS: With (current asset - total liabilities) = RM 860,912,000 and Non-current asset of Building for rental income + subsidiaries/associate (Listed and unlisted) at Book value with (19.1%) Inari alone generate dividend of RM 40.147 million (FY 2018), RM 26.724 million (FY2017) and wholly own subsidiary ICL interest income from the money-lending business for (FY2018) is RM23.0 million. M&A Security : Stock broking and dealing in securities and provision of corporate finance and advisory services for IPO generating positive cash flow..Net profit: RM 90.5 million (FY2018), RM 181 million (FY 2017), RM77.4 million (FY 2016), RM 91.1million (FY2015) and RM 160.4 million (FY 2014) is worth Market Cap of RM 478 million. Note: 19.1 % Inari alone worth Market CAP of RM 877 million as of 10/1/19 closing price.

Whereas QL: With (current asset - total liabilities) = negative 182 million and with major non- current assets of “Farm building, Boat, Plant, Machinery, Vehicle, Fitting, Work in progress” RM 1,162 million with will have Intrinsic value of zero at end of life span N. Total borrowing RM 1,014 million, Net profit and Cash flow as per table in the above article. Tell me why investors chase QL to Market Cap of RM 10,903 million as of 10/1/19 closing price? Just because of someone selling you the ideas FamilyMart will make tones of profit?

So my question is investors still using FA to guild their investing decision?

Thank you.
11/01/2019 08:03
stockraider U need to understand mah.....!!
General Raider is the unofficial representative of sifu calvin in stock pick competition mah...!!
Out of 5 picks of raider....3 or 60% of its pick come from sifu calvin selection mah...!! Which are;

1. Bjc
2. cbip
3. wtk

Beside that, in another stockpick fight, General Raider is also unofficial representative of sslee & value stockpickers selection on insas competing with Mr Long overvalue growth stock QL Loh...!!

Why raider so kepoh, fight everyone as unofficial value stock picker leh ??
Bcos General raider believe in value investment & with the combination of raider own improvise leech investment tech, veli powerful loh...!!

Posted by joetay2 > Jan 11, 2019 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

but calvin, we r more interested to know why u r not taking part in stock pick 2019????

u say u r a value investor and can spot bargain, but why r u not taking part????

i just want to see if u can get a ranking within the top 20.

lol.......

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 11, 2019 10:15 AM | Report Abuse

Younginvestor

When I was in my Secondary School
The teacher asked us to name 3 things we would like to have as a future career

I stated

1. Botanist
2. Accountant
3. Evangelist

As it turned out I didn't end up a botanist or accountant. I did Evangelistic work for sometime, though
11/01/2019 10:57
qqq3 sted by Sslee > Jan 11, 2019 08:03 AM | Report Abuse


The comparison between INSAS and QL is to show that the goal to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) can be applied to any company provided you understand the business and apply DCF properly.
===========

provided u understand the business loll....I put it to u that u does not understand the business, not in the deep sense needed for proper evaluation.......
11/01/2019 11:00
stockraider U talk so much cock do u understand that insas is still leading QL now in terms of gain todate leh ??

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 11, 2019 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

sted by Sslee > Jan 11, 2019 08:03 AM | Report Abuse


The comparison between INSAS and QL is to show that the goal to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) can be applied to any company provided you understand the business and apply DCF properly.
===========

provided u understand the business loll....I put it to u that u does not understand the business, not in the deep sense needed for proper evaluation.......
11/01/2019 11:04
qqq3 sslee

u are just a beginner trying to show off.....sell a PE 50 stock to buy a value trap , has been for years....

too shallow.......
11/01/2019 11:04
stockraider Thats why people like u...never excel in stock selection competition loh....furthermore no balls to join the i3 competition this yr mah..!!

Why leh ??
Bcos u don understand the art of making monies loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 11, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

sslee

u are just a beginner trying to show off.....sell a PE 50 stock to buy a value trap , has been for years....

too shallow.......
11/01/2019 11:07
qqq3 i3 competition? not interested in kids games....I enter money competition.
11/01/2019 11:09
stockraider Raider remember previously u join many time woh...!!
But achieve Very low ranking loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 11, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

i3 competition? not interested in kids games....I enter money competition.
11/01/2019 11:10
qqq3 anyway raid..... u are just an idiot.....
11/01/2019 11:12
stockraider I think u r a real idiot loh...!!
Talkcock but no standard loh..!!
No result & track record to show too mah..!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 11, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

anyway raid..... u are just an idiot.....
11/01/2019 11:13
stockraider If u buy insas today for rm 0.67...with equity value of rm 2.54 per share is equivalent to buying a growth stock share of rm 0.65 with a compounded growth rate of 20% pa for the next 6 yrs loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 4, 2019 12:55 PM | Report Abuse X

But in the case of insas compare to growth stock, just in case the growth rate falter from 20% pa to negative 5% pa within 1 yr...in the case of insas u still get equity value of rm 2.54 per share loh..!!

This is the wonder of value investment like insas loh...!!
A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 4, 2019 01:02 PM | Report Abuse X

Raider ask loh....why u want to buy wonderful co at high uncertain price n hold for 20 yrs when u can buy insas for rm 0.65 which already has rm 2.54 equity value, which is an equivalent to compound growth rate of 20% pa for next 6 yrs loh...!!

Why u r not willing to hold insas for 3 to 7 yrs leh ??
11/01/2019 11:59
qqq3 Insas rubbish hunters think they find diamond....but most of the time, market is correct , rubbish hunters are wrong....just that u do not know u are wrong because u lack the skill set to analysis the thing properly.
12/01/2019 11:38
stockraider Dear all,

Insas is a truly a msian berkshire hathway it has shown growth good time & bad time just that msian don know how to evaluate mah...!!

Just look at the amazing growth track record of value creation of insas

Sept 2018- Nta rm 2.54

Dec 2017..Nta rm 2.49

Dec 2016 ...Nta Rm 2.18

Dec 2015..Nta Rm 1.96

Dec 2014..Nta rm 1.82

Dec 2013 nta..rm 1.71

Dec 2012 nta ..rm 1.51

Dec 2011 nta..rm 1.38

Dec 2010 nta...rm 1.22

Dec 2009 nta ..rm 1.14

Now if u look at the above over 10 yrs...insas has been creating value with growth every yr without fail with gain of rm 0.06 to rm 0.30 per yr without failed mah...!!

For the 10 yrs insas equity has grown from rm 1.14 to rm 2.54 per share an amazing rate of return growth exceeding exceeding 12% pa loh...!!

Now u tell me insas is a gruesome co with growth rate of 12% pa growth ?

And u tell me Ql is a superb growth co with it achieving a compound rate of only 8% pa ??

Something is wrong mah...!!

Insas is a great buy loh....even it is rm 0.705 bcos the fair value exceed rm 2.50 loh...!!
With cash holding of exceeding rm 0.70 u r in fact getting insas for almost free mah...!!
And insas has a compound growth rate of 12% pa over 10 yrs woh ...!!

Insas is a truly msian berkshire hathway stock loh...!!

Just buy loh....!!
12/01/2019 11:39
TheContrarian Dear Mr Sslee, the market price of a stock is determined mainly how tight the stock is held. A stock cornered by a few substantial shareholders will keep the price up ...... until one day these elephants try to exit via the only door.
12/01/2019 13:02
qqq3 start by looking at the revenue account.....u will be horrified....guaranteed.....
12/01/2019 13:16
qqq3 what can they do ?

give u dreamers some Inari shares?
12/01/2019 14:40
stockraider WHY RAIDER SAY U NEED TO CONSIDER INSAS & NOT MISSED OUT LEH ??

U CHECKLAH....IN 2013 NTA IS RM 1.71 THE SHARE PRICE WAS RM RM 0.45 LOH.....TODAY NTA RM 2.54 THE SHARE PRICE RM 0.705 LOH...VERY FAIR & NICE INVESTMENT PRICE LOH...!!

U sold for rm 1.00 in 2015 when NTA rm 1.96 and now nta is rm 2.54 u can easily target minimum rm 1.30 n above loh...!!

making 100% no issue loh...!!

Dear all,

Insas is a truly a msian berkshire hathway it has shown growth good time & bad time just that msian don know how to evaluate mah...!!

Just look at the amazing growth track record of value creation of insas

Sept 2018- Nta rm 2.54

Dec 2017..Nta rm 2.49

Dec 2016 ...Nta Rm 2.18

Dec 2015..Nta Rm 1.96

Dec 2014..Nta rm 1.82

Dec 2013 nta..rm 1.71

Dec 2012 nta ..rm 1.51

Dec 2011 nta..rm 1.38

Dec 2010 nta...rm 1.22

Dec 2009 nta ..rm 1.14

Now if u look at the above over 10 yrs...insas has been creating value with growth every yr without fail with gain of rm 0.06 to rm 0.30 per yr without failed mah...!!

For the 10 yrs insas equity has grown from rm 1.14 to rm 2.54 per share an amazing rate of return growth exceeding exceeding 12% pa loh...!!

Now u tell me insas is a gruesome co with growth rate of 12% pa growth ?

And u tell me Ql is a superb growth co with it achieving a compound rate of only 8% pa ??

Something is wrong mah...!!

Insas is a great buy loh....even it is rm 0.705 bcos the fair value exceed rm 2.50 loh...!!
With cash holding of exceeding rm 0.70 u r in fact getting insas for almost free mah...!!
And insas has a compound growth rate of 12% pa over 10 yrs woh ...!!

Insas is a truly msian berkshire hathway stock loh...!!

Just buy loh....!!
12/01/2019 21:38
qqq3 equity accounting of Inari....
12/01/2019 21:46
stockraider Posted by stockraider > Jan 12, 2019 09:47 PM | Report Abuse X

Again u tell that to warren buffet berkshire hathway loh...!!

Berkshire also samething like insas nta increase due to share investment mah....!!

Thats why raider says insas is msian berkshire hathway, which again proven true loh!.

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 12, 2019 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

that NTA increases not from trading....its from Inari.....

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 12, 2019 09:46 PM | Report Abuse

equity accounting of Inari....
12/01/2019 21:49
qqq3 raid...

no use one...if discounts to NTA keeps getting bigger only.....
12/01/2019 21:51
qqq3 raid...at the moment...discounts to NAV even bigger than discounts to NTA.....so how?
12/01/2019 21:53
qqq3 can do a corporate raid?
12/01/2019 21:54
stockraider if like that like u say no use , how can raider & leno make more than 100% gain in 2015 leh ??

Must be panlai...mah....!!

Margin of safety investment & big discount on NTA...sure can make monies mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 12, 2019 09:51 PM | Report Abuse

raid...

no use one...if discounts to NTA keeps getting bigger only.....
12/01/2019 21:55
stockraider in conclusion insas is one of the best classic margin of safety u can find in real life loh....!!

1.It has Huge margin of safety with NTA rm 2.54 v share price rm 0.705.
2. It pays good div of rm 0.02 given div yield close to 3% pa slightly better yield than nestle loh...!!
3. It has nett cash of Rm 300 million giving it, cash per share of rm 0.70, in fact if u buy insas now at rm 0.705, u almost getting the whole insas for free loh..!!
4. Insas has unbroken 10 yrs track record of making profit between rm 0.06 to rm 0.30 per share.
5. it hass 10 yr compound rate of return of 12% pa growing its nta from rm 1.10 per share to rm 2.54 per share loh...!!
6. The business model of insas is like warren buffet berkshire hathway very impressive but unlike berkshire, it is minus the expensive share premium u need to pay in the case of berkshire loh..!!
7. Insas is really msian berkshire hathway loh....in simple term u may call it insas hathway loh....!!
12/01/2019 22:53
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Jan 11, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
sslee
u are just a beginner trying to show off.....sell a PE 50 stock to buy a value trap , has been for years....
too shallow.......


Person with the multiple nicks qqq3, desa, stockmanny, Brightsmart etc has had many posts and a few tens thousands of comments in i3investor. None can match him even close.

SSLee has less than a thousand comments and a few posts.

However, SSLee is invited for the talk in i3investor this March. I did not hear that man with multiple nicks is invited to give a talk in i3investor in March.

That says something about who is better, hasn't it?

A person who is loud and carrying personal attacks on everyone else, and PLP a couple, doesn't mean he is good.
13/01/2019 00:59
qqq3 me... I am happy being me.... and yes, it's normal for a beginner to lead other beginners to value traps
13/01/2019 02:01
qqq3 kc...this ss really cocky isn't he?

From every post he makes we know he is a beginner, from every post long number make, we know he is an old hand.....what makes a beginner like ss so cocky? Good question.......
13/01/2019 02:05
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Jan 13, 2019 02:05 AM | Report Abuse
kc...this ss really cocky isn't he?
From every post he makes we know he is a beginner, from every post long number make, we know he is an old hand.....what makes a beginner like ss so cocky? Good question.......


SSLee is clearly a humble guy because of his background from a Chinese school in his early age. Most of us who have some Chinese education background are like that. His articles and comments also reflect that.

I do think SSLee is not the most savvy investor here, but he is no beginner. Look at all the hard facts and figures he provided for Insas,although I don't agree all, instead of all the emptiness and bullshit by you.

If SSLee write very bad comment about you, you should look at the mirror and ponder about why.

In my sincere opinion, the one with tens of thousand comments, spiking every writer in i3, but PLP just a couple to the sky, is the cockiest one in i3investor.
13/01/2019 09:09
qqq3 kc....u a bit biased, not saying what u really think....


I know u are experienced enough to know a rookie when u see one .......maybe a good student of yours but still a rookie. Cannot hide the fact that this sslee is a rookie in the investment world.....

Told him already, stock market not for him, convent more suitable, Buddhist in mountain also can.

Why I like this long number guy so much? Because he has lots of experience, a breath of fresh air, just what the doctor ordered, don't mess with the guy....His posts are of the quality and experience of Tan KW.

Kc..People here don't have to follow the specific stocks ...but stock market also about character, habit, practise. That long number has plenty of good stuffs about that.
13/01/2019 11:53
qqq3 Kc..People here don't have to follow the specific stocks ...but stock market also about character, habit, practise. That long number has plenty of good stuffs about that....and business sense....very important , perhaps the must important aspect of the investment world......
13/01/2019 11:54
qqq3 long number aka as Philips.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600188844.jsp
13/01/2019 12:05
kalteh May I know where to find more details for the conference?
14/01/2019 11:44
Sslee Dear kalteh,
I do not know where to find more details for the conference. Most likely once the time slot has been confirmed for all the invited speakers an announcement will be published in i3investor.
Below are the two email I received from i3investor.
Dear Mr. SS Lee,
Invitation as Speaker for Investment Bloggers’ Day 2019
Thank you for your past contributions to the I3investor community by posting various blog articles and participated in the community discussions.

I'm excited to share with you that I3investor and ShareInvestor Malaysia are jointly organizing an Investment Bloggers' Day 2019 Conference. It will be held on Saturday, 2nd March 2019, from 10am to 5pm at Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley Kuala Lumpur.

We would like to invite you to be a speaker during the event. We will be allocating speaking slot with tentative duration of 45 minutes for your session on that day. We hope you can consider this an opportunity to share your knowledge and views in investing/trading in the stock market of Malaysia, as well as offering value add services that you may have to the audience.
Yours sincerely,

William
President
I3 LLC
30 Wall Street, 8th Floor, New York, NY 10005
website: www.i3investor.com


Hi Mr. Lee Soon Sheng,

I am Lew Cheong Teck, local partner of i3investor in this region.

Thanks for accepting the invitation. We have allocated 25 mins slot for you.

Could you please provide us the following:
1. Your Photo (Photo size shall be 1MB and above)
2. Your Profile
3. Your Topic for Bloggers' Day
4. Kindly provide the above before 10th January 2019.

Once the time slot has been confirmed, we will let you know.

Regards,
Lew Cheong Teck,

QSOFT PTE LTD
111 North Bridge Road
#21-01 Peninsula Plaza Singapore
14/01/2019 23:56
TheContrarian Wow, an invitation from Wall Street!
15/01/2019 00:06


 

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