Highlights

Zhang Zuode

Author: zhangzuode   |   Latest post: Mon, 19 Sep 2022, 9:40 AM

 

Hibiscus – What Warren Buffet sees in oil

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022, 9:40 AM


Every other day, there are talk about the end of oil & gas industry. But Warren Buffet is investing more money into Occidental. WHY?

 

The main reasons:

a)      Investment required – solar+wind contribution to global energy consumption (figure below) is only 4.3% (2,900 Twh) while O&G is 51.9% (91,500 Twh). It is obvious that renewable / green energy will take decades (beyond 2035 or even 2040) to replace O&G.

Assume O&G current consumption is at a standstill (no increase in years to come), it is estimated that with a rate-of-increase 4 time current solar+wind annual increases (251.5 Twh/yr x 4), it will take 73 years to replace 80% of O&G (remaining 20% for petrochemical & mining).

From 2010 to 2019, 2.4T was spent to bring solar+wind to 4.3%.

Current “natural” experiment in Europe on reducing consumption of O&G by about 15% would be interesting to watch, to see whether the population agree or not.

 

b)      Reduction of finance to fossil fuel projects.

Fossil fuel projects financing reduction

Since May 1992, UN Environment Programme Finance Initiatives (UNEP FI) was established by visionary leaders that finance need to be transformed to achieve sustainable development. The 13 original banks can be found here together with a timeline of the evolution to todays’ almost strangulation of finance to fossil fuel projects.

Over the years, UNEP FI evolved and strengthen its impact on financial institutions all over the world through initiatives, here are some pertinent developments:

·         BASEL III & ENVIRONMENTAL RISK (2014) UNEP FI conducted a study (by University of Cambridge) exploring the role that financial – and in particular banking – regulation can play in the transition to a green economy. The result was the release of a report which comprises a series of recommendations on how to optimize the way existing financial policy and regulation is deployed to achieve (financial and environmental) sustainability goals

·         2016 - PRI (Principles for Responsible Investment), and The Generation Foundation, launched the Statement into Investor Obligations and Duties to call on international and national policy makers to introduce a policy instrument that clarifies investor obligations and duties to make explicit reference to the requirement to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues in investment decision-making.

·         Principles for positive impact finance (2017) - a set of high-level guidelines that aim to promote the development of positive impact business and finance and thereby contribute to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

·         The Principles for Responsible Banking (2019) were launched during the annual United Nations General Assembly.

·         Net-zero Banking Alliance (2021) – to align lending and investment portfolios with net-zero by 2050 with intermediate targets for 2030 or sooner, actions with accountability. This initiative is accredited by the Race to Zero (2019).

·         TEN UNEP FI MEMBERS MADE CLIMATE COMMITMENTS AND CALLED ON GOVERNMENTS TO STEP UP ON ADAPTATION (The statement signatory firms are the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Rabobank, Rockefeller Asset Management, Standard Chartered Bank, Yes Bank, ABN Amro, Danske Bank, ING, AXA XL and LinkREIT. They have all committed to publish climate risk disclosures relating to their business within two years.)

·         PRI, UNEP FI and The Generation Foundation launched our work programme “A Legal Framework for Impact.” The report provides ground-breaking legal analysis on the extent to which legal frameworks enable investors to consider impact in their activities across 11 jurisdictions: EU, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Japan, South Africa, the Netherlands, UK and US.

Then, at Paris “One Planet Summit” in December 2017, eight central banks and supervisors established the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System  (NGFS). Since then, the membership of the Network has grown dramatically, across the five continents. Bank Negara is also a member.

All the above led DBS to recently issue its “Glidepath” to net zero, oil & gas being one of nine sectors targeted. Below is the summary page on O&G.

 

Just look at the red oval and note how DBS will achieve their targets – basically finance transitioning away from oil & gas production only.

All other banks in SE Asia are under pressure to follow suit – peer pressure as well as regulator pressure. Do not forget Bank Negara, MAS are both in NGFS.

 

To recap, the two main reasons why WB is investing in Occidental are:

1)      Investment required – to put in place renewables to replace fossil fuels runs into the tens of trillion and is estimated to take 73 years to replace 80% of O&G current usage.

Investment here is not restricted to finance, but also include land (for solar/wind farms – this is already facing push-back in certain localities due to size required, noise, birds killed, etc.), production facilities and the whole supply chain (mines, storage batteries, etc.).

2)      Strangulation of finance to O&G – Since 1992, UNEP FI has evolved to put in place legal as well as peer pressure to banking and financial institutions to stop financing O&G projects that maintain (depletion - don't forget) or increase production. Central banks are also involved since 2017.

Do note that the above two reasons are being carried out by non-public actors. That is, they are not representatives of legislature.

 

Repercussion

Since 2020, with the lockdown, the green momentum has gathered pace as utopia was experienced (during lockdown).

1)      The first reason above, confirmed that oil & gas will still be in demand for decades to come. WB is known to be a long-term investor.

2)      There has been chronic underinvestment (in O&G) since 2015

3)      Spare capacity is almost zero – OPEC has already sounded the alarm as well as recently shale oil in usa.

4)      With the diversion of funding from O&G to renewable or green energy, the spare capacity issue will not be solved any time soon, instead, it is going to get worse.

5)      Oil & gas projects will have to meet higher ROI given limited financing leading to fewer projects (few if any oil & gas companies can fully finance new production projects by themselves).

6)      New supply to replace depletion and meet higher future demand will not be there / enough.

7)      Supply will not meet demand = higher price of oil & gas.

Of course, some will say, the current Ukraine Russia conflict will cause Europe to go into a recession thus reducing oil & gas consumption. Equally, sanctions threaten removal of Russian oil & gas from global market.

Do note that it is Europe that will go into a recession and NOT the whole world. Yes, some part of the world is also suffering – Sri Lanka comes to mind, but India is sizzling as well as most of SE Asia and other parts of the world. OPEC latest monthly report is upbeat on global growth.

 

So how does this affect Hibiscus?

a)      Oil (& gas) prices are going to remain elevated, and highly likely to increase over time as supply will not be able to meet demand in coming years.

b)      Hibiscus has a long runway (Sunflower/Marigold, infill wells, water-flooding, extension of PSCs, etc.) and its future is secured as oil & gas will remain relevant to the economy of Malaysia and the world in the decades to come.

c)      Hibiscus, a supplier of Oil & gas that remains in demand in foreseeable future will continue to make money, lots of it.

 

Warren Buffet investment in Occidental is a confirmation and vote of confident in the “sunset” oil & gas industry.

 

Thank you for reading, happy investing.

PEACE

 

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

  Be the first to like this.
 
zhangzuode UN repeats the "threats" to de-fund oil & gas
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UN-Secretary-General-Fossil-Industry-Is-Feasting-On-Windfall-Profits-As-Plane.html
21/09/2022 8:36 AM
zhangzuode Where is "SmartMoney" investing:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Private-Equity-Scoops-Up-Oil-And-Gas-Assets.html
21/09/2022 8:45 AM
zhangzuode This is Bank Negara - again a non-elected person
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-financial-sector-vital-manage-climaterelated-risks-support-transition
22/09/2022 10:40 AM
zhangzuode Spare oil capacity at less than 2% of global consumption
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/head-of-uaes-adnoc-says-little-room-for-manoeuvre-in-oil-markets/
25/09/2022 8:13 AM
zhangzuode AET or EAT, what are these in the world of oil:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/oil-in-a-decarbonising-world/
26/09/2022 9:20 AM

Dayang - History Repeats Itself

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Sun, 21 Aug 2022, 3:03 PM


Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd

Bursa: 5141

History Repeats Itself

History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes

 

The 2nd quarter result is a breakout quarter – in Dayang’s history, the RM 263.41M is the highest on record.

Similarly, Offshore TMS of RM 224.35M is also the highest for a 2nd quarter on record.

Nonetheless, taking a conservative approach, the 3rd & 4th quarter is estimated to be 310M & 255M giving a total of 988.5M for FY 2022.

The revenue mirrors the trend of 2018 to 2019.

2021 was subjected to movement control, thus resulting in lower revenue.

Now 2022, movement control has been lifted and work completed follow 2019 very closely (for first 2 quarters).

Typically, 1st & 4th quarter revenue is lower due to the monsoon season.

Potentially, 3Q might match that achieved in 2019 while 4Q is iffy as it is weather dependent, thus 988.5M is a reasonable estimate.

Due to long-lead time to prepare for the execution of work offshore, Q3/Q4 revenue is firm and no longer dependent on the movement of oil price as material need to be ordered, vessel slots booked and manpower sourced and confirmed.

 

Using a net profit margin of 15.2% (average 2014 to 2020 – excluding 2017) and 1,152 million shares gives:

EPS = 13 sen

 

For 2019, net profit margin was 21.2%, the EPS adjusted for 1,152 million shares is 19.2 sen.

Potential share price in the coming six to nine months depends on market appetite / sentiment.

Upside:

  1. Higher net profit margin (nearer to 20%)
  2. Higher utilization of vessels
  3. Higher Q3 revenue
  4. Higher Q4 revenue due to calmer weather

Downside

  1. Outbreak of Covid 19
  2. Vessel’s outage
  3. Early & bad monsoon

 

Happy investing.

 

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Dayang shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Dayang or any other equities / securities / assets.

  hhswong likes this.
 

Hibiscus - is there a future

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Sun, 31 Jul 2022, 8:30 PM


Hibiscus – is there a future

Since the release of Q3 FY2022, it appeared that there is no future in oil, by extension, Hibiscus. Hibiscus share price dropped from RM 1.49 to 82 sen. It is like the end of the world if one is to follow comments in investing forums. Mind you, oil prices have REMAINED above US$ 100/barrel.

Rational for the dropped was the impending recession supposed to be caused by the high inflations occurring all over the world. This supposedly recession would cause such devastating demand destruction – mother of all demand destruction. Is this warranted?

Below is OECD Petroleum inventory (https://ycharts.com/indicators/oecd_petroleum_stocks) since 1996. The OECD Petroleum Inventory is considered a proxy for world petroleum (crude oil & products) inventory.

​From the graph, there are 2 periods of demand destruction (reflected as inventory increase/build) namely:

1)      Asian Financial Crisis – 0.53 mbpd

2)      2008 Financial Crisis – 0.45 mbpd

And 2 periods of uncommon events:

a)       Oil over production crisis – due to shale oil (drill at all cost) and OPEC production “war” to maintain market share – 0.59 mbpd (it was a protracted “war” – 912 DAYS)

b)      Pandemic – 2.45 mbpd (very high, also very short in duration compared with the others)

Correspondingly, after each recession and events, there is recovery (reduction/draw in inventory):

·         AFC – 0.83 mbpd

·         2008 FC – there was protracted recovery – economic structural change & start of shale oil

·         Over production crisis – 0.57 mbpd

·         Pandemic – 1.31 mbpd (data up to April 2022)

The market appeared to have considered demand destruction similar to that of the pandemic. This of course is mis-placed. A destruction similar to that of AFC or 2008 Financial crisis would be a better approximation.

The recovery /draw after the Pandemic is exceptional (1.31 mbpd). The following explain:

·         Chronic underinvestment (since 2015 & hammered further in 2020) in supply

·         Thus, supply growth is slower than demand growth

·         Demand can only be met from inventory

·         Pent-up demand from the lock-down in 2020

And from the graph, the trajectory of this recovery appears to continue in coming months. Mind you, air-travel has not fully recovered yet.

From my previous post:

​Oil price should remain above USD 100 per barrel for coming 3 years.

With oil price expected to be above USD 100/barrel, free cash flow will be EXCELLENT. Now, already results announced by oil majors are OUTSTANDING,

and for coming 3 years also.

There are also some other points to consider:

a)       The number of free drilling rigs available for hire is now approaching ZERO. Since 2015, compounded with Pandemic, a lot of rigs have been scrapped. Those not scrapped, to return them to service would require substantial amount of cash (refurbishment) due to inflation! New build will cost a bomb.

b)      Ditto for vessels (AHT, work boat/barge, etc.) servicing oil & gas industry.

c)       And the most interesting of all the points is that financial institutes are still mandated not to lend to oil & gas companies for development.

All the above points, taken together, will prolong supply shortfall.

Demand meantime will grow!!! Please do not wrap your mind around the impending recession. This will happen, probably already in recession for the OECD countries. BUT, in Asia, China, India plus ASEAN still want to grow, develop and better ourselves. So, for whatever demand destruction in OECD countries, there will be demand growth in ASIA!

Asia included Middle East. World consumptions are from OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports.

Note that most of the growth (85.9%) in demand over the last 11 years was in Asia.

Unfortunately, Asia is not a unified market like US that still “make” the oil price. Nonetheless, the premium Brent has over WTI is now at 5.38 which at one time was almost on par. This showed that, Brent, being international (outside US), there is supply tightness.

Conclusion:

·         Fear of demand destruction in coming recession equal that of pandemic is over played.

·         Recession demand destruction in OECD countries is neutralized by demand growth in Asia

·         Aviation demand has still to recover to pre-pandemic level

·         Supply growth is hampered by lack of rigs, vessels and still by ESG financing constraint – chronic underinvestment

·         Oil price should remain elevated above USD 100/barrel for next 3 years, at least, until new supply come onstream (to replace depleted stocks, production depletion & rising demand).


Hibiscus, is there still a future?

The drop in share price was drastic, other oil majors shared similar predicament.

Recently, oil majors have been releasing their latest quarterly results, and, it is EXCELLENT.

Here is Hibiscus estimated Q4, FY 2022 and preliminary FY 2023 results:

The total EPS for the FY 2022 is RM 0.179 – adjusted to exclude one-off expenses (negative goodwill & impairment).

In estimating Q4 revenue, monthly average oil prices less half standard deviation for the month was used to be conservative as there is no way to know when exactly sale occurs for the month.

For gas, Anasuria gas price is higher than Malaysian. As this is new, estimate is at best, guesstimate.

Among the expenses, General & Admin continue to include the Technical Services charge by Repsol. This might be the last quarter for the technical services.

Free Cash Flow

In 3Q FY2022, the FCF (9 months) is estimated to be:

Net cash from operation RM 615M

PPE           RM 79M

intangible asset   RM 21M

FCF           RM 515M

It is estimated that FCF for 4Q is about RM 280M.


FY 2023

The number of barrels sold is Q4 x 4. Any production increase in Anasuria due to repair of sub-sea valve is negated by depletion. Similarly, depletion in Repsol asset and North Sabah is considered to be overcome by wells maintenance, infill wells or side-track wells.

Preliminary FCF for FY 2023 is RM 960M. This will be revised as more data become available.


HIBISCUS DEFINITELY HAS A FUTURE, A BRIGHT FUTURE WITH HIGH FCF

What to do with the excellent cash generated?

1)      Pay down all loans

2)      Pay higher dividend

3)     Buy back shares


SUGGESTION

I repeat here again, sell Australian asset – this will release manpower to improve productive assets further, better focus.


HAPPY INVESTING.

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

Labels: HIBISCS
  VenFx likes this.
 
zhangzuode The estimates provided do not include any one-off items like impairment, negative or positive goodwill or such income / expenses.
04/08/2022 10:23 AM
zhangzuode As posted before, shale oil is currently facing equipment constraint:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-shale-defy-calls-boost-output-they-funnel-profits-shareholders
09/08/2022 8:41 AM
Sslee The only reason I can think of why Hib sudden drop is Ting Hai effect brought by MoneyMakers and KYY.
09/08/2022 8:52 AM
qqq3333 Posted by Sslee > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

The only reason I can think of why Hib sudden drop is Ting Hai effect brought by MoneyMakers and KYY.
==========


shares drop don't need reason. shares go up in this environment need reason.
09/08/2022 12:53 PM
zhangzuode I have basically given up on rationalizing the drops.

Nonetheless, unless one is a "day" trader, fundamentally, the oil sector, much like the metal sectors as well, are facing supply constraint. And this will eventually lead to higher prices for the commodities.
10/08/2022 10:37 AM
qqq3333 there is a limit to reasons and left brain...
how about right brain and emotions?
10/08/2022 11:42 AM
qqq3333 u can't pretend there is no wholistic approach
10/08/2022 11:44 AM
zhangzuode Of course, the emotion and right brain has been in pieces...
10/08/2022 2:53 PM
zhangzuode Why Saudi / Venezuela / Shale oil not investing in new oil production capacities
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/tverberg-why-no-politician-willing-tell-us-real-energy-story
25/08/2022 3:23 PM
zhangzuode https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-shale-warns-energy-stricken-europe-no-bailout-coming
16/09/2022 7:13 PM
zhangzuode https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lower-oil-prices-defy-robust-forecasts-for-global-demand/
18/09/2022 10:19 AM

Hibiscus - oil price

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Mon, 6 Jun 2022, 9:23 PM


Hibiscus’ quarter 3 result came and gone. Now, with management's estimated oil (& gas in boe) to be sold, a robust estimate of the revenue could be made.

Gas prices

Oil price for Hibiscus has been established as that based on Brent and this is well known.

However, gas prices vary widely around the world. Based on Hibiscus, Malaysian gas price is linked to High Sulphur fuel oil (page 13 section 3.3 of the circular 1, 13/12/21). Q3 gave it as US$ 6.98 per Mscf or US$ 41.88 boe, i.e., only 34% of the realized oil price of 123.

Appreciate fellow investors that would point to relevant sources for this grade of high sulphur fuel oil pricing, thank you. Meanwhile, the Henry Hub natural gas price will be used.

Revenue from UK

Production from UK as a percentage of Hibiscus’ total production going forward would be reduced. The windfall tax details is here: https://home.kpmg/uk/en/home/insights/2022/05/tmd-uk-government-announces-windfall-tax-on-extraordinary-oil-and-gas-profits.html. There is deduction for investment allowance to incentivize investment in UK to support energy security. Hibiscus might incurred a reduced windfall tax rate with Marigold development.

The windfall tax should end on 31/12/25.

As revenue from UK fall in percentage to total revenue, the correspondent profit after tax contribution should equally fall and the windfall tax will not have a significant dent in the PAT.

Oil price

From the figures below, OECD petroleum inventory (up to February 2022) is as shown, one with (spot / dated) Brent oil price included, the other with USA oil production. The 10-year seasonal average is zeroized while any particular month will be either above or below these zero averages. OECD inventory can be considered a proxy for global inventory.

Observations:

  • It can be observed that the reduction of inventory – (marked) 1, 2 & 3, the period of the reduction is shorter for each time period. These 3 periods, the reduction in inventory is due to demand exceeding supply and the pace of demand increase has quicken.
  • Period A where there was a build in inventory, this is due to the fast growth of USA shale oil production from year 2012 onward with a pause in mid-2015 to 2017
  • Inventory increases in 2020 was due to prevention of consumption rather than destruction of demand like those that occur in 2008-2009
  • It is clear that when inventory drop, oil price increases, but note that correlection may not be causation, you are warned
  • Last time inventory is near the 10-year seasonal average – 2012 to 2014, the price of oil hover around 110
  • 2020 peak at July, 4.8 billion barrels and February 2022 is 4.1 b, a plunged of 1.2 mbpd.

 

USA production remains below 12 mbpd, a 1.1 mbpd less than the peak at beginning of 2020. This is because when wells are shut in (during lock-down), wax / glue / rubbish clogged up the pores of the oil-bearing rock formation. So, there was supply destruction in addition to depletion.

Also, between 2012 to 2014, the increase in supply is just enough to keep pace with demand, all thanks to shale oil. Again in 2018 to 2020, shale oil saved the day for the increase demand. Today, shale oil is so restraint that they won’t come to the rescue this time. The restraint is mainly due to ESG as well as regulations.

Now, after 2020 where the greenies saw what happened during lock-down, it has quickened the pace to ESG and oil (& gas) extraction become pariah. This coupled with already much (chronic) under investment (from 2015), supply of oil will NOT meet current demand in the foreseeable future.

China and now India has both increase their demand for oil, while SE Asia, especially Indonesia are just as hungry. These 3 billion people are not easy to keep down, they want to prosper too.

From the above figure with oil price, it would suggest that oil price could go much higher and last longer, at least minimum 3 years.

Yes, there will be demand destruction as oil price increases, but at what price. Below are some estimates:

At current price, the amount of oil used/GDP has not reached those of previous year where demand destruction happened. There is still room for oil price increases.

Sure, there are other factors like the average wage over the years, etc., etc., that might cause demand destruction at lower or higher oil price. Choose whatever suit the narrative.


Conclusion

Oil price might increase nearer to 185 USD/b. Nonetheless, oil price would stay elevated at around USD 110/b for at least 3 years going forward due to time required to bringing new supply to the market. Hibiscus will continue to make excellent profit in the coming 3 year or more.

 

HAPPY INVESTING, PEACE.

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

 

  PureBULL ... likes this.
 
zhangzuode Goldman thinking is similar : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-again-hikes-oil-price-target-now-sees-barrel-hitting-140-125
07/06/2022 2:25 PM

Hibiscus 3Q22 Review

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Thu, 26 May 2022, 9:01 PM


Quarter 3 results – good or bad

Expectation was very high, and EPS was 15.28 (diluted), very good compared to 1.59 y-o-y, no?

But Market thought and still thinking otherwise.

Is it that bad? The shock is probably due to this:

PAT is only 35,127 (normalized) compared with Q2 of 48,488. How can that be lower?

Hibiscus is supposed to triple production, revenue is 297,060 compared with 284,404, an increase of 4.4% ONLY?

There were production issues, impairment, but there are two other items that was not normalized:

1)      Depreciation & amortisation, yes it was mentioned as per boxed in orange above but no figures given to set off.

2)      Administrative expenses. Yes, the impairment was backed off, but there still remain a rather large amount of 147,574 - 44,906 = 102,668

Will now attempt to shed some possible quantum / value to these two items.

A)      Depreciation & amortisation (D&A)

-          First, there was no barrels sold for the Kinabalu asset. A cargo was sold just before completion of the deal on 24 Jan 2022 with no quantum given. As per Figure 2 of Corporate and Business Update – 25 May 2022, the estimated quantum to be sold in Q4 amount to about 14,279 boe/d while in Q3, the quantum sold is only 8,863 boe/d.

-          The much lower production of Q3 and D&A of RM 88,556 gives RM 96 per boe.

-          Taking an average of past quarters, the D&A is RM 50.70 per boe. Thus, an equivalent D&A would be RM 46,800 giving a saving of 41,800.

-          Yes, this is very crude but more reflective given the timing issue.

 

B)      Administrative expenses (AE)

-          The adjusted expenses of RM 102,668 is still high.

-          As this is the first quarter after taking over Repsol assets, there might be many one-off expenses. These maybe hand-over cost, lawyer fees, etc. or timing issue.

-          Again, studying past quarters, the AE approximate RM 39 per boe. So, Q3, AE could be RM 36,000K only, giving a saving of RM 66,000.

In total, there is saving of 41,800 + 66,000 = 107,800. Taking a discount of 30%, gives 75,000.

The profit after tax would be 35,000 + 75,000 = 110,000.

 

Production

From data provided by Hibiscus, production for the quarter is about 1,365,306 boe. Barrels sold is only 922,806 leaving 442,500 (less gas volume) in tanks or there about.

Two points to note:

a)       Earlier forecast was too ambitious from 38% to 55% over actual (sold)

b)      Repsol revenue is low because gas was sold at only USD 6.98 per thousand scf (equivalent to USD 41.88 per boe) compared with USD 30.26 (North Sea) = USD 181.56/boe. This resulted in a composite rate of only USD 57/boe despite oil being sold at USD 123/b.

 

Q4 2022

This is a first time that Hibiscus has provided forward production earmarked for sale, Figure 2 of the Corporate and Business Update – 25 May 2022.

The price for gas sold in Malaysia is iffy, so error would be large for revenue from Repsol assets.

BOE sold for April and May 2022 would be accurate as April is "gone" and May is at the last week. Figures for June might change due to unplanned shutdown. Thus, the 2.08 m boe sold would be decent (robust).

 

SUMMARY

In Q3 21 boe sold was 874,944 barrels while Q3 22 only managed 922,806, a gain of only 5.5%. Reasons for the low gain is well covered in the quarterly report and summarized as:

-          Lower uptime in both North Sabah and Anasuria

-          Key equipment shut in Anasuria and will only be repaired in Q3 CY22

-          Kinabalu cargo sold before completion of the Repsol deal

The Q3 22 result, when normalized, resulted in PAT of 35m, a 28% reduction from last year Q3.

As for lower Q3 22 PAT, the normalization ignored: -

1)      depreciation and amortisation – while D&A are of course higher, due to timing, production of Repsol is not for the full (3 months) quarter while one cargo was sold before completion

2)      higher administrative expenses – there might be many one-off expenses for taking over Repsol assets that should be back-off so that comparison would be like for like. Or, again there are timing issue that cause expanses to be incurred despite the curtailed productions or barrels sold.

Rough adjustment based on past quarterly reports could save 107.8m. Taking a discount of 30%, the saving is reduced to 75m. This would result in a PAT of 110m instead of just 35m.

Hibiscus, for the first time, provided forward guidance to barrels that would be sold in the following quarter. This removes much uncertainty in forecasting production. The remaining uncertainty would be the price of oil and gas. While oil price is relatively stable, there is a big difference in gas price that depended on the location of the gas production (UK is USD 30 vs Malaysia USD 7)

Q4 22 forecasted boe to be sold is 2,076,751 compared with Q4 21 of 862,951 (no gas), a 140% increase.

Estimated revenue for Q4 22 is RM 817m compared with 249m, a 228% increase.

Happy investing, PEACE.

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

Labels: HIBISCS
  2 people like this.
 
Raymond Tiruchelvam nice analysis, although i found it a little confusing on the AE part, but in summary BOE sales in Q4 alone (2.076m) will be 45% of the whole FY2022 boe sales (4.656m), and looing at the high price of brent today (may25) at 114, and with expectation that it will remain above 100 till 31 june 2022, hibiscus is expected to make bumper profits?
27/05/2022 11:04 PM
zhangzuode Thank you for reading Raymond.

In arriving at AE, there are many items e.g., engineering studies, reserve assessments (to determine the negative goodwill), admin salaries (directors), and so on that cannot be attributed to operation of particular fields. In this particular quarter, there were many expenses that is related to the takeover of the Repsol assets and is one-off. That is next quarter, these expenses would not be incurred (not recurring). The reserve study (which is expensive) is such one-off. There could be more in the coming quarters as Hibiscus would want to extend the (Repsol) PSC as well as determine what are the projects to be carried out to either maintain current production or further increase production. Again, these studies are not cheap - can run into 10s of millions.
Expenses incurred for these studies and others related to Repsol assets was taken up this quarter while production sold was only for 2 months and none from Kinabalu – timing issue as accountant say.
The “bumper” profits for Q4 was not done as I was pushed for time. Will try to make an estimate when time permit.
Hope the above help and Happy investing, peace.
28/05/2022 10:58 AM
zhangzuode Raymond, my apology on the earlier reply on AE. The studies on possible PSC extension and projects to be executed as well as reserve assessment should all be capitalized.

The expenses (in AE) that will be incurred for the Repsol assets would be the transition cost incurred. This is the Transition Service Agreement (TSA) entered into between Hibiscus and Repsol back in 12 Nov 2021. This TSA will last 9 months from completion of the deal date (25/1/22) and include IT services as well as certain management level manpower. This I believe is calculated based on production and not barrels sold - timing issue.
28/05/2022 5:43 PM
Raymond Tiruchelvam @zhangzuode.... yes IFRS says if the studies are pertaining to future income generation that can be proved to some extent, then can be capitalised and amortised there on. Same with the negative goodwill which is a good thing actually - meaning they paid less than the NTA means they can capitalise the sum, as non distributable reserves, all sounds good, furthermore repsol returns were from an associate and therefore did not show in the revenue, but was present in the PBT, all good... nevertheless the market did not think so.
30/05/2022 4:50 AM
zhangzuode Raymond – “furthermore repsol returns were from an associate and therefore did not show in the revenue”; this is confusing. Care to elaborate, thanks.

The above conflict with page 17 of the Q3 report that clearly state that revenue from repsol assets is accounted under “sale of crude oil and gas”. The total figure (under Group) is cumulative, i.e. 824,196 – 528,142 = 296,054 (exclude project management & interest income).

Yes, I agree that the market looked at the normalized PAT RM 35m and decided it is rubbish. I remember when N Sabah was combined, again with negative goodwill, Hibiscus suffered similar destruction in value.

As negative goodwill is a non-cash item, it does not really bring in any cash. But strictly, it should be viewed as “cash have not gone out”, an equally important if not more important aspect – cash not leaving the company and assets coming in that will bring mountain of cash.

Also, there are big time players that pried on unsuspecting “investors” (day to short term players).
30/05/2022 8:45 AM

Hibiscus - coming BOOM

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Sun, 20 Mar 2022, 6:35 PM


Hibiscus – coming BOOM

ESG behaviour changing?

Hibiscus recently released the March 2022 investors presentation. Below is page 9:

And here is page 12 of the February 2022 investor presentation:

Please note the tables to the right of both pages.

Now, there are more institutional shareholders that exceed 3% holding - AIA, DBS Bank and Kenanga.

So what?

Well, this might be the beginning of institutional investors coming round to the view that they must be invested in the fossil fuel domain despite the ESG mandate. This would cause a re-rating.

Insider movement

Major shareholder – Datuk MICHAEL TANG VEE MUN has acquired 10,792,400 shares since 21 February 2022. And Dato Sri Roushan Arumugam sold 4,774,300 shares.

Datuk Michael interest is via Polo Investment Ltd and Mettiz Capital Sdn Bhd.

Polo invested in Hibiscus at end 2015 (23.5 sen/share) and has not changed its shareholding since. It is estimated the capital appreciation for Polo is 30.3% CAGR. A major shareholder show of confident.

Supply and Demand Balance

At the end of 2021, most analysts were predicting that supply will exceed demand and there will be “BUILD” in inventory.

Now, middle of March, OPEC and EIA data indicated that Q1 2022, supply had not cope with demand and instead of build, there is further “DRAW” of inventory.

Here is EIA for week ending 11 March 2022:

And here is OPEC March 2022 monthly report.

OECD commercial oil stocks continue to draw to 2,677 mb as of January 2022.

The JCPOA deal with Iran is being pursued vigorously as well as Venezuela. It is clear that there is indeed shortage of supply.

Oil price

Thus, oil price, now usd 108, follows the graph provided by VisualizedAnalytics.com, that is, price is a function of the inventory level.

Obviously, the graph provides guidance ONLY.

JP Morgan provided probable Brent oil price for several scenarios as well as The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).

Here is JP Morgan (4/3/22) take on the dynamic of the various scenarios:

Actual dated Brent oil price provided by EIA has been averaged monthly as shown in chart prepared by author together with the average Ringgit-USD exchange.

Based on the above charts, it can be seen that Q1 2022 Brent oil price will average usd 100. For Q2, 2022, the average price is forecasted to be 107, while for July 2022 to end June 2023 (FY 2023), the average price is forecasted at 90.

Revising the oil price, the previous forecast is re-calculated as shown below with FY2023 as well.

Staying conservative, Q3 FY22 and Q4 FY22 oil price used are usd 95 and 102 respectively, and the negative goodwill, RM 36 million, has also been removed (non-cash item). Repsol production upgraded to 17,600 boepd, taking into account recent Maybank Investment Bank report data.

For FY2022, earning per share is about RM 0.193.

FY2023

Preliminary FY2023 earnings was calculated using oil price at usd 85 with Ringgit-usd exchange of 4.15 and matrix slightly better considering improvement made to Repsol fields.

FY2023 earning per share is estimated to be RM 0.358, an 86% increase over FY 2022 with following assumption:

·         a 4% depletion to the production of all fields

·         repaired sub-sea valve

·         field development like side-track / infill wells, water flood

·         Repsol fields brought to Hibiscus productivity standard

 

From the FY2023 estimate, free cash flow (FCF) will be tremendous. As indicated, with huge amount allocated to purchasing equipment as well as intangible asset, estimated FCF might amount to RM680 million or RM 0.33 per share. Generous dividend could be declared.

Do note that no consideration from Sunflower / Marigold was considered as this, even with fast-track, will not deliver first oil until FY2024.

The Australian asset is better sold as it is a distraction. In addition, management has said many times about the high operation cost of Australian oil and gas fields.

Summary

There has been an increase in institutional shareholders – AIA, DBS and Kenanga. Each of them hold more than 3%. It appears, despite ESG, institutional investors view oil & gas equities favourably now. This would cause a re-rating.

Major shareholder, Datuk MICHAEL TANG VEE MUN through Mettiz Capital Sdn Bhd bought 10,792,400 shares this year (so far) while Dato Sri Roushan Arumugam sold 4,774,300 shares. Another major investor in Hibiscus, Polo Investment Ltd (Datuk Michael has interest too) enjoyed a CAGR of 30.3% since buying in at end 2015. This is a vote of confident for Hibiscus by a major shareholder.

Oil supply remains challenged while demand has not plateaued but is robust and growing. This caused inventories in usa and OECD to “draw” to lower level. With the “price to inventory level” chart of VisualizedAnalytics, current price, usd 108 is undemanding.

Going forward, inventory level is estimated to go lower still.

Current geo-political event in Ukraine caused disruption to global oil market. JP Morgan and The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies estimated oil price to remain elevated for 2022 and 2023.

With the latest elevated oil price, Hibiscus earnings (per share) for FY 2022 is estimated to be RM 0.19 while FY2023 might reach RM 0.36COMING BOOM indeed.

PEACE.

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

Labels: HIBISCS
  3 people like this.
 
VenFx Coming boon , big like !
20/03/2022 11:03 PM
zhangzuode Thank you VenFx, have a great week.
21/03/2022 8:15 AM
zhangzuode Another green activist changing attitude: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Activist-Investor-Engine-No-1-Founder-Urges-More-US-Shale-Production.html
21/03/2022 8:55 AM
Nepo Very good analysis, thank you
21/03/2022 9:05 AM
zhangzuode Thanks Nepo.
21/03/2022 10:42 AM
zhangzuode "We are going to need a lot of fossil fuels to mine more metals. Higher oil prices mean higher costs to mining, thus higher metals prices. Thus higher prices to the consumer Is circular, and that's what people are missing...."
https://www.ccjdigital.com/business/article/15289812/the-clean-energy-revolution-depends-on-diesel
24/03/2022 3:49 PM
Let's Gooooo The cost of mining is actually quite low, considering there are lots of technologies to increase the energy efficiency in the mining equipment. Most of the energy consumption actually comes from transporting the ores out of the mining sites as they are usually located relatively far from industrial areas.
24/03/2022 5:14 PM
zhangzuode Thank you for the insight @newguy0801.
25/03/2022 2:31 PM
zhangzuode Diesel shortage : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-diesel-shortage-push-oil-prices-much-higher
25/03/2022 7:08 PM

Hibiscus - What now

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022, 7:13 PM


Hibiscus – what now

Since the last post on 7/11/21, much has happened:

  • Oil price zoomed up from usd 83 to today usd 101 (May 22 contract)
  • Hibiscus price also zoomed up from 91 sen to RM 1.22 (today)
  • Russia invaded Ukraine

In 17/10/21, it was estimated that Hibiscus value - RM 1.46 and FY2022 earning, EPS (fully diluted) might be RM 0.24.

Incorporating the following (from latest reports on Hibiscus web-site):

  1. latest Q2 FY22 result
  2. subsea component failure affecting Anasuria production until Q3 CY22
  3. Completion of the Repsol deal on 24/1/22 with expected production for FY22 at 2.5 million barrels oil equivalent
  4. Management guidance, Anasuria + North Sabah total production for FY22 would 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent
  5. Total daily production is now around 23,000 bpd compared with 8,000 bpd before.

Few comments on above and assumptions made:

  1. Anasuria + North Sabah production
    1. Up to Q2 FY22, 1st half, a total 1.6 mb have been produced. Following Management guidance of total 2.7 mb will mean 2nd half production is 1.1 mb, i.e., 6074 bpd. This is far below the 8,000bpd production and is thus deemed too conservative. Instead about 8,000bpd is used.
    2. The 90,000 barrels over-lift is discounted in the 2nd half production calculation
    3. Hence, total production is about 3 million barrels.
  2. 1st Jan to 23rd Jan production from Repsol asset is not included
  3. Negative goodwill of RM 35.79 million was included in q3 in Repsol’s estimate
  4. While oil price is now around usd 101, this is ignored and conservative price of usd 90 was used for Q3 and 88 for Q4.

This resulted in the total production of about 5.6 million barrels compared with 6.2 million barrels in the October 2021 estimate, a drop of about 15%.

Price of oil used now is about 17% more than that of Oct 2021.

Combined – lower production but slightly higher oil price led to lower earnings of RM 0.172 compared with RM 0.241, a 29% reduction.

Lower profitability was used for Repsol’s estimate to account for lower efficiency and not fully into Hibiscus work pace.

Potential cash from operation is about RM 870 million. Deducting, say, RM 370 million for purchases of equipment and intangibles, leaves RM 500 million, just about clear the RM 519.3 million balance for Repsol (usd 123.65 x 4.2 = 519.33). Potentially, whatever loan from Trafigura might be repaid by the end of this fiscal year.

This estimate is of course crude, but it provides some range of possibilities. One can muck around with the profitability, oil price, etc., to come up with earnings that meet one’s requirement.

What now

Current price (1.22) is about 84% of target price of 1.46.

What should I do: -

  1. take profit, if so, how much – 20%, 50% of Hibiscus holding?
  2. wait till it hit 1.46 then sell 50%
  3. when it hit 1.46, sell all?

It is a dilemma. Have been asking the following questions –

  1. will oil price appreciate further, 110 to 120 range?
  2. From 1.2 to 1.46, there is an appreciation of about 18%
  3. Are there other counters that might give similar returns (+18%) or better going forward (within a year)?

These charts from Hibiscus’s September 2021, December 2021 and February 2022 presentation slides swayed me to take some profit.

In September 2021, Hibiscus price value (market cap) was below Brent oil price. By December 2021, it has more or less caught up that included the surge in October 2021. There was another price surge in February 2022. Missed taking profit in October 2021 and because of FOMO, is taking profit now.

 

Uncertainties in oil price was another factor that pushed towards profit taking. These are the uncertainties:

  1. The nuclear deal with Iran (expected Q1 CY2022)
  2. Steady increasing rigs in USA despite the ESG issues, increased production (expected towards Q2 CY2022)

These uncertainties if and when it becomes facts could push oil price down to between 80 and 85.

So, basically, one bird in hand is better than two in the bushes.

Of course, Russian incursion into Ukraine complicated matters more. Thinking at the beginning is that it will be short – like a week. Now, maybe not - a month?

Winston Churchill said "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies."

As usual day to day, things changed and the behaviour of Hibiscus price is also erratic.

Without the Ukraine war, fundamental supply and demand currently is forecasted to build inventories (i.e., supply exceed demand). Coming EIA’s weekly reports and OPEC monthly reports will give clues to this supply demand dynamic.

Now with war, supply could be less than demand. That is, any disruption to supply from Russia (being one of the three largest oil producers in the world) would be a disaster – causing oil price to spike.

Should oil price is maintained above 100, Hibiscus price might be RM 2??

Another question is what do one do with the profit taken out. Never ending, this ……

 

Peace

 

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

 

  4 people like this.
 
rattynz Very interesting observations.. If lower production of 15% is coupled with higher oil prices of 17% the the nett affect would be canceled and the eps should be similar to your previous estimate I beleive. So a 29% drop doesn't seem to make sense there.. Repsol was also funded from the crps allocation (around RM197 million).. I would have expected, with retained earnings and Q1 and Q2 2022 profits would more than cover the trafigura credit line.. Perhaps you can check the workings as it doesn't quite make sense.. Would love to know the upside if oil remains at 100 for the rest of the year.. It was interesting in May as TP assessment that from every dollar increase (above break even I assume) hibiscus profit ranges from 36 to 54 % (after tax).. So a prolonged hike in oil prices will have a significant impact/upside to their Profitability..
01/03/2022 11:26 PM
rattynz Maybanks TP assessment.. I meant
01/03/2022 11:46 PM
zhangzuode rattynz, thank you for reading.

Between EBIT and Profit before tax, there is finance cost. There is no information on exact amount used from Trafigura's line, 70 million was allowed. This, thus, complicated the calculation. Apology for not showing this. Hope this clarify.

There is another issue that bugged me:
As a non-finance person, my thinking that the NAV in all reports (including the proforma) remains around 70+ sen is most unusual. From my limited business days, whenever I want to increase my revenue, I need to increase my assets to make it happen, that is, my NAV increases (OFC less any liabilities used to increase the assets).

So for Hibiscus, NAV to remains at 70+ sen but with production tripling, it is a miracle. So this coming May quarterly report will be most interesting.
02/03/2022 9:11 AM
wynwyn Can i3 bring back the old interface pl
02/03/2022 9:54 AM
rattynz Yes - the current NAV is based on life before Repsol and before the recent increases in oil price. with next quarters results I expect this to be recalculated and even if you were very conservative it would double. The 70 Million for Trafigura does seem very high. The financing costs for the credit line are low - around 6% PA I believe. So perhaps you might want to consider the interest costs on the credit line only (which may be around RM5 Million). They also have additional cash reserves of RM550 million at Dec 2021 so the credit line is more than covered and I imagine would be a long term liability in their balance sheet.
02/03/2022 10:29 AM
zhangzuode Indeed, 70 million is a bit excessive now come to think about it.

That was my premise when I said Hibiscus buying Hibiscus when the Repsol deal was announced. Should the NAV goes near 1.40, then paying two times book value will mean Hibiscus price could be 2.80

This would mean 17 (earning) / 280 = 6.1% return.
02/03/2022 11:19 AM
zhangzuode Export from Russia grinding to a halt:
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/70-russian-crude-trade-frozen-surgut-again-fails-sell-any-urals-big-tenders
03/03/2022 7:52 AM
zhangzuode Coming catastrophe? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-oil-price-scenarios-one-bad-and-one-catastrophic
04/03/2022 9:05 AM

Oil Price Dynamic

Author: zhangzuode   |  Publish date: Sun, 7 Nov 2021, 2:45 PM


Oil Price – dynamic

Further to my post – Hibiscus buy Hibiscus IV Oil price, here are some dynamic on oil price movement that have been observed recently.

US set oil price

US is the largest oil consumer. Plus, financialization of commodities, US thus set price of oil.

As such it is to the US, where data is in abundance, for a drill down on pricing dynamic. Primarily, the main source of data is from EIA – U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Here is a simplistic view of the dynamic of crude oil supplied to become products for consumers:

  • Crude oil is produced via shale patches, Gulf of Mexico and around USA and they finally flow into STORAGE, mainly commercial (Cushing is just one of many) and or the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
  • There is also import and export of crude oil. Nonetheless, finally, balance of this export and import has to be either stored (BUILD) or deducted (DRAW) from STOCKS.
  • The main (can be said ONLY) user of crude oil is the refineries. In the data world it is known as INPUT to and PRODUCTION from the refineries. And the products are also STORED before being send to end users / consumers. Storing is required to act as a balance between production capability, weather interruption, seasonal use and distribution issues.

 

              

  • There is also import and export of products and this finally also show up in the STOCKS level of the products storage tanks.
  • Finally, to the consumers, the products are supplied (DEMAND).

Based on the foregoing, one only need to monitor:

  1. INPUT to refineries, as this indicates the strength of demand
  2. Products supplied and storage or STOCKS levels. This provide insight to demand
  3. Total storage levels of both crude oil (SPR + commercial) and products. This show how supply is meeting demand.

Let’s look at the refineries crude oil INPUT now:

The oil input is consistent and varies within a tight band over the years. In 2020 the input drop on lock-down. This year there was the Texas freeze and hurricane Ida. Similarly in 2017, hurricane Irma hit around same month causing similar drop in input as refineries where hurricanes “make” landfall had to be shut down and some incurred damage or flooding.

It is clear that oil input is seasonal. Between Week 18 to 36, refineries are working flat out to supply products to consumers that drives all over US – driving season. Around Week 36 to 44 (8 weeks/2 months), input drops. During this period, refineries carry out maintenance or refurbishment. And 2021 is no different. Do note that data reported lag by a week. In the coming weeks, input to refineries is going to increase.

Figure above shows the tight band of gasoline supplied over the previous years. 2020 (blue line) started within the band but then become an outlier once lock-down was declared. 2021 gasoline supplied (demand) is firmly back and within upper limit of the band too.

Diesel supplied did not suffer a drastic drop like that of gasoline in 2020, as it is mainly used for commercial transportation and certain manufacturing that are essential.

Jet fuel is no different to gasoline. Demand still lags but is edging towards the band. Only these three major products (gasoline, diesel & jet fuel) are considered. The other products share similar pattern.

Gasoline stocks (inventory) level is as shown below. It is clear that stocks draw a lot during driving season, despite refineries running flat-out.

From the refinery input, 2021 Texas freeze occurred about week 7 to 11, thus gasoline stocks level dropped correspondingly (near vertical, green line). And similarly, when Hurricane Ida hit around week 35. From both the supply and stocks level, demand for gasoline is back to normal (upper end) and stocks is at the lower end. Thus, demand is strong and supply is just keeping up. Gasoline stocks is now expected to rise to prepare for 2022 driving season.

Similar figures can be made from EIA data for diesel and jet fuel. They tell the same story.

Finally, the Total stocks level of crude oil plus products is as shown:

Total stocks level (green line)  has fallen from 1,980 mb to almost flat around 1,850 mb now. This is despite the build in crude oil. But products draw made the overall Total remaining flat for the past 8 weeks.

From the supplies and storage figures above, it can be said that DEMAND is strong and should remain within the band as per previous years. Average stocks for year 2011 to 2015 is provided, this was the stocks when oil price was last in the 100s. The Total stocks then, was 1,750 mb to 1,810 mb. Current level is ONLY 40 mb to 100 mb from the 11-15 average. Based on current refineries input, these 40mb to 100mb will be used up in no time.

Expectation is that Total stocks level should draw (reduce) towards the 11-15 average in the coming weeks. This could lead to higher oil price going forward, all things being equal.

Below is the average monthly oil price since 2020.

It is a shame that Hibiscus also benefits from the poor RM->US$ exchange (-9%). It makes sense to get US$ bond now. When the RM->US$ exchange normalize, less RM will be required to redeem the bond, that is, if it normalized.

General

News about Cushing low stocks level is just a red-herring, as ultimately, it is the Total stocks level that count.

Recent talk of US, Japan, India and others in a coordinated release of their SPRs crude oil to bring down the price of oil is also another delusion. Refer to the schematic above, and like Cushing, it is just moving crude from one tank to another. There is no net gain in the VOLUME of crude oil at all. FUNDAMENTALLY THERE IS NO CHANGE. If one just looks at commercial crude oil stocks, yes, there will be a build. So, any price dip is an opportunity to add.

It is November now, new rigs added will ONLY materially bring new supply sometime in March 2022. Please do not forget DEPLETION, so net gain in supply could be small.

Support for current to higher oil price

Oil majors 3rd quarter results were impressive. However, despite the large free cash-flow, none of the majors indicated higher CAPEX, rather all said, shares buy-back and or higher dividend.

Here is a brief on shale oil firms result: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Patch-Reports-Blowout-Earnings.html. Again, they are ONLY interested in reducing debts, share buy-back and pay dividends. One, Continental Resources (CLR) planned to buy a Permian field for US$ 3.25B. You would think investors will be happy as it will increase production by 50,000 barrels a day, but instead, its share price dropped 9%. Maybe price paid is too high or shareholders thought that further investment in oil (or gas) production should be stopped due to climate issues? CLR is not the first, there were others also.

Supply (fundamental / structural) going forward would remain constrained.

High gas prices, especially in Europe and Asia would force some consumers to switch from gas to oil. However, this is only temporary until gas prices normalize.

Risk to current high oil price

Cases of Covid 19 in Europe is spiking. Should governments in Europe adopt lock-down again, demand will be cringed.

SEEK TRUTH FROM FACTS

Conclusion

US, being the largest oil consumer at 19.7 mb/d, set oil prices through it more developed financial system.

Data is abundance in US and is primarily sourced from EIA.

The main (or ONLY) user of crude oil is the refineries. Oil input to refineries follows a seasonal pattern. The refineries are now coming out of their maintenance season and will increase input to build up products for next year driving season.

Products supplied to consumers and stocks level gives an insight to current demand. Demand for gasoline and diesel is back to pre-Covid level while jet fuel still lag.

Looking at Total stocks (level) of crude oil (SPR & commercial tanks) plus products stocks provide the best information on how supply is meeting demand. Today Total stocks is near 2011-2015 average stocks, the stocks level when oil price was last around 100s.

Given the above, oil price should trend higher towards end of the year and into first quarter of 2022.

The current spike in Covid 19 cases could temper demand, but switch from gas to oil might mitigate it.

 

Disclaimer:

I wrote this myself without pay. I and my families own Hibiscus shares. This is not an advice to buy / sell Hibiscus or any other equities / securities / assets.

  Jasonn likes this.
 
twynstar Very detailed analysis. Thanks a lot !!
07/11/2021 10:11 PM
zhangzuode Thank you for reading. Hope that it is useful.
10/11/2021 11:35 AM


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