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Author: ahbi   |   Latest post: Mon, 21 Dec 2020, 9:14 AM

 

[转贴]阿笔谈股系列35-浅谈大马糖厂MSM-去油计划

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This article first appeared in Investips.my Blog on May 4, 2020.

 

MSM大马糖厂主要业务为进口原糖(raw sugar)生产refined sugar。

 

Annual Report 2012, page 10

 

进口原糖(raw sugar)占多于80%生产成本(cost of production)。所以原糖价格走势和马币对换率于MSM盈利影响重大。

 

 

 

 

https://www.isosugar.org/prices.php

 

原糖主要生产国为印度,巴西和泰国。

巴西:因原油价格下跌,巴西减少把糖转成ethanol来用做燃料(gasoline and hydrous ethanol)。

印度:因covid-19,Hand sanitizers需求爆增。所以一些印度sugar mill巳经开始生产hand sanitizers和ethanol。

https://www.chinimandi.com/70-companies-including-24-sugar-mills-producing-hand-sanitizers-in-uttar-pradesh/

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/daily-production-of-3-10-lakh-litres-of-hand-sanitiser-begins-in-maharashtra/story-GhfiCoclOLdoM4wAtwyoRM.html

 

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/SanitizerLetter.pdf

泰国:泰国原糖产量应会下降因为天气干燥。

 

 

 

Annual report 2019, page 30

以下是MSM的计划

 

 

 

 

Annual report 2019, page 24

 

Annual report 2019, page 22

 

风险

  1. 高负债(兴建MSM Johor, USD 259M),高finance cost
  2. 马币对换率
  3. New business on condensed milk。

 

催化

原糖(raw sugar)价低于12 cts/lb

 

MSM RM0.585/share, 市值RM411.24M,  Book Value RM2.36/share, P/B 0.25

注:阿笔个人持有该公司股份,但并非该公司董事,顾问或员工。以上投资分析,纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,阿笔恕不负责。

免责声明:以上言论纯属读者分享,并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,怒本网站不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢

21/8/2020: 阿笔个人不再持有该公司股份.

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Labels: MSM

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
MSM 0.625 -0.005 (0.79%) 17,426,000 

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