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Author: kltrader   |   Latest post: Tue, 3 Dec 2019, 4:36 PM

 

Velesto Energy - Rising DCR points to further recovery

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  • Velesto’s NAGA 8 secured a firm 3-year drilling contract worth US$131m from Carigali Hess beginning 2H20 with a 6+6+6 months extension option.
  • We estimate the average DCR is worth US$120k/day which is c.70% higher than contracts secured in 1H19 that fetched US$72k/day.
  • We raise our FY20-22F earnings forecast by 37-11%. The significant jump in DCR reflects the robustness of jack-up rig demand and reaffirms our view on the recovery of the sector.
  • Upgrade to TRADING BUY with higher RM0.43 TP (from RM0.36) based on 1.2x FY19F P/B. We believe the jump in DCR could justify the re-rating on the stock.

NAGA 8 secured new contract

Velesto announced that NAGA 8 secured a drilling contract from Carigali Hess Operating Company (Carigali Hess) with firm value of US$131m (Table 1). The contract is for a 3-year firm period followed by 6+6+6 months extension option beginning in 2H20 at the Block A- 18 of the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area (MTJDA). NAGA 8 is currently serving Hess Malaysia for an 18-month drilling programme ending Aug 2020 at the North Malay Basin. We expect the new charter to begin sometime in 4Q20 as the rig would undergo a periodical SPS survey for 2 months before beginning a new contract.

Higher DCR for NAGA 8

Based on the 3-year firm contract, we estimate the average daily charter rate (DCR) to be worth c.US$120k/day (Table 1). This is c.70% higher than the average DCR of US$72k/day for contracts secured in 1H19. This contract is by far the highest DCR Velesto garnered in recent times, reflecting the robust demand for jack-up rigs. Recall that Petronas noted in the 2019-2021 Activity Outlook that jack-up rig demand is expected to rise to 16-18 rigs (2018: 10-12 rigs).

Raise earnings forecast

We raise our FY20-22F earnings forecast by 37-11% as we believe higher jack-up demand, particularly in SEA region, would lead to sustained high DCR. According to IHS, a global oil and gas information provider, the jackup demand is expected to rise by 7% in 2020 to 405 from 379 in 2019.

Maintain BUY with higher TP of RM0.43

Upgrade Velesto to TRADING BUY with higher TP of RM0.43 (from RM0.36) as we peg higher P/B of 1.2x to FY20F (from 1.0x FY20F P/B). We believe this is fair as the recovery in DCR could turnaround earnings and provide a re-rating catalyst for the stock.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 6 Nov 2019

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Labels: VELESTO

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