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【冷眼专栏】漫漫投资路

Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Sun, 19 Sep 2021, 8:20 PM

 

投资马股看何方 冷眼亲声解答

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SxOuNfEMKM

自去年爆发世纪疫情起,大马股市的走势就如过山车般起起落落,投资者的心情恐怕也是经常忐忑难安。

虽然去年曾经有手套股带动的全民疯股热潮,但今年因为我国抗疫表现失色,加上政局动荡夹击,在一连串的利空夹击下,马股在上半年成为了亚洲区表现最差的股市。

然而,常言道“有危必有机”,著名财经作家,基本面大师冷眼认为,投资者无需太过担忧市场噪音造成的短期波动,只要稳扎稳打坚持价值为主,马股依然不缺投资机会。

另外,投资者最关注的一些问题,如“科技股估值合理吗?”、“手套股疫情后的前景”和“产业股触底了吗?”冷眼也会逐一在视频里亲“声”解答。

CynicalCyan has left a new comment on your post "投资马股看何方 冷眼亲声解答":

Rough translation of Coldeye Fong Siling's PRICELESS video above: 

Disclaimer at 19 seconds. 21 seconds onwards: 

"HOW TO CHOOSE GOOD STOCKS?" 

Coldeye: "You want to make money in stockmarket, good way is to be contrarian. 
People dare not buy, you buy. Now pandemic like more & more serious, a lot of people worry, many stocks nobody buy. Those that buy, (some ) are speculators, they want to earn fast money. This kind of method can't make money. 

If you want to use in stockmarket, can capitalise now those low priced stocks all along fundamental strong type. Then buy at low for long term. What's long term? Long term is 1-3 years. Wait until pandemic over, share price go back. This is steady investing method. You want good dividend, now also good chance, but company must be able to recover. Wait until company slowly go back to pre-pandemic, then you can earn this money. I believe a lot of company has good fundamental, pandemic hit, no profit, even loss, but can make back in future. Some companies cut cost like retrench worker. One to survive, another to be leaner. If company make more money, dividend more in future. Share price recover is realistic prospect. 

But this way can not be fast. You want this month buy next month profit, no way. You must hold 1-2 years. Wait until company bcome stronger, get back on track. So, you now buy, make money chance plenty. This is solid way., but not the type to earn few x your money. If want earn few x your money, it's esp in tech stock, but that is another question". 


"POLITICS DESTROY STOCK PRICE?" 
"Now political instability, I think people got wrong idea. Affect stocks is its economic value, not politics, in long term. Unless the law change fundamental aspects of business, affect profit, then no effect. Look at Filipina or Thailand, always change government, but stockmarket no crash. If got value, share price will come back. 

Macam oil palm stock. Now per ton 4000, price 5 year high. What is oil palm cost? Look at efficienct. Cost around 1500 per tanne. Last 2-3 years, palm profit no good, why not good? Price of palm low. Cost 1500 now sell 4000 , then palm company profit sure good. How it can sustain such business, no one know. If share price havent reflect fundamental, now is buy chance for long term hold. Wait 1-2 years profit out, share price up. If no up, dividend up. Now put bank FD only 2%, if any company future give you 8-10% dividend, why not? Ofc can't bring sudden wealth, I can use oil palm as example, change government no effect. BN lost PN win, stockmarket no effect. Why worry? On other hand, pandemic cause business cant do, then jialat, consequence is big. Then share price will reflect. 
WHAT STOCK CAN BUY, WHAT CANNOT. VERY EASY, FUNDAMENTAL STRONG, GOT RECOVER ABILITY, BUY AND PUT. NOW IS VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY. World no end, pandemic will someday end, now nearing end. Don't feel bad. 

Don't ask me stockmarket will turn out how. Me not good this. My book "Thousand Mountain I Lonely Travel." mentioned, I no dare predict share price. No one can guess share price. We use contrarian mindset. People scared buy, we buy. 

BUY BANKING STOCK STILL NOT LATE? 
bANK stock slowly rise, bcause people now how to calculate. Now why cannot buy bank stock? Dont look at 10 year chart for up or down, use to check pre-pandemic share price, PE ratio. If bank is good, can earn more, can go back to last time level, yo ucan ca;cu;ate. Now you buy wait 1-2 years, no need 3 years, you might even earn 50%. Who is government, bank still need store debt, no need to pay back ah? Worst is over for bank. Now still not too late to buy good bank, not those high risk type, not those depend on political to determine loan. Buy normal steady bank, calculate, buy and hold.

ANT EARN FAST MONEY, DON'T ASK COLDEYE. 
Coldeye not like that, cant teach you fast. 
If listen to me, buy and hold, dont be affected by politics, we cold eye watch by the side. Retailers got not much say, only can first ask, if change government, how does it affect this industry and business? If not effect, ignore noise and use fundamentals. Use figures and facts , not imagination or opinions which are unreliable. If want ot buy, still don't know how. Then, use Coldeye new Book Ultimate Formula before investing. 
 
 
TECH STOCK HIGH RISK? 
I won't comment on this, coz I got big rule. Don't understand, don't buy. Old age, drawback is insufficient knowledge on tech. But don't use my view to view stocks, because economy growing, tech industry is fastest growth. Sometimes, tech stocks can be overlued lah. But if can fulfil expectations, got some will fulfill, but not all, so must be careful in selecting, be strict, don't have blind optimism. " 
 
GLOVE STOCKS HAVE TURNED COLD? 
Why glove make so much money, but share price drop? Bcoz glove is good growth industry. 1985, within few years, from 10+ companies increased to 250+ companies. The bigger it grows, the more people do. This industry's competition is not what you think- good sales can earn big money. Not like that. From that time, small glove companies graually bankrupt. Later left around 50+ companies, remaining are the strong ones like TG, Harta, etc, so they earn big money bcoz got big capital. 
 
Now glove industry earn big money, a lot of people see, many people join. Now demand is normalising with pandemic situation, expecting glove demand will return to last time. Follow last time history, growth is 8-11% growth. 
 
Annother important factor is CHina, see businesss opportunity keep expanding. Now got TG, Harta, Kossan, also expanding, supply should slowly be more than emand. Profit may drop back to last time. Now share price don't move up make sense. Using business viewpoint, can it create value for shareholders? Listen carefuly, can it create value? If can, share price will rise or dividend will rise. If cannot, then be careful.
 
 
 

Posted by CynicalCyan at Sep 20, 2021 7:03 PM

【南洋冷眼独家专访】马股“疫”蹶不“政” 乱市稳中求胜

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  3 people like this.
 
CynicalCyan Rough translation of Coldeye Fong Siling's PRICELESS video above:

Disclaimer at 19 seconds. 21 seconds onwards:

"HOW TO CHOOSE GOOD STOCKS?"

Coldeye: "You want to make money in stockmarket, good way is to be contrarian.
People dare not buy, you buy. Now pandemic like more & more serious, a lot of people worry, many stocks nobody buy. Those that buy, (some ) are speculators, they want to earn fast money. This kind of method can't make money.

If you want to use in stockmarket, can capitalise now those low priced stocks all along fundamental strong type. Then buy at low for long term. What's long term? Long term is 1-3 years. Wait until pandemic over, share price go back. This is steady investing method. You want good dividend, now also good chance, but company must be able to recover. Wait until company slowly go back to pre-pandemic, then you can earn this money. I believe a lot of company has good fundamental, pandemic hit, no profit, even loss, but can make back in future. Some companies cut cost like retrench worker. One to survive, another to be leaner. If company make more money, dividend more in future. Share price recover is realistic prospect.

But this way can not be fast. You want this month buy next month profit, no way. You must hold 1-2 years. Wait until company bcome stronger, get back on track. So, you now buy, make money chance plenty. This is solid way., but not the type to earn few x your money. If want earn few x your money, it's esp in tech stock, but that is another question".


"POLITICS DESTROY STOCK PRICE?"
"Now political instability, I think people got wrong idea. Affect stocks is its economic value, not politics, in long term. Unless the law change fundamental aspects of business, affect profit, then no effect. Look at Filipina or Thailand, always change government, but stockmarket no crash. If got value, share price will come back.

Macam oil palm stock. Now per ton 4000, price 5 year high. What is oil palm cost? Look at efficienct. Cost around 1500 per tanne. Last 2-3 years, palm profit no good, why not good? Price of palm low. Cost 1500 now sell 4000 , then palm company profit sure good. How it can sustain such business, no one know. If share price havent reflect fundamental, now is buy chance for long term hold. Wait 1-2 years profit out, share price up. If no up, dividend up. Now put bank FD only 2%, if any company future give you 8-10% dividend, why not? Ofc can't bring sudden wealth, I can use oil palm as example, change government no effect. BN lost PN win, stockmarket no effect. Why worry? On other hand, pandemic cause business cant do, then jialat, consequence is big. Then share price will reflect.
WHAT STOCK CAN BUY, WHAT CANNOT. VERY EASY, FUNDAMENTAL STRONG, GOT RECOVER ABILITY, BUY AND PUT. NOW IS VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY. World no end, pandemic will someday end, now nearing end. Don't feel bad.

Don't ask me stockmarket will turn out how. Me not good this. My book "Thousand Mountain I Lonely Travel." mentioned, I no dare predict share price. No one can guess share price. We use contrarian mindset. People scared buy, we buy.

BUY BANKING STOCK STILL NOT LATE?
bANK stock slowly rise, bcause people now how to calculate. Now why cannot buy bank stock? Dont look at 10 year chart for up or down, use to check pre-pandemic share price, PE ratio. If bank is good, can earn more, can go back to last time level, yo ucan ca;cu;ate. Now you buy wait 1-2 years, no need 3 years, you might even earn 50%. Who is government, bank still need store debt, no need to pay back ah? Worst is over for bank. Now still not too late to buy good bank, not those high risk type, not those depend on political to determine loan. Buy normal steady bank, calculate, buy and hold.
20/09/2021 6:57 PM
CynicalCyan WANT EARN FAST MONEY, DON'T ASK COLDEYE.
Coldeye not like that, cant teach you fast.
If listen to me, buy and hold, dont be affected by politics, we cold eye watch by the side. Retailers got not much say, only can first ask, if change government, how does it affect this industry and business? If not effect, ignore noise and use fundamentals. Use figures and facts , not imagination or opinions which are unreliable. If want ot buy, still don't know how. Then, use Coldeye new Book Ultimate Formula before investing.


TECH STOCK HIGH RISK?
I won't comment on this, coz I got big rule. Don't understand, don't buy. Old age, drawback is insufficient knowledge on tech. But don't use my view to view stocks, because economy growing, tech industry is fastest growth. Sometimes, tech stocks can be overlued lah. But if can fulfil expectations, got some will fulfill, but not all, so must be careful in selecting, be strict, don't have blind optimism. "

GLOVE STOCKS HAVE TURNED COLD?
Why glove make so much money, but share price drop? Bcoz glove is good growth industry. 1985, within few years, from 10+ companies increased to 250+ companies. The bigger it grows, the more people do. This industry's competition is not what you think- good sales can earn big money. Not like that. From that time, small glove companies graually bankrupt. Later left around 50+ companies, remaining are the strong ones like TG, Harta, etc, so they earn big money bcoz got big capital.

Now glove industry earn big money, a lot of people see, many people join. Now demand is normalising with pandemic situation, expecting glove demand will return to last time. Follow last time history, growth is 8-11% growth.

Annother important factor is CHina, see businesss opportunity keep expanding. Now got TG, Harta, Kossan, also expanding, supply should slowly be more than emand. Profit may drop back to last time. Now share price don't move up make sense. Using business viewpoint, can it create value for shareholders? Listen carefuly, can it create value? If can, share price will rise or dividend will rise. If cannot, then be careful.
20/09/2021 7:03 PM
CynicalCyan The above posts of mine is my translation of the IMPORTANT video above.

Not perfect, but the gist is there.
20/09/2021 7:04 PM


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