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【冷眼专栏】全民拥股

Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 May 2020, 12:01 AM

 

两只黑天鹅触发浩劫/冷眼(上篇)

Author:   |    Publish date:


2020年4月06日

 

两只黑天鹅,触发了全球的一场浩劫——人命的丧失和经济的损失。

在欧洲人的心目中,数千年来,都认为天鹅是白色的,直到约900年前,一名荷兰探险家,无意中在澳洲西部发现一只黑天鹅,才彻底打破了“天鹅都是白色的”的印象。从此以后,黑天鹅被西方人用以形容突发事件,这类事件有三个特征:①在发生之前,完全没有痕迹,几乎是凭空而出;②对历史有重大的影响;③事后可以找出根源。

黑天鹅未必是灾难

黑天鹅事件未必是灾难的,凡是具备上述三特征的事件都可称为黑天鹅事件,第一次世界大战、9·11世贸大厦被恐袭、电灯电话的发明、手机的出现、互联网的产生都是典型的黑天鹅事件。(见Nassim Nicholas Taleb的著作“The Black Swan”)。

一只黑天鹅,已足以翻天覆地,此次两只黑天鹅同时出现,触发了人类一场世界性的浩劫,是谁也没法预料得到的。

这两只黑天鹅,就是冠状病毒病瘟疫和石油市场的崩溃。

中国人忧患意识深

在瘟疫之战中,中国为什么会做得最好?

答案是:中国数百年来面对无数的天灾人祸,受尽凌辱,忧患意识特深,一见灾难冒现,就如惊弓之鸟,立刻采取最严厉的行动应付。

为什么欧美面对浩劫,手忙脚乱?

我的看法是:

①欧美都养尊处优太久,养成了“太子爷”的心态,没有忧患意识,疏于防患,反应迟钝。

②此次打击最大,死人最多的意大利、西班牙、法国和英国都是过去的殖民地宗主国,靠搜刮殖民地的财产创造了优裕的生活,缺乏应变的能力,只有德国,在二战的废墟中崛起,政府和人民都有警惕心,故在此次瘟疫中死亡人数较少。

③意大利、西班牙和法国都是文化艺术深厚的国家,人民崇尚艺术,爱好自由,对灾难的防患及发生后的应对,都是最弱的。

④在欧洲中,意大利、西班牙和法国都是濒临地中海的国家,气候温和,面对严寒气候的欧洲其他国家人民,都喜欢到这3个国家旅游,瘟疫的传染特快,这3国的医疗无法应付,只好听天由命。

为世人带来何启示

⑤在冠病中死亡的多数是老人,这3个国家最多寿星公,在医疗不足以应付突变时,只好放弃没有经济价值的老人,以保住有家庭负担,社会赖以创业的中、青年人。许多在老人院颐养天年的老人集体死亡,实是人间惨剧。

⑥美国死亡人数剧增,是因领导人傲慢自大,故自食其果。

这两个黑天鹅事件,给我们这些发展中国家的老百姓带来什么启示呢?且待明天分解

 

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20200406/【冷眼】两只黑天鹅触发浩劫上篇/

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  5 people like this.
 
moneySIFU 时隔一年半,冷眼前辈终于开始活跃了
07/04/2020 9:39 AM
moneySIFU 期待明天冷眼前辈下一篇文章
07/04/2020 9:40 AM
enning22 冷眼懂个屁。这是一场阴谋发动的“偷袭珍珠港事件”,三国演义中“黄盖苦肉计,引发火烧连环船事件”。“偷袭珍珠港“会有遭受反击的。后果严重。
07/04/2020 11:31 AM
enning22 这样多黑天鹅,笑死人。
07/04/2020 11:33 AM
klmly2 不看还好,看了更冷眼x10
07/04/2020 11:35 AM
bsngpg 送给上面口无遮栏的那位:

一次苏东坡和佛印和尚在林中打坐,日移竹影,一片寂然,很久了,佛印对苏东坡说:“观君坐姿,酷似佛祖。”苏东坡心中欢喜,看到佛印的褐色袈裟透迄在地,对佛印说:“上人坐姿,活像一堆牛粪。”佛印和尚微笑而已。苏东坡心想这回让佛印和尚吃了一记闷亏,暗暗得意,禁不住悄悄告诉苏小妹,想不到苏小妹却说:“哥哥你又输了。佛家有经云:心有所想,目有所见。佛印心中有佛,所以看你像佛。而你看他像牛粪,是因为你心中只有牛粪呀!”
07/04/2020 11:51 AM
3101575000 他的文章很吸引人.可是我也得了一个很大的教训;因为我看他有买SOLUTION这股,我就跟着买.结果亏最多的就是股.哈哈当然不是他错,是我自己选错咯!
07/04/2020 12:44 PM
bsngpg He wrote in one of his books that if winning investment is more frequent than loss, we will be great in equity market in long run. He also wrote that one should learn from the loss experience and try the best to prevent the same mistake.

I bought Hevea as him, i lose. I bought Johotin and FPI as him, I make good profit, on paper only as still holding. Good luck.
07/04/2020 1:12 PM
moneySIFU i3原来已经成为这样的平台,充满着那么多自大无知的人,以为批判别人就可以衬得自己”很有料”?

支持@bsngpg
07/04/2020 1:15 PM
enning22 实事求是,真话直说。没什么问题,不要虚伪,狡猾,掩盖事实,到处吹嘘。冷眼个人欠缺国际关系的问题的专业研究。不知道,本为平常事。
07/04/2020 3:18 PM
Up_down 黃金和牛糞在股市不斷地演變。同一個股,有時候看起來是牛糞,有時候像黃金,有時候似乎是一堆土。是心態還是因緣呈現不同的狀況……
07/04/2020 6:09 PM
enning22 市场经济嘛,当然根据市场的供需因素改变而变动。和个人心态无关。
07/04/2020 6:40 PM
moneySIFU 也是的,冷眼懂个屁,他哪里懂这是一场阴谋,他错在他没把事情联系到“珍珠港”,也错在没想到"黄盖和连环船", 确确实实没把“事实”说出来,不止掩盖事实,还到处吹嘘,没说到你的心坎中的那个套路,他被你骂是应该的。

不知道,本为平常事,知道了,还是你最棒!

感觉很像在咖啡店的议论,没有对错的问题,只要谁够大声,谁就有理。谁能说的越精彩,谁就是黄道。真理不重要,爽就对了。

--------------------------------------------------
enning22 冷眼懂个屁。这是一场阴谋发动的“偷袭珍珠港事件”,三国演义中“黄盖苦肉计,引发火烧连环船事件”。“偷袭珍珠港“会有遭受反击的。后果严重。
07/04/2020 11:31 AM

enning22 实事求是,真话直说。没什么问题,不要虚伪,狡猾,掩盖事实,到处吹嘘。冷眼个人欠缺国际关系的问题的专业研究。不知道,本为平常事。
07/04/2020 3:18 PM
07/04/2020 7:52 PM
moneySIFU 对啦,上两个星期股市跌只是“股票多人卖”的原因,加上“买的人少”的事实,就那么简单,纯粹的“市场的供需”,跟人心(恐惧和贪婪)无关。

需求高,起
需求低,跌

投资股票,实在是太简单了,不需要去读什么书啦,去咖啡店就好了,或者听下面这位老哥的话准没错,定!

-------------------
enning22 市场经济嘛,当然根据市场的供需因素改变而变动。和个人心态无关。
07/04/2020 6:40 PM
07/04/2020 8:01 PM
enning22 你对市场经济的理解,也是错误。市场经济是关于整体宏观/微观经济问题,不是股票市场某天某日的卖力和卖力的简单问题。阁下理解这样容易陷入误区。真是九不搭八,鸡和鸭讲。得罪了。
07/04/2020 8:22 PM
Up_down 股市一直在眾多因緣之下而呈現不同的狀況.每個人解讀也有所不同,在同一個候能呈現三種不一樣的結論就是黃金、牛糞和土堆.
07/04/2020 8:26 PM
Up_down 在牛市的狀況下, 一個好故事能把牛糞和工堆變成黃金。不但如此,在熊市回彈的想像力下,市場也能把牛糞和工堆變成黃金。
07/04/2020 8:38 PM
CharlesT As long as u make money...that is everything in stock mkt
07/04/2020 8:43 PM
CharlesT Stock mkt is never a maths or science
07/04/2020 8:44 PM
moneySIFU 呃... 这个是你说的,我只是再重复陈述你的言论。也许你隐藏在内里的寓意太深远,没有达到你心里的那把尺吧。

-------------------
enning22 市场经济嘛,当然根据市场的供需因素改变而变动。和个人心态无关。
07/04/2020 6:40 PM
07/04/2020 8:49 PM
enning22 for making money in stock market,you need to read market trend correctly, and also stocks valuation corrently, otherwise , like the saying go:--- :bull can make money, bear can make money, only the pigs , always got slaughtered.
07/04/2020 8:50 PM
moneySIFU Well said, Up_down, agreed to you.

If everyone thinking the same, it would be very boring. That's the beauty of stock market, the one who can consistently deliver results for his/her investment are the one correct.

---------------------------
Up_down 股市一直在眾多因緣之下而呈現不同的狀況.每個人解讀也有所不同,在同一個候能呈現三種不一樣的結論就是黃金、牛糞和土堆.
07/04/2020 8:26 PM
07/04/2020 8:58 PM
Bursawise 誰能夠说那只股能涨的?
07/04/2020 9:01 PM
CharlesT Earning 22, i like that..

Bull can make money bear also can make money...only pigs always get slaughtered..

Lol
07/04/2020 9:01 PM
CharlesT I normally make more during bear mkt...
07/04/2020 9:02 PM
Up_down Pigs get slaughter because they don’t know they are being pigs in the market.
The point is how we lead (educate constantly) ourselves to interpret a situation which has a different conclusion with majority of the investors.
07/04/2020 9:10 PM
CharlesT Not many can cari makan fm stock mkt...
07/04/2020 9:23 PM
CharlesT How many of you felt excited io fear 2 weeks ago??
07/04/2020 9:24 PM
Up_down Feeling excited doesn’t mean that we would take action to buy during the fear period. Lolz
07/04/2020 9:31 PM
Up_down Cari makan in stock market is not easy but also not that really difficult. It’s whether we can stand with the losses that keep happening especially to a trader. It’s no ending suffering until we are willing let it go nicely. Life is just like that in the stock market. No right or wrong at the time of making a decision ...play probability most of the time.
07/04/2020 9:42 PM
CharlesT True also...lol
07/04/2020 9:42 PM
probability wei...why you all dont talk about corona anymore..
07/04/2020 9:59 PM
Up_down Probability. Coronavirus is no more an interesting topic to us to make money now . We have to move beyond coronavirus. No mater how, we have to live together with the virus at least in the next 6 months.
07/04/2020 10:09 PM
Keyman188 "People have to remember that, if you wait around for these theme parks (Disney Theme Park) to go back to full scale, up and running, with everything, all the people coming back, the stocks will have already bounced,” Maley added. “Always remember that the stocks always bounce long before the fundamentals go back to normal.” 


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/disney-shares-are-a-buy-if-they-fall-to-this-level-technical-analyst-says.html?&qsearchterm=matt maley



^^^I love this Fund Manager comments.......
07/04/2020 10:14 PM
Keyman188 Humanity Perception & Right.............  

Now I know why Warren Buffet always Warren Buffet.....No matter sunny day or rainy day...  

Now I know why farmers always farmers...No matter drought season or inundation incident...  


** In fact I fall in love this title......  

Why "A" Students Work for "C" Students and Why "B" Students Work for the GovernGovernment - author by Robert T. Kiyosaki  


^^ So "C" students Work for "Who".....!!!!!!
07/04/2020 10:16 PM
Keyman188 despite "orang tua" ini only small potato....

But at least what I know & learned from past, history can't changed but history always can repeat....
07/04/2020 10:18 PM
Keyman188 Fund allocation... 

35% of investment fund - during range 1200 ~ 1300 

35% of investment fund - during range 1050 ~ 1200 

30% of investment fund - during below 1050............... 


Example :- 

Assumption investment fund : $ 200,000 

During 1200 ~ 1300 lvl, intend to purchase 5 Co. (35% of total investmet funds allocation) 

Co.A @ 2.00 = allocation of $ 18,500 = 9,200 units 

Co.B @ 1.70 = allocation of $ 15,500 = 9,100 units 

Co.C @ 1.50 = allocation of $ 14,000 = 9,300 units 

Co.D @ 1.30 = allocation of $ 12,000 = 9,200 units 

Co.E @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 10,000 = 9,000 units 


If index further decelerated to 1050 ~ 1200 lvl, then another 35% of total investment funds allocation 

Co.A @ 1.50 = allocation of $ 19,000 = 12,600 units 

Co.B @ 1.30 = allocation of $ 16,500 = 12,700 units 

Co.C @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 14,000 = 12,700 units 

Co.D @ 0.90 = allocation of $ 11,500 = 12,700 units 

Co.E @ 0.70 = allocation of $ 9,000 = 12,800 units 


If index further decelerated below 1050, then balance 30% of total investment funds allocation 

Co.A @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 19,000 = 17,200 units 

Co.B @ 0.90 = allocation of $ 15,500 = 17,200 units 

Co.C @ 0.70 = allocation of $ 12,000 = 17,100 units 

Co.D @ 0.50 = allocation of $ 8,500 = 17,000 units 

Co.E @ 0.30 = allocation of $ 5,000 = 16,600 units 


## So total share holding & average price for each company :- 

Co.A = $ 56,220 / 39,000 units = $ 1.4415 

Co.B = $ 47,460 / 39,000 units = $ 1.2169 

Co.C = $ 39,890 / 39,100 units = $ 1.0202 

Co.D = $ 31,890 / 38,900 units = $ 0.8198 

Co.E = $ 23,840 / 38,400 units = $ 0.6208 


%% At the end, the final average price of each company almost lower than the price during 1050 ~ 1200 index level 

@@ This is illustration & reference only....
07/04/2020 10:24 PM
Up_down We can’t discount the probability of the share prices to go down further after the company has announced their QR. There are many counters in Bursa. It doesn’t mean that all would be effected badly with poor outlook prospects. I am more interested with what US government would do in order to rescue the recessions or counter the unemployment more than 20 million in next few weeks.
07/04/2020 10:24 PM
Keing Ann 你看他购买SOLUTION这个股,你却没看他购买比例
07/04/2020 10:29 PM
Keyman188 Please be remembered, don't ever never fight with Fed + IMF + ECB Aid....

If you look at this round "Helicopter Aid" announced by Fed then you know, all "Big Boys" intend to save equities market + economic 1st then rescue health crisis by later vaccine diagnosis...

If come back to Malaysia market, we also have "Big Boys" can rescue the market....
07/04/2020 10:29 PM
CharlesT Thats y Tan Teng Boo likely not going to c his target klci 600 point in his life
07/04/2020 10:31 PM
CharlesT Again....lol
07/04/2020 10:31 PM
CharlesT We c 11 years of bull run fm 2009..not great depression 1929 as many experts anticipated so during that time..
07/04/2020 10:33 PM
CharlesT C how long covid 19 will drag..
07/04/2020 10:34 PM
Up_down KLCI index is heavily manipulated by local funds. We are more hardworking than him through focusing in individual company rather than koyang kaki waiting index drop below 1k.
07/04/2020 10:36 PM
CharlesT Got QE no worries...mayb worry on the bubbles later only
07/04/2020 10:42 PM
Up_down 1998 was more or less regional financial crisis popped by hedge funds from western countries. This year is entirely different as taiko US leading the way to pump unlimited funds into the market.
07/04/2020 10:46 PM
Lyo82 Talk is cheap..
That is the reason why a lot people never think carefully before talking.
08/04/2020 9:32 AM
laychee Now it is just a question of how unlimited QE can affect the US stock market.

This is the first time unlimited QE is used at this so early phase.

Maybe all the PEs will be given an extra 10 boost.

PE of 20 may be considered cheap with this Trump factor.
08/04/2020 9:36 AM
Junichiro In the 2008, a year later after QE1, the Fed started QE2, which is in fact a devaluation of the USD.

This round, what choice does the Fed have ? My take is that the US will devalue the USD to make its exports cheaper in terms of other currencies. Emerging markets, commodities ... would probably go up.

Fed will forget about normalizing its balance sheet. It is impossible to do that even before this pandemic.
08/04/2020 9:43 AM


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