Highlights

【冷眼专栏】全民拥股

Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 May 2020, 12:01 AM

 

十年一遇投资机会/冷眼(下篇)

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为了遏止冠状病毒病的扩散,保护人命的安全,我们一定要遵行政府实施的行动管控令,留在家里。

我国经济受到冲击,企业界,尤其是雇用员工最多的中小型企业,受到严重打击,《南洋商报》3月26日封面版的一个标题“现金不流快断气”,令人怵目惊心,试想,万一管控令一再延长,企业真的断气,被迫裁员,员工失业,若财务基础变弱,家人生活怎么办?真得不堪设想。

发展中国家的政府已没有照顾社会中弱势群体的能力,我们作为第三世界的老百姓,除了设法自己照顾自己之外,别无他法。

受薪者尽早做两手准备

所以,受薪者一定要有忧患意识,提早为家庭和自己的晚年生活作好准备,这种准备工作,越早开始越好。受薪者这种准备工作,可以双管齐下,一方面努力增值,提升自己的工作能力,这是对职业的最佳保障,一方面一定要学习投资,为自己建立一份被动式的收入,这份被动式收入,应该跟着职龄及收入,逐步提升,到退休时,数目达到财务自由之境,使退休生活有足够的保障。

对普通受薪者来说,建立被动式收入最普通及较易做到的,是投资产业和股票。

无论是投资于产业或股票,都要把握适当的时机,才能加速个人财富的增长速度,早日达到财务自由的水平。

无论是那一种投资,投资者都需花精神和时间去研究和思考,并且不断的累积经验,才有希望做得较为成功。我一向专注于股票,所以只能在这方面跟大家分享心得,至于产业投资,当然也是一条很好的投资管道,我留给有识之士去提供意见,我就不置喙了。

股票投资要成功,投资一定要在开始时就设定终极目标,就是借投资股票累积财富,由小至大,到退休时达到财务自由,使晚年生活有足够的保障。我一向主张投资而非投机,是因为投机很难达到累积财富的目的。

在投资的漫长过程中,投资者一定要时时刻刻记住:你是在做生意,只是你没有去管理这盘生意而已。

你没有参与管理这盘生意,是因为你的股份太小,没有达到“话事”的水平,另一个原因是你也没有管理这盘生意的能力,作为一个受薪者,你如参股的是与你的职业完全无关的生意,所以你是外行人,没能力管理这盘生意,所以你把这盘生意交给专业人士替你管理经营,赚了钱之后按比例分红(股票)给你。

整个概念,就是这么简单,但股市中人90%以上忘记了这一点,走上歪路,自然无法达成累积财富的目标。

_@Archive_KL08_290617_BURSA_600x315

反向投资回酬超越大市

股票投资要取得超越大势的回酬,就一定要采取反向投资策略,道理很简单,既然股票就是公司的股份,则投资的成本越低,回酬越高,所以,“入股”(买进股份)的价格越低,则回本越快。

在别的投资管道中,投资者的“入股”成本,很少有跟价值相差很大的,比如产业,价值100万令吉的屋子,你可能因为屋主急于脱售,而以低于市值的价格买到手,但股票市场则不是这样,明明值得3令吉的股票,由于股市崩溃,投资者惊慌失措,你竟能以1令吉甚至更低的价格买到,这一方面是卖家情绪化,信心崩溃,一方面是因为对有关企业没有认识,或是太短视。

所以,在股市中,以超低价格买进股份(股票)的机会,比别的投资管道(如产业)高得多。

半世纪投资才遇到4次

这种机会10年才出现一次,在我50年的投资生涯中,这是第四次。

第一次是在1987年,原产品齐齐暴跌触发熊市;第二次是在1998年,在南亚货币风暴引发大熊市,吉隆坡指数由1300点跌至260点;第三次是在2008年,美国次贷风暴掀起全球金融海啸!这些大熊市很神奇的是每10年发生一次,故目前这第四次应该落在2018年,投资界的大佬及经济学家,在此之前已发出警告,说此次的熊市将比30年代华尔街崩溃引发的世界大萧条更加惨烈。

2018年来了又去,竟然平安无事,当城市中人松懈下来时,两只黑天鹅竟在鼠年伊始时降临——冠病和油市崩溃,形成全球性浩劫。

在过去的熊市中,人们所损失的是财富,此次则性命不保,难怪人们的恐惧超过过去的所有灾难。

这场战争,比人对人之战更加难打,因为病毒不但小到肉眼看不见,而且是天敌(至今没有特效药),又是行踪飘忽,随时会攻击人类。

股票投资,在平安无事的岁月,要取得超常的回报,要有技巧、智慧、经验、眼光和快捷的行动,谈何容易,在目前这样的熊市中,只要两样就够了——眼光和胆识,眼光是从芸芸众股中,相中最有潜能的股票,胆识是要克服恐惧心。

股市危机捞金须有胆色

受薪者一定要有冒风险的胆识,充分利用股市危机,提高年均复利增长率,以加速财富的增长速度。多数受薪者在退休时无法达到财务自由之境,年均复利增长率过低是主因。把钱存在银行的定期存款年利3.5%,以复利计算,也要20年才能增加一倍(1000令吉增至2000令吉),怎能达到财务自由呢?所以只听过有投资致富的人,没听过有靠定存利息致富的人,富人与穷人的分别就在于富人利用别人为他创富,穷人为别人创富。

两只黑天鹅催生了一场浩劫,股市受重创,制造了10年才出现一次的投资良机,苏州过了没船搭,投资者如果错过了,恐怕又要再等10年,人生有几个有用的10年呢?所以一定要充分利用来创富。我写本文只为提醒大家,不要因为恐惧而消极对待股市,这样会错过投资良机。

股市还有下跌的空间,大家无须迫不及待的下手,应耐心等到投资者一致悲观绝望,股价跌至令人难以置信的水平时,才是下手的最佳时刻。

https://www.enanyang.my/?p=1388077

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  4 people like this.
 
moneySIFU 先见之明?还是井底蛙望天?

4次股灾+50年投资经验 = 懂个屁?
投资所得过亿 = 笑死人?

———————————————
股市还有下跌的空间,大家无须迫不及待的下手,应耐心等到投资者一致悲观绝望,股价跌至令人难以置信的水平时,才是下手的最佳时刻。
08/04/2020 12:31 AM
moneySIFU 谁才是那个井底蛙?
08/04/2020 12:31 AM
value88 This article came out yesterday but Bursa has rebounded since end Mar'20, and Cold Eyes still asking us to wait for the bottom ? The bottom already passed lar.

This Coronavirus scare is differ from 2008 financial crisis that needs longer time to pass. When Europe and US's number of confirmed case per day starts to reduce, the stock market starts to recover. The market does not need to wait till vaccine is found or all the dusts settled. Remember, stock market is always forward-looking.
08/04/2020 8:49 AM
Keyman188 "People have to remember that, if you wait around for these theme parks (Disney Theme Park) to go back to full scale, up and running, with everything, all the people coming back, the stocks will have already bounced,” Maley added. “Always remember that the stocks always bounce long before the fundamentals go back to normal.”


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/disney-shares-are-a-buy-if-they-fall-to-this-level-technical-analyst-says.html?&qsearchterm=matt



^^^I love this Fund Manager comments.......
08/04/2020 8:53 AM
moneySIFU If look around the world, has this virus pandemic over?

Some think yes some think otherwise. We'll see who’s right who’s wrong then.

You can express disagreement and act accordingly for your money, pls do more research and study on individual company that you about to or already invest, truly hope all make money regardless whatever you think.
08/04/2020 9:59 AM
enning22 所谓两个黑天鹅,其实是人造的。双方博弈,得看柺点。这是无法精准掌握的。唯一方法,做averaging 的考量。全球工业供应链,会重新组装。这个选择是比较有利的。
08/04/2020 10:45 AM
Harold Huong Malaysia Stock recovery very fast ne
Many Ikan Bilis making a lot of money from it
Hardly to drop as this year is US election year
Uncle T will do anything to protect US and his interests
08/04/2020 12:08 PM
lambsauce worst has yet to surfaced
wait till US and China released more ugly economic data
then the market further slides more
08/04/2020 5:47 PM
CharlesT Sifu Cold Eye was one of the very rare bullish investor during End 2008/Early 2009 while many were worried The Great Depression 1929 could come back then

He was proven correct...

Now he is very bearish....maybe he is getting older...anyway his last 5 years results was so so....
09/04/2020 5:53 AM
CharlesT Really missed him during the good old days when he promoted n predicted correctly on palm oil counters (2000+) n property counters (2011/2012 I think)...also on Hevea...
09/04/2020 5:55 AM
Up_down See how crude oil to perform in next month after enjoying the rebound rally party.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/no-place-to-go-oil-storage-filling-up-amid-collapsing-demand-excess-production-57865154
09/04/2020 10:21 AM
CharlesT Fm this article we knew he missed the bottom in Mac...
09/04/2020 1:01 PM
CharlesT Anyway whoever managed to buy 2 weeks ago should easily make 50% or more now...

Some of the cw i missed move up few hundred percents...
09/04/2020 1:03 PM
Up_down It takes 2 weeks only to fill up most of the storage capacity. Demand slumped more than expectations. See what would happen another 2 weeks.
21/04/2020 6:12 PM
AlfI3 Weak sentiment was lifted when USA announced to issue unlimited Bonds & QE. These r purely man made sentiment. D real mkt reactions r yet to emerged where severe jobless & unemployment rate claw up soon. Watch out for it & good luck guys
07/05/2020 11:01 PM


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