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Felicia Sharing

Author: FeliciaWong   |   Latest post: Wed, 16 Sep 2020, 6:12 PM

 

Top Glove (TOPGLOV): How To Play The 4Q Result?

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1. Sifu told me to watchout for tomorrow 4Q result for Top Glove.

2. He said anything below RM700m is bad for share price - it should decline to below RM7.50 if this happen

3. But if it increase above RM800m - share price should increase above RM8.60

The value of a company depends on the profit that it makes.

He gave me this whole table to refer to.

4Q profit in RM million Annualized PE Market Cap No Of Shares TP
400 1600 22 35200 8170 4.31
500 2000 22 44000 8170 5.39
600 2400 22 52800 8170 6.46
700 2800 22 61600 8170 7.54
800 3200 22 70400 8170 8.62
900 3600 22 79200 8170 9.69
1000 4000 22 88000 8170 10.77
1100 4400 22 96800 8170 11.85

 

Currently the market price is telling everyone that the number should be between RM700m to RM800m profit.
This is because the share price of RM8.43 falls within the range of RM7.54 to RM8.62.

So anything below RM700m means share price will drop a lot by more than 10%.

So anything above RM800m means share price will increase a lot by more than 10%.
 

Why 22x PE? Because average 10 years earnings growth is minimum 22%. Especially this year it can easily achieve 100% and next year another 100% so 22% in 10 years can achieve.

 

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Labels: TOPGLOV

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
TOPGLOV 8.47 0.00 (0.00%)

  4 people like this.
 
blistering i was hoping the share price to POP at RM12 noon time tomorrow !!! :D
16/09/2020 9:19 PM
Huat1 Aiyoyo know how to calculate maximum limit up price or not?
16/09/2020 9:48 PM
humongainz my god. 12
16/09/2020 9:52 PM
JBond007 Wah, your uncle becomes a fortune teller this week.
16/09/2020 9:55 PM
Goldgent The table looks familiar.
Your uncle copied the format from DaMaCai winning prize?
16/09/2020 10:23 PM
Goldgent The title also copy from Magnum?
How To Play The 4D?
16/09/2020 10:25 PM
csan how about RM1.5 billion profit? doesn't seem like you have considered this. also lets bet that it will not limit up even if it reports RM1.5 billion profit or more. Judging by your valuation, it should limit up today...
17/09/2020 7:22 AM
supersaiyan3 Eh, if i would do it.....maybe

NPV = Sum of net profits = NP 2020 + NP 2021 adjusted + NP 2022 adjusted + ....

to do it properly, maybe 3 stages better. Pandemic stage (ASP USD100++), normal grow stage (yearly 10% growth stage) and terminal stage (5% growth, beyond 2040 maybe)

NPV (roughly) = 2b (F20) + 8b(F21)/1.04 + 8b (F22)/(1.04)sq + 1.5b sqsq (F23-40)/(1.04)sqsqsq + terminal value.

NPV = 100.47b (roughly)

say rate of return is 4%.
17/09/2020 10:00 AM
cincaila my rookie tip: minus RM2 for all legit-looking TP for the most conservative TP for personal calibration.
17/09/2020 11:13 AM
csan cincaila, lets make a good joke here. so if we use macquarie's TP of RM5.40, it will be RM5.40 - RM2 = RM3.40. and then let say there's dividends of RM3 in the next 2 years, then TP ex-dividends will be 40sen. haha
17/09/2020 11:23 AM
bursahunter market is emotional thats why its unpredictable...ur calculation makes sense but not in share market..haha
17/09/2020 4:28 PM
sensonic OIL PRICES UP. OIL COUNTERS MAY GORENG TOMORROW.
17/09/2020 10:59 PM


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