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freetospeak

Author: freetospeak   |   Latest post: Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 9:18 AM

 

SUPERMAX OBM - The George Soros bet AGAIN? (REVISIT)

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 2:18 PM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 


For some Supermax shareholders, this coming TUESDAY (27 OCT 2020) could be like the 16th Sept 1992….the day where George Soros bet big against the British Pound Sterling. Will history repeat here with Supermax results?

For those that did not know the outcome, he pocketed over a billion dollars and almost brought the Bank of England to its knees…winkWill critics be proven wrong and believers redeemed?

To allay your concerns, the Consortium of Independent Analyst will present here some factual data. Whether this would be a hints of its super performance or just a bane, that is up for you to judge.

The graph below shows the Actual Medical Glove Export Value from Malaysia ranging from 2019 until June 2020, and mathematically projected from July until Dec 2020 the latter also known forecast. 

 

These information is extracted from statistical export data of the relevant government department of Malaysia. It is based on FOB value which is close approximation to the OEM value.

How do we know if the forecast is correct?  Well, let's examine this further. Many of us are aware on the rapid increase of new Covid cases globally. Here is a graph extracted from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

If we superimpose the patter of the increase in number of cases with the forecast of glove exports, here is what you will find;

 

 

It is no coincidence that both patterns show a very close correlation.Here is our consensus with results for Supermax in the near future.

Revenue increase follows the share of business contribution by Supermax to the total export value from Malaysia.

 

 

PAT Margin too increases, and so will the PAT values is driven by ASP increases while cost still maintaining almost the same.

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters.

 

 

Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

Labels: SUPERMX
  34 people like this.
 
kltower like
20/10/2020 3:18 PM
Airline Bobby lol . 1000% i guarantee you once qtr report out, price will dorp. Now thats when you buy in! not now lol
20/10/2020 8:06 PM
chtan33 like TG best ever results out, price drop... No certainty
20/10/2020 11:26 PM
ali baba https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-10-20-story-h1534735992-SUPERMAX_OBM_The_George_Soros_bet_AGAIN_REVISIT.jsp
21/10/2020 4:00 PM
cbmytrading https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-10-20-story-h1534679237-SUPERMAX_BEYOND_GLOVES.jsp
21/10/2020 8:28 PM
Mr_Kiah Stanley Thai and Koon Yew Yin say thank you very much for promotion ha ha ha !
21/10/2020 8:49 PM
stockraider Stop bullshitting the Gloves advances is likely be halted due to the falling reasons loh:

1. Excess capacity due to massive expansion of existing manufacturers capacity and coming on stream of new players loh..!!

2. Commissioning of new covid19 vaccines mah..!!

3. Herds mentality...Remember SARS epedemic die off naturally..about 1 year after it started so covid19 the most could be between 1 to 2 years loh...!! Spanish Flu kill 15% of world population die off after 3 years mah...!!
21/10/2020 10:24 PM
cbmytrading even old dishes but new tricks! great article!99xliked!
23/10/2020 8:48 PM

SUPERMAX - BEYOND GLOVES !!!

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 9:18 AM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1@fightingdragons


SUPERMAX - BEYOND GLOVES


Supermax is approaching its QTR 1 2021 result. All investors  are waiting in anticipation.

With the recent spike in case worldwide. Our prediction of Superbull in our previous articles is edging closer than ever.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-09-04-story-h1513289415-topGLOVE_SUPERmax_BULL_COMING.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-10-20-story-h1534735992-SUPERMAX_OBM_The_George_Soros_bet_AGAIN_REVISIT.jsp

In fact some gloves stock had broken new high and close to new high.

Renewed interest in Glove stock is rekindled as shown in this chart.

With the Covid cases breaking new high and local second wave outbreak. We might revisit a all time high Bursa Trading volume again from CMCO or even nationwide MCO and Loan Moratorium extension. Glove stock will be the darling again without doubts as more funds move back from other recovery theme stock.

Supermax had the following factors to look forward to:

1. Qtr 1 Good result. 

2. Share dividend date

3. Business prospect update which provide further price catalyst.

4. DSST return as BOD (some of his great and new plans can be expedited now)

5. KLCI indexing in Dec.

6. Plans for the 90mil Treasury share after the 45 :1 share dividend paid out. Another Share dividend or a possible  Oversea listing like TG?

To give a head up to prepare everyone to become an extraordinary investor.wink

We will talk more about supermax gloves and beyond gloves!!! 

 

1. GLOVES

Crest duration for each outbreak:

SARS - 2yrs

H5N1 - 5 yrs

H1N1 + Mers - 5 yrs

EBOLA - 2-3 yrs

2017 to 2019 - Mysterious Outbreak ??? before Covid 19

COVID 19 - 2020 - 2025 ?

The demand cycle for disease outbreak can be clearly depicted in the above chart with a crest formation lasting typical 2-3 yrs.

For H1N1 and H5N1 lasted 5 yrs. For Covid which is far more serious, we expect the duration will not be lower than H1N1. It will be structural changing and a huge long term impact can be seen. Margma project a 60% increase from 270 to 430 bil in the yr 2022. Mercator projected a 500bil demand by 2022 in the latest report. We expect a minimum 5 yrs crest formation at least. lasting to 2025.

We have no worries to demand side of the gloves. 

The greater worry comes from the supply side. With so much additonal production coming online. The equilibrium will come one day when asp will normalise. Margma expect asp to normalise in 2022/23 when equilibrium will be reached.

But when we talk about quilibrium reached.are we talking about asp falling back to precovid level ?

Pre-Covid

OEM USD23 -> DISTRIBUTOR USD60 -> RETAILER USD100

During Covid (2020-2023)

OEM USD80 -> DISTRIBUTOR USD120 -> RETAILER USD200

OEM USD100 -> DISTRIBUTOR USD140-> RETAILER USD220

OEM USD120 -> DISTRIBUTOR USD160-> RETAILER USD240

OEM USD1XX -> DISTRIBUTOR USD1XX-> RETAILER USD2XX

POST COVID (2023 beyond)

OEM USD70->  DISTRIBUTOR USD110 -> RETAILER USD150

OEM USD60->  DISTRIBUTOR USD100 -> RETAILER USD140

Price may gradually come down lower to 60-70 than peak of usd100 -120 but is still significantly higher than precovid of usd23. 

Due to the following reason:

1. Consumer used to the heightened price after few years.

2. Inflation and weakening USD

3. Increased cost of material

4. Tax

5.  Contract ASP between manufactuer and distributor are set at a higher norm price than precovid.

6. Hard pressing by Major distributor weakens due to COVID as more player goes OBM and direct with customers resulting in higher asp in gloves industry.


Our rough estimate for coming qtr 1 result 

We are expecting a PAT 781 m to 917 mil. AVG 850 mil.

From 400m in qtr 4 2020 to 850m in qtr 1 2021. Its a 110% QOQ increase !!!

From 24mil in qtr 1 2020 , its a 3400% increase in 1 year !!!

The price @ qtr1 2020 was about 68sen. It had risen to 10.70 which is only 1500%.

With 3400%, the price of Super shld be 68sen x 34 = RM23.12

At current price it is valuing Supermax at 24mil x15 = 360mil PAT which is even lesser than last Qtr PAT of 400 mil.

At 360 mil, it is even lower than post covid profit projection of  minimum 400m. (our projection is at the end of page)

So this is a gross undervaluation.

 

Beside the stellar performance from Glove business. Supermax do have other ventures with huge potential as follows.

2. BEYOND MASK / MASK PRODUCTION

https://mybeyondmask.com/

The following are some detail information about this great product.

Unique design with sterilizable, 3D custom-printed shells and silicone ring,  fitted for each individual. BeyondFit is a perfect seal with the face of every single user, for long-lasting comfort and maximum protection.

  • Highest medical-grade bacterial and particle filtration efficiency standards
  • Over 5x more breathable than traditional meltblown filters used in disposable face masks
  • No CO2 build-up within the mask over extensive use
  • No heat build-up within the mask over extensive use
  • Can be used for up to 4 hours in an non-healthcare setup (otherwise, requires change at every patient)
  • Can be safely removed and changed in less than 10 seconds on the BeyondFit™
  • Anti-Impact rigid shell for optimal safety in any environment

Make it your own

  • Your choice of mask shell, filters caps and head straps out of 9 colors, providing over 720 color combinations
  • Your name engraved in it
  • Organization name engraving option
  • Organization logo engraving option

COMMENT:

BEYONDFIT is good for professonials and specialists who need maximum safety and comfort. Good for replacing all mask type including N95 for front liners, clean room operation and specialised need field like mining ,chemical environment etc.

Highest margin due to more features.(30%> margin est.)

The comfort, breathability, and all other features of the BeyondFit™, with the simplicity of a standard product. No face scan, no 3D-printing, available in all standard sizes, suitable for all types of facesThe perfect solution to equip a large fleet of employees or customers.

 

  • A standard mask that was designed and optimized from a 10,000+ biometric references database
  • Standard sizes available from X-Small to X-Large
  • Your choice out of 5 color designs
  • A pack of 50 SafeFilters™
  • Possibility to engrave the name and logo of your organization and to personalize color design (Enterprise plan only)

COMMENT:

Good for mass public less the hassle and time consuming custom made process . Mass producing for easier marketability and reach out. Lesser margin but compensate with better volume.(15%> margin est.)

 

The new face mask filters generation. Higher bacterial, viral, and particle filtration efficiency, and 6 to 8 times more breathable than all previous filters. You will never have to compromise safety for comfort ever again.
 

  • 50 pack of single use, disposable SafeFilters™ good for 25 mask wearings
  • Certified Bacterial Filtration Efficiency and Viral Filtration Efficiency of 99.9%
  • Certified Particle Filtration Efficiency of 99.3%
  • Certified breathability index 6x better than any other N95 or surgical face mask
  • Removable and changeable filters without mask removal

 

Comment:

Recurring sales and profit . Better breathability 6 x better than n95 is KO factor.

Ability to  remove and change filters without removing mask is a very important aspect in full protection without too much hassle, contact and risk. 

VERDICT:

Even post covid BEYONDMASK is able to replace conventional n95 and 3ply mask expanded market.

US$1 billion market for N95 alone.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1148474/global-n95-mask-market-size/

As the global demand for N95 masks has skyrocketed in 2020 due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, producers have scrambled to increase production to meet that demand. The market value of N95 masks amounted to more than 802 million U.S. dollars in 2019. By 2027, it is forecast that this value will increase by more than double, to nearly 1.90 billion U.S. dollars.

It is estimated that production of the highly protective N95 face masks in the United States alone will increase to 180 million units per month by the end/winter months of 2020.

 

BEYONDMASK TRADEMARK IS OWNED BY SUPERMAX HEALTHCARE CANADA.

Registration in US in process.

https://uspto.report/TM/90037045

Timeline

2020-07-06 Application Filed
2020-07-09 Location: NEW APPLICATION PROCESSING
2020-07-09 Status: Live/Pending
2020-07-09 Status: New application will be assigned to an examining attorney approximately 3 months after filing date.
2020-07-09 Transaction Date

2020-07-09 filed.

New application will be assigned to an examining attorney approximately 3 months after filing date.

Certification and rolling out big scale is in process in US. Roll out in other countries will be in process as well.

 

SUPERMAX RECALIBRATING for BEYONDMASK/FACEMASK VENTURES.

Supermax will be fully supporting in the rollout as can be seens in previous result notes.

a) Supervision Optimax Sdn Bhd:

The Facemask Manufacturing in Malaysia would be undertaken by a new division of Supervision Optimax Sdn Bhd.  Initial capacity: 8 million pieces of Face Masks per month.  Target date of Commercial Production: CY 4Q2020  Target market: Global Market through the existing distribution channels in over 165 countries. However, we shall supply the Made in Malaysia Facemask for the local market to fight the Covid-19 pandemic at the moment until Covid-19 is contained & until the ban of the Export Sales is lifted.  RM8.0 million has been budgeted to start this initial project.

note: This Facemask production can be normal face mask and also Beyond mask which yields much higher profit.

Just a rough estimate:

8 million Beyond mask x rm10 profit per mask = 80 mil profit per mth x 3 = 240 mil /qtr for malaysia and export.

b) Supermax in Canada: To respond to the call by the Canadian Government to be self-sufficient in PPE supply with Made in Canada, we are working with our Canadian partners to invest in Face Mask Manufacturing with primary focus for the Canadian market. More details will be announced to Bursa as soon as it becomes available.

Potential Canada market alone:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-searching-masks-international-1.5517276

The Trudeau government's announcement Tuesday that it will spend up to $2 billion to procure personal protective equipment — including more than 60 million N95 masks — comes weeks into a global pandemic and raises questions about Canada's emergency preparedness. 

60 mil /yr x rm10 profit = 600 mil profit per year conservatively. 

If sum them up = 640mil + (240 mil /qtr. x4)=1.5 bil profit /yr or 375 mil/qtr.

this is about the previous qtr 3 profit of 400 mil jus for BEYONDMASK alone. And it is recurring becoz it is meant to replace the N95 users even b4 covid.This is a huge potential and it is possible to be attained with the future massive rollout by stages.

POSSIBLE ROLLOUT MOVES for MASK VENTURES.

Production of BEYONDMASK requires clean room and 3D printing machines conforming to ISO and health standard.

It should be produced locally so it is possible that Supermax will set up Production Facility in CANADA ,US ,UK, BRAZIL and MALAYSIA due to their well established distribution network centre. Since they can share the highskilled workforce in between contact lens department.

They may consider setting up localised contact lens facility or vice versa to tapped into local high skilled workforce starting in CANADA in MALAYSIA as the first jumping stone. 

 

3.AVEO VISION

Contact lenses with roadmap to expand to 1 billion lenses after obtaining license from china market. 

 "Supermax has spent about RM100 million in the contact lens segment as of November 2019, while total revenue contribution from the segment remained small at about 2%. Executive director Cecile Thai (the founder’s daughter) added that Supermax has an existing annual manufacturing capacity of 70 million lens with a 60% focus on OEM. Its utilisation rate stood at 60% in 2019. The company is looking to grow in the U.S., Japan, and Eastern Europe."

The global and U.S. contact lens market stands at US$12 billion and $5 billion respectively. 

US$12 billion (RM50 billion x 3% = rm1.5billion potential revenue for AVEO VISION).

Currently contact lens only account for 2-3% of total revenue (precovid). If the growth of 15x (70mx15=1bil)= 30-40% of current reveunue. Contributing to big profit to bottomline.Contact lens are high premium product with good margins. And highly recurrent profit from regular customer.

Supermax roadmap is to hav 1-2 billion caps by 2028. Meaning a growth of 1500% to 3000% from 2019

Current Covid have enable to expand and captured more direct customer than ever before. And also increase AVEO brand awareness through Auerlia and Supermax other brand product. Creating a Family brand awareness for supermax own house product. Saving much marketing effort and cost. We can see distributors are carrying AVEO lenses and Supermax gloves in their distribution since they are both healthcare product.

With the current super profit generated from Gloves. The speed will be greatly boosted. We expect it can be acchieved within 3-4 yrs for 1 bil caps. 

With the expansion of production facility for BEYOND MASK and CONTACT LENS. It is even more convincing now to be done concurrently with the major Distribution centre in US, UK, CANADA etc. 

One of the expansion problem with contact lens expansion is short of high skilled workforce in malaysia.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/supermax-plans-contact-lens-plants-005350308.html

extracted from the above news dated 15 August 2016

  • Rubber glove producer Supermax Corporation, which aims to increase its contact lens capacity to two billion pieces annually in the next 10 years from 40 million currently, plans to set up contact lens plants in Singapore, the US and the UK.
  • Management noted that Malaysia will remain its main manufacturing hub, but note the challenge in getting talent in the country, adding that at least 95 percent of its workforce are engineers with minimum qualification of a university degree.

 

ONLINE EYEWEAR RETAILERS ARE ON THE RISE

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-1800contacts-m-a-kkr-idUSKCN26D32K


U.S. buyout firm KKR & Co Inc KKR.N is in advanced talks to buy contact lens retailer 1-800 Contacts for more than $3 billion from investment firm AEA Investors, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Some analysts have said the online eye-wear industry is set to benefit from work-from-home policies as consumers increase purchases of protective glasses, with the shutting of mall-based retailers due to the COVID-19 pandemic also likely to drive a jump in market share."


Online eyewear industry is on the rise. Supermax AVEO VISION is a growing online eyewear company. A potential underdog which will spring and outperform any market underestimation.

https://spy.com/articles/health-wellness/diet-nutrition/monthly-contact-lenses-subscriptions-207875/#!

AVEO is no.8th and 1800-contact is on 10th of the list. It doesnt mean AVEO Vision is better but it shows that AVEO vision have its competitve edge as a new online contact lens start up. 


aveovision

"Is this the new normal?  All we know is that instead of going out, we’re letting the world come to us for a while. Aveo daily contacts have always been delivered right to your door, but now we’re making it easy to renew your prescription at home, too! You can take our FreshRx vision test in minutes, without even leaving the house."

https://www.instagram.com/p/CD1rqcnn9xz/

The next new normal will be getting your test and contact lens even without leaving your house!!!


What Datok Seri Stanley Thai said about AVEOVISION in 2017 before he is out of BOD which caused a setback in contact lens development as her daughter have to manage the supermax glove business as well.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/supermax-forges-ahead-contact-lens-venture#:~:text=Situated%20on%20its%20premises%20in%20Sungai%20Buloh%2C%20Supermax%E2%80%99s,24%20hours%20a%20day%2C%20supervised%20by%20in-house%20engineers.

"Outside Malaysia, Supermax owns a six-acre (2.43ha) parcel in the US that could be developed into a contact lens manufacturing site, provided US President Donald Trump’s tax reform presents the group with a good deal."

With BeyondMASK , it might be coming true again for the new mask and lens expansion lines. 

"The next phase of expansion for Supermax’s contact lens business will only happen in about two to three years, says Thai, adding that the group does not have room to build new production lines. However, he is planning to set up a “contact lens headquarters” in one of the company’s smallest and oldest glove factories. Relocating and repurposing the factory will take up to three years, which means capital expenditure for the contact lens business will not be substantial in the near future."

Its about time the relocating and repurposing is due for completion in 2020/21. And the expansion is ready to take off with huge flush of cash on hand since covid.

  

SUMMARY

1. OBM- X + 48 billion Capacity by 2022

With OBM-X and 48 billion capacity. Supermax can sustain 400m per qtr in the event of asp falling to 50 to 60 ASP precovid at 22% margin. It is very releastic as Supermax have removed middleman and agent and expanded OBM to 97-100%(70% precovid) and a double capacity with  highly efficient new lines. Hence a 22% margin is true and fair.

Due to the fact that post covid, ASP will remain higher than precovid due to the reasons stated in  GLOVE section above

The above calculation is a very conservative projection. Providing a support for long term invester.

 

2. BEYONDMASK/ MASK and PPE

Supermx can estimate to gain a 100 m to 200m profit per qtr on worldwide roll out.

10m mask + recurring filter /qtr  (only 3 m per month which is easily acchieve on a worldwide scale)

= 10m x rm10 profit = 100 m per qtr

The last time we saw a custom made Beyond mask is selling at USD 100.(3 months ago, price might drop now)

Of course we believe the price will come down with economy of scale to make it more affordable to public.

So a rm10 profit is very conservative.

 

3.Contact lens.

usd33 for 60 lens is the retail price in us = rm 2 per lens

Estimate 20% profit = 40 sen

long term 1 billion lens /yr x 40 sen = 400 mil profit = 100m /qtr

 

Total = 400m +100m +100m = 550m per qtr conservative projection.

eps = rm0.81 eps 

pe 20 (KLCI index mean for gloves)  = rm16.20 POST COVID 2022/23

Meaning investor buying in at 10.50 now will make money even covid is over with a 60% potential return in 3 yrs time.

Not considering share and cash dividend along the way.

As a savvy investor, one should look beyond beyond the horizon to prepare ourself and have the conviction to wait or position to jump in for future run anytime .  

Supermax had positioned itself well for short ,mid and long term growth and expansion .Even in the event of post covid Supermax have all the correct ingredient to continue deliver exceptional profit with or without covid. 

 

Look out for Supermax..Look Beyond glove !!!


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

 

  64 people like this.
 
zzzz52 thanks for the blog post.
20/10/2020 9:22 AM
Ryan Tan I LOVE YOU SIFU, GREAT ARTICLE.
20/10/2020 9:24 AM
cbmytrading thank you for the fantastic analysis and great informative article...very like,like,like!!! thank you sifu free and CIA team, very much appreciated!
20/10/2020 9:38 AM
justbuy Nice one sifu @freetospeak :)
20/10/2020 9:39 AM
ATARAH Excellent reporting.
Thank you very much.
20/10/2020 9:41 AM
persie Thanks Sifu FTS...
20/10/2020 9:50 AM
GiantPanda Excellent awesome Fantastic in-depth Insightful analysis!!!!!!!!!!

Top sifu of Supermax is back!!!
20/10/2020 9:53 AM
stocktrade101 Also BeyondComing condoms too!
20/10/2020 9:56 AM
kltower like
20/10/2020 10:01 AM
youngfish nice article freetospeak
20/10/2020 10:07 AM
amateurJR Haha the mask looks like ultraman
20/10/2020 10:16 AM
YNWALFC thanks for contributing, very good research
20/10/2020 10:17 AM
slow_stalker nice read kasi like support support sifu
20/10/2020 10:28 AM
andrew2020 CiA team, bravo!
20/10/2020 10:39 AM
flyingtomoon2020 FTS sifu, Thanks
20/10/2020 10:41 AM
andrew2020 Sifu freetospeak, excellent!
20/10/2020 10:41 AM
cbpenbrush Thanks again Sifu FTS for sharing an excellent analysis.
20/10/2020 10:44 AM
infinity888 @supermax
20/10/2020 11:06 AM
Vairocana9999 Dear sifu and CiA team, excellent write up and research. Thank you so much.
20/10/2020 11:11 AM
newbie8080 @freetospeak

Your ASP is not spot price right?
20/10/2020 11:38 AM
Kunio1437 Thanks yet again to sifu and team CIA for the excellent hardwork!
20/10/2020 11:43 AM
inPeace Brilliant, good job Freetospeak
20/10/2020 12:04 PM
thteh Tqvm for the great article.
20/10/2020 12:48 PM
TGbee TQ FTS sifu :)
20/10/2020 12:52 PM
myways great one to CIA team and FTS
20/10/2020 1:01 PM
iswara good article n analysis
20/10/2020 2:45 PM
johnny cash please anyone here knows EXACT date of supermax coming earning report???
20/10/2020 3:31 PM
chtan33 euphoria already happen la...
20/10/2020 7:36 PM
superman87 nice mask. innovative, not like other just simply jump into bandwagon and copycat
20/10/2020 7:46 PM
supersaiyan3 Agree! Gross undervaluation.

Well written.

Just one remark, covid will only start to ease second half of 2021, that will make glove runs up to 4 years.
20/10/2020 11:50 PM
Yahoo128 Tks Sifu , my confidence level just recharge to eyond maximum level after reading your post. Thanks a million CIA.
21/10/2020 9:10 AM
influenza19 Good analysis... supermax should be hold for long term.
21/10/2020 12:23 PM
wbwanabe Tks FTS & Cia teams for your hard work. Great analysis and write up as usual. This article reinforce my faith that Smax has great potentials in years to come. A very innovative company that seeks ways to add value to their company with introductions and forays into new product lines. Loved the BeyondFit and BeyondSafe mask concepts. This is the type of products that should be used in order to reduce waste and help our current polluted environments. Now if only Smax will give BeyondSafe mask as a door gift for their AGM!!
21/10/2020 12:59 PM
ali baba https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-10-20-story-h1534679237-SUPERMAX_BEYOND_GLOVES.jsp
21/10/2020 3:59 PM
tips888 I WILL NOT SELL A SINGLE LOT OF SUPERMAX, GOING TO WITHDRAW MY EPF AND BUY SUPERMAN
21/10/2020 4:07 PM
lamy92 Vaccine is coming next month says hisamudin..
21/10/2020 4:20 PM

topGLOVE SUPERmax BULL COMING !!!!

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020, 10:31 AM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1@fightingdragons

topGLOVE SUPERmax BULL COMING !!!! 


 

 

From the above BULL market cycle.

We are exactly at the BEAR TRAP stage = Correction fed by overvaluation concerns & premature fears that cycle has ended.

Here is our basis to believe so.

We extracted the chart of Supermax and tested a few models to against this cycle.

Below is the line chart in Weeks. 

And this is what we have discovered;

The same pattern is also observed with Topglove’s Weekly chart as you can see here;

That is when majority of retailers are escaping without knowledge that what the future is forthcoming. Under the scenario that ASP will peak in  JUN 2021 and sustaining til the end of 2021. Gloves company will continue to enjoy super and unimaginable profit til 2022. During this time, please be aware that many companies in Bursa will continue to report lacklustre or even heavy losses due to covid rampage.

Why we believe a super bull market is coming for glove stock. Here is our viewpoint taking Supermax as an example:

SUPERMAX OBM-X ASP USD280 by JUN 2021.

With current asp of USD180 in August, projecting a US$10 increase per month. ASP could reach USD250 to USD280 by April to Jun 2021.

 

we jus take a USD220 asp as mean.

Based on above (based on 1.3 billion share) if we estimate :

(0.745 + 2)/2 x4 qtr = RM 5.48 (RM 2.74 ex bonus)

PE now is only 21/ 5.48 =3.8 

We believe most glove counter especially the big ones are going into single or 10+ PE going forward if price is not moving in tandem with profit growth.This will be grossly undervaluation sector wide and will attract more funds .

For more info on Topglove PAT and Glove company PAT relationship with share price. Here is another deeper analysis.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/glovesvsvaccine/2020-09-04-story-h1513318067-Gloves_Top_Glove_Supermax_Harta_Kossan_it_s_all_about_PAT.jsp

DEMAND SIDE FORCAST

From the below forcast , ASP will peak  in Jun 2021. slowly tapering off into 2022.

This is under a conservative scenario of vaccination is working and WHO declaring pandemic is over. 

While we wish it is true. The latest development of possible ADE respond from Reinfection and Rushed Vaccine Hazard had topped many headlines. On top of that Distribution and Vaccination will probably take years to complete. Not to say acceptance of a 40-50% efficacy vaccine especially in the US and Euro is not exceptionally high.

Since NO ONES SAFE UNTIL EVERYONES SAFE. Control of Pandemic will be slowed when theres distribution difficulty as well. If there is continue resurgence in 2021 winter time again. The below graph might not be accurate and ASP price will be sustained and continue into 2023.

Why we think ASP will be sustained on the high side even into 2022/23  are discussed in our previous blog:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-18-story-h1512394632-VACCINE_OR_WITHOUT_GLOVE_STOCK_RALLY.jsp

SUPPLY SIDE FORCAST

 

From the above table we can see that excess capacity is gradual and it will only reach equilibrium in 2022.

Take note that Capacity expansion above shown is on normal expansion speed. No one can be sure whether there will be any set back. 

During current exploding demand. Both materials and suppliers had JUST beginning to embark on 100% increase in their capacity. This will slow down the capacity rollout worldwide because it takes even longer time to build a new material plant like NBR plant.

Just an example:

The latest NBR plant by PETRONAS and LG will only complete in  mid 2023 earliest if it works out smoothly. Topglove have plan to build NBR plant, but is still in planning stage only. So capacity rollout is not as simple as building a new glove plant. All supplies side must keep up in line as well. As all material and supplies are expanding at normal growth rate precovid. Expecting them to expand up by 100% in short notice is unthinkable citing the NBR plant as example.

According to industrial source, NBR shortage is getting acute now and major supplies are all booked by regular players. But even with early booking , they are not enough even for the big 4. They might need to resort to producing 2.5g -3g light gloves to reduce consumption. Alternative is to turn to rubber gloves to make up volume. That is the same for China and Thailand glove company, NBR and other supplies shortage are slowing down capacity expansion.

In other words, ASP is not coming down and instead be increasing due to serious material shortage and slower capacity expansion. Not many are aware of this, so we are here to enlighten everyone.

In regarding to new comers . We can say they will be at the lowest priority to be allocated the limited supplies due to huge early booking by all the big boys. They probably has to pay for spot rate for Materials and supplies just like the new glove buyers from gloves company. Even with spot order, they will still suffer insufficient nbr to produce enough nitrile gloves cost effectively.

Newcomer will not be able to produce 2.5g-3g gloves. Big 4 took many years to reach there. When small /new player failed to deliver, quality issue, financial issue, FDA failure will come. It will make big4/small4 even stronger. 

The final outcome of those small newcomer will probably be "built to be acquired" modal when they are unable to produce profitably n reliably. Their only fate is to sell it away at the BIG BOYS preference price . This had happened in the past and it will happen again. 

Note: Not all gloves company are the same especially the newcomers.

 

POST COVID DEMAND AND SCENARIO.

 

From the above chart . Glove usage per capital in Brazil, Asia , China, India  are very low in the range of 4 - 24 VS 80 -150 in developed countries like US and EU.

We dont think they will remain so low  post COVID. There are ABUNDANCE  of UPSIDE DEMAND from many other countries worldwide after this pandemic experience. As many expert expressed that COVID is here to stay permanently. We have to live with it.

And prevention measures will not go away and same as to stockpiling for PPE.

 

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters due to its OBM advantage which allows them for dynamic pricing  and super margin being capitalised .

We believe other Glove stock with exceptional performance in operation and profits will be OP as well during and post this unusual time.  

 

Side Note:

1. Although we believe there is a super bull run in the future. It doesnt mean it will go up in straight line. Up and down are expected during the long up trend.

2. This is the first time the world is going into Winter season with Covid 19 at 23 million base. Last time we had 0 case at this juncture. So the worst had yet to come.

3. Who is the foreign fund that bought 4+% of Supermax at 22.14 on friday 28th Aug?

4. If you like our post please share it out. Hit the LIKE button !!! 

 


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 
Labels: TOPGLOV, SUPERMX
  155 people like this.
 
freetospeak i am not dr fong ...if i am dr fong wont be here talk crap already.
04/09/2020 3:13 PM
Shanjing777 Thanks freetospeak. Good analysis. We need people like you in this forum tht talk abt facts, evidence and figures. Furthermore like the analyst says most orders are already lock in for at least till 2Q 2021 fearing another round of outbreak. Orders lock in means part of it has been paid. Money in the pocket. So hold tight, sit back and wait.
04/09/2020 3:27 PM
see2sea fantastic analysis..very like!!! so deep until most of the local retailers are too shallow to understand the term investment. they will need more time to digest and understand the real situation..coz most of them are gamblers.

Thanks again freetospeak sifu & CiA Team! RESPECT!

I still dumb dumb hold..LOL
04/09/2020 3:38 PM
Invest to greatness $$$$ @glove_bubble.....I almost agree with your bubble indicator if you can provide some more data to back up your claim. as we are open to comment thanks.

-----------------

GLOVE_BUBBLE MY SINCERE ADVISE PLEASE DO NOT KEEP IN YOUR FANTASIAL...GLOVE BUBBLE HAVE GONE BURST SINCE LAST MONTH...BIG4 HARTA AND KOSSAN APPEARS BIG TOP...ANY REBOUNDS TODAY OR LATER SHOULD BE LAST TIMING TO SELL. 2 CENTS
04/09/2020 1:31 PM
04/09/2020 3:49 PM
25yrsinvestor Don't get trap with such fake prove... Just don't buy it until it really limit up
04/09/2020 4:24 PM
25yrsinvestor Play safe
04/09/2020 4:24 PM
stamp326 Tq @freetospeak ... am more confident to continue holding
04/09/2020 4:50 PM
supersaiyan3 Nice one, well written.

Calvin also so supportive, bravo!!!!

That's pretty much what i predicted. I think Glove will continue to rise for 4 years.
04/09/2020 4:56 PM
ThePacifier I Guess analyst is busy copying this As reference . Good job freetospeak!
04/09/2020 4:59 PM
ballsapart My turn to express my appreciation to Sifu “freetospeak” n CIA Team for this enlightening research n paper. Thank u.
04/09/2020 5:41 PM
liewtz06 Another great insightful content from Sifu Freetospeak and CIA Team, Thank you very much for sharing!
04/09/2020 6:05 PM
inPeace Excellent freetospeak, you are always impressive
04/09/2020 6:41 PM
arman70 Don't u ever consider that other countries are building glove factories as well? Glove manufacturing is not rocket science.
04/09/2020 8:31 PM
Targeted Very-very good info, especially the material shortage explanation and how big 4 hv advantage.
04/09/2020 9:03 PM
Goldgent Marvelous.
Your previous article 'SUPERMAX - OBM - X !!! REVALUATION IMMINENT !!!' on 21 Aug 20 boosted up the share in 5 trading days......but unfortunately turned down by Uncle Koon lame duck article.
I believe this new article will power up the share again.
04/09/2020 9:59 PM
Observers I come from medical background.
Glove people are scared of Vaccine.
I always tell people around, drop of gloves is for a while when vaccine news come, when the vaccine is available, theres a huge surge of gloves demands than never before because each gloves are required for one vaccine given (doctors and nurses are not allow to wear the same gloves for next patient if there's a injection given before on the same pair of gloves).
There are 7.8 billion people in the world, u can imagine how much gloves are required. After a while, gloves stock will thrive again along way with vaccine. By that time, Glove people will smile to the end and welcome any vaccine new. The more vaccine news, the higher the glove stock will surge.
04/09/2020 10:09 PM
edgedumbledore Great and insightful analysis, properly supported by facts and figures, great job CIA! Thanks for providing valuable information to the real investors when all the naysayers are all here shouting brainlessly.
04/09/2020 10:18 PM
newbie8080 Trump’s vaccine chief says unlikely one is ready by November

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the chief advisor for Operation Warp Speed, the White House’s vaccine program, said in an interview with NPR that a vaccine is unlikely to be ready and introduced into the population before November.

Slaoui’s comments come after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention directed state health officials to be prepared to distribute a vaccine by Nov. 1. The move raised concerns that the date was tied to the approaching Nov. 3 presidential election. Slaoui said the date is for planning purposes and that “it’s the right thing to do to be prepared in case.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/coronavirus-live-updates.html
04/09/2020 10:38 PM
JBond007 Freetospeak you are really our Top Gun.
Added more Supermax shares today.
04/09/2020 10:56 PM
macquarie whatever your real name is, i am here to support you
05/09/2020 12:34 AM
jibbie good article. I should have kept my supermax. Now only got kossan
05/09/2020 8:38 AM
BALANCE_VIEW arman70..... u are right, BUT demand 4 gloves next few yrs will way outstripped supply.

Discusssion with China 2 largest manufacturers revealed that at most they can increase capacity is less than 10bil pieces per yr, despite the claim that it is not rocket science. Their increase will easily be absorbed by domestic consumption as currently China usage is one lowest intop 30 countries in world together with India.

Also, gloves need certification. Couple with current trade war, there is serious doubt that Europe n USA will biy frm China suppliers.
05/09/2020 9:32 AM
stock_investor World recorded 290k daily cases today. Projected cases will break 300k next week and demand for gloves is going to spike in fall and winter which is starting from september to february. wave 5 is coming !!!
05/09/2020 9:36 AM
johnny cash Very good article
05/09/2020 9:41 AM
Jackthejeep Sorry I did not study well, is this guy a professional licensed analyst or some professor?

Or just keyboard warrior who all in even underwear in gloves?
05/09/2020 9:59 AM
nikko88 Good analysis and good article , worth to read . Just hold tight .
05/09/2020 10:02 AM
freetospeak jackthe deep...i am the keyboard warrior who all in underwear in gloves...lol...everyone knows that
05/09/2020 10:27 AM
Bull13 Don't forget . The are risks involved ..
1. WIndfall Tax
2. Govt may set minimum price for rubber to protect the smallholders

The 2 factors can derail your so called bull run and bring the party to a stop.
05/09/2020 10:47 AM
freetospeak 1.ther wont be windfall tax. no country in the world impose windfall tax on gloves. malaysia wont b the first.
2.minimum price on rubber is good news. lesser cost more profit for rubber gloves.
05/09/2020 11:24 AM
stockraider Already peak demand mah..!!

Increasing capacity & intense competition mah..!!

Vaccine coming loh....!!

Selling price already started tapering loh..!!

Run when u still have some limited time to act mah..!!


Posted by IronShirt > Sep 5, 2020 11:21 AM | Report Abuse

If you want to used 3-4 times TP is a better product, but most Glove are same day throw or one time used....lower spec. can sell very well in India and Africa / Latin America
05/09/2020 11:25 AM
freetospeak peak demand ah...we haven gone thru the 1st winter of covid...pandemic jus start.
05/09/2020 11:27 AM
freetospeak peak demand only come when theres no need for vaccine...NOT on appearance of vaccine.
05/09/2020 11:29 AM
stockraider It already coming...thats why gloves owner already selling mah...!!

Already peak demand mah..!!

Increasing capacity & intense competition mah..!!

Vaccine coming loh....!!

Selling price already started tapering loh..!!

Run when u still have some limited time to act mah..!!

Posted by freetospeak > Sep 5, 2020 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

peak demand only come when theres no need for vaccine...NOT on appearance of vaccine.
05/09/2020 11:32 AM
stocktrade101 Yes, invest in gloves but don't put all your eggs in glove basket only.
05/09/2020 4:52 PM
sensonic UNCLE K SEEM HINTING COMFORT GLOVES
05/09/2020 6:49 PM
yswong2587 Very detail analysis, thanks writer for your hard work to provide important messages and charts happy investing.
05/09/2020 9:21 PM
calvintaneng Topglove boss already stated

Best is yet to come for next 7 qtr results till year 2022

1. Topglove selling to over 200 nations worldwide mostly to Governments
They know more about Gloves than anyone else on this earth

2. Gloves are preSOLD with 50% Cash upfront so future 7 qtrs profits are LOCKED IN.

3. NO ONE CAN AFFORD TO CANCEL FOR 2 REASONS

I) Too costly as 50% cash burnt
ii) As an insurance in case Vaccine failed
Not all people want to be injected with Vaccine
Even face mask also they rebel. Some even rebel Mco lockdown like in Australia now
So the rebel will cause Covid 19 to spike

4. For Top 8 Genuine Glove stocks they will all report Fantastic , Incremental, Solid PROFITS IN THEIR BALANCE SHEETS FROM SPECTACULAR QUARTER AFTER SPECTACULAR QUARTERS ALL THRU YEAR 2020, 2021 AND WELL INTO 2022 EVEN WITH VACCINE ON.

THESE ARE REAL PROFITS ROLLING IN

5. AS RESULTS TURN FROM GOOD TO GREAT AND TO SPECTACULAR THE FUTURE FORWARD P/E OF GENUINE GLOVES LIKE TOPGLOVE, SUPERMAX AND HLT WILL SHRINK TO SINGLE DIGIT

FOR ALL OTHER NEW GLOVE ENTITIES LIKE ANZO, MQTECH, MSCM, INIX AND OTHER GLOVE WANABES THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO SHOW

ALL CON JOBS AT BEST

WHY SO?

ANSWER

1. THERE IS NO GLOVE HAND MOLDS FOR NEW PLAYERS AS ALL PREBOOK AND PRESOLD

2.MR KEN OF HLT PUCHONG FACTORY STATED IT WILL NOW TAKE UP TO 9 MONTHS TO SET UP NEW GLOVE DIPPER LINERS.

THAT IS NOT INCLUDING FACTORY AND HAND MOLD. THAT MEANS EARLIEST IS JUNE 2021

3. KSSC PEOPLE SAID THE SAME THING AND THEY SAID FURTHER

"EVEN IF GLOVE FACTORY IS UP BY JUNE 2021 THERE IS NOW NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY OF GLOVE CHEMICAL IN MALAYSIA"

SO CAN EXPECT DELAY TILL END 2021

4. THEN GOT 3 MORE HURDLES

1) MEDICAL EXAM GLOVE NEED APPROVAL FROM MALAYSIA GOVT

2. IF PASSED FIRST STEP THEN MUST ALSO GET APPROVAL FROM FOREIGN GOVT LIKE USA

3. FINALLY BY JUNE 2022 AFTER ALL GIVEN GREEN LIGHT

WHO WILL TRUST THESE UNKNOWN NEW GLOVE SELLERS?

HL RUBBER INDUSTRIES HAVE BEEN PASSED OFF AS A FRONT TO SELL TRUSTED MEDICAL EXAM GLOVES!

SEE. EVEN IN THIS TIME OF GREAT NEED THESE UNKNOWN GLOVES GOT TO HIDE BEHIND HL RUBBER TO SELL?

So can forget about all other upcoming new gloves companies

They are failures right from the very start if you just checked with es_ceramic people, check with Hlt or kssc people

No wonder Mscm insiders sold out their shares just like other fake gloves wannabes

All their future qtr results will be negative

All These

Topglove
Supermax
Careplus
Hlt

Will show very powerful earnings going forward

So stay invested

Buy more while other ignoramus sell in shivering fear

Sustain your patience great movements take time to develop

Malaysian Rubber Gloves are still world champion for the next decade and we'll into 2050
05/09/2020 11:15 PM
chrischinmy https://www.thestartv.com/v/widespread-use-of-covid-19-vaccine-not-expected-until-mid-2021

The market is short of supply at least till mid-2021.
05/09/2020 11:38 PM
Jackthejeep https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/russian-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-no-serious-side-effects-lancet-says.html
05/09/2020 11:53 PM
muniandy52 after getting all the valid and useful information from some good analytical views from our forum, it is indeed the best time to make a good decision on glove counters. best luck.
06/09/2020 12:24 AM
freetospeak Thamk you sifu Calvin for the additional input.
06/09/2020 7:39 AM
stamp326 Tq @calvintaneng for the very informative facts
06/09/2020 7:41 PM
Jackthejeep More like bullshet haha
07/09/2020 4:44 PM
Jackthejeep I was right hahahaha
08/09/2020 12:55 PM
Jackthejeep Hi, I hope the thread starter will be able to forgive himself after cheating and lying so many newbies onto the express train to Holland.

Those who got red in their portfolio due to this blog, please dont be angry at me, sometimes people can appear to be "expert" but they just talk many so that you can help push his share price up and take his tickets
08/09/2020 5:39 PM
iambillionaireinusd still dropping like hell
09/09/2020 1:17 PM
iambillionaireinusd @calvintaneng why HLT and careplus will show very powerful earnings going forward ??
09/09/2020 1:21 PM
Jackthejeep The author had quietly sold all his shares and will now disappear slowly, you guys who followed him are dumber than donkeys

In share market, there is no "kindness", only intentions to sell their shares at highest price
09/09/2020 11:43 PM
Jackthejeep Dear shareholders, holding gold or holding bullshet? Can the author save us?
10/09/2020 3:57 PM
investortrader88 Tks for yr valuable sharing freetospeak.
25/09/2020 8:30 AM

SUPERMAX - OBM - X !!! REVALUATION IMMINENT !!!

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Fri, 21 Aug 2020, 7:57 PM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 

OBM -X

Supermax chose a business model of differentiation by positioning itself as an OBM provider instead of OEM. With this, their investment over the past 20 years has been focused on establishing the delivery efficiency, distribution, and marketing. All this with the aim of establishing brand loyalty and value. Their brand equity would be synonymous to Louis Vuitton rather than Tesco.

With Covid. Supermax is able to be streamlined to OBM-X :
 
1.Xtra Customer base.
Supermax had captured many new and direct customers (eg.major government bodies and agency) into their database due to covid. These customers once captured will be long term customer in future as Supermax will not lose out in terms of service and pricing (who can win OBM interms of pricing. Not even china cheap gloves.) So for those who keep worrying about new supply coming online should not worry about supermax. Sometime its not only about pricing , Service and Quality of product is of extreme importance. Likewise for other premium n innovative glove product from malaysia.
No point for being able to produce good gloves if one is unable to bring it to the market. Because they can eXcel bringing their produce to the market and the right market that can pay for the value.Hence, they have gained more customers than others.
 
2.Xtra Margin.
No brainer . Removal of middle man , agent and Big distributorhad completely overhauled the margin of Supermax which permanently increase by 20-30% more. This increase is permanent and even the ASP were to drop bak to precovid price (not likely due to reasons stated in our previous article : VACCINE OR WITHOUT = GLOVE STOCK RALLY!!!).
Super will be able to command a very high net profit margin compared to precovid. No longer is the sub 10% margin like in precovid.
Their brand equity and ability to market this to the correct market which allows them to command a better margin than others. In other words, their customers are also willing to pay higher for it with satisfaction.
 
 
3.Xpanded Network.
Due to this Covid. Supermax have aggresively expanded into new distribution line such as more PPE like mask,hand sanitizer, sanitary wipes and towels,faceshield,gown, cost,hair net etc. The collaboration with Shapeshifter for worldwide distribution of BEYONDMASK and Canada Government Mask Contract to be annouced later. Korea distribution is expanding as well. We believe they might acquire some of the largest distributor to become their subsidiary. Aquisition of established distribution network is more economical with a lot of potential.
 
Their contact lens had also improved by leaps n bound due to better publicity , advertising funding and network.
Don't be surprise in 2-3 yrs time, it will bring us the most explosive growth which other glove company doesn't enjoy.
Their knowhow and experience is an enabler for them to expand and reaching into new market segments faster than the others.
 
 
4. Xplosive Profit.
Needless to say. with pt 1 to 3 coupled with agressive capacity expansion equals explosive profit.This permanent upgrade is unprecedented. Unlike previous outbreak. It is not going back to precovid OBM margin and old customer base which is controlled and squeezed by many middle man and big established distributor. 
 
Here is a post covid scenario projection: (based on 48.4 million Caps @ 85% unitisialtion rate by end of 2022)
 
 
 
 
 
From the above conservative scenario projection. Super will still able to sustain high profit even it fall back to Precovid pricing with the OBM-X model.
 
The ascension from OBM to OBM-X should warrant a revaluation of Supermax since it is a structural and permanent upgrade.
 
The only weak point in supermax is capacity. Now with explosive margin and profit. Supermax have planned to double their capacity (highest % increase compared to peers) to 48.4 bil by 2022. Ranking after Topglove and on par with HARTA .

Actually this is not a weak point on secoond thought. In fact even with lesser capacity, they already fare far better than Harta and Kossan. It is which business model/strategy they wish to position themselves in and how will they have executed it. In this case, Super is A+ with OBM model.

 

With OBM-X and 48.4 bil caps by 2022. The effect would be at least a 100 bil capacity in size. Remember Super is earning same profit as 100 bil capacity like Topglove while with only 48 bil COGS. ROE will be very attractive in that sense.

Every RM Supermax makes now and reinvested on capacity expansion, would generate 2-3 times more RM than PEERs. Market has not yet to realise this explosive growth potential of Supermax. This is the hidden power of OBM -X margin.

REVALUATION

 
Current Market Caps
 
SUPERMAX  RM 21.40   = 29 BIL
HARTALEGA RM17.20   =  59BIL
TOPGLOVE  RM 28.00   =  76 BIL
 
To fetch a higher market cap comparable to Topglove(39% now) and Harta(48% now),supermax need

1. Comparable proftabilty and margin to Topglove , Harta.(70% to 90%of their current profit)

Supermax latest QTR is 400m VS Harta 220M (182% )
Supermax latest QTR is 400m VS TopGlove 348 m (115%)
 
With the latest result. Super already met and exceeded the (70% to 90%) benchmark.

2. Comparable dividend payout policy.

This one a bit lacking.but with better profitabilty it shld improve. But with the coming 45-1 share dividend  and possible cash dividend in coming bumper quarter. Dividend policy should improve nevertheless.

3. Comparable liquidity.

SUPERMAX latet Bonus will increase it to 2.6 bil share from 1.3 bil. Comparable to Harta (3b) and Topglove (2.6b pre Bonus)

4. Comparable size and production capacity.

Super will close up the gap with Harta and Kossan in 2022 with plan to double expansion to 48.4 bil.
Expanding in caps turn aggressive after bumper qtr and years of obm network expansion.


5. Better appreciation of OBM-X advantage.

We see more attention and value appreciation in progress now.
All skepticism will be crushed with bumper profit of 800m - 1bil coming profit in QTR 1. Calculation here
 
 
Being an index stock in the abovementioned indexes will command a higher PE and support from major local and foreign fund.
a) FTSE Bursa hijrah shariah index - Indexed on  30th Juneyes
b) MSCI Global Index - To be indexed on 31stst Augyes
c) KLCT index -Condition has been met and believe end of year will be indexed. enlightened
 
We believe Supermax market caps with its leading peers will be closing and be on par as the abovementioned pointers being accomplished. Potentially reaching a 50 to 60 bilcaps as compared to HARTA 59 bil  and TG 76bil as of current valuation.
 
The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters due to its OBM advantage which allows them for dynamic pricing  and super margin capitalised in early period.

 

Appendix:

BEYONDFIT and BEYOND MASK https://www.facebook.com/AureliaGlovesCanada/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqwAh9Ta3rA

 
 
 
 
AVEO KOREA stocking up here:
 

 
 

 


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 
Labels: SUPERMX
  122 people like this.
 
zzzz52 A thousand appreciation to Freetospeak and CIA for contributing their time and effort to bring us this in depth analysis of Supermax. It will be a matter of time before investors realized the value of their biz model.

GLTA.
21/08/2020 9:06 PM
boonlim98 Good job sifu and CIA team
21/08/2020 9:07 PM
inPeace Good job. tq
21/08/2020 9:09 PM
Targeted Clap! Clap! Clap!
21/08/2020 9:18 PM
kktrade Great artical. Thank you!
21/08/2020 9:21 PM
andrew2020 Sifu freetospeak, well done!!!
21/08/2020 9:30 PM
flyingtomoon2020 @Freetospeak sifu, well done and thank you!!!
21/08/2020 9:33 PM
Munger Thank you
21/08/2020 9:42 PM
kltower like
21/08/2020 9:44 PM
terrylam84 IB Analyst busy compiling info here...
21/08/2020 9:52 PM
Vairocana9999 Sifu, a very comprehensive and excellent review. Thank you very much for compiling and sharing. 辛苦你和CiA成员了!
21/08/2020 10:01 PM
max super good job
21/08/2020 10:02 PM
JohnFarmer458 Well written informative article for current investors and potential investors
21/08/2020 10:05 PM
New1530 Thanks
21/08/2020 10:09 PM
vanness_lyh Superb analysis from @freetospeak, It makes me feel more clear about the capacity of Supermx compared with others, and the post-covid scenario is just superb, we hope it comes true in future, thank you.
21/08/2020 10:13 PM
Yahoo128 @freetospeak, much obliged for your great sharing. Supermx has a very fabulous biz model into the future. Will hold tight tight into the future too.
21/08/2020 10:26 PM
Thks1956 Crazy analysis from cia as usual. Now we need to buy more and cannot sell. Sob sob...
21/08/2020 10:36 PM
Mustovoi @Freetospeak..Thank you...
Must read during price correction.!!
21/08/2020 10:41 PM
Goldberg Net margin of 38% - the new normal for SUPERMAX post COVID - eye popping and jaw dropping margins - Yes, you reap what you sow some 12-15 years ago by founder DSST.
The OBM-X business model- from factory to end user = SUPER profit margin.
Supermax is a truly world class company. The pride of Malaysia.

Another excellent analysis brought to you by CIA-Freetospeak consortium.
21/08/2020 10:46 PM
2721 Too bad no money to sapu anymore to enjoy the explosive return in future..
21/08/2020 11:06 PM
cbmytrading This is super amazing analysis and informative article,i will benefit a lot from it...thank you so much sifu free and cia...really appreciate!
21/08/2020 11:08 PM
cbpenbrush Thanks Freetospeak and your fantastic team. This write up or analysis should be treated as the best and most reliable guidelines for us to invest in Supermx !
21/08/2020 11:29 PM
notleaving Thanks for the hardwork. Really appreciated.
21/08/2020 11:53 PM
UncleHuat61 thank you for taking the time and effort in writing this analysis, appreciate it !!
22/08/2020 1:15 AM
mcsuper Fantastic analysis
22/08/2020 1:15 AM
troy88 Another solid piece. Thanks Freetospeak.
22/08/2020 2:40 AM
Power1 Very good, like like like.... Thanks sifu
22/08/2020 5:23 AM
just_investor Like. Very informative. Thank you freetospeak & team
22/08/2020 7:10 AM
see2sea Good write up CiA! Like!
22/08/2020 9:16 AM
freetospeak Hav to like myself...lol..kudos to all CiA agents...cannot do without team work.
22/08/2020 9:25 AM
JIMSENG thanks
22/08/2020 11:14 AM
invest200 Thank you sifu free and the CiA. Excellent work! You provide valuable guidance to general public. This should be a reference to IB analysts as well.
22/08/2020 12:12 PM
probability To me what is interesting in this presentation of Post Covid scenario is..

at OEM margin of 12% used by free on above derivations, Top Glove with say an additional throughput of 40% (capacity expansion by 2022), will be having an EPS of around 40 cents per annum only (before Bonus issue)..

Even with PE 80, Top Glove TP = RM 32 (before bonus issue)

.......


It shows how conservatively the above TP for supermax had been derived..
22/08/2020 9:38 PM
probability and for Top Glove to expand capacity by 40% , it needs to spend almost double the capital Super needs for expanding to 48b by 2022
22/08/2020 9:45 PM
freetospeak Sifu prob r u trying to count the post covid scenwrio for tg?
22/08/2020 10:09 PM
probability yes sifu free.....is my judgement above valid?
22/08/2020 10:12 PM
freetospeak Sifu prob...got number to c clearer.if not hard to comprehend for layman.
22/08/2020 10:17 PM
probability ok let me try...may be tomorrow i post here if i could put in an easily understandable manner...

for now we can see below for TG:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7113.jsp

on second qtr of 2020, at 9% PAT margin, its EPS was 4.52

I try to see the effects of increasing margin to 12% and then raise sales by 40%....i got roughly 40 cents EPS only...

This is of course assuming TG maintains 100% at OEM sales price

A good place to check these on the Analyst Briefing of Supermax dated 9th Aug page 13 (the first 2 bar giving data for pre-covid ASP)
22/08/2020 10:24 PM
probability sorry sifu free, using your posting basis, with OEM having 1/3 of the OBM margin, TG will be deriving 1/3 of the above profit.

As such, extrapolated for its capacity expansion by 40%, its EPS will be 80 cents per annum (before bonus issue).

Its TP will be double the below value estimated earlier



Posted by probability > Aug 22, 2020 9:38 PM | Report Abuse X

To me what is interesting in this presentation of Post Covid scenario is..

at OEM margin of 12% used by free on above derivations, Top Glove with say an additional throughput of 40% (capacity expansion by 2022), will be having an EPS of around 40 cents per annum only (before Bonus issue)..

Even with PE 80, Top Glove TP = RM 32 (before bonus issue)

.......


It shows how conservatively the above TP for supermax had been derived..
22/08/2020 10:56 PM
JBond007 So happy to see this article.
Freetospeak you really are our Top Gun.
22/08/2020 11:02 PM
freetospeak Thanks sifu prob...appreciate your input...
23/08/2020 7:06 AM
pjseow Thank you freetospeak for your write up. I agree that Supermx should be reevaluated and accorded a higher PE on par with Topglove amd Harta with its OBM distribution channels which had proven to reap the benefits .The last.qtr result with 43% margin showed that supermx OBM model plus marketing restructuring with higher allocation to OBM and cutting off agents and middlemen yield a more superior margins than the other top 3 glove makers.
23/08/2020 7:31 AM
pjseow Thank you freetospeak for your write up. I agree that Supermx should be reevaluated and accorded a higher PE on par with Topglove amd Harta with its OBM distribution channels which had proven to reap the benefits .The last.qtr result with 43% margin showed that supermx OBM model plus marketing restructuring with higher allocation to OBM and cutting off agents and middlemen yield a more superior margins than the other top 3 glove makers.
23/08/2020 7:33 AM
newnewbie Tq Sifus for sharing
23/08/2020 12:47 PM
FutureGains ex after buy
23/08/2020 12:49 PM
GiantPanda I have just read the third time.

Insightful analysis! Great sharing!!

This is WHY you must own SUPERMX !!!
23/08/2020 1:33 PM
probability At current risk free interest rate of 1.8% and further interest rate cut before end of the year, and the fact that all other businesses will remain depressed until the pandemic is over (2 -3 years time)....you really cant see the interest rate direction reversing again for many years to come....

As such, its possible for Gloves stock like Super to deserve a PE of 40...after all its going to beat Harta's margin edge consistently going forward
23/08/2020 1:43 PM
pjseow Probability, based on Supermx Q4 2020 result analyst briefing, we can actually estimate the earnings of Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 2021.The informations from.slide 4, 9 ,13 and 14 provides pricing ,leadtimes and orders .These info enable us to estimate the increasing earnings of the next 4 qtrs.I estimated the earnings of next 4 qtrs of.approximately 620 million,775 million, 978 million and 1114 million respectively. Total earning for 2021 is 3.5 billion. My assumption is no capacity increase and no cost increase. Strictly based on ASP increase and monthly volume of 2 billion pcs.This translates into rm 2.57 per share.With just a PE of 15, the tgt price is rm 38.6 if we base on FY 2021 earning.
23/08/2020 2:59 PM
probability noted pjseow, i have seen you messages earlier on how delayed they are at realizing these ASPs...due to lead time

thanks for your usual deep analysis

Posted by pjseow > Aug 23, 2020 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, based on Supermx Q4 2020 result analyst briefing, we can actually estimate the earnings of Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 2021.The informations from.slide 4, 9 ,13 and 14 provides pricing ,leadtimes and orders .These info enable us to estimate the increasing earnings of the next 4 qtrs.I estimated the earnings of next 4 qtrs of.approximately 620 million,775 million, 978 million and 1114 million respectively. Total earning for 2021 is 3.5 billion. My assumption is no capacity increase and no cost increase. Strictly based on ASP increase and monthly volume of 2 billion pcs.This translates into rm 2.57 per share.With just a PE of 15, the tgt price is rm 38.6 if we base on FY 2021 earning.
23/08/2020 3:11 PM
secret2win Very good sharing and valueable
23/08/2020 6:27 PM

VACCINE OR WITHOUT = GLOVE STOCK RALLY !!!

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Tue, 18 Aug 2020, 6:48 PM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 


IMPACT OF VACCINE ON GLOVES DEMAND AND STOCK PRICES !!!


Above is the data of gloves export from 2000 until 2020 M6.

Wave after wave of pandemic, the export of medical gloves continues to rise….this is with or without the discovery of a Vaccine.

The 2nd year after an outbreak, export of glove can increase by about 30%~40% more. Take for instance of (i) year 2004 with 2006, the increase in export rose by 34.6%, and (ii) 2009 with 2011 the increase rose by about 40%

We name each rise and ebb a “Crest”. Depending on the severity of the outbreak, the immensity for each Crest varies. The more infectious and wider spread the virus, the longer and wider the Crest will be.

If we compare the earlier pandemics with Covid 19, Covid 19’s crest have not even begin yet!!

Should we apply our mathematical projections with reference to the earlier pandemics for Covid 19, this is what you will see.

 

It will at least take more than 12 months years before the Crest will begin ebb. Covid 19 is a lot more severe than all the earlier outbreaks combined.

To compare how previously an outbreaks will give an impact on export and also share prices; we can refer to this graph below using Topglove as a reference.

We have selected Topglove because it is OEM’s biggest producer and its export value correlates very closely to Malaysia’s medical glove export revenues.

Its share prices will continue to run for more than 12 months at least.

Here is our summary based on the data above;

Appearance of Vaccine = INCREASE demand for more gloves.

Complete Vaccination of whole world = minimum 2-3yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Control of pandemic announced by who = minimum 2-3 yrs from now.
Stock piling of PPE for strategic resource = 1 to 2 more yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Total expected high demand for gloves 4 to 5 yrs.

Elevated health awareness becomes a norm for Service, Airlines, Transportation, F & B etc. Its now become NEW norm .By wearing gloves, they are projecting a good and responsible image  beside being a safety SOP to be followed. All these resulted in super high demand for gloves. Even when Covid is under control.

No elimination for Covid is expected. So 3-6 mths PPE storage for every country will be ongoing forever.

Possible another outbreak of flu virus within these 5 years n beyond.
Glove stock is now an ESSENTIAL HEDGE in every funds portfolio.

Note:

The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for more testing , preparation, production, distribution and disposal according to WHO SOP for every human on earth now. Never b4 seen huge demand will be coming.

https://www.who.int/immunization/programmes_systems/supply_chain/evm/en/index2.html

Can check above link for more about gloves usage. 

The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for

1. More testing 

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution

5. Disposal 

according to WHO SOP for every human on earth now. 

I repeat is for EVERY humann being on earth...not 21 million patients

Never b4 seen HUGE demand will be coming.


Current SUPERMAX PE = 54 @ 20.80 is consider one of the lowest in the market of glove where PE is around 70 to 140.

Supermax, now with exceptional margin% with OBM model, certainly deserve a rerating on PE comparable to Harta, however we had used above PE extra conservatively

Comparison

TOPGLOVE = 108 (B4 Result)

HARTA = PE 107 (Ex.Result)

RUBBEREX = 83 (B4 Result)

KOSSAN = 89 (B4 Result)

COMFORT = 66 (B4 Result)

CAREPLUS = 66 (Ex Result)

 

SCENARIO 1

PE 20. RM759 MILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 759M.

749/400 = 24.20 x1.87 =TP 45.00  (ex-bonus TP 22.50)

 

SCENARIO 2

PE 20 . RM1.025 BILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 1025M 

1025/400 = 24.20 x2.56 =TP 65.60 (ex-bonus TP 32.80)

 

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters due to its OBM advantage which allows them for dynamic pricing  and super margin capitalised in early period.

We believe other Glove stock with exceptional performance in operation and profits will be OP as well during and post this unusual time.  

 

Press LIKE if u like our post. No 100 like no more future post.


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

 

Labels: TOPGLOV
  191 people like this.
 
NewFace LIKE...TQ
18/08/2020 8:54 PM
Phoenix88 Superb write up. A + from me......SUPER like...
Thank you for sharing Sifu and thanks to CIA team as well. Your analysis is always superb and it’s very much appreciated.
18/08/2020 9:00 PM
inPeace We can't praise freetospeak enough. You did a brilliant job. Tqvm
18/08/2020 9:02 PM
henry992 Tks for the calculation and sharing. There will be structural shift in glove demand especially in Asian countries. That is for sure.
18/08/2020 9:14 PM
bullstudent Great article, keep up the good sharing as always !
18/08/2020 9:17 PM
Lucky Investment Like like like!!!!
18/08/2020 9:20 PM
boonlim98 Thanks for the good write up. Sifu and CIA team
18/08/2020 9:23 PM
ceres22 + like
18/08/2020 9:28 PM
ffforever Thanks for sharing!
18/08/2020 9:32 PM
degaht like ++++
18/08/2020 9:33 PM
HG9999 100% like. Good job!
18/08/2020 9:34 PM
kmwong8711 Super like
18/08/2020 9:35 PM
Munger Thank you
18/08/2020 9:37 PM
superman_ Another great article! TQ Freetospeak!
18/08/2020 9:39 PM
mcoisthebest x100 like boss
18/08/2020 9:57 PM
Nobita Respect and appreciate it..tqvm
18/08/2020 9:58 PM
Iamnotasifu Great work, thanks Freetospeak sifu <3
18/08/2020 10:02 PM
andrew2020 Sifu Freetospeak, many thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
18/08/2020 10:06 PM
UncleHuat61 Thanks for Sharing, appreciate it !!
18/08/2020 10:12 PM
Thks1956 The supermax and tg community need more writers like this. Well done. This gives newbies very useful information and not easily wash out by IB
18/08/2020 10:23 PM
PureBULL ... if warren B buys TG n SPM, chia.boey.leow betul.betul all of US here in this GANG

GLOVE, a perpetual growing biz, is so cheap to warrant B
18/08/2020 10:41 PM
thteh Good Article
18/08/2020 11:06 PM
cbmytrading thank you for the analysis,thank you for sharing,very appreciate it!
18/08/2020 11:18 PM
Vairocana9999 Thank you very much sifu and your CiA team for this exceptional report and valuable info. I am still with you, holding tight Super and TG.
18/08/2020 11:28 PM
Mabel Meow Meow Meow Meow
18/08/2020 11:35 PM
manegto Your insight of glove stock and your unselfishness of sharing deserves respect from all of us here..btw i am a fan of you too :-)
18/08/2020 11:38 PM
see2sea Good article by CiA..VERY LIKE! How may I subscribe to your article freetospeak sifu? U have made everyone in Malaysia into a millionaire. Huat arr!!!!
18/08/2020 11:48 PM
matmon Tq sifu free to speak superb
19/08/2020 12:10 AM
liewtz06 Great Article Sifus, thank you for sharing insights substantiated with solid data.
19/08/2020 1:05 AM
troy88 This is a very well written piece. Thanks Freetospeak, keep up the good work!
19/08/2020 6:51 AM
spermx Really wanna thank u freetospeak sifu. U are our SUPER STAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
19/08/2020 7:05 AM
Activestream Thanks a lot Master Freetospeak as usual brilliant analysis blogs, which keep us forums here for supermx holders well inform & have super confidence with this companies performance.
19/08/2020 8:17 AM
Yahoo128 Kudos Sifu Freetospeak and CIA for your profound analysis.
19/08/2020 9:06 AM
PureBULL ... Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Aug 18, 2020 3:09 PM | Report Abuse

Msian mkt is very extremely retail driven.
Low price stocks fly maximum max UP.

TOPGLOV n SUPERMX should do WELL after ex BI date on Sep 3rd n 4th.

Aug 18, 2020 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

1st time 1st day TOPGLOV is having bigger vol value in rm than Supermx, still doing v well n better.

Someone BIG has just come into TG to speed up the flying.
n mentioned warren B is coming into GLOVES ?!?
hopefully that 2 local fun who micro daily trading be taken out of s/holders list completely.
TOPGLOV being # 1 glove plc has yet to enjoy a premium, INI KALI LAH.,.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The greatest glove stocks now :
# 1 Supermx
# 2 TOPGLOV
# 3 Carepls
# 4 Kossan, a far distance 4th

NB: there's NO vaccine physical product, best selling GLOVES yes
19/08/2020 9:49 AM
vinspace8 Well said, sir freetospeak. How can glove demand diminish with vaccine?

More orders would be coming in. The world population is in the billions (7.8B). What if vaccines need double or triple dosing?

The demand will surge even higher
19/08/2020 10:56 AM
cincaila 168 likes liao, more future post please XDDDD we all can 168
^ vaccine usually needs double/triple dosing. Unless they can find a way that triggers a lifelong immunity (which is rare).
19/08/2020 11:30 AM
moneygain Tks Sifu Freetospeak for ur generous sharing ~~
19/08/2020 12:03 PM
kytan Like. Is a good analysis
19/08/2020 12:15 PM
freetospeak freetospeak The world population is in the billions 7 x 2 (1 pair) x 2 shots = 28 billion gloves per yr. This is only for injection part under no.4 (distribution).

1. More testing

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution
28 billion per year
(if possible which i think cannot be done coz every country speed of vaccination will be different and shortage of gloves will slow down the process. so it will be spread over 2-3 yrs to complete )

5. Disposal
19/08/2020 12:54 PM
dalpinia LikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLike

100 Likes
19/08/2020 2:27 PM
probability very good estimation...thanks free

Posted by freetospeak > Aug 19, 2020 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak The world population is in the billions 7 x 2 (1 pair) x 2 shots = 28 billion gloves per yr. This is only for injection part under no.4 (distribution).

1. More testing

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution
28 billion per year
(if possible which i think cannot be done coz every country speed of vaccination will be different and shortage of gloves will slow down the process. so it will be spread over 2-3 yrs to complete )

5. Disposal
19/08/2020 4:26 PM
PureBULL ... Posted by PureBULL ... > Aug 19, 2020 5:09 PM | Report Abuse X

TOPGLOV the distinct world # 1 glove plc with 80.2 billion pcs p.a. now is surely to be invited by world giant IB, i.e.
GS, MS, CS or UBS to conduct a road.show in global financial centres of LONDON, NEW YORK N HONG KONG.

Watch out for this next life changing move n is coming very SOON .,.
19/08/2020 5:15 PM
freetospeak Thanks prob..and thanks everyone for the 183 likes n supporting CiA report.
19/08/2020 9:36 PM
schia48 @freetospeak Excellent analysis! Thank you for being the voice of reason above all the noise in the Supermax forum. Much appreciated.
19/08/2020 10:48 PM
Yahoo128 @freetospeak , many thanks for your CIA classified report. Thanks all the CIA agents too. Supermax will hv a good fortune in years to come.
20/08/2020 9:33 PM
PZOGRO Experts said still sometimes before glove bubbles burst .......huat arrr

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/20/bursa-dismisses-stock-market-bubble-burst
20/08/2020 10:02 PM
stocktrade101 I can guarantee you the share prices of Supermax and other gloves will DROP (big!) when there is a vaccine available for mass innoculation eventhough more gloves may be in demand. It's just human behaviour.
22/08/2020 3:11 PM
stockraider Time to take profit loh...!!

No guarantee guarantee....tipu olang loh...!!

One thing sure Vaccine is coming ... guarantee loh...!!

Posted by stocktrade101 > Aug 22, 2020 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

I can guarantee you the share prices of Supermax and other gloves will DROP (big!) when there is a vaccine available for mass innoculation eventhough more gloves may be in demand. It's just human behaviour.
22/08/2020 5:04 PM
stockraider Thats why very important vaccine 1st b4 glove loh...!!


Posted by freetospeak > Aug 22, 2020 5:05 PM | Report Abuse

no doctor will want carry the responsibilty of being accused of cross contamination especially during pandemic ...if there is enuff gloves no doc will try to save gloves. why they wan to take the risk.
22/08/2020 5:09 PM
stockraider Cansino an effective vaccine, China Military using loh...!!

China most important is military, they would not risk endangering them mah....!!


Posted by EatThis > Aug 22, 2020 5:09 PM | Report Abuse

An effective and working vaccine that is
22/08/2020 5:12 PM

SUPERMAX - Russia’s Vaccine Gamble vs Supermax Q1 Results

Author: freetospeak   |  Publish date: Wed, 12 Aug 2020, 9:00 AM


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 


Congratulation to all Supermax Shareholders !!! Salute to all Supermax Staff and Management !!!


 

Russia’s Vaccine Gamble vs Supermax Q1 Results

It is no surprise why the vaccine announced by President Putin bears the name of Sputnik V. This brings us back to the era at the dawn of the cold war between the Soviet Union and America or NATO.

It was the beginning of The Space Race!

Yes, Russia made it first by sending an object to space which was called Sputnik. It did nothing more than just to broadcast a single signal back to earth to show that they were ahead.

News for vaccine is bringing a lot of attention in the media lately but in reality its efficacy is yet to be known…..not at least in this short period of time. Sputnik V is just like Sputnik……doing nothing more than just global political theatrics.

Because of our general desire in anticipating for a quick solution to this pandemic, just like in the days of the cold war, super powers manipulates these information for political/strategic purposes…….and markets falls prey to it.

Coming back to the era of the cold war, you all may know how this story ended…..America managed to put a man on the moon and the Soviet Union collapsed.

CiA have tried to be bring you independent analysis. Our earlier estimate of Supermax’s Q4 results had an accuracy as follow;

Revenue Forecast vs Actual = 88% accuracy

PAT Percentage Forecast vs Actual = 95% accuracy

*PAT Forecast vs Actual = 85%   *If taking into consideration the PAT 120mil brought forward to Q1, then it’s the PAT Forecast Accuracy is about 90%.

This is AAA Class analyst report.

Vaccine or no Vaccine here….Supermax will win. It will win BIG.

Here is why we think so



Notes on ASP:

ASP USD100 - 120 for Nitrile might be the long term average post covid for medical gloves due to structural shift in demand and higher awareness in low health consciousness developing countries. Weakening dollars causing inflation will only push up the gloves asp. Rate of  new supply  will not catch up with the huge increase in demand as building new lines are slow .Especially when it comes to FDA certified medical gloves. May be only 30% of the new production coming online in the next few yrs are FDA certifed. And majority comes from Big 4 of Malaysia.Vaccine does not mean immediate control of pandemic.  Given the low efficacy of 50%-60% control of pandemic at world wide levels will take many years.

Sustaining Profit for Supermax.

Super will increase caps by 85% by 2022 and while maintaning post covid of ASP USD 100. Super will still be able to acchieve the growing quarterly profit into the forseeable future. Do not forget even without covid. the gloves market is already growing by 10% annually. With 2 x Capacity and Full OBM-X streamlined margin .Super is in the best position to be in a unforseen growth mode.

SCENARIO 1

PE 20. RM759 MILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 759M.

749/400 = 24.20 x1.87 =TP 45.00  (ex-bonus TP 22.50)

 

SCENARIO 2

PE 20 . RM1.025 BILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 1025M 

1025/400 = 24.20 x2.56 =TP 65.60 (ex-bonus TP 32.80)

 

SOME POSITIVE NOTES:

New Production lines

The latest Lines with 1.1 bill annual capacity had been commisoned and running in August. The next 1.1 bil Line will be ready in Oct to Dec.

New Venture

Annouced venturing into mask production in malaysia. 8 million units/month beginning QTR 4. What caught our attention is the collaboration with Canada Government. They hav a BEYOND Mask product which was launched recently. Another high margin product from Aurelia Canada. Dun be surprise there might be more government collaborations coming for Supermax. More info here:

https://www.shapeshift3d.com/post/shapeshift3d-announces-partnership-with-aurelia-for-the-commercialization-of-the-beyond-fit-mask

https://mybeyondmask.com/

 

Postive cash flow

For the current Qtr 4. Supermax had shown explosive Cash generating abilities. We can expect more of this to happen for each incoming Qtrs. 4 x 1 billion = 4billion cash richer after 4 qtrs. The smart management will definitely put it into good use for better returns to the company and shareholders.

Net change in cash & cash equivalents 956 million

Cash & cash equivalent at end of period 1.180 Billion

 

Prepayment 

Prepayment received from customers 892 Million. Deposit of 30-50% was received. If we take 40% as average this would imply a massive 2.23 Billion of pending orders. If we take 1.5 qtrs to fulfil, it will translate into a 1.67 billion of revenue each QTR. Further supporting our projection figure of QTR1.

 

Dividends Declared/Proposed. 

The Board of Directors has proposed a final single tier dividend via a share dividend distribution on the basis of 1 treasury share for every 45 ordinary shares held in respect of the financial year ended 30 June 2020, fractions to be disregarded. The distribution would be subject to shareholder approval at the FYE 06/2020 Annual General Meeting

 

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters.

 

Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

 

Labels: SUPERMX
  55 people like this.
 
Thks1956 awesome analysis
12/08/2020 9:09 AM
Lucky Investment I gave the 1st like. Yay! :)
12/08/2020 2:14 PM
Activestream Thanks FreetoSpeak sifu as usual will always support you.
12/08/2020 2:15 PM
al8800 thanks for the detail scenarios analysis. Great job !
12/08/2020 2:16 PM
noobietrader69 good, only stupid people will sell
12/08/2020 2:16 PM
GiantPanda Excellent! World class analysis
12/08/2020 2:18 PM
cbpenbrush Support u always !
12/08/2020 2:18 PM
Targeted Stubbornly sticking to my original game plan, no thoughts of selling until December
12/08/2020 2:20 PM
DJoker89 very very details with some fact.
Thanks SiFU...TQ TQ

as always you are the best.
12/08/2020 2:20 PM
DinKetam give you MEGA likes
12/08/2020 2:22 PM
DJoker89 by just looking at the positive notes, im already at the moon
12/08/2020 2:22 PM
batman666 thanks for the write up!
12/08/2020 2:22 PM
stockarmy Thanks bro
12/08/2020 2:28 PM
see2sea VERY VERY LIKE AHH!!!! Must publish in newspaper already!!!
12/08/2020 2:29 PM
williamtkb Buy from 22 to 18. Until out of cash now.
12/08/2020 2:34 PM
Goldberg Brilliant analysis. Thanks Sifu freetospeak!
12/08/2020 2:38 PM
ninjavan1 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/xiaoqing88/2020-08-12-story-h1511672920-New_Vaccine_goes_Viral_in_China.jsp

is this true??? please...im losing much on supermx topglove
12/08/2020 2:40 PM
FairTalk A very good piece of detailed write up. Thank You very much for the hard work done.
12/08/2020 2:45 PM
Invest to greatness $$$$ Thanks wonderful guy
12/08/2020 2:47 PM
Power1 Thank you sifu for the great article.
12/08/2020 2:49 PM
super_newbie and vaccine yet to get official WHO approval and mass production, but Supermax had confirm earned estimated 400mil up to 12 august for Q1FY21.
12/08/2020 2:53 PM
boonlim98 Thank you for the analysis.
12/08/2020 3:06 PM
ali baba Thank you for the analysis.
12/08/2020 3:13 PM
Smile333 Thank you so much sifu freetospeak.
12/08/2020 3:21 PM
infinity888 This post deserves to be TOP 1 trending post
12/08/2020 3:33 PM
Vairocana9999 A magnificent and excellent analysis. Thanks a lot for the hard work, sifu.
12/08/2020 3:50 PM
greatful21 Thank you all CIA sifu.....
12/08/2020 5:35 PM
patrico8 Another well written and detailed article. Current price of RM 18.88 presents a great opportunity to top up, though not sure where the floor is. Spare fund on standby, just in case.
12/08/2020 5:39 PM
Equityengineer Those days once it’s closed 8.88 now 18.88 .. rocket up
12/08/2020 6:03 PM
Hockey Great article with detail calculation.
Let those investors with strong confident in the company enjoy the end result. Thanks for sharing
12/08/2020 7:16 PM
patrico8 Look at all the current quarterly reports, majority are in red, except glove counters. The champion is Supermx with 2553% increase yoy. This is a super share counter.
12/08/2020 7:27 PM
thteh Good article to share with all who hold supermax shares.Thank you
12/08/2020 8:28 PM
kytan Thanks. Is great and best simulation model. The selling price still increase 30% for aug and sep. Also Block B plant 12 will contribute Q1 output
12/08/2020 8:46 PM
Godblessyou Good analysis. Thumbs up to all the CIA Sifu. God bless you
12/08/2020 8:49 PM
inPeace Congrats freetospeak. You are always brilliant. Tqvm
12/08/2020 8:52 PM
probability EPS of Super is 5 x times higher than HARTA for the same quarter ending June 20'

Supermax has double the layer of margin with OBM

The margin edge that Harta had with AMG, Super has it twice the strength with OBM

Harta is dependent on U.S for 40% of its revenue.

Supermax has established its network worldwide, Canada, Japan, Brazil and growing....

Even if you use Harta's pre-covid price of 5.5, Supermax share price should be worth 27 plus now...

Cant Supermax earn 6 x Harta's pre-covid eps of 3 cents per qtr with its increasing capacity going forward when the pandemic is over?

Thats just 16 cents per qtr to justify RM 27 with Harta's pre-covid PE
12/08/2020 9:01 PM
andrew2020 Sifu freetospeak, bravo!!!
12/08/2020 9:44 PM
zzzz52 Through this partnership, Aurelia will take over the entirety of the commercialization responsibilities of the Beyond-Fit™ protective mask, from manufacturing to distribution, and on a global scale

WOW
12/08/2020 9:45 PM
pputeh Quote" Prepayment

Prepayment received from customers 892 Million. Deposit of 30-50% was received. If we take 40% as average this would imply a massive 2.23 Billion of pending orders. If we take 1.5 qtrs to fulfil, it will translate into a 1.67 billion of revenue each QTR. Further supporting our projection figure of QTR1. Unquote.

What about the above. Money already paid bf orders received. this is money in the kitty already. Thanks Sifu. Need to top up
12/08/2020 9:46 PM
freetospeak Good point CiA Agent @probability...


probability EPS of Super is 5 x times higher than HARTA for the same quarter ending June 20'

Supermax has double the layer of margin with OBM

The margin edge that Harta had with AMG, Super has it twice the strength with OBM

Harta is dependent on U.S for 40% of its revenue.

Supermax has established its network worldwide, Canada, Japan, Brazil and growing....

Even if you use Harta's pre-covid price of 5.5, Supermax share price should be worth 27 plus now...

Cant Supermax earn 6 x Harta's pre-covid eps of 3 cents per qtr with its increasing capacity going forward when the pandemic is over?

Thats just 16 cents per qtr to justify RM 27 with Harta's pre-covid PE
12/08/2020 9:01 PM
12/08/2020 9:55 PM
probability the below is a very rational argument sifu

Posted by freetospeak > Aug 12, 2020 9:17 PM | Report Abuse

I do not know when the pandemic will end. But i know the profit for gloves company will not drop due to pandemic over.it will be sustained by growing capacity and a higher post covid price than precovid.those who imagine the asp will drop bak to precovid level doesnt know how the glove market pricing works. Jus giv a easy example.if super hav 50 billion caps by 2022, it only need 10 sen margin per gloves it can get 800 to 1 billion profit each qtr . 10 sen profit is only usd 50/k.

Do u think supermax cannot sell more than usd50 post covid? B4 covid distributor in us is selling above this price for your info. So thats the reason super is building 5 plant at once. If u hav eliminated all agent n middleman. Super is already the king of obmX.
12/08/2020 10:13 PM
SelfMadeMillionaire russian vaccine is a joke, nobody takes them seriously.
12/08/2020 11:21 PM
qwz2604 big thumb up to your analysis and write up sifu @freetospeak. Support you all the way!
12/08/2020 11:38 PM
sniper123 thks free for your insightful thoughts on the above article but what is of concern is suddenly every country also claim they have the vaccine not only russia but USA, PRC, Germany, etc by early 2021. And since equity markets are forward looking by at least 6mths, this has generated a very negative rippling effect on the rubber glove stocks as retailers and perhaps instituitions as well will ultimately decide (and ie if they have not decided already) to take some $$&$ off the table.
12/08/2020 11:49 PM
Picanto Production capacity at end of Jun already 24b/annum or 2bil a month. Under Scenario 1, profit for NG in Q3 should be 2000 * 3 * 0.8 * 4.2 * 60.48= RM1,219,276,800.
Cost per unit: Take Q2 as an example, operating cost 418mil, production per quarter 6bil, cost per 1k unit= RM70/USD17. Effective tax rate is lower as well (around 21-22%).....
13/08/2020 12:00 AM
liewtz06 Freetospeak sifu, thank you very much for your informative insights. Always supported by facts and free to view by public. You are such a kind person.
Thanks.
13/08/2020 12:58 AM
staypositive Thank you SIR for the effort!
13/08/2020 1:18 AM
Targeted Better and better! Keep it up bros!
13/08/2020 7:08 PM


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