Highlights

freetospeak

Author: freetospeak   |   Latest post: Fri, 4 Sep 2020, 10:31 AM

 

Supermax OBM - The George Soros bet ?

Author:   |    Publish date:


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 


For some Supermax shareholders, this coming Monday could be like the 16th Sept 1992….the day where George Soros bet big against the British Pound Sterling. Will history repeat here with Supermax results?

For those that did not know the outcome, he pocketed over a billion dollars and almost brought the Bank of England to its knees…winkWill critics be proven wrong and believers redeemed?

To allay your concerns, the Consortium of Independent Analyst will present here some factual data. Whether this would be a hints of its super performance or just a bane, that is up for you to judge.

The graph below shows the Actual Medical Glove Export Value from Malaysia ranging from 2019 until June 2020, and mathematically projected from July until Dec 2020 the latter also known forecast. 

 

These information is extracted from statistical export data of the relevant government department of Malaysia. It is based on FOB value which is close approximation to the OEM value.

How do we know if the forecast is correct?  Well, let's examine this further. Many of us are aware on the rapid increase of new Covid cases globally. Here is a graph extracted from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

If we superimpose the patter of the increase in number of cases with the forecast of glove exports, here is what you will find;

 

 

It is no coincidence that both patterns show a very close correlation.Here is our consensus with results for Supermax in the near future.

Revenue increase follows the share of business contribution by Supermax to the total export value from Malaysia.

 

 

PAT Margin too increases, and so will the PAT values is driven by ASP increases while cost still maintaining almost the same.

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters.

 

 

Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

Share this
Labels: SUPERMX

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
SUPERMX 8.41 +0.58 (7.41%) 55,939,300 

  37 people like this.
 
OTB Posted by freetospeak > Aug 8, 2020 9:24 PM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-08-story-h151161...

Pls support..another post by CiA team work.
----------------------------
Based on revenue = RM 1.055 billion.
PAT = 528 million.

Revenue Q4 2020 1055000
Operating expenses 353018
Finance cost -3,527
Share of profit 4575
Profit before tax 703,030
Income tax (24%) 168727
Profit after tax 534,303
Forex income 4,920
Total profit after tax (PAT) 539,223
Income distribute to owner (98%) 528438
Number of share issued 1360000
EPS Q4 2020 0.389
Using 71 million = 4.30
PAT = 528 million. The target price 31.98

Thank you.
08/08/2020 9:39 PM
superman_ Excellence example for all who are risk taker, and in return with great reward! We are not even in the risk for current glove stock extreme demand in global market!
08/08/2020 9:40 PM
andrew2020 Sifu Freetospeak & Sifu OTB, great work and many thanks.
08/08/2020 10:00 PM
see2sea wow..CIA..respect your hardwork!
08/08/2020 10:15 PM
Goldberg A George Soros bet? Well, far from it. In fact I would regard it a safe bet. This is mainly due to 6 factors

1- Supermax's business model ie OBM- very high profit margin compared to the OEM model.
2- Supermax's ability to increase the ASP probably on a weekly basis.
3- Sell in forward and collecting 30-50% deposit to lock in sales. Apparently the lead time now is 12-15 months.
4- Glove are in short supply and the pandemic is spreading aggressively with no easing in sight.
5- Supermax's share price will be well supported by exponential growth in earnings for the next 4 quarters or so.
6.-Most scientists believe that Covid 19 will be around for a long time.

The projected PAT of RM475 is realistic.

A good article to mull over before the results are out on Monday.

Thank you CIA. Cheers!
08/08/2020 10:50 PM
Vairocana9999 Freetospeak Sifu, well well well, CiA, I love this abrev. Ha ha.

Thank you very much for your hard work and research.

Yes, more excellent quarters due to come for Super, for sure.
08/08/2020 11:05 PM
Kukuman Good job! But I have a problem with revenue MYR1.055 bil. Good try!
08/08/2020 11:18 PM
BaconGuest wow turnover spike over 50 degree steep....going to see price movement tomorrow in historic moment ...... well done CIA ......wakakakaaka !
09/08/2020 12:31 AM
Power1 Thank you sifu freetospeak and OTB.
09/08/2020 5:34 AM
Mr_Kiah On 20 Jan 20 Monday, supermax price $ 1.31 (before the big jump in volume and price based on chart)

On 7 Aug 20 Friday, supermax share price $ 22.92


Multiplier = $ 22.92 / $1.31 = 16.8


2nd Qtr ending Dec 19 which announced 25 Feb 20 = RM 30.2 million

4th Qtr ending Jun 20 which announced 10 Aug 20 = RM 30.2 x 16.8


Minimum net profit = RM 507.4 million
09/08/2020 5:51 AM
Mr_Kiah If under RM 507.4 million means below expectations
09/08/2020 5:52 AM
freetospeak CLARIFICATION. I DIN POST THE below INFO. FAKE ID.

What will be the main points of SUPERMX August EGM?

1. Shift to 100% OBM
2. Non-refundable contracts (in the event of acts of God or sudden vaccine completion)
3. Penetration to other health industries (vaccine development among others)
4. Implementation of Q4 Dividends AND Bonus Shares (to be distributed together)
09/08/2020 7:31 AM
stocktrade101 You better be right about supermax earnings, otherwise your name will go down in infamy.
09/08/2020 8:08 AM
stock_investor Agree stocktrade101. Haha u either become legend or masuk longkang.
09/08/2020 8:30 AM
inPeace Good job freetospeak. I don't expect it to be perfect as nobody has a magical crystal ball but your assumption, projection and conclusion based on current data is good enough. Tqvm
09/08/2020 8:41 AM
Kukuman Posted by Kukuman > Aug 9, 2020 9:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a)
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)
09/08/2020 9:49 AM
freetospeak Kukuman...i pm u also no respond...lol
09/08/2020 9:53 AM
freetospeak Kukuman...if result come out 750m...u still need godson or not...
09/08/2020 9:57 AM
kytan Good job freetospeak. Below few data can support u.
https://www.magzter.com/article/Newspaper/The-Philippine-Star/World-Using-129-B-Disposable-Masks-65-B-Gloves-Monthly the world shortage 7 month of glove

And
https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc current Q sHipment is bigger than sum of last 3 Q to US
09/08/2020 10:34 AM
supersaiyan3 Freetospeak, well written.

For those who can get (project) 3x (2.36x to be exact) turnover, really zzz

Joe Biden syndrome?
09/08/2020 11:16 AM
Goldberg Supermaxx shipment to USA increased by > 100% - Q on Q.
Q4 turnover may be double or more - Rm1,055 mil turnover does hold water.
Pls refer to link below.
----------------------------------------------
https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc
09/08/2020 11:47 AM
inPeace Posted by Kukuman > Aug 9, 2020 9:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a)
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)
09/08/2020 12:32 PM
Goldberg Posted by Kukuman > Aug 9, 2020 9:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)
09/08/2020 12:39 PM
PZOGRO Posted by Kukuman > Aug 9, 2020 9:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)Pzogro:838m
09/08/2020 1:24 PM
katsul51 et do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b) Katsul51- 455M
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)
6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)Pzogro:838m
09/08/2020 1:24 PM
09/08/2020 4:24 PM
pedang comparing to hartalega qr.. anything 300m++ just ok 4me
09/08/2020 5:48 PM
stocktrade101 I say it matches consensus estimate.
09/08/2020 6:33 PM
Targeted ???
09/08/2020 11:38 PM
moneykj Gloves and covid 19?
I already converted my Notion to Gold related Orion, high share transaction beneficiary counter Eforce and possible rto Media.
10/08/2020 1:28 AM
freetospeak Above is fake news..
10/08/2020 7:45 AM
luckmaxima Anyone have info when is the date bonus 1-1?Tq
10/08/2020 10:56 AM
zzzz52 kudos to CIA.
10/08/2020 8:55 PM
sensonic STRANGE , NOW BURSA ONLY ISSUE UMA ON LIMIT UP COUNTERS
10/08/2020 10:07 PM
stock_investor Supermx supposed to earn 520m this quarter but did not include 120m this quarter. Next quarter will be explosive earnings btw 800m to 900m.
11/08/2020 10:26 PM


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
Earn MQ Points while trading with MQ Traders Group
MQ Affiliate
Earn side income from MQ Affiliate Program
 
 

525  363  569  632 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 MTRONIC 0.085+0.005 
 ASB 0.17-0.02 
 MNC 0.045-0.005 
 HLT 1.67+0.14 
 KANGER 0.235-0.025 
 MTOUCHE 0.065-0.005 
 VSOLAR 0.040.00 
 CAREPLS 3.15+0.33 
 MMAG-WB 0.13-0.04 
 TOPGLOV 8.55+0.53 

FEATURED POSTS

1. The Equity Market Index Benchmark in Malaysia CMS
2. Trading Scenarios of Derivatives Bursa Derivatives Education Series
3. Derivatives 101 Bursa Derivatives Education Series
4. Why Trade FKLI? Bursa Derivatives Education Series
5. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
PARTNERS & BROKERS