Highlights

freetospeak

Author: freetospeak   |   Latest post: Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 9:18 AM

 

VACCINE OR WITHOUT = GLOVE STOCK RALLY !!!

Author:   |    Publish date:


CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1 


IMPACT OF VACCINE ON GLOVES DEMAND AND STOCK PRICES !!!


Above is the data of gloves export from 2000 until 2020 M6.

Wave after wave of pandemic, the export of medical gloves continues to rise….this is with or without the discovery of a Vaccine.

The 2nd year after an outbreak, export of glove can increase by about 30%~40% more. Take for instance of (i) year 2004 with 2006, the increase in export rose by 34.6%, and (ii) 2009 with 2011 the increase rose by about 40%

We name each rise and ebb a “Crest”. Depending on the severity of the outbreak, the immensity for each Crest varies. The more infectious and wider spread the virus, the longer and wider the Crest will be.

If we compare the earlier pandemics with Covid 19, Covid 19’s crest have not even begin yet!!

Should we apply our mathematical projections with reference to the earlier pandemics for Covid 19, this is what you will see.

 

It will at least take more than 12 months years before the Crest will begin ebb. Covid 19 is a lot more severe than all the earlier outbreaks combined.

To compare how previously an outbreaks will give an impact on export and also share prices; we can refer to this graph below using Topglove as a reference.

We have selected Topglove because it is OEM’s biggest producer and its export value correlates very closely to Malaysia’s medical glove export revenues.

Its share prices will continue to run for more than 12 months at least.

Here is our summary based on the data above;

Appearance of Vaccine = INCREASE demand for more gloves.

Complete Vaccination of whole world = minimum 2-3yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Control of pandemic announced by who = minimum 2-3 yrs from now.
Stock piling of PPE for strategic resource = 1 to 2 more yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Total expected high demand for gloves 4 to 5 yrs.

Elevated health awareness becomes a norm for Service, Airlines, Transportation, F & B etc. Its now become NEW norm .By wearing gloves, they are projecting a good and responsible image  beside being a safety SOP to be followed. All these resulted in super high demand for gloves. Even when Covid is under control.

No elimination for Covid is expected. So 3-6 mths PPE storage for every country will be ongoing forever.

Possible another outbreak of flu virus within these 5 years n beyond.
Glove stock is now an ESSENTIAL HEDGE in every funds portfolio.

Note:

The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for more testing , preparation, production, distribution and disposal according to WHO SOP for every human on earth now. Never b4 seen huge demand will be coming.

https://www.who.int/immunization/programmes_systems/supply_chain/evm/en/index2.html

Can check above link for more about gloves usage. 

The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for

1. More testing 

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution

5. Disposal 

according to WHO SOP for every human on earth now. 

I repeat is for EVERY humann being on earth...not 21 million patients

Never b4 seen HUGE demand will be coming.


Current SUPERMAX PE = 54 @ 20.80 is consider one of the lowest in the market of glove where PE is around 70 to 140.

Supermax, now with exceptional margin% with OBM model, certainly deserve a rerating on PE comparable to Harta, however we had used above PE extra conservatively

Comparison

TOPGLOVE = 108 (B4 Result)

HARTA = PE 107 (Ex.Result)

RUBBEREX = 83 (B4 Result)

KOSSAN = 89 (B4 Result)

COMFORT = 66 (B4 Result)

CAREPLUS = 66 (Ex Result)

 

SCENARIO 1

PE 20. RM759 MILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 759M.

749/400 = 24.20 x1.87 =TP 45.00  (ex-bonus TP 22.50)

 

SCENARIO 2

PE 20 . RM1.025 BILLION PROFIT

Base on pat 400M to 1025M 

1025/400 = 24.20 x2.56 =TP 65.60 (ex-bonus TP 32.80)

 

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters due to its OBM advantage which allows them for dynamic pricing  and super margin capitalised in early period.

We believe other Glove stock with exceptional performance in operation and profits will be OP as well during and post this unusual time.  

 

Press LIKE if u like our post. No 100 like no more future post.


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 

 

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Labels: TOPGLOV

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
TOPGLOV 8.70 -0.20 (2.25%) 33,599,300 

  191 people like this.
 
NewFace LIKE...TQ
18/08/2020 8:54 PM
Phoenix88 Superb write up. A + from me......SUPER like...
Thank you for sharing Sifu and thanks to CIA team as well. Your analysis is always superb and it’s very much appreciated.
18/08/2020 9:00 PM
inPeace We can't praise freetospeak enough. You did a brilliant job. Tqvm
18/08/2020 9:02 PM
henry992 Tks for the calculation and sharing. There will be structural shift in glove demand especially in Asian countries. That is for sure.
18/08/2020 9:14 PM
bullstudent Great article, keep up the good sharing as always !
18/08/2020 9:17 PM
Lucky Investment Like like like!!!!
18/08/2020 9:20 PM
boonlim98 Thanks for the good write up. Sifu and CIA team
18/08/2020 9:23 PM
ceres22 + like
18/08/2020 9:28 PM
ffforever Thanks for sharing!
18/08/2020 9:32 PM
degaht like ++++
18/08/2020 9:33 PM
HG9999 100% like. Good job!
18/08/2020 9:34 PM
kmwong8711 Super like
18/08/2020 9:35 PM
Munger Thank you
18/08/2020 9:37 PM
superman_ Another great article! TQ Freetospeak!
18/08/2020 9:39 PM
mcoisthebest x100 like boss
18/08/2020 9:57 PM
Nobita Respect and appreciate it..tqvm
18/08/2020 9:58 PM
Iamnotasifu Great work, thanks Freetospeak sifu <3
18/08/2020 10:02 PM
andrew2020 Sifu Freetospeak, many thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
18/08/2020 10:06 PM
UncleHuat61 Thanks for Sharing, appreciate it !!
18/08/2020 10:12 PM
Thks1956 The supermax and tg community need more writers like this. Well done. This gives newbies very useful information and not easily wash out by IB
18/08/2020 10:23 PM
PureBULL ... if warren B buys TG n SPM, chia.boey.leow betul.betul all of US here in this GANG

GLOVE, a perpetual growing biz, is so cheap to warrant B
18/08/2020 10:41 PM
thteh Good Article
18/08/2020 11:06 PM
cbmytrading thank you for the analysis,thank you for sharing,very appreciate it!
18/08/2020 11:18 PM
Vairocana9999 Thank you very much sifu and your CiA team for this exceptional report and valuable info. I am still with you, holding tight Super and TG.
18/08/2020 11:28 PM
Mabel Meow Meow Meow Meow
18/08/2020 11:35 PM
manegto Your insight of glove stock and your unselfishness of sharing deserves respect from all of us here..btw i am a fan of you too :-)
18/08/2020 11:38 PM
see2sea Good article by CiA..VERY LIKE! How may I subscribe to your article freetospeak sifu? U have made everyone in Malaysia into a millionaire. Huat arr!!!!
18/08/2020 11:48 PM
matmon Tq sifu free to speak superb
19/08/2020 12:10 AM
liewtz06 Great Article Sifus, thank you for sharing insights substantiated with solid data.
19/08/2020 1:05 AM
troy88 This is a very well written piece. Thanks Freetospeak, keep up the good work!
19/08/2020 6:51 AM
spermx Really wanna thank u freetospeak sifu. U are our SUPER STAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
19/08/2020 7:05 AM
Activestream Thanks a lot Master Freetospeak as usual brilliant analysis blogs, which keep us forums here for supermx holders well inform & have super confidence with this companies performance.
19/08/2020 8:17 AM
Yahoo128 Kudos Sifu Freetospeak and CIA for your profound analysis.
19/08/2020 9:06 AM
PureBULL ... Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Aug 18, 2020 3:09 PM | Report Abuse

Msian mkt is very extremely retail driven.
Low price stocks fly maximum max UP.

TOPGLOV n SUPERMX should do WELL after ex BI date on Sep 3rd n 4th.

Aug 18, 2020 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

1st time 1st day TOPGLOV is having bigger vol value in rm than Supermx, still doing v well n better.

Someone BIG has just come into TG to speed up the flying.
n mentioned warren B is coming into GLOVES ?!?
hopefully that 2 local fun who micro daily trading be taken out of s/holders list completely.
TOPGLOV being # 1 glove plc has yet to enjoy a premium, INI KALI LAH.,.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The greatest glove stocks now :
# 1 Supermx
# 2 TOPGLOV
# 3 Carepls
# 4 Kossan, a far distance 4th

NB: there's NO vaccine physical product, best selling GLOVES yes
19/08/2020 9:49 AM
vinspace8 Well said, sir freetospeak. How can glove demand diminish with vaccine?

More orders would be coming in. The world population is in the billions (7.8B). What if vaccines need double or triple dosing?

The demand will surge even higher
19/08/2020 10:56 AM
cincaila 168 likes liao, more future post please XDDDD we all can 168
^ vaccine usually needs double/triple dosing. Unless they can find a way that triggers a lifelong immunity (which is rare).
19/08/2020 11:30 AM
moneygain Tks Sifu Freetospeak for ur generous sharing ~~
19/08/2020 12:03 PM
kytan Like. Is a good analysis
19/08/2020 12:15 PM
freetospeak freetospeak The world population is in the billions 7 x 2 (1 pair) x 2 shots = 28 billion gloves per yr. This is only for injection part under no.4 (distribution).

1. More testing

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution
28 billion per year
(if possible which i think cannot be done coz every country speed of vaccination will be different and shortage of gloves will slow down the process. so it will be spread over 2-3 yrs to complete )

5. Disposal
19/08/2020 12:54 PM
dalpinia LikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLikeLike

100 Likes
19/08/2020 2:27 PM
probability very good estimation...thanks free

Posted by freetospeak > Aug 19, 2020 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

freetospeak The world population is in the billions 7 x 2 (1 pair) x 2 shots = 28 billion gloves per yr. This is only for injection part under no.4 (distribution).

1. More testing

2. Preparation

3. Production

4. Distribution
28 billion per year
(if possible which i think cannot be done coz every country speed of vaccination will be different and shortage of gloves will slow down the process. so it will be spread over 2-3 yrs to complete )

5. Disposal
19/08/2020 4:26 PM
PureBULL ... Posted by PureBULL ... > Aug 19, 2020 5:09 PM | Report Abuse X

TOPGLOV the distinct world # 1 glove plc with 80.2 billion pcs p.a. now is surely to be invited by world giant IB, i.e.
GS, MS, CS or UBS to conduct a road.show in global financial centres of LONDON, NEW YORK N HONG KONG.

Watch out for this next life changing move n is coming very SOON .,.
19/08/2020 5:15 PM
freetospeak Thanks prob..and thanks everyone for the 183 likes n supporting CiA report.
19/08/2020 9:36 PM
schia48 @freetospeak Excellent analysis! Thank you for being the voice of reason above all the noise in the Supermax forum. Much appreciated.
19/08/2020 10:48 PM
Yahoo128 @freetospeak , many thanks for your CIA classified report. Thanks all the CIA agents too. Supermax will hv a good fortune in years to come.
20/08/2020 9:33 PM
PZOGRO Experts said still sometimes before glove bubbles burst .......huat arrr

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/20/bursa-dismisses-stock-market-bubble-burst
20/08/2020 10:02 PM
stocktrade101 I can guarantee you the share prices of Supermax and other gloves will DROP (big!) when there is a vaccine available for mass innoculation eventhough more gloves may be in demand. It's just human behaviour.
22/08/2020 3:11 PM
stockraider Time to take profit loh...!!

No guarantee guarantee....tipu olang loh...!!

One thing sure Vaccine is coming ... guarantee loh...!!

Posted by stocktrade101 > Aug 22, 2020 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

I can guarantee you the share prices of Supermax and other gloves will DROP (big!) when there is a vaccine available for mass innoculation eventhough more gloves may be in demand. It's just human behaviour.
22/08/2020 5:04 PM
stockraider Thats why very important vaccine 1st b4 glove loh...!!


Posted by freetospeak > Aug 22, 2020 5:05 PM | Report Abuse

no doctor will want carry the responsibilty of being accused of cross contamination especially during pandemic ...if there is enuff gloves no doc will try to save gloves. why they wan to take the risk.
22/08/2020 5:09 PM
stockraider Cansino an effective vaccine, China Military using loh...!!

China most important is military, they would not risk endangering them mah....!!


Posted by EatThis > Aug 22, 2020 5:09 PM | Report Abuse

An effective and working vaccine that is
22/08/2020 5:12 PM


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