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freetospeak

Author: freetospeak   |   Latest post: Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 9:18 AM

 

topGLOVE SUPERmax BULL COMING !!!!

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CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST

@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1@fightingdragons

topGLOVE SUPERmax BULL COMING !!!! 


 

 

From the above BULL market cycle.

We are exactly at the BEAR TRAP stage = Correction fed by overvaluation concerns & premature fears that cycle has ended.

Here is our basis to believe so.

We extracted the chart of Supermax and tested a few models to against this cycle.

Below is the line chart in Weeks. 

And this is what we have discovered;

The same pattern is also observed with Topglove’s Weekly chart as you can see here;

That is when majority of retailers are escaping without knowledge that what the future is forthcoming. Under the scenario that ASP will peak in  JUN 2021 and sustaining til the end of 2021. Gloves company will continue to enjoy super and unimaginable profit til 2022. During this time, please be aware that many companies in Bursa will continue to report lacklustre or even heavy losses due to covid rampage.

Why we believe a super bull market is coming for glove stock. Here is our viewpoint taking Supermax as an example:

SUPERMAX OBM-X ASP USD280 by JUN 2021.

With current asp of USD180 in August, projecting a US$10 increase per month. ASP could reach USD250 to USD280 by April to Jun 2021.

 

we jus take a USD220 asp as mean.

Based on above (based on 1.3 billion share) if we estimate :

(0.745 + 2)/2 x4 qtr = RM 5.48 (RM 2.74 ex bonus)

PE now is only 21/ 5.48 =3.8 

We believe most glove counter especially the big ones are going into single or 10+ PE going forward if price is not moving in tandem with profit growth.This will be grossly undervaluation sector wide and will attract more funds .

For more info on Topglove PAT and Glove company PAT relationship with share price. Here is another deeper analysis.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/glovesvsvaccine/2020-09-04-story-h1513318067-Gloves_Top_Glove_Supermax_Harta_Kossan_it_s_all_about_PAT.jsp

DEMAND SIDE FORCAST

From the below forcast , ASP will peak  in Jun 2021. slowly tapering off into 2022.

This is under a conservative scenario of vaccination is working and WHO declaring pandemic is over. 

While we wish it is true. The latest development of possible ADE respond from Reinfection and Rushed Vaccine Hazard had topped many headlines. On top of that Distribution and Vaccination will probably take years to complete. Not to say acceptance of a 40-50% efficacy vaccine especially in the US and Euro is not exceptionally high.

Since NO ONES SAFE UNTIL EVERYONES SAFE. Control of Pandemic will be slowed when theres distribution difficulty as well. If there is continue resurgence in 2021 winter time again. The below graph might not be accurate and ASP price will be sustained and continue into 2023.

Why we think ASP will be sustained on the high side even into 2022/23  are discussed in our previous blog:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-18-story-h1512394632-VACCINE_OR_WITHOUT_GLOVE_STOCK_RALLY.jsp

SUPPLY SIDE FORCAST

 

From the above table we can see that excess capacity is gradual and it will only reach equilibrium in 2022.

Take note that Capacity expansion above shown is on normal expansion speed. No one can be sure whether there will be any set back. 

During current exploding demand. Both materials and suppliers had JUST beginning to embark on 100% increase in their capacity. This will slow down the capacity rollout worldwide because it takes even longer time to build a new material plant like NBR plant.

Just an example:

The latest NBR plant by PETRONAS and LG will only complete in  mid 2023 earliest if it works out smoothly. Topglove have plan to build NBR plant, but is still in planning stage only. So capacity rollout is not as simple as building a new glove plant. All supplies side must keep up in line as well. As all material and supplies are expanding at normal growth rate precovid. Expecting them to expand up by 100% in short notice is unthinkable citing the NBR plant as example.

According to industrial source, NBR shortage is getting acute now and major supplies are all booked by regular players. But even with early booking , they are not enough even for the big 4. They might need to resort to producing 2.5g -3g light gloves to reduce consumption. Alternative is to turn to rubber gloves to make up volume. That is the same for China and Thailand glove company, NBR and other supplies shortage are slowing down capacity expansion.

In other words, ASP is not coming down and instead be increasing due to serious material shortage and slower capacity expansion. Not many are aware of this, so we are here to enlighten everyone.

In regarding to new comers . We can say they will be at the lowest priority to be allocated the limited supplies due to huge early booking by all the big boys. They probably has to pay for spot rate for Materials and supplies just like the new glove buyers from gloves company. Even with spot order, they will still suffer insufficient nbr to produce enough nitrile gloves cost effectively.

Newcomer will not be able to produce 2.5g-3g gloves. Big 4 took many years to reach there. When small /new player failed to deliver, quality issue, financial issue, FDA failure will come. It will make big4/small4 even stronger. 

The final outcome of those small newcomer will probably be "built to be acquired" modal when they are unable to produce profitably n reliably. Their only fate is to sell it away at the BIG BOYS preference price . This had happened in the past and it will happen again. 

Note: Not all gloves company are the same especially the newcomers.

 

POST COVID DEMAND AND SCENARIO.

 

From the above chart . Glove usage per capital in Brazil, Asia , China, India  are very low in the range of 4 - 24 VS 80 -150 in developed countries like US and EU.

We dont think they will remain so low  post COVID. There are ABUNDANCE  of UPSIDE DEMAND from many other countries worldwide after this pandemic experience. As many expert expressed that COVID is here to stay permanently. We have to live with it.

And prevention measures will not go away and same as to stockpiling for PPE.

 

The Consortium of Independent Analyst wish to express here is that there is more future to Supermax for the coming quarters due to its OBM advantage which allows them for dynamic pricing  and super margin being capitalised .

We believe other Glove stock with exceptional performance in operation and profits will be OP as well during and post this unusual time.  

 

Side Note:

1. Although we believe there is a super bull run in the future. It doesnt mean it will go up in straight line. Up and down are expected during the long up trend.

2. This is the first time the world is going into Winter season with Covid 19 at 23 million base. Last time we had 0 case at this juncture. So the worst had yet to come.

3. Who is the foreign fund that bought 4+% of Supermax at 22.14 on friday 28th Aug?

4. If you like our post please share it out. Hit the LIKE button !!! 

 


Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.

CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.

 
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Labels: TOPGLOV, SUPERMX

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
TOPGLOV 8.70 -0.20 (2.25%) 33,599,300 
SUPERMX 9.27 -0.20 (2.11%) 25,721,600 

  155 people like this.
 
freetospeak i am not dr fong ...if i am dr fong wont be here talk crap already.
04/09/2020 3:13 PM
Shanjing777 Thanks freetospeak. Good analysis. We need people like you in this forum tht talk abt facts, evidence and figures. Furthermore like the analyst says most orders are already lock in for at least till 2Q 2021 fearing another round of outbreak. Orders lock in means part of it has been paid. Money in the pocket. So hold tight, sit back and wait.
04/09/2020 3:27 PM
see2sea fantastic analysis..very like!!! so deep until most of the local retailers are too shallow to understand the term investment. they will need more time to digest and understand the real situation..coz most of them are gamblers.

Thanks again freetospeak sifu & CiA Team! RESPECT!

I still dumb dumb hold..LOL
04/09/2020 3:38 PM
Invest to greatness $$$$ @glove_bubble.....I almost agree with your bubble indicator if you can provide some more data to back up your claim. as we are open to comment thanks.

-----------------

GLOVE_BUBBLE MY SINCERE ADVISE PLEASE DO NOT KEEP IN YOUR FANTASIAL...GLOVE BUBBLE HAVE GONE BURST SINCE LAST MONTH...BIG4 HARTA AND KOSSAN APPEARS BIG TOP...ANY REBOUNDS TODAY OR LATER SHOULD BE LAST TIMING TO SELL. 2 CENTS
04/09/2020 1:31 PM
04/09/2020 3:49 PM
25yrsinvestor Don't get trap with such fake prove... Just don't buy it until it really limit up
04/09/2020 4:24 PM
25yrsinvestor Play safe
04/09/2020 4:24 PM
stamp326 Tq @freetospeak ... am more confident to continue holding
04/09/2020 4:50 PM
supersaiyan3 Nice one, well written.

Calvin also so supportive, bravo!!!!

That's pretty much what i predicted. I think Glove will continue to rise for 4 years.
04/09/2020 4:56 PM
ThePacifier I Guess analyst is busy copying this As reference . Good job freetospeak!
04/09/2020 4:59 PM
ballsapart My turn to express my appreciation to Sifu “freetospeak” n CIA Team for this enlightening research n paper. Thank u.
04/09/2020 5:41 PM
liewtz06 Another great insightful content from Sifu Freetospeak and CIA Team, Thank you very much for sharing!
04/09/2020 6:05 PM
inPeace Excellent freetospeak, you are always impressive
04/09/2020 6:41 PM
arman70 Don't u ever consider that other countries are building glove factories as well? Glove manufacturing is not rocket science.
04/09/2020 8:31 PM
Targeted Very-very good info, especially the material shortage explanation and how big 4 hv advantage.
04/09/2020 9:03 PM
Goldgent Marvelous.
Your previous article 'SUPERMAX - OBM - X !!! REVALUATION IMMINENT !!!' on 21 Aug 20 boosted up the share in 5 trading days......but unfortunately turned down by Uncle Koon lame duck article.
I believe this new article will power up the share again.
04/09/2020 9:59 PM
Observers I come from medical background.
Glove people are scared of Vaccine.
I always tell people around, drop of gloves is for a while when vaccine news come, when the vaccine is available, theres a huge surge of gloves demands than never before because each gloves are required for one vaccine given (doctors and nurses are not allow to wear the same gloves for next patient if there's a injection given before on the same pair of gloves).
There are 7.8 billion people in the world, u can imagine how much gloves are required. After a while, gloves stock will thrive again along way with vaccine. By that time, Glove people will smile to the end and welcome any vaccine new. The more vaccine news, the higher the glove stock will surge.
04/09/2020 10:09 PM
edgedumbledore Great and insightful analysis, properly supported by facts and figures, great job CIA! Thanks for providing valuable information to the real investors when all the naysayers are all here shouting brainlessly.
04/09/2020 10:18 PM
newbie8080 Trump’s vaccine chief says unlikely one is ready by November

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the chief advisor for Operation Warp Speed, the White House’s vaccine program, said in an interview with NPR that a vaccine is unlikely to be ready and introduced into the population before November.

Slaoui’s comments come after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention directed state health officials to be prepared to distribute a vaccine by Nov. 1. The move raised concerns that the date was tied to the approaching Nov. 3 presidential election. Slaoui said the date is for planning purposes and that “it’s the right thing to do to be prepared in case.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/coronavirus-live-updates.html
04/09/2020 10:38 PM
JBond007 Freetospeak you are really our Top Gun.
Added more Supermax shares today.
04/09/2020 10:56 PM
macquarie whatever your real name is, i am here to support you
05/09/2020 12:34 AM
jibbie good article. I should have kept my supermax. Now only got kossan
05/09/2020 8:38 AM
BALANCE_VIEW arman70..... u are right, BUT demand 4 gloves next few yrs will way outstripped supply.

Discusssion with China 2 largest manufacturers revealed that at most they can increase capacity is less than 10bil pieces per yr, despite the claim that it is not rocket science. Their increase will easily be absorbed by domestic consumption as currently China usage is one lowest intop 30 countries in world together with India.

Also, gloves need certification. Couple with current trade war, there is serious doubt that Europe n USA will biy frm China suppliers.
05/09/2020 9:32 AM
stock_investor World recorded 290k daily cases today. Projected cases will break 300k next week and demand for gloves is going to spike in fall and winter which is starting from september to february. wave 5 is coming !!!
05/09/2020 9:36 AM
johnny cash Very good article
05/09/2020 9:41 AM
Jackthejeep Sorry I did not study well, is this guy a professional licensed analyst or some professor?

Or just keyboard warrior who all in even underwear in gloves?
05/09/2020 9:59 AM
nikko88 Good analysis and good article , worth to read . Just hold tight .
05/09/2020 10:02 AM
freetospeak jackthe deep...i am the keyboard warrior who all in underwear in gloves...lol...everyone knows that
05/09/2020 10:27 AM
Bull13 Don't forget . The are risks involved ..
1. WIndfall Tax
2. Govt may set minimum price for rubber to protect the smallholders

The 2 factors can derail your so called bull run and bring the party to a stop.
05/09/2020 10:47 AM
freetospeak 1.ther wont be windfall tax. no country in the world impose windfall tax on gloves. malaysia wont b the first.
2.minimum price on rubber is good news. lesser cost more profit for rubber gloves.
05/09/2020 11:24 AM
stockraider Already peak demand mah..!!

Increasing capacity & intense competition mah..!!

Vaccine coming loh....!!

Selling price already started tapering loh..!!

Run when u still have some limited time to act mah..!!


Posted by IronShirt > Sep 5, 2020 11:21 AM | Report Abuse

If you want to used 3-4 times TP is a better product, but most Glove are same day throw or one time used....lower spec. can sell very well in India and Africa / Latin America
05/09/2020 11:25 AM
freetospeak peak demand ah...we haven gone thru the 1st winter of covid...pandemic jus start.
05/09/2020 11:27 AM
freetospeak peak demand only come when theres no need for vaccine...NOT on appearance of vaccine.
05/09/2020 11:29 AM
stockraider It already coming...thats why gloves owner already selling mah...!!

Already peak demand mah..!!

Increasing capacity & intense competition mah..!!

Vaccine coming loh....!!

Selling price already started tapering loh..!!

Run when u still have some limited time to act mah..!!

Posted by freetospeak > Sep 5, 2020 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

peak demand only come when theres no need for vaccine...NOT on appearance of vaccine.
05/09/2020 11:32 AM
stocktrade101 Yes, invest in gloves but don't put all your eggs in glove basket only.
05/09/2020 4:52 PM
sensonic UNCLE K SEEM HINTING COMFORT GLOVES
05/09/2020 6:49 PM
yswong2587 Very detail analysis, thanks writer for your hard work to provide important messages and charts happy investing.
05/09/2020 9:21 PM
calvintaneng Topglove boss already stated

Best is yet to come for next 7 qtr results till year 2022

1. Topglove selling to over 200 nations worldwide mostly to Governments
They know more about Gloves than anyone else on this earth

2. Gloves are preSOLD with 50% Cash upfront so future 7 qtrs profits are LOCKED IN.

3. NO ONE CAN AFFORD TO CANCEL FOR 2 REASONS

I) Too costly as 50% cash burnt
ii) As an insurance in case Vaccine failed
Not all people want to be injected with Vaccine
Even face mask also they rebel. Some even rebel Mco lockdown like in Australia now
So the rebel will cause Covid 19 to spike

4. For Top 8 Genuine Glove stocks they will all report Fantastic , Incremental, Solid PROFITS IN THEIR BALANCE SHEETS FROM SPECTACULAR QUARTER AFTER SPECTACULAR QUARTERS ALL THRU YEAR 2020, 2021 AND WELL INTO 2022 EVEN WITH VACCINE ON.

THESE ARE REAL PROFITS ROLLING IN

5. AS RESULTS TURN FROM GOOD TO GREAT AND TO SPECTACULAR THE FUTURE FORWARD P/E OF GENUINE GLOVES LIKE TOPGLOVE, SUPERMAX AND HLT WILL SHRINK TO SINGLE DIGIT

FOR ALL OTHER NEW GLOVE ENTITIES LIKE ANZO, MQTECH, MSCM, INIX AND OTHER GLOVE WANABES THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO SHOW

ALL CON JOBS AT BEST

WHY SO?

ANSWER

1. THERE IS NO GLOVE HAND MOLDS FOR NEW PLAYERS AS ALL PREBOOK AND PRESOLD

2.MR KEN OF HLT PUCHONG FACTORY STATED IT WILL NOW TAKE UP TO 9 MONTHS TO SET UP NEW GLOVE DIPPER LINERS.

THAT IS NOT INCLUDING FACTORY AND HAND MOLD. THAT MEANS EARLIEST IS JUNE 2021

3. KSSC PEOPLE SAID THE SAME THING AND THEY SAID FURTHER

"EVEN IF GLOVE FACTORY IS UP BY JUNE 2021 THERE IS NOW NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY OF GLOVE CHEMICAL IN MALAYSIA"

SO CAN EXPECT DELAY TILL END 2021

4. THEN GOT 3 MORE HURDLES

1) MEDICAL EXAM GLOVE NEED APPROVAL FROM MALAYSIA GOVT

2. IF PASSED FIRST STEP THEN MUST ALSO GET APPROVAL FROM FOREIGN GOVT LIKE USA

3. FINALLY BY JUNE 2022 AFTER ALL GIVEN GREEN LIGHT

WHO WILL TRUST THESE UNKNOWN NEW GLOVE SELLERS?

HL RUBBER INDUSTRIES HAVE BEEN PASSED OFF AS A FRONT TO SELL TRUSTED MEDICAL EXAM GLOVES!

SEE. EVEN IN THIS TIME OF GREAT NEED THESE UNKNOWN GLOVES GOT TO HIDE BEHIND HL RUBBER TO SELL?

So can forget about all other upcoming new gloves companies

They are failures right from the very start if you just checked with es_ceramic people, check with Hlt or kssc people

No wonder Mscm insiders sold out their shares just like other fake gloves wannabes

All their future qtr results will be negative

All These

Topglove
Supermax
Careplus
Hlt

Will show very powerful earnings going forward

So stay invested

Buy more while other ignoramus sell in shivering fear

Sustain your patience great movements take time to develop

Malaysian Rubber Gloves are still world champion for the next decade and we'll into 2050
05/09/2020 11:15 PM
chrischinmy https://www.thestartv.com/v/widespread-use-of-covid-19-vaccine-not-expected-until-mid-2021

The market is short of supply at least till mid-2021.
05/09/2020 11:38 PM
Jackthejeep https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/russian-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-no-serious-side-effects-lancet-says.html
05/09/2020 11:53 PM
muniandy52 after getting all the valid and useful information from some good analytical views from our forum, it is indeed the best time to make a good decision on glove counters. best luck.
06/09/2020 12:24 AM
freetospeak Thamk you sifu Calvin for the additional input.
06/09/2020 7:39 AM
stamp326 Tq @calvintaneng for the very informative facts
06/09/2020 7:41 PM
Jackthejeep More like bullshet haha
07/09/2020 4:44 PM
Jackthejeep I was right hahahaha
08/09/2020 12:55 PM
Jackthejeep Hi, I hope the thread starter will be able to forgive himself after cheating and lying so many newbies onto the express train to Holland.

Those who got red in their portfolio due to this blog, please dont be angry at me, sometimes people can appear to be "expert" but they just talk many so that you can help push his share price up and take his tickets
08/09/2020 5:39 PM
iambillionaireinusd still dropping like hell
09/09/2020 1:17 PM
iambillionaireinusd @calvintaneng why HLT and careplus will show very powerful earnings going forward ??
09/09/2020 1:21 PM
Jackthejeep The author had quietly sold all his shares and will now disappear slowly, you guys who followed him are dumber than donkeys

In share market, there is no "kindness", only intentions to sell their shares at highest price
09/09/2020 11:43 PM
Jackthejeep Dear shareholders, holding gold or holding bullshet? Can the author save us?
10/09/2020 3:57 PM
investortrader88 Tks for yr valuable sharing freetospeak.
25/09/2020 8:30 AM


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